BOB GARFIELD: As the War Stories columnist for Slate, it is Fred Kaplan’s job to have opinions about the most intractable military issues of our day. For example, June 15th, quote: “After its fraudulent election, Obama should harden his stance with Iran.” July 21st: “The remarkable vote to kill the F-22 and what it means for America’s military future.” September 17th: “Obama’s smart decision to scuttle Bush’s European missile defense plan.” Kaplan doesn't typically shy from clear, direct language, and so we were surprised by his column from last Monday, titled Confessions of an Uncertain Columnist: My Mixed Feelings about the War in Afghanistan. After years of being mostly - certain, Kaplan, who I should mention is Brooke’s husband, admitted to readers that when it comes to Afghanistan he just doesn't know. And he joins us once again. Hey Fred, welcome back to the show.

FRED KAPLAN: Thanks.

BOB GARFIELD: You’re not just some untrained journalistic kibitzer on these subjects. You have been in your past a defense policy analyst and are academically expert in these areas. What is it about the Afghanistan circumstance that is just so perplexing to you?

FRED KAPLAN: The ambivalence stems from this: On the one hand, if we withdrew from Afghanistan it would be a disaster, and not just to Afghanistan and not just to Pakistan but, given the rhetorical support we've given to this war in the past, just to pull out now, I don't see why any other country would want or believe any promises or support from us in the future. That’s on the one hand. On the other hand, we really haven't had much experience at fighting this kind of war and, in fact, nobody has had much experience at fighting this kind of war. I've talked with some of the more enthusiastic analysts and advocates of counterinsurgency strategy and I have asked them, well, you know, name a couple of places where counterinsurgency strategies have really succeeded in less than a decade and that haven't involved a level of sheer brutality that would not be countenanced today. And they have a hard time answering that question.

BOB GARFIELD: How about this one: If we go in and do improve things in the next couple of years, is there any way to reasonably expect that we'll be able to keep that as the status quo, as opposed to having the Taliban eventually reenter the scene and terrorize the country and its very, very fragile political infrastructure?

FRED KAPLAN: Exactly. Well, one good bit of news is that the people in charge of fighting this war, and I mean from the top down, do understand all the complexities. This is why, for example, General Petraeus has long talked about the need to turn some Taliban fighters, that a lot of the people who are allying themselves with the Taliban are, in fact, doing it for the money or out of tribal loyalties or because their cousin got blown up in an airstrike, and that some of these people can be reconciled to support our side in a war against the Taliban. There is a subtler understanding. That said, you know, just because our strategists are very smart, strategy is only part of winning a war. There are just a lot of uncertainties about whether we can do this at an acceptable cost and in an acceptable amount of time and, as you put it, to make the success endure.

BOB GARFIELD: Let's get back to the column-writing part of all of this. As I picked up your column, I expected you to attack, let's just say, the counterinsurgency question, about, you know, whether we can achieve the same kind of gains in Afghanistan that we did among the Sunnis in Iraq, or maybe I expected you to look at the kind of Vietnamization of Afghan security apparatus and to ponder whether we could really train Afghan soldiers to continue the fight. But instead, we've got kind of an 800-word shrug.

FRED KAPLAN: More like 1300 word.

BOB GARFIELD: Well, I've got to say, Fred, it read like 800. Good for you. [LAUGHS]

FRED KAPLAN: [LAUGHS] Well, it’s not so much a shrug. I mean, there’s real anguish here, quite honestly, because, I mean, I do understand that people expect someone in my position to really come up with a position and to defend it. But, you know, I've written a lot of columns about Afghanistan which sort of begin - if President Obama wants to immerse himself more deeply into Afghanistan, then he should do the following things. But I had willfully evaded the question of whether he should put more troops in or whether putting more troops in is or is not a good idea. And, you know, I finally realized that I had to deal with this. You know, a couple of friends had said, you know, I've read your columns and I'm not quite sure where you come out on this. And [LAUGHS] you know, I said, well, that’s a very astute observation [BOB LAUGHS] because I'm not really sure myself.

BOB GARFIELD: You’re kind of shamed into this mea uncertainta.

FRED KAPLAN: Well, I owed it to myself, as well as to my readers, to really think this through and see if I can come out one way or the other, and I found out, no, I'm just sort of unalterably ambivalent about the basic question.

BOB GARFIELD: All right, now, maybe I was unfair in characterizing your 1300-word piece as a shrug, but it was certainly ambivalent. And I've got to ask you whether you think you as a columnist can continue on this tack or whether you’re going to have to seize on some of the particulars and be the Fred Kaplan that we know and love.

FRED KAPLAN: [LAUGHS] Well look, this column dealt with the question, am I in favor of pulling out or going in deeper. That’s it. Okay, the decision has now been made. We're going in deeper. So I'm dealing with that reality now, and my columns will be devoted to questions about does what we're doing make sense. Does this make sense in terms of Obama’s strategy? Does Obama’s strategy make sense in terms of the evolving situation? So no, I'm not going to be shedding tears and shrugging or pouring out my heart or anguishing in every column. But, you know, almost everybody in my position that I know is ambivalent about this, whether or not they admit it. And I - and I guess I felt that I just sort of had to admit it.

BOB GARFIELD: Well, Fred, as always, thanks very much.

FRED KAPLAN: Thank you.

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BOB GARFIELD: Fred Kaplan is the War Stories columnist for Slate Magazine. This is On the Media from NPR.