Weather Hype



March 10, 2001



BROOKE GLADSTONE: Welcome back to On the Media. I'm Brooke Gladstone.

BOB GARFIELD: And I'm Bob Garfield. [DRAMATIC STORM MUSIC UNDER] All the conditions were right -- a huge storm moving northeast with lots of moist gulf air; a vast front of arctic cold moving south, all to meet on the eastern seaboard coming hurricane-forces winds with two feet of snow. [INCREASINGLY DRAMATIC READING] It was going to be a blizzard of historic proportions from Boston to Washington, D.C. But despite nearly a week of hysterical warnings on TV news-- [MUSIC HEIGHTENS AND THEN CUTS] it really didn't turn out that way. The blizzard of Ought One for the major cities of the east coast was a dusting. One place where this storm did hit, however, was Albany, New York where meteorologist Howie Altschule nailed his forecast. He joins us now to speculate about how his big city colleagues failed to nail theirs. Mr. Altschule, lay some meteorology on us.

HOWIE ALTSCHULE: Well what was supposed to happen is the storm was supposed to move exactly along the perfect path that would be far enough east to keep all the precipitation snow, but as is the case so often, the storms don't exactly go the way we initially think, and therefore the forecast did not pan out for a big blizzard as it was hyped up to be. Rather it turned to rain for much of the day and then a little bit of snow afterward.

BOB GARFIELD:If the conditions suggest, according to the computer models, the possibility of a storm of historical significance, what responsibility do meteorologists have to give us some sort of advance warning and what should be the nature of that kind of warning.

HOWIE ALTSCHULE: Well I don't think there's anything wrong with starting to mention what the potential could be as far as strong gusty winds, very heavy snowfall in excess of six inches or something if that's what you think is going to happen. Going to predict one to three feet of snow as some, some stations did four days before the event started or three days before the event started is a little bit extreme in my opinion.

BOB GARFIELD: Does your audience spike in the advance of a big storm?

HOWIE ALTSCHULE:Well I think that's only natural. I think the bigger the situation, the more people are going to tune in and want to see what's happening.

BOB GARFIELD: Do you see a trend of over-hyping, of Chicken Little constantly saying the sky is going to fall?

HOWIE ALTSCHULE: Yes, I do!

BOB GARFIELD: And what do you suppose is the reason for this?

HOWIE ALTSCHULE:It could, it could be a number of reasons. It could be giving the viewer what they want. It could be-- also along the same lines it could be to boost ratings. Most meteorologists know that you have to be careful and try not to blow things out of proportion, and I hope most stations would keep that in mind and not sensationalize things too much.

BOB GARFIELD:Well did you happen to see any of the coverage from Washington to New York City to Boston? TV WEATHERMAN: ...but look at the duration of this from Sunday afternoon all the way until Tuesday morning -- a 36 hour period of punishing winds along the coast and heavy snowfall, especially inland. Once again we present to you Eyewitness to Winter Storms. We hope you enjoy the show.

HOWIE ALTSCHULE: Yes, I [LAUGHS] - I saw on Friday night one of the networks starting talking about a blizzard of historic proportions, one to three feet in the mid-Atlantic; 75 mile an hour winds, hurricane-force winds, flooding, the storm of the century - even though the century is only [LAUGHS] a couple of months old so to speak--I, I got their drift that there was going to be some huge storm, and if I were not a meteorologist - in the general public - I think I would start being concerned if I didn't know about weather and what really would happen.

BOB GARFIELD:Well I can tell you that here in Washington people were concerned after about four or five days of hearing about the Blizzard of Ought One -- the supermarket shelves were bare -the, the whole region was in a panic. The, the coverage was absolutely hysterical. Have, have you ever seen this kind of local news coverage where four or five days in advance of a storm they're already telling people to gird for the worst?

HOWIE ALTSCHULE: Well you know-- I can't say that I've seen that type of definitiveness - like a hurricane, for instance, coming our way - you know they always have some sort of rationalization - say if it stays on the same track, hurricane watches or hurricane warnings will be put into effect for Miami so monitor the situation. I think they should have taken that approach with this situation, as well, but it seemed like there was a little more hype because the computer models were forecasting the same thing consistently day after day, so-- I would say that the coverage was a little too extreme and that the viewers took it-- took it to heart and really prepared for the worst.

BOB GARFIELD:So if you're a news director, when do you trot out the Blizzard of Ought One graphic and that special voiceover guy with the unbelievably deep voice?

HOWIE ALTSCHULE: [LAUGHS] I couldn't answer for a news director, I think because I'm trying to be so responsible as a meteorologist and do a good job that I, I may have different opinions than some other news directors or-- ...snow when they want a meteorologist to go and, go into the field and do some live reporting, you know it's one or two inches of snow in, in your area -- what's the big deal? Unless it's Texas, of course, or, or Southern Florida -then that would be a big deal - but here in Albany it's wintertime. We expect these things.

BOB GARFIELD: And I'm just curious. What did happen in Albany? Did you get socked?

HOWIE ALTSCHULE: Well, yeah! Luckily our forecast was perfect!

HOWIE ALTSCHULE:...Monday and we're talking at least a few inches the way I see right now; we'll fine-tune that during the course of the weekend. Scattered snow showers tonight - maybe an inch or snow. Not very heavy snowfall at all....

BOB GARFIELD: Feeling pretty pleased with yourself Monday afternoon were you?

HOWIE ALTSCHULE:Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. With all the hype and once I heard all the flak [LAUGHS] that all the other meteorologists were taking or other weatherpeople I should say down, down south, I think I was pretty happy with, with our forecast because it was such a serious storm situation and the computer models were all over the place and-- I made the right call.

BOB GARFIELD: Howie Altschule, thanks so much for joining us.

HOWIE ALTSCHULE: Thank you!

BOB GARFIELD: Howie Altschule is the meteorologist for WNYT in Albany, New York.