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Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer on WNYC. As the number of Omicron cases continues to rise, there's a calculus people are having to make right now, what to do or not do this weekend ahead of holiday gatherings that you're more committed to like with your core family members on Christmas for many of you. This coming weekend is the last weekend before Christmas, meaning you might find yourself debating in your own head whether to go to an office holiday party, or gathering with friends before getting ready to celebrate with family, maybe even with elderly relatives.

Listeners, call up right now and tell us what you're doing or deciding about at the last minute not to do or debating it in your head for this weekend. 212 433 WNYC 212 433 9692 or tweet @BrianLehrer. As your calls are coming in I'll note that not just individuals, but also institutions are changing plans right now, because of the new pandemic spikes canceling what they consider non-essential gatherings. NYU just yesterday became the latest college to make that decision. It applies to events both on and off-campus, December graduation ceremonies, and other things. Other universities on the East Coast, we'll cite a few, and in the Midwest are taking similar precautions.

Even the White House is scaling back its holiday party plans now, they say. What's your institution doing if you're with an institution? What are you doing individually or debating in your own head whether to do or not do that you were going to do this weekend? 212 433 WNYC 212 433 9692 or tweet @BrianLehrer. With us now Sharon Otterman who covers healthcare and the pandemic for the New York Times Metro desk. Hi, Sharon. Welcome back to WNYC.

Sharon Otterman: Hi Brian. It's so great to be here.

Brian Lehrer: Can you start with the NYU story? What did they announce yesterday?

Sharon Otterman: NYU announced yesterday, as you said, that they were canceling all non-essential gatherings like Christmas parties and study groups, any athletic competitions. There was a graduation that was canceled that day. The reason was that they were seeing an unusually large surge or spike in their cases. It's important to remember that this is in a nearly 100% vaccinated population. I think they're 99% vaccinated on that campus.

Brian Lehrer: I see that you tweeted out some new New York State stats on COVID. More than 5,000 new positive cases reported yesterday and 27 deaths in New York City in one day. You wrote that "Generally, the State presages the city's numbers because the State reports based on day of tests, and the city then backdates to the date of the sample. The 27 deaths in the city in one day from COVID is higher than in many months." You wrote. Can you put that in context? [beep]

Sharon Otterman: Yes. Statewide there were 13,000 cases reported yesterday from the State. That is back to where we were last January. I think we all remember where we were in January. That 5,000 number you're going to see that spread over several days according to the city, there's 3,700 new cases per day, which is approximately back to where we were when we were coming down off the winter spike in early April. These are very high caseloads. These are much higher than anything we've seen since the last surge or the end of the last surge.

I don't know about your life Brian, but in my life, people are testing positive who have just been going about their normal vaccinated activities like going to an art gallery opening or just doing their normal life. Maybe they did take their mask off while they were drinking some wine in an art gallery but did not expect to get sick. There's a feeling on social media and elsewhere that people who are vaccinated are now getting sick. A lot of these cases are mild, but it's definitely adding to that feeling in the city that we're watching what's happening in London. We're watching cases hit record numbers there. We're wondering how big is this wave here going to get?

Brian Lehrer: You wrote, "Need a rapid PCR test in New York City? Hot commodity right now." What's the story with testing.

Sharon Otterman: If you walk through the city, you will see lines. They're not everywhere, but you'll see lines outside of CityMDs. Sometimes I think that's because CityMD is a trusted purveyor of tests. There are city sites that are run by the city where you might not have to wait. There's been obviously a surge testing as people try to figure out if they tested positive. There's also some confusion because a lot of people are vaccinated. They're not sure, "What should I do if somebody I had close contact with who was vaccinated just got sick, and I'm also vaccinated? Should I get a test or should I just stay home?" There's some confusion I think too about this moment.

Brian Lehrer: Back to the colleges we mentioned NYU. Even before four NYU canceled non-essential events, Cornell actually moved all final exams online and canceled all in-person events. Were these cancellations at NYU, Cornell, I could go down the list from your article, you also wrote about Middlebury and Princeton and others, simply precautionary measures, or were cases troublingly high already on those campuses?

Sharon Otterman: At Cornell, they had 900 cases in a week. Again, this is a population that is almost 100% vaccinated. These were levels that they had never seen. They'd never been to code red, which was their scary term for the highest level of caution. They went to close all of these activities. It's always so interesting to see the difference between some of these recommendations and how regular New Yorkers are going about their lives.

In the NYU note that went out yesterday, they're advising vaccinated students to only eat for 15 minutes, and then put their masks back on, and stay socially distanced while eating. You could see that's the level of caution that they're taking given what they're seeing in this picture. We are in where everybody's going still out to restaurants and shows. There's just all kinds of advice going on here. Yes, these college campuses were seeing increases in cases that they found troubling.

Brian Lehrer: With these stories that you're telling and these stats that are emerging, for you as a healthcare reporter covering the pandemic locally, what do you think we're in for? Are we going back to movie theaters and Broadway and other things shutting down again?

Sharon Otterman: I think everybody on the political end is very against shutdowns. I don't think there's going to be a rush to shut down unless we are seeing our healthcare system overwhelmed. Now Upstate, they're already seeing their healthcare system overwhelmed partially, because of the lack of staffing and partially, because of rising cases. In New York City, we still have a lot of capacity in our healthcare system. I don't think we're headed for a shutdown in the near term. I think that though people are just in this moment where there might be a lot of mild COVID around among the vaccinated and the boosted, and are trying to decide what that means in their own personal lives.

Are they going to go about their lives and just assume they might get mild COVID as a boosted individual? Hopefully, it will inspire more people to get boosted. The city doesn't have a percentage of how many New Yorkers are boosted, but they say 1.5 million additional doses have been given. If were I don't know 8 million New Yorkers and 6 million adults. That's about 25% of New Yorkers have a boost. These are really important to fight these coming variants. I think people are going to realize that if they haven't already, as they see people who thought that they were vaccinated and wouldn't get even a mild case too.

Brian Lehrer: With scientists scrambling to figure out what Omicron is and what it isn't, there's new data coming out every day. Just since we did our last show, Dr. Fauci announced yesterday that if you've gotten the Pfizer, and I think this also applies to Moderna vaccine, just the first two doses, the effectiveness against Omicron is down to about 33% in terms of protecting you against getting symptoms at all. If you got boosted, your back way, way up where you were originally against Delta.

Sharon Otterman: Right. I think which again is not 100%. I think you go back up to 75% or 80%.

Brian Lehrer: Yes.

Sharon Otterman: All of which is to say you still have to take precautions. Even if you're a boosted individual, it's better if you're in an indoor public place, and now this is the rule, I hope everyone's following the rule, you should have a mask on. If you're around a vulnerable person, you should take some extra precautions. All of which to say is if your protection is only 75% or 80%, you do want to layer in something to help protect yourself.

Brian Lehrer: Listeners, my guest is Sharon Otterman who covers the pandemic for the New York Times, locally. We're inviting your calls on any decisions you're making about this coming weekend. Last weekend before Christmas, before maybe you're about to get together with family, maybe including elderly relatives. If you're canceling things, or if your workplace is canceling holiday parties in-person that were scheduled. We hear what some of these colleges and universities are doing. What are you doing? Core in Brooklyn, what are you doing? Hi. You're on WNYC.

Core: Oh, good morning.

Brian Lehrer: Hey there.

Core: Well, it is a thrill to be on your show. I wanted to share a small anecdote. I work for a big company. We had our big office party coming up that was supposed to be last night. I was most looking forward to the coconut shrimp. Party got canceled last minute, stayed home and made my own coconut shrimp for the first time.

[chuckling]

Brian Lehrer: Yes, but you had to eat alone, right?

Core: No. Girlfriend joined me. She helped me put out the one small fire in the kitchen, and then we both had the shrimp.

[laughter]

Core: No joke.

Brian Lehrer: I once did that making French fries. I thought that the way to test if the oil was hot enough was to put a little water in it. Don't do that. Core, thank you very much. Rebecca in Ridgewood, you're on WNYC. Hi, Rebecca.

Rebecca: Hi. I was calling because I am hosting a holiday market tomorrow night from 4:00 to 9:00. I invited 20 vendors. I just started getting emails where people are like, "Should we do this? Should we not do this?" A lot of people have invested time and energy into preparing their goods, so I just don't know whether to cancel. I'm going on Sunday, flying to visit my parents in New Mexico. I really don't want to get it [chuckles] two days before I'm supposed to fly.

Brian Lehrer: I can't tell you what's the right thing to do, but Sharon, are you hearing a lot of these kinds of stories, these kinds of dilemmas?

Sharon Otterman: Yes. Is your event outdoors?

Rebecca: Yes.

Sharon Otterman: I think that people who are vaccinated at outdoor events with masks on can continue doing them. You are vaccinated. I think the city would agree that it's these indoor events that are much more risky, even if now you're vaccinated, let's say, but not boosted or even if you're vaccinated and boosted. If there's one person in the room who has Omicron-- I was just listening in on Mount Sinai call that it's possible that even if you're vaccinated, everyone in the room can get Omicron. Again, these are events where you don't have masks on. If you layer in those protections and you're outdoors, I don't know, I would do it. [chuckles] No, I'm not a doctor, but I would do it.

Rebecca: [laughs] Thank you.

Brian Lehrer: Rebecca. Go ahead.

Rebecca: I think that we're going to try it.

Brian Lehrer: Good luck. Good luck with it. Stay safe. We're going to take a break. When we continue with Sharon Otterman, I'm going to ask how good the data is now on just how much more transmissible Omicron is? I'm saying Omicron. Is it really Omicron?

Sharon Otterman: I don't know.

Brian Lehrer: Omicron, Omicron. You know what we're talking about?

Sharon Otterman: Tomato, tomato.

Brian Lehrer: Tomato, tomato, Omicron, Omicron. What is it that's making it so much more transmissible or at least what are the data now about how much more transmissible it actually is than even the Delta variant? Stay with us and we'll take more of your calls about your holiday plans and more. Stay with us.

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Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer on WNYC, with Sharon Otterman from the New York Times who covers the pandemic for the New York Times Metro desk, pandemic in our immediate area. Sharon, is it possible to put into words simply just how much-- I know we could talk about spike proteins and everything else, and I don't mean that. Just how much more transmissible is it? If you're in a room, you were just saying, with vaccinated people, with Omicron or Omicron, you are fairly likely to get it if you're indoors and unmasked. Does that mean it aerosolizes more effectively, not only if somebody's breathing or talking or coughing right on you, but it spreads more in the air in the same room or what can you say?

Sharon Otterman: I am not a scientist. Sorry, I'm going to hesitate a little on the technical details of how it spreads. I think the scientists themselves are just learning. Some of that information is epidemiologists in London who are reporting what's happening at parties or gatherings that they are hearing about in a place where there is now a lot of Omicron, sorry, Omicron. I'm going to just go with Omicron as the pronunciation. I don't think that we know exactly. Well, put it this way, I don't know exactly why it's so transmissible.

Brian Lehrer: You can say, "I don't know." That's all right. Go ahead.

Sharon Otterman: What I see is that the signature of the Omicron case curve is that it's almost a straight vertical line. I believe it has something to do with more virus in the nose, which means that there's going to be more virus spreading. Omicron apparently, is less active in the lungs, which may be why some people are reporting more mild cases. I also think that, and every scientist you hear is saying this, "You shouldn't think that 'Oh, great. Now Omicron is just like the common cold, so we shouldn't worry about getting it.' "

Omicron can still have serious effects. Although most of us are vaccinated, and I hope we're all going to have mild cases if we get it. There will be vulnerable people out there who will have more serious cases that require hospitalization. They're also seeing that in London.

Brian Lehrer: By the way, I'm told that one former guest on the show before this variant broke, calls it Omicron, which makes me think, "I wish we could just take that O, and call it zero microns," because then it wouldn't exist.

Sharon Otterman: Yes, that would be great.

Brian Lehrer: Ian in Brooklyn, you're on WNYC. Hi, Ian.

Ian: Hi, Brian. Where do I start? First of all, to everyone listening, I'm a real caller. I'm not a plant. No one knows me. I'm double-vaxxed and I caught the virus. Around Thanksgiving, I started seeing a little sinus infection thing going on at Thanksgiving. Then I just separated myself and said, "Look, before I become a Debbie Downer, I'm just going to go in another room." Friday, here I am taking sinus medicine Flonase. It's still not going away. Now my mother had to fly to Jamaica on Tuesday. Saturday, she had to get her rapid. I said, "Carpe Diem while I'm here, let me just see if I can get something." Again, the doctor says, "Do you want to take a test?" I said, "Sure."

She comes back negative on her rapid. I come back positive on my rapid. I'm like, "What?" They said, "Okay, now you just got to wait for your PCR." I did the responsible thing. We're in an apartment. My wife is negative. My daughter is negative. My other daughter is negative. The other thing I want to promote, that city-run hotel thing, oh my God, what a program. I've never-- Oh, Brian-

Brian Lehrer: What's that? Which one?

Ian: -it is incredible. [unintelligible 00:18:27] where if you live in an apartment and you cannot isolate, you call the city. They will put you in a hotel for 7 to 10 days. Oh my God, what an incredible program that was.

Brian Lehrer: You did that?

Ian: Yes, I did that. The responsible thing was to do was to separate myself from my family. I told my wife, "You got to take out the garbage for a week and I'm gone." I did it for seven days. I am back home now. I'm back to work. The one thing I need to know, I need to fly out Friday. Is it too early to take a rapid? That's the other thing. My tickets are paid for.

Brian Lehrer: Wow. Is it too early to take a rapid? Well, today's Thursday. Tomorrow's Friday. What are the rules now, Sharon? Is it is it same day, or 24 hours which so it's okay now if the flight is in the morning tomorrow? Do you know how that's working?

Sharon Otterman: The rules have changed. I think they might differ depending on your destination. I would just check the Jamaican Consulate and the State Department, CDC home pages to make sure that you're in that window.

Brian Lehrer: Yes, and it is about the country that you're arriving in, isn't it?

Sharon Otterman: I think, yes. We are now requiring the US, for international arrivals, you have to be vaccinated and test negative within one day. You could take it the prior day if you were coming into the US. I'm not sure about flying out. It might depend on your destination.

Brian Lehrer: Ian, I hope that's helpful. Really interesting story and I hope you and everybody around is okay. Please call us again. How about those quarantine hotels? Have you reported on that?

Sharon Otterman: Yes. What's interesting is that, and this is again part of the confusion, if you're fully vaccinated, such as his-- I don't know. He didn't say that maybe his wife was fully vaccinated as well. Officially, that contact does not need to quarantine. It is a little confusing. I think that she didn't need to quarantine. The hotels have been probably an underutilized resource that anybody who's sick, even if you're vaccinated and sick, who needs to separate away from the people in their apartment can go for free to a hotel and stay there, as he said, 7 to 10 days. We should take advantage of that because, as he said, it is responsible and it will help prevent spread.

Brian Lehrer: Do they have enough rooms for the potential demand as Omicron spreads?

Sharon Otterman: I think so. As I said, it's been underutilized. For a long time, very few people were using these units. I think the city is committed to doing it. I know they have the space. I think the city would be happy actually if they ran into a capacity issue. [chuckles] They would have more rooms. They've been trying to promote this.

Brian Lehrer: Interesting. It's barely come up on the show. We should probably do a separate or some kind of closer look at that. It really hasn't gotten that much publicity. Melissa in Mercer County is going to be our last caller in this segment. Melissa, you're on WNYC. Hi, there.

Melissa: Hi, there. I just want to share an anecdote. We went to the office Christmas party last Thursday in the city. The company's put a lot of effort into FedEx in COVID tests. The rapid tests out to everyone. Everyone was meant to take the test at noon. Some people are in the office. Some people are working from home. Then when you get a negative, if you get a negative, you go to the party. Everybody was unmasked. I was extremely uncomfortable in the lead-up and while we were there.

It just felt like, on the one hand, you don't want to look the company gifts in the mouth and turn your back on going to the party they so generously threw. The pressure to be there without a mask on, even though everybody tested negative, was very difficult to negotiate in my mind. I'm still conflicted and not happy about it. [laughs]

Brian Lehrer: Thank you for articulating something that a lot of people have thought, whether or not they've said it out loud like you just did. Sharon, any thought on that? I wonder if Omicron is becoming apparently so transmissible if the standard of, "Okay, if everybody at our party has gotten a negative test within the last day then it's all right?" If even that standard has to change?

Sharon Otterman: I think these are all things that we're going to have to see. I saw in the news at the Manhattan DA, one of the units had a holiday party. They had 40 positive pieces out of it. It shut down one of the units of DA's office temporarily.

Brian Lehrer: We don't know if they were testing everybody on the day before?

Sharon Otterman: No. Yes. In terms of whether testing on rapid tests you take at home are approximately 85% accurate. There's a little bit of wiggle in there especially if you are asymptomatic. Nothing's going to be foolproof. Again, we're back to-- this is like earlier stages of the pandemic. This is why something like NYU is canceling non-essential activities. If you have to do something, are you willing to take a little bit of a risk that there's going to be COVID there? Yes.

If it's something you don't have to do, and I think that some of her anxiety about the holiday party, she's probably saying, "Socially, I feel required to do this. This is not a must-do, so why do I even have to accept any extra risk?" Again, it's this risk calculation that we wished would be over by now, but that we are still having to take before these events. Is there a little risk? Of course. Is it worth it?

This also reminds me of early in the pandemic. I remember in March 8th or 6th, that weekend before we shut down, I went to a children's birthday party. I remember thinking, "This is probably the last party we're going to go to." It was still in that window where it was still probably okay. I think as this wave approaches, we might be in that situation again where we're making literally day-by-day calculations. Today it feels okay, but tomorrow might not feel okay. It's, again, all these risk calculations that we have to make for ourselves.

Brian Lehrer: Where is that day on the calendar for each individual? Here we are again making day-by-day risk calculations. Sharon Otterman reporting on that for the New York Times. Thank you so much.

Sharon Otterman: Thanks, Brian. Thanks to the listeners too, great questions.

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