Brian Lehrer: It's The Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC. Good morning again, everyone. As you've probably been hearing in the news, on Tuesday, the environmental protection agency proposed two new rules that limit emissions from vehicles, impacting everything, from regular cars to tractor-trailers. The agency estimates that the moves could lead to pushing 67% of all sales of new cars, and what are called light-duty trucks, to go electric by the year 2032.

The change could reduce the equivalent of two full years of nationwide carbon emissions. While the conversion to electric vehicles will be met with a lot of obstacles, range anxiety, how long the batteries last, the high cost of current EVs, one issue to overcome is that Americans are mostly driving vehicles that qualify as trucks, rather than as cars. Trucks now make up the majority of registered vehicles in every state in the US.

New York became, to borrow our next guest's term, minority car, back in 2014. The last holdout was Rhode Island, which had more cars than trucks, until 2018. Joining us now, to discuss how trucks have overtaken American roadways and what the future might look like, is Andrew van Dam, columnist at the Washington Post's Department of Data. Andrew, thanks for coming on. Welcome to WNYC.

Andrew Van Dam: Thanks so much, Brian.

Brian Lehrer: The rise of trucks started slowly, I see, with Alaska, in 1989, and then all at once, during the great recession, you note. We'll get into some of the nuances in your piece, but what changed around 2010?

Andrew Van Dam: Well, the thing that changed, really, was the rise of the crossover. That was perhaps propelled by some behind-the-scenes things, such as changing emissions regulations or, more accurately, mileage regulations, that kind of thing, but really, that's when crossovers started to take off and lighter SUVs became the default for family carrying, rather than what--

Brian Lehrer: Oops. Did we lose your line? Are you there? Andrew, are you there? All right, we'll figure out what happened to Andrew's line and get him back here in a minute. In the meantime, listeners, has anyone recently made the switch from a small car to a bigger one? 212-433-WNYC. What were some of the reasons behind your decision? Did you need more space in your car? Did you have your fourth kid? Did you just find a good deal? Did you buy a bigger car to feel safer? Did changes in the emissions laws affect your decision?

Give us a call, 212-433-WNYC. 212-433-96924. Andrew van Damme, columnist at the Washington Post, in what they call their department of data, who is back with us now. Andrew, I don't know what happened to the line there, but I think we have you back. Hi.

Andrew Van Dam: Howdy, sorry about that.

Brian Lehrer: That's all right. You were starting to explain what happened around 2010, that there was an explosion of more cars that are classified as trucks than before.

Andrew Van Dam: That's what it was. Essentially, the rise in trucks, since 2010, has been entirely in the SUV category. A large majority of those have been in the crossover SUV category. That is, vehicles that are built on a car chassis, but happen to have just enough features on them so that they are technically a truck. Which, of course, is something that automakers prefer to do, in response to several incentives, because if you classify something as a truck, you know it gets better tariff protection.

It's exempt from the gas guzzler tax, which only applies to sedans. Of course, it falls under a different set of mileage standards.

Brian Lehrer: Wait, how could an SUV be exempt from gas guzzler taxes that apply to sedans?

Andrew Van Dam: That is such a good question. Man, I wish I knew the answer. It's one of those things where, maybe it made sense in '78, when you imposed the gas guzzler tax and you were trying to exempt work vehicles, you didn't want to hit America's hardworking farmers too hard, but now that everything is a truck, now that the thing that we take to the Walmart on the weekends is a truck, it seems a little bit silly.

Brian Lehrer: Let's take a phone call. When our line was disconnected for a minute, I invited people to call in and talk about their own conversions, perhaps, from sedans to SUVs, in recent years, when the politics of it is, "No, we should all be driving smaller cars if we can." Guess what? The lines have blown up. All ten lines are lit. Let's take our first caller. Mike, in West Orange. You're on WNYC. Mike, thanks so much for calling in. Hi there.

Mike: Hi there. Thanks for having me.

Brian Lehrer: You got a story for us?

Mike: Yes, my quick story is-- I've always driven smaller cars. I've always seen SUVs as being too large for what you probably need, and gas guzzlers. I have young kids. We recently had to get a new car, and I ended up getting a hybrid, small SUV, partly because the gas mileage is better, but the other real reason is that, with so many SUVs on the road, at least where I am, in Essex County, New Jersey, it's scary to not have an SUV.

You feel like if you're in a smaller car, they could be almost dangerous. I think that's a disappointment, but I am glad, on the other hand, that there are more small SUVs that have better gas mileage, or are electric.

Brian Lehrer: Mike, thank you very much. How much was your head nodding there, Andrew? Since I can't see you. During Mike's story, he even said he gets better gas mileage in his SUV than he did in his previous sedan.

Andrew Van Dam: Exactly. We do find with these new, smaller, built-on-a-car chassis SUVs, that SUV gas mileage today, and these are SUVs that are classified as trucks, is around an average of 24 miles a gallon, which is what sedans were getting twelve years ago, on average. This change has happened, it's pretty clearly a shift from people who are getting cars twelve years ago to getting better gas mileage SUVs now.

The thing that your guest mentioned that really made me start nodding like a maniac, like a bobblehead over here, was the safety issue. You notice how we see truck usage really take off in the past ten years? Part of that is what an economist told me was the prisoner's dilemma issue, where if all of us are out on the road driving Honda Civics, we're all pretty safe. The Civic is a very safe car. Everyone's driving these same light vehicles.

Brian Lehrer: Small car.

Andrew Van Dam: The instant someone gets a big old SUV or something, they are much safer than the rest of us. All of a sudden, the rest of us are at much bigger risk, because there's this big old car on the road. It becomes an arms race, where everybody starts getting bigger, bigger, safer vehicles.

Brian Lehrer: By the way, what you defined as a crossover vehicle, what's the definition of a crossover?

Andrew Van Dam: There is no technical definition, unfortunately, in the literature. Man, definitions for trucks are a little bit tough to pin down, but in general, the crossover is going to be an SUV built on a car chassis, and then it meets SUV standards by having a certain vehicle shape. It's slightly higher off the ground, it has that flatter front, and it perhaps has something like a four-wheel drive, which is going to help it meet the truck standard.

Brian Lehrer: Like a Honda CRV. Very, very popular car, right?

Andrew Van Dam: Oh, yes, the CRV, the Rav4, some of the most popular cars in America, but even something called a Toyota Corolla Cross is a SUV these days. That is a variant of Toyota Corolla. The archetypal, humble family sedan, is now even a light truck, by this definition.

Brian Lehrer: That is pretty hilarious. I remember the little, little Corollas that used to be out there. Barbara in Huntington, you're on WNYC. Hi, Barbara.

Barbara: Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my call. I loved my Prius, except in the snow. I caved in and got safety, bought a small SUV, and here I am.

Brian Lehrer: Here you are.

Barbara: Now I'm outdone by the big trucks, the bigger trucks, the real trucks. Your guest was quite enlightening about lessening the standards, and how the conversion to trucks took place. Thank you for that.

Brian Lehrer: Your Prius, was it an EV, and is your SUV?

Barbara: No, the Prius was a hybrid. I would consider getting another hybrid. I don't think, at this point, the infrastructure is there, for the EVs.

Brian Lehrer: Is your SUV a hybrid?

Barbara: No, unfortunately, it's not. I wish it was.

Brian Lehrer: You had the range anxiety?

Barbara: Yes.

Brian Lehrer: Thank you for your candor. You speak for a lot of people who don't know if they're going to run out of battery before they can find a charging post. That's another interesting story, Andrew, right? I can see your head bobbing like a bobblehead. Again, they're giving out Derek Jeter bobbleheads at Yankee Stadium tomorrow night. I think they should give out Andrew Van Dam bobbleheads with subscriptions to the Washington Post. What were you thinking as you listened to Barbara?

Andrew Van Dam: What I was thinking there was out of the left field, and that was her mention of needing a different vehicle for the snow. A couple of days ago, someone asked me, "Hey, I saw the map in your story, and I was surprised that there are relatively few trucks in the South and Southwest," which you think of as being a culturally more pickup country. Part of the reason for that would, of course, be that a lot of these crossover SUVs, a lot of these smaller SUVs, are four-wheel drive vehicles.

Perhaps, the reason why they're adopted more in the North then, is for weather.

Brian Lehrer: For weather, for the snow issue that she talked about. Of course, it used to snow in Huntington, Long Island, where Barbara lives. I don't think it snows there anymore. It certainly didn't, this winter. Here, it is early April, and it's going to be 90 degrees today. That brings us to the question of climate and the relationship between the new standards that the Biden administration is imposing. There was just the latest wrinkle on that, that I mentioned in the intro, that came down on Tuesday.

The conversion to EVs that's supposed to be taking place. What's the relationship between that and the trend toward these larger cars that you've documented in your data crawl for the Washington Post?

Andrew Van Dam: That is, of course, going to further eliminate the relationship we used to see between vehicle size and mileage. The relationship that will remain intact, of course, is between the resources used to create a vehicle, and vehicle size. The manufacturing costs and the manufacturing resources used will increase for these heavier vehicles, where you'll have enormous batteries to help combat that range anxiety you're talking about.

Enormous weights, but maybe not the same mileage problem they used to have. Those weights, of course, can also be a safety issue, because when one of these vehicles is hitting, say, a pedestrian or a cyclist, it's a very simple Physics equation of kinetic energy. How much weight is going at what velocity hitting a person, right? As these vehicles get heavier and heavier, we could see continual increases in pedestrian deaths on US roads.

Pedestrian deaths have been rising alongside this boom in trucks. We can't draw a direct causality there, but since around 2008, pedestrian deaths have been rising in the US, and it could be due to these larger vehicles.

Brian Lehrer: Let's take a call, maybe on that point. Mary, in Manhattan, you're on WNYC. Hi, Mary.

Mary: Hi, I am a pedestrian, primarily. I do ride city bikes sometimes, and I do have a car, because I have relatives on the island, and upstate. My issue is that the front of these SUVs, and more importantly, the Chevy Suburban, that are black cars now, instead of cabs. If you get hit by one of them, you're going under it and you're probably not going to survive. If, God forbid, I hit you with my 13-year-old little SAAB, you'd roll right off the hood.

You have such a low chance of surviving from a Chevy Suburban, a big GMC, a Ford truck, or [unintelligible 00:14:25]. Firemen use them, for some reason, to commute. You just can't survive an accident with something that huge, compared to a car. You have a chance with a car.

Brian Lehrer: You have stats on this, Andrew, right? The impact on pedestrian safety, of the trend toward larger vehicles in the last 15, 20 years.

Andrew Van Dam: Yes. 2009 was really the turning point. We saw what was probably an all-time low, or at least a vehicles existing time low, motor vehicles existing time low of pedestrian deaths of around 4,100. Now, we're seeing pedestrian deaths, just 12 years later, in the mid-7,000s. They've almost doubled. Given the trend in 2022, the early trend, we can guess that by 2022, pedestrian deaths will probably have doubled from their 2009 low, which speaks to exactly what your caller was talking about.

Experts have told us that these bigger vehicles, they are, of course, more dangerous, because they are going to hit you higher on the body. Even if they don't knock you under, they are more likely to hit your vital organs, or if you're a child, you're head, which is extremely dangerous.

Brian Lehrer: The height of the vehicles make them more dangerous, not just the weight. I'm seeing from your article, nearly 7,400 pedestrians were killed in 2021, the highest figure in four decades.

Andrew Van Dam: Yes, it's incredible. Nobody expected this turnaround, but it is now the talk of the transportation safety world. It is a genuine public health issue facing the United States right now.

Brian Lehrer: By the way, one slight correction, as you said, you described your head as bobbing like a bobblehead doll. To the first couple of callers, I said tomorrow they're giving away Derek Jeter bobbleheads at Yankee Stadium. No, it's Tino Martinez bobblehead night. Just to be really accurate. Steve, in Toms River, you're on WNYC. Hi, Steve.

Steve: Oh, hello, Brian. I have a situation that's not quite the same as what your guest is talking about. I'm 6'2" and I'm well over 250 pounds. I cannot fit in the smaller sedans. I would prefer a sedan. Currently, the car in my driveway is a 1995 Ford Taurus. I've had problems getting in and out of that, because of a back problem. I don't want to buy an SUV. I'd rather not, but I can't fit into the smaller, Japanese-sized imports.

It's not a matter of mileage. I just can't get down that close to the ground to get in and out of a car. I'm stuck having to get something like an SUV. That's all I've got for you. Thank you for taking my call.

Brian Lehrer: Thank you very much. That's interesting. As SUVs get bigger, are sedans getting smaller, Andrew?

Andrew Van Dam: What's happening is, the large sedan category, the station wagon category, also, it's the same general area, is being obliterated, because if you're going to make something the size of a large sedan or station wagon, then you can earn much bigger profits if you do those couple little tweaks and push it up into the light truck or crossover category. Anything on that borderline, automakers are going to figure out a trick to push it up into SUV country.

Brian Lehrer: Once we go toward full electrification, is the same set of dynamics going to be in play? Do you get fewer miles? It's not miles per gallon. Do you just get fewer miles on a charge in a heavier car than you do in a lighter car, like you get fewer miles to the gallon, in many cases?

Andrew Van Dam: That's an excellent question. One which I am not expert enough in battery dynamics to speak to. I can say that those larger vehicles do require much larger battery banks. It may be that those larger battery banks are delivering similar mileage to a small sedan. The mileage concerns may not be the same. Though, of course, it is going to take longer to refuel/charge these monster battery banks.

Brian Lehrer: I'm wondering about, as we run out of time, policy responses, which are focusing so much on electrification, for climate purposes. That's good, but it sounds like without the size of cars also being attached to these regulations, and the pedestrian death figures alone should be reason for a policy response, it seems to me.

Andrew Van Dam: These mileage concerns or mileage regulations may not be addressing the SUV loopholes, as we call it in the law. These spaces where you can get something that should be a station wagon, or a large sedan, classified as a truck. We need regulations that treat all vehicles equally, that don't give this incentive to automakers to make ever larger, ever taller, ever more perilous vehicles.

Brian Lehrer: We leave it there with Andrew Van Dam, columnist at the Washington Post's Department of Data. Thanks for coming on.

Andrew Van Dam: Thanks so much, Brian, and the callers.

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