Brigid Bergin: It's The Brian Lehrer Show. Welcome back, everyone. I'm Brigid Bergin, filling in for Brian, who's off today. One big takeaway from Election Day right here in the city that we're going to unpack this morning is the GOP is sending their first City Council member to the Bronx since 1983. That is 40 years ago. In a district where 61% of registered voters are Democrats, incumbent Democrat Marjorie Velázquez lost her seat to Republican Kristy Marmorato in Throggs Neck. Velázquez won just 47% of the vote to Marmorato's 52%. One major reason cited for her loss, a last-minute decision by Velázquez to support a rezoning plan in her district under pressure from City Hall.

We're going to talk now about how this one district swung to the right and some other takeaways from this surprise upset for a Democrat with Jonathan Custodio, Bronx reporter for the nonprofit news organization, The City. Jonathan, welcome to WNYC.

Jonathan Custodio: Thank you for having me. Happy to be here.

Brigid Bergin: Listeners, we want to hear from you. If you live in Marjorie Velázquez's City Council district in the eastern part of the Bronx, help us report this story. Tell us what happened in your backyard. Did you vote for Kristy Marmorato? What factored into that decision? Are there any other surprises from election day last week that you want to talk about, even in other parts of the city? The number is 212-433-WNYC. That's 212-433-9692. You can call or text or tweet @brianlehrer. Jonathan, by way of background, take us to the district, take us to Throggs Neck. You called it a politically mixed area in one of your stories about the City Council race, who lives there, where are we and how politically mixed is it?

Jonathan Custodio: Over the years, the district has become much more Latino. There are more Latino registered voters in the district. It used to be a lot whiter, a lot older, but that has changed and there's a bigger Black population there as well, and also more Asian voters. That's been a big shift. It's not a super dense neighborhood, unlike maybe areas of the west side of the Bronx or the south side of the Bronx. These are a lot of one and two-family homes, and that was really part of the foundation of why there was so much pushback to the Bruckner rezoning. This was a district who Velázquez had sat in the last eight years and only built 60 units of affordable housing or subsidized housing.

When a lot of residents heard the 349 units from Bruckner, there was really strong opposition from a loud contingent of folks. That really broke trust with a lot of people when Velázquez ultimately switched at the last minute and voted in favor of the project.

Brigid Bergin: Just for context, we're talking about Throggs Neck. It's a key neighborhood in the district, but obviously, the district extends beyond that. Can you flesh out the rest of the neighborhoods that make up this 13th City Council district?

Jonathan Custodio: Sure. District 13 includes neighborhoods. It's a lot of neighborhoods, but it includes top ones like Allerton, Pelham Gardens, Pelland Parkway, Van Nest, and City Island, which everyone knows for the lovely seafood and waterfront views. Those neighborhoods tend to vote a little more Democrat just like they did in this past election and they're a little more diverse. Other neighborhoods, like you mentioned, includes Throggs Neck, Pelham Bay, Schuylerville, Morris Park, and Country Club. These neighborhoods, maybe aside from Morris Park, tend to vote a little more red, much more Republican, people who have been in the district for a long time.

There tends to be not a whole bunch of residential subsidized units in these locations. One thing that was interesting is that Velázquez won some of the bluer areas by pretty low margins whereas Marmorato won pretty big in the areas where she was expected to win.

Brigid Bergin: Interesting. Let's talk about the Republican candidate, Kristy Marmorato, who is she, what's her background? She's a first-time candidate, but how did she build such support in a relatively short period of time?

Jonathan Custodio: She's relatively known. Her day job is an X-ray technician. Her brother is the GOP chair in the Bronx and her husband is the Republican Chair for Board of Elections. She has some political connections there, but she was relatively unknown. People didn't really know who she was before she announced her candidacy. She started to hit the pavement and people definitely knew who she was after this race and even part of the surprise here for some people was that in the Republican primary, she barely squeaked by, she needed three rounds of rank choice voting to get by that. I think that caught some people off guard in this race, whereas Velázquez notched more votes than there were votes recorded in the entire Republican Primary.

Brigid Bergei: Wow. Let's talk about some of the advantages as an incumbent Velázquez brought to this race. She had some major union endorsements, as I understand. What do you think went wrong for her or her campaign?

Jonathan Custodio: Like you said, Velázquez had major union endorsements. She had the Carpenters Union, Hotel Trades Council, and with that came money from independent expenditures, but also a whole bunch of canvassing. A lot of people in the district would tell me that it was not uncommon to see the orange shirts of the carpenters union every weekend, 50 to 100 of them just canvassing for Velázquez. That district also has a lot of carpenters. She had a real, as one person put it, every structural advantage you could imagine to me.

I think part of what I heard that was difficult was the Bruckner rezoning was hard to overcome. That was something that really broke voters' trust for a lot of people because they were concerned that, how is she going to respond for other developments or for the proposed casino to replace the now Bally's Golf Course, but others also told me that she was not really great at building local relationships.

She was not campaigning as hard as she should have been, she was often skipping public events where she might have faced scrutiny for how she voted on Bruckner rezoning, and that frustrated people who had backed her. Others had said that the Bronx Democratic Party didn't do enough to support her. Perhaps some noted that it was after such a good showing in the primary, maybe they thought there wasn't as much to worry about as they did before. This was the only competitive race in the Bronx. Some people were looking at their Bronx Dems like, "What happened, what went wrong?"

Brigid Bergin: Sure. Listeners, if you're just joining us, I'm speaking with Jonathan Custodio, the Bronx Reporter for the nonprofit news organization, The City. We are trying to unpack what happened in the 13th City Council District last week. We're taking a local look at some of the election results. That is, of course, where incumbent Democrat Marjorie Velázquez appears to have lost her seat to Republican Kristy Marmorato for a variety of reasons. If you live in that district and you want to tell us what you think went down, give us a call. The number's 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692. You can call or text or tweet @BrianLehrer.

Jonathan, just echoing some of what you said, we have a text from a listener who wrote, why Velázquez lost. Three points, disregard for constituents' interest, especially in Throggs Neck, inundation of glossy brochures, four in one day, texts, phone calls. I was not the only Dem angered by this. Questions regarding aggressive support by the Carpenter's Union, possibly responsible for Velázquez's support for development. Some of those same issues, certainly regarding the unions and a disconnect with constituents that you have reported. We have seen that turnout, because this was an off-year or an off-cycle election, was pretty low citywide. What was the turnout like in this race, and what does that tell you, if anything?

Jonathan Custodio: The turnout was pretty low. Political observers that I spoke to before it happened and afterwards agreed that this would favor Republicans and conservatives who tend to vote a little bit more loyally in low-turnout races in that district, and older white people who tend to be more liable in showing up to the polls in that district. I think a lot of people told me that if there was a higher turnout election, it definitely would have favored Velázquez. Former council member, Jimmy Vacca, told me that there are also a lot of voters who are not afraid to cross over.

They will vote on the other side, they will vote Democrat if they're Republican, they'll vote Republican if they're Democrat. I think the conservative line, especially for Marmorato, really put her over the hump. There are also a lot of independent voters in that district, I think, maybe a little over 20%. That definitely played a big factor as well. One of the points from that text message with the Carpenters Union, that sounds really interesting.

The Carpenters Union helped get the Bruckner rezoning deal across the finish line, and as well as Mayor Eric Adams, who pushed Velázquez [unintelligible 00:11:12] of the City of Yes housing initiative. The Carpenters Union basically said they would have chosen Velázquez over Jesus Christ during the primary. The bond and the connection there, as that voter noted, is very strong.

Brigid Bergin: Let's take one of our callers. Let's go to John in City Island. John is in the district. John, welcome to WNYC.

John: Thank you.

Brigid Bergin: Tell us what you think happened last week.

John: What happened was a great thing, by the way. This woman is the right person at the right time for this place. A lot of things have changed. We need change. This woman is definitely the right one. There's a lot of things going on, and we need change. We need something done here.

Brigid Bergin: John, it sounds like you are pretty happy that Kristy Marmorato won this race. What are you looking for when you say change from her when she's in office?

John: In general, the Bronx has changed a lot. We have a high crime. Pelham Bay, for example, Pelham Bay Park is trash all over the streets. You have people, they're taking drugs right out in the open, and there's a lot of fights breaking out lately. It's just not the same as it used to be.

Brigid Bergin: John, thank you so much for your call. Thanks for listening and call us again. Jonathan, any reaction to the sentiments that you heard there from John, who's calling from City Island? Certainly, he was talking about quality of life issues, some of the sanitation issues potentially. Were those the types of things that voters were upset about and that they were laying at the feet of Councilmember Velázquez?

Jonathan Custodio: Quality of life issues have always been a big part of that district. The caller definitely alluded to public safety as being a major concern for residents and pretty much has been for some time. There are a lot of police officers and former officers or law enforcement officers who live in that district, so that plays a major role as well. A lot of residents have called for more officers in their precinct. It was actually one of the things that Marmarato shot at Velázquez during their final debate on Bronxnet. I will say that City Island, as far as safety, is one of the safer neighborhoods in the Bronx, and most of the higher crime areas in the Bronx are more on the west side.

Brigid Bergin: Let's talk a little bit about this rezoning plan that you have mentioned a couple of times, the Bruckner rezoning, which seems to have been a really significant issue in terms of how her constituents were upset and were holding her accountable. This was a plan that she initially refused to back and then changed course. Tell us just briefly what was the plan, and then why did she change her tune?

Jonathan Custodio: The plan was 349 apartment units, housing development in Throggs Neck. I think there was also going to be a supermarket built there, and there was going to be upzoning, multi-story apartments, which is not common in this area. Most of the homes in Throggs Neck, as I noted, tend to be one or two-family homes. That explained a lot of the pushback from some people. It's worth noting that there was a lot of support for the project as well, even though the community board voted against it.

Part of the concerns that were there was Mayor Adams, after talking with Velázquez in Puerto Rico, it was just a day later that Velázquez switched her tune and voted for the project, which is mostly believed that Adams had a major role in pushing this across. It's part of a larger housing campaign. As I mentioned earlier, this is a district that has not built much housing, and as many elected officials and pundits have come on this show and said, the city is in an affordable housing crisis. That's where this was coming from. A lot of district residents just were not having it, and they were very loud and vocal about it, and it's been showing in other projects as well. That last-minute switch-up was just really hard for Velázquez to recover from.

Brigid Bergin: Listeners, if you're just joining us, my guest is Jonathan Custodio, Bronx reporter for the news organization The City, and we're unpacking that surprise city council win for Republicans in the Bronx last week and the issues that saw an incumbent Democrat, Marjorie Velázquez, lose her seat. Jonathan, just to close the loop on this rezoning, as you mentioned, this is part of the mayor's City of Yes initiative. It was aimed at addressing the city's housing crisis, something that this show has talked about many, many times. The city needs new housing. Will Marmorato's place on the council have any bearing on whether Bruckner is rezoned or not, or is this a done deal?

Jonathan Custodio: As far as I understand, Bruckner is a done deal. It's already voted in the council, supported by the mayor, it seems like that ship has sailed. There's bound to be other housing in the district that's proposed. Marmorato has said that she is anti-upzoning and often bashed Velázquez on how she responded to Bruckner. It's worth paying attention to her and other similar districts in the city, how they respond as the mayor tries to build more housing, and like you said, there's a housing crisis.

Brigid Bergin: It's been less than a week, but do you have a sense that New York Democrats are taking any lessons from this race?

Jonathan Custodio: Not really as of yet. I think there's still a lot of enthusiasm because there's still another election a couple of years away and they can try to get the seat back. I think they still look at the district and say Democrats have 61% of registered voters. This is ultimately about getting out the vote. I think there's a lot of chatter on that end in terms of this is a big loss, but Democrats can get back to where we were.

Brigid Bergin: As you mentioned, this is one of these weird election cycles where these city council members are all going to be running for office again in two years because of the redistricting process that cut their four-year term into two two-year terms. I guess it's a pretty short honeymoon for Marmorato when she gets started because she will be then potentially running again.

I think one of the things that might concern some housing advocates is that maybe the takeaway for some Democrats from this race may be the wrong takeaway, which is that Democrats may be shying away from things like supportive housing, which is another issue in this race and ultimately undo some progress on that front. Are you getting any sense from those individuals that they're concerned about that?

Jonathan Custodio: I think I have gotten some sense that there's a tad bit of concern, but again, people that I've talked to feel that more people in these districts want housing. They want to have more subsidized housing, more affordable housing that they can live in, but some of them feel like they're being drowned out by louder contingents of people who want to maintain the status quo. People that I've talked to feel that these groups in opposition are not representative of what many residents in these districts feel.

Brigid Bergin: Certainly, we heard in the caller, John from City Island, some energy from Republicans in the district. What do you think they're taking away from this race? Do you think that they are looking at other districts as potential pickups two years from now?

Jonathan Custodio: They're ecstatic. This was their first Republican City Council in 40 years. I think that's back when City Council was at large and first elected official in the Bronx that's Republican in about 20 years. Those elected officials also share territory, share part of their district in more Republican areas outside of New York City. There's just a lot of enthusiasm really for Republicans right now. They are ecstatic. They're really celebrating this moment.

I'm sure they're hopeful that they can gain ground in other parts of New York City, but the Bronx, District 13 is probably the only purplish district in the borough. Most of the other districts are pretty soundly blue, while there have been some increases in Republican votership across Bronx residents, particularly with Latinos. It still remains to be seen whether that's enough to really merit more investment from Bronx GOP.

Brigid Bergin: Jonathan, we've talked a lot about the housing issues and how that may have swayed voters, but there are also some other urgent issues in the city right now. Of course, the migrant crisis being one significant example, how did that play into this race, if at all?

Jonathan Custodio: That's a good question. The district had, I think as you remember, sort of a fiasco with migrant tents, that they were flooding in around City Island, there was a lot of strong pushback to that, a lot of unkind language used towards migrants from certain groups in the area, but surprisingly from people that I spoke with, the migrant crisis or the migrant situation was not really on voters' minds when they were going to the poll, and from what I understand, it was not a major driver in terms of what the results were.

Brigid Bergin: Then can you talk a little bit more about Kristy Marmorato's platform? How much of what she was running on was about what she wanted to do as opposed to what she wanted not to see council member Velázquez have already done. Is there anything that she has committed to to really bring voters out, policies that she wants to implement or projects that she wants to support?

Jonathan Custodio: She has touted state issues like bail reform, eliminating cash bail as things she's wanted to change. Her race was as much more so about pointing to Velázquez as being a poor candidate for the district and underscoring all the things that they felt she had done wrong. She did say, which I thought was interesting, in her debate against Velázquez in Bronxnet, that she wanted to see a waterfront with restaurants and maintaining park space where the golf course is at right now where Bally's has submitted a license application to have a casino there.

I think that's pretty noteworthy. That's one of the bigger things going on in the district right now and I think even others in the city are paying attention as casino operators are really pushing to get a casino in New York City. I think that's definitely something that she has been pretty vocal about to pay attention to.

Brigid Bergin: Jonathan, I know you're the city's Bronx reporter, but I'm wondering if there's anything else you took away from the elections last week, any other council districts that you saw shift in interesting ways to the right, even if the Republican didn't necessarily win, and just what you're going to be watching once the council member-elect Kristy Marmorato joins the body in terms of what the new dynamics are as they start this next session next year.

Jonathan Custodio: I guess I'm going to continue to pay attention to just how council members are expected to vote on housing measures going forward and just how much pressure they're going to get from leadership and there's a lot of talk about member deference for their Bruckner rezoning and that being not what it used to be. I'm very curious to pay attention to that going forward.

As far as other races, I pay most attention to the Bronx, but I would say, Justin Brannan's-- I thought about Justin Brannan's victory despite not getting support from the Brooklyn Democratic Party leadership juxtaposed with Velázquez getting all the support from Bronx Dems and still coming up short, I thought was interesting.

Brigid Bergin: Do you expect there to be any introspection among those Bronx Dems about what they did or didn't do in this race and what that means going forward? Obviously, we've got some really big congressional races that touch parts of the Bronx next year, balance of the house is at stake. I'm wondering how far do they see the need to reset things.

Jonathan Custodio: I expect so. This also follows-- last year they took, maybe not losses per se, but after redistricting, they had a candidate Miguelina Rivera for state senate to oppose Gustavo Rivera, who they suggested to run in another district that removed most of what he had previously had, which she was not in favor of. He and Senator Robert Jackson were pitted against the Bronx Dems in a certain sense and they lost both of those--

Rivera and Jackson won both of those seats. While that's not against Republicans, the strength of the Bronx Democratic Party is in question right now, so I think that they are definitely being reflective.

Brigid Bergin: Well, we will leave it there for today. Jonathan Custodio is the Bronx reporter for the news organizations, The City. Jonathan, thank you so much for joining me.

Jonathan Custodio: Thank you so much for having me.

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