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Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer on WNYC. The New York gubernatorial primary is coming up in June. Here we are in March and it's not too late to do a baseline informal unofficial, thoroughly unscientific Brian Lehrer Show call-in poll about who you're favoring in the primary. So far, it looks like the Republicans may not have a primary, that that might be Lee Zeldin by acclamation, but it looks like the Democrats certainly will have a primary.

The incumbent Kathy Hochul, versus Jumaane Williams, the New York City public Advocate, versus Tom Suozzi, the congressman from Northeast Queens and the North Shore of Long Island, and it looks like Andrew Cuomo is at least making noises about getting back in. If you had a choice between those four Democrats in New York State, who do you want for governor? 212-433-WNYC, 433-9692.

Here's some background. At the Democratic State Convention the other week, Governor Hochul won her party's nomination, but that's not the formal nomination. The primary is the formal nomination, but all these delegates who are Democratic Party activists got together and they chose Hochul pretty resoundingly. She gave what some would consider a rose garden speech. Here she is for a few seconds of that.

Kathy Hochul: I say we rise up. Our brothers and sisters, we rise up for our brothers and sisters in labor, and we'll rise up for women, and we'll rise up for working families, and we will rise up for the LGBTQ community, we'll rise up for Black, brown, Asian, and Native American communities. We'll rise up for Yorkers from Buffalo to Brooklyn. We'll rise up for Upstate and Downstate. Rise up. We will rise up. You'll rise up. You'll rise up for one state.

Brian Lehrer: That was about a month ago. Now she holds a lead of about 30 to 40 points over those Democratic opponents in a recent poll. Again, they are Tom Suozzi and Jumaane Williams, depending on what poll you're looking at, of course, but it's in that range, 30 to 40 point lead. That's formidable. She's raised well over $20 million in campaign contributions, millions more than her opponents that have already declared.

What about this C-word. Could Hochul's candidacy be affected by a potential fourth-wave candidate? Governor Cuomo, that is, the C, is Cuomo politics. Last week, the former governor signaled he might run for a fourth term and also signaled the kind of messaging he would bring up to the campaign trail if he joins it, two more C-words.

Andrew Cuomo: Cancel culture says if you don't agree with me, in my point of view, then you should be canceled. They do it through social media. They do it quickly. They do it effectively. They demonize, demonize anyone who doesn't agree with their position. It's a social death penalty. Anyone can get canceled at any time and it happens with frequency. No one's immune.

Brian Lehrer: Me, do something wrong. Who? Me? Former Governor Cuomo speaking in the Bronx the other day at Reverend Rubén Díaz Senior's church last week. By the way, Reverend Díaz may be most famous for being the most strident anti-gay politician in the New York City Council and New York state politics in recent times, at least among Democrats. An Emerson poll from March 4 shows Cuomo only lagging Hochul by four points in a hypothetical Democratic primary where he is running. He also was nearly on par with her on fundraising, already armed with $18 million, most of that he had from the past.

Here with me now to go over the latest in the race, and who's running and who's not and who's making noises like they're going to run and will they really, are Jon Campbell, Albany reporter for WNYC and Gothamist, and Josefa Velásquez, senior reporter for the nonprofit news organization, The CITY before we go to some of your calls in our informal unofficial and thoroughly unscientific calling poll. Hey, Jon. Hey, Josefa. Thanks so much for coming on today.

Josefa Velásquez: Thank you for having us.

Jon Campbell: Hey, Brian.

Brian Lehrer: Let's start with Cuomo speaking last week. Josefa, do you want to talk about the significance of where he spoke, at conservative Democrat Rubén Díaz Senior's church.

Josefa Velásquez: It's such a departure from the Governor Andrew Cuomo that we have been with for the last few years. He's talking at the Church of a former council member and former state senator who's been very vocal about his anti-LGBTQ stances. Of course, Cuomo has constantly said that one of his biggest achievements was a marriage equality that he passed.

The fact that he's now doubling down and embracing some of those opposed to that big accomplishment is really quite shocking. At the same time, you have to remember that Latinos are about a third of the New York City population and that Latino voters are not a monolith, you do have a lot of people who are still very religious, and who are not necessarily welcoming to the LGBTQ community. Andrew Cuomo is definitely trying to appeal to that crowd, especially in primary where it's the non-presidential year, so few people come out to vote.

Brian Lehrer: You're saying that Cuomo is setting himself up to run to the right of Hochul if he does in fact run.

Josefa Velásquez: Definitely. I think if you had seen a transcript of this speech, without knowing who it was, you were to think that it might have been Donald Trump or another Republican running, especially since he's been talking about the perils of "cancel culture." Again, I think we have to emphasize that no one canceled Andrew Cuomo, he willingly resigned from his position back in August. Yes, he was facing possible impeachment, but he made that decision to resign. It's no one canceled him, he chose to step down.

Brian Lehrer: Jon, what do you make of this Emerson poll conducted March 9th and 10th, which showed Cuomo trailing Hochul by only four percentage points, that's probably around the margin of error. It's approximately a tie between the two of them, 33% to 37% in a hypothetical Democratic primary. At the same time, the poll found 63% of New Yorkers don't want Cuomo to run again for public office, only 24% thought he should. How could the overwhelming sentiment be that he shouldn't even run, but then if he's in, he's about tied with Hochul?

Jon Campbell: You hit on it there. My takeaway from that poll was mixed messages. You had a majority of New York voters saying they don't want him to reenter public office. You had a majority of voters saying that they believed the Attorney General's report that found he sexually harassed 11 women, but at the same time, you had him running pretty tight with Hochul. I don't know that this Andrew Cuomo come-back tour is about running for anything this year. To our knowledge, he hasn't been circulating petitions to get on the Democratic primary ballot.

The nightmare scenario for Democrats or at least the Democratic establishment in New York would be that he were to circulate petitions to start some independent party and run independently. That's something that he could take until May to get done. It's a heavy lift to pull that off, but it can be done. He's done it before. That's something that you could split the Democratic vote and really hand this huge benefit to Republicans in November.

Brian Lehrer: Let's make some phone calls and do the first little stretch here of our informal unofficial thoroughly unscientific, and I can't say that strongly enough, Brian Lehrer Show call-in poll, see what some people are saying. Obviously, we do this as a conversation starter, not because we're going to come out with any numbers that we're going to publish. Let's see what some of you are saying and then we'll continue with Albany reporters Jon Campbell and Josefa Velásquez and talk about some of the other contenders who are officially in the race. Alicia in Queens, you're on WNYC. Hi, Alicia.

Alicia: Good morning, Brian. I just find it very strange that people have a collective amnesia when it comes to certain politicians, and especially Andrew Cuomo. They don't remember the fact it's not just a sexual harassment complaint, but also there were other corruption investigations that were going on all around him, and people who were around himself went and had all kinds of criminal prosecutions against them. When the investigation got to  close to Andrew Cuomo, he shut it down. He had the ability to do that.

People just don't seem to care about those kinds of things. When he was challenged, I can't remember who challenged him the last time, I can't remember her name, the actress, she tried to bring up all of that and it was just absolutely summarily dismissed. No one wanted to listen to it. No one wanted to listen, but that should be something that's in the conversation.

Brian Lehrer: Alicia, thank you very much. That was Cynthia Nixon, you were talking about.

Alicia: Cynthia Nixon, yes, thank you.

Brian Lehrer: Are you for Hochul or do you have an open mind about Jumaane Williams or Tom Suozzi?

Lisa: I'm absolutely for Governor Hochul. I think she's doing a great job. I do. I think she's doing a wonderful job.

Brian Lehrer: Alicia, thank you very much. Gabriel, on the Upper West Side. You're on WNYC. Hi, Gabriel.

Gabriel: Hi, Brian. How you doing?

Brian Lehrer: Good. What you got? Who do you like? Pull that lever.

Gabriel: Jumaane Williams all the way. He doesn't get as much attention as he deserves. I've been following his political career since the Occupy Wall Street days. He was a very inspirational force in the city politically and also in the street at the same time during that time. It's been great to see him ascend politically as much as he has. He certainly goes against the democratic hegemony, but we need him.

Brian Lehrer: Gabriel, thank you. He's not what? You can finish the thought. He's what?

Gabriel: Probably, he's not going to get as much financial backing as Hochul or certainly Cuomo, but he is the democratic spirit that we need.

Brian Lehrer: Thanks, Gabriel. We're going to go to Dan in Manhattan. You're on WNYC. Hi, Dan.

Dan: Yes. I would rather see and get my rights back to vote for who I want to, I'd rather see Cuomo get in. Cuomo did not kill people in the nursing home. The Department of Justice came out and said that never happened. He's been railroaded. He did an excellent job keeping us alive during this pandemic. I think he was railroaded. Let the voters decide and let the talking heads sit back. I don't agree with their opinions about this guy. Let the voters decide.

By the way, Governor Hochul, her step back bail reform, her all four taking young children, and we know what color they'll be, and charging them as adults, that's a big, giant step backwards. By the way, she's done nothing for my small business, zero. I would like to just hear them all battle it out and let the voter decide. Thank you.

Brian Lehrer: Thank you very much. We'll keep going for now. Joseph in Suffern you're on WNYC. Hi, Joseph.

Joseph: Hi. I'd like to say that I would vote for Governor Hochul very happily. I would vote for any candidate except Andrew Cuomo. I will never vote for Andrew Cuomo again. Even though he was not prosecuted for the way he treats women, I believe he doesn't treat them correctly. I remember, yes, he didn't kill people in nursing homes, but he underreported the deaths in nursing homes. I think that's despicable. I didn't forget also all your callers except me have been from New York city, but the governor serves the entire state. I think governor Hochul has a better chance to win in the entire state.

Brian Lehrer: Joseph, thank you very much. Mel in Ridgewood, Queens. I know that's New York city still. Mel, you're on WNYC. Hello.

Mel: Hi. How are you? I just wanted to call and say that I will definitely be voting for Jumaane Williams in the gubernatorial election. I think that if we really are potentially facing deeper economic wars, I think we need someone who's really aggressive. We need a progressive candidate that's going to be fighting for housing for all, for healthcare for all. These are really important social safety networks that new Yorkers are going to need if we do face another recession.

I think that trying to tow that line or using really complicated tax laws to address inflation, it's just not going to be enough. We need someone who's going to be at advocating for us really strongly.

Brian Lehrer: Mel, thank you. Stan in Forest Hills you're on WNYC. Hi, Stan.

Stan: I think the election is over now. The election is over because four percentage points Andrew Cuomo was behind. He's not going to win. All he has to do was answer one major question. Did you jungle or not? He has not answered this question yet. If he answers it and says, I didn't do anything, someone else did, he could be elected, but the Republicans will win the Governorship. Lee Zeldin and Kathy Hochul is a big balloon with no air.

Brian Lehrer: Interesting. You're saying Cuomo would be this strong a candidate for the Democrats. Is that part of why you're landing there?

Stan: Absolutely. Yes, sir.

Brian Lehrer: Stan, thank you very much. All right, one more. Stewart in Melvin, you're on WNYC. We'll get a Long Island call in here. Hi, Stewart.

Stewart: How you doing? My thought is Governor Cuomo does have a valid point, but I don't think it really applies to him. Now I think there is a cancel culture. There's a culture of guilt by accusation.

I'm thinking case in point, Kevin Spacey, who is accused by a waiter of groping him or something thing like that and sued and he lost movie roles, lost TV roles, or something like that. Then suddenly it quietly went away when the accuser withdrew his accusation. He never really got his day in court.

On the other hand, with Andrew Cuomo, it might be a little iffy, but there's a lot of accusations out there and even more has come out that he was running just a very toxic workplace. I think he leaves a bad taste in people's mouths and I don't think I would vote for him again, even though I thought he did handle the COVID crisis pretty well.

Brian Lehrer: Stewart, thank you very much. All right. This is WNYC-FM HD and AM New York, WNJT-FM 88.1 Trenton, WNJP 88.5 Sussex, WNJY 89.3 Netcong, and WNJO 90.3 Toms River. We are on New York and New Jersey Public Radio and live streaming at wnyc.org. Our very patient guests, as we've been listening to all those callers, are our WNYC state politics reporter Jon Campbell for WNYC and Gothamist, and

Josefa Velásquez, senior reporter for the non-profit news organization, The CITY who covers state stuff.

Josefa, I'll say it one more time, of course, any calling that we do is thoroughly unscientific, but there's an interesting array of opinions there that maybe at least represents some conversations that are taking place around the state.

Josefa Velásquez: Totally. I think we have to remember that this is a non-presidential primary year. The number of people that go out of their way to vote in these primaries is very few and far between. The people who do go out to vote are people who are energized, who feel empowered, and who are excited about their preferred candidate.

I don't know that anyone necessarily fits that bill right now. You have Kathy Hochul with a $20 plus million war chest who hasn't used her money to get her name out there. There's still a lot of people don't know who she is. Then you have Andrew Cuomo who was the governor during the pandemic and people from around the country tuned in, I think, to Jon's point, I agree with him, I don't necessarily think that he's running as much as just trying to clear his reputation. Then you have the--

Brian Lehrer: By the way, speaking of clearing reputation, I don't want to let what the last caller said stand unremarked on, just to say, I don't know all the details of any of the allegations surrounding Kevin Spacey but the caller made it sound like they all went away, they turned out to be phony. I'm just saying, I don't know. I don't want to let that sit there as a fact stated by a caller because I don't know, but go ahead, Josefa, finish your thought.

Josefa Velásquez: Jumaane Williams does have an energized group of people around him and has had those for years. I think, to one of the callers points, that the governor represents the entire state. This is the first time we have a governor who was from outside the New York city suburban area in, I think, something close to like 100 years. You need to have broad appeal for a very small group of people that are going to come out to out in June. While Kathy Hochul who's from Buffalo might have Buffalo on her base, Buffalo's also been the seat of a lot of very progressive movements recently with Starbucks workers attempting to unionize and a third-party candidate India Walton, getting really close to securing the mayoral seat there.

Again, I think too soon to tell what's going to happen. Usually, incumbents sail through these things because they're incumbents and have money and a platform of their disposal. It's an interesting bellwether test for the democratic party nationwide.

Brian Lehrer: Jumaane Williams. Jon, we had a couple of Jumaane Williams calls in that set, of course, running to Hochul's left. He ran against Hochul previously, ironically, when she was Cuomo's running mate for Lieutenant governor and Jumaane Williams was challenging her from the left for lieutenant governor in that Democratic primary four years ago. Now he's challenging her for the gubernatorial nomination. He's been endorsed by the Working Families Party.

I want to play a clip of his running mate. People don't know this name so well, perhaps, but you might remember her most famous moment. It's Ana María Archila. She's an activist, co-founder of Make the Road New York. You might remember her from this 2018 viral video yelling at Senator Jeff Flake in the elevator at the Capitol during the Brett Kavanaugh hearings.

Ana María Archila: What you are doing is allowing someone who actually violated a woman to sit in the Supreme Court. This is not horrible. You have children in your family. Think about them. I have two children. I cannot imagine that if for the next 50 years, they will have to have someone in the Supreme Court who has been accused of violating a young girl. What are you doing, sir?

Brian Lehrer: Ana María Archila at the US Capitol in 2018 during the Kavanaugh hearings. Now she's on Jumaane Williams's ticket in the Democrat primary for governor and lieutenant governor. Jon, what Hochul weak spots are Archila and Williams pointing out as they campaign? If they're campaigning to her left, what specific points are they emphasizing?

Jon Campbell: Well, it's interesting. On the right, you have Tom Suozzi blasting Kathy Hochul for crime over and over and over and over again. Then you saw Kathy Hochul l last week come out with a plan that was circulated internally, got leaked to the New York post as well as us, Gotham is about a 10-point public safety plan that, in part, would roll back the bail reforms, I should say, and make more crimes eligible for bail. This has been a huge topic of conversation in Albany and across the state as crime ticks up. For the candidates on the left, that's going to enrage them. Today, at noon, you have a big rally at the Capitol pushing against Kathy Hochul's plan.

I would expect you'll see Jumaane Williams really pounce on that issue. You already have seen him issue a statement criticizing her for it. The issue of crime is a huge one in the gubernatorial election this year, both in the primary, and it will be in the general election when Republicans have made clear that they are going to make it a huge issue, too. You're going to see Jumaane Williams make the argument that these bail reforms were necessary to avoid criminalizing poverty and you're going to see him make that argument that they need to stay in place as many Democrats on the left are making that argument.

Brian Lehrer: Let me take one more call because we finally have a Suozzi supporter calling in. Again, this is a thoroughly unscientific poll, but we didn't have any in the first set. Now we have a Suozzi voter. Jim in the West Village. Hi, Jim, you're on WNYC. Tell us why you like Tom Suozzi for governor.

Jim: Thank you, Brian. I think, first of all, I want to say that I am totally opposed to electing a bully and a bully administration that Hochul and Cuomo had. Kathy Hochul has to run on her record, not her rhetoric. The bail issue is a very, very important one, but she has a history. I just remember when she was in favor of having the natural gas pumped throughout the sit-down to the city. Tom Suozzi has a proven record. I think the debate that has to be based upon fact, not rhetoric.

Jumaane Williams is a very, very exciting candidate, but we've had too much of racial voting, gender voting. Let's deal with the issues and the history of the candidate. That's why, at this moment, before all the debates take place, I think that Tom should be considered a serious candidate.

Brian Lehrer: Jim, thank you very much. All right, let's wrap this up, Josefa, on the Tom Suozzi campaign. Again, he's a Democratic member of Congress currently from Northeastern Queens and the North Shore, Nassau county, and a little bit into Suffolk county. He used to be the Nassau County executive. He ran in a Democratic gubernatorial primary once before, that was 2006, against Eliot Spitzer and came out of that as you know, "Oh, well, I could have voted for Tom Suozzi and avoided all that mess with Spitzer," people said after that, to some degree, people who even never heard during that.

Now he is running mostly to the right of Governor Hochul. Give us the rationale for the Suozzi campaign and reflect on that last call or what he might represent.

Josefa Velásquez: I guess the rationale is why not? You have Democrats nationally looking at the midterms and realizing that they might lose the house. If you're going to become a member of the minority anyway, why not run for governor? He does have an uphill battle. You're facing an incumbent governor who is the first female to hold that position in New York. You could potentially be facing the former governor, who has millions of dollars at his disposal and someone who is to the complete left of you that has energized the left progressive movement.

At the same time, I can say this as a native Long Islander, there's nothing that gets Long Islanders riled up as much as property taxes and crime. Throw the Long Island railroad in there and you have people who are willing to go out and vote for those topics.

To Jon's point before, crime is a huge issue for this race and for all the down-ballot races. The perception of crime going up and safety being a critical part of New York's reconstruction post-pandemic is going to be a major factor in this. I can see why Tom Suozzi would want to do this because there's no better time than to just try and go for it. You never know what's going to happen as we've seen over the last year or so with Andrew Cuomo, I don't think anyone thought we would be in this situation.

Brian Lehrer: All right. Race on in the Democratic primary for governor of New York. We'll do a separate segment another day on the Republican race, if there is a Republican race. So far, we're waiting to see if Republicans other than Lee Zeldin actually get in, and obviously, we'll cover the general election in the fall. We thank Josefa Velásquez from the news organization, The CITY, and our own WNYCs and Gothamist's Albany reporter, Jon Campbell. Thanks, both.

Josefa Velásquez: Thank you.

Jon Campbell: Thank you.

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