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Brian Lehrer: It's The Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC. Good morning again, everyone. An article in The New York Times last week took note of a certain disparity in the recovery of our lifestyles from before the pandemic. Live performance is pretty much fully back in New York City, but the live audiences are not. Let's explore which audiences and why, and if anything can be done about it other than eradicate COVID completely, which is proving so hard to do. Our guest for this is the writer of the article, Javier Hernández, culture reporter for The Times, whose beat usually focuses on classical music and dance. Javier, thanks for coming on for this. Welcome to WNYC.

Javier: It's good to be here. Thank you.

Brian Lehrer: Can you start with some of the numbers this article is based on? You say far fewer people than before the pandemic are showing up to watch the star performers who have returned to the stage. What are some of those metrics?

Javier: Well, my colleague Michael Paulson and I, we looked at a variety of metrics across Broadway, regional theaters, Metropolitan Opera, symphony halls across the country. What we came to notice is that attendance is significantly down by any which way you look at it. For example, on Broadway only about half as many people saw a show last season compared with before the pandemic. At the Metropolitan Opera, paid attendance was down to 61%. Usually, it's around 75%. What this indicated to us was that even though live performance is back and there's a ton of energy around it right now, there are still significant gaps in terms of filling those seats. Everyone seems to be struggling with it.

Brian Lehrer: You mentioned regional theater and places around the country. Do you have comparisons with other big cities or with the New York suburbs? I mean, there are plenty of theaters and concert venues, we forget sometimes, in New Jersey and on Long Island and in Westchester, for example. Do you know if this is all a Manhattan phenomenon, or if it's true in LA and San Francisco and Chicago or in the suburbs around here as well?

Javier: I think it's generally true pretty much anywhere you look. Certainly, some of the big cities have been harder hit because of a phenomenon like work from home, which has emptied out downtown offices. Those theatergoers and concert-goers who might just stop by after work gets out are no longer there. Certainly, in some cities like San Francisco, for example, there's been struggles to fill seats.

I think in the suburbs, in the rural areas and smaller cities, there's the same phenomenon. The best data we had was there was a study of 143 performing arts organizations done by a group called TRG Arts. They looked at ticket sales, and they were down 40% in the 2021-2022 season compared with before the pandemic, and revenues were down by about a third. It seems to me a pretty universal struggle as well.

Brian Lehrer: Yes. The suburban theaters' decline makes me think maybe it's not so much from work-from-home. Because I think we've seen retail, convenience stores, other things in the suburban areas where people used to commute into Manhattan at higher rates from, the local businesses there are doing better than they used to. We had a guest on talking about that recently. Because people are buying things near their homes in the suburbs that they used to buy near their workplaces in Manhattan. If it was just work-from-home, you would think that the regional theaters would be doing maybe even better than before the pandemic.

Javier: Yes. I think it's not just work-from-home like you said. It's there are still lingering concerns about COVID. Some people are still very uncomfortable by the idea of sitting in a small enclosed space right next to strangers, and that's certainly continuing to sap some of the sales. I think also just the pandemic has changed people's habits, and live performance, live theater, live concerts were an important part of people's lives before the pandemic. Maybe not quite as important as they were now. I think people are just-- As somebody has put it to us, they said, "The gravitational pull of the couch is much stronger now than anyone ever expected."

I think that rings true for a lot of communities. That people just want to stay at home some nights rather than going out to see a show that maybe they would have before in the [crosstalk].

Brian Lehrer: Right. That quote jumped out at me too. It was from Jeremy Blocker, Managing Director of New York Theatre Workshop. A workshop which - for those of you who don't know - is the Off-Broadway Theater that developed Rent and Hadestown, and other important plays as the article reminds us. He said, "There was a greater magnetic force of people's couches than I, as a producer, anticipated."

Javier, if we take that at face value, that could mean he thinks many people just stopped thinking live performance is culturally vital to their lives. With all the live streaming that's available, and maybe just inertia, making us inert by the dictionary definition. Inertia from staying home a lot and just getting used to it. Is that measurable at all, or do you have a take on it?

Javier: It's hard to measure, but I do feel that people have become a bit more selective in what they're willing to go out to see. While our article really focused on the problems facing these theaters, there are exceptions. There have been some hits that have drawn people into the theater. I'm thinking of Hugh Jackman on Broadway, or last season the Metropolitan Opera's opening night Fire Shut Up in My Bones, a big new opera that drew people for sold-out houses.

There are still performances that people are willing to drive in to see or take the subway to see, but they are, I think, becoming a bit more selective in what they're willing to risk their health for or what they're willing to either get up off the couch for. It's still a calculation that every household, I think, is figuring out. It may still change despite this relatively dire situation right now. I think there is still some hope that people will once again realize the importance of live performance, and they may not see those health threats as grave a threat as they once did.

Brian Lehrer: Well, on the health threats, I want to make sure we address this head-on before we open up the phones and take listener phone calls because I think it was really the centerpiece of your article out of all these other factors. To what degree does it appear that these failures of the audience to return in full force are a function of aid? Aid. Listen to me - age. [chuckles] That's how you say that word. Are a function of age and the elevated risk of serious effects from COVID that we all know come with age. Your article notes that Live Nation, the concert giant that mostly produces concerts for younger audiences, is selling more tickets than in 2019.

Javier: Yes. I think age is actually a huge factor. While there isn't a great number of data on it, I think anecdotally most theater producers and impresarios will tell you that the audiences that they had been welcoming before the pandemic were skewed older. Those who remain most hesitant about coming back to the theater, to the concert hall, are older people. During the pandemic, a lot of these groups of people stayed away from theaters. They didn't see it as worth risking their own health. Some of them might have compromised immune systems or just might be slightly above that age when you begin to think, "Is it really worth it for me to risk getting COVID?"

We should say that obviously, the risks from COVID have minimized so much so since the start of this pandemic. Most health experts agree that going to the theater, if you take precautions you can do it relatively safely, so people are becoming a bit more comfortable about that experience. There are still folks, for example, at the Metropolitan Opera where their ages skews even older than Broadway. There are still patrons who are unwilling to come back, or who really want those mask mandates to be in place this fall.

That is all a source of debate right now across the performing arts. Should we maintain these strict health protocols even though it may be turning off the younger people, but it may keep our older patrons coming? Some are, I think, going to keep those rules in place.

Brian Lehrer: Listeners, have you stopped going out to see live performances in New York or anywhere else compared to before the pandemic? If so, why is it? Is it fear of COVID? Is it inertia because the magnetic pull of your couch was stronger than anybody expected? Is it fear of crime, which we haven't touched on yet? Is it that you're working from home more and so it's just more of a pain to get up and go? If so on any of these things, could anything bring you back? 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692, or tweet @BrianLehrer. With Javier Hernández, culture reporter for The Times, whose beat usually focuses on classical music and dance. I guess since you cover mostly classical and dance, you must be seeing this audience decline pretty heavily on your beat, yes?

Javier: Yes. It's been noticeable although there have been-- I think we go back a year ago. There was a lot of excitement, energy, and enthusiasm among audiences for that very beginning opening of the fall season. There were fancy galas, there were premieres. People were showing up for that. Then I think what many people didn't anticipate was this wave after wave, this relentless continuation of the pandemic, which forced absences, cancellations, all sorts of turmoil in the performing arts as we went into the winter.

That was really where a lot of these groups started seriously struggling in the winter season with Omicron certainly. It was hard to make the case to get people back in the seats. Certainly, a year ago we were in a much different place and people thought this was the post-pandemic season. Turned out to be amid-the-pandemic-still kind of a season.

Brian Lehrer: Omicron 1, Omicron 2, Omicron 5. Rick in Princeton, you're on WNYC. Hi, Rick. Let me try that again.

Rick: Two things that I thought. That you were-- Can you hear me?

Brian Lehrer: Yes, now we can hear you. Go ahead.

Rick: Hello?

Brian Lehrer: Yes, we got you, Rick.

Rick: Okay. Two things. I was wondering whether you were staying away from the economics itself. I subscribe to being a liberal. I come into New York City quite a bit. I love the arts. To go to the Village Vanguard these days - I'm a jazz lover - they've doubled their prices. Also, the Blue Note has increased their prices. The train ride is $32 round trip to get in, and then dinner is another $40 or $50 or $60; that's being conservative. Also, there's a new normal that's taking place now. This pandemic is not just over and done. No. It's left its mark on us, and we really don't even know what that new normal is going to be. There's a lot of reasons for it.

Brian Lehrer: Rick, thank you very much.

Rick: That's my point, Brian, and I love your show. Yes. Thank you so much.

Brian Lehrer: Thank you very much. Well, let's take up his points. For one thing, he mentions the iconic jazz clubs, which are small places. There are some other small music venues in the city. He mentioned the Vanguard and the Blue Note where the spaces are pretty small so the seating is dense, which would presumably be a COVID risk more than some other places if someone there is infected. I think the audiences from any of those places tend to be older. Have you looked at all specifically at the kinds of jazz clubs that the caller talked about?

Javier: We haven't looked in depth at jazz clubs specifically, but what I would say is overall the trends are that ticket prices are actually depressed. Certainly, I think there are some pockets and spots where ticket prices have either remained constant or increased because of inflation and other reasons. I think the caller is right in saying that we're in an economy where things are generally getting more expensive. The idea of going out, having a night on the town could end up being more expensive in some cases if you're going out for dinner, if you're driving in, if you're taking some kind of transportation that is expensive.

I think all sorts of costs factor into this experience of theater-going and concert-going that are certainly being affected by those broader economic forces that we're seeing at play right now.

Brian Lehrer: Inflation may be a factor too. In fact, I don't know if you were listening, but we spent the previous segment before you came on talking about congestion pricing proposals for Manhattan. Is there a culture sector lobby with a position against that?

Javier: I'm not aware of one, but certainly I think it would have a big impact on performance as well, so it's something I'm sure people are watching closely.

Brian Lehrer: On the jazz clubs that the caller brought up, I go to the jazz clubs sometimes too, and it's a sector I pay attention to. From my eye, one of them, Birdland - and maybe I'm missing others but I have only seen the one, Birdland - is streaming their shows as well as they're back live. They make streaming tickets available for $20, which you can then watch on wherever your computer is or your phone or whatever you're watching it on, any time for the next week after the live performance takes place.

Do you know if this is a model that various places are adopting? Is there something new settling in now that the pandemic has come and is continuing to whatever degree it's continuing? Offering live streaming of the same events that are taking place live in-person in various kinds of theater and music, et cetera?

Javier: Yes there's huge interest in that, and a lot of experimentation going on right now. I don't think many venues, many organizations have found exactly the winning ticket. They haven't figured this out in a way that makes money on a huge scale, but there's definitely a lot of experimentation going on. Just speaking from my own bit, dance and classical music, I can think of dance companies that have started doing this kind of hybrid concerts or performances where they will sell a certain number of seats that are live-stream seats, and a certain number of in-person seats.

Certainly, a lot of the classical music organizations now will live-stream their concerts, and some are charging for that, some are not. It's certainly an area of innovation and, I think, tremendous interest, but I'm not sure anyone's figured out how to turn it into the cash cow that they really need in order to thrive.

Brian Lehrer: I wonder to what degree it's a zero-sum game from a business model standpoint. Like if there really is a magnetic pole of people's couches, are whatever performance organizations slaughtering their own in-person attendance by making live streaming available because so many people are going to say, "Wow, I can see a concert at Carnegie Hall," I don't know if they do it at Carnegie Hall, "or wherever, and I don't even have to go," and forgetting that there's nothing like a live experience?

Javier: Yes, for sure. I think that's tricky for them, figuring out that line where they can offer some seats but don't want to alienate other patrons. Making sure they get a good balance between the two.

Brian Lehrer: Lori in Glen Rock, you're on WNYC. Hi, Lori.

Lori: Hi. Good morning, everyone. I want to start this by saying how much I love live theater, and I love live music and that sort of thing. However, I am reluctant to go in and see performances anymore, and it has nothing to do with COVID. It has everything to do with how people behave. I have recently gone to see a musical at a theater out here in New Jersey where part of the audience took it upon themselves to sing along with the performers, which I had not paid to do.

When I go to the theater I want to see what's on the stage because these people work very hard and they put a lot into their craft. That's what I'm paying to see, not to hear a Joe Blow sitting in front of me singing along in a voice that's best left in the shower if you know what I mean. [laughs]

Brian Lehrer: [chuckles] Yes, that's a really interesting observation. Have you seen anything like that, Javier? We hear about how in school when kids went back after the remote learning period, especially maybe some of the ones who were younger and hadn't had that much in-person school before, or, I don't know, maybe more for high school students just because they're teenage, they had forgotten how to be socialized, and so behavior, in general, worsened once people came together again in person. You heard the story that Lori gave. Do you see this happening?

Javier: I think people's behaviors have definitely changed, and it's on a variety of levels. I think of dress-for-concerts. I go to a lot of concerts at Carnegie Hall or the Met or the New York Philharmonic. I think post-pandemic people are just a bit more flexible in what they wear to these concerts and don't care so much about dressing up. That's definitely something I've seen change. I think the other thing is just COVID protocols can be divisive. Certainly, there have been cases I've seen of disputes over masks.

I remember reading about disputes on Broadway over audience members who insisted on taking off their masks and were escorted from the theater. I think there is still a lot of that tension among people, and it manifests in different ways.

Brian Lehrer: If you're just joining us, we're talking to Javier Hernández, culture reporter for The New York Times. One of the writers of an article that some of you may have seen last week about how live performance is pretty much back after the peak of the pandemic but the audiences for the live performances are still pretty down. Judy in Port Washington, you're on WNYC. Hi, Judy.

Judy: Hi. It's a great topic. I wanted to add two points. One is that, for me, this isn't just about live performance. I also don't like going to movie theaters where I'm sitting with a big audience. I go to the biggest emptiest ones I can find. I wanted to introduce a phrase to counteract that couch gravitational force. Is this COVID-worthy? I'm borrowing a concept from Seinfeld when Elaine went around wondering if a man she met was sponge-worthy. If I go to this show, will I still be okay with it even if I got COVID? So is this COVID-worthy?

Brian Lehrer: The sponge was her birth control method? Do I remember that correctly?

Judy: Right. It had been discontinued. She went around buying up all she could and hoarding them, but still, it's a finite amount. Every time she met a guy she had to decide was he worth using one of them on?

Brian Lehrer: Well, interesting. Yes, is this worth the risk? Is this performance going to be worth whatever COVID risk is involved? Javier, I read that the Broadway show The Kite Runner is going to a masks-required policy for two shows a week - Friday nights and Wednesday matinees - but all the other Broadway shows are going full-time with the masks-optional policy which began this summer. What does that tell us about the demand for COVID precautions versus the demand to be done with them in order for audiences to return?

I'm not sure what to make of the competing narratives here of almost every Broadway show dropping their mask mandate, but The Kite Runner reinstating two because they think it's going to help sales.

Javier: I think, by and large, a lot of these organizations see masks as something that's potentially turning away a younger contingent of ticket buyers. By and large, they are removing those mandates because they think it will appeal to this demographic. On the other hand, like you said there is still some division in the community. I think that a lot of that is around the fact that performers themselves are a bit nervous about having audiences come in unmasked. You think of the audiences for Broadway shows, for example, and it's a lot of people who have been recently traveling and a lot of tourists, et cetera, who may have been exposed to COVID.

I think a lot of performers are worried about that because once they get COVID, even though they probably won't die they will be off Broadway for at least 10 days. Think of a star like Hugh Jackman. That could be huge for a Broadway production to lose their stars, to lose their top performers so frequently. Many are worried about a repeat of last season when shows had to shut down or cancelations or substitutions were common, so that's what's behind a lot of it. I think at the end of the day they've made this calculation that by making masks optional they can appeal to a broader crowd, and they're going to try that out.

Brian Lehrer: The caller mentioned movie theaters, which doesn't come up in your article. How about movie theaters? Are they also seeing declines in the recovery of live attendance compared to before the pandemic?

Javier: Yes. Definitely, it's not just performing arts that have seen this decline. It's movie theaters as well. When we looked at the data there, in general they're releasing fewer titles, and the domestic box office revenues were down by about a third or so compared with the same period in 2019. There's certainly still a lot of room to go for the domestic box office. Thinking beyond movies, it's sports as well. Major League Baseball reported that it has also been drawing fewer fans into stadiums than before the pandemic, so there's--

Brian Lehrer: Boy, it's not true in New York, to my eye, with the Mets and Yankees doing so well. I think I'm seeing attendance figures of like 40,000 a game.

Javier: Yes. This is, I guess, broader than New York. The average attendance, I think, for the MLB dropped something like 5%.

Brian Lehrer: Have you ever seen a stat on COVID transmission at baseball games or other outdoor stadium events? Theoretically, there's a risk when you're outdoors but in a very dense crowd, but I've never seen it reported.

Javier: Yes, that's a good question. I haven't either. I've seen interesting studies. People have done studies on transmission among symphony orchestras, especially the woodwind sections of orchestras on stage, and that's clearly a threat; that's an indoor space. Outdoors, I haven't seen much good data on exactly the potential for the virus to spread.

Brian Lehrer: We had that caller before who was complaining about increased prices at the jazz clubs like the Village Vanguard. Well, look who's calling in. It's Deborah Gordon, the owner of the Village Vanguard. Deborah, it's so nice to hear your voice-

Deborah: Hello.

Brian Lehrer: -as we're about to hear your voice. Old friend of the show. Hello.

Deborah: Hello, Brian. It's nice to hear your voice too. I have several unused gift certificates moldering in the file drawer for you.

Brian Lehrer: Oh my.

Deborah: So you better come soon. [chuckles]

Brian Lehrer: I guess so. What do you want to say to that caller?

Deborah: Well, of course I empathize with that. Yes, we have raised our prices a little bit. We haven't doubled them. We did raise them by $5. Also, to try and make a nod to this, we've instituted something recently at our ten o'clock shows, where we offer a certain number of reduced-price admissions. Reduced it even past our regular admission. Yes, why did we have to raise our prices? Everybody does right now. COVID still has us very much in its grip.

We have musicians constantly who-- Just recently, two weeks ago, a musician opened on Tuesday, Wednesday tested positive. He's scheduled to be there for two weeks. We scramble around, we find substitutes. This happens quite a bit. Half the staff might get wiped out by COVID. We can't even open. We're constantly right now without even the city's support, which we wish we still had, in terms of enforcing certain restrictions. We're still very much on a knife's edge with COVID. Will we be able to open? Won't we be able to open?

Brian Lehrer: On a given day.

Deborah: On a given day for a given week, yes.

Brian Lehrer: Javier mentioned the stories of transmission among wind players in symphony orchestras in indoor spaces. That musician you referred to - you don't have to identify them by name - was that a wind player?

Deborah: No.

Brian Lehrer: He wasn't? Who started on Tuesday and got COVID on Wednesday.

Deborah: No, not a wind player.

Brian Lehrer: What do you say to people concerned about COVID in a relatively small space like the Village Vanguard about protocols, or whatever you can say to make people think it's safe?

Deborah: One of the things we did prior to reopening after being closed for a year and a half and streaming during that time, which is a whole other story, [chuckles] but we installed a new air system. It's much more comfortable in there. It has certain ionization things that clean the air, whatever we can do. Sometimes certain musicians ask us to ask the audience if they would stay masked during the show in between sips of their drinks. We totally respect that and do that.

I sit and answer e-mails all day long. "Are you still enforcing your vaccination policy?" I keep the signs up, and I keep that information on our website, but I have to say, "No, we can't. We don't have the backing to do that. We hope you're vaccinated, we all appreciate it, and if you want to mask we appreciate that even more."

Brian Lehrer: Have you thought about live streaming on a regular basis in addition to the live performances? Do you think that would be good for the club or bad for the club?

Deborah: Yes, I thought about it, and then I sat down and the thought passed right by me. [chuckles] We did it for a year and a half. First of all, in our space, which as you know is quite small, it has certain technical difficulties for us. Economically it's not a model at all to be followed. I'm glad that we did it during COVID because, one, it gave some musicians an opportunity to play together for a moment, which they hadn't been able to do, and make a few dollars.

Brian Lehrer: Right. [crosstalk]

Deborah: Yes. Economically it's just a deep hole to climb into,-

Brian Lehrer: Yes. Interesting.

Deborah: -and so it's not really, I think, a good option for us. I understand it's a struggle. I struggle with it myself every night that I go there. Like between safety and enjoyment.

Brian Lehrer: Very open, Deborah. Thank you for talking about this. The Village Vanguard is such a great and still important New York City institution, so best of luck to you, and I hope to see you.

Deborah: Thank you, Brian. I hope to see you soon. Bye-bye.

Brian Lehrer: Thank you for calling. Well, Javier, that was really interesting. Such a candid phone call from Deborah Gordon, owner of the Village Vanguard, on the challenges at this particular time.

Javier: Yes. I think the challenges are just magnified because a lot of these organizations relied on federal funding during the pandemic, and for many, that's drying up now. Many people are trying to figure out exactly how they're going to get through the next season. This is about performers, it's about managers, it's about crew members, it's about ushers. There's entire families of artists and those around them who are affected by this downturn. Many of them are just trying to get through this uncertainty and they don't really know how it's going to shake up.

Brian Lehrer: Well, we will leave it there for now with Javier Hernández, culture reporter for The New York Times, whose beat usually focuses on classical music and dance. He is the co-author of the article that they published last week about live performance being pretty much fully back in New York City, but the live audiences not as much. Thanks a lot, Javier. We really appreciate it.

Javier: Thank you so much.

Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer on WNYC. Much more to come.

 

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