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Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer on WNYC. Now to our climate story of the week, which we do every Tuesday here on The Brian Lehrer Show. A study from researchers in the UK published in the journal Nature Communications has located regions of the world that carry the most risk of dangerously hot weather, of record-shattering heat. They've taken a novel approach, analyzing maximum daily temperatures around the world between 1959 and 2021, and they've zeroed in on one important yet simple explanation for why a particular region may be susceptible to high-impact heat waves, meaning not just hot, but a real high and negative impact on the people there.

It's because, and I'm paraphrasing an explainer by New York Times climate reporter, Raymond Zhong, here, these regions have not been through an extreme heat wave before. Consider as an example the deadly 2021 heat wave that blanketed much of the Pacific Northwest, a part of the country used to relatively mild summers. Portland, Seattle, Vancouver, they all hit 100 degrees. British Columbia hit 121 degrees.

The researchers behind this report found that that heat wave was so much more extreme than anything that had ever been registered in the region. It doesn't fit standard climate projection models. Let's talk to Raymond Zhong, New York Times climate reporter, about this study and some of the other things he's writing about like drought in East Africa exacerbated by climate change and the optimistic prospect of respite in California, thanks to less extreme spring temperatures. Raymond, thanks for joining our climate segment of the week. Welcome to WNYC.

Raymond Zhong: Thanks, Brian. Good to be here.

Brian Lehrer: You explained in your article in the Times that this study from the UK found that regions covering 31%, so like a third of earth's land surface, experienced heat so extraordinary that statistically, it shouldn't have happened but that there are still regions that had not experienced high impact heat wave. Where are some of those places and which of them are of particular concern?

Raymond Zhong: Sure. It's an interesting study. It really finds that even though you've seen examples like the Pacific Northwest heat waves, that looked so extraordinary that really tested our understanding of the climate. When these researchers looked around the world, they found that actually a lot of places had seen those kinds of really statistically implausible temperatures before. Actually, places that hadn't yet experienced them seem to be all around the world as well and they don't fit a particular pattern.

You had countries in Europe including Germany, the Netherlands. You had a part of China that also hadn't really seen the bounds of its temperature records really stretched, but you also had a lot of developing countries. Afghanistan, Central America had a few countries, Papua New Guinea. Those are the places, I think, that it's reasonable to assume might be even less prepared where the resources aren't there, the infrastructure isn't in place to keep people safe during these heat waves.

Brian Lehrer: Also, is it places not used to extreme heat and so the impact on the people might be even larger? We were talking about the Pacific Northwest, if it was going to hit 121 degrees in Miami, let's say, people would go, "Oh my God, that's terrible, but it's Miami, I guess. If the climate is getting hotter, that's where it's going to happen." They wouldn't have expected it in Canada, in British Columbia.

Raymond Zhong: That's exactly right. I think it's an interesting way to think about the problem because it really extends all the way from societies down to individuals. If your own home hasn't flooded before, if you haven't yourself even experienced what a 120-degree day might be like, then that's just not something in your own realm of preparation, what you think about in your day-to-day life, so when it happens, it catches you off guard and sort of forces you to rethink what you do and how you spend your day.

That's true for societies as well, and that's why it's important to have an idea of where these places in the world are that might not have had that experience and that memory of really traumatic heat.

Brian Lehrer: You know how some people call global warming global weirding, is this an example of that that the effects of climate change as the earth warms are more scattershot than scientists would've expected them to be such as extreme heat in a place like the Pacific Northwest or in Germany, another example you cited, which is relatively North?

Raymond Zhong: I think basically what the study and generally what scientists now understand about the climate is the weather has always varied a huge amount. Even before climate change, there were always extremes. The right combination of the air moving in a certain way and pressure, it just creates these extreme temperatures. Obviously, you can say that's always happened and places have always experienced it. What climate change does is it turns up the dial a little bit.

You have more heat in the atmosphere, everything shifts up, those really hot extremes become more likely. This study really hammers home that all those extremes are still possible, and extreme way off the charts heat waves are just still a matter of getting really unlucky with the air and the pressure and circulation of it. I think, basically, the message is that these extremes can always happen and they can happen anywhere.

Brian Lehrer: Yes. I'm thinking of it in contrast to another story you've been reporting on that I mentioned in the intro, which is East Africa's drought, which is in its third year, but the average American might think, "Well, yes, that's an impact of climate change that I might have expected desertification in an area that's already warm and has a certain amount of desert."

Again, not in someplace like Portland or Seattle, but you wrote about a study which found that climate change made that East Africa drought 100 times as likely. Can you talk about the effect of such a long dry spell in so vulnerable a region and what that study found?

Raymond Zhong: Sure. What's been happening in the southern part of the Horn of Africa, so parts of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, is they've had an unprecedentedly long string of weak rainy seasons. That part of the world has two rainy seasons per year and so basically, for five consecutive rainy seasons now, they've had below-average rains. As you said, it's a vulnerable part of the world already.

A lot of people depend on rain-fed agriculture. They're pastoralists, they have herds of cows. They depend on the land quite a bit, and when the rain doesn't come, the effects on the human population is enormous. While it's, of course, a place with that vulnerability there, and you might expect its climate being close to the equator to be already quite hot, in fact, climate models had suggested and still do suggest that that part of the world might actually experience more rain as the world warms.

It's just the function of where it is along the Indian Ocean. It wasn't necessarily obvious that you would have more droughts, but what this group of scientists found in their analysis released last week was that, actually, weak rains might not have been influenced by climate change but the temperatures that really contributed to the soil and the land being so parched during these droughts.

Those temperatures have been made more likely by climate change. You do see when you put that together, weak rain and high temperatures exacerbated by climate change, that's what made this recent scenario much, much more likely for East Africa.

Brian Lehrer: Listeners, if anyone has any comments or questions for Raymond Zhong, New York Times climate reporter on the regions most at risk of extreme weather as identified by researchers from the UK and published in the Journal Nature Communications last week, we can take your calls. Anyone from any of the areas we've been talking about so far or in any of the areas we've been talking about so far or just climate-concerned people generally with a comment or a question or a policy proposal, anything, 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692.

Staying on that question of drought, worse in East Africa than was being projected, California the opposite, so used to drought in recent years but now showing signs of respite. How come, in California's case?

Raymond Zhong: It's been an extraordinary year for California water-wise. They had a really, really strong string of storms really back to back in the early part of this year. Now, the big question is how quickly all the snow that's piled up in the Sierra Nevada will melt. While it's still very early to say the whole season for melting in California is going to be between-- It's already started, but it'll go through July maybe.

At least in terms of the big picture, it doesn't look like California and Nevada are going to be warmer than normal. At least, you can say that the snow melting might not be as quick or as sudden as you might fear. It's when the temperature really climbs and really spikes in that region that the snow melts quickly and you get flooding. It doesn't mean California is entirely out of the woods.

The melting has already started. Individual weeks might be hotter than usual. You could still see a lot of problems with reservoirs and levees in California, but at least from a really high level, the forecast is looking okay.

Brian Lehrer: Getting back to this study from the UK on the areas of the world that are likely to experience the biggest impact from extreme heat, and we should say those researchers are from the University of Bristol, the University of Edinburgh, Oxford, and the University of Exeter, they didn't just look at climate and weather data.

I see they also used economic and population data to determine risk, which is why Afghanistan, in particular, such a different place from, say, the Pacific Northwest, which we've been talking about in relation to this study, why Afghanistan is such a particular concern. Though it might be fairly obvious, we should ask how might extreme weather affect Afghanistan.

Raymond Zhong: I think you already have seen even in recent years, not necessarily in Afghanistan in particular, but other regions where there is political conflict and political instability, all of this extra layer of climate-related hazards can really exacerbate things. It can really intensify conflicts between landowners for resources between different nations for water and other resources. I think generally the concern in a lot of parts of the world is that you do have an extra layer of vulnerability and hazard on top of what already can be pretty fraught situations. I think that goes for the Horn of Africa as well.

Brian Lehrer: Speaking of places where we might not at first associate it with climate change or climate change as a bad thing, here is Lawrence calling in from Anchorage, Alaska. Lawrence, you're on WNYC. Thanks so much for calling. Hello from New York.

Lawrence: Hello. Thank you. Thank you for taking my call. I appreciate that. I've lived in Anchorage on and off since the early '80s, and I've had a lot of experience here with some weather. My friend was an amateur weather meteorologist here. A few summers ago, we had unprecedented heat here. We had temperatures that reached 100 degrees in Anchorage if you can believe that.

Anchorage is not the interior of Alaska where it could get up that high. We're out on the Cook Inlet, which is the coastal, a little more coastal influence, unprecedented heat, and followed by days and days of 80-plus-degree weather. Anchorage, if it got up to 75, that was a hot day. Then that was followed recently by a drought which occurred last spring into the summer where we had a drought for two months.

We had zero rain, which is unprecedented. We had wildfires here in Anchorage, which is scary because it's a city of 300,000 people, and we do have a lot of places which are forested nearby. Then that followed immediately after the 4th of July, we had a summer that was unprecedentedly rainy. It rained every day last summer. Just about every day we had unprecedented rains.

Then that was followed by this winter, which was a historic winter for snow and cold. This is one of the coldest Aprils we've ever had. We still have several feet of snow on the ground here in Anchorage, which is unprecedented. Usually, by now, most of the snow is gone.

Brian Lehrer: Lawrence, what does this all say to you if climate change is supposed to be warming, and it may not be a straight line, but it's up, up, up, up, up, more or less, but one of the weird effects that you're describing is so much cold this winter?

Lawrence: Well, what it is is a land of extremes. I think climate change is all about going from extremes and not necessarily a straight line. It could be cold and warm and then lots of rain. Look at California. They had a drought then followed by historic rains. It's just all about extremes, and that's what we seem to be experiencing here on the West Coast particularly. In the Arctic, things are happening here that villages are sinking.

There's a lot of tundra that the permafrost is melting. We have a lot of extreme things going on here. I think that's what climate change is all about. It's not necessarily just warming, it's, I think, extreme weather.

Brian Lehrer: Thanks for the report.

Lawrence: That's my opinion.

Brian Lehrer: Thanks for the report from Anchorage, Lawrence. I guess you're an early bird because it's only about to turn seven o'clock in the morning there. Thanks-

Lawrence: Yes, yes. [chuckles] Thank you. I appreciate it.

Brian Lehrer: -for being up and articulate so early and chiming in. Thank you. Raymond, what do you think about that caller from Alaska?

Raymond Zhong: Alaska's always been a land of weather extremes, but certainly, he's right that it's not just about temperature, it's about temperature cascading into precipitation and lots of other forms as well. The extremes are the things that scientists are worried about.

Brian Lehrer: I think it's a lesson for people who don't follow climate change very closely and think, "Well, it's going to be better in really cold places like Alaska. It's going to be worse in really hot places like in the South." He was describing some of the effects on communities, and it's not that simple, right?

Raymond Zhong: Yes. Even if you think maybe Alaska might be better off if it were warmer on average, the transition process getting to that point still means lots of disruption to infrastructure, to people, to communities in the meantime. That process of going from a cold state to even a moderate state as you described, lots of melting of permafrost, infrastructure built on permafrost, forest fires in the meantime, it's happening more quickly than people, than societies can adapt in many cases.

Brian Lehrer: Let's stay in the Pacific Northwest since that's been such a locus of this conversation so far and of that study you're reporting on. Here's Zach in Portland, Oregon. Zach, you're on WNYC. Thank you for calling in.

Zach: Thanks for having me. First time, long time. It was really scary here in Portland, I got to say, because it was at the same time as the 4th fire, and it was 118 degrees. We had to rent a portable AC unit. Our cat was freaking out. We had to get a hotel room even, one night.

Brian Lehrer: Wow. First time you had to buy an AC in Portland?

Zach: Yes, totally. It never gets that hot. The wildfire also, that was really scary because we didn't know where to go. We couldn't go outside of our house because it was smokey and then we had to be inside. It was so hot. We were trapped in there. It was a really scary experience.

Brian Lehrer: Wait, Zach, I think your cat just made its radio debut.

Zach: That's right. Nina's first time on the air just like me.

Brian Lehrer: Hello, Nina. I'm sure you're very cute. Zach, thank you very much for checking in. I really appreciate it. You hear the distress in his voice, Raymond, in addition to the facts of what was going on. I guess he was largely describing the summer before last in Portland, and so here we are on May 2nd and they may be anticipating this summer with dread. Is it going to be like last year? Is it going to be like two years ago? From a policy standpoint, what type of actions are studies like the one you report on and stories like the ones we've been hearing from our callers prompt?

Raymond Zhong: It's a little bit tricky. With this study, they really simplified a little bit. There's so many things that cause society to be vulnerable to the heat. Just as the caller mentioned, whether people have ACs, whether their homes are insulated, or whether the homes can cool themselves a little bit better, there's so many things that go into it, but this study focuses on just whether they've had that experience.

It doesn't necessarily mean we should be pumping trillions of dollars into Germany to help them adapt. I think it is an issue that a lot of parts of the world are thinking about now. What is the future if it's going to be much hotter? The UK itself last year had a pretty remarkable heat wave. There is some talk now about how new buildings can be made more-- That the new buildings trap less heat.

AC adoption is something that's on the table, although, of course, air conditioners use a lot of electricity. It's not easy. It's not quick. Even societies that have experienced that kind of extreme heat can't necessarily turn themselves around immediately before the next summer. It's a long-term process of adaptation, and I think, it's interesting to see what's happened even in the Pacific Northwest in just two years.

Brian Lehrer: Since this is a global take, let me get one more caller in here who's going to talk about a very different part of the world that we've mostly been discussing, Southern Africa. Gotti in Orange County, you're on WNYC. Hi, Gotti.

Gotti: Hi. How are you? Thank you for having me on.

Brian Lehrer: Certainly.

Gotti: First-time caller but a frequent listener.

Brian Lehrer: Good.

Gotti: I wanted to bring attention to the fact that Malawi in Southern Africa and Mozambique suffered an extreme in terms of Cyclone Freddy, which brought in an excessive amount of rain, caused excessive flooding mainly in Southern Malawi and upper parts of Mozambique. Then this last week, the northern part of Malawi had excessive continuous rain for almost three weeks with excessive flooding of the lake, as well as all parts of even the higher lands.

People have just been displaced. Especially at this time of the year being that it's normally harvest, they have had their gardens flooded, so they will not be able to harvest. Besides flooding, excessive rain, you also will end up with difficulties in terms of food. The cold weather last year was reported by my relatives to be extremely cold, but you're having these extremes of very heavy rain at the time when it should have been dissipating, and then very cold weather in our cold season.

Brian Lehrer: Gotti, thank you for checking in and giving people that report. We really appreciate it. Raymond Zhong from The New York Times, a climate reporter for The Times, as we wrap up, we've heard stories about extremes of both heat and cold, of both drought and rainfall from Anchorage to Malawi. Here we are in the global warming, the global weirding era.

Raymond Zhong: Exactly. The thing I would add maybe to wrap up, for this year, it's the big changes that we are moving in the Pacific from La Niña to El Niño. Both of these phenomena cause different effects in different parts of the world, but generally, El Niño is associated with higher global temperatures on average. We've been talking about global warming, but we've been in La Niña for the last three years, which might have actually masked some of the effects of that global warming. As we move into El Niño, the full picture might become a little clearer in terms of what higher temperatures are doing around the world.

Brian Lehrer: Of course, this is all in a long-term context. I think that's assumed and understood by a lot of the listeners. Extremes can happen at any time anywhere as an anomaly. It's when it's a pattern and it's getting more and more and going in certain directions as the earth gets warmer and warmer every year, as we've had most of the record warm temperatures on earth just in the last 10 years. That, of course, is the context of our climate story of the week and of the stories we heard today. We thank Raymond Zhong, New York Times climate reporter. Thank you so much.

Raymond Zhong: Thanks, Brian.

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