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Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer on WNYC, and yes, there was a red wave on Long Island too. Some key races. Democratic State Senator Todd Kaminsky, he's been prominent in the state senate. He lost the Nassau County District Attorney's race. He was trying to move into that job. He was haunted by his 2019 vote for bail reform that seemed to draw voters to tough-on-crime Republican Ann Donnelly.

The issue spilled over to other races. Like Nassau County Executive as Republican Bruce Blake then declared victory over incumbent Democrat Laura Curran but she was also hurt by her own record according to analyses that we've seen as increased property taxes likely brought Nassau County voters out against her in large numbers relatively.

Speaking of turn out, registered Republicans were certainly more motivated to head to the polls. In Nassau County alone, nearly 97,000 Republicans versus just 76,000 Democrats voted on Election Day at all according to the County Board of Elections. What else encouraged Republican voters and what do these results mean for the future of Long Island politics, or for the state as a whole?

Remember I mentioned at the top of the show, the Politico New York take this morning, which notes that Ann Donnelly became the first Republican to win a district attorney's race in Nassau County since 2001, and that, in the past, nine gubernatorial elections, the candidate who won bellwether Nassau won the state as a whole that from Politico New York.

Could blue New York Governor, that race tomorrow, the blue New York Governor's race be even more competitive next year than we generally assume as seen through the lens of this week’s election? With me now is Newsday reporter Rachelle Blidner who covers Suffolk County government and politics primarily. Thanks for coming on the show, Rachelle. Welcome to WNYC.

Rachelle Blidner: Thanks so much for having me.

Brian Lehrer: Long Island listeners, your turn. What just happened? 212-433-WNYC. Did you vote in any of the Long Island racers? Are you a disappointed Democrat or a psyched Republican? Maybe this is the first time you voted for a Republican candidate, what made you switch? What issues brought you to the polls, public safety, property taxes, vaccine mandates, or maybe you're just a Democrat who stayed home?

Did you take a win for granted or were you decidedly uninspired? 212-433-WNYC. Or anyone from Long Island call in with an analysis of what happened, 212-433-9692, or tweet @BrianLehrer. Rachelle from Newsday, do you think there was a single overriding factor encouraging Long Islanders to vote Republican?

Rachelle Blidner: Republicans I spoke to cited a mix of things that really drove Republican voters to the polls. There were concerns about public safety after bail reform passed in 2019, there were better get-out-the-vote operations by Republican campaigns. Also, there is just anger at Democratic Control in Washington and Albany and concerns that governance has moved too far to the left.

Brian Lehrer: The Ann Donnelly-Todd Kaminsky race for Nassau County DA is being touted as the marquee race that drew others along with it. I'll note that in Suffolk County, which you cover most of the time, a Republican also won for DA against an incumbent Democrat. In a way, maybe even worse there because it wasn't even an open seat. How would you talk about the DA's race as the centerpiece of this story?

Rachelle Blidner: The DA's races really drove people to the polls. That was the race that especially Nassau people were really talking about. One key thing in those races is bail reform. That is what both Republican candidates in those races really spoke about and really spoke against. They really try to pin their Democratic opponents to that bail reform passing.

According to one political consultant I've spoken with, bail reform in suburbs like Nassau and Suffolk has been extremely unpopular. It's been more unpopular than anything he's seen in recent years. That issue really got people to the polls with concerns about what's going to happen with crime and public safety.

Brian Lehrer: Did that break along racial lines? Could you tell?

Rachelle Blidner: We don't have that data yet.

Brian Lehrer: The suburban areas and of course, people who don't know Long Island, there are more urban areas of Nassau and Suffolk County as well as more what you might think of as classically suburban areas. If it was the suburban areas, which would be largely white also, that were the most upset about bail reform, did those areas actually see a spike in crime or was this just fear of a potential future?

Rachelle Blidner: What's interesting is according to both the Nassau and Suffolk County police departments according to reports over the summer and this fall, overall crime in both counties is actually down, but shootings are up, which has caused people to be concerned. Again, the issue of crime has always been a key factor in races for district attorney and has been a key factor in people winning. That even goes back to the Bush-Dukakis Presidential contest with the Willie Horton ads, and people using crime and trying to get voters motivated. In the Willie Horton case, as one expert said, really using racial dog whistles.

Brian Lehrer: Racial dog whistles. To be sure and we're going to talk about that more in our next segment as well with Celeste Headlee. Was there actual crime or let's say an increase in actual crime being committed by repeat offenders who are out on bail? Or, again, was this more of a theoretical concern that people did not have the evidence to tie to bail reform, per se?

Rachelle Blidner: The candidates who raised bail reform as an issue they claimed it was increasing crime, but they never had any data that they used to back that up. In the Suffolk DA's race, Republican Ray Tierney who did win, in all of his press conferences, he used very specific cases of defendants who were arrested for a crime. They were released from jail, either on bail or their crime was not serious enough to be bail eligible and were re-arrested again for a more serious crime. He used specific examples and specific cases, but overall, there has been no data showing crime has increased. Overall crime is down in both counties.

Brian Lehrer: Shobha in Nassau County. You’re on WNYC. Hi, Shobha.

Shobha: Hi, good morning, Brian. Thank you, longtime listener. Todd Kaminsky came knocking on my door a few years ago when he was running and had a bit of a chat with him, but I found that locally in the elections in Nassau County, we tend to, within the local village, speak more about the issues rather than voting along party lines. Whereas in Suffolk County, especially after the 2016 and '17 election cycle, we find that it's more substantial in terms of issue discussions versus Suffolk where it's more divisive the further east we go.

Whether it's about gangs, whether it's about racial discrimination, but we tend to focus more in terms of crime, in terms of support, decreasing poverty, more community help. I am a registered Democrat but in terms of Mr. Kaminsky, I found that some of the things that he has done has been beneficial to both Democrats and Republicans. Hence the reason why I think a lot of us tend to look at that or it forces us to look at our votes or voting habits through that lens rather than whether it's Republican or Democrat.

Brian Lehrer: And he lost.

Shobha: He tends to go for unification more.

Brian Lehrer: Well, it didn't work in this case. Jason in Great Neck, you're on WNYC. Hi, Jason.

Jason: Hi. Thank you so much for taking my call. I was listening yesterday and today, and I feel like the narrative of this "red waves" in this show and New York Times is a lot about "What did the Democrats do wrong?" I'm wondering why the conversation isn't "What did the Republicans do right?"

Brian Lehrer: Fair enough. It obviously needs to be both things, and hopefully, we're doing both things. I think one of the reasons why the conversation would begin with, what did the Democrats do wrong, is that the Democrats were in power in these places. The governor of Virginia was a Democrat, the governor of New Jersey, hung on, but almost lost, was a Democrat.

These offices on Long Island, the two DAs in the two counties, Nassau County Executive, these were held by Democrats, and they lost the seats. Rachelle, it raises an excellent question, what about the balance, as you might see it as a Suffolk County reporter for Newsday, between what Republicans did right as well as what Democrats did wrong?

Rachelle Blidner: Sure, that is a great question. In Suffolk County, the Republican operation really updated its get out the voter operation, they worked to increase coordination between candidates and campaigns so that when they were knocking on doors they were talking to as many voters as possible, pushing more candidates. They increased voter turnout in early voting and absentee ballots. As the County Republican leader told me, they've tried to turn election day into their Super Bowl, where they're just trying to run up that score in terms of voter turnout.

They were very successful in driving their constituencies to the polls. One political consultant I spoke to said Democrats, maybe early enough, just weren't listening to the anger on the ground at Democratic control in DC and Albany, and were a little bit too late in trying to get ahead of that messaging.

Brian Lehrer: Scott in Nassau County, you're on WNYC. Hi, Scott.

Scott: Hey, thanks for having me on. I just wanted to mention what motivated myself and some of my other closer friends, we're all younger Republicans. I have to say, for us, it was mainly the DA race and a lot of the ballot propositions. You could say there could be discontent with Washington, but realistically, I don't link the two, I think that the local issues here are more important.

I also just wanted to quickly mention that, even though there might not be overall increase in crime in Nassau and Suffolk County, I think a lot of us remember the stories from the day that bail reform was initiated and people were getting released. We saw people immediately come out to re-offend as well as what happens in the city where you have people that are 40 times incarcerated back out. I remember the famous story about somebody who had shoplifted some 40 times in a row before finally being remanded. I think it's not so much that there is a rise in crime, but wanting to make sure that that doesn't happen in Nassau County.

Brian Lehrer: Thanks, Scott. You mentioned the ballot propositions, were there any one or two, because, depending on where you live, there were five or six around the state that you think motivated Republicans to vote against them?

Scott: I think specifically one, mainly because it seems nonsensical, at least to some of us to count non-citizens for canvassing and redistricting. Two, although I think that-- was that the one on the clean air and water? I'm sorry if I don't remember the numbers correctly.

Brian Lehrer: Yes, an environmental right in the state bill of rights. Yes, clean water, clean air, clean environment.

Scott: It might sound a bit funny to say this because I'm certainly for those things, but that to me is the kind of vague language that politicians then use later on to justify taking things away from you. Like in California, they're recently banning gas lawn mowers within a certain period of time. It's a nonsensical thing, but it was too vague. I would probably support something that was more specific because I'm all for those things, but just generally, a right to clean air. It's like, well, what does that mean? What does that give you then the right to do as a politician if I have a right to clean air and water?

Brian Lehrer: Scott, we really appreciate your call, call us again. Rachelle from Newsday, did that ring true to you that set of perceptions by a young Republican in Nassau County?

Rachelle Blidner: Yes, definitely. People that I've spoken to have said that concerns about bail reform and public safety was really an issue for them. The minority leader in the Suffolk legislature who is soon to become, at minimum, the majority leader because of the red wave. He was saying that when he was knocking on doors to campaign this year, people were asking him how they could get a gun permit for the first time. They were that concerned about their public safety. So that has definitely been an issue.

Brian Lehrer: Last question, why did this turn out for DA in Nassau and Suffolk generalize to the Nassau County Executive? Laura Curran, who I thought, without following it very closely, was fairly popular in Nassau County, she got defeated.

Rachelle Blidner: One political consultant I spoke to said she didn't lose because of her record. She was really just swept up in this red wave. She was down on election night only by about 12,000 votes, which could speak to the fact that some of the Republican voters who came out and voted for Ann Donnelly may be voted for Curran. Ultimately, Democrats said that they had voters who said they were going to go to the polls on Election Day and vote for her, but on the day of, many of them did not show up.

Brian Lehrer: Last question, do you think the results and the red wave and the motivation of Republican voters on Long Island put any particular Democratic members of Congress at risk for next year, Kathleen Rice in Nassau County, Tom Swasey whose district includes parts of Nassau as well as Queens?

Rachelle Blidner: Nassau still has trended very democratic in recent, especially national elections, they've gone blue in all the recent presidential races. I guess we'll have to see.

Brian Lehrer: Rachelle Blidner, Newsday reporter on the results, the red wave as they're calling it, in Nassau and Suffolk County on Long Island. Thank you for joining us.

Rachelle Blidner: Thank you.

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