Brian Lehrer: It's the Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC. Good morning, everyone. What a night on television for tuning in to see who won. You could choose the Emmy Awards on Fox, the NFL playoff game on ABC, or the Iowa caucuses on all the news channels, but ho-hum, there was little suspense in any of them as it turned out, right? If you bet on the favorites, Succession and The Bear, Donald Trump, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, you knew you were coming out ahead by pretty early in the evening. In fact, if we learned anything from the Iowa caucuses, maybe we learned that contrary to what we like to snarkily think, opinion polls and weather forecasts are both usually right. Like the polls predicted, Donald Trump won by 30 points. Like the weather service predicted, temperatures and wind chills were dangerously below zero.

Turnout was lower than in 2016, but it was still about the same as in 2008 and 2012, which were also years with serious competition in the Republican presidential field. That was interesting. The basic numbers were that Trump got about 51% of the vote to 21% for DeSantis, and 19% for Nikki Haley. Vivek Ramaswamy was in single digits, and one of the headlines from Iowa, I don't know if you've seen this, is that Ramaswamy has now suspended his campaign. Despite Trump's record margin of victory for an Iowa caucus night, The Washington Post reminds us that 51% still means nearly half the Republican caucus goers chose not to vote for Trump despite his presumed dominance in the party, so what does that portend for the general election?

We'll talk about what happened in Iowa and what comes next with Amber Phillips, who writes The Washington Post's daily politics newsletter called The 5-Minute Fix. Lucky for me, Amber's motto according to her webpage is, "No question about politics is too small or too dumb for this newsletter." Amber, always good to have you on to answer my dumb questions. Welcome back to WNYC.

Amber Phillips: Oh, I love talking to you. Thank you, Brian.

Brian Lehrer: Can we say, first of all, that the major polls sometimes get things very wrong, but in general, if you're counting on polls being wrong as part of your political strategy, you do so at your peril?

Amber Phillips: Yes, I think that's exactly right. Obviously, polls are a snapshot in time, right? That's where they might get things wrong. Things could have changed from Friday or over the weekend when the latest polls showed Trump winning Iowa, to Monday when people actually voted. That could happen in the primaries and caucuses to come, but it would have to be a seismic shift in Republican politics for things to change and for a poll snapshot in time to be inaccurate when it comes time for people to vote, and we didn't see that this first time people voted in this 2024 presidential race.

Brian Lehrer: Right. The dead-on accuracy of the polling, 30% margin, actually got me thinking that one thing that may have changed since 2016 when Trump was elected president, at that time, I think there were people lying to posters about their intention to vote for Trump because they felt a certain shame about preferring someone who came off to many people as a wannabe authoritarian, racist, sexist, even sexual assaulter according to himself on the Access Hollywood tape, we remember that. Now that shame maybe is gone. Republican America largely embraces Trump and what others consider his increasingly threatening and hateful language, and the sense of shame over backing someone who calls his political opponent's vermin and says immigrants are poisoning our blood is gone. Do you see evidence of that change in your reporting?

Amber Phillips: I do, yes. Now, I'll say when I talk to Republican strategists here in Washington, gosh, they wish that Trump were not the nominee, even if some of them won't say it publicly, and Republican lawmakers as well. But when it comes to the voters, I think this community that Trump has created, it was epitomized by those white caps, if you saw them. If you ever tuned in to see the Iowa caucus, you'd see the precinct captains for Trump, they were essentially there to talk about Trump and why you should support Trump. There were party volunteers who had these white caps that the Trump campaign was handing out, and it was this badge of honor to say, "I'm a leader in my local community for Donald Trump." I thought that really epitomized the difference between 2016 and 2024.

Then the other thing I'll show is that there's this exit poll The Washington Post did, which is, "Do you think Joe Biden legitimately won the presidency in 2020?" Two-thirds of Iowa caucus goers said, "No, I don't think he did." That just underscores that they are not ashamed or afraid to talk about this community of Trump, even when it's wrong and false.

Brian Lehrer: Yes, and I guess it reflects a human tendency maybe, to believe even demonstrably disproven lies from people you like or people you think are on your side.

Amber Phillips: Yes, I think that's right. I think community is the word to keep coming back to, Brian. I know Trump's critics, like all of them will say it's a cult, but this is something that -- Trump's opponents hoped DeSantis transcended Trump, and that he could sort of take over this community of Trump. But Trump himself is very much the leader of it, and I think it's about being part of a community, and their shared beliefs and facts are not just that Joe Biden didn't win, which of course is false, but that Donald Trump is the best person to lead them. That's what we saw in Iowa, and it's what we should expect to see in the majority of states that are voting next.

Brian Lehrer: Somebody on MSNBC last night, and granted it was MSNBC, but somebody said, "A religion is where God tells you what God will do for you. A cult is when the leader tells you what you have to do for them." For what it's worth, a little commentary that stuck in my brain. But maybe more newsworthy than the Iowa vote itself along the lines we've been discussing, is the CBS News YouGov poll that came out Sunday that found 80% of Republicans nationally, 80% agree with Trump's statement that immigrants entering the country illegally are poisoning the blood of the country. Now, just 20% of Democrats agreed with that, but 80% of Republicans. Do you have any take on what that finding means to those respondents?

I mean, that's very different from simply saying we have too many migrants all at once for what the country can afford to settle, like the Mayor of New York and other people say. The "poisoning our blood" seems like a racial or ethnic purity and supremacy sentiment, just the way Hitler meant it when he used that phrase in his book, Mein Kampf. Can you think of any other way to think of that, or that those 80% of Republicans who responded agreeing with the statement might be thinking of that?

Amber Phillips: Yes. I actually on Friday, before this poll came out, did talk to immigration experts and Republican strategist about this sentiment in the Republican party, and I'm happy to talk about that. I first want to say, Brian, I think you're so smart to point out this poll and Republican sentiment on immigration, because it is defining why Republicans are Republican, and why they support Donald Trump over anyone else in this election. It's what my colleagues freezing their bums off in Iowa heard from voters over and over again, is like, "I'm nervous about the border." I've seen polls similarly say this in Wisconsin. Obviously, these are states far away from the border. Donald Trump mentioned it when he spoke at a local precinct, about -- I think he said similarly vile stuff, not quite poisoning the blood of this country, but they're coming from jails, and just appearing to demonize these immigrants. It's a huge part of Republican politics right now, and I think it could come to define the general election as well.

What to make of it? First, there really is a border crisis. Border crossings have been at or near record highs pretty much since Biden took office. I talked to an immigration rights advocate who said we're just in the era of displacement and more migration period, climate change, economies crashing, COVID. This is all just out of Biden's control, immigration advocates and Democrats argue, but there is a border crisis right now. The border has been a weak spot for Biden pretty much since he took office. There's just more chaotic situations on the border, and the policies have sometimes helped that and ease the border crossing, sometimes his critics have argued have made it worse, and so I think Republicans like Trump smell blood in the water, if you will.

Then finally, I've seen polls that Americans trust Republicans on the border more than Democrats right now. Immigration experts told me this could be explained by the fact that when the border is chaotic, Americans tend to want much stricter border policies, and who is the party that has really worn this cloak of being strict on the border? It's Republicans. All of that, I think Trump is very astutely reading these undercurrents about the border, and politics, immigration, and leaning into it in a way that is like he's bringing up comparisons to Hitler. And this community we've talked about where Republicans just want to be part of what Trump is talking about, it seems to be working on immigration as well as election denialism.

Brian Lehrer: Right. People could think the border is out of control and think Republicans would be better at controlling it, without thinking that racial thought, that ethnic thought that immigrants are poisoning our blood, however we want to take that, about intermarriage or just the percentage of who is in the American population these days. One could think that Republicans are better at controlling the border without having those hateful thoughts, I'll call them hateful, and yet 80% of Republicans responding to that survey did. Listeners, if you have any questions or thoughts about the Iowa caucus results, first vote in the nation in the presidential election process, 212-433-WNYC, or on that CBS YouGov poll, 212-433-9692 for Amber Phillips from The Washington Post. Questions or comments, 212-433-WNYC. Call or text 212-433-9692.

Another interesting finding in that poll suggests whether people who take that "poisoning our blood" position are doing so to follow Trump, or because Trump is just reflecting them. CBS YouGov finds when they ask about that phrase without attributing it to Trump, support for the statement goes down a little, but still, two-thirds of Republicans still agree with it, even without it being a statement of loyalty to Trump, because they don't say that he said it, not asking if you agree with him. Asking if you agree with the sentiment. I don't know what we take from that.

We've talked on the show a fair amount since 2016 about whether Trump is leading America to more extreme views on the right, or whether Trump is reflecting what's out there. It's a difficult reality that other Americans have to confront, that Mitt Romney and John McCain, the last two presidential nominees, were just too moderate for the Republican electorate to get enthusiastic about it, and Trump really is. Instead of people saying Trump is not who America is, he is who America is, at least a significant percentage of America. Any thoughts from your reporting?

Amber Phillips: Yes, I also don't have an answer to that question, despite reporting on it and thinking about it for years. Is Trump leading America to this, or opening up what was already there, or a mix of both? But that might be beside the point. Trump's been on the scene for eight years now, and like you said, Brian, it is where he's leading the Republican Party. I think another example of this is how he's cloaked himself in this victimhood by saying he's been charged 91 times, it's not fair the Justice Department is going after him for all these different cases. I think if any reasonable person were to look at all these charges, as I've talked to legal experts and former federal prosecutors, they think he's probably guilty of at least some of these, right? [chuckles] 91 charges for various different things, he's probably guilty of at least some of these, and we'll soon find out what the courts of law say.

Trump has been able to create the narrative that he's a victim, and none of it is true against him. I think he tested those waters a little bit right before the Iowa caucus by going to court twice the week before the Iowa caucus for various different cases. He didn't have to show up in court for his fraud trial in New York, or for the arguments that he should be immune from all prosecutions related to his actions as president, but he did. I think he showed America and showed his opponents that he could talk about these charges, which are going to dominate more and more of his campaigning as the months go on, and still win in a very dominant way. That's just another example of how he's leading, specifically the Republican Party, where he wants them to go.

Brian Lehrer: Right, and will the 91 charges, or however those charges have progressed in any of those trials, help or hurt him in a general election? That remains to be seen, but obviously, he's finding these to be effective campaign events, which is why he's showing up at some of them in person. Brian in Randolph, New Jersey, wants to react to poisoning our blood. Brian, you're on WNYC. Hello.

Brian: Hi, Brian. Thank you for taking my call. I just want to say I used to be a huge fan of yours and of WNYC, but I've been terribly disappointed in your coverage of the pogroms against Jews in Israel and the ongoing antisemitism, but I digress. I think the country Democrats, in particular in the Biden administration, in his re-election efforts are making a huge mistake by focusing on this "poisoning the blood of our country" quip by Trump. Trump doesn't know what he's talking about half the time. He doesn't put words together very articulately, but what Trump is clearly talking about is the fentanyl and other dangerous and illegal drugs coming across the border. Simple as that, recognized by many Democrats, by many independents across the country. It has nothing to do with Nazi rhetoric, and continuing to pigeonhole that is just going to drive reasonable voters away. Thank you for your time.

Brian Lehrer: Thank you very much. Well, he says the comparisons to -- and I think it was a little clearer to our screener when he said it's going to turn Democrats off, it's going to hurt the Democrats if people keep comparing Trump to Hitler with the poisoning our blood. But of course, it's Democratic politicians largely who are jumping out front to make that comparison and point out that Hitler used that phrase in Mein Kampf as part of the run-up to staging the Holocaust. Trump claims he never read Mein Kampf. I think we can probably take him at his word about that, but the fact that he comes up with that same language spontaneously might be even more frightening. To the caller's argument that Trump wasn't referring to the immigrants themselves, but to the fentanyl that's coming across the border, is there any evidence for that, Amber?

Amber Phillips: There's not. Great question, Brian. I fact-check this because [unintelligible 00:18:18] suburban mom, I hear Republicans say, "Well, the fentanyl is coming across the border from these illegal immigrants. It's coming to your communities." That scares me. I perk up, I want to listen. The cool part about my job is I get to call experts and fact-check this --

Brian Lehrer: Yes, and fentanyl is coming across the border. Not that that's a non-problem.

Amber Phillips: Right. The fact is, it is coming across the border, but Republicans, these are just facts, mislead when they blame illegal immigrants for this. I talked to Alex Nowrasteh, he's an immigration analyst for the libertarian-leaning Cato Institute. He said in 2021, 86% of convicted fentanyl drug traffickers were US citizens. It's coming across the border, it's not from illegal immigrants, it's being smuggled through legal ports of entry. That's a different problem.

Brian Lehrer: That's an interesting fact-check, but to the caller's specific point, because I don't want to misrepresent Trump, and I don't want to misrepresent anybody, so that includes Trump, is he saying that that's because fentanyl is coming across the border? Even if your fact-check indicates that it's not mostly people entering illegally, is that what he meant by poison -- they're poisoning our blood with fentanyl, as opposed to with their ethnically different presence?

Amber Phillips: I think we can pull up other comments Trump has made about immigrants and migrants and piece them together, and fentanyl is one piece of the point he's making, but it's not the entire piece. I'm actually doing it right now, to pull up exactly other things he said that really align with your theory, Brian, that he's talking about ethnic [crosstalk]--

Brian Lehrer: Right, and we don't even have -- You referenced before, when he started his campaign on day one in 2015 down the escalator at Trump Tower, the famous moment, and he started right in on --

Amber Phillips: Right, bringing drugs and crime.

Brian Lehrer: Right, and some of them are good people. One more thing on this line of conversation, Ramaswamy has now dropped out, and another related newsworthy reality from Iowa, though from a focus group of one voter -- I don't know if you saw this NBC news clip, but a voter, I guess a Ramaswamy supporter, admitted to Ramaswamy's wife in an NBC news segment, it was all on video, talking directly to his wife that the most common questions this voter was getting about Ramaswamy from other Republicans she knew ahead of the caucuses were about his dark skin and his religion.

Amber Phillips: Yes, I didn't see that. I think it's interesting to step back and see that the Republicans did have one of their most diverse primaries they've ever had. Ramaswamy, you had Nikki Haley, a woman person of color -- who else am I missing? Those were the big ones.

Brian Lehrer: Well, the two of them.

Amber Phillips: The two of them, yes.

Brian Lehrer: I mean, earlier, Tim Scott, but --

Amber Phillips: Tim Scott, that's right. Thank you. Although he dropped out, and Ramaswamy has dropped out, and Nikki Haley is yet to coalesce to be a major opponent against Trump. I think it's just interesting that you did have some of the most diverse Republican presidential candidates we've ever had, and yet the broader Republican conversation is about race and whether immigrants are -- I found another Trump quote I'll share, "Loading up classes with children that don't speak the language, or they don't support a religion," he said. It's just so white supremacist-loaded, and I don't know how candidates like Ramaswamy, or Nikki Haley, or Tim Scott, or anyone else who doesn't believe that kind of narrative talk about it.

Brian Lehrer: Many political analysts will say, I'm sure you will say Iowa is not too indicative, especially a one-party caucus in Iowa, not too indicative of the nation as a whole. It's a small state, it's a disproportionately rural state, it's an overwhelmingly white state compared to the nation as a whole, so take it with a grain of salt or many grains of salt as a bellwether for what might come in November. Despite that, I think Bridget in Manhattan is going to put this result in a much larger, in fact, global perspective. Bridget, you're on WNYC. Thank you for calling in.

Bridget: Yes. Let me close my radio. Thank you so much for taking my call. I want to make this point. Number one, I heard Trump yesterday after his speech, talking about bringing -- all the border crossings was about mental patients coming out of prison, I mean, demonizing in the worst way. And of course, this is all false. Now, the point I want to make is very clear. There is what they call a populist movement all over the world. There is a rise of fascism, or it's very real in so many countries. They are leading, they are winning the elections, and this country is going the same way. We cannot look at the Trump victory, which by the way, I agree, it's Iowa, it does not represent the rest of the country, but it's no surprise that this rise in fascism is affecting America. It is.

It's been during his presidency, he prepared it, and now he's coming back and forth, and all these people following him are really with him on that basis. All over Europe, they are all anti-immigrants. This is the politics of Marie Le Pen. In Germany, it's even worse. They condemned Angela Merkel when she opened the door to immigrants, which I think was a great thing, so we have to look at this victory globally, not just this country.

Brian Lehrer: Yes, thank you.

Bridget: I don't believe the whole country feels this way, but it's very dangerous, and his rhetoric is full of lies. Full of lies.

Brian Lehrer: Bridget, thank you very much. Yes, those parties may be rising in France and Germany, as I'm sure you know, Bridget. They're actually winning a little east of there in Poland, in Hungary, and then if you want to look at Argentina, that recent election, if you want to look at Modi in India that way. This kind of strong-man politics winning through democracy, but then using the election victory to weaken democracy happening all over the world. Amber, that's one of the biggest fears that Democrats have, right? That's why another finding in one of the recent polls, I don't remember if it was at CBS YouGov or something else that came out in the last few days, is that Democrats tend to see democracy as the biggest issue in 2024, and Republicans tend to see the economy.

Amber Phillips: Yes, I've seen that in other surveys as well. I think it's interesting that President Biden is hoping independents start seeing democracy as a top issue, and so he is starting to campaign explicitly assuming as if Trump were the nominee on democracy being in danger. That was one of the big speeches he gave on the third anniversary of the January 6th attack, and it was a major campaign speech for him.

Brian Lehrer: That's interesting. I think you gave a very interesting data point there that I didn't know, that the concern about the threat to democracy is rising among independents. Because I heard a lot of criticism among Biden supporters when Biden gave that speech on January 6th. Like, people know about January 6th, people know who Trump is, what Trump is, people know how they feel about that. What people really want to know in 2024 is who's going to do better at fixing the economy, and at generally making life more affordable, generally improving quality of life day to day in the United States. That speech was maybe tone-deaf to the moment, that was the criticism, but you're telling me that the speech was really very strategic because of what they're seeing in the Biden campaign among independents?

Amber Phillips: Yes. Otherwise, he wouldn't be talking about this. He did try for a little bit to talk about 'Bidenomics', and he's since dropped that, realizing that his trumpeting up of what he'd done for the economy sounds tone-deaf right now. He goes out and he says there's no confusion, this is what he said, about who Trump is and what he intends to do. "If democracy fails, we'll lose that freedom. Trump admires authoritarian leaders and dictators." President Biden is saying this because his campaign thinks it's a winning argument, that this concern, if he hammers it home enough, will trump any concerns about the economy. That this is such an existential concern that independent voters in particular will say, "This is more important than inflation, and childcare, and my rent."

Brian Lehrer: More on Trump and Mein Kampf and poisoning our blood, just to acknowledge that there are diverse points of view out there among the listeners. A listener texts, "I actually agree somewhat with that. Don't say Hitler-caller. I think if anti-Trumpers invoke Mein Kampf, they should do so very gently, as if to people who have no idea the significance of a similarity. Being more alarmist than that is, I think a little too strong and will turn people off."

Another listener though writes, when I said there's no indication that Trump -- Well, Trump says he never read Mein Kampf. A listener writes, "Trump owns and probably has read a book of Hitler's speeches. His first wife said he kept that book on his nightstand." Someone else corrects what I said about Poland, or at least updates it, "Poland recently voted the Law and Order Party out of power." Another one, "Polish voters overthrew the right-wing government in recent elections." Who knows? Maybe that's the very beginning of this curve toward authoritarian governments being elected, it has now crested and is going down in the other direction. A smattering of comments coming in on text message.

A few more minutes with Amber Phillips, who writes The 5-Minute Fix politics newsletter for The Washington Post on the morning after the Iowa caucuses. Let's just talk briefly, which I think was supposed to be the headline, about DeSantis and Haley. They both spun last night's results as positive for them, despite being only around 20% a piece, and for Haley, despite not having beaten DeSantis, as she was hoping to do, and come in at least second. How do you see the implications for either of them?

Amber Phillips: Yes, even though they both spun it as positive for them, you're right, Brian, it's really positive for Trump, because Haley was hoping to coalesce as the anti-Trump candidate, and then hope he stumbles and take him down, and she has a couple of states coming up that are voting: New Hampshire, which is more anti-Trump-ish than Iowa, and then South Carolina, her home state. Even though she's behind in the polls, there's a small world in which that happens for her, but it would require DeSantis dropping out. DeSantis has shown no indication of that, because he did come in second at Iowa, which was behind the scenes his campaign's goal.

What it means is they fight and split the anti-Trump coalition, and Trump has the potential to do what his campaign has predicted, which is steamroll through the next couple of states: New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, and then Super Tuesday in early March, even though the January 6th trial is slated to start, win big there. Then his campaign hopes he locks up the nomination by March. Time has probably already run out, but is really running out for Nikki Haley to have any chance to overtake Trump. It required, probably her plan for DeSantis to drop out after Iowa, and that didn't happen.

Brian Lehrer: Yes, and DeSantis is skipping New Hampshire and going right to state number three to campaign, which is Haley's home state of South Carolina. Haley may run into a brick wall at home. She may do well in New Hampshire, but then if she loses to Trump badly in South Carolina, presumably not to DeSantis, but to Trump, where the polls show him way ahead of her despite the fact that she was governor there, is that it? That could be soon.

Amber Phillips: Right. I think it would be impossible for Haley to make the argument she should continue the campaign. She could do well in New Hampshire, but if she can't win in her home state, granted, she last ran there for governor 10 years ago. If she can't do that, then it would be very difficult, Republican strategists I talk to say, for her to continue the campaign. Then I don't know where DeSantis's wall is. Where does he hit it? He got a little bit of a lifeline coming in second in Iowa. Like you said, he's not expected to do well in New Hampshire where there are less evangelical voters, and are just a little more skeptical of that Trump-type persona that he and Trump have, but I don't know where his wall is and what happens to him. For Nikki Haley, it's probably South Carolina.

Brian Lehrer: A few more texts coming in. Interestingly, two kind of related to each other. One says, "Not sure it matters if Trump has read Hitler's exact words, because we know Steve Bannon has." Then another one, "A lot of the ideas of Trump come from Stephen Miller. There was an interview on NPR, I believe, before Trump ever took office with Stephen Miller, and it sounded like an interview of 1939 Germany, so I believe Stephen Miller is the mastermind of several of Trump's ideas." Those are interesting, right? Steve Bannon and Stephen Miller putting some of these words into Trump's head and coming out of his mouth, even if he himself has not studied the speeches of Adolf Hitler or doesn't care about them.

Someone else writes, "The economy is doing well, please don't repeat Republican talking points. Inflation and rents are too high, agreed, but salaries are up and unemployment is very low." All true, but people are still interested in further economic recovery, and definitely are looking for a candidate in any presidential election who are going to be the best for the next four years of the economy. I will read this final text, Amber. Listener writes, "I really like this guest expert. She is smart and eloquent. Also, I'm from Iowa, and left in 2009. It's so disheartening and morose to watch its decline. I'm from Des Moines, but my mom grew up on a farm in rural Iowa. That, plus living in LA and NYC, I've seen the full spectrum, and I don't know what the solution is." But I'll go back to the beginning of the text, "I really like this guest expert. She is smart and eloquent." You think that's a good way to close?

Amber Phillips: I'll take it. And it wasn't my mom, she doesn't live in Iowa, so thank you.

Brian Lehrer: What? No, not your --

Amber Phillips: I was saying it wasn't my mom writing it.

Brian Lehrer: Oh, it wasn't your mom who wrote that text, right.

Amber Phillips: Because she doesn't live in Iowa. [crosstalk]--

Brian Lehrer: I think it was your cousin, though. I think it was your cousin. All right. Amber Phillips, smart, eloquent writer of the daily politics newsletter from The Washington Post, The 5-Minute Fix, which comes out in the afternoon, by the way. Usually, late afternoon, right?

Amber Phillips: Yes, exactly. Late afternoon, yes. The goal is just to -- I follow politics all day and talk to experts, just like Brian does, and run it down for you in a real quick newsletter so you don't have to.

Brian Lehrer: Thanks, Amber.

Amber Phillips: Thank you, Brian.

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