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Brian: Brian Lehrer on WNYC. It's only eight days since election day 2022 with its mixed results for each party. Already the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination is shaping up. Last Thursday, just two days after election day, I happen to hear Chris Christie on Fox Radio with Brian Kilmeade say this when asked if he's going to enter the '24 race.

Chris: I'm certainly thinking about it, Brian. I think we need to have people who know how to win general elections in blue states again. I've certainly proven that over the course of my career winning two terms in a state like New Jersey the last time was 61% of the vote when no one wins in blue states like that from the Republican party.

Brian: Chris Christie last Thursday. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis didn't have to express an interest in running because so many Republicans and commentators are voluntarily calling him the front-runner and the future of the party after his 20-point reelection win in the former swing state of Florida. Then on Monday, just six days after the election, Mike Pence began a book tour for his new autobiography called, So Help Me God, a book tour, of course, often being a prelude to announcing a run.

Speaking on ABC, Pence said he's giving a run for the White House prayerful consideration and took several explicit shots at a likely rival, former President Donald Trump like when Pence was asked about Trump's anti-Pence tweet in the middle of the January 6th riot.

Pence: The President's words were reckless. It was clear he decided to be part of the problem.

Brian: Pence in the interview that aired on Monday. Then last night, as you certainly know, former President Trump officially launched his effort to do what only Grover Cleveland has done before, get reelected to the presidency four years after losing the job. He did not emphasize his election denialism, which hurt the party in the midterms, arguing instead that his years in office were a golden age for the country.

Trump: Two years ago when I left office, the United States stood ready for its golden age. Our nation was at the pinnacle of power, prosperity, and prestige, towering above all rivals, vanquishing all enemies, and striding into the future, confident and so strong.

Brian: We'll talk now about the competition for Republican Party leadership, including these early volleys in the race for President, and the question of whether Kevin McCarthy will become Speaker of the House. Assuming the GOP does take the House majority, as it looks like they will, and with Mitch McConnell apparently being challenged for a minority leader status in the Senate as well. With me now is Eliana Johnson, Editor in Chief of the Conservative Publication, The Washington Free Beacon, and co-host of their podcast, Ink Stained Wretches. Hi Eliana. Thanks for coming on. Welcome back to WNYC.

Eliana: Thanks so much for having me. Great to be with you.

Brian: Let's start with this. How much do you think the results of the midterm elections will affect how crowded the Republican presidential field will be for 2024?

Eliana: I certainly think more people will be motivated to consider a run, but I think it's premature right now to be able to say how many people will get in or not based on that. I think there is a perception that Donald Trump is at his weakest political point that he's ever been since he rode down that escalator in 2015. Certainly, that's prompting many young ambitious Republicans to think about launching Iran. At the same time, you've already seen some like Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas say they're not going to run and we're considering it. I don't think we know yet.

Brian: Listeners, if you voted for Trump for President either time or if you voted Republican in any election last week, do you have an early preference for president in 2024 from the Republican party? 212-433 WNYC, 212-433-9692. Do you care one way or the other if Trump is even running? Anyone has a right to run, of course, but are you glad he is? Wish he wasn't like the Wall Street Journal editorial page and others, or where are you on that? You can also weigh in if you have an opinion on Speaker of the House, assuming Republicans win control and Senate Minority Leader, 212-433-9692.

Are you done with McConnell or prefer him to Rick Scott, his main apparent challenger who some are saying was a big reason Republicans did so poorly in Senate elections? We'll get into that a little bit. 212-433-9692 for Republicans with a preference or anyone from any party or no party with a question for our guest, Eliana Johnson, Editor in Chief of the Washington Free Beacon, 212-433 WNYC, or tweet your question or comment @Brian Lehrer. Eliana, Trump is the only candidate to officially announce so far. Do you think the timing of Pence's book release is also a way to lay the groundwork for him?

Eliana: Pence's book releases absolutely a way to test the waters of whether there's an appetite for a Pence candidacy in the country. I think he and his advisors are closely watching what the reception is like to his book and his media tour. He's ubiquitous everywhere. He was on Fox News this morning. He'll be on CNN tonight. He's watching closely, I think whether based on the reception of his book, he can make a go of it.

Brian, I want to add one other thing to your previous question that I think is important to the question of how many people are going to get in this race. Certainly, you could think more people are going to get in because they sense Trump is weak. On the other hand, I do think that the memory of 2016 weighs heavily on a lot of Republicans, which is Trump won with 30 some percent of the Republican primary vote because there was a huge and splintered primary field.

You have to think that some of these ambitious Republicans have to be thinking, are we going to let one or two other people try to take on Trump head-on? I think a lot of people would like to see a head-on DeSantis, Trump primary, that's a reference to Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, who was reelected by a 20-point margin last Tuesday. I think that cuts both ways.

Brian: What about Chris Christie? He had an interesting electability argument and then clip there, Republican who's a proven winner in a blue state. Do you expect him to run or be a serious contender if he does?

Eliana: He's certainly thinking about it. I think that he will have an uphill battle. I don't think his argument is a unique one. You can look at a lot of Republicans who have had electoral success in purple states. I wouldn't say deep blue states, but purple states. Brian Kemp in Georgia, Doug Ducey in Arizona, Ron DeSantis in Florida, who has transformed that state from a purple state to a red state. Mike DeWine in Ohio, similarly, who has helped move that state from a purple state to a red state. None of these people were Trump loyalists necessarily, but they managed to show that you can have electoral success and in fact run ahead on the ticket of the Trump loyalists running beside you.

Brian: How would you compare and contrast DeSantis and DeWine, since you brought both of them up and people who have been following politics since at least 2000? Remember of course that Florida was the ultimate swing state in 2000, Ohio was the ultimate swing state in 2004, George Bush's reelection. Now they're both considered much redder states, but I think DeSantis and DeWine are pretty different from each other. I think DeWine is more politically to the center than DeSantis, or how would you describe it?

Eliana: I think that's accurate. I heard somebody say this, so I apologize, I can't remember who it was and I'm going to steal the thought, but that you have to think about these candidates as cake and frosting. The cake is the fundamentals, can these people govern? The frosting is the excitement factor, the ability to connect with people on the campaign trail to find a winning message. In many ways, DeWine is the cake, Trump is the frosting, he's the excitement. DeSantis in a lot of ways is the cake and the frosting together.

He has the fundamentals, he does pay attention to the nuts and bolts of governing the state of Florida, but he is appealing to the base too.

Brian: Let's take a phone call. Donna in Queens, you're on WNYC. Hi Donna. Thanks for calling up. Oh, let me try that again.

Donna: Thank you for taking my call.

Brian: Oh, there we go. Now we have you.

Donna: Can you hear me?

Brian: Yes, now we have you. I'm sorry. My fault.

Donna: Trump is my guy. I voted for him both elections, but I don't think he should run this time around. We have younger generations that can do this with stronger feet on the ground and more tech-savvy. He should be blessing people to go and not him. That's just my take on it.

Brian: Donna, thank you very much. Getting back to DeSantis as one of those younger people, your publication Free Beacon had an article on DeSantis this week that I read, by Collin Anderson, How the GOP Turned Florida into a Red State. Talk about that a little bit. How do you see DeSantis as having gone from a squeaker of a victory in 2018 to reelection by 20 points in this year when Republicans, as a whole, underperformed expectations?

Eliana: It's really interesting. DeSantis campaigned as a firebrand in 2018. I'm sure many of us who follow this closely remember his ad, where he was reading to his young children a children's version of "Build the Wall." It was a hokey and ridiculous ad, and it ended up working, but once DeSantis was elected by half a point, he pivoted to the center. In fact, when you look at his record, he's done a lot on climate and on protecting Florida's outdoor and wildlife areas. He made almost a 180.

I think DeSantis showed that he is fighting the culture-war issues, that's absolutely true, but he's doing this without frightening middle-of-the-road voters. You can't scare away those kinds of people. I think many of the Republicans learned that lesson painfully in this midterm election last Tuesday.

Brian: I think one of the things we saw in the midterm election is that a lot of middle-of-the-road voters, as you described them, voted democratic in some congressional races because of the issue of abortion. Where's DeSantis on that? If he's very much restrictive on abortion rights, does that not potentially-- obviously it didn't in Florida, so why didn't it scare away some of those middle-of-the-road voters?

Eliana: It's a really good question. I think there's a lesson in both DeSantis and Mike DeWine. DeSantis has passed-- the law in Florida is, I believe, a 12-week ban. That's actually where the country is. The country, I think we learned, does not want zero abortion, but favors some kind of restriction after the first trimester, and you can argue about where that should be. DeWine, in Ohio, is even more restrictive than DeSantis.

I think what helped these guys was they had a policy and they had to defend this policy in their own states, whereas many of the Republican candidates, they didn't quite know what their views were. They were on the defensive, responding to attacks, as opposed to having governed a state and pushed their policies through, having ways to defend it and understanding how to appeal to the voters in their states based on the policies that they're putting forward.

Brian: Let's take another call. Frank, in Bayville, you're on WNYC. Hi, Frank.

Frank: Hey, Brian. How's it going? I just wanted to say, yes, President Trump there, he did an excellent job doing his presidency. I agree with most of his policies and how he handled things. I, unfortunately, believe that because of his division throughout our country, he might not be the man for the job. It's really hard to see everyone so divided because of him. I think he did his job. He activated the minority-majority and woke everyone up here to see what's going on in DC.

I would love for DeSantis to step in and take it. Maybe he can implement some of the rules that he has in Florida with banning mass mailing ballots, and banning ballot harvesting, required voter ID. He even put together an election police force, and what do you know, they had their election decided by ten o'clock at night. It looks like those strategies are working. I say, "Let's go DeSantis."

Brian: Thank you very much. There was a lot in that call. Trump and his announcement last night, very much deemphasized the stolen election claim. He made some passing references to it, but you tell me, after seeing how badly the election deniers did, especially at the state level where they can change the rules or not certify an election if it doesn't come out their way, those people lost. The public didn't seem to have much of an appetite for that.

Yet, the caller says, on the one hand, Trump should move on after activating the base the last few years. On the other hand, he cited election law changes by DeSantis as one of the reasons he should run. There's a mix of things in there about moving on or embracing perceived threats to election integrity for the next cycle, right?

Eliana: It's interesting, part of the reason that Florida counts votes so efficiently is because of reforms in the wake of the 2000 election when there was a lot of craziness and inefficiency. It's hard to know how much of the efficiency is tied to reforms DeSantis has put in place, but I think certainly a lot of it came in the wake of that 2000 election. Brian, it's really interesting, the two callers who have called in have said, "I voted for Trump, but I'm ready to move on."

I do think that Trump's success in a Republican primary, it hinges on how many people among Republican primary voters feel that way. I don't think we know yet, but I certainly think that the lesson of the past seven years or so, since 2015, is that you can't count Trump out and that there's going to have to be, first of all, a compelling alternative to him, and second of all, a real persuasion effort to persuade the voters. You can't move on without bringing the party's primary voters along.

Brian: The article on the announcement speech in your publication, by Andrew Stiles, says, "It comes with the Republican Party as divided as ever." The last caller was talking about a downside of Trump, even though he likes Trump, being so divisive in the country, maybe that makes him less electable going forward as the caller sees it. Your article says, "It comes with the Republican Party as divided as ever." If you agree with that, divided primarily in what ways?

Eliana: One of the things about Trump and Trumpism that has been problematic for the Republican Party, which I think you have to know, Trump did not win the popular vote in 2016, he lost the House in 2018, he lost the presidency in 2020, and his performance in the 2022 midterms was not fantastic, but one of the problems with Trump is that he divides Republicans. He's a divisive figure, even within the party, and he unites Democrats.

One of his biggest problems has been that he is motivational, not only among the base but also among the oppositions. He motivates Democrats to get out to the polls. One of the things we've seen is that there are actually more of those people than there are Trump-based voters in the Republican Party.

Brian: Interesting. To that point, let me play another clip of Chris Christie. This is from Real Time with Bill Maher on HBO last month, with a specific and somewhat sarcastic shot at Trump's electoral record after winning in 2016.

[playback starts]

Chris Christie: All I heard in 2016 was that we're going to do so much winning that we're going to be tired of winning and we're going to ask him not to win anymore.

[laughter]

Then we lost the House and the Senate in '18, we lost the presidency in '20, we lost two Senate seats in Georgia in '20. It's a lot of losing. I think they might want to go back to winning again."

[playback ends]

Brian: That was last month, Eliana, even before this election turned out the way it did. Do you agree with that take?

Eliana: I do agree with that take. I think it's a little bit rich coming from Chris Christie, who was among the first establishment Republicans to endorse Trump in 2016 and was a contender to be Trump's Chief of Staff during his administration. I think he's largely right that all of the electoral wins Trump promised have not come along with him. It's for the reason, I think, that I mentioned before, which is that he is divisive within the party and he's very motivational for the opposition.

The other thing that jumped out at me in his speech last night was that there was something-- either you were-- When Trump announced in 2015, he was new and shocking, and you couldn't take your eyes off him. He didn't have that effect last night. It felt more stale and less energetic. Part of that is because he was in front of a big crowd, he was reading from a teleprompter, but I also think that he's running the risk that his shtick is worn out. He's not new anymore.

Brian: This is WNYC FM, HD, and AM, New York, WNJT-FM, 88.1 Trenton, WNJP 88.5, Sussex, WNJY 89.3, Netcong, and WNJO 90.3 Toms River, we are New York and New Jersey Public Radio and live streaming @wnyc.org. Few more minutes with Eliana Johnson, Editor-in-Chief of The Washington Free Beacon, as we talk about these early forays into the 2024 Republican presidential race. We're going to touch on the leadership battles now taking place in Congress around McCarthy and McConnell. Before we leave Trump, Eliana, I'm curious what you make of the Rupert Murdoch newspapers in Fox New's relationship with Trump now and how much it matters. The Wall Street Journal editorial page, as I'm sure you know, wrote yesterday that the party would be best served if Trump seated the field to the next generation, like our caller Donna from Queens.

The New York Post front page this morning after the announcement was mostly about something else with just a line at the bottom that said, "Florida man makes announcement C, page 26." That's being taken as critical and dismissive. I watched the speech on Fox last night to see how they would play it, and while it was still going on, they interrupted for commentators Pete Hegseth, and former governor Mike Huckabee calling it Pitch Perfect, and he's unbeatable if he stays on message like that. What do you make of that particular candidate's media relationship and how much it matters?

Eliana: It's funny, Brian, I did the same thing. I watched Fox curious how they would play this, but I do think the pivot of Murdoch's world away from Trump is obvious and noteworthy. It's noteworthy that Fox cut away from his remarks. If they were ratings score and that compelling, they wouldn't have had to cut away for in journalism we say show don't tell. You wouldn't have had to be told that this was the best speech he had ever given.

Certainly not to cut away from this speech. How much it will matter, I don't think we know yet. I'm old enough to remember in 2016 when, Trump was not the chosen candidate again, of these same group of people, and he was able to demonstrate that actually the Fox News audience of Republican primary voters were more loyal to him than they were to Fox, and they lashed out at the Fox News host who were critical of him, and he strong-armed Fox and got them to come around to him.

This time, I don't know if it will go that way, but I don't know how significant the turn away, certainly doesn't help Trump. I don't know if we know yet how much it's going to hurt him.

Brian: Let's touch on the races for Republican leadership in Congress. Kevin McCarthy just want to vote over further right candidate Andy Biggs in the Republican caucus, but the GOP doesn't have control yet with its new members seated officially, even assuming that they win control, which it looks like they're going to probably any minute. Vote for speaker doesn't really take place until after January 1st. What does it mean?

Eliana: It doesn't mean much. I think Kevin McCarthy will still become a speaker, but the election results as opposed to the internal drama mean that it will be a much more unpleasant experience for him and that the right-wingers in the conference are likely to be able to extract from him more concessions in order to get their votes when the vote goes to the house floor in the new year than they would have had McCarthy been able to carry Republicans to a 20 or 30 seat majority.

Brian: How about in the Senate, Florida Senator Rick Scott, apparently challenging McConnell? Why Rick Scott?

Eliana: Well, Rick Scott led the National Republican Senatorial Committee this cycle, and I think also has presidential ambitions. We talked a bit about all of the people who might challenge Trump. Scott and McConnell were really at each other's throats the entire election season with McConnell and his aides frustrated that Rick Scott and the NRSC would not intervene in primaries against a lot of the Trump-endorsed more right-wing candidates, despite McConnell's concerns about how viable they would be in a general election.

There was a lot of enmity and back-biting between the two, not only over that, but overspending and strategy. That's why you're seeing Scott take on McConnell now. Similarly, Rick Scott's first bit of the apple leading Republicans to electoral victory was running the NSC this year, and the results were not great. Republicans in the Senate, they may be frustrated with him, they may not like him personally, but I do think they do trust him to lead the party. Again, like MacCarthy, McConnell will be the Senate minority leader for Republicans in the Senate.

Brian: How much blowback from within the party, let's say within the senators in the party is there against Rick Scott for having made the party vulnerable to the argument that he would put Medicare and Social Security at risk? Part of his policy blueprint was to reevaluate those programs every five years, rather than keep them as permanent entitlements the way they are.

He was trying to make an argument about how they're on a trajectory for bankruptcy. There needs to be financial realism, but I think to a lot of seniors, it looked like, "Wait, I depend on Medicare and Social security. Now he's saying, to reevaluate the existence of these programs every five years."

Eliana: I think the frustration at Rick Scott is over the losses and the party is pinning the losses to the quality of the candidates, as opposed to the alternative agenda that Rick Scott put out. That being said, I think those who-- Scott allies are saying, "No, it wasn't really the candidate quality," it was the lack of a positive agenda from these candidates that McConnell was more reluctant to put out there. You just have to run against Biden, but I do think we learned that it wasn't enough for Republicans to go out and say, "Hey, inflation is really high. It's really bad." They did need to have some alternative positive message, even if it wasn't the one that Rick Scott was embracing and promoting.

Brian: Last thing and back to Trump, is anybody making a thing of a couple of weird little gaffs in that speech last night? He called reconstruction part of the civil war, and he said he led the country through decades of peace time, the first president ever to do that. Did you pick up on those and is anybody going, "What?"

Eliana: I did pick up on those, and I think what you're likely to hear is the same stuff that Republicans say about Biden, which is that he is-- first of all, he's never been a strong reader from a teleprompter. Neither one of them has actually, but he's old. He's 76 years old, he would be 78 in 2024. This is exhausting stuff. I'm not sure there's really more to it than that. I doubt it, but this is challenging and difficult to perform in front of a national audience. I look at White House reporting and I say, "Oh, that's the stuff of young people, getting on a plane, flying all around the country." The same is true a hundredfold for serving as president of the United States.

Brian: Eliana Johnson, editor-in-chief of the Washington Free Beacon and co-host of their podcast, Ink Stained Retches. Eliana, thanks so much. We really appreciate it.

Eliana: Thank you.

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