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Brian Lehrer: It's the Brian Lehrer show on WNYC. Good morning, everyone. We'll check in first today on the New York city mayoral race. The last time we did a segment on the race candidate, Maya Wiley was in the news for an endorsement from a big union that tends to turn out a lot of votes, the healthcare workers union 1199. Today it's Eric Adams' turn, the Brooklyn Borough President and former NYPD captain just got the endorsement of the big city workers union, DC 37. They have around 200,000 members, New York City municipal workers. There is also a new poll of the crowded field from Emerson College, NewsNation, and PIX 11, that finds only two candidates even get into double digits.

Andrew Yang has a significant lead with 32% of likely voters. Eric Adams is second with 19%. Everyone else is down in single digits. Maya Wiley has nine in this poll, Scott Stringer only 6%, Katheryn Garcia, 5%, and everyone else is at less than 5%. Remember, this is a ranked-choice voting election, which means you may vote for up to five candidates on June 22nd and rank them in order of your preference. There won't be a winner until someone passes 50% under ranked choice vote counting formulas. The poll also match people's candidate preferences with their top issues. This is interesting. Andrew Yang supporters tend to list COVID as their top issue.

For Eric Adams supporters, it tends to be housing and homelessness. Maya Wiley's supporters put police reform first. She used to have the civilian complaint review board. There are also significant demographic differences in support that probably are going to affect how they campaign going forward after this one of the few polls that's been done and a pretty major poll. According to the Emerson College write-up of their poll, Yang leads with white and Asian voters. Adams leads with Black and Latino voters. A majority of voters under 30 are breaking for Yang.

There's also a gender gap. Yang would get 41% of the male vote but just 26% of the female vote as of now. Now, obviously, this is just one poll and it's early yet. We will be co-sponsoring a candidates debate later in the season, and there will be other forums, plenty of time to make up your mind. This poll is an interesting snapshot of the contours of the race as are the latest endorsements. Joining me now, WNYC senior politics reporter, Brigid Bergin. Hi, Brigid.

Brigid Bergin: Good morning, Brian.

Brian Lehrer: Listeners, let's try a ranked-choice voting experiment. We'll explain why as we go, but I want you to participate in this, if you're interested, to look beyond the top two for the moment. If your first choice is for anyone other than Andrew Yang or Eric Adams, call in with who that is and why. 646-435-7280, 646-435-7280. I'll explain the experiment as we go. Mostly we want to test where the passion is that might tighten this race as one pole is just one poll, and we want test who some of you might rank second on your ballots in ranked-choice voting. Don't overthink it, the ask is simple, if your first choice, as of right now, is for anyone other than Andrew Yang or Eric Adams, who would it be for you today?

646-435-7280, 646-435-7280. This is a short segment, so you'll get right on. Let's see if we can get some calls. If your first choice for mayor as of now is for anyone other than Andrew Yang or Eric Adams, 646-435-7280. Brigid, as people's calls are coming in, does anything jump out to you from the Emerson College, PIX 11 poll that's either surprising or that you find especially interesting?

Brigid Bergin: I think from looking at the candidates themselves, it was striking to me to see Scott Stringer, who is one of the longest serving public officials in this race, very experienced, has been in the race among the longest, to be still in the single digits. That's a little bit of a change from-- We haven't had a ton of polling in this race yet. There was another poll back in January and he was doing better in that poll. We're seeing Maya Wiley pick up a little bit of steam, which is not entirely surprising given, as you mentioned, that big endorsement she got a couple of weeks ago.

I was struck given how much institutional support the Stringer campaign has, when they launched so many of these really progressive elected officials who were there with him to launch his campaign that that hasn't quite translated into support in the polls. As you said, we keep saying it's early, at some point it won't be, but it still is relatively early now in terms of people processing this race. In terms of the race for endorsements, which will have different levels of meaning, depending on who they're coming from. I'm sure we'll talk a little bit more about that.

Brian Lehrer: Yes. Demographics matter. This is as old as the Hills in New York City mayoral politics, are you going to vote for the Italian candidate, the Irish candidate or the Jewish candidate once upon a time? Now, Andrew Yang is the first choice of white and Asian voters, younger voters and male voters, other groups, not as much. Adams does best among Black and Latino voters as we noted. Assuming a poll like this influences how they campaign either shore up their weaknesses or just maximize turnout among their strengths, how do you think this affects their campaigns?

Brigid Bergin: Well, one of the things people have been keeping an eye on most certainly is how can these candidates put together a coalition to really turn out blocks of votes that's endorsements, but that's also, there are certain communities that are more likely to turn out as blocks. We've spent some time paying attention to how the Orthodox Jewish community in Brooklyn is evaluating these candidates, what issues matter to them, because traditionally that is a block of votes that will turn out largely for a single candidate. The indications we've gotten from reporting so far tend towards either an Andrew Yang or an Eric Adams.

It's not clear that that endorsement or either one of those candidates has secured the support of that community, but you could see that both of those candidates are trying to make an appeal to that community based on their positions on yeshivas and secular education. I think we'll also continue to see some of the other candidates potentially do some campaigning together. Later today, there is going to be a press conference where Andrew Yang and Maya Wiley will be appearing together in Brooklyn. It will be very interesting to see how people who want to influence this race will look at this field and decide to make potentially joint endorsements and to what

degree that will have an influence on voters and their turnout.

As you said, Brian, people have the option to select up to five candidates. That's a lot of candidates to bring in your head to the poll if you are going to select five for mayor, five for controller, five for your city council district. It will be really interesting to see how voters make sense of this in our first ranked-choice voting election.

Brian Lehrer: Now, here's our experiment with the callers. Again, I'm going to reveal why afterwards so we don't bias this, but we're first going to go through a few people who are calling in saying Scott Stringer is their first choice. Sam in Manhattan, you're on WNYC. Hi Sam, thank you for calling in. Here's my question. If Scott Stringer is your first choice, who would you pick second today?

Sam: Tough question. I like both Ray and Eric. I find them interesting, but I need to do a little more homework on all the candidates

Brian Lehrer: Glad to see you're on a first-name basis with Ray McGuire and Eric Adams. Sally on the Upper West Side, another Stringer supporter. Sally, thanks for calling in. Sally, here's my question for you, between Eric Adams and Andrew Yang, who would you prefer as a second choice?

Sally: Eric Adams, definitely.

Brian Lehrer: You want to say why?

Sally: I think he has more of the experience that we need and New York right now. Andrew Yang has some interesting ideas. I don't think he follows through on things. He's interesting to people who want a change, want an outsider, just like many did when it was Trump versus Clinton. I just hope that Stringer and Adams and possibly, Ray McGuire, maybe Maya Wiley, will get more people.

Brian Lehrer Rally to the top of the park. Sally, thank you very much. Another one, Rena in Brooklyn, I see you're a Stringer supporter. Who would you prefer between Eric Adams and Andrew Yang?

Rena: That's really a tough question. Probably, Andrew Yang, but I'm a little concerned about him because he didn't vote in a couple of elections that were local elections. I thought, "Well, what kind of civic engagement is that?" If you're interested in-- I'm sorry. If you're interest--

Brian Lehrer In city politics, why aren't you voting in the mayoral election? If you're interested in the fate of our city.

Rena: Why didn't you vote in any election if you're civically-minded?

Brian Lehrer Thank you so much. Thank you very much. Now, there are also a number of Kathryn Garcia voters on the board. Neil in Park Slope, same question for you. If Kathryn Garcia is your first choice, who would your second choice be? Neil, you're there?

Neil: Oh, yes. Hi, Brian. It probably would be Eric Adams. It's easy to not be that impressed by Andrew Yang because he's interesting, he's thoughtful, but he has no experience in civic government. Eric Adams, former police officer, Borough President of Brooklyn. Yes, I know him personally. That's an easy choice.

Brian Lehrer Thank you very much. Robin in Manhattan, same question. Hi, Robin. I see you're a Kathryn Garcia supporter. Who would your second choice be? If you had to choose between Yang and Adams on your ranked-choice voting ballot, who would you list higher?

Robin: Oh, my second choice would be Ray McGuire, but if I'm choosing between Adams and Yang, I would choose Yang.

Brian Lehrer Want to tell us why real quick?

Robin: Ray McGuire reminds me of Bloomberg, someone who doesn't have a lot of politics experience, but has deep business savvy. I like the position he's coming from. Between Yang and Adams, Adams by default told me a while ago that I should leave New York because I wasn't born here. A few years ago, there was that kerfuffle about outsiders and people who come from other parts of the world, and they're not real New Yorkers. I'm like, "Excuse me?" For Adams it's like, [inaudible 00:12:38].

Brian Lehrer Got you. Robin, thank you very much. There's a little snapshot, Brigid. As we say, an informal, unofficial and thoroughly unscientific little sample. If we take anything from that, it's that if Scott Stringer turns out not to be viable, if he comes in second or third and has a decent number of votes to distribute, maybe it's a little indication that his voters would tend to distribute their second-place votes to Eric Adams because he's another inside-government experienced person. That would work to the detriment of Andrew Yang.

Brigid Bergin: That's definitely something I've heard from people who've been following the race, but who've been talking to voters to this idea of wanting someone who actually has a sense of what it takes to run city government. It's certainly the case that some of the candidates are making, Kathryn Garcia, Shaun Donovan, in addition, about their ability to do the job because they've done this type of work before. I think for some people, the Yang campaign is this breath of fresh air. He's charismatic, he makes, I think, the idea of things that seem like they should be easy, possible, he tosses them out there. The most recent one about making the subway free on Memorial Day weekend.

These ideas, sometimes they get tossed out and then immediately just chewed up and spit back by the city and state agencies who actually are responsible for executing them, talking about how much money it would cost, what it would take to execute. I think voters who pay attention to things like that can be turned off by that. It could not escape my ears listening to the caller talking about participation in municipal elections. That is something that Yang has spoken to in the past and has acknowledged that, "Look, there are lots of New Yorkers who have not participated in city elections."

I think the challenge with that kind of answer is, when you were talking to Democratic primary voters, those are the most engaged voters in the city. While that answer might be more persuasive in a general election contest, in a primary contest, these are the people that turn out for everything. I think that depending on who he's speaking to, that will be a challenge for him to overcome.

Brian Lehrer Let me take one more. Even though it doesn't show up as many points in this poll, there is definitely a grassroots movement of whatever size for nonprofit organization CEO, Dianne Morales, who like all the candidates has been a guest on this show and definitely has gotten some grassroots support. There are people in the city definitely talking about Dianne Morales, who is hardly a household name. Una in Brooklyn is calling in as a Dianne Morales supporter. Una, hi, and I'm going to ask you the same question. Who would you pick second, and between Andrew Yang and Eric Adams, who would you prefer?

Una: I just want to say I think Dianne Morales is the most progressive candidate, and really, she's pulling the grassroots. I'm so excited about her. I still think she has a chance in this race. I guess in my second, if I had to choose between two, it would be Andrew Yang. The reason I support Dianne Morales is because she's trying to defend the police and believes in progressive politics. Eric Adams, who's tied to the police obviously, I don't think supports that. That's a very important issue to me.

Brian Lehrer Una, thank you very much. Here's another Dianne Morales supporter. Allie in Brooklyn. Hi, Allie. Thanks for calling in. Same question. Forgive me for jumping right over your main candidate and asking you who you would choose second, and who you would choose between Yang and Adams.

Allie: I'm not necessarily sure who I would choose second because I'd have to do more research, but between Yang and Adams, I would have to go with Yang only because Adams is associated with the police union. I would go with [crosstalk]--

Brian Lehrer: Same as the previous caller. One more Dianne Morales supporter, Sophia in Brooklyn. Sophia, you're on WNYC. Thanks so much. Same question, who would you choose second, and between Eric Adams and Andrew Yang, do you have a preference?

Sophia: After Dianne Morales, I'm really excited about Carlos Menchaca who is a big part of fighting the rezoning for development in Sunset Park recently. I cannot [chuckles] vote for Yang nor Adams due to Adams connection to development. A lot of policies behind Yang, I'm glad you brought the UBI conversation to the forefront of the race, but I'm most interested in Menchaca and Morales who are two grassroots candidates who are anti-development, who are also promoting universal basic income in the city, which I think should be one of the main conversations in this mayoral race.

Brian Lehrer Thank you so much. We really appreciate it. Well, Brigid, we're going to run out of time soon. We took a lot of calls for a short segment. Interesting from the grassroots Morales supporters, how they distribute, and we see one of the flash

points for Eric Adams. Some people may like that he straddles the fence between police reform and ties to the police. Some people may see him as too tied to the police, as several callers there. Again, the inside-outside dynamic playing itself out in various ways.

Brigid Bergin: Absolutely. We'll have to see if some of these big endorsements that he's recently picked up, Hotel Trades Council, DC 37, more coming today. If those are going to be able to counteract some of what I think is some progressive momentum that the Morales campaign is picking up, at least among the real hardcore grassroots community activists. I see it in my Twitter feed constantly, whether that translates into votes, that's what some of the AOC supporters started out as. Maybe we will see some surge in her momentum in the weeks and months ahead.

Brian Lehrer Thank you, Scott Stringer callers, Kathryn Garcia callers, Dianne Morales callers for sharing some of your second choice in the ranked-choice voting election picks with us and for comparing the two who broke out as in a top tier by themselves for the moment in this PIX11, Emerson College poll. Those being Andrew Yang and Eric Adams. For the rest of you, hopefully, why do we do this?

This is hopefully a way to help many of you who live in the city and will vote in this Democratic primary who haven't gotten your minds around this as much yet, to start to sort out and understand this field of so many candidates. Hopefully, this was useful for many of you. Of course, our wonderful WNYC, Senior Political Reporter, Brigid Bergin and the rest of the WNYC news team will be on it, Brigid, thanks a lot.

Brigid Bergin: Always great to be here. Thanks, Brian.

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