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Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer on WNYC. Around 20% of the voters in the New York primary are expected to be Latino voters. At the beginning of the mayoral race, Latino political leaders were pretty spread out in their endorsements, congressman Espaillat from in the Heights, for Scott Stringer, Councilman Ydanis Rodriguez from up there, for Eric Adams, congressman Ritchie Torres, from the Bronx for Andrew Yang, Congresswoman Nydia Velázquez is from Brooklyn for Maya Wiley. Now, they are coalescing more around Adams.

We'll explain how in a minute with Juan Manuel Benitez from NY1 Noticias, Adams got the endorsement this week of the widely circulated Spanish language newspaper El Especialito as well. There is also a major new poll of likely Democratic primary voters from Marris College, which is used as an official benchmark. This poll is of who qualifies for tomorrow night's final official mayoral debate, and the poll has some very interesting findings.

Here are a few. Adams leads city-wide with 24% support. Kathryn Garcia is next with 17%, then Maya Wiley with 15%. If you consider the margin of error, Wiley and Garcia are tied, and Andrew Yang is right behind them with 13% support. All other candidates are down in single digits now, plus 13% remain undecided. Still enough people that these late deciders will determine who wins. When rank choice voting was taken into account, Adams wins the primary eventually in this poll with Garcia the last to be eliminated.

Some of the demographic breakdowns are also really interesting. Kathryn Garcia is the top choice of white voters. 28%, way above my Maya Wiley who comes in next with 18%, 10 points behind. Eric Adams is by far the choice of Black voters with 43% support compared to just 11% for Wiley, 10% for Andrew Yang and just 7 for Garcia. Among Latinos, it's much closer with Adams on top at 22%, then Wiley, Garcia and Yang close together in the mid-teens.

The sample size of Asian Americans was too small for them to report a result. Geographically, Garcia has a solid lead in Manhattan. Adams has a solid lead in Queens. Adams also leads in Brooklyn and the Bronx, but not by as much as in Queens. Then the sample size was too small on Staten Island to report a result from there. There is a significant divide over Eric Adams by age, he wins among people over 45, but comes in only tied for third among voters under 45. Maya Wiley comes in first among voters under 45.

By religion, Garcia leads among respondents identifying as Jewish. Adams leads among respondents identifying as Catholic or Protestant. Finally, by political ideology, Maya Wiley leads by almost 20 points among those who call themselves "very liberal." Garcia leads among those who call themselves "just liberal." Adams leads by a lot among those Democrats who call themselves "moderate" or "conservative." How do Democrats shake out in this poll on those labels? About a third call themselves "moderate," about another third call themselves "liberal."

The bad news for Wiley is that only 19% of likely Democratic primary voters call themselves "very liberal," even in blue New York. Of course, all of these numbers come with a disclaimer that they only mean anything, if the Marist poll got it right, and we know pollsters don't always get it right. Also remember that a poll is just a snapshot in this case of the way things may have been on June 3rd through 9th. The last of the poll is almost a week old already. I would think, based on other developments, that Wiley support in particular would probably be more today than it was then.

This poll was taken partly before, but partly after AOC and Jumaane Williams endorsed Wiley, but Garcia and Adams also seemed to be consolidating among certain groups. Again, this race is far from decided. The [unintelligible 00:04:34] listeners, it's very much up to you, but this is the most comprehensive poll so far and one that is used to determine in part who gets to debate in the last debate on Channel 4 tomorrow night. With me now Juan Manuel Benitez, host of the show Pura Política on New York 1, Spanish language channel, NY1 Noticias. Hi, Juan. Thanks for some time. As I know, you're covering so many races with early voting underway. Welcome back to WNYC.

Juan: Hi, Brian, thank you so much for having me.

Brian Lehrer: Latinx New Yorkers come from many different backgrounds, obviously, and the pulse seems to reflect that with the four leading candidates, all within eight points of each other in this poll, does that seem consistent with your and your colleagues' reporting on NY1 Noticias?

Juan: Yes, it does. There are two groups here when it comes to the Latino vote in the city for this election. I feel that you have the older generation of Hispanic voters, Latino voters in the city. They are in this case, this time around, they might be more worried about public safety. Maybe someone like Eric Adams is appealing to them more than any other candidate. Then you have the young Latinx, young Latinos in the city, who are more ideological and they are gravitating towards candidacies like Dianne Morales and Maya Wiley because they are more progressive than their elders. That's what we are seeing on the street on the ground. I think that's what's going to happen on primary day.

Brian Lehrer: Now, elected officials' endorsements are not necessarily representative of the public at large. There are all kinds of relationships there, and it would be stereotyping to expect Latino leaders or any ethnic groups' leaders to endorse as a block, but was the amount of diversity in the original endorsements from members of Congress, from the city, a surprise to you? Velázquez for Wiley, Torres for Yang, Espaillat for Stringer, Ocasio-Cortez remaining initially neutral.

Juan: I thought it was a symbol-- It goes with the times we're living in New York City politics right now. I think that ethnic politics, even though it's a really important factor in any election in the city, it's been for decades or centuries, here in New York, it's still alive, but the younger generations are more ideological. They're not so much about electing someone from within their community. They're more about electing someone that is more aligned ideologically with their beliefs. We see that also in the

younger members of Congress, I feel. Endorsements though, I do believe they are really important this year because many voters are trying to do the homework because of ranked-choice voting.

They are really trying to learn more about the candidates, and they are confused. This is like preparing for the SATs before going to the post side. If you have a politician, an elected official, like your city councilmen, your congresswoman who's represented you for many, many years, you might be following their lead, if they tell you that this candidate is better than the other ones.

I'll give you an example, you know that community very well. Right now Eric Adams has a council member, Ydanis Rodriguez support and also congressman Adriano Espaillat's support. Those are the two main political families in the Dominican electorate uptown. It's really significant right now, those two families are going with Eric Adams.

Brian Lehrer: Listeners, on the phones for this segment. If you identify as Latino and are likely Democratic primary voters for mayor, you'll get first priority, 646-435-7280. Who are you voting for for mayor, or who are you deciding between if you're still undecided. Voters who identify as Latino, Latinx, 646-435-7280, 646-435-7280. What issues are driving your decision-making in this election, Latino voters. How much of your decision would you say has anything to do with what you would call identity issues?

You just heard Juan Manuel describing how those may be more prevalent among older voters and among younger voters, no matter what age group you're in, does that hit home with you, equal treatment and fair share of resources for Latin X people in communities, or other political needs that you would express in that way? 646-435-7280, or more "moderate older," more "progressive younger." Does it shake out that way for you, Latinx listeners, no matter what age you are. Tell me if your kids, your adult children, or your parents see things differently, or anything you want to say or ask about the mayoral race with Juan Manuel Benitez, host of Pura Política on NY1 Noticias, 646-435-7280, 646-435-7280. or tweet @BrianLehrer. Juan Manuel, how do you see the importance of Congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez's endorsement now for Wiley across all groups, including Latino voters?

Juan: I think it comes at the right moment for the Wiley campaign just when we saw how the Scott Stringer campaign basically got into real trouble with those two women accusing Stringer of sexual harassment 20 and 30 years ago, and also at a moment when Dianne Morales's campaign was imploding with all those campaign workers trying to unionize and being fired. That meant that the progressives in this race had to make a decision, and I think they picked Wiley, many of them picked Wiley as the most viable candidate.

Then here she comes, the Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorsing Wiley at that really last minute. I think that's going to help her campaign tremendously. Is that going to be enough to win the race? That's up in the air.

Brian Lehrer: Any other important endorsements? Big ones, as you well know, come not just from elected officials, but from unions, for example, Wiley has the big healthcare workers' union 1199. Stringer has the UFT. Andrew Yang got the police captains' union endorsement just yesterday. Garcia got the sanitation workers, who reported to her as commissioner. They could have come out resentful of their old boss, and there are many more.

Juan: Yes, I think unions are powerful in New York City politics. They might not have as much sway as they used to when it comes to endorsements, but still you have to give it to them. They know how to organize. When it comes to voting, that's really important. I will tell you also because I want to tell you about the Spanish language aspect of the race, Brian, because for Pura Política, we sent out a questionnaire with the questions on how the candidates were going to solve Latino issues in the city. We got responses from every single major candidate except Andrew Yang. Andrew Yang's campaign, I don't know, they never sent us anything back.

The only people who spoke Spanish were, obviously, Dianne Morales. She identifies as Afro-Latina. She is fully bilingual in Spanish. We were also surprised to hear Maya Wiley speaking really good Spanish and also Shaun Donovan speaking some Spanish. Those candidates are trying to reach the Spanish language community in New York City that way in many of their campaign stops, and I think that's important for some members of that electorate.

Brian Lehrer: Let's take a phone call. Michelle in Manhattan, you're on WNYC. Hi, Michelle.

Michelle: Hi. I was just going to say that I think that when I first listened to what you guys are talking about, you're talking about Wiley getting Ocasio-Cortez's endorsement, I think that'll absolutely help her because Cortez is so popular, but I just don't think that they're going to vote for a woman. I really don't. Still, I think we're in the dark ages there still. I don't know, is it just me or is it--? I just feel like none of the people that are running are really inspiring me. I'm having trouble coming up with five names.

Brian Lehrer: Have you figured it out for yourself in your uninspired position who you're probably going to list first?

Michelle: I don't know. I guess maybe-- Oh God, now I'm nervous, so I can't think of his name.

Brian Lehrer: That's right.

Michelle: [laughs] I can't even think of his name. He's the one with the--

Brian Lehrer: It's a guy. Is it Eric Adams?

Michelle: No, it's not Eric Adams. It's the middle of the road one, he was running for president. [laughs]

Brian Lehrer: Oh, Andrew Yang?

Michelle: Yes. [laughs]

Brian Lehrer: What do you like about Yang?

Michelle: He likes the Strokes. [laughs] No, he's an educated guy. I think he's got a level head.

Brian Lehrer: Nice.

Michelle: Yes, my boyfriend said he wants to throw out money to us. [laughs] Bye.

Brian Lehrer: To some people, anyway. Michelle, thank you very much. By the way, Juan Manuel, as a little fact-check, wasn't it Maya Wiley who had the fundraiser with the Strokes?

Juan: She was. She was on Saturday night. Let me tell you, Brian, because I wasn't there at the concert, but I saw the videos on social media the following morning. It was really refreshing. Forget about the politics, but it was really refreshing and it gave some hope seeing so many people packing a concert venue like we hadn't seen since before the pandemic. That's a good sign for all New Yorkers.

Brian Lehrer: Listeners, 646-435-7280, first priority for Latinx listeners, but anyone may call. 646-435-7280. Alex in Greenwich Village has a question in this regard. Alex, you're on WNYC, hello.

Alex: Hi, I'm wondering if your guest can shed some light on why the largest Spanish-speaking paper would endorse Adams, because I'm not voting for Adams because he is very pro-police. My assumption would be that pro-police stance might bleed into other policing aspects in the city, including ICE. I definitely don't want that. I would assume that most other people, who read your paper, might also not want that. I'm wondering if you can shed some light on that issue. Thank you.

Brian Lehrer: Alex, thank you very much. Just to be clear, our guest, Juan Manuel Benitez is not with that newspaper. He's with the TV station NY1 and their Spanish-language channel NY1 Noticias, but I did mention in the intro that El Especialito, which I gather is the most widely read Spanish language newspaper nationally, did come out for Adams. To Alex's curiosity about why considering that Adams might be more ICE-friendly and things like that, how do you read it?

Juan: I'm not sure about the circulation numbers of El Especialito. I don't know how many people read El Especialito. I'm not saying that it's not widely read. It's just that I'm not sure. It's not like the influence that El Diario La Prensa used to have when they endorsed a candidate back in the day.

Brian Lehrer: That was more of a local paper. I think El Especialito is more national, and maybe it doesn't have as much of a profile among New York Spanish speakers, but I don't know that.

Juan: I don't think people read El Especialito for political news, but I'm not here to

dismiss that endorsement. What I would say, though, is that Latinos are not that different from other communities in the city. They have the same concerns. When you talk to an average voter in a Latino community, that person is going to tell you that the things that they're concerned about are public safety, education, jobs, the economy, the recovery. They share concerns with everybody else.

What we see now if you go to communities in Washington Heights, if you go to some parts of the Bronx or Queens, a lot of older Latino New Yorkers, they will tell you that they're concerned about public safety. When it comes to public safety, the one that I feel having covered all the different mayoral campaigns this year, I think that Eric Adams might have the most effective message when it comes to public safety, at least that's what the voters are telling me.

Again, and the connection with ICE, that's a little bit more complicated and more nuanced. Sometimes, when it comes to political campaigning, there's no room for nuance, it's just black or white.

Brian Lehrer: There's only one Latinx candidate in the race, Dianne Morales. Kathryn Garcia is white. Many people may not know that. Garcia is the name of her ex-husband and she kept it. Morales only gets 3% Latinx support in this poll. I know her labor problems have hurt her recently, but I think her low standing mostly predates that. Why didn't Morales catch on among Latinx voters during this campaign?

Juan: I would say that Morales is going to gain more than that come election day. I think that Latinos traditionally, they tend to vote more for Spanish language last names. I do feel that Morales and Garcia, even if Garcia is not Latina herself, are going to get some Latino votes in the primary just because their last names are Morales and Garcia. I even followed Dianne Morales campaigning around the Lower East Side telling some voters, "Listen, I'm the only Latina in the race. You're going to see another Spanish last name on the ballot, Garcia, but she's not a real Latina."

Just making sure that those voters knew that she was the only Latina running familiar. That's a reason also, I think, Brian, even though we are not talking about the comptroller’s race right now, that's a reason why Michelle Caruso-Cabrera, the financial journalist, I think she's going to do really well among Latinos because most voters don't know that much about what the comptroller does, but if they go to the polls and they see the ballot and they see a Spanish last name, Michelle Caruso-Cabrera, they might be more inclined to vote for that person than for other candidates that they are not familiar with.

Brian Lehrer: In her case, not knowing that she's controversial for having been a Republican until 2015, for having been a conservative commentator on CNBC for a long time, having one of those archetype bowl financial conservative books out there called Less Government Equals More Prosperity, something like that. She primaried AOC from the right last year, but a lot of people don't know that because that race is not getting a lot of coverage. It came out last week on the comptroller's debate that your organization, NY1 and my organization WNYC hosted together. That's not generally well-known out there. She may look like the Latino identity candidate for

people who haven't studied up.

Juan: That’s right. Then I would say, though, Brian, that sometimes we tend to align Latinos with the left or a more progressive vote. We have to recognize that the Latino vote is not monolithic. It's really complex, and sometimes it's more center or to the right than other communities. Just because we assume that Latinos are concerned with immigration a lot, we shouldn't assume that they share all kinds of progressive policies, that we tend to assign to Latinos when the reality is a little more complicated than that.

Brian Lehrer: Absolutely. Would you say that there were any story lines that were included in stories that you've done in Spanish, on NY1 Noticias, or that you've seen in other Spanish language media that the English-only community is missing?

Juan: I don't think so right now. I do believe that candidates for mayor should have had a stronger message for the Latino community, just because it was a community hardest hit by the pandemic last year, and also because it's that community that is key for our public schools, a community that also is asking now for more public safety in their neighborhoods, at least a portion, a segment of that community. I'm missing a little bit more of an outreach.

However, you have to also acknowledge that some campaigns got really good surrogates that are doing that job for the candidates. The one that we're talking to most during this segment is Eric Adams. It's not only Espaillat and Ydanis Rodriguez. He also got the support from Freddy Ferrer, who was the first Latino nominee of the Democratic Party running for mayor back in 2005. He's also influential, or the Bronx Borough President, Ruben Diaz Jr., who is also campaigning for Eric Adams.

Brian Lehrer: Matt in Inwood, you’re on WNYC. Hi, Matt.

Matt: Hey, Brian. Can you hear me?

Brian Lehrer: I can hear you just fine.

Matt: Okay, great. Hey, sorry. Just calling to say I'm a Latinx-identifying person, I'm on my mid-30s. I'll be voting for Maya Wiley first, Dianne Morales, second. Sorry, I was riding my bike. I'm specifically not ranking Andrew Yang, Kathryn Garcia, or Eric Adams, because of their position on policing and education.

Brian Lehrer: Thank you very much. Very clear. I think there's a no talking on a cell phone law with respect to cars. I'm not sure about bicycles, but it's not a good idea. Matt, I think, had gotten down from his bike and he was just a little bit out of breath. Justin in Brownsville, you’re on WNYC. Hi, Justin.

Justin: How is Brian? Good morning. I'm just surprised why more people are not voting for Andrew Yang. Believe it or not, the reason why I love that guy is when he said he wants to deliver the vaccine with ice cream trucks. I'm going to tell you a story. When I was in Jamaica in the '80s growing up, a guy called me in a shop, what you call store here. He said a sweet milk is going to sell for over $100 one day. That

time sweet milk was for 80 cents at the time. The shopkeeper run him out of the shop and said, "You're stupid. That will never happen." Now sweet milk is for almost $200.

The problem with us, we listen to the politicians who read the same script over and over, and we are not willing to try new things. I love the things Andrew Yang [unintelligible 00:25:50], there may sound abnormal, but the way it has been running over the years, doesn't work for guys like me. I'm going to vote for him first, and Eric Adams, second.

Brian Lehrer: Justin, thank you so much. Juan Manuel, that's supposed to be Andrew Yang's appeal, is that he's an innovative, "think outside the box" candidate. Even if he doesn't have the same kinds of experience that some of the other candidates have, especially in government, he's the guy who's going to come in with, the caller mentioned, offering vaccines at ice cream shops and other things like that.

Juan: Now, what is really surprising, and, Brian, that we saw in that Marist College poll yesterday, is that the last two listeners, they really go according to the results of that poll. You have the last listeners saying that he's going to vote for Andrew Young one, and Eric Adams second, which is really surprising because those two campaigns have been fighting with each other and they are trying to be really different from each other.

Then the previous caller said that he's voting for Maya Wiley, I believe, or Dianne Morales first and then Maya Wiley. He's picking two women, number one and number two. That was really interesting from that poll too, because the most common second choice for people who ranked Kathryn Garcia first was Maya Wiley, for people who ranked Maya Wiley first was Kathryn Garcia, and for people who ranked Dianne Morales first was Maya Wiley. There are a lot of New York voters who are just picking women, one and two, because I'm sure many of them want to see for the first time in history, have a female mayor of the city of New York.

Brian Lehrer: Tomorrow, we're going to talk about Black voters in New York City with Christina Greer and many calls again, along the lines of some of those interesting findings that broke down maybe surprisingly, maybe not surprisingly, but differently in the three main racial categories. I realized they're very broad categories, but of Black, Latino, and white, and really pretty different from each other. 

Do you think, based on what you just said, that the traditional notion of lanes to the left into the right, the more progressive lane where people say Wiley and Morales and Stringer, and the more moderate lane where people say Garcia and Adams and Yang, that, when you look at those first and second and third choices, people aren't necessarily voting along those particular lines? We've got about 30 seconds left.

Juan: I'm really surprised that that's going to be true, what you just said. There are two variables here this year, Brian, for the first time, it's ranked-choice voting, and people are voting differently, and also early voting. Those two combined are going to give us a totally different result from previous elections this year.

Brian Lehrer: Juan Manuel Benitez hosts the politics program Pura Política on NY1 Noticias. Then you can also see him in English, on NY1. Juan Manuel, thanks a lot so much for the insights.

Juan: Thank you so much, Brian.

Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer on WNYC.

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