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Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer, on WNYC. Now we'll turn to Albany where lawmakers in both the State, Senate and Assembly voted to approve new congressional maps. After years of legal battles, this may actually now be over. It's now New York state's third congressional maps into the 2020 census prompted the once-a-decade re-drawings, and it seems like this one might stick.

Sixteen Republican state lawmakers, including assembly minority leader, Republican leader, Will Barclay voted in favor of the new map yesterday which indicates that the new districts may not be subject to the same lawsuits that previous versions endured, and the lines that they came up with may actually be the lines that will tell you who your members of Congress and candidates for Congress are.

Zooming out, New York's congressional district map may have significant consequences for the results of the 2024 election. After all, many point to democratic losses and a few of New York's swing districts on Long Island and in the Hudson Valley as the reason the party lost control of the House in the 2022 congressional elections. Let's talk about how we got to this new map, what the changes are, and who may benefit come November. Joining me now is our Jon Campbell, Albany reporter for WNYC and Gothamist. Hey, Jon.

Jon Campbell: Hey, Brian.

Brian Lehrer: We've changed maps twice so far in the states since 2020. Are there signs that this map will stick? Is there a Republican lawsuit brewing despite the vote in the state legislature yesterday? Where are we?

Jon Campbell: I think, to my surprise, and just about every person in Albany's surprise, the Republicans don't appear ready to sue. They are okay with this new map. Even though it was drawn by Democrats, I think that Republicans were bracing for a very heavy democratic gerrymander, like what they tried in 2022, but that didn't really happen here. The really only significant changes happened in two swing districts, one held by Republican, one held by a Democrat, and Republicans don't really seem all that worked up about it. Even Ed Cox, the state Republican chairman, he said, there's no need for a lawsuit.

Brian Lehrer: Well, I'm curious why the Democrats who had control of these district lines in the legislature, they control both houses of the legislature. The map that the court drew two years ago, favored Republicans more than the lines that the Democratic legislature tried to draw in that year, 2022. Now, through all these machinations that we won't go over again, it's back in the court of the state legislature, Democrats still have control, but it's almost like they took a dive. Why weren't the Democrats more aggressive in drawing pro-Democrat lines, after they so loudly objected to the more favorable to Republican lines that the court drew?

Jon Campbell: Well, I think some of the reason is in the question that you just posed. In 2022, they did try a aggressive democratic gerrymander. It would have been 22 seats voted for Biden, 4 seats voted for Trump. That is really heavily tilted toward Democrats. Republicans sued and argued that it violates the anti-gerrymandering clause in the state constitution, and they won. I think in this case, you saw Democrats wary of that.

They didn't want this map to be overturned and they didn't want to go back to the old map. They exercised some restraint here. It is more beneficial to Democrats than the previous map that was drawn by the court in two key districts, one is Tom Swazis, the other is Brandon Williams up in the Syracuse area, and that could help them potentially pick up a seat in November.

Brian Lehrer: Let's get into some of the specifics of the map in the downstate area, district 16, which is currently represented by Jamaal Bowman, that's part of the Bronx, part of Westchester, has seen some changes to the Bronx portion of the district. You report that Co-op City, where Obama did very well in 2020 against then incumbent Democrat Eliot Engel in that year's primary, was added back to 16. On the surface, this seems like a benefit to the Bowman campaign, which is facing a strongly funded primary challenge by Westchester County Executive, George Latimer. That's just in the Democratic primary, but it's not that simple, right?

Jon Campbell: No, it's not that simple because this was Bronx for Bronx swap, mostly. There's a little bit of Mount Vernon that got swapped too, but this is a district that is heavily in Westchester County. It's got White Plains, and Mount Vernon and Yonkers and Rye. It only has a little bit of the Bronx. It had the Wakefield neighborhood in the very northern Bronx. Now it's going to shift from there over to the east. It's going to pick up the northeast part of East Chester and then pick up Co-op City which is 40,000 people live in that huge housing development in Co-op City.

It was definitely subject of some infighting behind the scenes between the Latimer factions and the Bowman factions. Jamaal Bowman used to be a principal. He was a school principal, he was the founding principal of CASA Middle School, which now will be re-added to his district. It was in his district before the last round of redistricting, and he'll get that back. That's good for him, but it's good for Latimer that he keeps the bulk of the district in Westchester County, which is his stomping grounds.

Brian Lehrer: Long Island hosts districts 1, 2, 3 and 4, which have all seen changes. The island is swing district territory. It used to be two Democrats, two Republicans in 2022, and all Republican, all four congressional seats. Very important to Republican stake in the house that year. How's the new map looking for Long Island?

Jon Campbell: The big change is in the 3rd Congressional District. That was the one that you might remember was held by a guy by the name of George Santos. Remember him?

Brian Lehrer: Oh, yes, I've heard of him. Was that his real name?

Jon Campbell: Yes.

Brian Lehrer: I'm just kidding.

Jon Campbell: It was picked up earlier this month in the special election by Tom Suozzi the Democratic former representative, now current representative. The big change there is it's going to shift East further into Suffolk County. It's going to pick up some of Huntington, which is democratic turf. That district is going to become more solidly democratic. That helps Tom Suozzi's chances of reelection.

Now, it had to cede Massapequa to Andrew Garbarino's district, that is the second district I believe, yes, the second district. That makes his district a little more Republican, and that makes his chances of reelection a little better. Long Island, the big change is Huntington added to Tom Suozzi's district, Massapequa ceded to Andrew Garbarino's.

Brian Lehrer: Right. The Democrats did get one of those four back after Santos was thrown out of power. Suozzi, of course, just won that special election, and it looks like he's at least fairly well positioned to keep it based on what you said. Some of those other Long Island races may yet be competitive, right?

Jon Campbell: Oh, absolutely. The seat that's held by Nick LaLota that's on the north shore of Suffolk County, and goes a whole way out east to Montauk, that's pretty much a 50/50 district in terms of who voted for Biden and Trump in 2020, which is usually how we try to judge whether these are democratic or republican districts. It is quite literally 50/50. That is a total toss up.

Brian Lehrer: One district I'm sure many Democrats had their eyes on changing was New York's 11th, and that's the one in New York City that encompasses parts of Brooklyn, and Staten Island. Republican Representative, Nicole Malliotakis has had strong showings in her district. Were there any changes there that would make it more competitive?

Jon Campbell: This is an easy one. Not a single change. Nothing. It stays exactly the same as it has been in the last two years, and that is one that was a little surprising. When the Democrats tried to draw a map in 2022, they had to go the whole way into Park Slope, which obviously is democratic turf, and that would have really endangered Nicole Malliotakis, the Republican, but that got thrown out by the court. The court drew a new map that just has it going into the Bensonhurst, Fort Hamilton area just on the tip of Brooklyn, and all of Staten Island. That doesn't change at all. The Democrats this time around left it be and I think Nicole Malliotakis is probably breathing a sigh of relief today.

Brian Lehrer: Last stop, Hudson Valley in the last round, some districts that were contested went one for the Democrats, with Pat Ryan in the Hudson Valley and other for the Republicans with Marc Molinaro. Did those change at all?

Jon Campbell: A very little bit. We saw the Independent Redistricting Commission as bipartisan panel put out a map, two weeks ago now, that would have made some changes that in Orange County and Ulster County that would have bolstered both Molinaro, the Republican and Pat Bryan, the Democrat. That angered some Democrats.

They made some changes there that took the Republican areas from orange county that were going to go to Marc Molinaro. They took those back away and they moved Molinaro back way up to Rensselaer County, way up near me in Albany here. That doesn't really have too much of a change on that district, it's still a swing district. The other surprise here too was Mike Lawler's district, he's the Republican who beat Sean Patrick Maloney in Northern Westchester and Putnam county and a little bit of Duchess.

His district barely changes at all, that is a Biden district to begin with that Republican, Mike Lawler was able to win. They didn't really touch that except for just a tiny bit in Duchess county but it doesn't really have any material effect.

Brian Lehrer: He's Rockland too. He's the congressman from the Tappan Zee Bridge?

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Jon Campbell: Yes, he is proud Rockland county resident.

Brian Lehrer: There we leave it but Jon just tell us is this the last word? Do you think we're not going to be doing another segment about jockeying over these congressional districts after the vote in the legislature yesterday? This is it. Is it?

Jon Campbell: I would never ever say never, but it's certainly feeling that way especially with the institutional republican saying that they're not going to sue.

Brian Lehrer: Jon Campbell, Albany reporter for WNYC and Gothamist. Thanks, Jon.

Jon Campbell: Thank you, Brian.

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