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Brian Lehrer: It's the Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC. Good morning again, everyone. On Friday, the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation announced that "The entire state is now at a high risk for fires, and the Hudson Valley is at very high risk." Commissioner Basil Seggos reminded New Yorkers to practice fire safety when camping in the state saying, "If you're enjoying the backcountry these last few weeks of summer, please think about whether you really need that campfire."

Now, if camping without a campfire sounds a bit boring, cold food, or draconian to you as a solution, consider that the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation reports six active fires currently burning throughout the state over 47 acres of land at least as of this weekend. The majority of these six fires were, in fact, started by unattended campfires according to the DEC which reported three recent wildfires in State Parks in Rockland, Orange, and Putnam counties including two in Harriman.

Harriman State Park there around exit 16 of the freeway. Now we're supposed to get rain all day today in our region, I think that's because we scheduled the fire safety segment here. Wouldn't have been better if it was a hot dry day? No, it's supposed to be soaking rains throughout the day. Will that even solve the fire problem? With me now is Heath Hockenberry, National Fire Weather Program Manager at the National Weather Service, part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Heath, thanks for coming on. Thanks for joining us today. Welcome to WNYC.

Heath Hockenberry: Well, thanks for having me, it's nice to be here virtually from Idaho.

Brian Lehrer: First, where the wildfire risk is much higher I know. Can you explain what goes into a designation like what we now have in New York? What does it mean environmentally to be at a high risk for fires?

Heath Hockenberry: Yes, we have a different combination of factors. Very critical back East is the number of days since appreciable rain, and then that rain has to be a soaker, so to say, over a longer-term period, the irony which is the precipitation today happening over one day. What the state needs and what it continues to need in New York is continual rains or rains over long-term periods.

The fact that it has been so dry five to six-inch rain deficits from what I understand. Looking at the other factor which is the fuels that burn, those dry out over time. There's an expectation from the fuels that they would get rain in a more frequent fashion. It's the combination of the fuels ready to burn and the weather pattern that created the rain deficits that--

Brian Lehrer: When you say the fuel is ready to burn, you're just talking about wood from the trees?

Heath Hockenberry: Yes. Mainly what carries the fuel, the fire or the small things like the twigs and the pine needles and the things that kind of fall to the ground that dry out really fast. The next level up is a different type of fuel which maybe is as big as your forearm. Those are the bigger things that dry out over time. When they start to burn, your fire danger really ramps up.

Brian Lehrer: What is a wildfire versus other fires? When does something get designated a wildfire? It's something that people in my region are not used to hearing as a local risk. We gawk at people closer to where you are and various places around the West as, "Oh, my God. Those wildfires that they have to deal with, it sounds horrible," when now we're talking about Rockland County, Orange County, Putnam County wildfires. What is a wildfire?

Heath Hockenberry: A wildfire is an outdoor fire versus a structure fire, first of all. The second piece is that a wildfire is, by its name, wild in nature. It is harder to control and it has all to do with the ability of your outdoor firefighters to be able to control, guide, and even put out or put lines in to stop the fire at a particular spot. When those fires that are outdoors start burning in an uncontrolled fashion, they are called wildfires.

Brian Lehrer: Do you know why the Hudson Valley region of New York, in particular, is at an elevated risk compared to the rest of the state right now?

Heath Hockenberry: I think that's the far Eastern portion and the Hudson Valley, Newburgh area I think is where it is and points towards obviously Massachusetts even in a worse state right now and Rhode Island. Just got into one of those precipitation deficit pockets where the weather patterns especially everything is connected out, here it's been 100 degrees for over 20 days in Idaho. We get locked into a pattern where your typical-- Let's get this thunderstorm in to create the rains, those patterns have been disrupted and disrupted for a long time. We've just run into a lot of lack of rain. I think that is the key factor.

Brian Lehrer: Listeners, who has a wildfire question or a fire safety question particularly a New York and Northeast and as you just heard it's also Massachusetts, it's also Rhode Island, it's our region generally, experiencing a rare risk of wildfires. Who has a question, who has a story 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692 or tweet @BrianLehrer for Heath Hockenberry, National Fire Weather Program manager at the National Weather Service, 212-433-9692. How rare is it for my area to be designated at a high risk of wildfires?

Heath Hockenberry: For a long-term period, it's relatively rare compared to other areas of the country obviously which is a continual battle. Historically, we really get worried about the Pine Barrens, Long Island that, in the past 100 years, have burnt significantly less than 10 times. Those times where things do burn, 1989 comes to mind, the August 1995 fires also. Then April of 2012, I believe, also. We're seeing there were significant fires.

When we're talking about frequency, once a decade where things really, really ramp up to the point where things get that scary, it's infrequent but a real danger even in the Northeast and I'm from the Northeast. I'm from the Susquehanna Valley, just a little bit South.

Brian Lehrer: Pennsylvania?

Heath Hockenberry: Yes, I grew up in Pennsylvania. I know how rare it is to not get that 40 inches of rain a year.

Brian Lehrer: Yes, and so how much-- This is not, listeners, our climate story of the week, we do Heath a climate story of the week on this show. We're going to do our official climate story of the week later in the week, but how much is this a story of climate change from your perspective at the National Weather Service?

Heath Hockenberry: Yes, well, you just got to go outside to see things are changing. like I said out here that all the patterns of the country are connected where when we get the blocking patterns, these big w-shaped wind patterns called Omega blocks. We've had a real persistent, hot ridge out West, and those patterns lead to lack of rain in some portions of the Northeast as a result.

We're seeing things country-wide burning year-round where they didn't before. It's been this way since the early 2000s and I've been in my job since 2005. It's just been a continual ramp-up. I'm not a climate change affecting fuels expert, I don't know how it's changing the vegetation but the weather patterns have been at least more pronounced and hotter.

Brian Lehrer: Keith in Brooklyn you're on WNYC. Hey, Keith?

Heath Hockenberry: Hey, Brian. Hey and thank you for taking my call again. I've been on the air before and I really love your show.

Brian Lehrer: Thank you.

Heath Hockenberry: I had a question regarding the term controlled burn. You hear this term as far as getting rid of some of that fuel that the expert was talking about. Is that something that has been considered or would be considered in areas like the New York regions that we've discussed or is it more drastic type of activity that we wouldn't think about yet?

Brian Lehrer: Interesting question. Heath?

Heath Hockenberry: Yes. The states, the Forest Service, anybody who has jurisdiction over a piece of land that is of public use, or even some private people have organized what's called controlled burns. In that sense, it's a purposely lit fire that attempts to especially wipe out and consume the smaller fuels and keep the fires small. Controlled burns happen across the entire country.

I'm not as familiar with the New York controlled burning program as parts of the west where I'm stationed, but I believe it's definitely a consideration. I know nationwide, Congress wants the entire nation to mitigate the fire problem by increasing our windows to control fires through controlled burns. The simple answer is yes, I think it's a consideration.

Brian Lehrer: Keith, thanks for your call. Keep calling us. I mentioned in the intro that the State Department of Environmental Conservation in New York has really honed in on campfires as a major cause of wildfires, which is why they're urging folks to either forego campfires or to practice the utmost care if they do make a campfire. Our campfire is the main culprits of wildfires in other parts of the country in western states, for example?

Heath Hockenberry: Yes. In the west, a little bit different variety of causes. People cause fires in populated areas, but a ton of fires are started by lightning. You've probably heard the stories of also power companies and bow and power lines and things of that nature. It is a combination. In the east and the southeast, it skews a little bit more towards human-caused where you get the campfires or something that is started by a human but when you look at the overall statistics, it's actually 50/50, 50% human and 50% lightning starts.

Brian Lehrer: By the way, listeners, if you are going camping between now and the end of the summer, the DEC press release says while camping in the backcountry, New Yorkers are advised to use existing campfire rings where possible, build campfires away from overhanging branches, steep slopes, rotten stumps, logs, dry grass, and leaves. Pile extra wood away from the fire, clear the area around the ring of leaves, twigs, and other flammable materials, and never leave a campfire unattended. Even a small breeze could cause the fire to spread quickly. Anything to add to that or anything on that list you want to elaborate on, Heath?

Heath Hockenberry: Yes. The small breeze is the key. I think that the term that we use is spotting. It's an effect where an ember is carried that's still hot enough to spark another fire. It's probably a good idea not only to use those safety measures but keep an air to the weather reports that you hear on this station, that you hear from your friends, anything that would say, hey, there's a wind advisory or there's a windstorm or even worse, what we call a red flag warning issued by the weather service.

That combination of knowing that, oh, it's a different type of year, first of all. Number two, oh, it's supposed to be windy today or Wednesday. If you don't know what day, you just take a moment or two to pay attention to that. It's a lot safer to have your campfires on a calmer wind day than it is [unintelligible 00:13:58]. Any appreciable breeze or even worse, a wind advisory or wind warning.

Brian Lehrer: Scott in New Haven you're on WNYC. Hi, Scott.

Scott: Good morning, Brian. A story I have is that my wife and I were driving from New Haven down to New Jersey. Along the Merritt expressway, we came across the fire that had just started out of nowhere and of course, caused a lot of traffic backup. We were amazed how dry things are up here and that the fire had just started alongside the road.

Brian Lehrer: Right along the Merritt Parkway. Do you know what town?

Scott: We were coming from New Haven. We were probably passing maybe Milford.

Brian Lehrer: Interesting. Heath, what is the elevated fire risk at campgrounds that we've been talking about primarily mean for people living in a dense suburb?

Heath Hockenberry: What really affects the most people with fires and when they get really big is smoke, and hopefully, we don't get a configuration enough to put out enough smoke and it affects mainly air quality, which is a big breathing factor for a lot of at-risk population as well. The fact that you live in an urban area does reduce the wildfire threat. Because of the resources and the artificial structures, it mitigates that issue, but still, you got to be aware that anything exposed to the environment, any small area of trees or any forested area, even anything along the road, a cigarette, a spark, some kind of thing can set a fire off no matter where you are if there's vegetation ready to burn.

Brian Lehrer: One more question that might be on everybody's mind today. Randolph in Highland Lakes, you're on WNYC. Hi, Randolph.

Randolph: Hi. You were in Sussex County. It's been really really dry out here. Probably no rain for the last six weeks of any potential amount. Today, it started raining around 9:15 or so, and it's been a gentle rain all-- Well, what is it? 11:30 now. I'm just curious because it started as a gentle rain, and it seems to be soaking in well. If we get a harder rain like in a thunderstorm later on today, will the capillary action set up by the gentle rain mitigate the problems of hard rain when we've been so dry?

Brian Lehrer: Yes. That's an interesting two-way question. I will say again, for our listeners, maybe not where you are, but in Somerset County in New Jersey, and in Hunterdon County, and also in Morris County, and I'm looking him up. There's one more. Oh, also Sussex. Oh, you're in Sussex, ain't you? Your county too there is a flash flood advisory in effect until about three o'clock this afternoon. How do all these things come together, Heath?

Heath Hockenberry: It's amazing how many fires even that I've been on out west where the fire ends by a flash flood. It doesn't go partway, we're leading gently. The best rains and I like the caller's description is the gentle rain, the rain that begins in a nice steady soaking fashion, not a flashy or thunderstorm type of precipitation because, obviously, that tends to go a little too hard for the ground to soak it in. Especially those fuels that I was talking about that are as big as your arm, they need a lot gentler type of rain over a longer type of period to mitigate the problem.

Obviously, any rain is extremely helpful to mitigate the wildfire problem, but it'd be nice to have this over a couple of days. I think the outlook is through the Wednesday time period for a good chance of often on rain and that's going to help a lot but to make up the six inches plus that is needed and the weather patterns that are on the horizon that are setting in after this rain event, I think there will be continued threats, especially into the fall because the longer-range outlook doesn't have too dry conditions but there's not an overall abundance in the forecast to make up the deficit either. I think the state is taking the really appropriate steps given what the environment has given us these past 60 days.

Brian Lehrer: Heath Hockenberry, National Fire Weather Program Manager at the National Weather Service part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Thanks so much for all the information really interesting. Good luck. Be safe out there in Idaho. Thanks a lot.

Heath Hockenberry: Thank you very much.

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