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Brian Lehrer: It's The Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC. Good morning, everyone. It's Friday October 2nd. If you were wondering which campaign would pull the first October surprise, the answer is neither. It's the October surprise from science. Defy science enough times with magical thinking and science will most likely catch up with you. It could happen with the climate, and it can happen with the coronavirus. Remember, a virus is a living organism, it's part of nature, it's part of science, not politics. Make a big show enough times of thumbing your nose at science in your personal behavior, and you increase your odds.

Science doesn't feel offended. Science doesn't get revenge. Science isn't a Democrat or Republican. Science just is. Here we are with today's breaking news. The president says he and the first lady have the coronavirus, and the president does have symptoms, according to the New York Times. The first October surprise winds up coming from science. What happens now? Joining me now is Annie Karni, New York Times White House correspondent, and an NBC News and MSNBC contributor. Annie, thanks for coming on on short notice today considering the breaking news. Welcome back to WNYC.

Annie Karni: I always say yes to Brian. Yes, I'm happy to be here.

Brian: We really appreciate that. The newest news is the report that the president is showing symptoms. What can you tell us?

Annie: Yes, he was showing some cold-like symptoms this morning. My colleague, Maggie Haberman, reported that this morning. The aides have noticed some things off about his behavior, his voice sounded a little gravelly and sick in his interview with Sean Hannity last night, and in his remarks at a fundraiser yesterday, that some aides noticed it that he didn't sound like himself. His rally in Minnesota earlier this week, it was 45 minutes long, which is about half the length of an average Trump rally. They usually run 90 minutes to 2 hours long.

At the time, we didn't know why that was, whether if it was a reaction to his debate performance, but they are never that short. That has been flagged as a potential, another sign that he has been not feeling 100%.

Brian: Is he getting any specific treatment or medical advice that you can report?

Annie: We don't know yet. We should be getting more information from the White House later today, but they have not told us anything other than the doctor's note that the White House physician, Dr. Conley, put out last night, that just said that the first lady and the president tested positive.

Brian: Listeners, we can take phone calls for New York Times White House correspondent, Annie Karni, on the breaking news that the president has coronavirus, and is experiencing what they call mild symptoms. You can ask medical questions. You can ask political questions, whatever you want. 646-435-7280, 646-435-7280. Annie, the president acknowledged he is quarantining, what does that mean in the case of the president of the United States?

Annie: We will see what it looks like for him. Right now, it means that he and the first lady have pulled down their schedule. Last night, they said that he's still doing a call to talk to seniors about the risks of the coronavirus that was already on his schedule, but it takes on some different meaning now that he is a senior with the coronavirus who will be leading the call. They pulled down his schedule for today. I'm assuming that it will mean he doesn't travel for two weeks.

Depending on how he's feeling. what I'm hearing is there is some effort to figure out a way for him to show himself to the American people to reduce concerns, but they don't know what that will look like yet, but to have him out there in some way every day that they can. How long he stays in quarantine? Last night, before he tweeted the positive test, he tweeted that he would be quarantining until he got his test results. It wasn't clear if that was just an overnight quarantine, which wouldn't be much of a quarantine at all, so we don't know yet. Right now, he's not leaving the White House. He pulled down his schedule for the day and the White House aides are trying to figure out ways to show that he's okay.

Brian: What will the president do or not do in terms of his duties?

Annie: They say he's fully capable of continuing in all of his functions as president, just the travel schedule, the rallies, the fundraisers, the meetings with aides that have been happening, that's not happening, at least for today.

Brian: Also announced in the last hour, Vice President Pence and his wife have tested negative, so we don't have to worry too much for the moment about lines of succession scenarios I guess. What is Vice President Pence doing differently today as result of this news?

Annie: Not clear. The last time the vice president was exposed to Trump was on Tuesday morning in Washington. His office has not said whether he will also pull down his travel schedule while the president is in quarantine. He has been traveling since March constantly in battleground states. He is on the road more than any other administration official. He has had his own issues with, and he usually is photographed not in a mask. I remember he drew a lot of criticism early on for visiting the Mayo Clinic and flouting their guidelines that required all visitors to the clinic to wear masks. He did not wear a mask while there.

He said he didn't feel the need to wear a mask because he was tested regularly. He's drawn his own criticism about mask-wearing, but right now, they said that they'll get back to us soon about what his schedule will look like in the coming weeks.

Brian: How did the president get the virus?

Annie: We never know for sure how anyone gets the virus, but the succession of events we learned about, we learned that Hope Hicks tested positive on Thursday after feeling sick. We learned that because one of my White House Press Corps colleagues, Jennifer Jacobs of Bloomberg News reported it. The White House did not announce it. They, in fact, did not want to come out that Hope Hicks, one of the most closest advisors to the president was showing symptoms and had tested positive. After that, the president and the first lady said they were getting tested. In an interview with Sean Hannity last night, the president said that he was awaiting his test results.

He said, "I don't know yet whether we have it." His comment was very strange, and the fact that he said he'd be quarantining until he got the test results was also, raised a lot of red flags for us as journalists because the president's national security advisor, Robert O'Brien, tested positive. Two valets that work closely with the president in the residence tested positive. At no time during those cases did the president ever say he was quarantining awaiting test results, so that he clearly was acting differently around this one, which made us on high alert, even before the announcement that he too, had tested positive last night.

Brian: Can you take us into a more detailed timeline about-- sorry, is the timeline that the president was still not quarantining earlier this week, even when he knew his aide, Hope Hicks, had tested positive, and that they had had close contact?

Annie: The timeline is, Hope Hicks tested positive Thursday morning. She started to feel symptoms Wednesday on the plane ride home from Minnesota. She quarantined on the plane. As of Wednesday night, the president knew that someone he's in contact with regularly was showing symptoms. On Thursday, he had a regular schedule, but we didn't see him. His events yesterday were virtual. He spoke at the Al Smith dinner which was virtual. He had this call-in with Hannity which was virtual. Other aides like Kayleigh McEnany, who had been exposed to hope Hicks, held a press briefing with reporters on Thursday.

I'm seeing reports this morning when she came out into the briefing room without a mask to talk to reporters, she's saying she didn't know yet of Hope's positive test. We're still in the process of figuring out who knew what, when, what, how irresponsible or responsible they were about not putting themselves in contact with other people until they knew how they had tested. Everyone is kind of getting tested today. We've seen reports this morning that Jared and Ivanka have tested negative, in addition to the vice president. Ronna McDaniel, the RNC chairwoman has tested positive, Barron, the President's youngest son has tested negative. We're going to be getting reports all day as we figure out how widespread this became within Trump's inner circle.

I also would just like to say that throughout the week, this was kind of a remarkable week and that I think, because of the events the president was participating in, just 30 something days before the election, he was in close contact and on the plane with almost everyone in his circle. His entire family was on the plane to the debate with him, no one wearing masks at the-- he had fundraisers at Bedminster and at a supporter's house in Minnesota. He had a Rose Garden press conference with three cabinet secretaries and the chief executive of Abbott Testing.

He did a variety of events. He did a rally in front of thousands of supporters. He was all over the place. Oh, he did debate prep sessions in small quarters in the West Wing with all of his top campaign aides, Chris Christie and Rudy Giuliani. He's seen everyone up close this week that ever really deals with him.

Brian: What's the protocol for all those people, especially the ones who were in close quarters and indoor spaces with him? Do they all have to quarantine now? Rudy Giuliani, Chris Christie, everyone else?

Annie: Do they have to? I don't know what have to is in this White House, that doesn't really make following the rules, a hallmark of the administration. I expect that when these people receive negative tests, they will not feel the need to quarantine. They have a lot of work to do. Judge Barrett has been in the White House and saw the President on Saturday, she has tested negative. She has a very short scheduled to get this confirmation done. I don't think she has time to quarantine. With a negative result, that will probably suffice for them.

We'll have to see how everyone handles this and I think more will become apparent throughout the day. White House officials have been going to the White House this morning to get tested.

Brian: Are they saying under what understanding of science, or CDC protocols, or their own protocols the president went about his business as he did this week, after presumably knowing that Hope Hicks, who he had close contact with had tested positive.?

Annie: Sorry, say it again?

Brian: Are they saying under what understanding of science or CDC protocols or their own protocols, the president went about his business having close contact with so many people after he knew that Hope Hicks, with whom he had close contact, tested positive?

Annie: Her positive test only came back yesterday. It would only be his Thursday schedule that would-- I'm just actually pulling it up right now to take a look. Yes, he was in--

Brian: Bedminster?

Annie: Bedminster. He gave remarks at a roundtable of supporters and at a fundraising reception, Thursday afternoon. That's the only event that should be under scrutiny for how did he behave after knowing that he had been in close contact with a positive case. I think what science is telling us is that, if you know that you've been in contact with someone who is positive, you should not be in contact with other people. I think that we should be looking at those Bedminster events, in terms of contact tracing and in terms of asking questions about what rules did he not and regulations did he not follow.

Brian: Clara in Rockville Center, you're on WNYC with New York Times White House correspondent, Annie Connie. Hi, Clara.

Clara: Hi. Let's just follow the science. Who is the medical doctor who signed off on the president and Melania's virus? When did that CDC doctor sign off?

Brian: I'm not sure what CDC doctor she's referring to. Are there various doctors in this scenario? Is there some storyline there that I'm not getting, Annie?

Annie: I think there's a White House physician, the president's Physician, Dr. Conley, who announced the findings last night that the president was positive. I've seen a lot of lefty conspiracy theories online this morning that maybe he's making it up, which maybe is the basis of this question. Do we really trust the doctor that Trump really has the virus? I think there's two things on that. One is that the White House physicians in this administration have given us no reason to have full faith in them.

Dr. Ronnie Jackson, you'll remember, talked about how the president was in perfect health, would probably lived 'til he was 200-something years old. Dr. Conley was very vague earlier this summer when he issued a statement about the president taking hydroxychloroquine. His statement was kind of mealy-worded, and it wasn't clear whether he had prescribed it.

Yes, there's reason to say, "Why should I believe what the White House medical unit is telling me?" That being said, I don't understand this theory of the case from the left, because I can't imagine anything worse politically for Trump than to have to admit he got the virus, and to have to pull himself down for two weeks with only 30-something days left in the race. To me, it makes no sense that this isn't real.

Brian: I'm sure you're seeing Twitter with all the conspiracy theories. This is not what we will emphasize on this program, but that one is all over the place that this is being staged by the president to pretend, to--

Annie: I don't see how that helps him.

Brian: To show that he could get the virus and be fine in a few days. Another one is that these RNC people and campaign people who have it, infected him on purpose, so that they'll get rid of him politically. He'll lose the election at very least, or have to turn over the presidency to Pence, but these are what we label them, conspiracy theories.

Annie: They're conspiracy theories, and the thing that has to be remembered about this more, this is an incredibly shocking development but why is it surprising? That a president who has been traveling and doing rallies, and being exposed to people all the time, and working in an environment where officials have taken negative tests that they take as a license not to wear a mask or do any other practices like social distancing? Why would it be a surprise that he would contract the virus?

Brian: Yes, that's what I was saying at the beginning of the show about science. It could happen if you're--

Annie: A story we wrote last night, the president kind of has had that attitude. A lot of aides were in total shock last night, but the President has been telling people, telling associates, his attitude towards the virus has kind of been fatalistic. Kind of, "If I get it, I get it. It's a roll of the dice," has been how he's viewed the potential for this to happen.

Brian: Because he's rolling the dice, that chances are with all the testing of people who come in contact with him, he won't get it. Then, he can continue to make the points about reopening the economy and how that benefits him politically, that he can make?

Annie: I don't know exactly why he's thinking like that. I think he has seen this hit other world leaders, people in his inner circle. I think he just realizes that he's going to keep doing what he's doing. He's not going to do the stay in his basement strategy that he has accused Biden of doing and that this is like, if you're out there, you could get it, and that's that.

Brian: Well, defy science enough times with magical thinking and the odds are that science will catch up with you, as I said in the intro. One slight correction from my intro, by the way, I referred to viruses as living organisms, and somebody called up to say, "No, they're not living organisms." I checked Scientific American and it says that viruses are thought of as being in a gray area between living and nonliving. They cannot replicate on their own, but can do so in truly living cells, and can also affect the behavior of their hosts profoundly, so a slight correction to what I said at the top in that respect. Scientific American says viruses are thought of as being in a gray area between living and nonliving.

Amanda in-- Go ahead, Annie.

Annie: I have one more thing, I'm just thinking as you're talking, another thing about the president and his health. There's the mystery of this physical that he took. He took this surprise trip to Walter Reed to get some tests. They never told us what the test were. They claimed he was getting a "early jumpstart on his annual physical", which he never completed. That has been this big mystery.

Brian: How long ago?

Annie: I'm trying to remember. This is not related to COVID, no, this was like six months ago, pre-virus. What I'm saying is that, while the president has a virus that is potentially fatal to some people, it would be a great time for the American people to be able to have trust in what they're telling us about his health. This is a time when the track record of what they told us about his health is just not there. They've never told us the full truth and have given us a full picture of the president's health, and that is very concerning to me, at a time when everyone should want to be able to trust that what the White House is telling us about how the president is doing right now is accurate.

Brian: Listeners, if you're just joining us, and especially if this is your first dose of news today, we're talking about the breaking news that President Trump and Melania Trump have tested positive for the coronavirus and White House officials tell the New York Times and other news organizations that the president is experiencing mild symptoms. My guest is Annie Karni, White House correspondent for The New York Times. Annie, I will say that 8 of our 10 lines are with callers with the conspiracy theories.

Annie: Wow.

Brian: I'm going to take one of the other two, and that's Tom in Sea Bright. You're on WNYC, hi, Tom?

Tom: Hello, good morning. Thanks for taking my call. I'd like to ask your guest, is I've heard reports that the testing machine, the device that the White House uses, it's not one of the best. They're quick, but they have a high false-negative rate 30% to 50%. Is that true, and why would they do that if it was true? Are they trying to hide things and if Hope Hicks is a super spreader, could she have infected almost the whole leadership in the Republican Party?

Brian: Annie, on his first question, I guess it comes down to what kind of a test did they use? Do we know?

Annie: Right. We don't know. To screen the staff, they use this rapid test that misses infections 48% of the time. It's definitely not. Again, like I said, the staff has used these negative tests they get as a reason not to wear masks at the White House and they're not completely accurate. I don't know what other tests the president got last night. Also, I think he probably got more than one test.

I imagine that before they put out the statement last night and his tweet, I imagine-- again, this is speculating, but the way I can see it is that he, maybe at one of these rapid tests was positive, and before announcing it, they waited to get another test back to see if they could get a negative before having to announce this. They haven't told us yet the full timeline of how many tests he got, which tests he got. I think they will give us more information like that today.

Brian: Becky in Harlem, you're on WNYC with Annie Karni, White House correspondent for The Times. Hi, Becky.

Becky: Hi. First of all, I am a huge fan of this show. I listen every day, so I'm very excited to be on.

Brian: Thank you.

Becky: I just had a question about Amy Coney Barrett's nomination. She was in close contact with the president last week. I know I heard you say earlier that she's been tested and her test came out negative, but who makes the call on whether her confirmation, rush confirmation goes through? How does that all kind of work going forward?

Annie: These are all the big questions that our Congress team will be trying to answer this week. I have a feeling that who makes the call about her confirmation hearing is Mitch McConnell, who will make the call that it goes forward. I don't think there's much that could stop him from pushing ahead with this, regardless of what is happening with the president's health.

Brian: Annie, what's the Trump campaign saying about this? I'm on their email list, as many journalists are, to see what they send to their supporters. I usually get many emails a day, so far today, crickets, is the campaign saying anything?

Annie: They have said nothing publicly, there's been no statement from the campaign. Privately, I think people are in shock and processing. Bill Stepien, the campaign manager, Jason Miller, the top campaign strategist, they've been in very close quarters with Hope all week long, especially because of the debate. She's been involved in debate prep with them, so I think that they have to figure out who else has been exposed, who else might be sick? There has been no message to the supporters except for--

You saw some messaging on Fox last night from Trump. The line that I've seen out there from Trump allies is, the president is as strong as a 30-year-old and this is going to be nothing, he's not even going to feel anything, it's going to be a minimal health event. In fact, he is technically obese, which makes them more at risk of serious illness, and he is in his 70s, so he is a high-risk person to get the virus. The messaging I've seen so far from Trump campaign allies is that he's going to be so strong and not feel a thing. This is going to be gone like a blip.

Brian: What about the Biden campaign, the President has mocked Joe Biden, for wearing a mask too much, wearing a mask that's big, all this stuff? Never mind a mask is supposed to cover as much as your face as it can, but are they saying anything yet?

Annie: I saw that Joe Biden tweeted this morning, "Thoughts to President Trump and First Lady Melania for a swift recovery." Basically, they're saying thoughts and prayers, which is probably politically, the only thing for him to say right now. I think that there's probably a little bit of feeling like, "The basement strategy isn't looking so stupid right now, is it?", but it is kind of shocking to-- you can find, just on the debate stage, the president made fun of Joe Biden for wearing a mask all the time, and said he's always wearing a mask if he's 200 feet away.

You can find over the past week, downplaying the virus, poking fun at mask-wearing, while this virus is starting to come into his inner circle, and finally, to him. The juxtaposition is incredible.

Brian: Later, we'll have a doctor on--

Annie: I don't know that it will change their messaging. A lot of senior White House officials have gotten sick already, and this virus has already infected the President's inner circle to the point of making people scared of exactly this happening, and it hasn't changed their messaging since March, so I don't know.

Brian: The election in a certain respect might hinge at this point on whether he has a mild case, and is able to come out and say, "See people get it, even 74-year-old people get it, and people who are overweight get it, and most of them recover, and we shouldn't be locking down the economy so much," or if he has a really serious case, the opposite.

Brian: Correct. I think the best-case scenario now for the White House is to do the former to have him do some sort of sign-of-life appearance to show people he looks okay, he sounds okay. Yes, exactly. If he can recover this, he can use it as an example of, "Look, it's not the flu, but it's not that bad,", is something he could potentially come out of this saying, but we just don't know yet and he's already does have symptoms. It's already not a nothing.

Brian: Johnny in Greenlawn, you're on WNYC. Hi, Johnny.

Johnny: Hey, Brian, big fan. So good to hear you covering all this and doing all you do for us all through the pandemic and everything.

Brian: Thank you.

Johnny: My question is, is there any precedent to the president getting sick during an election, and is there any possible angle he could take that might postpone the actual election?

Brian: Oh, boy.

Annie: I don't know on the former or sorry, on the latter. Presidents have-- if presidents are medically incapacitated they can transfer power to the vice president under the 25th Amendment. It's been done a few times when presidents have had medical procedures. Presidents have fallen ill in office, like I'm just looking at my colleague Peter Baker wrote about this last night, Woodrow Wilson was sick after the Paris Peace Talks after World War I. Some historians thought that was the influenza.

Brian: Spanish flu.

Annie: Yes. Presidents have died in office of natural causes. Eisenhower had a heart attack in his first term and a stroke in his second term. Presidents have been assassinated in office. There's a long history of health crises of sitting presidents but not in modern-day history.

Brian: Let's play it all the way out, what if he dies before the election, what would happen to the election?

Annie: I'm just not ready to play that theoretical game yet. I don't have the answers. I am not ready on-the-spot to answer that question.

Brian: Okay, that's fair enough. Other world leaders have had the virus, Boris Johnson and others, does anything from their experience suggest how a government handles the situation depending on how sick the leader is?

Annie: I mean, Boris Johnson was very sick, he was hospitalized. I just think that these might be good examples but what's happened-- I mean, for the President of the United States to get it within days of the election when he's supposed to have a debate in two weeks, I think this is just a different scenario. So far, in terms of the functioning of the government, they've made no signs that there has to be anything done to change. So far there hasn't been any changes to him being able to function in his duties as president.

Brian: All right. We will leave it there for now. We thank Annie Karni, White House correspondent for The New York Times and an NBC News and MSNBC contributor, for hopping on with us on short notice this morning to talk about the breaking news that the president says he and the First Lady have coronavirus. The president does have some symptoms that they're characterizing as mild, observable to some degree, and the president's raspy voice over the last day or two, and him doing a much shorter rally than he had been doing at the last rally that he led. We will see what happens

We will continue to cover this story, of course, if there's anything breaking throughout the morning. We will have another guest on it in a little while who's a doctor, who's going to give us more of the medical perspective as opposed to the Washington perspective. That's coming up. Annie, thank you so much for joining us today. We really appreciate it.

Annie: Thank you. I appreciate it.

 

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