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Brian Lehrer: It's The Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC. Good morning, everyone. On this day between the South Carolina and Michigan primaries, here are three things that I noticed from the South Carolina exit polls on Saturday that might be worth mentioning. I haven't heard these talked about very much, just the fact that Trump beat Haley by 20 points, but she's staying in the race.

Listen to these contrasts. Around two-thirds of Trump voters in the exit polls said they want a national abortion ban covering all or most abortions. Those were the Trump voters. About the same share of Haley voters, about two-thirds of them oppose a national ban. That's a really big split, and maybe a defining split in 2024 between two pretty big blocks of Republicans, could mean something in November for the general election with national limits on abortion being reportedly considered by Trump as a campaign platform.

Another one was about the economy. Listen to this disconnect. Only about one out of every six of all the South Carolina primary voters polled. A tiny percentage of voters said the nation's economy is in good shape, but on their own personal finances, about 80% said their own financial situations are good or at least neutral. Their perception is so much worse than their experience of the economy.

One more, the number one quality that Trump voters were looking for in a candidate was a fighter for people like me, a fighter for people like me, someone who fights for people like me, was the exact wording. Who were the South Carolina Republican primary voters? 92% white, 60% Evangelical. Trump won 90% of those voters who said, "Fights for people like me," is what they won in a candidate, but Haley won 90% of those who said temperament is more important. The problem for Haley is there were a lot more "fights for people like me" voters among those 92% white and 60% Evangelical South Carolina Republicans than there were temperament voters.

Now, tomorrow comes Michigan where Trump and Haley are at it again, and where Joe Biden might be cringing, even though he is running basically unopposed because he has so alienated the important Arab American population in that swing state. That could matter in November, not really tomorrow, but we may get an interesting taste of how tomorrow, one way or another.

With us now, Jonathan Martin, Politico's senior political columnist and co-author of the book, This Will Not Pass: Trump, Biden, and the Battle for America's Future. Some recent headlines from Jonathan, Get Used to It: Biden Isn't Going Anywhere, Forget No Labels. Biden's Third-Party Peril is on the Left, and Donald Trump wrecked the South Carolina primary. Jonathan, thanks for coming on at a busy moment for you. Welcome back to WNYC.

Jonathan Martin: Great to be back, Brian. Appreciate it.

Brian Lehrer: Well, we know Trump won the South Carolina primary. What do you mean in that headline by he wrecked it?

Jonathan Martin: Historically, the South Carolina primary was a lot of things. It was famously dirty or infamously dirty. It was often decisive, especially in democratic races, sort of the crucial first race in the South, and the first time Black voters had a say in democratic primaries. Then, obviously, for Joe Biden, it was memorably important because it was the state that turned his campaign around twice.

It was boring this time. The South Carolina primary was never boring, and it was, why was it boring? Because we're locked in a demography's destiny primary in which we know the outcome of these states. They're basically preordained by the demographics county by county of the state. The primary, Brian, has effectively become the general election when we know the results based on gender, race, education, income level, and that's what's driving this race. That's why Nikki Haley effectively left for dead after New Hampshire. Not a real primary, a zombie candidate is still getting 40% of the vote.

Brian Lehrer: Yes, right.

Jonathan Martin: Because Brian, what matters here is not the give and take of a campaign, or gas, or what have you. It's pure demography. 35% to 40% of the GOP does not want Donald Trump, and they're not going anywhere.

Brian Lehrer: Let me play a clip to that effect. The final totals, the last I saw were right on these round numbers, Trump got 60% of the vote and Haley got 40%. Here's Nikki Haley yesterday on that particular split.

Niki Haley: Today in South Carolina, we're getting around 40% of the vote.

[applause]

Niki Haley: That's about what we got in New Hampshire too. I'm going to count it. I know 40% is not 50%.

[laughter]

Niki Haley: But I also know 40% is not some tiny group.

Brian Lehrer: Nikki Haley, I said yesterday, that was Saturday. Jonathan, given that kind of result in such a deeply conservative electorate as South Carolina's Republican primary voters are, does that describe a party unified behind Trump or a party at civil war with itself, or how would you put it?

Jonathan Martin: Brian, I would put it like this. If we were in Europe or any parliamentary democracy, the Republican Party would've long since fractured into two parties. You would've had a pre-Trump, Bushy and internationalist, pro-free trade, pro-immigration, much more engaged in the world party, and you would have had a more populist, isolationist party led by Trump. The fact that they're still under one roof, it's remarkable, a testament to the endurance of our two-party system in America, but it doesn't mean that marriage is going well, right?

Yes, they're still living together, but it's a pretty fitful union because there are profound differences, especially along class lines. We don't mind talking about class in American life too much, but that's really the dividing line here, Brian. If you look at the South Carolina map, you don't have to have a PhD in political science to grasp that anywhere you go and you find more voters with college degrees, you're going to find people who don't want Trump again. That's the dividing line in this primary and really in politics broadly around America.

Brian Lehrer: We saw, again, in the exit polls in this primary, I didn't cite this one at the top, but it's pretty well known, Trump did so much better than Nikki Haley among those without college degrees. I would have to look at the number again. She either matched him or beat him among those with college degrees.

Jonathan Martin: That's right. You just look at places like Charleston and Beaufort, which are full of retirees with money or recent college graduates. It matters, Brian, not because this primary suddenly is going to get competitive. It's not, but we know where this is going, and Haley has a pretty firm ceiling because Trump has remade the GOP coalition. It matters because of the general election because how does Trump put this fractious party back together in the fall? I think Biden being the opponent helps, and he'll get some of them back by saying the alternative is that enfeebled Joe Biden, going into his mid-80s, but he's not going to get all of them back. He's going to lose some of them.

Brian Lehrer: I want to take a step back. Can you take this step back and do a little basic civics just based on something you said? If we were in many European countries, the Republican Party would've fractured into internationalist, et cetera, party, and an isolationist, et cetera, party. The Constitution doesn't say we have it. By the way, we could have some of the same bit of conversation about the Democratic Party, but there is no two-party system mandated in the Constitution. Why is it so rigidly like this?

Jonathan Martin: It's a great question. Books and books filling up libraries have written about this over the decades. Look, I think the most immediate issue now is the polarization of the country. The power of negative partisanship, which is a poli sci term for people voting against the opposition because of their hatred for the opposition more than voting affirmatively for their side. That's the biggest driver that keeps people locked into two parties.

We're in an odd moment, Brian, where the parties themselves have never been weaker, but partisanship has never been stronger, which sounds incongruous, but that's where we're at when people are voting more against the other side than for their side. The broader issue, Brian, is ballot access. The structural challenges are certainly in place for getting beyond two parties.

Brian Lehrer: We're going to get to third parties in this election as we go. I mentioned your article headline about Biden's third-party challenge, not being from the center, the no-labels party, but from the left, and we will get to that. It was also interesting to me in the South Carolina exit polls to the point you were just making that a lot of Trump voters said they were affirmatively voting for him, not against the other person, so call it a cult or call it whatever you want. I don't think we'd find the same percentage among Democrats planning to vote for Biden. Like, "Wow, Joe Biden," but for better or worse Trump has that.

Jonathan Martin: Well, I call it a primary. It's a fraction of the electorate. It's a self-selecting audience that's going to show up on a Saturday in February. These are people who follow politics to some significant degree, but you mentioned the Democratic coalition, and this is important. What unifies Republicans is fear or contempt of the left and the real and perceived excesses of the left.

Brian, what adheres the Democratic coalition is Trump. Trump is the biggest driver of both parties. He obviously controls the Republican Party for reasons we know, but he also effectively runs the Democratic Party because opposition to him is what has been cohering a coalition that ranges from socialists to Joe Manchin for the last nine years. The day that Trump is gone, Democrats are going to have a profound challenge because he's their best unifier.

By the way, that's why Biden doesn't face real opposition in his own party because that's the greatest sin in democratic politics. You can't do anything to help Trump. If you question Biden's fitness, you're effectively helping Trump, and you can't use the other tribe's talking points because then you're helping the bad guys.

Brian Lehrer: We'll get more into Biden when we get to Part 2 of this conversation. Listeners, any reaction to the South Carolina Republican primary results or the narrative that some of the exit polling seems to reveal, or anyone listening in Michigan right now want to tell us anything about the campaigning or the politics there on either the Republican or the Democratic side ahead of tomorrow's Michigan primary, or anything else about the presidential race right now for Jonathan Martin, Senior Political Columnist for Politico, 212-433-WNYC.

When you're the senior political columnist for something called Politico, you know you're in a prominent position. 212-433-WNYC. Call or text 212-433-9692. How about from those divides and contradictions among the voters based on the South Carolina exit polls that I cited in the intro, what do you think of this big divide on abortion rights between Trump's 60% and Haley's 40%? They were so on the opposite side of abortion, two-thirds of Trump voters said yes to national ban, and two-thirds of Haley voters said no.

Jonathan Martin: I think a lot of that is because much of Haley's vote Brian comes from what I would call moderate Republicans, independents who weren't really in the political center, and some Democrats who are just trying to weaken Trump, and so that's a coalition if you will. It's not terribly enamored with a national ban on abortion rights.

Brian Lehrer: A Republican coalition?

Jonathan Martin: Exactly. Right.

Brian Lehrer: The big "fights for people like me" vote from the exit polls, it makes it seem like-- You were making this point before. This is somewhat about tribalism or identity politics as much as about issues. How much do you think that's true in a party that claims to be against identity politics as one of their biggest things?

Jonathan Martin: Oh, there's no question about it. Now, it's a huge driver. In fact, I would say it's probably the biggest driver in the Republican Party. It's not an issues-oriented coalition. It's much more about enmity and alarm about what they see as the march of the left. Some of that's wrapped up in issues, but it's much more of a cultural thing. Those guys are crazy, and I don't love Trump, but look, he's the only one that's not them. Trump's got his fans. You mentioned this. Obviously, he's got core support that's real, but I think Trump's broader support is much more based in opposition to the left than it is any enthusiasm about him.

Brian Lehrer: About identity, did you see the coverage of the Trump rally, or maybe you even covered it at the Federation for Black Conservatives in South Carolina? I know Trump made headlines for one of his comments, but I read on one side that Trump asked Black people in the room to raise their hands if they're for Trump. I guess he was looking for a photo op, but according to what I read, only one person did, and that the crowd at the Federation for Black Conservatives event was mostly white. Can you confirm that?

Jonathan Martin: I wasn't there, so I can't speak to the room, but look, I think he knows he's got to have some elements of Black support especially if he's going to be convicted by a DC jury that's likely to be a perhaps half or more African American and by a presiding judge who's a Black woman. I think he recognizes that he has to have some support among Black voters. Trump has a feral genius about this when it comes to trying to compare himself to the plight of some Black voters. 90% of which I think dismiss his claims, but it doesn't stop him from doing this, saying he feels persecuted too. Look, that's what he does, that's his MO.

He talks in a style that is wildly out of date. It sounds like a 1960s New Yorker talking about the Blacks. That's the language he uses, and that's why I think he's got a real challenge ahead of him because, Brian, every time he speaks, he reminds people of why they voted him out in 2020. I said this before, Trump, I think would be better off in the general, certainly in the primary if he never left Mar-a-Lago and just made this entirely about Biden. Every time he speaks, he helps Biden.

Brian Lehrer: Why is Nikki Haley staying in the race?

Jonathan Martin: I think she wants to be the last person standing. I think she wants to stay through Super Tuesday. I got X number of delegates. I got X number of millions of voters. Don't forget these big mega-states that are voting on Super Tuesday are going to give her a lot of votes. It's not going to get her beyond that band of 35% to 42%, which is basically her coalition, but, Brian, in '28 or '32 she can say, "I went toe to toe with Trump. I was the alternative. Look, do you guys want to wake up and go to rehab, Republicans, or do you want to keep losing? If you want to start winning again, I'm your gal." I think this is all aimed at trying to stick it out and be the last person in the race against him.

Brian Lehrer: Also, in case the legal system bites him in a way that forces him to drop out.

Jonathan Martin: I don't think the timing works there, Brian, is the problem because first of all, I don't think he's dropping out for any reason. Secondly, if for whatever reason, let's say that one of these trials came to a conclusion by the convention this summer, that's really unlikely, timing-wise, the Republican Convention would not dump him. They would nominate a felon. I just don't think it's realistic, timing-wise or politically, that that would happen this year.

Brian Lehrer: Right, or even with health concerns. If Haley is running on being a new generation-

Jonathan Martin: It wouldn't be her.

Brian Lehrer: -making the point that Donald Trump is about as old as Joe Biden. If you look at their physical fitness for all people who like to talk about Joe Biden's age, and his gait is a little slow, and his speech is sometimes a little halting. He's in pretty good shape. Trump's the one who may be one cheeseburger away from something.

Jonathan Martin: I don't think Trump's riding the peloton, Brian, these days too much. Yes, not known as a fitness buff, but apparently, he has pretty good genes here, so we shall see. The other thing, let's say that Trump, for whatever reason, health or legal, I think it's unlikely, they wouldn't pick her as the alternative because she's not Trumpy. If they had to pick somebody else, it would be in the image of Trump because it's his party. It wouldn't be The Wall Street Journal editorial page favorite who's running as a throwback to a pre-Trump party. It would be somebody like Trump.

Brian Lehrer: Yes. Right. Vivek Ramaswamy would jump back in the race. Sam-

Jonathan Martin: Or Don Jr., Or JD Vance, or whoever.

Brian Lehrer: By the way, do you take it as another sign of Trump's wannabe authoritarianism that he's trying to get his sister, is it? Who's Lara Trump, I should know this.

Jonathan Martin: His daughter-in-law.

Brian Lehrer: His daughter-in-law. Right. I knew she wasn't his daughter. His daughter-in-law to be the co-chair of the National Republican Party.

Jonathan Martin: There was some talk that she would run for the Senate in North Carolina a couple of years ago. That didn't come through. She's been eager to get involved in politics at some level. Apparently, the nepotism bylaws at the RNC are not that robust, Brian, it turns out. This is what Trump is. He's not a traditional American political figure. It's much more like other countries where the family takes over the party or the government. His son-in-law was the de facto Secretary of State when he was president. Now, his daughter-in-law wants to be Co-Chair of the party. That's just how they roll. It's not uncommon in other countries. We just really haven't seen it here to this degree in this country.

You could say the Kennedys. Bobby Kennedy was obviously the JFK's AG. That's probably the closest thing that we've seen in this country. That's obviously 60+ years ago now, and it's a different breed of cat. There is pushback to the Lara Trump thing. I still think it'll happen, but she's obviously there as somebody who is going to be the voice for the family. If push comes to shove, and then it needs to use RNC money to pay Trump's legal bills, she's going to be the voice in the room saying, "We got to do it."

Brian Lehrer: If you look back at that Kennedy example, I know that comes up. We're going to talk about RFK Jr. in a few minutes, but talking about RFK Sr., I think it's fair to say that President John Kennedy was looking to do some things for the country that he thought his brother would be very well-qualified and well suited to do, and they were on a mission to do good as they saw it. Trump appointing his-- He doesn't get to a point her, but Trump trying to get his daughter-in-law installed as Party Chair seems like just a pure consolidation of power. He's always talking about loyalty.

Jonathan Martin: I think it's more akin to the Latin America, your [unintelligible 00:22:07] play of taking over a party or taking over a government and consolidating power. You could at least say that Bobby Kennedy was more qualified to be AG, still nepotistic. Still, that wouldn't happen in this day and age in a more traditional political party now. I think the Trump effort with Jared Kushner as a developer turned de facto foreign minister and his daughter-in-law, who was a producer for Inside Edition and a trainer becoming Co-Chair of a national party, I think it's fair to say it's much more like a different country.

Brian Lehrer: On this Monday, after the South Carolina primary, Sam in Kew Gardens, originally from South Carolina, you're on WNYC with Jonathan Martin from Politico. Hi, Sam.

Sam: Morning, Brian and Jonathan. Hi.

Brian Lehrer: Hi.

Jonathan Martin: Hi. How are you?

Sam: I'm okay. I had opinions about Nikki Haley, and I had perspectives if you're interested in them-

Brian Lehrer: Please.

Sam: -that I could offer because I happened to be visiting my hometown the weekend after the 2016 election attending-

Jonathan Martin: What's your hometown?

Sam: Spartanburg. It's in northwest South Carolina.

Jonathan Martin: I know where it is, in the upstate. Sure, of course.

Sam: I was attending the church that I was brought up in, a predominantly Black church. The attitude there was woe is me. How awful is this? How awful. I turned on the predominantly white church that's on television, and it was a very celebratory mood and how wonderful that this has happened. I have a brother who's the deacon in a predominantly white church. It's maybe a small version of a mega church. I think he probably voted the way that most people in his predominantly white congregation voted.

I spoke with my sister on election day, and I jokingly said to her, I asked her did she make Donald Trump happy today. She says, "Actually," I was holding my breath when she told me that she had indeed voted for Donald Trump. This is the sister who's been a member of this predominantly African American church for essentially her whole life. She and my oldest brother are often in conversation with him doing wellness checks on her since she lives alone. I think he convinced her that voting for Trump was the vote in favor of the unborn, and so she actually did vote for Trump for that reason.

Brian Lehrer: Thank you. Jonathan, interesting perspective, even though it's from the earlier election.

Jonathan Martin: Look, there's a significant amount of voters in this country who are single-issue voters on both sides of the abortion issue. Certainly, in the conservative white church, that is a signal issue. Trump appointed the three justices who overturned legal abortion in America, which I think by far is his most consequential policy accomplishment.

Ironically, it's the one that he wants to talk about the least because for personal and political reasons, he's not really all that thrilled about the issue, but that's the great irony of our times, that Donald Trump became the warrior for culturally conservative Americans and gave them a landmark victory that he now won't talk about as he tries to reframe a second win, which is all to say that God has a sense of humor, Brian.

Brian Lehrer: God has a sense of humor. Yes, she does. When we continue in a minute with Jonathan Martin from Politico, we will turn the page from looking back to Saturday's Republican primary to looking ahead to tomorrow's for both parties. We'll get much more on the Joe Biden track here when we continue in a minute. Stay with us.

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Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer on WNYC with Jonathan Martin, Politico's senior political columnist and co-author of the book, This Will Not Pass: Trump, Biden, and The Battle for America's Future. Let's start talking about Joe Biden and then about Biden in Michigan tomorrow. You wrote a Politico article called Get Used to It: Biden Isn't Going Anywhere. Who thinks he might be?

Jonathan Martin: Civilian voters in America. The gap between the everyday voter and news consumer and the political insider in the Democratic Party, whether it's an elected official, a staffer, or a donor is just canyon size when it comes to Biden. It's remarkable how many people think the party can just snap its fingers and dump Biden and replace him with candidate X.

That's a Netflix movie, Brian. That's Hollywood. That doesn't happen in modern American politics. Parties want to convey stability and order, and especially Democrats these days, which have become so much more orderly, and top-down, and hierarchical. They make the House of Windsor look chaotic. It's just incredible. The reason for that is because the party is so petrified by Trump, it has made them a spit-and-polish party.

No, they're not going to dump the sitting president in the middle of the election year because that they believe would only help Joe Biden. For those who say, "Well, no, there's going to be a convention. They'll get rid of him." Tell me what the forcing mechanism is. Tell me how Joe Biden decides to step down. Because if nobody's going to make him, then he's not going to do it. The only way you could make him do it is public pressure. If you can't find me, Brian, one Democratic governor or member of Congress who is willing to say that Biden should step down, then there's not going to be any public pressure. There's just not.

Brian Lehrer: We had Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on the show last week after we had a political science professor who wrote an article in The Atlantic. Maybe you saw it. That political science professor, very anti-Trump and saying, "Hey, Dems, get real. Biden is not your best option. He might actually lose to Trump. We've really got to find somebody else, and there's a deep bench of governors and other people."

Jonathan Martin: Sure.

Brian Lehrer: We had callers and texters all over the map on that. Democrats were so divided between a lot of people who thought, "Yes, we should really do this," and a lot of people who thought that that's completely nuts. Then, AOC came on, and we know she represents a part of the party that is among the most skeptical of Joe Biden's policies, and she was absolutely rock solid behind him staying in.

Jonathan Martin: Yes, that's a great illustration, Brian, is that folks from the Academy or from my business can write and speculate all they want about Biden's prospects and why the party should dump him, but the party isn't there. By the party, I mean the elected officials in the party, Biden's inner circle, and if they're not willing to exert public pressure on Biden, then Biden's going to run again because guess what? Joe Biden likes being president. He thinks he's good at it, and he wants to be president for four and a half more years.

I just think that this is all such fantasy talk, and it's so out of whack with the modern Democratic Party, which is a do-no-harm, play-it-safe party. That's why Joe Biden was the nominee in 2020 in the first place, and I think people forget what the party has become. They don't take risk. They don't cotton to insurgents. They want to keep Trump out of power, and they're not going to do anything to imperil that.

Brian Lehrer: However, there is a rising call for change on at least one issue in the Democratic Party. Tomorrow's primary is in Michigan. Biden has no real opposition, but the war in Gaza, as I don't have to tell you, as the meaningfully large Arab American population, they're so alienated. Here's a clip from NPR's Weekend Edition Saturday last month of Michigan resident Khaled Turaani from a group that has formed called Abandon Biden.

Khaled Turaani: We will fight Joe Biden, we will make sure that we'll punish Joe Biden by making him a one-term president. If Trump becomes president, I'm sure America will survive Trump just like it survived him the first time, it'll survive Trump once again.

Brian Lehrer: How widespread is the Abandon Biden sentiment in Michigan, as far as you could tell, and is there going to be any way to gauge it in tomorrow's primary?

Jonathan Martin: Yes, I think we'll be able to tell by how many folks don't vote for Joe Biden and either vote for an alternative or write in something. Here's an actually interesting test is who will do better in Michigan? Nikki Haley with her pre-Trump, the Old Guard coalition, or the non-Biden vote? I think that'll tell us something about which of the two quasi-incumbents faces the bigger challenge with their coalition, Brian, in Michigan.

Brian Lehrer: You said write-in, I was wondering if a write-in campaign would emerge. Not that people thought that Biden would actually lose the Michigan primary, but as a unifying name in a protest vote, but I haven't seen it. Is there any such thing?

Jonathan Martin: Yes, but it's not writing in a name. It's writing in uncommitted.

Brian Lehrer: Uncommitted. That's something to watch for tomorrow night.

Jonathan Martin: That's what's to watch for. How many Democratic primary votes does Joe Biden not get because they either go to somebody else or just writing in something? That's exactly right. I think that's what's going to be so telling. Look, I think, Brian, eventually, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Biden would have the advantage in a head-to-head race because American voters would be reminded of why they ejected Trump four years ago because Trump just doesn't wear well.

I think Biden's biggest challenge, I wrote this a couple weeks ago, is not Trump. It's the threat of a third or a fourth party running. The reason why Biden won in '20 and Hillary didn't in '16 was because Biden effectively had a head-to-head race against Trump four years ago in a way that Hillary Clinton didn't in 2016, and Biden's coalition is so tenuous because it extends between far left and really center right, that any damage, any sort of loosening of that coalition from either extreme could upset the entire thing. Yes, if Biden loses 10,000 votes in Ann Arbor and 10,000 more in Dearborn to third-party candidates, that's devastating to his math.

Brian Lehrer: On this track. Sue, in Hunterdon County in Jersey, you're on WNYC. Hi, Sue. Thank you for calling in.

Sue: Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my call. I'm a Palestinian American. I guess I don't call myself either a Democrat or Republican. I normally just go by who's running and are they good for America, sort of thing. I never would vote for Trump. I haven't. Unfortunately, I cannot with good conscious vote for Biden unless he makes a significant change in his stance with respect to Israel and Gaza War. I love what they're doing in Michigan, and I hope that that becomes [inaudible 00:34:35] other states could follow.

Brian Lehrer: Sue, thank you very much. Further to that, I think. Adam in Bay Ridge in Brooklyn but votes in Michigan. Adam, you're on WNYC. Thank you for calling in.

Adam: Hi, can you hear me?

Brian Lehrer: I can hear you.

Adam: How's it going? Thanks for having me on. I tried to call in a few weeks ago on this issue, but I didn't get on the air, and I'm actually really pleased that the media is finally covering the situation in Michigan. I'm a lifelong Michigan resident. Obviously, I live in Bay Ridge now for school, but I'm still registered to vote in Michigan. I used to live in Hamtramck, which is a little town inside of Detroit, which is majority Yemeni and Bengali.

I can tell you that the situation in the Detroit area is not looking good for the Biden campaign. Most of the people I know are voting uncommitted in tomorrow's primary. I voted uncommitted myself, and this is not a fringe campaign. It's endorsed by Rashida Tlaib, Abe Aiyash who's in the State House, and I think it's sending a message to the Democrats that they could lose in November. I think it's important to stress that Wayne County has a higher number of Arab Americans than New York City.

You simply can't win the state of Michigan without winning Wayne County, which is the most populous county by a large margin. I'm really pleased that the media is finally paying attention to this because I feel like a lot of good-hearted people are saying to themselves, "I can't vote for this guy who is funding a plausible genocide according to the UN High Court, even if the alternative is Trump." This is a serious matter, and it shows that Gaza is a serious problem for the Democrats. Thank you.

Brian Lehrer: How do you think you as a Michigan voter would vote in November, assuming it's Biden-Trump, and assuming Biden doesn't make a big turn on this issue?

Adam: It's horrible because no one wants Trump, but at the same time, as a morally conscious person, if Biden doesn't change course on Palestine, it would be very difficult to vote for him. There's 30,000 people who have been slaughtered now by Israel, and Biden has the power to end that, and I think that it would just be really difficult to vote for Biden.

Brian Lehrer: Adam, thank you very much for your call. He's talking about Michigan. Michigan, obviously, in play tomorrow. Michigan, which went by such a slim margin in 2020, is just about necessary for either candidate to win the primary, but it's not just Michigan. I saw a Siena poll of New York State Democrats, which found opinions on the war have changed dramatically from October, even in New York. At first, 57% supported more military aid to Israel. Now, it's about tied around 45% to 45%.

Jonathan Martin: The Democratic coalition is changing on this issue, but this is why Hamas did the slaughter on October 7th. They knew Bibi would overreact because he's trying to retain his power, and his whole calling card was security. Now, he'd have to act tough to retain his political standing, and they'd go into Gaza and do this, and it's all playing out, I think as Hamas grotesquely planned what they're killing that precipitated this.

It's two things. First of all, to that caller, Brian, of the idea that he said twice the media's finally covering this. I got news for you. There's been more coverage about Biden's challenge in Michigan in the last two months. If he hadn't seen it until recently, he wasn't looking very hard. It's been covered extensively in the last couple of months.

Second of all, he's right. This is an existential challenge for Joe Biden, and it's not just Michigan. If you look at any of the competitive states, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, this is a problem for Biden with voters under 40, the far-left elements of the Democratic Party especially. I think Biden is shifting some on this issue and trying to be a little bit tougher on Bibi, at least in private and taking some steps in public. It's just not who Biden is.

Biden is, to his core, a pro-Israel guy, not a Bibi fan. I wrote in my column a couple weeks ago that he's called Bibi a bad [inaudible 00:39:22] guy in private, pardon my French, but that's the exact quote. Biden doesn't love Bibi, but Biden does feel a kinship to Israel that he has for his entire career in politics that I think younger democrats don't fully appreciate, and that's what's driving a lot of this.

Brian Lehrer: For those of you who just heard a little gap in your audio, Jonathan just said a word that you can say on Netflix, but you can't say on the radio, so that's why a little gap, but I think you've got the gist. By the way, if people are looking for an alternative third-party candidate in November to Joe Biden because of this issue, RFK Jr. is not that person. I've been reading where he is saying staunchly pro-Israel things basically trying to portray himself as the most pro-Israel candidate west of Tel Aviv. That's something to know about RFK Jr. now, right?

Jonathan Martin: Yes, it's a good point, I should have said bad f-ing guy. Sorry about that to the delicate ears of your listeners.

Brian Lehrer: It's not my listeners, by the way, it's the FCC, our overlords in Washington. Go ahead.

Jonathan Martin: The delicate ears of the FCC, there we go. No, look, I think the point I was making is that Biden, in his DNA, is a pro-Israel guy, has been for half a century, even if he's not a big fan of the current prime minister over there. It's an important point on RFK Jr. He's actually had internal dissension over this issue. He's much more of a pro-Israel guy than his coalition, at least right now, may realize, which is why, Brian, I think it's really interesting to see, will Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate get on the ballot in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania because she is much more pro-Palestinian. I think that's where a lot of these younger voters and pro-Palestinian voters could go part in ways with Stein, not RFK.

Brian Lehrer: Cornel West?

Jonathan Martin: It's tougher for him to get on the ballot, Brian, because he's not going to have a party line. Stein is trying to use the Green Party line, whereas West doesn't have a party line.

Brian Lehrer: By the way, Aaron Bushnell, for people who haven't heard that name, active duty member of the United States Air Force, set himself on fire over the weekend outside the Israeli embassy in DC, he died. Remember, that's how the Arab Spring started, a Tunisian vendor, merchant set himself on fire and of course, there was a lot ready to explode in that part of the world, but that was the spark.

I'm not saying this is going to be the same thing, but when else have you heard of anybody self-immolating, not to mention an active duty member of the United States military, to protest the US government's position on the war in Gaza? I don't know if you think that starts anything larger in a political sense that comes back to Joe Biden.

Jonathan Martin: I think we're going to see immense pressure on Biden to move away from the the pro-Israeli line and take a harder public tack against Bibi in the next months to come in. The fantasy Netflix talk about Biden being dumped, is it largely a waste of time? I think what is more consequential is the internal pressure on Biden to move away from Israel because that is something that is actually in play, Brian. I think that will shape this race for precisely the reasons you're talking about.

There is real upheaval among younger and progressive voters about Biden's stance on this war. You're right, absent the Vietnam War, where you had a draft of young American men being sent to war, it's hard to recall something as galvanizing for younger voters in modern times as what's happening in recent months with regard to this conflict in the Middle East. Biden is going to be under huge pressure to address it in the next six to eight months.

Brian Lehrer: Well, we will see what happens in the next 24 to 48 hours in the Michigan primary tomorrow, both on the Democratic and the Republican side. For today, we thank Jonathan Martin, Senior Political Columnist for Politico and author of the book, This Will Not Pass: Trump, Biden, and the Battle for America's Future. Jonathan, we really appreciate it.

Jonathan Martin: Hey, Brian, thanks for having me on. I'm going to go wash my mouth out with soap right now. Sorry about that.

Brian Lehrer: 15 lashes, self-administered. All right, thanks a lot, Jonathan. Brian Lehrer on WNYC, much more to come.

 

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