Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer on WNYC. All right, just a few more texts on the state of the city because there are so many and they're so good and I can't resist. Listener writes, "Regarding the administrative burden on police, nobody's debating the administrative burden placed on nurses and doctors by the medical legal framework."

Listener writes, "I would say the state of the city is compassion. This call-in shows how compassionate New Yorkers are." One last one, "The state of New York City is changing, always changing. Some will be happy with those changes and others will not. That is a constant." All right, now we turn the page.

Now we'll look at the high-stakes special election taking place to replace George Santos in Congress in which voting is already underway. If you have a mail-in ballot, the in-person voting begins next Saturday, February 3rd.

The District in Queens and Nassau County is very swingy; Democratic for a long time, Republican recently, Biden for President, Santos for Congress. We've been discussing the race in the local context since the candidates were chosen. Today, we'll look at it more in the national election year context of how it might be a bellwether for what crucial suburban swing district voters care about nationwide as the parties compete to not just win the presidency, but also control of Congress.

The candidates are Democrat, Tom Suozzi, who held the seat before Santos, and a Republican relative newcomer, Mazi Pilip, who is a member of the Nassau County Legislature. My guest for this is Abby Livingston, who writes about political campaigns in Congress for the politics and business site Puck News.

We'll also talk about the presidential race a little bit with the aftershocks just starting to be felt from Trump's New Hampshire win, but Nikki Haley's defiance surprisingly in Trump's face, staying in the race speech. We'll even touch on the political implications of Jon Stewart's big announcement yesterday that he's returning to The Daily Show for this year's election cycle. Abby, thanks for coming on with us. Welcome to WNYC.

Abby Livingston: Thanks so much for having me.

Brian Lehrer: You wrote that "in national politics terms, the race to replace Santos is a gift from the gods, a dry run for both parties on abortion, immigration, and candidate quality in a pure tossup district." How much are they looking to see literally whether abortion rights, good for the Democrats, or immigration, good for the Republicans, moves people to the polls more?

Abby Livingston: That is the absolute obsession of this race and what the Democratic and Republican operatives, all they want to talk about this contest. The reason is because, as you stated, this is such a toss-up district.

I think the thing to look at it is this is a very important seat in Congress just at a base level because Republicans have such a tight, tight majority and the new speaker, Mike Johnson, needs some breathing room. I think beyond the actual outcome of this race, this is like a Petri dish of testing, messaging and television ad campaigning or advertising in the get-out-the-vote effort.

The central question of this race is Republicans have had a big, big problem with abortion since Roe versus Wade was overturned. Democrats just keep outperforming expectations and wherever they compete on this issue, but Republicans say, and we will find out if they're correct, that they think immigration could be what is the magic key to offset these, the Democratic advantages on abortion.

Brian Lehrer: Yes, and certainly the exit polls from New Hampshire on Tuesday seem to show that immigration, at least in that Republican primary in a relatively moderate state, so maybe it's an indicator of something, immigration was a big motivator.

When they asked what people's number one issue was, 37% said the economy, that was number one, but then 30% said immigration. Next, much further down was foreign policy at 15%, and only then came abortion with only 12% citing it as their top issue, so much less than the 30% that cited immigration.

I'm curious how much you think the strategists in the New York race or nationally in congressional races find that important from New Hampshire or might change any tactics as a result of just that?

Abby Livingston: I think it's harder to use that and just because abortion is just funny. At least in a lot of the polling I've seen, it doesn't register very high. That is why it over-performs in expectations. It's in the back of the mind of a lot of voters, it seems. They may not articulate it in a exit poll or a telephone poll. I think it's still something political strategists are trying to figure out.

What is so interesting about abortion this cycle is I spent a long time covering Texas politics and we're about to go into primary season in Texas. If you turn on the television in about two weeks, all you're going to see are anti-immigration ads in the Republican primary. That is the number one issue House Republicans, and Senate too, have run on in their own primaries.

We haven't seen immigration surface in the general election. It's been, over the years, Donald Trump. It's been healthcare since Roe v. Wade overturned. It's been abortion. This is probably the first cycle where we're really seeing this come into the foreground and the general election as we're seeing in this special general right now.

Brian Lehrer: Right. In fact, immigration, as you know, has broken out as the main topic of the ad wars, commercial wars, between the two recently, I'll play one of each. On this issue, it's the Republican Pilip on the attack and Suozzi on defense. Here's a Pilip ad that makes its argument against Tom Suozzi.

Speaker 1: Tom Suozzi rolled out the red carpet for illegal immigrants.

Tom Suozzi: I kicked ICE out of Nassau County.

Speaker 1: Suozzi helped create our immigration crisis.

Tom Suozzi: I kicked ICE out of Nassau County.

Speaker 1: And he'll make it worse. Congressional Leadership Fund is responsible for the content of this advertising.

Brian Lehrer: That's a tagline, the various versions of that ad is using "and he'll make it worse." Here's a Suozzi ad that he released in response.

Speaker 3: You've been hearing a lot of nonsense blaming Tom Suozzi for the migrant problem. Really? As the Left pushes to abolish ICE, here now is one of the few Democrats who voted to support this vital agency.

Tom Suozzi: ICE is an important government agency. They have an important job to do in this country securing our border. I support strong border security.

Speaker 4: Tom Suozzi will work with both parties to close illegal immigration routes, but open paths to citizenship for those who follow the rules.

Tom Suozzi: Anything else you might hear, just garbage. I'm Tom Suozzi and I approve this message.

Brian Lehrer: Abby, we have a soundbite in the first ad from sometime in Suozzi's past. I'm not sure exactly when, maybe when he was Nassau County executive probably not wanting ICE detaining undocumented immigrants who committed minor crimes locally. That was, "I kicked ice out of Nassau County." Then a Suozzi soundbite that he emphasizes in his ad, we see in the visuals on that ad that he was on Fox News as a guest saying that, separating himself from other Democrats. I guess we'll only know on election night who won that argument but can you fact-check that at all any more than I was able to find, like the context for the Suozzi quote that Pilip uses of him saying he kicked ice out of Nassau County?

Abby Livingston: I actually, offhand, I do not have the context, but what I can say as a semi-retired or retired TV producer, when it's that sharp of an edit, my ears perk up. That means it's being pulled out. I will also just flag, that ad was a Congressional Leadership Fund ad, which is the super PAC involved in this race on the Republican side. It's aligned with House Republican leadership.

That PAC is the X factor right now in the advertising wars because they have not spent as much money as they are capable of spending. The House Democrats and their allies in the super Pac world have come in very big, very hard, very early in this race.

I don't have a direct answer, but what I can also say is that the Democratic optimism in this race is so much about this conversation we're having, which is, we've been talking about Suozzi. He is a known quantity in this area. He used to serve in this congressional seat. I think there's a very strong sense in the Democratic world that Long Island is starting to slip away from the Democratic Party. It's becoming an increasingly difficult place to run campaigns when it, not that long ago was completely Democratic-represented outside of Peter King's District.

This is going to be very much about Suozzi. Mazi Pilip is an unknown figure. She's having to go 0 to 60 very quickly in this race. She's going to have to establish her name identification in a very expensive media market. Suozzi, specifically, is the source of Democratic confidence in this race.

Brian Lehrer: Now that we played a Pilip ad attacking Suozzi, we're going to play a Suozzi ad attacking Pilip. In the context of what you were just saying about her being a relative newcomer, here is part of how Suozzi is trying to define her to the electorate.

Speaker 6: Mazi Pilip won't answer questions about her agenda.

Speaker 7: Mazi left before taking any questions. She was whisked away.

Speaker 6: Pilip is part of the extreme wing of the Republican Party that wants to take away your rights and benefits. They ban abortion even in New York, even in cases of rape or incest, and make massive cuts to social security. Banning abortion, cutting social security with an agenda that extreme, it's no wonder Mazi Pilip is hiding. DCCC is responsible for the content of this advertising.

Brian Lehrer: That ad mentioned a few things. One was abortion, also social security, and also Pilip not answering questions from reporters, which we'll actually get to. On abortion, here is Mazi Pilip in a local Fox 5 interview answering a question about her position on abortion rights.

Mazi Pilip: I'm religious, okay. Therefore, I am pro-life. However, and I want to emphasize that however, here, I'm not going to force my own beliefs in any woman. It's not going to happen. Therefore, I'm not going to support a national abortion ban.

Brian Lehrer: Abby, do you know the basis of the Suozzi claim? There are many restrictive Republican bills short of an outright ban that I can't find her taking a position on one way or another, but she did say in that clip that she wouldn't impose her personal views on other women. What do we know about the factuality of Suozzi's claim that she would restrict abortion rights?

Abby Livingston: Well, that is the problem when a candidate doesn't answer questions. What she is going through right now is what every single vulnerable House Republican candidate or incumbent is going to go through in the next seven, eight, or I guess nine months. They are going to be asked this question every time they turn around. She is dodging the question, and that's what makes this so difficult.

These quick quotes can be clipped down. They can be used in the same way we heard in the anti-Suozzi ad. I worked many years ago for Tim Russert. His entire mentality of this sort of thing is when a candidate doesn't actually answer questions, they can't make the hard decisions. I think this is part of the process of becoming a better candidate. Democrats are absolutely running wild with the allegations that she can't handle these sorts of questions. This is going to be the ultimate test case. This is why this race is so interesting, is how she's struggling here

Brian Lehrer: We continue to look at the Suozzi-Pilip race in both national as well as local context with Abby Livingston, who writes for the news site, Puck, covering Congress and campaigns. Listeners, we can take a few phone calls in here. I want you to get through some of the material that we did, including the ads before we open the phones. We can take a few questions and comments on this special election. Voting by mail already underway. Early voting in person, February 3rd through 11th. Election day itself, Tuesday, February 13th.

Is anyone listening right now an undecided voter who lives in the district? We would love to hear about the deliberations inside your head. 212-433-WNYC. Was anybody listening now a Biden voter in 2020, but a Republican Santos voter before you knew what a fraud he was in 2022? There were a bunch of you. That's part of what makes this district interesting. Biden won there and the Republican for Congress won there, or anyone else. First priority if you're in the district, 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692.

As I invite undecided voters, Abby, and I don't know if we'll get any, I'm curious generally if you think that there are any undecided voters left in America right now. I guess the question, the way some people frame it, is are there any swing voters really, or are there really only swing districts where the bottom line is how effectively each party turns out their base? Do you ever take on that either for this district or for the swing districts nationally this year?

Abby Livingston: I think every year, there are fewer and fewer. There are still some who exist. I think it was trending this way already but with the entrance of Donald Trump into the American political scene, obviously, things are just a thousand times more polarized than before. When you started that question, that was what I was going to say, that this is increasingly a situation of getting out the vote.

The surprises in the elections that we've seen over the last few years when we expect them to go one way or the other at every level is almost always rooted in a surprise turnout and vote on one side or the other, or a surprise depression and vote. We are moving farther and farther away from persuasion versus getting the loyal faithful out to the polls.

Brian Lehrer: Here is a Pilip voter, I think. A voter, Peter in Greatneck, you're on WNYC. Peter, thank you for calling in.

Peter: Thank you for taking my call, Brian. I voted for the Democrat in 2022. This is somebody who I actually knew for many, many years. He was an upstanding person, exactly the type of moral fiber that you wanted in politics. [crosstalk] That was Bob Zimmerman.

Brian Lehrer: That was Robert Zimmerman, who lost to George Santos.

Peter: Right. Both of those candidates at the time had never held elective office. I think that was appealing to a lot of people that both of them hadn't held elective office. Now we have two people that are running and one is a career politician, Tom Suozzi, and the others are fresh-faced. I think I'm an independent voter. I have switched for Republican to vote Republican and Democrat. Personally, I think that if I had my way, I would vote for Biden for the presidency, and I would vote for the Republican candidate so that Biden doesn't have a rubber stamp in Congress. You want to know what independents sound like? That's me.

Brian Lehrer: For people who might be confused by that- and I appreciate you calling in and saying all of that- and think, well, if you want Biden for president, but you want a Congress who's not going to let any his of his policies go through, what are you really for?

Peter: I think that a divided government tends to tackle only the big subjects. It hasn't worked out recently, but nonetheless, it's prevented from doing any huge government programs, which are quite honestly the type of programs that Biden has pushed through with a Democrat congress, which I'm not in favor of, but I also can't vote for Trump. What am I for? I'm for a government that only tackles the big questions and compromise is forced on both parties to move forward if they're going to move forward on anything.

Brian Lehrer: Peter, thank you very much. Keep calling us. Abby, what kind of media, since we played those ads, and I know Puck covers media a lot, so much interesting reporting on Puck about the decline of cable and linear television in general. What kind of media do you think matters most right now? What's the distribution mix or what kind of emphasis in this home stretch, if you've been following that?

Abby Livingston: There's the media of doing local interviews. This has been very local with outreach from the campaigns. Then there's the advertising side. New York is just, on so many levels, the most interesting place in American politics when it comes to control of the United States House [00:18:57]. New York has not always been in that place because the lines have tended to be pretty clean and districts are pretty safe on each side.

What New York does more than any other television market in America is just completely warp the ad spending. It is so expensive to run television advertising in New York. I think, at points, it can be a million dollars a week if you want to go all the way in. Because broadcast is so expensive, campaigns more and more are moving toward cable, moving toward digital. New York is often a place where direct mail is an emphasis.

Even as broadcast television has declined, it is still the primo place to advertise, particularly during sporting events like the NFL. On top of that, we don't have new fresh campaign finance reports yet, but it's very apparent Tom Suozzi has raised more money than Mazi Pilip because he's spending on television advertising. There's a little quirk in the law that candidates can secure lower television rates than Super PACs. The fact that Suozzi was able to get into this race a little earlier than Pilip and raise money has been an enormous advantage for Democrats.

Brian Lehrer: Jonathan in Brooklyn, who grew up in the district, that's northeast Queens and the north shore of Nassau County and a few other places in Nassau, Jonathan, you're on WNYC. Hello.

Jonathan: Hi. I live in Brooklyn, but I grew up in that district, and my mother still lives in that district. I definitely feel a connection to it. I was thinking when they chose Mazi Pilip to run. She's this virtual unknown outsider. The fact that she has an interesting biography, she was from Ethiopia and she immigrated to Israel, she served in the IDF. Now, with the Israel-Gaza war going on, and that district, as you know, is heavily Jewish. It has a lot of wealthy Jewish people and Iranian Jews there who are probably more inclined to vote for someone who is very pro-Israel, which not to say that Suozzi isn't, but the fact that she is an Israeli who serves in the IDF.

I was just wondering if the idea was to try to pander to those voters and think that they could pick up a lot of votes just from the pro-Israel vote.

Brian Lehrer: Jonathan, thank you for that question. Yes, Suozzi is making a big point of saying there's no difference between them on policy toward Israel, but he certainly can't compete with her biography, Abby, in that respect. By the same token, we have a text message here that says, "I suspect they're having Pilip not speak much so that the anti-immigrant Republicans don't hear her thick accent, her Ethiopian accent." There's demographics from both sides. Abby, what do you think?

Abby Livingston: This issue has exploded in Congress, and particularly in the Democratic Party. This is the de facto first down-ballet primary race, even though it's a special. The other primaries don't get started until early March. This is one of the number one things I'm watching for when we see the results. We just don't know how this is going to play.

With regard to Pilip's biography and background, she is exactly the candidate that now-ousted House Speaker Kevin McCarthy would recruit to run. He was on his way out when she was coming through. This biography is something very interesting and intriguing to Republicans, who have historically struggled with diversity in their party. The caller recited it out for me. All of those things are completely accurate.

What I also think is in the background of this race that we haven't talked about is the local parties had a lot of control over these nominations. There really wasn't an open primary process. I think more than anything that local and national Republicans cared about with regard to their nominee was getting away from George Santos and all of that baggage. My understanding was they put an absolute premium on resumes that did not have any embellishments whatsoever, that having a candidate who didn't have that problem was the ultimate emphasis of this process.

Brian Lehrer: Another demographic piece is that Suozzi is Italian-American in a district that's got a lot of Italians, just as it got a lot of Jews. He's trying to make an issue out of the Republicans calling him the godfather of the border crisis. Suozzi says godfather is an anti-Italian slur, playing on that anti-Italian stereotype.

I'm just curious if you have any impression as to whether that's gaining traction among Italians in the district to think, "Yes, they can't go around calling an Italian-American candidate a godfather in 2024. I'm going to defend against that and vote for Suozzi."

Abby Livingston: Clearly, it's a sensitive issue. I am so excited about this race because of these issues. These are fights that are going to-- I was on the phone yesterday with a Democrat who is from New Jersey, and they're watching this very closely. New Jersey has very similar demographics and different divides along ethnic lines.

What makes this race so interesting is that you can layer it over in other districts in America. On top of that, just the New York City market, the control of the United States House is going to go through the New York City Metropolitan area. The lessons learned on Long Island will apply out of New Jersey, as I mentioned, but could also apply to the Hudson Valley or other regions in the New York greater area. This is just an embarrassment of riches of things to learn after the fact.

Brian Lehrer: A lot of swing districts in the New York suburbs. All right, we have three minutes left. We're going to do two quickies on other things. Nikki Haley, Post New Hampshire, and Jon Stewart, returning to The Daily Show. On the Haley campaign, Abby, I used to think she was really running for 2028, raising her profile but not taking on Trump and alienating the party space. After she came down much harder on Trump's mental competency and electability in her election night speech Tuesday night, I feel like she's actually willing to burn those bridges in pursuit of actually trying to win this year, or maybe it's something else. Do you have a quick take?

Abby Livingston: My quick take is, I was on the same page as you. What I can say going forward is this is going to be a very long South Carolina primary, and South Carolina has a history of really rough, nasty Republican primaries. The question is, does she come out of this like John McCain, more empowered in 2000, or a weakened candidate? That is to be determined.

Brian Lehrer: Jon Stewart, I wonder how you see the political, not just the entertainment context, of his announcement that he will return to hosting The Daily Show once a week, Monday nights, through at least election day this year. Is he trying to have an impact on some groups in particular, or shouldn't I look at a comedian, even Jon Stewart, in that way?

Abby Livingston: I think Jon Stewart is always trying to have an impact, and he does have impact. What struck me about it was I was the core college kid watching him at his peak, and he hasn't been on the air for a long time, and TV doesn't work the same way anymore as it used to. My instinct was he's going to help get out the youth vote, but he hasn't been on TV in a solid nine years. We will see.

Brian Lehrer: How does television work different than it worked nine years ago?

Abby Livingston: The kids aren't watching television. They're watching TikTok. He may not have the same cultural impact on the 22-year-olds that he has on the 40-year-olds.

Brian Lehrer: Right. I guess it'll matter if people grab good Jon Stewart moments and spread them on social, and we will see.

Abby Livingston: Exactly.

Brian Lehrer: We will see. Abby Livingston covers campaigns in Congress for Park News. Abby, thank you so much.

Abby Livingston: Thanks so much for having me.