[music]

Kathy Hochul: Yes, the glass ceiling, like the one that's above us here today has finally been shattered in the state of New York, and you made it happen.

Brian Lehrer: Governor Kathy Hochul. Now the first woman elected governor of New York after the AP and other voter counters projected her victory over Lee Zeldin. It's the Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC. Good morning, everyone. As our election returns, coverage continues here on WNYC. Some other headlines in brief before we start discussing them. Control of Congress remains undecided, both in the House and the Senate as we have it. All four ballot measures in New York succeeded.

The Environmental Bond Act statewide, and the three racial justice ones in the city. Abortion rights, one in two, closely watched referendums in Michigan and very notably in Kentucky, a southern pretty evangelical state. Some local congressional results, Tom Suozzi, old-house seat flipped to Republican. The districts are a little different in a lot of these, but it's still the seat that Suozzi holds now Democrat in the third congressional district, George Santos is the Republican winner in that Queens and Long Island district.

Nicole Malliotakis retained her Republican seat on Staten Island and in Brooklyn, the only other Republican to represent part of the city. Some others that are close last I looked, we may get an update from Jon Campbell, our first guest were Gillen versus D'Esposito in the seat. Kathleen Rice is leaving in Nassau County. That may flip to red. Sean Patrick Maloney losing to Republican Mike Lawler in Rockland and on up, but I'm not seeing a final. It's close. Democrat, Pat Ryan and Republican Colin Schmitt, a little further up into the Hudson Valley that's close.

Marc Molinaro versus Josh Riley, also in the Hudson Valley. By the way, it's not just Democrats losing seats, one interesting result. Lauren Boebert, you know that name, the Marjorie Taylor Greene of the West from Colorado has lost her seat. There are other democratic pickups too. Also, Dr. Oz lost, if you haven't heard, J.D. Vance won.

Democrat, Maggie Hassan held her seat in New Hampshire, her Senate seat, against election denier Don Bolduc. Herschel Walker versus Raphael Warnock, too close to call in Georgia. It's all generally being seen as a pretty bad night for Donald Trump, by the way. We'll talk about that later in the show. We'll talk first though about New York before we go national. With us first is WNYC and Gothamist Albany reporter Jon Campbell. Hi, John. Thanks for extending your election night assignment all the way to ten o'clock in the morning here. Welcome back to the show.

Jon Campbell: Hey, no problem. Thank you for having me.

Brian Lehrer: Listeners, your questions and reactions to any result from New York to begin the show. 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-969, clue 92, including what do you think the lessons are for each party in New York from these results? 212-433-WNYC or tweet @BrianLehrer. Jon, how much did Hochul win by and where did she perform well or Zeldin not quite hit his target?

Jon Campbell: It's looking like Governor Hochul is going to win by about a five-and-a-half-point margin. It's roughly 300,000 votes, which is really a small margin for a Democratic candidate in New York. That is a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans two to one. It's looking like a 53 to 47 or 48 race, and that's quite tight. She won with 70% of the vote in New York City, and that was really close to the margin that Lee Zeldin was hoping to hit.

He was hoping to get 30% to 35% of that vote in New York City to give him a chance. Statewide, he cleaned up on Long Island. He won Suffolk County by 17 points. He won Nassau County by 11 points but it wasn't enough to overcome that New York City margin, especially when Hochul picked up Erie County, her home county upstate. She was able to win by about 30,000 votes there. She also picked up Westchester County, another Democratic county that Republicans were hoping maybe they could keep it close there, but it wasn't meant to be. Hochul won by more than 10 points there.

Brian Lehrer: You wrote on Gothamist that the feeling at Hochul headquarters last night was one of relief as much as celebration, I guess, the numbers you just laid out tell us why. Did they not think it would be this close?

Jon Campbell: I don't think they did until this recent [unintelligible 00:05:08] of polls came out. There were polls in mid-October through late October that really showed this race within single digits. That was polls from Sienna College, from Marist College, from Quinnipiac, from Republican pollsters, from Democratic pollsters.

It showed a tightening race, and that really did show up in the results. In the end, does it really matter much? She just has to win the popular vote, and that's what she did last night. The AP called the race about 1:00 AM, NBC News had called the race more than an hour before that but she won. She gets another four years. We should note she makes history. She is the first woman ever elected governor in the state of New York.

Brian Lehrer: Let me go down that list of ones that I last saw as too close to call for Congress in New York districts and you tell me if you know anything more than I said in the intro. Gillen versus D'Esposito in the Nassau County seat, the Democratic Kathleen Rice is leaving. Is that flipping to red? Do we know?

Jon Campbell: As of now, Anthony D'Esposito, the Republican candidate has a slim lead. I got to admit, I'm not sure if there's been any concession or victory declaration, but that is a seat on Nassau County's South Shore. It clearly benefited from Lee Zeldin's big night on Long Island. Four seats on Long Island and they're all either going red or looking like they may go red, and that, obviously, there was some down ballot effect from Lee Zeldin having such a big night on Long Island.

Brian Lehrer: Sean Patrick Maloney bigwig in the Democratic Party. He was the head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which means he was supposed to be the guy setting the tone to lead Democrats to victory for Congress all over the country. Last I saw he was losing to Republican Mike Lawler in Rockland and on up but I'm not seeing a final on that, do you know?

Jon Campbell: Well, the latest on that is Mike Lawler, the state assemblyman, the Republican who challenged Sean Patrick Maloney. He is holding a news conference later today. He's going to declare victory. There has not been a concession from Sean Patrick Maloney. He's losing by about 3000 votes in a race where nearly 300,000 votes were cast. It's very, very tight but another thing to remember here is for the first time this year in New York, absentee ballots were counted largely before polls closed.

There are far fewer paper ballots out there to count. Really, the only ones left to count are affidavit ballots that are cast on election day, as well as absentee ballots that were postmarked by Tuesday, but they trickle in after election day. There isn't a lot of paper to be counted there. You're going to see Mike Lawler declare victory later today but Sean Patrick Maloney has not conceded yet.

Brian Lehrer: Speaking of, not conceded yet, as of last night, Lee Zeldin had not conceded yet, even after the AP called the race and victory was declared by Kathy Hochul and she gave a victory speech and everything. Has he conceded yet?

Jon Campbell: Not to my knowledge, no. By the time I sat down here, he had not conceded the race. I mean, last night he went out on stage after Hochul declared victory, which was after NBC News called the race around 11:00 or so. That struck people as perhaps an early call in part because Suffolk County, Lee Zeldin's Home County was very slow to return results. That's apparently, according to Newsday, some of that there was a website hack a while back and they're still having issues with their website.

It's a whole thing but Suffolk County hadn't reported any results. Zeldin didn't concede at the time in part because of that, because there hadn't been votes counted in Suffolk County, but he still hasn't conceded now. The AP did call the race around 1:00 AM, there has been no concession since then. That's something that we're really going to be watching in a time where Republicans have raised issues about the big lie and all sorts of different issues with voter integrity and things of that nature. Will he make some sort of case? I'm not sure. He's down by 300,000 votes.

Brian Lehrer: Of course, he was one of those Republican members of Congress on January 6th, 2021 who did not vote to certify the presidential election. Here's a few seconds of Zeldin speaking last night.

[start of audio playback]

Lee Zeldin: Going to see the race continue to get closer and closer and closer and closer. This includes, by the way, on Long Island. You're going to see a massive Victory coming out of Long Island, which will also be closing the gap.

[end of audio playback]

Brian Lehrer: Again, as you said, Jon, that was after NBC called the race for Hochul, but the AP, which is usually considered the definitive one, had not. That AP call came an hour or two later. That statement by Zeldin stands as far as we know at the moment because as you're telling us, he hasn't conceded yet. Could you tell us any more about that hack you refer to of voting machines in Suffolk County? Now, Suffolk County, as you also told us, is a place where Zeldin is from and where Zeldin won big, so presumably, there wasn't any mischievous hack that flipped anything from red to blue. What do we know about that?

Jon Campbell: I want to be really clear that it wasn't a hack of voting machines, it was a hack of Suffolk County's website months ago, apparently. I'm citing this to Robert Brodsky. He's a longtime reporter with Newsday. He was tweeting about this last night. He said Suffolk had its website cyber hacked months ago, and it's still not up and running. They had to outsource some of the reporting to the states, and that led to some major delays in reporting the results.

We do have the results now. It showed Zeldin with a huge win on Suffolk County and on Long Island, in particular, and he was able to cut into Kathy Hochul's margin, make it a single digit race statewide, but it wasn't enough. There's too many voters in New York City, and Hochul did a little better than expected in some areas upstate.

Brian Lehrer: Continuing on those undecided congressional races in New York. Democrat Pat Ryan and Republican Colin Schmitt in the Hudson Valley and a little above the Hudson Valley, that was close. Last I saw also Republican Marc Molinaro versus Democrat Josh Riley also in the Hudson Valley. Both of those still too close to call as far as you know?

Jon Campbell: Molinaro is declaring victory. Marc Molinaro is the Dutchess County executive. He was the 2018 Republican candidate for governor. He lost to Andrew Cuomo. He also ran for a special election for Congress in August. That was a mess. He lost that, but now he's winning a full-term against Josh Riley. He has declared victory. Josh Riley, to my knowledge, has not conceded yet, but that's a district that stretches the whole way from the Hudson Valley out to Binghamton.

It's looking like Marc Molinaro is going to win that. Pat Ryan, who won that special election against Molinaro, there's a big redistricting mess in the middle of that, he appeared to have held on over Colin Schmitt. I'm not totally sure if there was a concession in that race, but it's looking like that's going to be good for Pat Ryan and Democrats.

Brian Lehrer: I guess we should say this was not a good day for Democrats representing New York State in Congress. If the Kathleen Rice seat in Nassau County is going to flip. It's trending that way. I know it's too close to call. If Sean Patrick Maloney loses his seat as that it's trending that way. If Molinaro wins. That was a Democratic district before it was redistricted.

Jon Campbell: George Santos over Robert Zimmerman and Tom Suozzi's old seat.

Brian Lehrer: Big one.

Jon Campbell: That's a big one.

Brian Lehrer: It's a wipeout for Democrats in swing districts just about, no?

Jon Campbell: Yes. That was the GOP's biggest victory of the night, was in Congress. Right now New York has 27 congressional districts. It's 19 to eight Democrat to Republican. If everything holds, and that's a big if, it could be up to 15 to 11 Democrat to GOP. That is three to four-seat pickup there. We lost a seat in redistricting, so we only have 26 now. That's considerable and in a time where the control of the House was on the ballot. There are still races we're counting. It's looking like Republicans will take control of the House, but Democrats may keep control of the Senate, though there are still races to be counted.

It was a good night for the GOP in terms of New York congressional races. Part of that is Lee Zeldin outperforming expectations, and part of it was this redistricting mess where Democrats tried to draw the lines. They gerrymandered them to their favor. Courts up and down New York's judicial system threw those lines out, brought in an independent map maker to make more competitive districts and that proved to be true. Obviously, these were competitive districts.

Brian Lehrer: I have to correct one thing that I said in the intro. I had seen one reference to Lauren Boebert in Colorado, who I call the Marjorie Taylor Greene of the West, losing her seat. Apparently, she is losing, but it's still really close and that race has not officially been called. Let me retract that. We will see what happens to Lauren Boebert in Colorado as we continue to talk about the election results from New York with WNYC Albany correspondent Jon Campbell.

Listeners, we'll get to your calls in just a second as we get through a few more results here. 212-433-WNYC with any questions or comments about the results in New York in particular, for now, then we'll go national, coming up in a little while. 212-433-9692 or tweet @BrianLehrer. Hochul will be the governor. Will there still be a veto-proof super majority in both houses of the state legislature?

Jon Campbell: It's going to be close. It really is. We'll start in the state senate. There's 63 seats in the Senate. Democrats had control of 43. They're claiming victory in at least 40 seats. They would need one more to get that veto-proof 2/3 majority. The assembly, it's looking like Democrats will hold on to at least 100 of the 150 seats. That would be enough for the veto-proof majority, but there's still a handful of races that are outstanding. In both houses, it's looking like Republicans will pick up at least one seat maybe two in the senate, maybe five, six in the assembly, which is a bigger chamber.

It wasn't a Republican wave in the state legislature. I spoke to somebody last night. They called it a red dribble or red ripple, I should say. Democrats will probably hold on to the veto-proof majority in the assembly. It'll be closer in the senate. That'll come down to these last couple of races, but really, it's symbolic anyway because, with a Democratic governor and the Democratic legislature, the legislature never overturns the veto anyway. It is a symbol of Democratic strength.

Brian Lehrer: Not a red wave, but a red ripple. I saw that phrase in a New York Times analysis of the national results. That reporter will be on with us in a few minutes, by the way. I don't think they make red ripple wine anymore. That was a Gallo product that I think went by the wayside, but we can talk about it in political terms. A red ripple, not a red wave. Claire in Astoria, you're on WNYC with Jon Campbell and all the listeners. Hi, Claire.

Claire: Hi. Thank you so much for taking my call, and thank you for your show. I've been listening a lot over the last few days, and I really appreciated how you were framing things as being for or against, and what are we voting for, what are we voting against. Today, as I'm looking at the map of where people voted for Zeldin, and where people voted for Hochul, I'm glad she won.

I'm a proud Hochul voter, but I'm still really angry because what I heard over the last few days is that people are swayed to the Republican side because of narratives around crime. Looking at this map and hearing what people have said on your show, it's men who don't think that Roe v. Wade is a big issue, it's people who live in the suburbs, it's people who don't live in the city or who do live in the city and work at home.

As a 35-year-old woman, I'm a teacher, I'm a musician, I'm on the subway four times a day, and I find that offensive. We've always had to be vigilant as women, and people are voting Republican because of a narrative about crime. They don't even live here. It infuriates me, and I really, really appreciate that you have had people who have pushed back against the narrative that crime is so much worse than it used to be. I really appreciate that.

Brian Lehrer: Thank you, Claire. Thank you very much. I've got a gender breakdown here, Jon, nationally. I don't have it for New York. I don't know if you do, but chances are it would be about the same. According to the network exit polls, 42% of men voted for Democrats nationwide, 53% of women voted for Democrats nationwide. That's a pretty sizable gender gap.

Jon Campbell: Yes. We saw in the public polling that there was a very stark gender gap between the people supporting Lee Zeldin and the people supporting Kathy Hochul. Men were backing Lee Zeldin in bigger numbers and women were backing Kathy Hochul in bigger numbers. There are any number of reasons for that. Kathy Hochul based much of her campaign on abortion rights and women's rights in the wake of the Supreme Court decision, overturning Roe v. Wade, and Lee Zeldin based his campaign on exactly what the caller said there, crime and fear of crime.

That was his entire campaign for the entirety of his 19 months in the race and they resonated with the different genders differently. That being said, I'm sure there is an element of sexism as well. Kathy Hochul is the first elected woman governor in New York State. She was the first woman governor when she succeeded Andrew Cuomo and we know that there is inherent sexism in the electorate when it comes to things like that. I'm sure that element was at play as well.

Brian Lehrer: Jeffrey in Great Neck, you're on WNYC. Hi, Jeffrey.

Jeffrey: Hi, Brian. I just want to say one of the things that I've noticed last two elections out here in Nassau County is the bail reform law. The Republicans have used that to bash the local Democrats. We saw almost a complete wipeout last fall and I can't help, but think that this election with the two congressional districts here in Nassau County, that the crime was a big issue, and using the bail reform law, which I believe inaccurately to bash the Democrats was a big factor in it.

Brian Lehrer: Yes, apparently so. Jon, let's talk about that. First to refresh people's memories about last year, the Democratic County Executive of Nassau County was thrown out of office. Also, the the DAs in both Nassau and Suffolk, if I'm remembering correctly, they both flit from blue to red last year. That was certainly a bellwether of what was to come this year and as the caller says, we saw it in the congressional races, we saw it in how Lee Zeldin did on Long Island.

I think the caller's point is, whether it's a misperception or not of the true impact of the bail reform law. It's been used very effectively as a hammer by the Republicans. I guess my question to you is, do you expect Kathy Hochul to do anything different with that now that the election season is over?

Jon Campbell: We'll find out in January. That's when she lays out her agenda and her state of the state address. That's when the state legislature comes back to Albany. There's going to be pressure even from some Democrats to make some changes, I think. That's because Republicans were able to wield it as a weapon in this race. It was a major issue in all of those Nassau County races that you referenced there specifically this cashless bail system in New York which was passed in 2019. It eliminated Cash Bail for most misdemeanor and non-felony charges pre-trial. This is while somebody's awaiting trial on those charges.

It has been used by Republicans as an explanation for an increase in crime, even though data about re-arrest rates show that there isn't really a clear connection there at all. It's been very potent for Republicans. I talked to some people last night. Shontell Smith is one person I talked to. She's the former Chief of staff for Senate Democrats.

Now she's a Democratic Consultant and she said, "Democrats have to find a better way to get their message out on crime because Republicans are going to keep wielding this issue against Democrats and until they can better explain what they're doing, why they're doing it and why they are or are not taking any action on these reforms, they're they're going to get hurt." They need to better their messaging. That's the message from Democratic Political Experts.

Brian Lehrer: We'll continue in a minute with our Albany reporter, Jon Campbell, looking at the results from New York in the election. Then we'll pivot to national results with the number of guests who we're going to have. We'll keep taking your calls on New York for now. 212-433-WYNC or a tweet @BrianLehrer. Stay with us.

[music]

Nicole Malliotakis: That's what this race was always about, about stopping the disastrous policies that we've seen under one-party rule at the state level and at the federal level and getting this country back on track.

Brian Lehrer: Nicole Malliotakis still representing Staten Island and part of Brooklyn. That district was changed during the year in the once-a-decade redistricting to make it a little easier for her to hold her seat, but she did hold her seat. Nicole Malliotakis, still a New York City Republican, and Tom Kean Jr. Son of the former Republican governor of New Jersey, won his swing district seat in New Jersey against Tom Malinowski, the Democratic incumbent. Here's a little bit of Kean.

Tom Kean: To listen, to learn, and earned this responsibility that you earned me with to steer this nation towards greater prosperity, greater security, and greater affordability. Thank you

[applause]

Brian Lehrer: Tom Kean Jr. And victory Tom Malinowski in defeat

[applause]

Tom Malinowski: They want more infrastructure that not more insurrections. They want moderation not mega. They want a government not a circus.

Brian Lehrer: That district too was changed very much this year, which made it much more difficult for Tom Malinowski to retain his seat, even as it made it a lot easier. All the redistricting in New Jersey for other Democrats and even other Republicans in the state to retain their seats.

Some of you may have heard are Nancy Solomon, who covers New Jersey on Morning Edition today, talking about how they sacrificed Malinowski to make it safer for everyone else. They didn't totally sacrifice him because that race was considered a toss-up through the election season, but Kean won. We now have a Republican in that district in New Jersey.

As we continue to talk mostly about the New York results with our Albany reporter, Jon Campbell. Jon, your headline on Gothamist today is Kathy Hochul wins in New York, but Progressives Hope Democrats learned a lesson. Who's hoping the party learned what from the left?

Jon Campbell: One of the people I talked to last night was the Working Family Party state director searching named Mecca. Her whole thing is that it took too long for Democrats to pivot to their on-the-ground, get-out-the-vote operation. Much of Kathy Hochul's early general election campaign was focused on television ads.

She raised more than $48 million and funded millions and millions of dollars of television ads that sought to define her and sought to define her opponent. Sochie of the Working Families Party, she said that's well and good. That does reach a certain amount of the electorate, that does reach a certain voter, but you have to expand the tent. You have to reach immigrants, new voters. You have to in reach young people and the way to do that isn't television ads.

There was some frustration from progressives on the left that it took these polls in mid-October to kick everything to gear and really get the ground operation rolling. There was a lot of frustration from what they call triple prime voters. People who are democratic and vote in every election. They reported not receiving a lot of outreach, mail, calls, knocks on their doors.

That is something that people were frustrated with the Hochul campaign and the Democratic Party. They're hoping that that sends a message, that you have to energize your base. That's something that Republicans did very well this cycle, Lee Zeldin did pretty well this cycle and that's why we saw the closest margin of victory for a New York governor, a Republican, I should say. The Republicans performed better than at any point since George Pataki

Brian Lehrer: Although it sounds like there were almost conflicting lessons for the Democrats to learn at the gubernatorial level, because what we were hearing before a little bit was, hey, they've really got to take crime more seriously. That's what propelled Republicans to as many victories as they had yesterday and to making this race for governor as close as it was. At the same time, progressive saying, "Hey, you have to pay more attention to your base," which would mean more progressive policies.

Jon Campbell: Yes, and that gets to the push and pull in the Democratic party. That's been the issue in the Democratic party for a while now, is you have the centrist pulling the party one way and you have the Progressives pulling the party, the other, and that really gets at the push and pull there. It's something that the Democratic Party has to reckon with.

Brian Lehrer: Mary Ellen in Westchester is calling in saying she was canvassing for Robert Zimmerman, the Democratic congressional candidate in Northeast Queens and the North shore of Long Island who was running for the Tom Suozzi seat but lost to a Republican. By way of background, that and Mary Ellen, hi. Thanks for calling.

Mary Ellen: Hi, Brian. Thank you for taking my call. I met Robert Zimmerman after the first redistricting when we had that interesting crescent-shaped slice of five county district. At that point, I would've been in his district, and I met him and I really liked him. I didn't expect to like him. I really liked him. Then when they redistricted, I ended up back in CD 16, but I have deep roots in Queens and Long Island.

I was canvassing for him actually in the Little Neck where it's right next to Bayside over the weekend. I was absolutely stunned and really heartbroken to hear how incredibly effective the Republican crime narrative had been. Basically, it's the Willie Horton of 2022 horrendously effective is very hard to nuance things.

If you just keep saying, "Oh, everybody's getting killed." One particular couple that I and the woman who I was canvassing with that we spoke to, they were an older couple, quite fragile. They did answer the door, they spoke with us, and they said they were clearly so frightened. They said, "Oh, we've always voted Democrat, but we won't vote Democrats this time because of crime."

Brian Lehrer: Did they

[crosstalk]

Mary Ellen: Many other people.

Brian Lehrer: Yes. Go ahead. Sorry.

Mary Ellen: Many other people that we spoke with, they weren't really focusing on it. They were definitely scared. In fact, as we were speaking to them, they said to us twice, "Oh, be careful." They were clearly so concerned for our safety. [unintelligible 00:32:37] we had just turned the clocks back, but it was still

[crosstalk]

Brian Lehrer: Let me ask you one follow-up question. Were they concerned for their own safety because Little Neck is a pretty low-crime neighborhood? Or were they concerned more in the abstract and that drove their vote?

Mary Ellen: I don't know, but I think, clearly, they were concerned for us because as we were leaving, they said, "Be careful." I think they're just overwhelmed with the thought that crime is rampant, and I think it was more of an emotional response. Also, the people don't connect the fact because bail reform was used so inappropriately, but effectively by Republicans.

Again, it requires a lot of nuance. It also requires knowledge that bail reform was a New York state issue. It wasn't a federal issue. Of course, Robert Zimmerman was running for Congress, but people don't think about that.

Brian Lehrer: That's a really good point, Mary Ellen, thank you very much. That story about that couple in Little Neck might be more evidence of what the caller from Astoria was talking about earlier which is that, at least to some degree, not to discount safety concerns at a time of many kinds of crime or higher than they've been in recent years, though not nearly as high as they were in more past years.

That maybe the people most concerned with the safe with safety are the ones who don't actually get out much. I don't know. To wrap that up, Jon, how did Zeldin do, let me put it that way, in his effort to attract more Black and Latino residents from the city on the theory that their fear of crime in the higher crime neighborhoods would sway a meaningful number of votes as well.

Jon Campbell: Well, what we do know is that he performed better in New York City than his immediate Republican predecessors. Andrew Cuomo, in each of his three races, he got at least 77% of the vote in New York City. That was born of just huge margins of victory in Brooklyn and Queens where there are many Black and brown voters. Andrew Cuomo was very popular with Black and brown voters.

That was something that showed up in public polling throughout his time in office. It stands to reason that Lee Zeldin may have made some inroads in those communities. That said, Kathy Hochul still won 70 to 30. That's a big margin of victory. It's not [unintelligible 00:35:26] so to speak, but it was enough to, to propel her to a statewide win. Is it something Republicans can build on? That's something to be seen in the coming years here.

Brian Lehrer: WNYC and Gothamist Albany reporter John Campbell. You don't even sound like somebody who was up all night. Great job last night. Great job this morning. Thank you for coming on.

Jon Campbell: I appreciate that. I can assure you, I was up all night.

Brian Lehrer: We will turn the page and go national and talk about election results right after this. Brian Laer on WNYC.

 

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