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Brian Lehrer: It's The Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC. Good morning, everyone. So much has happened in the election, in New York, New Jersey and nationally. We'll focus on New Jersey and Long Island for our first two conversations today. In New Jersey, it seems like Governor Murphy eked it out. The AP called the race last night, probably heard that, but the Republican Jack Ciattarelli isn't conceding until more actual votes are counted. Politico New York this morning looks ahead to next year's New York gubernatorial race, not the primary that we know is coming between Letitia James, Jumaane Williams, Kathy Hochul, and maybe others.

The possibility that a Republican could be the next governor of New York, they write, take a look at Nassau County where Anne Donnelly became the first Republican to win the district attorney's race since 2001. In the past nine gubernatorial elections, the candidate who won bellwether Nassau won the state as a whole, that from Politico New York, so yikes if you think Republicans won't govern in your interest.

What just happened? Was it part of a historic pattern where the year after a presidential election, the new president's party takes a hit therefore no big deal and no big bellwether, or did we see democratic failure and overreach on the issues of right now, crime and criminal justice reform, vaccine mandates, internal gridlock on the physical and human infrastructure bills? Did they alienate too many white suburban swing voters, fail to do enough for the hurting essential workers of color or some combination? What kind of course correction could help save Congress for them for next year?

With me now, Brigid Callahan Harrison, professor of Political Science and Law at Montclair State University. Professor Harrison has been coming on the show with New Jersey political analysis for years. Last year, some of you will remember, she ran for office herself in the democratic primary for Congress in South Jersey, but lost to Amy Kennedy. Professor Harrison, sorry you didn't make it in that race, but great to have you back in the analyst's chair. Welcome back to WNYC.

Brigid Callahan Harrison: Thanks, Brian. After that experience last year, I know what a lot of these political leaders are going through firsthand. I've added to my analyst knowledge here.

Brian Lehrer: Maybe you can take us into yesterday's results, through your experience running for office down in Atlantic County, where again, especially for our Northern New Jersey and other listeners context, Congressman Jeff Van Drew actually switched parties from Democrat to Republican down there a few years ago to meet his constituents where he thought they were headed. The Washington Post columnist, Henry Olsen, notes today that in this election, Murphy carried three counties, I should say, sorry, for context for this election, Murphy carried three counties, your Atlantic County plus Gloucester and Cumberland by an average of 13 points in 2017.

He won by that much four years ago. He lost those counties this week by an average of 11 points. Olsen argues that's not just a defeat for the Democrats, that's a repudiation of who they are right now. Through the lens of your experience running in Atlantic County, how do you see it?

Brigid Callahan Harrison: I think that it is a repudiation. I agree that in particular, the message of progressivism does not resonate in those areas of the state. If we look at an outcomes map of the state of New Jersey, we think of New Jersey as being a really blue state, we have two US senators who are Democrats, Democrats by far control the congressional delegation, both houses of the state legislature, the governorship. The idea is that this is a deep blue state, but when you actually look at the state, we look a lot like the United States of America.

Our urban areas are incredibly deeply blue, and that is of course where population is centered. Then there are large swathes across the bottom of the state where I am and across the top of the state that are not just pink, but deep, deep red. Sometimes sure, does the Democrats manage to win those areas? Absolutely. We're not even purple. We are a microcosm of the United States in New Jersey.

Brian Lehrer: Red and blue patches. New Jersey listeners, what just happened? 212-433 WNYC, help us report this story. If you were a Biden, Ciattarelli voter, Democrat last year, Republican this year, call us up and tell us why, help us report this story, 212-433 WNYC. If you were a Biden voter, but then stayed home this week, call us up and tell us why. Help us report this story or anyone else in New Jersey. What just happened here? 212-433 WNYC, 212-433-9692 for Brigid Callahan Harrison from Montclair State.

Professor Harrison, the wings of the democratic party are arguing over what the results in New Jersey and Virginia mean. The left says nothing much to see here, Virginia and New Jersey governor's races since they come right after the presidential election, always see the party out of power do well. They say Murphy might have actually lost, had Bernie Sanders not come to campaign for him. The democratic right says, "Stop being so socialist in your economics and allowing crime with too much justice reform and scaring the white suburbs back to the Republicans right after they rejected Trump." How much do you buy either line?

Brigid Callahan Harrison: I think if you look at the map, the latter argument holds a bit more water. When you see areas that have voted light blue in the past, areas like you mentioned Atlantic County, when they switch over to red, it isn't because the Democratic Party isn't progressive enough for them. In my view, what we've seen is, six months ago, everyone in the state of New Jersey gave Governor Murphy almost universally high marks for his handling of the pandemic. As long as that was the top issue on voters' minds, he could win reelection handily, but over the past several weeks, we've seen a deeper infinite emphasis on the economy.

People are talking about inflation, unemployment, taxes, economic issues have now overridden COVID as the most important issue of many New Jerseyans. When you asked voters, who do you think is better equipped to handle the economy? It wasn't Phil Murphy. It was Jack Ciattarelli. In my mind, those suburban voters who are-- they may be quite socially liberal, they may buy into all of the progressive ideas when it comes to cultural issues, but they're also people that are raising families and facing the very real economic hardships of many Americans. They look at the economy and perhaps perceive even president Biden's two recovery plans as not having much for them in it.

In many ways, I think it's a failure of the Biden administration to tell the average suburban voter what's in it for them, because I don't think that that message has resonated.

Brian Lehrer: Why don't you think the Build Back Better or reconciliation bill, the human infrastructure bill, whatever you want to call it, which hasn't passed yet, doesn't resonate with more middle-class, working class voters as having things in it for them? They're talking about paid family leave, they're talking about childcare, they're talking about elder care. Why aren't those things broadly populous, never mind popular?

Brigid Callahan Harrison: I think that part of it stems from the fact, if we're talking about New Jersey in particular, which is what I'm talking about, I'm trying to think about and explain these results, is that New Jerseyans look to the federal government with a bit of a jaundiced eye that they shouldn't be looking at because we are one of those top donor states. For every dollar we send to Washington DC, depending on the year, we get about 86, 87 cents back. New Jerseyans who are working increasingly hard, being increasingly productive, perceive that they're paying for more than they're getting, and so, expensive government programs mean expensive taxes in their minds, and they approach that quite wearily.

Brian Lehrer: Let's take a phone call. Donald in Jersey City, you're on WNYC. Hi, Donald.

Donald: Oh, hello, Brian. I'm a registered GOP, but I haven't been able to vote that way ever since Trump. I voted for the democratic governor candidate. One of my main reasons to do that was that Ciattarelli was threatening to take money away from urban school districts. That strikes me as both draconian silliness and Trumpism too.

Brian Lehrer: Thank you very much. That was certainly an issue in the race. Professor Harrison, you want to comment on that?

Brigid Callahan Harrison: I think that Donald represents a really interesting voter and he is, in fact, it appears to be rather unique, at least from the relatively small sample of Republicans that I've talked to in the past, I don't know, six hours. Many average New Jersey Republicans repudiated president Trump, and really have not been able to come back into the fold. They thought Jack Ciattarelli might be the guy, he had a reputation for being a moderate member of the assembly. Then all of a sudden he tracks right and starts using rhetoric that is quite Trumpian.

They alleged things like Mexicans are bringing the Coronavirus up to Turnpike. Just really going to the Trump base. In my mind, I thought that there would be more people like Donald, who would vote for the democratic candidate because they didn't buy into that, but it looks like a lot of Republicans held their nose and voted for Ciattarelli anyway, despite that Trump rhetoric

Brian Lehrer: Let's take another phone call. Here is Rox-- oh, she hung up. Well, let me ask you another question before we go to another caller. We were talking about voters who may have voted for Biden, and then Ciattarelli. Another way to look at it though, as you know, is through the lens of turnout. Maybe the Republican voters, being out of power, were motivated, but the Democrats didn't do enough to motivate their base. That would argue for more attention to progressive social and economic policies that make low income voters, voters of color and white progressives feel served rather than taken for granted.

Maybe it wasn't so much about swing voters changing parties, it was about Democrats simply not inspiring their voters as much as the Republicans inspired theirs in a world in which there really aren't that many swing voters. How much do you agree with that theory?

Brigid Callahan Harrison: When you look at Essex County for example, in 2017, Governor Murphy walked out of Essex County, one of New Jersey's most populous counties, with about 12,000 more vote plurality than he did on Tuesday.

Brian Lehrer: That's city of Newark for people who don't know New Jersey, Essex County, that City of Newark, the big City of Newark plus a lot of suburbs.

Brigid Callahan Harrison: Exactly. Throughout those urban counties when we're looking at [unintelligible 00:12:50] union Camden. He has incredibly large margins. Some as high as 68% to 30% or there about. The number of voters is tamp down a bit, 10,000 here or 5,000 there. Those votes obviously add up.

Brian Lehrer: Race as an issue. The Republican in Virginia won partly on appealing to white fragility. They're going to teach our white children things about race that won't be patriotic enough and will make them feel bad about themselves. In New Jersey, Jack Ciattarelli on this show refused to even try to give a definition of white privilege when a caller asked them to do so. Race as a factor, according to yo?

Brigid Callahan Harrison: I think it was a factor in some white voters' minds. It is not something that I've seen any polling data on, but I do think that there is a bit of resistance as it were particularly in many older Americans, older New Jerseyans who are just a little bit suspect of conversations about race and Phil Murphy laid his cards on the table. He had advertisements talking about Black and brown New Jerseyans. For some voters, and I would venture to say that these would be voters that would lean Republican anyway. It's not like he was losing these voters. I think that for some particularly older, particularly more conservative voters, race was at least one factor in informing how they voted.

Brian Lehrer: Let's take another call--

Brigid Callahan Harrison: Or at least the conversation of race.

Brian Lehrer: Chris in Hoboken, you're on WNYC. Hi, Chris.

Chris: Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my call. I just wanted to say, I think that the Democrats had a real messaging problem. I live in Northern New Jersey, drive around, there were tons of Jack signs, there were no Murphy signs. I didn't see a single one. Even my mom who lives in New York State said to me, "Wow, I hear that New Jersey has a really big problem with taxes." I'm like, "Mom, where are you hearing this? Whether it's true or not." She was like, "Well, I saw it on the ads on television."

That was the message that my mom, who's 84, took back from the ads that Ciattarelli was running. Taxes are high in New Jersey. I think that, and all the signage, I think that the Democrats just got complacent on this one

Brian Lehrer: Professor Harrison.

Brigid Callahan Harrison: Well, there's that old saying among political operatives, that lawn signs don't vote. Particularly when you see them on public highways and that kind of thing. I have to tell you, I think that there's something to that, where there's this idea that, "Oh, they're organized, the name recognition increases." You get this bandwagon effect when the name is so prominent and out there. I will tell a story that is similar. I'm talking about this in one of my classes here at Montclair State University, and I started talking about the governor's race and advertising.

The thing that my students had identified is that they had seen so many Ciattarelli ads on YouTube and TikTok and so the digital advertising component was quite large. I do think that the polls indicated such a widely that maybe a bit of complacency did enter into it. There was not a lack of resources, not a lack of money. Perhaps the assumption that this was a slam dunk meant that they didn't go those extra steps that they likely would have had they known how competitive this election would turn out to be

Brian Lehrer: Interesting. Chris, thank you. Louisa in Cherry Hill, you're on WNYC. Hi, Louisa.

Louisa: I moved to New Jersey from Manhattan. I was previously Louisa for Morningside Heights. I moved here over the summer and I wanted to show my support for Phil Murphy because I know they don't vote, but I've been seeing tons of Jack for governor signs in this part of South Jersey that did end up going for Murphy. In any event, I went onto Etsy a few weeks ago, trying to find a tote bag or something for Murphy, and just putting in his name into the search bar, you get page after page of the most profane stuff against him. To me, it is mirroring the thank you Brandon movement. I just have to think that played a role here. I don't--

Brian Lehrer: Can I just translate that for a lot of listeners who don't know what that is yet?

Louisa: Please do.

Brian Lehrer: There's a movement on the right in social media and elsewhere where they can place it to write, thank you Brandon, and what it means to people in the know, it really means FU Biden, right? Thank you Brandon equals FU Biden, right?

Louisa: That's correct.

Brian Lehrer: Luisa, go ahead. It's code and people like spreading that code and getting a laugh out of it on the political right.

Louisa: It's total code, and people excuse it by saying it's hilarious, but it is feeding something. It's feeding something that people are loving. We see bumper stickers that unfortunately don't use the code against Phil Murphy. I won't say that because we're on air, but I was just hoping to ask the professor to what extent might that be playing a role, this galvanizing rallying cry that's very simple to communicate, it's very fun to communicate? Are people looking at that as already having an effect on elections?

Brigid Callahan Harrison: Well, Louisa, my view here is that we have now a solidified core going back to the Trump era of essentially conservative activists who have their own language, they have their own symbols, they have their own forms of media that are quite insular and insulated from mainstream society. The thing that is dangerous about this is, Patrick Murray at the Monmouth University poll is a friend of mine, one of the things that he said in looking back at the polling in this election is that Trump voters would hang up on him. One of the reasons why the polls, not just the Monmouth University poll, but all of the polls were off on this, is because it is a concerted effort by Trump supporters, by this cadre of activist to not participate in the broader social network that we all consider to be part of our responsibility as Americans and so they hang up, and therefore, then their views are not reflected in polls. This is something that dates back to pre-2016, that they're not integrated into the normal mainstream social network and this example of language is just one form of the ways in which they insulate themselves.

Brian Lehrer: Louisa in Cherry Hill, thank you very much for calling in. By the way, a slight connection, Louisa said thank you Brandon is the meme and I repeated that it's really let's go Brandon. When you see it out there, don't look for thank you. It's let's go Brandon, is that meme that still means what I said it means to the people who are using it with respect to Biden, we have a couple of minutes left, Professor Harrison, vaccine mandate as an issue. The polls show it's generally popular above 50%, but I would think that people who oppose it are really motivated. Vaccine mandate as an issue in this race?

Brigid Callahan Harrison: I don't see it as a huge issue in this race, because I think that people who are motivated to vote on that issue, they're not voting for Phil Murphy anyway. They didn't vote for Joe Biden. The issues that were particularly salient here were the issues that switched a voter from Biden to Murphy, or from Murphy to Ciattarelli, and well, vaccine mandates, obviously, are polarizing in some places.

It is a relatively small sector of the New Jersey populace that is motivated to vote against a candidate because they impose mandates, but those voters probably were never Murphy voters to begin with. It may have, Brian, it may have increased their participation because it's a rallying cry, but I don't see this as being the most important thing that determined the outcome of this election.

Brian Lehrer: Yes, and don't forget, Murphy won. So much of the conversation is about the fact that he won by 17 points the first time, Biden won by 16 points last year, I think I have those numbers right, and Murphy eked it out by a hair in this and squandered the margin or just didn't get enough turnout or some version of that may or may not be a bellwether for 2022 congressional elections. What do you think?

Brigid Callahan Harrison: I think it is. I think that not just looking at the Murphy election, but looking at the state legislative elections. One of the most shocking outcomes was what looks to be the loss of the Senate President, Steve Sweeney, who has the longest-standing leadership history in the state of New Jersey, has run in competitive races four years ago, they spent over $10 million in the most expensive race in legislative history and he came out the clear victor, but in this election, he was blindsided, essentially, by a Raymour & Flanigan truck driver who spent exactly $153 on his campaign.

In the legislative district that I live in that was supposed to be competitive, that's the second down by Atlantic City, all three of the Democrats lost and not even close. I think that when we look throughout the state, particularly factoring in the fact that there will be redistricted congressional districts next year, some of these-- [unintelligible 00:24:20] this is going to give fodder to the people who are doing redistricting that New Jersey is not as Blue as people believe it to be and that the district should reflect that, but also, this is a pattern that they need to be aware of going into the House elections next year.

Brian Lehrer: By the way, just so we don't assume, the AP has declared Murphy the winner, and Murphy gave a victory speech last night, but Ciattarelli is not conceding, waiting for a fuller count. Politico New Jersey this morning notes that the AP was premature in calling the Tom Kean, Tom Malinowski congressional race last year, so Ciattarelli not conceding for now is not wild, to use Politico's words.

I guess they're saying this is just waiting for more votes to be counted, this is not some Trump-style fraud, like the big lie that the election was rigged. Fair enough for Ciattarelli and how confident are you in the AP's projection? We're going to have to take that as a rhetorical question because I think we have lost that line, but there you go. Listeners, that's our first conversation about the election this week, we're going to turn to Long Island next, where again, what just happened? A much bigger Republican victory than people anticipated. Stay with us.

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