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Brian Lehrer: It's the Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC. Good morning, everyone. We have Margaret Atwood on today's show. What a rare treat. She's been on before, but what a rare treat. For a twofer, she's got a new book out. She'll be the latest participant in our series on friendships in adulthood. Some of you know Margaret Atwood responded to the article in the Atlantic by Jennifer Senior that inspired our series.

Margaret Atwood coming up in the show. Today, we'll have our latest Life by the Numbers Brian Lehrer Show quiz. We're going to give away chocolate babka today as the prize. That's going to be a New York City infrastructure quiz coming up a little later. Spoiler alert, first question, who uses more electricity, the average New Yorker or the average American? That's coming up.

First, the latest developments in the Ukraine war include a few that we'll talk about right now. Of course, there are so many, but we're going to focus on a few. One is this Washington Post headline, "Russia tells Ukraine to give up all claims to Crimea and the east of its country if it wants assault to end." We'll ask our guest, Robin Wright, could that be the framework for an acceptable deal to end the war, or is it just another atrocity from Putin to even offer it that way?

Also, French president, Macron, is accusing Putin of moral and political cynicism for allowing escape routes. Did you hear about these escape routes? Escape routes out of Ukraine for civilians but only ones that lead into Russia and Russian-controlled Belarus. President Zelenskyy addressed the US Senate in a virtual meeting over the weekend-- We'll touch on that. He said, "The US and NATO aren't doing enough to save Ukraine."

He asked for an oil embargo, no more oil imports from Russia, which is increasingly a topic of debate, though that would have tremendous effects on other people in the world. He asked for the US to help Eastern European countries to give Russian-made warplanes to Ukraine. Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, seemed to say yes to that one on CNN State of the Union yesterday.

Antony Blinken: We are working with Poland as we speak to see if we can backfill anything that they provide to the Ukrainians.

Brian Lehrer: Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, yesterday. With us now, Robin Wright, New Yorker Staff Writer, author of Rock the Casbah, and seven other books on the Middle East.Joint fellow at the US Institute of Peace and the Woodrow Wilson Center. Her latest piece, just out this morning on the New Yorker, is called Why Sanctions Too Often Fail. Robin, we always appreciate your valuable insights on world affairs. Welcome back to WNYC.

Robin Wright: It's always great to be with you, Brian, so thanks.

Brian Lehrer: You frame one of the most central questions now, can the economic sanctions be enough to stop Putin's invasion, or are these escalating military steps that President Zelenskyy is asking for inevitable?

Robin Wright: Well, I think that Putin is not going to back down. I don't believe the offer of ceding Crimea and Eastern Ukraine is all he wants. I don't think the Ukrainians are going to give it up. Remember, they've been fighting a war since 2014. They've lost 14,000 Ukrainians in that fight. The Russians have been helping a secessionist movement in the east. They're the famous Little Green Men who no one's quite sure whether they're Ukrainian and many suspect they are Russians who have been fighting in that war.

Putin has a broader agenda to absorb Ukraine into what had been the framework of the Former Soviet Union. He is not invoking communism, the same bond that had justified or had given cohesion to their unity in the past. This time, he's invoking religion and culture, and ethnicity. He believes that these are two Slavic nations that have historically been one, dating back more than a millennium. He's using that to claim them today. He does not recognize, as he's suggesting now, that Ukraine, it has the right to be a separate state.

Brian Lehrer: I'll bite on the exact title of your article, why do sanctions too often fail?

Robin Wright: The problem with sanctions is that they are so slow. They very rarely efficiently or sufficiently squeeze a government into ending their aggression. Too often, there are carve-outs that allow a country a lifeline. There are always carve-outs for humanitarian goods, medical goods, education material, some of the basic necessities of life. In the case of Russia today, there is, at least so far, a carve-out for its energy exports on which it is most dependent economically.

Last year, Vladimir Putin earned almost $120 billion from his oil and gas exports. That's when the price of gas was below $70. Today, the price of gas is $115. Some experts think it will go as high as $150 a barrel. As long as he has that economic safety valve, he can continue as he is. The problem with the West cutting off access to energy resources is that Europe is so dependent. The United States, somewhere between 3% and 6% of our energy comes from Russia. We can bite the bullet at a cost.

It'll be very hard for the Europeans to quickly find alternatives, set up the infrastructure for the transport. That's much more of a problem. Europe would take a much bigger hit. Now, at the end of the day, if you were not looking at the economics of it, you would say, "It is cheaper to impose those kinds of costs than have to deal with the military costs of Vladimir Putin's aggression because he may not stop at Ukraine."

This is the message of what he's doing has so many layers of whether it's the future of an independent state and the right of sovereignty, has to do with the international rules order, it has to do with the clash between autocracies and democracies. It has repercussions for other big powers that have territorial ambitions, notably China on Taiwan.

There's so much at stake here, but it's also very hard, in democracies where you go through elections, for leaders to say, "Look, people, I know I'm supposed to serve you, but I'm going to have to do something that hurts you in order to do something that, in the long term, is important for the future of your political life."

Brian Lehrer: Those kinds of questions may only be beginning right now. There's also talk now of declaring Putin a war criminal, especially for some of the attacks on civilian areas. Here is Secretary of State, Blinken, on CNN on that. Blinken clip.

Antony Blinken: We've seen very credible reports of deliberate attacks on civilians, which would constitute a war crime. We've seen very credible reports about the use of certain weapons. What we're doing right now is documenting all of this, putting it all together, looking at it, and making sure that as people and the appropriate organizations and institutions investigate whether war crimes have been or are being committed that we can support whatever they're doing.

Brian Lehrer: My guest is Robin Wright who covers world affairs for the New Yorker. Does any of that matter in your opinion to saving Ukrainian lives today, or is it right and righteous anger at Putin? Perhaps, he has committed war crimes, but too theoretical for the moment?

Robin Wright: No, I don't think so. It's, again, something that's not going to happen soon, but it is important as an instrument in establishing an incentive for leaders not to do this in the future. It's very important to hold leaders accountable. The practicism of taking people to The Hague for war crimes is very erratic. It happened with some Serbs. It's happened with some Africans, but this is one that would probably set the biggest example of all. When you look at the Geneva Conventions of 1949, there's a long list of potential actions that constitute war crimes, but there are two that are particularly important. One is willful killing. That, we have seen with the deaths of civilians. We also, because this investigation is going back to 2014, the beginning of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It will take into account the 14,000 who have died along the way.

The second category is extensive destruction that is not generated by military necessity and is carried out illegally and wantingly. That, we have already seen as well. I think when you look at what they're saying out of the International Criminal Court, what other leaders are saying, there is a growing sense that there's already enough to charge Putin with war crimes. Now, does that mean that he's ever going to be exported or captured and actually tried? The chances of that look fairly damn.

It is important to set the precedent. The rule of law really is what this is all about at an international forum, international level. It may be meaningless for today and tomorrow, but when you generate the sense that this man is a war crime as viewed by international institutions, that then puts pressures on other governments not to be the ones to deal with him, not to give him the economic out, because one of the problems with sanctions is that, so far, it's only the west, it's the G7, the most powerful economies, and Australia.

There are still a lot of countries out there who are still trading with Russia, and you have to set up the sense that this man and his country are prior and therefore shouldn't be traded with. The atmospherics, the psychology of the moment is also important, and whether or not he is deemed a war criminal will be important in that kind of sense of what other countries do as well.

Brian Lehrer: Yes, it's good to get that long-range view. I'm asking all our Ukraine-related guests, and let me ask you as we end, how can this war end with justice, but with the least additional bloodshed?

Robin Wright: Well, the best scenario is that Putin recognizes that this is intolerable and not affordable and that he could lose and he compromises. The worst-case scenario is that he continues until he has all of Ukraine and is then a threat to NATO and that he is still in power in Moscow. I don't see any easy way out of this. I desperately hope I'm wrong.

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Brian Lehrer: Robin Wright, New Yorker staff writer, author of Rock the Casbah, and seven others on the Middle East. Joint fellow at the U.S Institute of Peace and the Woodrow Wilson Center. Her newest article just out this morning on the New Yorker site is called Why Sanctions Too Often Fail. Robin, we always appreciate it. Thank you very much.

Robin Wright: Thank you, Brian.

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