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Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer on WNYC. I mentioned at the top of the show before we had the Lieutenant governor candidate, some of the things that people are doing, whether they oppose abortion rights or support abortion rights after the Roe versus Wade decision. For those who support abortion rights, may be heard over the weekend that the lead singer of the rock group Green Day, Billie Joe Armstrong announced that he will renounce his US citizenship over this decision.

Maybe you heard, and we'll talk about this in a segment later in the show. There's a lawsuit filed by a synagogue in Florida claiming the religious Liberty of Jews is being infringed upon by abortion bans because Judaism largely supports abortion rights. Abortion funds have been established that accept donations to help people seeking abortions to travel from states where they're unavailable and abortion rights will now be a bigger issue for advocates of those rights in the midterm elections.

Listeners, did you do anything personally if you feel strongly about this issue one way or another after the ruling on Friday? 212-433, WNYC 212-433-9692 or tweet @BrianLehrer. Joining us now is Susan Page, USA Today's Washington bureau chief to talk about politics after last week's two landmark Supreme court decisions on abortion rights and gun rights, and today's ruling that a public school football coach who publicly prays on the 50-yard line after each game is allowed to do it.

No separation of church and state issue there for the high court. Susan is also the author of the books, Madam Speaker: Nancy Pelosi, and the Lessons of Power published last year, and The Matriarch which has the subtitle, Barbara Bush, and The Making of an American Dynasty published in 2019. She's working on one about TV journalist, Barbara Walters. Susan thanks for coming on. Welcome back to WNYC.

Susan Page: Hey, Brian it's great to be with you again.

Brian Lehrer: Let me actually start with a reference to your Barbara Bush book as an example of how long this abortion rights battle has been going on in a mostly partisan divide. Did you write in the book about her famously supporting abortion rights when her husband, President George H.W. Bush was against them?

Susan Page: Yes, indeed. When I went through her diaries at the Bush library, she gave me permission to go through them. I found a handwritten letter to herself that she wrote before her husband began his first presidential campaign in which she tried to sort out what she thought about abortion rights because she knew she would be asked about it. In this handwritten letter, she concluded that she believed it wasn't the government's business and that if rich woman could have abortions, shouldn't poor women be able to have them as well.

That was a position she took until he got chosen to be Reagan's vice president. She [unintelligible 00:03:17] Reagan's running mate. Then George H. W. Bush switched his position on abortion. She didn't change her position, but she stopped talking about it until he finally left the white house, and then she began to support abortion rights again.

Brian Lehrer: One of the things that people say could come next based on statements by Clarence Thomas is that all these privacy-based rights should be determined. He says they should be determined. We'll see if the court does that not to be in the constitution, contraception rights, gay marriage rights, for example in addition to abortion, from those cases that came before the court in different years, H. W. Bush appointed Thomas, do you know if Barbara Bush ever objected to him?

Susan Page: She defended the appointment to me. One of the interviews I did with her of course that was before we saw these slew of cases that very much bear his imprint. These three cases you mentioned all of them within the last few days, all reflect this emerging very conservative majority on the court, thanks to three appointees by Donald Trump, but it's also thanks to George H.W. Bush's appointment of Clarence Thomas.

Brian Lehrer: This is WNYC FM HD and AM New York, WNJT FM 88.1 Trenton, WNJP 88.5 Sussex, WNJY 89.3 Netcong, and WNJO 90.3 Toms River. We are New York and New Jersey public radio and live streaming@wnyc.org as we approach eleven o'clock with Susan Page. I mentioned earlier in the show that the Washington Post reports Mike Pence plans to lean into trying to get a federal nationwide abortion ban.

As governor of Indiana, he signed a bill that required funeral services for aborted fetuses and that's where he's at on that issue in case all people think of Mike Pence these days is he's the guy who upheld the election results in 2020. Do you see a lot of that sentiment likely to exist in swing districts this year or is that Pence running for president, if that report is true?

Susan Page: Mike Pence is definitely running for president. He has had a very long and consistent position in opposition to abortion. We're going to see a fight in Washington on a nationwide abortion ban. There's no question about it. If the midterm elections are bad for Democrats, and that is what history tells us they will be, you could see a nationwide abortion ban definitely pass the house, conceivably pass the Senate, and it would be the president's veto that would prevent it from coming into existence. That is definitely one of the coming battles that will follow up repercussion or consequence of this Supreme court decision.

Brian Lehrer: I see your paper USA Today did a poll that wound up with a headline that says fewer over Roe versus Wade reversal likely won't rescue Democrats in midterm elections. I'll say though that that poll was done just before the decision, but what questions did you ask and what did you find?

Susan Page: Yes. That's important to know it was after the leak of the decision. We'd had all that ado about the draft decision, but before the final decision came down and so some attitudes may have changed since then, but what we found was we asked people if they supported or opposed overturning Roe v. Wade. If you look at the people who said, "We support upholding Roe v. Wade," by two to one, they said that wasn't the key issue for their vote in the midterms.

Their key issue for their vote in the midterms is going to be the economy. Then we ask the supporters of Roe v. Wade, "Does the Supreme Court decision make you more likely to go and vote?" 70% of them said no. That struck us as showing the potential limits of the immediate political aftermath of this decision.

Now, I think we're going to be debating this Supreme court decision for years and years. It's going to have a big impact, I think on our political landscape. If you're just looking to November, I think it is possible and some Democratic strategists are concerned that it is not the powerful overriding issue that some Democrats hope it would be. People are still really focused on inflation on gas prices, on food prices, on infant formula shortages more than they are on abortion rights.

Brian Lehrer: Could the decision itself change that though? Maybe it was still hypothetical after the Alito draft opinion was leaked before the poll, but now that it actually happened, it's a huge shock even for people who were expecting it. I know just from talking to a lot of people, they're walking around like, "Oh my God, oh my God," especially if they support abortion rights.

They sort of can't believe it happened even though they knew it was going to happen. It makes me think, how might that change democratic turnout? What about in states that have these trigger laws, where the law changes, poof, overnight because of these indications that it galvanizes, I don't know, more of a Beto O'Rourke vote versus Greg Abbott in the Texas governor's race or anything in some of the swing districts for Congress.

Susan Page: Yes. There's definitely going to be an evolution here. We don't know exactly where this is going to go. Do you know what, I think is going to be even more impact than the decision itself? That is the fact that in 18 states, within a month or so, these abortion restrictions will be in place. Women will find it very difficult in some cases impossible to get abortion services in their state.

That's not going to take very long. You mentioned the 13 states with trigger laws. There are more states that have existing anti-abortion laws on the books from before Roe v. Wade never repealed. They could be put back into effect. On the ground impact, the impact in people's lives is not going to be something we're looking at next year or in two years. It's something we're going to be looking at next week.

Brian Lehrer: By the way, I'm seeing some of your poll numbers here. Tell me if I'm seeing this right. It also found that about 30% of Americans don't want to live in states that don't have abortion rights. Is that right?

Susan Page: We asked the question slightly differently. We said, "If a state had banned abortion, would it make that state less desirable for you as a place to live?"

We were surprised by the numbers, as you said, 31% said, "Yes, it makes the state less desirable for me." It's even higher when you look at younger people and highly educated people. We found that 42% of those who are under 26, 18 to 25-year-olds said, "It would make a state less desirable for me. 45% of those with a postgraduate degree said it would make a state less desirable for me.

You think of the impact on a city like Austin or Atlanta or St. Louis that has had some success in drawing younger, highly educated people and want them to move there but they're in states that are very likely to ban abortion or restrict it in a big way. Will that make it harder for Austin to be the trendy city that it has become?

Brian Lehrer: I guess when we have already the governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, urging people from New York to move there because of low taxes and not many COVID restrictions. There aren't many COVID restrictions in New York anymore either, but those kinds of things now, a state like New York can say, "Hey, all you young adults who have some choice about where to live, women of childbearing age, you educated adults or anyone else who has a choice of where to live come on to a state where you can control your reproductive freedom." Maybe that's going to become a sorting mechanism in United States population trends.

Susan Page: Yes, of course, it comes at a time where in the wake of all these-- of the changes in employment that we've seen with the COVID pandemic, where people do feel like they've got more options about where to live, that it is more possible to work remotely. This could be one more factor that-- I'm not sure it changes what states will do, but it's one more consequence. It's one more example of how far-reaching the impact of this decision will be.

Here's another question we ask in this poll. We weren't sure people would answer this question, but they did. The question was, "Do you have a friend or family member who has had an abortion? Do know a friend or family member who has had an abortion?" 58% of Americans said yes. That strikes me as a high number of people to both know someone and also to be willing to tell up pollster that they know someone.

Brian Lehrer: Monica in Commack you're on WNYC. Hi Monica.

Monica: Hello.

Brian Lehrer: Hi Monica. Listen to the phone, not to the radio. You'll hear the delay on the radio. You'll hear us live on the phone. Hi there. Oops. Monica dropped off. All right, well, let's take Leanne in the Bronx. Leanne, you're on WNYC. Hi.

Leanne: Hi, good morning.

Brian Lehrer: What you got for us? Did you want to talk about your response to this decision?

Leanne: Yes. I flew back from out of the country the day Roe was repealed and I woke up the next morning and the very first thing I did was call my OBGYN and schedule a consult for sterilization.

Brian Lehrer: Wow.

Leanne: I'm 25. I don't have kids. I wanted to leave my options open. In case I decided I did [unintelligible 00:13:22] as my primary birth control. My fear is now that Roe has fallen. They were very clear that contraceptives are next, that their plan is to nationally restrict abortion. I'm not confident that if I got pregnant with my IUD and had an ectopic pregnancy that I could have it taken care of. I'm not confident that I would be able to access birth control in the future. I decided to make a choice for myself before someone made it for me.

Brian Lehrer: That's a commitment to never have kids. Right?

Leanne: I did. Yes. It breaks my heart. I'm having a choice taken away from me either way. I don't get to decide. If I wanted to have a child, I do not believe I could safely have it. I do not believe we could have safe pregnancies in this country anymore if the option for abortions are taken away from us.

Brian Lehrer: This must mean that even though you live in the Bronx and abortion rights are safe, at least for the moment and certainly contraception rights in New York state, you don't have confidence that it's going to remain that way for very long. It sounds like.

Leanne: I do not. Things roll downhill so fast. There could be circumstances where I'm out of state and I need medical care. I don't want it to be too late and now my life is on the line.

Brian Lehrer: Leanne, thank you for your call. I'm sure that was not an easy decision. Monica in Commack is back. I don't know what happened to her line before. Hi Monica, now we have you.

Monica: Hello. Sorry about that.

Brian Lehrer: Go ahead. You went to a vigil last night, I see.

Monica: Yes, I went to-- It was a multi-faith vigil to mourn and commit to the future. It was three rabbis there were two Christian leaders there, so we were all-- and we were in Huntington. I don't know if you're familiar with Huntington Long Island, but it's a pretty progressive town. It's actually a little city. It's a very progressive area is the point that I'm making. People were going by, which is the main highway.

There's a high road there, not a highway, but a road there, people going by and somewhere in support, but there were people, it happened. It was shocking the first time. There was some-- a young man because they were all young man because it was loud young man voice yelling F you out the window and putting their middle finger up to the rabbis and to the ministers and to the people standing there.

It happened like four or five times where these male voices screaming out the window F you and one saying about Trump, "Thanks to Trump or something." It was just so it was so frightening. It makes you afraid to go out and protest that one of these people could just take their car and run-- the violence and the hatred. I just couldn't believe it that they would--

Brian Lehrer: Monica that's very--

Monica: I don't know if they had any idea of who they were yelling at the rabbi and the minister. It was dishearting and scary, yes.

Brian Lehrer: It was so very disturbing and thank you for reporting that. Susan, we're just about out of time. Let me ask you this as a closing question, Monica mentioned that it was male voices yelling at this pro-abortion rights vigil. Is there any movement in states that are banning abortion to do what some activists have called for which is pass laws that are just as strict on the biological fathers of these children, who women are going to be forced to carry to term? Child support?

Susan Page: Yes. I haven't heard of any legislative efforts along those lines.

Brian Lehrer: We leave it there. We're Susan Page, Washington bureau chief for the USA Today. Thanks as always, Susan.

Susan Page: Thank you, Brian.

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