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Brian Lehrer: It's The Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC. Good morning everyone. Even though Congress has no Speaker of the House right now, President Biden has sent it a $105 billion aid request that he hopes he has written to be, we might call it irresistible, to four different factions with these four major pieces. Aid to Israel, aid to Ukraine, humanitarian aid, including to Gaza, and more spending on security at the US southern border. For those for whom rubbing China's nose in something might be the cherry on top, there's $7 billion for Taiwan. We'll start there today with NPR national political correspondent, Mara Liasson, who joins us. Mara, thanks for a little time this morning. We always appreciate when you come on. Welcome back to WNYC.

Mara Liasson: Thanks for having me.

Brian Lehrer: Even as we're all focused on the Mid East, a central thing in this bill seems to be attaching Ukraine aid, which leaves Congress divided, to Israel aid, which has close to universal support. Is it too early to have a sense yet if it's being received the way Biden is hoping?

Mara Liasson: I think it is too early, but this legislative strategy is pretty clear. This is old-fashioned legislative log-rolling. There are a lot of people who are against certain pieces of this package, and then they are also four other pieces of this package. There's a lot in this bill, aid to Ukraine, aid to Israel, humanitarian aid for Gaza, aid to Taiwan, money for the US border.

There's a lot of things, and the idea is that if one part of the house doesn't like one thing, they're going to like another and maybe that will make them vote for it. The big danger, of course, is that this will be split up and Republicans in the Senate are already trying to do that. Split it into pieces.

Brian Lehrer: Is the America first wing as supportive of Israel funding as the rest of the Republican party? This includes Trump. If they say we need our dollars at home, not going to Ukraine, which doesn't matter enough to US national security, that's their argument, do they say Hamas' attack on Israel, like Russia's attack on Ukraine, is deplorable, but Israel is strong enough to fight its own wars? They don't need our money or our warships? I don't feel like I'm hearing that.

Mara Liasson: No. That's not what they're saying. Right now, there is stronger support for Israel in the Republican party than the Democratic party, although there is strong bipartisan support overall for helping Israel, so no, they haven't made that consistent argument. There is a big isolationist wing of the Republican party. You could say it's even an isolationist party now, but they aren't applying that equally to every conflict.

Brian Lehrer: Do you know why?

Mara Liasson: Oh, we could puzzle. There's a lot of different reasons. First of all, evangelicals have a very strong feeling about Israel because they believe in the end times and that the Messiah will come back in Israel and that's where the rapture will happen. I'm not very good on this theology, but that's one thing. The other thing is that Donald Trump, of course for political reasons, but also for other reasons, part of his brand was that he was going to be very strong on Israel.

Of course, he undermined that with his comments after the Hamas terrorist attacks by criticizing Bibi Netanyahu and by saying that Hezbollah was very smart, but then there's the Ukraine, which is very complicated. Remember, Donald Trump has a longtime animus against Ukraine and a longtime-- What do we want to say, affection or positive feeling about Vladimir Putin, that is shared by many in the Republican base-

Brian Lehrer: Deal, debt to repay.

Mara Liasson: -and he got impeached the first time because he tried to pressure Ukraine and they didn't do what he wanted.

Brian Lehrer: Back to Biden, why did he send warships there? Not just aid for defensive systems like the Iron Dome. Some people might say that's an escalation that makes the US a target in the region, not just Israel as a target.

Mara Liasson: Yes, I suppose some people do say that, but he sent those warships because he doesn't want the war to widen to become a regional conflict, and he's telling other actors, state actors, not just Hezbollah and Hamas, "Look, if you want to widen the war, if you Saudi--" Saudi Arabia wouldn't do this, but Iran, "If Iran, you want to go to war against Israel, we are here and we're going to protect our interests."

Brian Lehrer: I guess remains to be seen whether that makes Iran stay away or whether that makes Iran want to make a point. You talked on Weekend Edition yesterday about the challenge for Biden in his own party around the war, and you just alluded to it briefly now, especially with respect to the 2024 election. You referred to the younger Democrats, who may not be as supportive of Israel as older Democrats, plus the significant Arab and Muslim population in the crucial swing state of Michigan. Do you think we're seeing reelection politics, not just what he thinks is right in the world, guiding his language or his policies since October 7th?

Mara Liasson: It's hard to separate those things when you're the president of the United States. There's no doubt that he has embraced Israel very strongly, but he has also tried to succeed in a balancing act. He wants Israel to limit Palestinian casualties. He wants the Palestinians to know that the US supports them and they see the Palestinian people as separate from Hamas.

Of course, that's different than the facts on the ground when Hamas is physically intertwined with civilian population and infrastructure all over Gaza. I also think that he does feel strongly about Islamophobia in the United States, and that's why he spoke out about the six-year-old boy who was stabbed to death in what police are saying is a hate crime.

Brian Lehrer: Right, in llinois

Mara Liasson: I think there's no doubt that Joe Biden potentially has problems on his left with Israel. Polls show, as you said, younger Democrats and progressive Democrats are less supportive of Israel. Now, Bibi Netanyahu has made it very hard for American Jews who are liberal and believe in a two-state solution to be for Israel over the last 10 years because he is done everything possible to scuttle any chance for a two-state solution, and certainly Hamas doesn't believe in that either.

Brian Lehrer: Right, for Israel but not in a Netanyahu way. Yes, go ahead.

Mara Liasson: Pardon?

Brian Lehrer: Oh, I was just saying more liberal American Jews may still be very for Israel, but not in a Netanyahu way.

Mara Liasson: Yes, but not for Netanyahu.

Mara Liasson: Right. Certainly, Hamas doesn't want a two-state solution. They want a one-state solution from the river to the sea. They're very clear about that. The idea of a two-state solution, which is the only thing anybody's come up with to have peace in that area, has really been put to the side by both parties, Israel and the Palestinians, over the last decade. You could argue that that's one of the reasons we're here today in addition to the incredible divisiveness in Israeli politics because of Netanyahu's domestic efforts to get the Supreme Court reforms that he wants,

Brian Lehrer: Did Biden say yesterday-- I saw a reference to this, but I didn't say it myself, that delaying the Saudi normalization deal with Israel was a reason Hamas attacked now? I've seen analysts speculate on that, but did Biden himself say that?

Mara Liasson: I can't remember if Biden said that, but that is-- Every expert you talk to say that was the political objective of Hamas, to create a conflict. They knew that Israel would react and that to many people in the world, in the region, it would look like an overreaction. This has happened before, and the idea was to make it very hard for countries like Saudi Arabia, countries who are opposed to Iran in the region, to continue talking about normalization with Israel. Those talks had just begun. They're now derailed. We don't know if they're going to be scuttled forever, but yes, that was one of the political objectives of Hamas, and you could argue that they have succeeded. So far, they have succeeded.

Brian Lehrer: Is getting aid to Israel serving as any meaningful incentive for the House Republicans to finally pick a speaker?

Mara Liasson: The whole world is an incentive for the House Republicans to pick a speaker because there are so many things that they need to do, including not just sending aid to Israel or Ukraine or Taiwan, but keeping the government open because it shuts down on November 17th. They seem to be in chaos still. There certainly is no one that we can see that has 217 votes for a speaker.

Brian Lehrer: By the way, on the Saudi deal, that is now, at least for the moment, delayed, as you said on Weekend Edition yesterday, Hamas has succeeded. Sadly, I hate to see a terrorist attack succeed at anything.

Mara Liasson: Politically, so far, yes.

Brian Lehrer: Politically, right, so far. Do you know if that deal was going to move anything closer to a two-state solution? Something meaningful for the Palestinians in that respect that Hamas was actually maybe trying to avoid because, as you say, they want a one-state solution, rather than just leaving the Palestinians more isolated?

Mara Liasson: I don't know that. I think that the talks were in such a nascent stage, so it was so early that we couldn't tell, but we certainly know that Saudi Arabia is an opponent of Iran and Hamas is sponsored by Iran, and they didn't want normalization between Israel and its Arab neighbors like Qatar or UAE or Saudi Arabia or Egypt. We know that the history of the Middle East is that no one cares about the Palestinians. You'd think that Saudi Arabia or Qatar or other countries, UAE would say, "Hey, we'll come into Gaza, we'll provide a solution to this, we'll sponsor economic development, et cetera," but they don't. Egypt has closed the border. Well, they've opened it now for humanitarian purposes and to let a few refugees out. The history of the Middle East is that the Palestinians are always shunted to the side and their causes.

Brian Lehrer: Yes, and the Saudi deal might have done even more of that. About the failure of Jim Jordan speaker bid, and listeners if you're just joining us, I'm sure you recognize the voice, but we have a few minutes left with NPR national political correspondent Mara Liasson doing us a favor and coming on for just the WNYC audience for a few minutes today. About the failure of Jim Jordan Speaker bid, you referred on Weekend Edition to the Trump Revolution eating its young, and that violent rhetoric was fine with them when Trump targeted Democrats, but when it got turned on other Republicans, I guess by Jim Jordan's camp, a lot of Republicans didn't like it. Violent rhetoric is a strong term. What was it?

Mara Liasson: Well, look, there's a whole list of Trump's violent rhetoric. "Let's punch that protestor in the face. That guy should be carried out on a stretcher. If you come after me, I'll go after you." Then there was January 6th, which was a violent assault on the Capitol. Jim Jordan was the epitome of that kind of hardball tactics. There were dozens of calls to members of Congress threatening them if they didn't support Jordan. All of a sudden, all those squishes in Congress, that's what Republicans call moderates, got a spine. Usually, they just roll over, and this time they didn't. They were angry. They didn't like it. Well, they didn't say anything about it for a very long time, but now they don't like it.

Brian Lehrer: Is that a new term, 'squish'? I know we've had RINOs for a long time.

Mara Liasson: No, it's not new. No, not new at all.

Brian Lehrer: No, that's squish. Now that Kevin McCarthy, Steve Scalise, and Jim Jordan have all failed to win enough support to leave the House, I see they'll have a closed-door forum tonight with nine candidates who've thrown their hats in the ring. Does the fact that there are nine declared candidates indicate that they're really lost now?

Mara Liasson: Wait, does the fact that they really--? We'll nine--

Brian Lehrer: That they are lost.

Mara Liasson: Oh, lost in the wilderness, yes.

Brian Lehrer: Yes, exactly.

Mara Liasson: [laughs] Yes, because first of all, you have to nominate a speaker. Then you have to vote on the floor on the speaker and that person has to get 217 votes. They only have, I think, 221 Republicans in the House, or maybe 222, so they have a very narrow margin. This is, by the way, the same margin that Nancy Pelosi had, and she seemed to govern her Democrats pretty well. Nine candidates, which among them is going to be nominated, that's a secret ballot, and then that person goes for a vote on the floor and can they get 217 votes?

Maybe Republicans are just exhausted and they know that they have to get their act together and they'll just coalesce around someone. What's interesting to me is they could have, as an alternative or an off-ramp, just empowered the acting speaker, Patrick McHenry allowed him to bring bills to the floor temporarily, a month at a time, just like how they fund the government a month at a time, kicking the can down the road, but they didn't do that.

Brian Lehrer: Patrick McHenry, as the caretaker speaker, he cannot bring this Israel et cetera, aid package to the floor?

Mara Liasson: That's correct. There has to be a speaker or somebody empowered as speaker.

Brian Lehrer: I could list the nine names, but I won't. Are they more focused on one or two people than the number nine would make it seem?

Mara Liasson: Well, Tom Emmer, who's a majority whip because he's in the leadership, you'd think that he'd be the next leading candidate, just like Steve Scalise who was the majority leader was the leading candidate for a while until he failed. I can't really handicap those nine people except for the Tom Emmer, I think is going to be the first person for a test vote. Of course, he has a complicated relationship with Trump. He's not a pure out-and-out Trump person.

Brian Lehrer: Right. From Minnesota, right, Emmer?

Mara Liasson: Correct.

Brian Lehrer: The opposite of Jim Jordan, not really a Trump supporter, like you say. He says the election in 2020 was not stolen. He just says it. Jordan was waffling on that even just the other day. In such a Trumpy time for the GOP, does someone like him have a chance to get those 217 Republican votes? Almost every Republican in the House?

Mara Liasson: That is a question way above my pay grade. I don't know. We thought that other people would get 217 votes and they didn't. The divisions are really deep among the Republicans. Don't forget, a lot of this is structural. If you partisan gerrymander over and over, and you reduce the number of true swing districts where members have to appeal to swing voters to win, and you are left with Ruby Red gerrymandered districts where all Republicans are worried about is a right-wing challenge in a primary, this is what you get. There's no incentive for somebody from a district like that to cross the party lines, cross the aisle when they get to Congress and that's how you get gridlock and dysfunction. Here we are.

Brian Lehrer: Well, I was looking forward to that debate that they were going to have on Fox between Scalise and Jim Jordan, and then they canceled.

Mara Liasson: That was like Elon Musk and Zuckerberg. That debate didn't happen, right?

Brian Lehrer: I guess. I say line all of [unintelligible 00:15:40].

Mara Liasson: Oh, no, that was a wrestling match, actually. That wasn't a debate.

[laughter]

Brian Lehrer: It never happened, so I guess we're not going to see a nine-panelist debate on Fox for at least everybody's entertainment, even if it doesn't solve the problem. Mara Liasson, NPR national political correspondent, it's always great to hear you on the network. Thank you for all you do and thank you for giving us a few minutes this morning.

Mara Liasson: You're welcome.

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