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Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer on WNYC. For a closing segment today, we're going to take calls from those of you who are in a massive microgeneration. What, did you see that article in The New York Times? There is what they call a massive microgeneration of people born in the years 1990 and 1991. They make up the biggest chunk of the biggest generation ever, and because of this, they've been wielding a lot of power over economic influences. No, not just the popularity of avocado toast. Between college admissions in the last decade and now the housing crisis. They've also been in lifelong competition for America's economic resources.

Joining us to discuss her reporting on peak millennials is Jeanna Smialek, reporter covering the Federal Reserve and the Economy for The New York Times. Usually, yes, we'll ask her about today's inflation numbers that came out. She's the author of Limitless: The Federal Reserve Takes on a New Age of Crisis. Jeanna, thanks for coming on. Welcome back to WNYC.

Jeanna Smialek: Thank you for having me.

Brian Lehrer: You're reporting on what you call peak millennials. More specifically, who are they and where did that term come from?

Jeanna Smialek: Yes, well, I made the term up, so it's slightly unscientific, but what I mean by it is basically the population of people born in 1990 or 1991 and living in America today. These people weren't necessarily the largest generation immediately upon birth, but between both a very big birth generation and quite a lot of migration, they are the biggest population group by birth year in America today. The people who are either turning three this year or who entered the year being 33, are the biggest group, individual year of people in the country. I did this story focusing on how they had influenced the economy as they've moved through it, because they're such a big population group that they've actually been this economic force unto themselves.

Brian Lehrer: Of course, there have been a lot of forces that have acted on them, many of them negative, as they came of age just after 9/11 into the financial crisis and then the pandemic. Now maybe they're right at the age 32, 33, 34, where they want to be buying homes. Here we are with something on your beat, high interest rates.

Jeanna Smialek: That was absolutely the motivation for writing this story, is I think this population group is really interesting when it comes to the housing market. I think there's been a lot of surprise by how difficult it has been to slow down this housing market. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates above 5%, and the housing market has unquestionably cooled off, but we're still seeing prices rising. We've still seen pretty strong demand for new homes. That's, I think, been a surprise to many.

I think it is in big part explained by these demographic trends. This population of people is just aging into the group where they're finally ready to buy, and they're doing so at a time when it's obviously very difficult to do so. Like you mentioned, it's not the first time they've hit a road bump. These folks graduated from high school in 2008 and 2009, so right into the recession. They graduated from college in 2012 and 2013, so into a very weak entry level labor market. At every juncture in their financial and economic lives, they've really hit some roadblocks. I think this housing market, one that you referenced, is just the latest in that trend.

Brian Lehrer: On the influence by them, you write, "While it is difficult to pinpoint the spending habits of just two birth years, this group makes up a sizable chunk, about 13% of the generation that marketers have been trying to woo for more than a decade." Millennials do get accused of reversing tons of trends or credited with creating new ones. What cultural shifts are you focusing on that millennials are most responsible?

Jeanna Smialek: I think when millennials were reaching their adult years, we saw a boom in urbanization. We saw a bunch of cities suddenly come back onto the map as cool downtowns where people wanted to live. I think San Francisco is the prototypical one. Obviously, you saw to some degree that happening in Manhattan and in some of the bigger coastal cities as well. I think that was clearly very much a trend that the millennials, and particularly these peak millennials, drove.

It was very much in response to the fact that that's where the jobs were at that point. I think you can also definitely see their influence in the shift toward services over necessarily physical good consumption. These folks bought houses really late. They have pushed back home ownership, and with that, they've pushed back some of the accumulation of the things that go along with home ownership.

They didn't necessarily buy cars as early. They didn't buy furniture. They didn't buy washers and dryers. Instead, they were spending their money on things like concerts and avocado toast and brunch with their friends and vacations. I think that these economic trends are very much interconnected with some of the more popular consumer trends that I think we're all very familiar with.

Brian Lehrer: Listeners with all that as prelude from Jeanna Smialek, from The New York Times, any so-called peak millennialists tuning in right now? If you're 32, 33, 34, born in 1990, 1991, what do you want to say about growing up as a part of this microgeneration? Did you feel like you were in stiff competition with your peers because there were so many of you for college admissions, finding that first apartment in a new city, entry level jobs in your field? Or how about now, as some of you at 32, 33, 34 are entering the housing market, having kids, moving to the suburbs? I don't know, maybe you all want to start singing the Taylor Swift song that goes, "It's me. Hi, I'm the problem. I'm 33." We should have pulled that song for this segment, right, Jeanna?

Jeanna Smialek: That was the headline on our story, which I have to credit my editor for. She came up with that.

Brian Lehrer: 212-433-WNYC. If you are peak millennials in that microgeneration, born in 1990, 1991 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692. You're right, Jeanna, that economic influence we were just describing. You were just describing extends well beyond the day-to-day consumption. You're right about how you went to college in 2009 when it seemed like everyone else was going at the same time. Want to tell us more about that experience and how it informed this story?

Jeanna Smialek: Oh, I'm sorry, I lost you for just a minute but when I lost you, you were saying day-to-day consumption.

Brian Lehrer: Oh, yes. That the influence of the generation extends beyond day-to-day consumption into just the large numbers of people like when you went to college. You're right, it seemed like everyone else was going to college in 2009. Maybe talk about that experience and how it informs your story.

Jeanna Smialek: I think it's really interesting if you look at the data on peak matriculation. The peak of people entering colleges, it happened right in 2010, which was when these millennials, this big group of people were in college. It happened for a couple of reasons. It was partially because there were just so many millennials entering college, and it was partially because this was the depths of the Great Recession, the worst recession since the Great Depression. It was the worst one since the 1930s.

People were trying to shelter in college, basically keep themselves out of the labor market for a couple of years. What that meant was that we saw even community colleges, which had prided themselves on taking everybody who applied actually turning away applicants in those years. It was the case that there was just such fierce competition for a limited number of seats in some colleges and just in general a limited supply of resources.

I think we saw that happen definitely in the college going market. Then I think we have seen it in the time since, as millennials have moved through towards later trends. Obviously, we saw big move up in apartment rents in some cities where millennials were particularly concentrated, like San Francisco. I think we've seen more recently, obviously, millennials competing really starkly for housing.

I think in general, this has been a consistent trend. This population is really big. When they move through a life stage, they tend to compete for the resources at that life stage. The economy expands pretty rapidly. Here in the United States, we have a very dynamic economy, but these big demographic moments can take it unawares a little bit and takes a little while for it to adjust.

Brian Lehrer: Has the demand for higher education fallen off as millennials hit their 30s? How is that going to continue to affect colleges? Are we starting to see any big changes now as this particular population bubble moves out of the college in grad school age?

Jeanna Smialek: Yes. We are seeing a really interesting couple of shifts happening in higher Ed that are really just nascent and happening right now. After millennials, the peak of the millennial generation passed through colleges, we did have a couple of subsequent very big birth years. Not as big as millennials, but very big. Right around the early 2000s, we had a couple of pretty big birth years, but now those folks are moving through college and really getting through.

Simultaneously, as the population hitting college years is smaller, we're also seeing a situation where people are increasingly dubious about the value of a four-year college degree and opting for potentially other options of post-high school training. As we've seen this shift away from higher education and this shrinking potential population of higher education students in some parts of the country, like the northern states in particular, we're really seeing smaller universities, in general, less competitive universities, really struggle to fill their seats. We're seeing universities merge. We're seeing universities close down. I think this is going to be a trend. I talked to quite a few education experts for this story, and they think that this is going to be a trend that could be with us for a while, both for demographic reasons and also for those cultural reasons I mentioned.

Brian Lehrer: Here is peak millennial, Rachel in Fair Lawn. You're on WNYC. Hi, Rachel.

Rachel: Hi. Long-time listener, first-time caller. I am a 2012 graduate at Brandeis University, meaning I graduated high school in 2008 as the recession was beginning in a very, very competitive high school class. Then right before final exams in my fall semester, I remember it was a Saturday night. I remember learning the news-breaking about the Madoff scandal.

As a student at a very funded by those who were affected by Madoff University, the culture changed very quickly. I now see my beloved alma mater advertising very strongly for admissions. It's bizarre to me because it was super competitive 15 years ago when I was applying. I'm now the rabbi of a congregation, and seeing my high school students applying to college, it feels like a different world. A lot are opting for local schools.

Brian Lehrer: Really interesting. Thank you, Rachel. It's just what you were saying in your last answer. It really backs that up about the different kinds of schools that students are looking at today. Jeanna?

Jeanna Smialek: Yes, absolutely. I think geographically, I think it also is very much in line. I think we're seeing some of the schools that are in the south hang on a little bit better, but I think in a lot of the country, there's really this dearth of new applicants because of these very demographic reasons. They just are not as many younger Gen Zs as there were millennials. That's going to be a really important demographic trend for the next decade, and potentially even after.

Brian Lehrer: Another peak millennial calling in. Michael in Brightwaters, New York. You're on WNYC. Hi, Michael.

Michael: Hi, Brian. I just wanted to let you know, I graduated class of '08 high school, and then class of 2012 for my bachelor's degree. I think one thing that the older generations did not recognize at the time was our generation wanted what our grandparents had, the idea of the American dream, the idea of going to college, getting your education, and then being able to get a job. Now, because of the recession in 2008 lasting as long as it did, I don't think anybody really anticipated that the job market would not be as plentiful around the same time that one would receive their bachelor's after four years, which makes housing very difficult for my generation.

It's very discouraging because you do everything the correct way. Then when you still struggle at the end, there's really no light at the end of the tunnel. However, it made, I guess, our generation of millennials born between 1990 and 1991 a little bit more resilient, but maybe not as optimistic as to someone born in maybe 1988 or 1989.

Brian Lehrer: Just that small little difference of birth year. Jeanna, what are you thinking?

Jeanna Smialek: I think it is really interesting. If you look at where unemployment was in these years, in the 2008 to 2015 period. The period that these folks were entering the labor market, whether it was out of high school or out of college, it was pretty much weak throughout. We saw basically double-digit unemployment for people in the age group that they were in throughout that entire period.

I think that that really has long-term scars on a generation. I think the economic literature is pretty clear that if you enter the labor market into a very weak labor market, that can follow you for quite a while, really throughout your economic life. Those first couple of years are very important. I think it's not surprising to hear that people really feel that and really think that it impacted the generation.

Brian Lehrer: One more. Sophie in Manhattan, peak millennial calling in. Hi, Sophie.

Sophie: Hi.

Brian Lehrer: Tell us the story real quick because we're going to run out of time.

Sophie: I was calling in to say that I've noticed that myself and people my age lean a little more Gen Z in terms of how we think about work and spending money. There's a little bit of that tug between the millennial hustlers who maybe are more inclined to save money and their parents than the younger generation who's more inclined to value their freedom and spend money on traveling and experiences. I definitely notice that with people specifically born in 1990 and 1991. I feel like I get a certain vibe from those people where we maybe don't take work as seriously.

Brian Lehrer: Really interesting, Sophie. I have to leave it there for time. Can you give me a 15-second response to that? Does that ring true to you, Jeanna?

Jeanna Smialek: I think it's interesting. I think certainly, this is a younger group of millennials. I think culturally, some of it does skew a little bit more Gen Z, some of it skews a little bit more elder millennial. I think it's person-dependent at some level.

Brian Lehrer: From your beep covering the Fed, can you give me a quick analysis of today's inflation news? The consumer price index climbed 3.2% last month, just out today from a year earlier. That's way down from the 9% that it was, but it's still higher than they want it to be.

Jeanna Smialek: I think in a line, it's a reason to be wary, but not a reason to freak out. I think that inflation is moving sideways at the moment. It was coming down really steadily. Now it's flat-lining just above 3%. I think that's probably enough to keep the Fed from thinking its job is done, but also probably not enough to make them panic and think that they're completely losing this battle. I think it's this wait and see report.

Brian Lehrer: Does it affect peak millennials differently than anyone else?

Jeanna Smialek: It affects peak millennials right along with the rest of the country. If the inflation is 3.1%, it still means prices are rising faster than they were before the pandemic. I think we're all contending with what that means for our wallets.

Brian Lehrer: I guess Joe Biden is going to contend with what that means for his re-election campaign. We leave it there with Jeanna Smialek, reporter covering the Federal Reserve and the Economy for the New York Times, author of Limitless: The Federal Reserve Takes on a New Age of Crisis.

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