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Brian: Brian Lehrer on WNYC. Michael Moore will join us next to talk mostly about his home state of Michigan, where by way of background, for those of you not in Michigan, the news is intense right now. It could be the ultimate swing state in the election. Three million absentee ballots have been requested in the state and over half of them have already been returned.

You know about the alleged domestic terror plot, with those guys accused of plotting to kidnap the governor, Gretchen Whitmer, 14 people arrested. Anticipating attempts at voter intimidation, the state on Friday issued a ban on openly carrying guns to polling places, and yesterday, thousands of students at the University of Michigan were given a two-week stay-at-home order, because the area is experiencing a big COVID surge that's being traced back to the student body when they go into the Greater Ann Arbor area.

Against that backdrop, we welcome back the filmmaker, Michael Moore, also these days host of his podcast called Rumble. In 2016, you remember he predicted Trump would win when the polls were predicting he wouldn't. Let's see what light he can shed on the situation right now. Hi, Michael. We always appreciate it when you come on. Welcome back to WNYC.

Michael Moore: Oh, thank you for having me, Brian. Thank you very much.

Brian: How close do you think it is in Michigan right now?

Michael Moore: I think it's close. I think even people on both sides, Trump and Biden, even though the polls have been showing Biden ahead by seven, eight, nine points, nobody really believes that, and especially based on what happened in 16. Back in July, Joe Biden-- Actually there was one poll where he was ahead of Trump just in July, by about 16 points. The average of the polls [unintelligible 00:02:28] is about eight points. That means that Trump has cut Biden's lead in half, just since July. Last Saturday, Trump appeared in Muskegon, Michigan at a rally. Thousands came out. The interesting thing about Muskegon is that it's one of only two counties on the whole west side of the state that in 2016, voted for Hillary Clinton, even though she lost the state of Michigan by a little over 10,000 votes.

Brian: Barely, barely a sliver of a fraction of a percent.

Michael Moore: Yes. Here's how much of a sliver. That's an average of two votes per precinct. Two votes per precinct is how she lost Michigan. In this county, Muskegon, back on Saturday, he shows up there. He doesn't go to a Trump county. He goes to a Hillary county, thousands come out to see him. I thought, wow. Muskegon has a significant Black population for the west side of Michigan. I looked at that, and I thought, yes, don't ever take him for granted.

If we could turn the clock back to four years ago from today, people listening to the show right now. Be honest, ask yourself, what were you thinking? Oh, Trump's got this in the bag, right? No. You were not thinking that. You were thinking just like the New York Times on the day of the election, on the front page, they had that little box, the percentage chance of Hillary winning today, 85%. 85% chance of winning, only 15% chance of Trump. Most people were absolutely convinced that this was Hillary's election.

I said, and I and said four months leading up to the election, and that's only because I live a big chunk of my time in Michigan. That's what I saw-- You're just walking down the road, Trump sign after Trump sign after Trump sign, and you listen to the chatter in the coffee shop or at the gas station, or wherever. I just kept-- where are the Hillary yard signs? There was really no real ground game. I think she came once to the state, she didn't go to Wisconsin at all. To me, it just seemed like nobody's taking this seriously. [crosstalk]

Brian: That was then, and I think they have more of a ground game in the Biden camp than they did in the Clinton camp in 2016. I'm curious what you make of all this early voting by absentee ballot, that is expected to run much more Biden, relative to the in-person vote on Election Day, which might be more evenly divided or more Trump. Do you trust that the ballots will get delivered by the post office and counted?

Michael Moore: Well, I could only hope so. I don't know. I have heard from enough postal workers who've been concerned about this actually, for many months, and who informed our senator who's up for reelection, Gary Peters, he's a Democrat. He's the ranking Democrat on the Senate committee for the post office. People were letting him know that they're removing these boxes, they're removing the machinery in the post office. This went on for really, as soon as the new postmaster took over, I believe in June, went on for months, and

nothing was being said or done about this.

I think people are in pins and needles. I think probably everybody listening to you right now, Brian, is on pins and needles. I think that the whole country is very nervous about what's going on. To answer your question, again, I don't operate with a sense of, "Oh, Trump's just an idiot." Don't think he's an idiot at all. [chuckles] If I had said to you five years ago, "I'm going to run for president, now here's my plan, Brian. I'm going to run, but my plan is to lose the popular vote by three million votes, but I'm still going to win the White House." You're like, "Who booked this guy on the show?" He gets away and has gotten away with so much.

Can I just say, this last week of his non-- He did this in Michigan on Saturday, non-stop calling Joe Biden a criminal, calling President Obama a criminal, still calling Hillary a criminal, and getting the chant going of lock her up, lock him up. Let me just posit something here, and see what people think of this. Keep in mind that he literally has sort of gotten away with everything we thought he wouldn't get away with, or every time he said something. Whether the first time he said that about John McCain or whether it was the Billy Bush tape or whatever. Remember what you said in your head, "That's the end of Trump." It never was the end of Trump, and he got away with it.

Let's imagine at four o'clock this afternoon, a break-in, actually on whatever is on WNYC at four o'clock this afternoon. A break-in and they say the Justice Department has just arrested Joe Biden and his son Hunter. They've also taken his wife Jill into custody. The report says the federal marshals did this. There's a report that the FBI refused to do it, so Bill Barr had federal marshals literally arrest Joe Biden and take him away.

I want you to really not just think of this as some crazy possibility, but the intensity of Trump for the last week or so, focusing on Biden as a criminal, he must be arrested. He's angry at Bill Barr for not arresting Biden, something that would only happen in some very dictatorship.

Brian: You're saying if they actually did that, then his supporters would not abandon him? Is that what you're saying?

Michael Moore: Oh, my God. They're so energized and enthused already. Every poll also shows the enthusiasm level of Trump supporters versus Biden supporters. His support is through the roof. He still has those 63 million people that are his base. 63 million people.

Brian: I'll give you one. Let me ask you about this in a Michigan context, because despite the current surge in coronavirus, and Michigan is experiencing its worst outbreak of the whole pandemic right now. Over the weekend, Trump held that rally that you mentioned, the in-person rally in Muskegon near Grand Rapids, and shouted, "Get your governor to open up your state," and encouraged the crowd, chanting, "Lock her up," as you were saying.

What about the content of encouraging the opening up, and about getting all those people together? Do you see any evidence yet of this becoming another Trump spreader event, or of a backlash against that, and among a lot of, let's say, older white people in Michigan who might have voted for him the first time but feel like he's playing fast and loose with their health for personal gain?

Michael Moore: Yes, I do believe that. Again, I try to figure this out because what's the thinking here with Trump? The one demographic that he won by a large margin was the over 65 vote. Why didn't he take the reins of this right at the beginning and be the savior? Back when we know now that he knew, as he told Bob Woodward. He said, "Bob, this is a plague. Bob, this is a killer." It's airborne, he says. It's airborne, Bob. Yes, he knew the whole time, and he knows now. He's going out and doing these events. Of course, these will be superspreader events. You can't have thousands of people show up like that in a state that already has a high rate of coronavirus.

Yes, I believe senior citizens have turned away from him. I don't want to hang my hat on anything that I hear about being hopeful that it's going to be a certain way. Again, his base is so enthused, so energized, and Biden's base, every poll shows this. It's the number one reason they give for voting for Biden. It should be because Biden is going to be a great president or Biden's going to do this about health care, but no, he's not Trump. We're going to stop Trump. For me, that's a very legitimate reason to go vote, but you're now hoping to elect your candidate based on hate and based on a negative.

Haven't we been taught since we were kids that love conquers hate and that the emotion that people have for Trump is intense? I believe every single one of them will be out there to vote. He'll probably get more votes than he did last time. Nobody should take any of this for granted. Everybody needs to wake up every morning for the next 12, 13 days with this one thought, Trump is going to win. Trump is going to win. Now people are listening right now, Mike, don't say that. Don't say it. Yes, I will say it because he already proved he could do it.

Brian: You're not saying he's going to win.

Michael Moore: Oh, no, I'm not. No, no, I'm not saying that, but you have to operate, as if-- Look, let's go back to the New York Times telling us that he only had a 15% chance of winning on Election Day. When you woke up this morning, if you heard there was a 15% or 20% chance of rain today, how many of you take an umbrella to work, if you're going to work? How many? If you hear there's a 15%, 20% chance of rain, you operate as if it may rain.

Brian: Don't take anything for granted. We've just got a minute left, Michael. As you know, many of our listeners right now are in New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut, which are considered not in play. I get calls from people around here asking what they can do from afar to help the party of their choice in swing states like Michigan. Is there an answer for Michigan?

Michael Moore: Yes. Everybody listening to this must know or know somebody who knows somebody or is related to somebody in Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania. You have to make those calls, send text. How about this, and this is true across the country. All of us know somebody that usually doesn't vote. There is somebody in your extended family, in your friends, a classmate, whatever. Adopt one person you know that is generally a non-voter and make it your mission in these two weeks to convince that person. Don't vote shame them, don't wag your finger at them. Just tell them you understand why they've checked out of the system. It is corrupt. It's not fully democratic. The majority gender still makes only 80 cents on the dollar and only has 25% of the seats in Congress.

That's not truly democratic when the majority doesn't have the power. You get it, but you have to say, "Look, just this once, just this once." Hold your hand out to this person, and say, "Just vote, just for me, just for me. If it doesn't work, don't do it again. Just this time, get out there and do that." I tell people to spend the weekends [unintelligible 00:15:27] you got this weekend, you got next weekend. If you don't have a yard sign, make a yard sign, get some poster boards. If you're an apartment building, put it in your window, Biden everywhere.

People need to see this. Call your friends, you've got an address book and your iPhone, text them, email them, and then maybe the next two Sundays, in a very safe COVID safe way, if you live in an apartment building, knock on the doors of your neighbor's. Stand back, make sure you've got the mask and the glasses and everything on and just say, "Hey, we're your neighbors just down the hall or just down the street. I just want to encourage you to get out there and vote for Joe Biden." Say something positive about Biden, not just negative about Trump. Look, we can pull this off. Don't get me wrong. It could a tsunami of a landslide against Trump if we all do our work in these next two weeks. Don't believe for a second that he can't pull this off.

Brian: Filmmaker Michael Moore, also a host of his podcast, Rumble. Michael, thank you for some time today. We always appreciate it.

Michael Moore: Thank you so much, Brian. Thank you to everybody who's listening.

Brian: Brian Lehrer and WNYC much more to come.

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