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Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer on WNYC, and now the final segment in our special edition. January 6th, 2021 meets January 6th, 2023. Of course, we spend most of our time today reflecting on the events that took place at the Capitol two years ago, but what about what's happening right now today in those very same halls? Here's an NBC news headline from Within the Hour. It says, "McCarthy and foes inch closer to a deal as speaker standoff enters day four."

Then they almost contradict their own headline by saying, "An agreement with Freedom Caucus leaders on the rule changes and committee slots could flip some votes if it comes together, but it appears unlikely to secure the total McCarthy needs." Let's see what's going on with New York Times congressional reporter Luke Broadwater who is on the job. Luke, thanks for giving us a few minutes in the middle of all this. Welcome back to WNYC.

Luke Broadwater: Hi. Thanks for having me.

Brian Lehrer: Are they inching closer to a deal?

Luke Broadwater: Inching closer, that's probably a good way to put it. There's been a long call going on this morning with many of the Republicans trying to talk about these very issues. The problem for Kevin McCarthy is that he's negotiating with some of his holdouts but not with all of them. Some of them want nothing to do with any of these negotiations so they're not even taking part.

It may be the case that he can convince some of the 20 or 21 people who are dead-set against him to come over and vote for him, but if he doesn't get them all, he can't become speaker. He can only lose four Republican votes. If there's five or more that are still opposed to him, then he is in the same situation essentially that he was before. He's trying to show some movement. If he can get a couple of those to swing his way, it looks like he has momentum-- For a while now, he's been stalled or the momentum has been going in the opposite direction.

Brian Lehrer: What's the most surprising thing to you, or the most extreme thing that Kevin McCarthy has been willing to negotiate a way to the radical fringe to get elected as speaker?

Luke Broadwater: For a long time, he said he would never agree to the motion to vacate, but he has since now put out there that he's willing to do this. This would allow any single member at any time to call a snap vote to remove him as speaker. It's something that really bedeviled the two previous Republican speakers, John Boehner and Paul Ryan. Nancy Pelosi had that change when she came in. She didn't want there to be the free for all on the floor whenever any single member had their feelings hurt or wanted to grandstand. McCarthy, it appears is willing to do that, which would very much weaken him as a speaker, but he is hopeful it will pick him up some votes from the hard right.

Brian Lehrer: I mentioned earlier in the show that 13 of the 20 current holdouts are the same members who are in a small group of just 21 who voted against the Congressional Gold Medal for Capitol police officers and other law enforcement for their bravery and losses and injuries on January 6th. That vote was 406 to 21 in favor of a Congressional Gold Medal for Capitol Police, 406 to 21. 13 of those few no votes on honoring law enforcement came from the same gang of 20. What's the overlap there?

Luke Broadwater: You do see a lot of overlap between the people who opposed certifying the election for Joe Biden and were some of Donald Trump's top lieutenants as they tried to overturn the 2020 election. This current group of rebels which is opposed to Kevin McCarthy, they're very much believers in the counter-narrative about January 6th. They don't believe the facts that the mainstream media reports about what happened on January 6th.

I think they view they were heroically fighting to keep Donald Trump in office against a fraudulent election. They have a completely different worldview from most Americans. There's a lot of overlap there between those different groups of people. In some cases, they're even more extreme than Trump himself. Trump himself is calling for ceasefire here and for everyone to vote for Kevin McCarthy, and they're saying, "Trump can't control us. We're going to be the diehard holdouts here to the end."

Brian Lehrer: Is that a meaningful indicator of the loss of influence by Donald Trump?

Luke Broadwater: Yes, I think so. I think it's really clear on the Hill these days that Donald Trump influence is much diminished. He has called for these members to do something, they don't listen to him. He didn't move a single vote. In fact, votes moved the opposite way after he called for the support of Kevin McCarthy. We've seen similar situations to that when he announced to run for president. To my knowledge, I don't think a single sitting US senator has supported his campaign yet. There may be one or two that I've missed, but there has not been a groundswell of seated lawmakers in Congress who are rushing to support his campaign. I do think his power is diminished on Capitol Hall.

Brian Lehrer: Luke Broadwater, New York Times congressional correspondent with us for a few minutes reporting from the scene of not voting in the speaker of the House yet here on the fourth day of not voting in a speaker of the house. 212-433-WNYC. Rich in Pennsylvania has a question for you, Luke. Rich, you're on WNYC. Hello.

Rich: Hi. My question is this, has anybody thought that potentially this is a dry run by obstructionists so that when the 2024 election occurs, there's no House of Representatives present to ratify the Electoral College votes?

Brian Lehrer: Wow. That's a pretty extreme scenario because that would have to assume that they never do see the House of Representatives. They have to vote in the speaker before they can seat the next House of Representatives, but they're not looking to do that, right? That's a conspiracy theory too far, I think.

Luke Broadwater: I do think it's a legitimate concern. The longer this goes on, the normal functions of government cease to exist. If this goes to the 13th, committee staff on Capitol Hill can't be paid. Right now, there are actually no seated congressmen or congresswomen. They are still representatives-elect. They can't form committees. They can't launch oversight investigations. They can't pass a bill. They can't even pass a resolution. They can't even swear themselves in right now. Yesterday, one of the Republicans, Susan [unintelligible 00:07:37], was lamenting that what if there was an attack on the United States? We couldn't even declare war? We're not even a chamber right now. The longer this goes on, I do think you'll run into some real problems. Can you pass a spending bill? Can you fund the military? Can you raise the debt ceiling when we have to pay our bills? There are real serious questions here. I think it also portends what every single one of those votes and fights is going to be like. If it's going to be two, three weeks of bitter fighting where a slice of the Republican Congress wants to shut down the House, we're in for a long and disruptive two years.

Brian Lehrer: Right. That's the theme of your analysis in The Times today, headline, "Speaker Quest Reveals McCarthy's Tenuous Grip on an Unruly Majority." It says, "The US should brace for the likelihood of a Congress in disarray for the next two years." You think we're likely to see with a slim Republican majority, the same 20 people more or less, holding up significant pieces of content, not just naming a speaker?

Luke Broadwater: Look at the rule changes they're demanding. They want more members of the far-right House Freedom Caucus on the Rules Committee, which could really gum up the legislative process if these people throw monkey wrenches at every turn. They want the motion to vacate back so that [chuckles] anytime they're mad at Kevin McCarthy, they're forcing votes to throw him out and taking up floor time with that. They want what they call an open process on any spending bill, which means that any member at any time can offer amendments, which could really drag things to a halt as they try to fund the government if all these amendments are flowing in from different people.

They already are putting forward an agenda that will slow down the works of government, and what is already a dysfunctional environment on Capitol Hill. Now, I do think they have some reforms in mind that have broad support. There's a lot of people who are displeased with the way spending happens on Capitol Hill. You get these huge 4,000-page spending bills in the last minute, people don't have the time to read them, and they had to vote on them very quickly.

One proposal was for there to be 72-hour limit between when a bill is introduced and when it's voted on. There are some things that I think a lot of people can get behind and that a lot of Congress will agree to, but there are other demands that seem almost petty or personal in nature. Some of these holdouts are demanding plum committee seats and to be the chairman of a subcommittee, things like that, and that's going over really poorly with the other Republicans.

Brian Lehrer: We just have a minute left. Let me get Jack in Brooklyn on the line who has a relevant question for you. Hi, Jack. Real quick to the point. Thanks for calling in.

Jack: Hi. Why don't the Democrats help him out in order to take away the power of those right-wing Republicans?

Brian Lehrer: Yes. Any scenario there, Luke, for some kind of unity government with some Democratic votes and they get something in return?

Luke Broadwater: I do think if it goes on too long, the Democrats might feel pressure to bail the Republicans out. Right now, the Democrats, at first, they were enjoying this. They had the popcorn out, as they were saying. They were laughing at the Republican dysfunction and showing how these people don't know how to govern, but if the institution itself is getting severely damaged, I do think if it goes on long enough, there may be some Democrats who are willing to vote present to lower the threshold and allow McCarthy to get in with a lower threshold of votes.

Brian Lehrer: It would only take about five Democrats doing that, but 10 seconds, could they get something in return and what might that be?

Luke Broadwater: That would be on negotiations. Look, the Democrats don't think Kevin McCarthy is a good leader. They don't want him to be speaker. They're unified to vote for Hakeem Jeffries. What I described is a very long-shot scenario, and it would only be if there was absolute ruin to the institution.

Brian Lehrer: Luke Broadwater covering the mess in Congress for The New York Times. Luke, thanks a lot.

Luke Broadwater: Thank you.

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