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Brian Lehrer: It's The Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC. Good morning, again, everyone. US politics don't exist in a vacuum. As Trump and the anti-democracy movement rose in America, it was rising in other countries across the globe too. Latin America, where many New Yorkers are from, is sometimes a bellwether for political movements globally. Right now voters in a number of countries there appear to be turning left, frustrated with leaders from the center-right, and the right-wing. In Honduras and Chile, for example, recent election saw key victories for the left, driven primarily by widening inequality and economic distress after nearly two pandemic years.

My next guest reports that there are indicators that the political tilt may extend to Colombia, even to Jair Bolsonaro Brazil next, and there may be implications for us and other countries around the world. With us now, Ernesto Londoño, the New York Times Brazil bureau chief overseeing coverage of Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay. His new article in the Times is called Leftists Are Ascendant in Latin America as Key Elections Loom. Hi, Ernesto. Thanks for coming on. Welcome to WNYC.

Ernesto Londoño: Hey, Brian, it's great to be with you.

Brian Lehrer: Let's just dive right in on an example that a lot of our listeners may not have heard about because it doesn't get covered that much in this country. Chile, where a 35-year-old former student activist named Gabriel Boric was elected to the presidency. Who is Gabriel Boric? What did he run on? Who did he defeat in that election?

Ernesto Londoño: That's right. He made history by becoming the youngest president in the nation's history. He rose to prominence as a student activist about a generation ago when Chilean students took to the streets asking for reduced tuition for low-income students. He's been a lawmaker for several years and has become a more mainstream politician in that way rather than a grassroots activist, but he came out of left field in a way in that he launched a campaign outside the traditional parties and coalitions that had been dominant in Chile.

He made some pretty bold proposals. He said he was going to raise taxes on the rich in order to give the poor better services and that he was going to make some pretty structural changes to the way the government works in order to more equitably distribute wealth. He also placed a lot of emphasis on environmental issues, and I think in doing so really captured the imagination of a younger segment of the electorate who rallied behind him. He was facing a pretty far-right opponent, which is also atypical in Chilean elections. It appeared to be a pretty tight race, but on election night, he won handily. It was clear that the message he was offering was a lot more appealing than that of his opponent.

Brian Lehrer: You mentioned his opponent being far-right there, even suggestions that the opponent of the right-wing, José Antonio Kast, was the son of a Nazi who had come from Europe, once upon a time. Was that just smear tactics? Or was that far-right tilt to his campaign?

Ernesto Londoño: No. He put forward some pretty extreme positions. He said he was going to empower the security forces to restore order. There was a real anti-immigrant streak to his campaign at a time when Chile has absorbed many hundreds of thousands of immigrants from Venezuela and Haiti. These were polar opposite politicians on the political spectrum. It was interesting that it was what the electorate wanted to see, make it to the final round.

I think across the board we're seeing more extremist leaders or politicians really registering with voters who are pretty dissatisfied and, in many cases, angry at the status quo. What we've seen in a number of elections is a very strong anti-incumbent sentiment. I think, in many cases, voters aren't necessarily voting for the candidate who gets elected, many times they are voting against somebody who they see as a bigger threat to their interests and their lot in life.

Brian Lehrer: Polarization there as here. Listeners, with ties to Latin America, help us report this story. We can take your calls on presidential politics anywhere in the region. The challengers on the left who are trying to replace more right-wing incumbents in Colombia and Brazil or the leftist leader soon to take office in Chile, like we were just talking about in Honduras, which we're about to, or give us a report from anywhere else, in Latin America, Guatemala, El Salvador, Ecuador. My guest is Ernesto Londoño, New York Times Brazil bureau chief overseeing coverage of Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay. 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692, or tweet @BrianLehrer.

Let's go on to Honduras second. Tell us about the president-elect there, and why she might have been successful in her campaign against the conservative from the incumbent party?

Ernesto Londoño: Sure. Xiomara Castro is not a necessarily political outsider. In fact, she's a former first lady after former President Manuel Zelaya. I think she got traction because she put forward the kind of proposals that we have seen succeed across the region. She, for instance, said she was going to create a system of universal basic income for the poorest families, expand social welfare, and take on the ruling elites of the country and force them to more equitably distribute wealth.

I think the message that the left has put forward consistently over the years, over decades in Latin America, is that it is necessary to take on these entrenched ruling elites, clusters of families that have been the powerful and the rich for generations. In order to do so, you need to change the tax system, and you need to have land reform in order to have land be in the hands of more people, rather than just a small number of players who don't change over the years.

What happens oftentimes when the leftist leaders come to power is they run across pretty entrenched interests that don't want to make it easier for them to make these changes. Oftentimes, it is the same powerful people and power brokers who are integral to remaining in power and getting elected. I think time and again, we've seen how hard it is for leftist leaders to deliver on these visions of changing the status quo, of distributing wealth differently, and really lifting up the middle class and the poor people in Latin America. When they succeeded in doing so in the past, it's usually coincided with a period of prosperity.

Most recently, I think, in the early 2000s, you had a commodities boom ripple across the region, which gave many leftist leaders a lot of leeway to spend more money on some of the programs they had promised, without really cutting into the wealth or power of the elites, but we find ourselves in a very different era right now.

Brian Lehrer: We'll talk about Brazil coming up. Americans do pay attention to Brazil with Lula da Silva, the leftist President previously, and Jair Bolsonaro, often described as the Donald Trump of Brazil in power now. Why is that very major and important and large country swinging back and forth so much between left and right? It seems in their upcoming election they may swing back to the left. We'll get to that. We'll talk about how and in what ways the countries in Latin America are bellwethers for here, anywhere else, but let's take our first phone call from Laurie in Queens whose daughter is living in Chile. Laurie, you're on WNYC. Hello.

Laurie: Hi, thank you for taking my call. My daughter has been living in Chile for five, six years now. Her boyfriend's family, which is upper middle class gated communities, all the kids went to French, or German schools, private schools growing up, are very conservative. They were all forecast. In her observations, this is a very class-driven society for whether you're on the right or the left because she was there right before COVID when there was the million people who came into Santiago, countries like 17 million people, million people came out to protest to have the Constitution change because that was what was under Pinochet. It got pretty violent, but that is the difference in that country. There is such a class difference.

Brian Lehrer: Laurie, thank you very much. Before we get your reaction to that, Ernesto, we have another caller with ties to Chile, Esteban in Brooklyn. You're on WNYC. Hello, Esteban.

Esteban: Hello. Thank you for taking my call. My connection is okay? Yes?

Brian Lehrer: Yes, you're great.

Esteban: I want to make three comments and it's very relevant to your other caller. I am a first-generation American, native New Yorker, but my family's from Chile. The caller is correct about the class divide in Chile being very severe and often governing political perspective, but I think there's three things. There's one religion, which being a Catholic nation, and having issues like abortion on the table might have more profound effects when you have somebody on the left that may allow it and someone on the right that may not. Then also the history that is Pinochet, and having had a prior dictatorship, which is not as black and white as is viewed perhaps here, people there sometimes see him as a savior from the conditions in Río Verde.

Having that history of socialism being bad potentially and right-wing activism been good, although that's not a universal perspective, it is sometimes often held by upper-class. Also, the religion factor that we have not yet talked about, which I'm sure your guest can speak to, that may influence not only the economic disparity, which is a big gap to be discussed specifically in Chile.

Brian Lehrer: Esteban, before you go, as somebody whose family roots are there, but who lives here and grew up here, how would you compare the two countries in terms of the tensions and the sources of the tensions between right and left?

Esteban: Honestly, that's a great question because it's something my parents who came here in the '70s talk about and had me here as a scholarship recipient. My father was part of the brain drain of that era. They escaped, so to speak, a country that this country is resembling now. Meaning this country is approaching that inequality, that divide, and that acrimonious relationship between the two extremes. I think the acrimony is part of the economics that's going on in this nation. I would dare say that the US is somehow culturally resembling the old Chile that they fled from to come to a place which had a healthy middle class, which seems to be disappearing.

Brian Lehrer: Ernesto, thank you for sharing your experiences and your observations. I mean Esteban. Ernesto Londoño from the New York Times, Brazil bureau chief there, what do you think as you heard those last two callers with ties to Chile?

Ernesto Londoño: Sure. I think Laurie has given me some pretty good points. On the class system, I do think many people who are more conservative or more aligned with the traditional parties with the status quo see in [unintelligible 00:13:13] a significant threat. I've heard it summarized as if this guy is going to come and promise to spend a lot of money by giving out more generous pensions, by investing in education and the healthcare system, and in doing so, taking on big debt, they're going to govern in fiscally irresponsible ways, it's going to give investors pause, and somebody is going to have to foot the bill down the line. I think leftists who come into power promising to spend a lot of money that isn't really around for them to spend, and especially at a time when there is not much credit to go around, it's hard for these countries to take on loans, oftentimes overpromise and underdeliver.

When it comes time to run for re-election, they oftentimes get punished by voters. I think Esteban raised a good point about the culture wars and the role they played in some of these elections. It's hard to paint with a broad brush when it comes to leftists in Latin America because the countries are very different but I do think we see in many cases that the left has been more forward-leaning on issues such as reproductive rights and same-sex marriage. In doing so, I think they have carved out a generational segment of the election that resonates more with those issues or is more progressive on those issues.

Brian Lehrer: Before we take our next caller and listeners, if you have ties to any Latin American country, you can call up in this segment and talk with Ernesto Londoño from the New York Times. His article, Leftists Are Ascendant in Latin America as Key Elections Loom. Before we got to our next caller, who's going to be Manuel with connections to Venezuela, there was a kind of similar article on Al-Jazeera that put this in a global context quoting somebody who said, "Latin America is so influential in the imagination of progressives around the world. It will be a bit different in every country, but it will be interesting to see what emerges." I don't know if we would call this a moment in the United States where leftists are ascendant. There is certainly a strong, progressive movement right now, but there's also a strong, progressive right-wing movement.

People are anticipating that if historical election patterns hold true, the Republicans are going to take both houses of Congress this year, perhaps in this country. That may be because of structural bias that makes our congressional outcomes less than democratic, but that's another show. How would you relate what's going on in Latin America with the rise of leftist politics there in presidential elections to what you know from this country or anywhere else in the world right now? I think what we've been reporting mostly since around the rise of Trump is all these right-wing authoritarians on the rise in Turkey, and Hungary, and the Philippines, and Brazil, and other countries we could name.

Ernesto Londoño: I have two thoughts on that. On the one hand, I think some of the alternatives that have emerged on the right of the political spectrum are so extreme in the eyes of voters that they've made it easier for leftists to get elected. I think that was certainly the case in Chile and in Brazil. If President Bolsonaro fails to get re-elected, as polls would now suggest, I think we'd see a similar trend where voters felt that the pendulum swung too far to the right in terms of the figures who are at the front lines of politics on that side of the spectrum and that moderates aren't really getting much traction. I think the other thing we're seeing globally that might tell us why voters are more receptive to the messages of politicians on the left is what we've seen over the pandemic, which has been that inequality has been amplified, and it's a lot clearer for people to perceive the impact it has on their lives.

I think you can't generalize, but I think, generally speaking, the left has been better able to articulate a vision for how to reduce inequality and how to address people's needs when it comes to access to healthcare, when it comes to pension reform, when it comes to better education. The left speaks of expanded services and covering more people under a safety net. Whereas Conservative politicians, I don't think have really tended to beat that drum. At a time when so many lives have been disrupted and for so many people have seen their ability to put food on the table compromised, I think it's very appealing to sway to a politician who was promising that they're going to take action to make your life better.

Brian Lehrer: Which is what President Biden here is trying to do with his Build Back Better plan, which, of course, is running into resistance in Congress enough to stifle it, at least for now. Do you think that the leftists of Latin America are bellwethers for the rest of the world?

Ernesto Londoño: I would hate to generalize. I think what we're seeing mainly is an anti-incumbent swing. I think in many of these countries, what we saw before these elections was grassroots movements, waves of demonstrations that showed us just how fed up people were, how angry electorates were. Then we saw that leftists were better able to tap on that anger and to connect with those voters. To the extent that we're seeing the same sense of frustration, the same sense of distrust and faith in the government and in the traditional political parties to deliver, then we may well see a wider shift to the left across the world, but I wouldn't be surprised if we find ourselves talking in four years and the pendulum has swung in the other direction, and it is the far right that has been able to successfully create a narrative about the failures of the left.

Brian Lehrer: Manuel in Wesley Hills. You're on WNYC. Hi, Manuel.

Manuel: Good morning, Brian. How are you today? I would like your guest to explain the photo of San Pablo, but doesn't mean that the people have an idea what happened with that. Also, I'm from Venezuela who live here for many years, I'm proud to be an American too. The problem is when [unintelligible 00:20:17] come in power, he sold the people the left-wing democratic system, which he call about social equality for everybody in a position of social hierarchy, but at the end ended to be a disaster, social, political, economical disaster in Venezuela, which now they have almost 6 million people out of the country. The problem like Mexico, Peru, and Chile, and Honduras, are going through that same channel which people sell equality for everybody. I just want to say that Margaret Thatcher was very clear about socialism when she quote, "The problem with socialism is not that you eventually run out other people's money." Thank you, Brian.

Brian Lehrer: Thank you very much. I'm going to go right onto another caller who's got ties to Mexico, which is a very interesting story in the context that we're discussing because Mexico, I think, started the current wave of electing more progressive or more leftist presidents with Obrador also known as AMLO. Greg and Chelsea, you are on WNYC. Hi, Greg.

Greg: Good morning. I just got back from Mexico and I've probably traveled there about 15 times in the past 20 years. I'm a leftist political activist here in New York. I just wanted to mention that it felt so heartwarming to be in Mexico at this time because they don't have a Joe Manchin. They've got at least 60 or 65% of the population that strongly supports a president who's leading a conversation about women's rights, indigenous rights. The minimum wage has practically tripled in the past three years. It's a significant increase in services for poor people.

What's so shocking was that it seems like the media sources and the types of information that people believe are just as radicalized there as they are here. I was lucky to be at a party in Puebla where it was just about 15 of us, and they were mostly upper-class Mexican people, but one woman was the sister-in-law of the president. It was very clear that nobody knew what her relation was. She was the only person there who strongly supports the president. It was a fascinating time. All over the country, you see murals that support women in indigenous culture. It was a really wonderful thing to put things into perspective. Perhaps the economic disparities and the corruption had gotten so severe in Mexico that it was just a natural progression to start giving poor people and minorities more rights and services. Perhaps that's the direction that we're going to, and we won't have to deal with a 50/50 Senate that doesn't proportionally represent us.

Brian Lehrer: Greg, thank you very much. Talk about AMLO three years or so now into his term. Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, to be more complete about his name. You heard Greg's call and his experience in Mexico.

Ernesto Londoño: Sure. AMLO definitely remains a very popular leader. He has a strong base, but I would point out that his party suffered a pretty significant setback in legislative elections last year. That will make it harder for him to make good on his vision of transforming the country. Like many leaders who got elected in the last few years, I think he and his administration have been in crisis mode during the pandemic. They haven't really had breathing room to take on big initiatives and to see through big projects. If we're already seeing his hands getting tied by what's happening politically and by the message voters are sending, it will make it harder for him to deliver in fundamental ways to really change the way the country runs.

Brian Lehrer: Bolsonaro in Brazil, in power, after the famous leftist president, Lula da Silva. Lula had his problems, but Bolsonaro, widely seen as the Brazilian Donald Trump, now they have an election coming up. What's the pendulum like there?

Ernesto Londoño: I think Brazil is the clearest example of a really dramatic swing in the pendulum. You had the workers' party, which is led by Lula, a leftist buyer brand, that was in power for 13 years. He had two consecutive terms. Then his handpicked successor Dilma Rousseff was elected for two consecutive terms. She was impeached at a time when the elector was furious at a corruption scandal that tainted both of them. Lula later went to jail. It looked like his political career was over. Voters elected Bolsonaro, I think to a large extent to send a very clear message that they were very frustrated with the way the left had governed, and especially how brazen corruption became on their watch. Three years into the Bolsonaro era, I think voters are desperate to go back in the opposite direction and have forgiven Lula his sin or his perceived sins in the minds of voters.

He is the runaway favorite to be elected later this year. He's been successful in battling his legal cases. He got out of prison. The court rulings have all gone in his favor. He's been the best position politician to tell Brazilians that have been grappling with hunger, with poverty, what they want to hear, which is that once again, if they trust him with their votes, their life will get better.

Brian Lehrer: One more call. This also relates back to the United States but in a different way than I think we've heard before in this conversation. Dominic in the Bronx, you're on WNYC. Hi, Dominic.

Dominic: Hi, Brian. I guess, in general, my concern, it's not so much a question but more like a comment question is when the United States is going to once again intervene in these Latin American countries. The writer is correct that there's going to be a right-wing surge in about four years in these places but make no mistakes that's because--

Brian Lehrer: He said there may be. Go ahead.

Dominic: You're right. He did say maybe. I'm sure there will be because if we look at the history of the United States as intervention in Latin America and other countries around the world, we see it again and again. When US business interests are threatened, the CIA and other government agencies go in and they undermine the people's will. That money that people-- Especially in Venezuela, they're worried about other people's money. That money comes from the working class. As we see here in the United States, it's given directly to the power elite.

How many more billionaires have we seen in the United States in just a couple of years, especially during a pandemic? My biggest concern is what can the people do to make sure that their will is respected? If it means electing leftist-- When Allende was assassinated in 1973, he was assassinated because he threatened to socialize the natural resources of that country.

Brian Lehrer: That's right. As we run out of time, Ernesto, your article does say the left's gains in Latin America could buoy China and undermine the United States as they compete for regional influence. History would suggest, as Dominic's call indicates, that the United States may not take an ascendancy of leftist elected politicians in Latin America sitting down. Are they worried about that kind of thing around the region?

Ernesto Londoño: Definitely. I think both Republican and Democrats have long been concerned about China's concerted effort to build more influence in the region. China has been for years on an investment spree in the region, building up critical infrastructure, including communications infrastructure, building ports, and effectively building a region that will make it easier for China to import commodities out of Latin America at a better price. I do think that if the relationship between the United States and China becomes more tense or goes on a war footing sometime in the near future, the countries in this region may have a stark choice to make in terms of who they're going to be aligned with. I think it's fair to say China has been, for a couple of decades now, trying to shift a region that historically has tended to be US-facing to be increasingly dependent and in sync with China and the Chinese economy and Chinese supply chain.

Brian Lehrer: Then the additional question will be, depending on who the US president is, will we respect the outcomes of democratic elections in Latin America, or will we stage more coups like the US has been involved with in the past as the caller reminds us? Ernesto Londoño, New York Times Brazil bureau chief. His new article is about leftist ascendant in presidential elections around Latin America. Thank you so much. Really great to have you.

Ernesto Londoño: Thanks so much, Brian.

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