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Governor Cuomo: Restaurants are opened on Valentine's Day. You could make a reservation now or plan dinner on Valentine's Day. You propose on Valentine's Day and then you can have the wedding ceremony March 15th, up to 150 people.

Brian Lehrer: That was Governor Cuomo in a news conference last month announcing that indoor dining is set to reopen at 25% capacity by Valentine's Day. The date got pushed up and now indoor dining is set to reopen in the city tomorrow, Friday, two days before Valentine's Day. Other states are also loosening restrictions this month. New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy raised indoor dining and business capacity from 25% to 35% and lifted the 10:00 PM business curfew.

Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker is also raising restaurant capacity from 25% to 40%. Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer allowed indoor dining to resume at 25%. Idaho Governor Brad Little increased limits on indoor gatherings from 10 people to 50 people.

The argument for loosening restrictions at this moment goes, cases are trending down so it's time to turn to business. Many public health officials and epidemiologists worry that governors are jumping the gun given the new, more contagious variants now circulating among the population. Dr. Luciana Borio an infectious disease physician who was a member of the Biden-Harris transition teams COVID-19 advisory board, put it bluntly at a congressional hearing on February 3rd, saying she fears the worst is still yet to come.

Dr. Luciana Borio: The situation is dire and I fear that our worst days could be ahead, given the variants that emerged recently in the UK, South Africa and Brazil, and have spread globally.

Brian Lehrer: My next guest talked to 10 scientists about this question asking could things really get that bad if we loosen restrictions on indoor activities? Caroline Chen is a healthcare reporter at ProPublica. Her latest piece is Why Opening Restaurants Is Exactly What The Coronavirus Wants Us To Do. Hi, Caroline. Welcome back to WNYC.

Caroline Chen: Thanks so much for having me on again.

Brian Lehrer: Let me actually start by asking you about the restaurant workers you talk to who said this is not a fair choice. Why should they have to choose between making a living and possibly getting sick or even spreading the disease versus going broke and not spreading the disease? What do they see is the solution?

Caroline Chen: That's a great question. Actually, I talked to more than appeared in the latest story that I wrote. I really feel for restaurant workers. There was one that I talked to who was laid off early in the pandemic from the Steakhouse that he worked at. We'll get into all that the epidemiologist told me, but he said to me, that he totally understands the science but then he said, who's going to pay the bills. He said, in order to do what the epidemiologist want to get done, you can only do that with policies to support the people and make it worth their while to do so.

He told me, he's home with a three-year-old and his daycare was shut for a while and then open and then shut. Finally, his daycare is open again so he's back job hunting now. He said that he's really, really scared of getting COVID. If he was offered a job right now, that put him indoors in an indoor dining situation, he said, "I would have to take it." He has no choice. He would double mask and go to work.

I talked to another restaurant worker in New York City, who's not in this piece, actually and she gave me this perspective that, for restaurant owners, it's not that they're not concerned about an outbreak. It's not that they're not concerned about their staff, or even their guests. It's just that right now, all they can see is can I stay afloat? That's the only thing on their mind and it's all-consuming. Can I pay the bills? Can I keep my restaurant open?

It's hard for them to think about a bigger picture question like, "Are we going to go into another surge? How do I have to consider the variance," which is what the public health experts are thinking about, which I'm talking to? I have just so much hurt for what the restaurant industry is going through when they don't have the support to make choices.

Brian Lehrer: Listeners, we're going to open our phones in this segment, for people who work in the restaurant industry, maybe as a cook, maybe as a waitperson, maybe as a busser or in any other position. How are you feeling about indoor dining, resuming tomorrow at 25% capacity in New York going up in New Jersey from 25% to 35%? 646-435-7280, 646-435-7280. Have you been able to get vaccinated since you officially became eligible in New York, for example, last week and is that a relief?

Or if you haven't managed to get an appointment are you frustrated that you weren't given enough time to get vaccinated before these changes were made so much waiting time? 646-435-7280 or maybe you're relieved about indoor dining, more tables, more tips, less trips out to the cold patio for outdoor dining.

If you work in the restaurant industry, and your restaurant is starting indoor dining tomorrow in New York or expanding it in New Jersey, call in and tell us about what you're thinking or if you have any questions for my guest, healthcare reporter for ProPublica Caroline Chen. 646-435-7280.

Caroline, on the data regarding Coronavirus spread inside restaurants, New York's plan is to reopen as I said at 25%. That's pretty low capacity and so it would seem to offer the possibility except in very small places of social distancing. What are the studies showing now about indicating that the spread does or doesn't happen at such low capacity? It's certainly easy to find restaurant owners who would call in and say it's not happening in my place. We just follow the protocols.

Caroline Chen: I think just to back up one step here, where I started with this piece actually it wasn't on restaurants. Where I started with this piece was, where are we on these variants that I'm still worried about and what visibility do we have on them, and how concerned should we be? All the scientists that I talked to said, we're at this very special moment. Some of them called it, a very special moment, a unique moment in the pandemic. Some of them said, we're at the most dangerous moment we've ever been in the pandemic. One of them called it an inflection point.

Basically, what they said is, we're at a crossroads where as since cases are coming down, and vaccines are just starting, we have a choice, where we can really push the curve down for once and for all, or we can keep doing the roller coaster that we've been doing, where we go up into a surge, we come back down, we go up into another surge, we come back down. The wild card here is the variance, which is we go into the next surge, which is variant field.

What we do know about, to answer your question, about the way the virus spreads is that it does like the indoors. The difference about restaurants is that you don't have the benefit of masking what you're eating indoors. The X factor of B117 is that it is 50% more transmissible. What that really means is like in a normal case, where potentially, I'm just giving you made up numbers here, where one person would spread to two people, given they're in a certain room for an hour and let's say without a mask, instead, in this case, it would spread to three people because it's 50% more transmissible.

This is the moment where we really want to keep transmission low because vaccine spreads coverage is not high enough yet, and we don't want to give B117 enough chance to spread. Restaurants in indoors spaces have been shown in so many studies to be in the highest risk category of spread. I know there's a lot that I packed into there but I hope that starts to answer your question as to why there has been this focus on indoor settings, particularly without masks.

Brian Lehrer: Thank you. Adwell in Manhattan, you're on WNYC. Hello, Adwell.

Adwell: Hi, how are you?

Brian Lehrer: Good. You manage a restaurant, I see.

Adwell: Yes, I work in Uptown for the Washington but it's a takeout restaurant. We have a sitting spot but after pandemic we don't open that yet. I tried to open for full table, then I stopped because there are too many regulations. People come here to sit down for 15 minutes break. This is not like a [unintelligible 00:09:30] restaurant it's like a subway restaurant. They come in for 15 minutes. They don't want to write down their information all those things [unintelligible 00:09:39] close again [unintelligible 00:09:40] sitting down inside [unintelligible 00:09:43]

Now if they open again, we're going to do that, we're going to open food table and [unintelligible 00:09:51]. I have a bigger space but we are qualified for that, for which is 25%. We're going to do a little better than before and I hope.

Brian Lehrer: I hope you can do that. How will you protect your workers who deal with the public who are eating without masks?

Adwell: With the masks all day, we are 24. We the mask all day, day time, it's fine. After 12 it's the time people get in. We have to [unintelligible 00:10:28]. We push them. We provide the mask to them. That is another thing. We have [unintelligible 00:10:33]. Can you take that? Can you take the mask? Can you wear it, please. They does that. Most of the people are nice. They take the mask and they wear unless [unintelligible 00:10:47]

Brian Lehrer: When they're not actually putting food in their mouth.

Adwell: Yes.

Brian Lehrer: When they're talking to the server do they wear the mask? Is that the rule?

Adwell: Yes. That is the rule.

Brian Lehrer: That is the rule of law. Adwell, thank you so much. We really appreciate it. Caroline, I want to go to another level here of reopening because the governor also said in his news conference, that we're moving in a lot of places to a reopening with testing model in New York State. As an example, he said that worked at the Buffalo Bills playoff game where they tried this experiment of allowing 7,000 people in, but they all had to be tested before they entered the stadium.

Apparently, nobody got coronavirus. At least they haven't traced any cases back to that game, was outdoors. Based on that, now they're going to open the Buckley Center for the Nets and other things there and Madison Square Garden for the Knicks and Rangers and other things starting February 23rd. For the baseball stadiums when that season starts, all the governor says at 10% capacity, and with testing required beforehand. He hopes this can apply to concerts and other entertainment in very large venues where people can spread out enough.

Can you talk about the pros and cons of that model very briefly?

Caroline Chen: Yes. I'd have to look very closely at that and I will caveat that I'm not an epidemiologist here. I think the main thing that is nice to go towards is outdoor situations, I think that makes a big difference. We know that this virus particularly likes indoor situations. Being outdoors makes a huge difference.

Now, I think, with test the one thing that we have to remember is that no test is infallible. There are differences between different tests and there's also differences between how often you test. Really, honestly, the devil is in the details here. It's hard for me to just say, "Testing, therefore 100%. You're great here," because we know there can always be false negatives with the test, the quality of the test matter. I'd be really interested to look deeper into the governor's plans and maybe talk to you about that more.

Brian Lehrer: That would be great after you do that. In fact, we had a caller on the show this week who said that he and his fiance had a seven-person wedding recently and everyone got a negative test beforehand, it was required, but they still all got COVID at the wedding, they believe because of the delay between when you get the negative test and one more exposure to somebody who they later learned was positive before the wedding. That system is not foolproof. It can have holes.

Let's get one more caller in here. Chad, who works as a restaurant server in Manhattan. You're on WNYC. Hi, Chad.

Chad: Hi, good morning. How are you?

Brian Lehrer: Good. What do you got?

Chad: I've been a server and working since pandemic started in Manhattan. We've started with outdoor dining, then we open inside and closed. That's all great. I understand and I have to make a living and support my family. As hospitality people the thing that I want to express is that our job is to pamper and take care of the guests that come in. To babysit them and to be bad guys and tell people to put their mask on when they get up or to not break the rules. We have to be great because we can't be bad guys. That's in our DNA as hospitality people.

I want to express that the law and all these safety precautions have to come from way up like the governor and the mayor. I have a saying that we say that as a server we want to say no to a guest. We always [unintelligible 00:14:50] people tip us but we send a manager over when we ever have bad news because we don't want to be the bad guys. The lawmakers have to be the bad guys here. I'm sorry. It's disgusting that people get up and it's really stressing.

It's taxing to be bad guys and babysit guests who want to come in and have a good time and they deserve to and we want to give that to them. We need to be safe too and that's the scary part of all this is that once we're inside these doors, we want to do the best we can to give everyone the best experience they can and that's how it is.

Brian Lehrer: You need the rules to be very clear, from above so you don't come off as the bad guy saying, "Put on your mask, please, if you're going to the bathroom," that kind of thing? Chad, we hear you. Thank you very much. Please follow up with us. Caroline, we have one minute left. I just want to mention that you talked to at least one epidemiologist the senior article, who was relatively optimistic. Even with the loosening of business restrictions, she thought the new variants could lead to a new wave, but that it's not certain and maybe even unlikely.

Let's finish with that point of view. What do you say?

Caroline Chen: Dr. Caitlin Rivers at Johns Hopkins, has been really one of the leading voices here. I would say she was the most optimistic out of the multiple scientists that I talked to in say that, she's hopeful that because we're a little behind the UK, in terms of when B117 is creeping up in the US. She does think that it's likely we will have a surge in March, that is very fueled. But because of the timing of that, and the fact that we'll have more vaccine coverage, that it may not be as bad as some think.

However, she did also say that now is the time to not keep opening up because she said, when you create the conditions that we've done before that led to previous surges, you're just going to get the same results again.

Brian Lehrer: Caroline Chen, healthcare reporter for ProPublica. Her latest piece is Why Opening Restaurants Is Exactly What The Coronavirus Wants Us To Do. Caroline, thanks as always.

Caroline Chen: Thank you so much.

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