Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer on WNYC. One of the biggest Coronavirus decisions that many people have had to confront themselves with around here, to take or not to take the subway. Since March, riders have rerouted their commutes, packed their rubber gloves, avoided peak rush hour times, or in most cases, stop taking the trains altogether if they have a choice and yet, an analysis of data on public transit ridership and COVID-19 infections in multiple cities over the past three months shows no correlation with the rise or fall of Coronavirus cases. Instead, dining indoors, and going to offices in gyms appear to be much bigger risk factors than taking the trains. Now, this comes from a recent report by the American Public Transportation Association that concludes mass transit is actually not a major spreader of COVID-19. Joining me now is author of the report, Sam Schwartz. You may know him as Gridlock Sam in the daily news, former New York City traffic commissioner, president and CEO of Sam Schwartz Engineering, a transportation planning, and engineering firm and author of the book, No One at the Wheel: Driverless Cars and the Road of the Future. I'm also joined by Professor Stephen Morse, Virologist and Epidemiologist at the Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, who has looked at the study independently for the sake of this show, Sam Schwartz and Stephen Morse. Welcome back to WNYC.

Sam Schwartz: Thank you.

Brian Lehrer: Sam. What are your top-line conclusions for the disbelievers out there? I admit that I'm a skeptic but go ahead.

Sam Schwartz: We conducted a review of scientific literature from around the world and places where they've done tracing such as Paris, Vienna, throughout Japan, Hong Kong, and they have found zero clusters in thousands of cases that they have traced. When we look even in New York City, and we've done some of our own research, you find places like Staten Island have higher case rates than Astoria that has much higher transit usage. This goes back even to the early part of the epidemic and in New York state, every one of the suburbs around New York City has higher case rates than New York City. When we look a little deeper, it's not the way people traveled. It's what they did when they got wherever they were going. In the beginning, the people that were traveling, the largely essential workers, and essential workers had higher case rates, and essential workers also tend to be lower-income people and people of color. Those groups got hit much harder than any other group. We found really no correlation.

Brian Lehrer: Go ahead.

Sam Schwartz: I think the great disservice were largely economists that came out with studies saying that the subway's seeded the virus and the spread. It was the fundamental mistake that you learn in statistics 101 when you're shown a graph that shows that drownings peak when ice cream consumption peaks, they both peak in the summer. New York got hit first, New York has a subway, the conclusions looked to be wrong.

Brian Lehrer: What about subway workers' rates?

Sam Schwartz: There is a report that's coming out, I expect in the next week or two, but when I looked at subway worker rates, they're about the same as other essential workers. There is a difference between being a subway passenger for a short term, and being a worker who's there for 8 or 10 hours. Time is clearly a factor and the transmission, the more time that you spend with an infected individual or an infected environment, the more likely you will contract the virus. I'm awaiting that report but right now, when I look at the statistics, I signed subway workers along with other essential workers have about the same rate of infection and sadly, the same fatality rate.

Brian Lehrer: Professor Morse, when you look at this study as an epidemiologist, to assess how valid it is, how reliable it is, all those social science terms, the study points to several factors that could cause a low subway transmission rate, for example, less crowding on the subway these days, because people are avoiding it. Mass compliance on the subway has been very high from what I understand in New York. In some of the other cities that have been studied, also airflow on subway cars is relatively good compared to other indoor spaces. I'm curious if you looked at those particular factors in how much, from an epidemiological study standpoint, they can be isolated and teased out as protective factors.

Stephen Morse: We have looked at those and it's really very hard to separate them out. We all know, of course, that it's safer to be outdoors. If you're indoors, good ventilation is much safer, but how much masks, social distancing, or physical distancing, and ventilation each contribute to protection. They're each part of the prevention package, but how much they each contribute is hard to say. Masks obviously are very important from those examples. We have demonstrations, for example, where most people were wearing masks and yet there was no increase in transmission being outside. Good ventilation indoors is clearly very important. One of the difficult things has been teasing out each of those factors, but I think it is somewhat reassuring to know that in a place like the subway, there is very good ventilation. Most people are wearing masks. Of course, one of the things that had initially been a concern was the inability to do real distancing but I think that, although the evidence is obviously very hard to tease out, there are good suggestions from the epidemiology that Sam referred to that in fact, when you try to trace it back, I think that's the most convincing evidence. You really can't find clear association with the subway or mass transit as a risk. That's probably the clearest evidence because the others really have to be inferred from what you can figure out. Of course, there are many other places you can be exposed.

Brian Lehrer: This is the source of my biggest skepticism about what the study actually implies for what people should do or should feel safe doing, going forward. Professor Morse, you mentioned the lack of crowding on the subways right now. Can this data from various cities tell us that if everybody were to say, "Oh cool, these studies show that there's not a lot of coronavirus transmission in the subways," and everybody goes back to riding the trains in rush hour like we did before, then we're going to be standing nose to nose or a mask to mask with our fellow riders. Then what happens? Does the data indicate professor Morse?

Stephen Morse: Well, it's very hard to say that, the correlations and most of the

studies in that report done earlier, which obviously tried to show a correlation between subway ridership and risk, which I think was very flawed in a number of ways. This study, which is more clearly goes much deeper and collect much more information in detail. I don't think we should be complacent, but it does seem to indicate that even as ridership increases, there is still not the expected increased risk. That probably does have to do much more with the other precautions that people continue to take. We shouldn't get complacent about it because distancing certainly would be a helpful thing. It may not be absolutely essential. We simply don't know. We would like to have it. We don't know what's going to happen during rush hour, but in other cities like Tokyo, for example, they have managed even with high density to keep them the subways quite safe. That suggests that it can be done if people are very careful, even in the absence of what we would like to see, which has additionally social distancing, but mask, all the other hygiene measures, obviously, do play a role and if you're careful, they may be enough, although they're not ideal.

Brian Lehrer: Sam, I'm going to ask you the same question in a second. I just want to invite our listeners in. Do you have a question for our guests about the safety of riding mass transit right now? As Sam Schwartz, on behalf of the American Public Transportation Association, has looked at data from multiple cities and concluded that there has not been much of a correlation with upticks and Coronavirus cases from people using mass transit, like subways. 646-435-7280, 646-435-7280 with your questions about mass transit and Coronavirus safety for Sam Schwartz, and Stephen Morse, Virologist and Epidemiologist at Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health, who's looking at this study with independent eyes. 646-435-7280 or tweet a question @BrianLehrer. Sam, I wonder if based on Professor Morse's answer, which indicates we don't really know what will happen if it gets really crowded down there again. There seems to potentially be this seesaw where, as reported in The Times just in the last day, crime is going up in the subways because it's more empty. I guess people feel more that they can get away with things but Coronavirus is low. Maybe if we go back to normal, the crime goes down, but the COVID transmission goes up. I don't know, but how confident are you based on the data that you've looked at during low ridership periods that the same one pertaining high ridership periods?

Sam Schwartz: I think Dr. Morse referred to some other places that are experiencing high ridership. Hong Kong has been in the 70s or even 80% ridership with no outbreaks. Tokyo, Seoul, Singapore, even Paris has been over 50%. In New York City, we're at about 30%, we've got a long way to go before we're even close to what we saw prior to the epidemic. People are predicting 50% sometime in early 2021. We have a long way to go but the alternatives and The Times had an earlier article talking about how the car has saved LA. We know that that's not true anymore. Your alternative of going into the car is not a great alternative. Prior to the epidemic, you were 20 times more likely to be in a fatal crash taking a car on a per-mile basis than the subway. Well, car fatalities have soared just like crime in the subway. We really need a psychologist to study this outcome of behavior but there's been about a 90% increase in the rate of crashes involving motorcycles and cars, in which there have been fatalities, either drivers, occupants or riders.

Brian Lehrer: Interesting.

Stephen Morse: This is exactly what happened after 911 when people were afraid to fly. They drove instead and there was an increase in automobile fatalities.

Brian Lehrer: Let's take a phone call. Barbara in the Bronx, you're on WNYC. Hi, Barbara.

Barbara: Hi, Barbara calling from the Bronx. How you doing? Thanks for taking my call. I had heard in the early weeks of the pandemic, there was a figure being cited floating around about the transmission of flu in the subway, from an earlier year not from this year. It was pretty low, like 2, 3, 4%. That really comforted me as a subway rider. I just wondered, if your guests knew about that study and now, as the months have passed, we have a lot more evidence about how Corona is transmitted. Is that something that we should still be thinking about? Thank you.

Brian Lehrer: Thank you. Who wants it? [crosstalk]

Brian Lehrer: You both want it. Sam Schwartz, you can go first.

Sam Schwartz: Okay. There was a study and if I recall then back in 2011, 2012 was a model and it sounds slow transmission was probably in the subway somewhere in the 4% range, as Barbara mentioned. Professor Morse can probably answer that better.

Stephen Morse: No, I think that that's a good answer. I think that the transmission of flu, this is a little more transmissible than flu, perhaps somewhat more but in fact, that's a good parallel, I think. We know that we don't see flu in the summer in New York except during the 2009 pandemic and other unusual times, because we all ride the subway, we're all together and we don't see flu. I think there is good evidence that there isn't that much flu transmission in the subway. With masks, we're all much safer. There's a lot of evidence, although most of it is of course, anecdotal of situations where people wore masks. A famous case with hairdressers who were infected wearing masks, and their clients did not become sick. I think there is good evidence that masks do make a difference, good ventilation does make a difference. The subways are probably safer than we give them credit for. I think one of the problems is we've been very afraid of them and the truth is that we have perhaps overemphasized their concern about that. On the other hand, we should not ever get complacent about those precautions we're taking.

Brian Lehrer: Johnny in Brooklyn, you're on WNYC. Hi, Johnny.

Johnny: Hi, how are you?

Brian Lehrer: Good. Thanks. What's your question?

Johnny: Yes. I just want to say that many NYC buses are full of people, I wish they can have some kind of regulation, where there's a certain number of people should be in the bus. Also some elevators, they don't have any regulation to how many people should be in the elevator. That's creating a lot sickness as well.

Brian Lehrer: Johnny, thank you. Two good questions, Sam Schwartz, we've been talking about the subways as a distinct thing. What about buses?

Sam Schwartz: Yes, buses actually got peaked at well over 50% during May and June. Again, we didn't see any outbreaks over result of buses but there is a critical point over here, and that is that we have to maintain a high level of service to keep the density down in buses and in subways. We need the revenue and we're not getting that revenue from Washington. In fact, Brian, I just came across a federal grants for studying COVID and transit, $10 million and New York city is ineligible, because it's an anarchy city. We need help studying this and we need help maintaining our transit system to keep the density low, at least for now. Until we get a vaccine.

Brian Lehrer: Professor Morse, Johnny's other question was about elevators and this could pertain to buildings too. I know in my apartment building, for example, and others of friends and family, who I know, there's usually a one-family-per-ride restriction on elevators. Not so, in the subway elevators.

Stephen Morse: Yes, and of course, those are larger but that is a problem because in part, all of these indoor spaces, we have some correlations, but we don't really fully understand what exactly we mean by being safe there. I think you should take the same precautions. I think that if I were taking an elevator like the one at 168th Street, I would probably wait for a couple of elevators to go by to reduce the density. There's no rule that actually says that's the case, the riding time is fairly short. Your exposure time is probably fairly short, that could make a difference, if you maintain some distance and are wearing a mask and taking the other precautions. We simply just don't have enough knowledge at this point from data to know whether that's safe, but it looks from the information we have so far, that that's probably going to be fairly safe, but I'd still want to be cautious. We do the same in our apartment buildings, too. We're taking basically elevators by one family at a time and letting them go by but it is harder to do in public places.

Brian Lehrer: Oh look, we're getting a call from Hong Kong. That's a first for this show. Owen in Hong Kong, you're on WNYC. Hello, from New York.

Owen: Hello, from Hong Kong. Good evening from Hong Kong.

Stephen Morse: Hello.

Brian Lehrer: Indeed. Thanks for calling in. To what do I owe the pleasure?

Owen: Well, I just tuned in, as I do sometimes to WNYC, as a former New Yorker and I just heard the conversation and I figured, I'd say something about mass transit and the COVID and life in other places to just give you a perspective. Yes, that's why I called in. I just want to say that mass transit has not been a problem in Hong Kong since the beginning of COVID and granted, it hasn't been as bad here as in other places, but trains are packed, people are riding them and it's just not a problem to the extent that there are traceable cases and there have been, especially in the last couple of months now we're back in a good place, but it has been bad for Hong Kong  

starting in July and so on. People never stop riding the train and it's all about being careful, mask, cleaning your hands, sanitizing your hands, et cetera, that's it, there's no magic to it. People shouldn't be afraid.

Brian Lehrer: Owen, can I ask what the public conversation is like there compared to here? You're telling me that there's not nearly as much public fear and people are riding the subways in Hong Kong and there isn't a lot of transmission, are people as, while we're having this conversation as something the premise of which is, "Wait, what really? You mean it's not so dangerous to ride the subways?" Is there the same starting point in Hong Kong?

Owen: I don't think there's much of a conversation about it here because, maybe it's a combination of people not having that many other options. I mean, people have to go to work, we know, I mean schools are closed much of the time, but let's say work. A lot of people never stopped going to work. Well, I shouldn't say never, but most of the time and so not riding the subway was not an option but also, as I said earlier, there was never a proven case or a sense that the subway was where people contracted the infection. There are other obvious places and cases where people get it, but the subway, I mean just no one, it was never a topic. It was never, it was a [inaudible 00:22:41] for the conversation.

Brian Lehrer: Owen, thank you so much for that context from Hong Kong, we really appreciate it, thank you. We are finishing up with Sam Schwartz, also known as Gridlock Sam in The Daily News and author of the book, No One at the Wheel: Driverless Cars and the Road of the future, who has on behalf of the American Public Transportation Association, help look at and release findings on data from around the world on transmission of COVID-19 in the subways and this literature review concludes not very much at all. We've been getting independent eyes on this literature review from Stephen Morse, Virologist and Epidemiologist at the Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health. Before you go, Professor Morse, just a few things to button up this whole hour, this segment and the last segment about Borough Park and other Hasidic neighborhoods, from a pure COVID risk standpoint, Sam's report makes the case that the virus has spread more from person to person than surface to surface to person or person to surface to person, which is one of the things people are afraid of in the subways, touching subway poles, or leaning your head back on a seat or the railings, I watched President Trump go down the stairways of outside these helicopters and outside these buildings and he's holding the railing and I'm thinking somebody go with your alcohol and spray that railing, but does that jive with your understanding of this virus anymore or has that been debunked?

Stephen Morse: No, I think that that's largely the view. The question is exactly what type of particles, whether they're fine particle aerosols that can transmit, or these very that can transmit more efficiently than we think, or whether it's larger droplets, but it is essentially by the respiring story route and when you're getting it from surfaces, it's probably the result of touching a contaminated surface and then touching your face because the virus gets in through the eyes, the nose or the mouth and so essentially it's easier to breathe it in than to get it other ways. If you observe very careful hand hygiene as we call it, washing your hands or using hand sanitizer,

that will prompt before touching your face, I think and also after taking off your mask, I think that will prevent most of the transmission, if not all of it from surfaces, there may be a little bit that wafts up, but I think that's probably very rare from what we know.

Brian Lehrer: Last thing, in our previous segment, we were talking about the city enforcing no big protest gatherings even outdoors right now with the spike in transmission that we've seen, especially in some of the more Hasidic populated neighborhoods of the city and yet the evidence seems to indicate that if people are outdoors, like from the protest during the summer, there is not very much transmission if any, what's your take on that?

Stephen Morse: Well, outdoors certainly helps and we're still trying to tease out the various factors, or separate the various factors that were involved in those protests, because there was no apparent increase after that but a number of people were wearing masks as well as being outdoors and that may have made a big difference as well. The fact that they were careful to some degree, most of the people were wearing masks, I think that probably also made a big difference because we have seen other gatherings where there has been transmission, even though people have been possibly outdoors, although we don't know that's where the transmission occurred. Outdoors is better masked, or better still when you're outdoors.

Brian Lehrer: Yes, but if the Coronavirus can be transmitted via aerosols, that is small particles that linger in the air, and then people entering that space are at risk of getting infected by breathing them in, why doesn't that go against all the data we've been talking about, about subways? Where they can be pretty crowded and as long as people are wearing masks, people aren't getting the coronavirus. Masks are not a hundred percent, so how does this all fit together? I'm still confused.

Stephen Morse: I think we're all still learning about this. We're still not at the point where we can actually identify how much of a role each of these factors plays and certainly masks, as you say are not perfect. Part of it may also be just the fact that people may spend up to an hour on, or more depending on the train, on the subway, but in most cases, they're not there that long, there is a lot of ventilation, not only the air exchanges but opening of doors and other things that may ameliorate some of those or make help with some of those other factors.

Brian Lehrer: Steven Morse, Sam Schwartz, thank you both so much for joining. [00:28:12] [END OF AUDIO]

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