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Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer on WNYC. Early voting is underway in New Jersey for the first time ever ahead of what is still known as Election Day next Tuesday. The state is one of only two that's picking a governor, the other being Virginia. The word bellwether comes up as national political analysts look for hints about next year's midterm elections and how people vote in New Jersey and Virginia now.

For us, let's find out more about the homestretch in this local contest between the current governor, Democrat Phil Murphy, and his Republican challenger, former state legislator, Jack Ciattarelli. We are joined for this by Nancy Solomon, reporter and editor in the WNYC newsroom and host of the Ask Governor Murphy monthly call-in show here on the station. Hey, Nancy.

Nancy Solomon: Hi, Brian.

Brian Lehrer: Let me start here. There's a narrative going around that this race is tightening, that Jack Ciattarelli is gaining on the pretty popular incumbent who in the blue northeast, people thought was going to be a shoo-in. I guess the question is whether Murphy's lead is single-digit or double-digit. How do you see these polls and whether tightening is accurate or not as a word?

Nancy Solomon: I think until yesterday, over the last couple of weeks, it was really hard to know because there wasn't one of the major reputable polls out that had been done recently. Monmouth University released its poll yesterday. They've got Murphy up by 11 points, so that's just a slight decrease. He was up by 13 earlier, say August, September. I don't know how to explain the sense that the race was tightening, because certainly everyone makes that argument and that's been what's been said recently.

I think that comes from Murphy really turning on the gas as far as his campaigning goes. There have been two debates. He did well, I would say in my opinion, in the first one, and in the second one, I don't think he did as well. Then the next day they started rolling out visits by big-name Democrats and moved his chief of staff to the campaign. That, I think, signaled the people like, "Oh, the Murphy people are worried."

Brian Lehrer: If Obama came in, which he did, if Biden came in, which he did, maybe they wouldn't do that unless they thought there was some danger there, right?

Nancy Solomon: Right. I think there's also a fear that Democrats are going to take this as being one that's already in the bag and not turn out and vote. I think that's a legitimate concern for Democrats. Especially in the Democratic heavy urban areas of the state, I think it is a concern that it's an off-year election and if people feel like, oh, Murphy is going to get reelected, they may not turn out to vote. I think that also is feeding into that concern. Maybe a perception that race isn't such an easy win for Murphy maybe does help the Democrats in some sense because it signals to their voters, hey, don't--

Brian Lehrer: You better show up.

Nancy Solomon: Yes, exactly.

Brian Lehrer: New Jersey does have Republicans. Trump only got about 25% of the vote in New York City. In New Jersey, didn't he get like 40%?

Nancy Solomon: Yes. There are definitely Republicans in New Jersey, lots of them. New Jersey not that long ago was a swing state. We've talked about this before, it's been years, I think, since we've talked about it. The New Jersey Transit train lines and the Midtown direct lines particularly, that came out direct from Penn Station into the Essex County and Union in Morris County suburbs had a huge effect on New Jersey politics because you see this blue vein coming out from New York, and it really has shifted politics in the state.

There are about a million more registered Democrats than Republicans in New Jersey now, but there's a huge, huge unaffiliated group of people who outnumber members of both parties, and so that's the prize every election year. According to the Monmouth poll, Murphy is doing well with those folks.

Brian Lehrer: Listeners in New Jersey, we can take some of your phone calls, your thoughts, or questions about the homestretch of the gubernatorial race for Nancy Solomon who's covering it. 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692. Are we seeing the same partisan divide on this early voting with Democrats embracing early voting or mail-in voting, versus Republicans waiting for Election Day?

Nancy Solomon: No. Lots of folks are turning up to vote early from both parties.

Brian Lehrer: For folks who want to try out early voting but haven't figured out how yet since this is the first time for it in New Jersey, where can they get that information?

Nancy Solomon: If you just google your county name and early voting location, it comes right up. You could also go to the state Division of Elections website and they have all the locations. The way early voting is working is that there are multiple sites in every county. It's not like Election Day where you have to go to your precinct polling place. With early voting, you can go to any early voting site in your county and you can show up anytime you want. It's like regular voting day.

What's made this possible is that Murphy put money into the budget to make the polling rolls electronic to digitize them. Up till now, New Jersey couldn't handle early voting because the system wasn't digitized so they couldn't quickly know whether someone had already voted. I checked out an early voting site in Union County yesterday and folks there told me it's working great. The electronic poll register is working great and people are getting in and voting and voters are coming out very happy. They're saying, "I like this and I'm going to vote early from now on." There were no lines and so it was a good experience.

Brian Lehrer: Let's take a phone call. Mia in West New York, you're on WNYC. Hi, Mia.

Mia: Hey, good morning. I have to say as a typically registered Democrat before, I'm certainly not over the moon about Murphy and I'm certainly not over the moon about Ciattarelli but there's an interesting thing here. We've been flooded with TV commercials with Murphy saying, "If property taxes are your concern, we're not the state for you," basically. You can see however it's been edited. I'd love to know what the full clip was because, of course, that's like a red flag in front of a bull, I think, for just about anybody in New Jersey because our taxes are ridiculous.

I was just wondering if maybe your guest has any insight on that, if anybody has seen the full clip? I'd love to see what the full clip was. It's a great state to live in in many ways, but the property taxes are just ridiculous. I do care about it. It's the only thing that gives me pause when I think, "Could I vote Republican?" Then a split second later, it's like, "I don't think so." It is a big worry.

Brian Lehrer: There's an issue, yes. Mia, thank you. That commercial, I was just watching it again last night. It's a Ciattarelli commercial, it's not a Murphy commercial. It has a clip of Murphy saying, "If taxes are your main concern, New Jersey is not your state, or maybe New Jersey is not your state." Then there is an edit right there and then you see Murphy again saying this is not your state. Nancy, can you put that into context?

Nancy Solomon: Yes. I can't say that I've watched the raw tape so that I know exactly where the edits are. You asked him actually about this, Brian. Murphy says that he's being taken out of context, but it's not completely out of context. He was speaking to a business group and he was basically saying we're never going to be able to compete with low tax states and so if that's your issue, then we aren't your state. He also has responded during the debates and also on your show, Brian, saying that he has held property taxes to the lowest increase. They still go up, but he's held it to the lowest of any governor in many years.

In Chris Christie's first four years, they went up by 18% and in Murphy's first four years they went up by 4%. He also makes the argument that he has made New Jersey more affordable in all sorts of ways for its residents. Free community college for people who can't afford it, low cost, or free pre-K. He raised the millionaire's tax and put most of that money back into a tax cut for middle-class New Jerseyans. That is his answer.

I had an interesting conversation with a conservative talk radio host from Atlantic City, a guy named Harry Hurley. He said that he really respects the fact that Murphy has actually been the only guy who's ever been honest about taxes, and that instead of saying that he's going to cut taxes, he says, "Hey, our taxes are high but you get good value, you get good schools, you get good roads, you get good mass transit, you got a great location between Philadelphia and New York City, you got jobs, you got great universities." That's his answer. That is the key issue in this race. Every four years, property taxes is the key issue in a gubernatorial race. We'll see on election day how it pans out.

Brian Lehrer: Liz in Newton, you're on WNYC. Hi, Liz.

Liz: Hi. How are you?

Brian Lehrer: Good. I see you're a poll worker?

Liz: Yes. I was talked into being a poll worker by one of the older women who do it, and so I've been poll working for about four years now. I really enjoy it. Long story short, I was calling to say this electronic system that he's put in place, I did my early voting, I love the system. The people who come in, you can see the look on their face when they look at it and the skepticism but by the time they check out, they're like, "Oh, wow, this was great." I have yet to see anybody or hear from anybody. I started early voting last week and I'll be doing it again this weekend. No one has complained about this new system. I think it's a win for-- [crosstalk]

Brian Lehrer: You described it as electronic. What makes the new system new?

Liz: When you walk in the past, you would see in front of you a roll book where somebody would have to search your last name and then you sign into this roll book so there's a bunch of people, the lion share poll workers or older folks. There's time that takes just finding your name. Now it's all in a screen, we type in your name, we let you confirm your address.

We find you in the rolls, the little screen swirls around, so you sign right there in the screen. If there are issues with you as a registered person, little signals come up in the system to say, "Hey, there's a problem here," or to guide us through what the problem is. If you're not near reason or another, we can then do a provisional ballot for you. It's just quicker. It's quicker, it's easy, it's secure. We secured everything as a poll worker, so it's just a much faster easier system to use no matter how old you are.

Brian Lehrer: That's a great testimonial, Liz. Thank you very much. Hopefully, that'll encourage more people no matter how they want to vote to the polls in New Jersey between now and Tuesday. Nancy, anything you want to add on how this new system works?

Nancy Solomon: That was a great description. I think the only thing maybe left out was that this is precisely what enables early voting. That the state could not do early voting with paper rolls because they could not get in real-time whether someone had voted before. All the in-person voting before electronic rolls had to be done in one day. That's key. I think it should be said Murphy has done a pretty decent job with improving voting and democracy in New Jersey.

The 2020 election I read recently the 18 to 29-year-old group of voters had the highest turnout in New Jersey than in any state in the country. Of course, marijuana legalization was on the ballot so that probably had something to do with it. Murphy, during the pandemic, and he wasn't on the ballot but he made the vote by mail system really work for people and we had record turnout. I'm sure there are a lot of things that contributed to the record turnout in 2020, but that was, I think, an achievement of his. It's something that Barack Obama brought up on Saturday in Newark when he was stumping for him.

Brian Lehrer: All right. Since you mentioned Obama stumping on Saturday for Murphy in Newark, let's play a clip. He made fun of Ciattarelli for speaking at a stop the steel rally supposedly, according to Ciattarelli, not knowing that it was about that. Here's a little of Obama.

Obama: When you're standing in front of a sign that says stop the steal, and there's a guy in the crowd waving a Confederate flag, you know this isn't a neighborhood barbecue. You know it's not a League of Women Voters rally. Come on. Come on, man.

Brian Lehrer: Ciattarelli pushes back on attempts to tie him to Trump. Here's that moment from the first debate.

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Jack Ciattarelli: If I may, if those watching at home or playing that drinking game where you got to take a shot every time you hear Trump, I suggest they stop real soon because they're going to be bombed real soon.

Brian Lehrer: Trying to suggest that Murphy will keep trying to tie him to Trump when it's not fair. Where does Ciattarelli line up with Trump and where does he part company?

Nancy Solomon: Ciattarelli was known by statehouse reporters as being a moderate Republican in the assembly who could be counted on to understand policy and speak articulately about it. What many reporters have expressed during this year's campaign is how surprising it was how much Ciattarelli went after Trump voters during the primary, and how long it took him to pivot back to the middle or the center during the general election. I think it's widely understood that Republicans in New Jersey have a problem, that they must run to the right in the primary to win the primary, and then they've got to pivot back to the center.

I'm sure that's true all over the country but I think it's even more so true in a place like New Jersey where the Republican Party has a long tradition of moderate Republicanism. Where does he stand? I think he hasn't pivoted close to the center and some of that has to do with that the Republican Party has moved so much further to the right. For instance, traditionally, New Jersey Republicans support women's right to an abortion full on. Ciattarelli says he supports it and that he would be willing to pass a bill if Roe v Wade was overturned that would in trine it in the New Jersey Constitution.

He has all kinds of qualifiers on it that folks who fight for access to abortion say really disqualifies his statements because he puts a time restriction, he wants parental notification. He says he'll cut funding to planned parenthood, something Christie did and that Murphy reinstated that was a pretty popular thing that did to reinstate planned parenthood funding. That's where he is on abortion. He's pretty far to the right on guns. He wants to roll back. New Jersey has some of the strictest gun laws in the country and he wants to roll them back.

I think one of the funniest, most biggest zingers that happened during the first debate was that Phil Murphy said he even wants open carry for realtors, and then Ciattarelli chimed in, there are women who are in houses alone all day going with open houses and they need to protect themselves. The joke might not be coming across but that was surprising but I don't think that played well in New Jersey. He wants to roll back what Murphy has done on climate change. Oh, and he wants to readjust the school funding formulas where-- This is a supreme court case in New Jersey that shifts funding from suburbs to low-income districts, mostly urban areas because they don't have the same property tax base to fund their school.

He wants to try to change that. No one believes he can actually do it, but he's certainly advocating for it. Oh, and one more thing. Sorry, Brian. [chuckles] He also is opposed to the curriculum in schools that talks about LGBT identity and includes LGBT identity in talking about families and what families there are and all the different makeups of families. He has cast that as overly sexualized, which has been very offensive to the lesbian and gay community in New Jersey.

Brian Lehrer: You mentioned that he wants to roll back some of what Murphy did on climate change. What has Murphy done on climate change?

Nancy Solomon: It took him a couple of years to get going and environmentalists were getting increasingly exercised about it, but he actually has done quite a bit. The first thing he did was he reentered the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, which is complicated and boring to explain, but it's very important. It's a regional agreement that commits to lowering carbon emissions. It has economic effects and penalties that help the New Jersey economy when it does that. He did that. I'd say that he stopped a couple of gas pipelines that people were very upset about.

Probably the biggest thing he's done is he's really invested in wind power. The state has invested in a public-private partnership where a manufacturing plant for wind turbines, which would be adjacent to a Delaware River terminal on the southern part of the Delaware River south of Philadelphia. It's a shipping terminal in which wind turbines would be sent to states all up and down the coast. These are green jobs and they are union jobs and they are manufacturing jobs, and it boosts the ability of the state to decarbonize over the next 20 years.

Brian Lehrer: Those are some things. This is WNYC FM HD and AM New York, WNJT-FM 88 Trenton, WNJP 88.5 Sussex, WNJY 89.3 Netcong, and WNJO 90.3 Toms River. We are a New York and New Jersey public radio. A few more minutes on the New Jersey side right now with our Nancy Solomon who's covering the governor's race. Before you go, I want to put this in the national context a little bit.

That Monmouth poll that came out yesterday showing Murphy with an 11 point lead has Biden's popularity in New Jersey below 50% for the first time. Given that Biden won the state by 16 points, is Ciattarelli more popular than Trump? Is that why it's a little closer than the national election was, or is Biden costing Murphy votes potentially with his declining popularity in New Jersey?

Nancy Solomon: I'm not sure if Biden is costing Murphy votes. Is Ciattarelli more popular than Trump? Absolutely. He ticks way more boxes than Trump would have ever ticked in this state. He's a good campaigner. He's likable, he's very New Jersey, he's charismatic, he's articulate. I think he has some political gifts, and certainly, the playbook of hitting property taxes over and over and over again is a very successful tactic in New Jersey elections.

I would say I don't consider New Jersey to be a bellwether state. I feel like there are very local-specific issues going here that people are responding to. I don't see this as a referendum on Biden. I guess if it went wildly Republican this election, that would be a different matter. Given the polling and giving what people are saying and the conversations, I don't see it as a bellwether. Murphy has COVID which we haven't had a chance to talk about, but he has that in his pocket.

Brian Lehrer: Those policies.

Nancy Solomon: Yes. He's well respected for his leadership. What I'm hearing a lot is how much people liked the fact that he just went to work and dealt with a crisis and he doesn't grandstand. He doesn't have those political gifts that a Chris Christie or a Cuomo have. He just gets to work and gets it done is what people say. I think that has helped him a lot, that he came back from his own personal cancer surgery within days facing the COVID crisis, and just immediately got to work. The polling on what he did during COVID and the current polling also on mask mandates and vaccine mandates, which Ciattarelli opposes, is also helping him. That's a popular issue.

Brian Lehrer: Generally popular. Last question. With just two gubernatorial races taking place in the country right now, New Jersey and Virginia, we hear so much about Virginia being a bellwether for Biden and for the congressional midterms next year. You think New Jersey less. You're not covering Virginia so you can't say much about that. It seems to you like New Jersey probably less so than what's taking place just outside DC.

Nancy Solomon: Yes. Virginia is by far more of a swing state than New Jersey is. Like I said, I think the gubernatorial races every four years are outliers to the general trend in New Jersey voting, that it's the one statewide race that Republicans can win and they have had no luck with Senate campaigns for instance. I think the congressional races are going to be tight. They've been tight for the last couple of cycles.

Tom Malinowski is in danger. He's got a very popular Tom Kean Jr candidate that's going to go up against him again. I think Andy Kim is in a swing district that is going to be another tough fight. I think we will see very close congressional races here in the midterms, but I don't see New Jersey as a bellwether swing state that says something about the national elections in '24.

Brian Lehrer: Early voting, folks, is underway in New Jersey. You heard from that poll worker, people are liking the new system. Nancy Solomon, reporter and editor in the WNYC newsroom and host of the Ask Governor Murphy monthly call-in show on the station. Nancy, Thanks a lot.

Nancy Solomon: Thanks, Brian.

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