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Brigid Bergin: It's The Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC. Welcome back, everybody. I'm Brigid Bergin from the WNYC and Gothamist newsroom, filling in for Brian today. Earlier this week, all three Democrats running for governor held their first debate. Governor Kathy Hochul took most of the hits from her opponents Congressman Tom Suozzi of Long Island and New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams. On Monday night, it will be the Republicans' turn. The debate will once again be broadcast on CBS 2 Newsradio 880 and online. The hosts will again be Maurice DuBois and Marcia Kramer.

The Republican candidates taking the stage will be former Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino, Andrew Giuliani, son of former Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Congressman Lee Zeldin, and businessman Harry Wilson, who is self-funding his bid for governor. A figure who is expected to loom large in this race is, of course, former President Donald Trump, who has been making endorsements in key primary contests across the country but has yet to make one in this contest where he has ties to several of the candidates. A reminder, the primary is on June 28th. Coming soon, early voting starts on June 18th.

Joining me now to talk more about who these candidates are, what to watch for on Monday night's debate are two top New York political reporters. Laura Nahmias is a senior reporter covering New York City and state politics at Bloomberg News, and Joseph Spector is the New York editor for Politico, overseeing government and politics coverage in Albany and New York City. Laura and Joe, welcome back to WNYC.

Laura Nahmias: Thank you for having me.

Joseph Spector: Thanks so much for having us.

Brigid Bergin: Great. Listeners, we may have time for a couple of questions, if you have a question for Laura or Joe about this Republican field. If you're planning to watch the debate on Monday night. What are you going to be listening for, watching for. Call us at 212-433-9692? Particularly for New York Republicans, how will President Trump's endorsement if he makes one, what will that do for your decision in this race? Again, the number is 212-433-WNYC. That's 212-433-9692 or tweet @BrianLehrer. Laura, you covered that Democratic debate earlier this week, lots of focus on guns and public safety. Some discussion on the state's bail laws. How are you expecting Republicans to frame these issues on Monday night?

Laura Nahmias: I think, and I'd love to hear Joe's thoughts on this, I think that there's going to be a lot of discussion and emphasis on crime in New York and what the candidates intend to do to address rates of violent crime and gun violence that's dominated a lot of the conversation in the state and here in the city. They each have their own platform for how they intend to address crime. There's not a tremendous amount of difference policy-wise, but expect them to outline what exactly they want to do and to be very critical of the 2019 bail reform laws that were passed at the state level, which several of the candidates in the Republican primary blame for the increases in crime.

Brigid Bergin: Joe, it's similar question to you. You were at the Republican state convention on Long Island back in the spring. As Laura said, crime and public safety is a theme, every speaker talked about crime and public safety at that convention, and polls show that it remains a dominant issue among voters. To Laura's point, is there much daylight among these Republican candidates on this issue?

Joseph Spector: Broadly, no. [chuckles] You're not really seeing much, and maybe we'll get a clearer sense of that in the debate when they're all up there together. They're all looking to run as the law and order candidate here, and running to the right of Hochul if it ends up being her who wins her own primary on June 28th. It's going to be an interesting debate, because we really need to get a sense of where the differences lie between them. It's interesting because there hasn't been a lot of public polling. The assumption is Lee Zeldin, who has the party support, won the convention, is the front runner.

That's not to say that Andrew Giuliani with his famous name in New York, in a Republican primary, where you probably have low turnout, the Trump factor, as you mentioned. Who's to say that his name and his campaigning might not be enough to carry today? Rob Astorino already ran statewide. Harry Wilson, he spent close to $8 million of his own money on ads. While the Democratic primary certainly appears that Hochul has a very significant lead, little uncertain here on this Republican side.

Brigid Bergin: Absolutely, yes. I can't not find a Harry Wilson add on when I watch the Yankee games. Definitely seeing a lot of Harry Wilson in the world on the television. We started today's show talking about last night's January 6th hearings, which really laid out the violence that ensued and the existential threat to our democracy. When those hearings wrapped, Congressman Zeldin was on Fox News, and said, "You give Americans a vote, they would rather see a focus on the attack on their wallets." He, of course, was one of the Republican House members who refused to certify the presidential election results. I'm wondering, how much do you think the issue of these January 6th hearings will be in the Republican primary?

Laura Nahmias: This is an interesting question. Over the last two or three decades, there's been this growing problem for Republicans who want to get elected statewide in New York. As the politics of the country have become more polarized, as Trump has come to dominate the Republican Party, the distance between what a candidate needs to do to win a Republican primary in New York State and what they need to do to win the general election has widened, I would say. I think while some of the candidates like Zeldin and Andrew Giuliani perhaps would welcome an endorsement from Trump, it could also be a significant liability for them in a general election.

I think Politico has done some really good reporting on this, whether or not Trump will actually make an endorsement, what the politics is for him, whether it benefits him. Potentially not, in case he backs the wrong horse in the primary and it doesn't add to his win ledger as everyone's watching whether or not he still has the clout that he once did in endorsements. Then whether or not it's enough of a boon in the primary versus liability in a general election for a Republican candidate running statewide. A Republican hasn't won statewide election, I believe, since 2002. That is a very long time since someone has been able to make up that gap.

Brigid Bergin: I want to bring in a caller, not a Republican caller, but someone who wants to make a point about New York State's primaries. John in Cobble Hill. John, welcome to WNYC.

John: Thanks very much. There's an organization called Unite New York that really laments the fact that we don't have open primaries in New York State. We've got over 3 million registered voters in New York State, about 25% of the electorate, that's not a registered Democrat or Republican. We all know, don't we, that the winner of this Republican primary has almost no chance of winning in November? Just as Curtis Sliwa had no chance of the city. If we had open primary, we could identify, let's say, as they do in many places, the top two candidates that would go at it in the fall. Maybe that would be Hochul and Suozzi. Maybe it would be Hochul and one of these Republicans.

It's just so sad that we have this system, not only do we have no rank choice voting in these primaries, we have these closed partisan primaries. That's my main point. Thank you.

Brigid Bergin: John, thanks so much for your call. It's certainly something we hear around the primary season, a lament among voters who are not registered with a party as they see the action play out. Not something that, Joe, I think there's been much energy around out of Albany, but certainly not something that we haven't heard before.

Joseph Spector: No question, and a lot of points to address there. For one, as Laura noted, we've seen this time and again, in primaries, not only in New York, but around the country. Particularly Republican primaries, or maybe if a left-of-center Democrat were to win. Time and again, what you see in New York is the moderate Republican doesn't win the primary. You saw it, back in the news now, Carl Paladino in 2010. He was able to beat Rick Lazio in the primary, so that you had a conservative going against Cuomo when he got crushed. You're wondering now, are we going to see the same thing?

Harry Wilson would be the moderate candidate in this field and he's running as such. My colleague Anna Gronewold had a good story about him running. He worked in the Obama White House as an advisor. These things that he's trying to tout, but will ultimately the party go with Lee Zeldin, who, as Bridget, as you note, supported Trump when he was in office, or Andrew Giuliani, who certainly does as well? Then you end up in a general election, whereas Laura noted you haven't had a Republican win since 2002, and now you have the same playbook.

Bridget Berg: Joe, I want to get to what you recently wrote about, which was that question of whether or not former President Trump plans to make an endorsement in this race. He hasn't done so yet, as Laura noted, some may want it, some may not. He does have close ties to several of the candidates. Can you lay out how he's connected to them?

Joseph Spector: Yes. Of course, we all know his relationship with Rudy Giuliani, is one someone who's close to them. He says he's known Andrew Giuliani since he was in diapers, and that's probably true. The relationship between Rudy Giuliani and Trump obviously goes back decades. You have that relationship. Rudy has been as loyal to Trump as anybody, so when he comes to Mar-a-Lago and says, "Mr. President, are you going to support my son, he's running for governor in your native state?" that's a decision for Trump. Then you have Lee Zeldin who has also been loyal to Trump throughout Trump's tenure and arguably the frontrunner. If Trump were to back Andrew Giuliani and he loses, then that's a loss for Trump.

As Laura noted, Trump's trying to have more wins than losses in these endorsements. Then Rob Astorino also has a relationship with Trump. Trump has a lot of property, I guess, golf course in Westchester where Rob Astorino was the county executive for a long time. There's a relationship there too, so tough call. Then the question becomes if Lee Zeldin were to win, does he want Trump's endorsement in a general election? You could see the ads now, the Trump-endorsed candidate from Kathy Hochul. How's that going to play statewide where Trump did very poorly in both his election runs?

Bridget Berg: Now, I was going to wait until the end of our conversation to bring up Carl Paladino, but since you brought him up, Joe, and you mentioned-

Joseph Spector: Well, he did run for governor.

Bridget Berg: He did run for governor 12 years ago and he did defeat the Republican establishment candidate Rick Lazio, as you mentioned. There is that potential we could see the state GOP party is backing Zeldin, but could someone like a Giuliani, if we were to compare the two, win? My question is the reason that we haven't mentioned that Carl Paladino is making headlines again today is he's running for Congress in the 23rd congressional district. That's up in Western New York in the Buffalo region. Made news today for comments about Adolf Hitler, calling him the leader we need. Those are remarks he's tried to walk back, but Paladino is facing a primary challenge against the state GOP chair, Nick Langworthy.

Laura, I'm wondering, do you think this congressional primary, which of course is not until August, could this impact the statewide Republican primary for governor, which is June 28th, essentially serve as a distraction?

Laura Nahmias: It could, it certainly depends on the mindset of whatever slice of the registered Republican electorate turns out to vote for the gubernatorial primary and what their priorities are. Are they going to be thinking about fealty to Trump and what the current Republican party orthodoxy is nationally or are they going to be thinking about electability? I think Carl Paladino is a very well-known figure in New York politics. He also has this notable reputation for saying incredibly inflammatory things of which these flattering remarks about Adolf Hitler is only the latest. Is that something that voters shy away from in Republican contests these days, or is that something that is going to attract?

We really don't know. As you said at the top of this segment, what is the impact, I think, too, of these January 6th hearings and reminders of the relationships and potential connection between the January 6th riot and the former president, and bringing all of that backup? What does that mean for voters and how much did they care about that?

Bridget Berg: You're listening to The Brian Lehrer Show I'm Bridget Berg and I'm filling in for Brian today, and I'm speaking with Laura Nahmias, a senior reporter covering New York City and state politics at Bloomberg News, and Joe Spector, New York editor for Politico. Joe, another thing that we're going to be watching out for, of course, the United States Supreme court still has dozens of opinions to issue this term. There are two days next week where more opinions are supposed to be issued. Two cases, in particular, are likely to become major issues in this gubernatorial contest related to the future of abortion access and the right to carry concealed weapons here in New York.

These issues are likely to be major factors in the general election. How significant do you think they will be in a Republican primary?

Joseph Spector: The one will be the Concealed carry law and whether that'll be overturned. It's certainly New York officials are bracing for that. In fact, the legislative session year in Albany ended last week but lawmakers are already guarding to come back up here soon after if in fact a concealed carry limited band is thrown out. They'd be up here quick to pass some through laws in that regard. I think it can play a role, both the abortion issue and the concealed carry piece. On abortion, George Pataki is the last Republican governor elected in New York and he was pro-choice.

The question has always been since then, can a pro-life Republican win statewide? I think that's going to be put to the test particularly this year as we wait for the decision on Roe v. Wade coupled with the new abortion laws that New York put into place this year. No doubt about it, Kathy Hochul is going to make both the gun control laws that were passed in the final days of the legislative session, along with the abortion laws, key planks of her campaign. She already is. She already has ads up on both. Critical both in the Republican primary, but then in general as well.

Bridget Berg: Again, this is one of the ways that Harry Wilson is distinguished from this field of other Republican gubernatorial candidates as the only pro-choice Republican in this race. Laura, do you see this? We know that certainly Republican primary voters are going to be more conservative voters, but New York Republicans are not necessarily the same kinds of Republicans we see in the national stage. Could this in any way help him in this primary?

Laura Nahmias: I think that it could. Also, as a savvy voter might take note, I think some of the polling since the news broke about the impending or potentially impending Supreme Court decision has actually galvanized more of the electorate. We've seen, nationally at least, that voters are feeling more protective and more supportive of abortion rights. That's a significant change from, I think, the last decade. I remember in 2014 when Rob Astorino was running against Andrew Cuomo and Andrew Cuomo tried to make his differences with Astorino over abortion a central facet of the campaign, because they actually didn't differ that much when it came to things like fiscal or economic policy.

The cry from backers of Astorino was that, "This is a red herring, it's a nonissue, it's settled law. This is never going to come up, my personal beliefs about abortion don't really have an impact. Anyways, this is not the most important issue facing the state." We now see that the situation has changed significantly. It is very much in doubt whether or not Roe V. Wade is going to be the settled law of the land in just a few months. As we've seen a bipartisan increase in support for abortion rights more generally since the news has come out of the potential Supreme Court decision.

Bridget Berg: I need to do just a very quick station ID. This is WNYC FM HD and AM New York, WNJT FM 88.1 Trenton, WNJP 80.56, WNJY 89.3 Netcong and WNGO 90.3 Tom's River. This is New York and New Jersey Public Radio. We have a debate coming up on Monday night, Joe and Laura, and what are you going to be watching for, Joe, in terms of how these candidates try to distinguish themselves?

Joseph Spector: That's exactly right. How are they going to distinguish themselves? Their planks are all very similar, as Laura, different degrees of experience. Rob Astorino being a county executive, Lee Zeldin both serving in Albany and in Congress. Andrew Giuliani and, what is he going to talk about when it comes to his ability to be an executive of this state? Then Harry Wilson coming at it from the business perspective. They do have different backgrounds but then when they get on the stage, how are they going to differentiate themselves when it comes to policy and what their vision for New York is going to be?

I think that's going to be key. Then obviously, were the attack points on each other? I mean, does Harry Wilson go after Lee Zeldin and Giuliani about their support of Trump? I mean, if he tried to distinguish himself that way in a Republican primary, I'm not sure how that would play or whether that's the route he wants to go.

Bridget Berg: Laura, what about you? I mean, I know that when you covered the Democratic debate, certainly guns, crypto, were some of the big topics. Do you expect to hear obviously different takes, but on some of those same issues on Monday night?

Laura Nahmias: Potentially. I do think that, as Joe said, one of the biggest areas in which the candidates do have significant differences is in their experience. I would expect to see Rob Astorino and Harry Wilson touting their ability to manage larger organizations and I'm curious to see whether anyone goes on the attack against Andrew Giuliani, who is, I think, the youngest candidate in the primary and has very limited experience in politics in general. He has spent much of his adult life as a golfer and served in the Trump White House as a public liaison but it's not clear how much involvement he actually had in crafting policy and what sort of experience he has in terms of dealing with the very specific and idiosyncratic New York State Legislature.

We've seen people try to ride into Albany like cowboys, a little bit like Eliot Spitzer, and quickly come up against some of the systemic power structures that already exist there. I'm definitely watching for that, where they point out which of them would do the best job managing the state.

Bridget Berg: I want to take one caller, Lee in Staten Island. Lee, welcome to WNYC. What are you going to be watching for in the Republican debate?

Lee: Thank you. I would like to know if your guests know what each candidate's position is on who was the legitimate winner of the 2020 presidential election?

Bridget Berg: Lee, thanks so much. Joe, you want to take that question?

Joseph Spector: Good question. Well, for one, Lee Zeldin voted against the certification of the election. I mean, that's going to be an issue that comes up time and again. I'd have to check on the others. I mean, Giuliani, certainly his father's position, I'm not sure how much he differs from what Rudy had talked throughout the campaign. Just, to Lee's question and it's a good one, thanks for calling, the whole connection with Trump and whether, one, there's an endorsement. A lot of people don't think there will be an endorsement, just because of all the different aspects that I laid out earlier. That aside, he'll be a dominant person in this primary, whether he endorses or not.

As Laura said, Governor Cuomo's two reelection bids were all about, particularly the last one against Marcus Molinaro. Molinaro said he didn't vote for Trump and he didn't Cuomo still ran ads against them about Trump. It just goes to show you where the Democrats will be in this election.

Bridget Berg: Well, we're going to have to leave it there. My thanks to Laura Nahmias, senior reporter covering New York City and state politics at Bloomberg News, and Joseph Spector, the New York editor for Politico, thanks much to you both.

Laura Nahmias: Thanks for Bridget.

Joseph Spector: That's right, thanks, Bridget.

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