Brian Lehrer: It's The Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC. Good morning, everyone. I love hearing the BBC talk about Bill Belichick, didn't you? Anyway, we'll talk about Governor Phil Murphy and his predecessor in our first two segments on today's show. Coming up later this hour, Nancy Solomon will join us with excerpts and analysis from the governor's State of the State Address and his follow-up appearance with Nancy here on WNYC last night for his monthly Ask Governor Murphy call-in.

We'll take your reactions from your phones today with your calls and texts on the governor's speech and appearance, but first, we'll talk about Governor Murphy's predecessor in that job, and here is why. The most important moment on the night of CNN's Republican presidential primary debate in Iowa may have come a little before the debate even started when former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie dropped out of the race and said this.

Chris Christie: I want to promise you this. I am going to make sure that in no way do I enable Donald Trump ever to be president of the United States again. That's more important than my own personal ambition.

[applause]

Brian Lehrer: Christie fears for us all what another Trump presidency could bring and he means it. Christie did accidentally step on his message a little though despite the heartfelt speech we just sampled from there when he was accidentally caught on tape saying something quietly to someone about the remaining challengers to Trump, Nikki Haley, and Ron DeSantis. This begins with what Christie said about Nikki Haley.

Chris Christie: She's going to get smoked. You and I both know it. She is not up to this.

Female Speaker: Because she hasn't even been challenged.

Male Speaker: She's still 20 points behind Trump in New Hampshire, right?

Chris Christie: Yes. Oh yes.

Male Speaker: He's still going to carry Iowa, right?

Chris Christie: Yes. DeSantis called me, petrified that I would--

Male Speaker: He's probably getting out after Iowa.

Brian Lehrer: We weren't supposed to hear that, but we did. "Haley's going to get smoked and she's not up to this," he said. DeSantis called him and he's petrified. Still, though, Christie's exit could actually help Haley beat Donald Trump in New Hampshire next week. That would be huge. We'll talk about that. Once again last night, the two candidates in this last debate before next Monday's Iowa caucuses did not want to say much about the guy who declined to appear. It wasn't for lack of trying to get it out of them, though, by CNN co-moderator Jake Tapper.

Jake Tapper: Governor Haley, when Governor Christie dropped out of the race just a few hours ago, he said the most important issue is "the character of the candidate." Governor Christie also said he ran because he knew he would be the only Republican candidate to speak the truth about former President Donald Trump. Do you believe Donald Trump has the character to be president again?

Nikki Haley: Well, I think the next president needs to have moral clarity. I think you need to have moral clarity to understand that it's taxpayer money, not your own money. I think you need to have moral clarity to understand that when you're dealing with dictators in the world that we always have to fight for democracies and human rights and protecting Americans and preventing war. When you look at Donald Trump, I have said, I think he was the right president at the right time.

I agree with a lot of his policies, but his way is not my way. I don't have vengeance. I don't have vendettas. I don't take things personally. For me, it's very much about no drama, no whining, and getting results and getting them done. I don't think that President Trump is the right president to go forward. I think it's time for a new generational leader that's going to go and make America proud again. That's what I'm going to try and do.

[applause]

Jake Tapper: Governor DeSantis, what is your response to Chris Christie? Do you believe Donald Trump has the character to be president again?

Ron DeSantis: Well, I'm running because I'm the guy that's going to be able to engineer a comeback for this country. I appreciated what President Trump did, but let's just be honest. He said he was going to build a wall and have Mexico pay for it. He did not deliver that. He said he was going to drain the swamp. He did not deliver that. He said he was going to hold Hillary accountable and he let her off the hook. He said he was going to eliminate the debt and he added $7.8 trillion to the debt. We need to deliver and get this stuff done.

Brian Lehrer: With me now on these developments and more is Aaron Blake, senior political reporter for The Washington Post and author of their Campaign Moments newsletter. Aaron, thanks for coming on with us when you've had so much to write about in the last few days. Welcome back to WNYC.

Aaron Blake: Hey, Brian. Thanks for having me on again.

Brian Lehrer: Can we start with the Chris Christie exit? Should we think of him like people think of Liz Cheney, like a conservative Republican on most things, but genuinely concerned for the future of the republic if Trump is elected again? He was willing to run, knowing almost certainly full well that he would lose, in fact, what some people called "get humiliated," at least in terms of the percentage of Republicans supporting him, just so he could make that case in the spotlight a number of times.

Aaron Blake: I think that's the most appropriate parallel. Chris Christie, much like Liz Cheney, chose a path that very obviously marginalized him and probably brought an end to his political career. Liz Cheney had one of the biggest primary defeats in her House race in her last campaign. Christie, who was supposedly this kind of savior and waiting for the Republican Party in 2012, didn't run then.

He's got a very single-digit showing in New Hampshire and Iowa in 2016. Now, he didn't even make it to Iowa this time around. I think that both of those examples show that this kind of strategy is kind of self-sacrifice. You are giving away your own personal political future. The fact that Christie did that, knowing that this would ultimately probably be the outcome, I think reinforces that this was him very much trying to make a point.

Brian Lehrer: Listeners, one of the ways we could take calls this segment is if there are any Chris Christie Republicans listening right now, and I don't just mean people who voted for him for governor in New Jersey, but people who would have liked to see him be the Republican presidential nominee this year, who's your second choice? 212-433-WNYC.

That's a really relevant question in New Hampshire. For anybody, no matter where you're listening, if you are a registered Republican and somebody likely to vote in a Republican primary anywhere and Chris Christie was your number one, who's your number two? 212-433-WNYC, or even just say anything about Chris Christie's role in this presidential cycle, 212-433-9692. Call or text.

Aaron, I imagine the most important thing about Christie dropping out since he was polling at what I've read is around 12% in New Hampshire, which is a meaningful number, and Haley, what we heard in that off-mic clip was that she's 20 points behind Trump. I've also seen she's only within single digits of Trump in recent polls. Is the most important thing about Christie dropping out that he increases the chances that Trump will actually lose the New Hampshire primary to Haley on January 23rd?

Aaron Blake: I think there's no question this opens the door to the contest being more competitive. Whether it would be sufficient for Haley to actually potentially win is another matter. If you look at what Christie's base was in New Hampshire and, as you know, it is a significant base in that state only, some polls had him up in the mid-double digits, the mid-teens, his base was almost exclusively people who were not registered Republicans.

These were people who were moderates. These were people who, in some cases, were left-leaning. That's a potential factor in New Hampshire because it's an open primary and there's not much of a Democratic contest. Those are voters that the obvious home would be Haley. By the way, I would add, there is a new poll out today in Iowa from Suffolk University that shows basically all of Christie's support goes to Haley in Iowa. Now, that's just 2%. He was only at 2% in that poll and all of that went to Haley.

Brian Lehrer: 2%.

Aaron Blake: If that were to also be the case in New Hampshire, if 10% of voters were backing Christie and go to Haley, that creates a much closer potential race and certainly a good development for Haley.

Brian Lehrer: Maybe Christie's timing of announcing the suspension of his campaign on the evening of that debate was also to prompt the kind of exchange, such as it was, that we heard there to make Haley and DeSantis answer that question we heard framed in those terms by Jake Tapper of Christie dropping out and saying what he did about Trump's character, yes?

Aaron Blake: Yes, I think so. Christie has made clear. There's been a narrative for a number of weeks now about how he could help Haley by dropping out. His response to that has basically been, "Well, a lot of good that would do because Nikki Haley isn't doing the right thing. She is not taking Trump head-on. She's not showing the kind of assertiveness to really go after him, so why would I necessarily help her?"

Now, I have a hard time believing that he doesn't prefer her as an option to Trump, but certainly that I think this is an effort to push her in that direction. She didn't really take the bait too much in the debate on Wednesday night, but we'll see what happens specifically ahead of New Hampshire when voters who might be more receptive to that message play a bigger role in this process.

Brian Lehrer: Did you hear anything new from either of them about the guy they actually have to beat unless-- There was not nothing in that clip we played. There was something. There was Haley talking about she's no drama, which was one of President Obama's nicknames, right? No-Drama Obama. She said she's no drama. She's not into vengeance like Trump. That's something. DeSantis said, "He failed to build the wall. I'll succeed in building the wall." It was something, not nothing. Anything new there?

Aaron Blake: Yes, there was a time at the beginning of the debate where both of them recited the various things that they've been saying that are mildly critical of Trump. The national debt rising on his watch, not building the wall, things like that. I think later in the debate, it came back to that point. We got a little bit of new ground. Haley specifically was asked about Trump trying to overturn the election and she said that he will have to answer for January 6th. Now, this is something she said very shortly after January 6th.

She was actually much harsher back then before walking it back, but I think that was more a reflection of her being put on the spot and having to go in a little bit more detail on that subject. They didn't really go hard at him. There was also a moment where DeSantis was asked about Trump talking about terminating the Constitution. He differed with that but also described it as "word vomit," which is pretty dismissive and suggests that it's not all that serious to begin with. Not exactly hitting Chris Christie's advice to take Trump head-on.

Brian Lehrer: Maybe they're both in the race only in case Trump spontaneously implodes or explodes for some reason, maybe having to do with his legal cases or whatever. If, for some reason, Trump goes away, then they present themselves as the alternative, not really running against him if he's in because he's such a prohibitive favorite. Do you think that's their strategy?

Aaron Blake: I think that's a lot of it. I think that's the strategy they've had to fall back on. It's better to be the one who's there just in case something falls apart. It's also a reflection of, it's just not a viable political strategy to go after Trump that hard. We've seen this with Chris Christie. You have to treat the situation with kid gloves because alienating Trump's supporters means that you have a very difficult path to the nomination.

It creates a situation where it's basically impossible to go after the guy really hard that you're trying to beat. That's been the case from the very beginning of the primary. There was some thought that maybe it would change towards the end as a little bit more desperation sets in. These are candidates who are not only trying to win this cycle, but they're also minding their political futures. They recognize that taking Chris Christie's route is probably a license for no longer having any kind of career in the Republican Party.

Brian Lehrer: Right, because they're young enough to have 2028 presidential campaign in their sights despite what Don Lemon said about Nikki Haley not being in her prime at age 51 on CNN. That got him fired. Maybe Haley is really running to be Trump's vice president and DeSantis is really running to be his education secretary.

Aaron Blake: I think the whole speculation about vice president is a little bit overwrought at this early juncture, but Trump does have a tendency to hold that out there, including during his town hall with Fox News last night of like, "Yes, you guys might not want to go too hard after me because I might be able to offer you something in the future." Certainly, Nikki Haley is somebody who would make a lot of sense if she keeps herself in his good graces, at least somewhat moving forward.

Brian Lehrer: By the way, can you imagine DeSantis as education secretary? I guess that's another show. With Aaron Blake-- Did you want to say something about that?

Aaron Blake: Yes, I would say I think probably, he would be thinking more in terms of a 2028 bid when Trump is no longer able to run if he serves another term. That would make more sense. Education secretary would be something. That's for sure.

Brian Lehrer: Getting some nice Chris Christie love and texts. A listener writes, "Christie is the male version of Cheney, two courageous truth-tellers." Another listener writes, "Corey here in Hoboken. I was going to vote for Chris Christie. He was the only candidate with a spine to stand up to the Trumpists. In the same vein, I'll vote for whoever is not Trump. I'd like a moderate Republican who will work to get things done." Kim in Maplewood, I think, is on that track. Kim, you're on WNYC. Hello.

Kim: Yes. Hi. I'm calling because Christie was a choice of mine originally for all the things that you just read in the texts and stuff. I think being from New Jersey, I know all the history of him and his prior bullying and all of what he did, but it feels like he had turned the tide and he had learned from that, at least what he was saying. I appreciated his standupness in what he was saying. Anyway, Nikki Haley would be my second choice in this because I feel like I'm tired of all the chicanery of the candidates that are so vengeful and bullying and self-serving. I feel like she's the most reasonable voice in the race.

Brian Lehrer: Kim, thank you very much. That's a point of praise from Kim in Maplewood, Aaron, when she says, "Nikki Haley seems like the most reasonable voice." For Trump, it's an opportunity to paint her as too far to the left, which he did after Christie dropped out. Trump released something like, "Oh, even more reason for Nikki Haley to go even further to the left." Is Nikki Haley to the left of Donald Trump on any issues that you can name?

Aaron Blake: I think that it's not so much a right-left continuum. Trump is so hard to pin down on that and always has been. There are many ways in which his policies are extreme, but then he'll do something like on abortion, where he'll say some of these abortion restrictions like in Florida with the ban after six weeks are too harsh. I think what the key difference here is Nikki Haley is very much a standard issue, George W. Bush-era Republican that has fallen out of favor with where the party is now.

She speaks in compassionate conservatism language. She's not overly critical of business interests in a way that other people in the party are right now. To a lot of people, that sounds like she's a squish and she's too far to the middle. I think what the caller brings up is an interesting point though, which is what does Christie do now if he says his goal is to influence to try to defeat Trump?

Option one is supporting Haley, but he just said that she would get smoked on that hot mic. Option two is supporting Biden, who would be the general election opponent, but he said he will not do that. Would he back a third-party candidate? That risks enabling Trump by taking votes away from Biden potentially. There aren't a whole lot of easy answers to the extent that Christie wants to do that. He boxed himself in by basically saying Nikki Haley has no chance last night.

Brian Lehrer: One listener texts, "Christie enabled, boosted, and supported Trump. Does he get a pass for this?" We'll leave that as a rhetorical question. Another listener writes, "As a New Jersey Democrat, I found myself in a great position of irony, rooting for Chris Christie to become the Republican nominee." Wayne in Queens might be a little bit on that track. Wayne, you're on WNYC. Hello.

Wayne: Hello, Brian. How are you doing? Yes, same thing. I tend to be more Democratic, but I actually like Chris Christie. I had certain problems with him when he was a governor, even though he's in Jersey, about raising the minimum wage, I think, $0.30 or something like that. Overall, it's a binary choice. Trump cannot be president really. He already took a torch. Now, he's going to add gasoline if he becomes president again to the whole system we have in this country.

I keep telling friends of mine who are real Trump supporters because their 401(k)s went up. That's great, but my issue was, remember, I keep thinking of Steve Bannon. Steve Bannon and his whole group is about the chaos here. They honestly believe that this whole system needs to be burned down to the ground. I am not a proponent of that. There's certain things that need to be changed, but you don't burn down the whole system. If Trump gets in with his loyalists, I guarantee you, it will be burned down to the ground.

Brian Lehrer: Wayne, thank you very much. One more on this track. Gary in Little Ferry, you're on WNYC. Hi, Gary. Thanks for calling today.

Gary: Thank you. Before moving to Little Ferry this year, I lived in Fort Lee for over 35 years. I actually ran as a Republican for council twice, one time when Christie was running for governor. I support Chris Christie. I would maybe reluctantly support Haley, never DeSantis. Mitt Romney is right. DeSantis is a smart fascist and Trump is a stupid fascist. At least Haley on foreign policy is much more a traditional Republican, believes in a strong America. The Republican Party should be ashamed of itself. Doesn't integrity mean anything anymore?

Brian Lehrer: Do you have a candidate if it comes to a Republican primary in New Jersey?

Gary: Well, I'd probably vote for Haley if she's still on the ballot, but I might not even vote. I can't stand the politics of today. Donald Trump has destroyed the Republican Party. He has destroyed the conservative movement. I'm 70 years old, so I didn't vote for the first time since 1976 for president in 2016. In 2020, I voted Mitt Romney. This man is a total disgrace. There's not an honest bone in his body.

Brian Lehrer: Gary, thank you very much for your call. I appreciate it. A listener texts. After all those calls and previous texts, listener texts, "Christie should switch parties and run Democrat." Aaron, that's not going to happen, right?

Aaron Blake: [chuckles] We talked about Liz Cheney before. There was some talk about that happening. Their policies, by and large, are still conservative. The idea that they would be viable in a Democratic primary is very far-fetched, nor would Democrats like them once they became the Democratic standard-bearer. There's just not a practical route here. I think it does raise some questions about potentially a third-party candidacy would Chris Christie be interested in the no-labels ticket or something like that. I think you'll start to see a little bit of talk about that. Right now, he's a man without a political home.

Brian Lehrer: Interesting that we've gotten this far in this conversation about Chris Christie and nobody has said the word "Bridgegate."

Aaron Blake: Although we did get a Fort Lee reference at one point.

Brian Lehrer: We did. We got a Fort Lee caller. Instead of criticizing Trump in the debate last night, DeSantis and Haley, who were the only two remaining candidates who qualified-- By the way, for those of you who didn't watch, which probably almost everybody, Vivek Ramaswamy did not qualify, though he's still in the race. Mostly, they just bashed and bashed and bashed each other. Here's 30 seconds of a clip that CNN released as an example afterwards.

Nikki Haley: If leadership's about getting things done, how did you blow through $150 million in your campaign and you were down in the polls? You are not a man of word.

Ron DeSantis: I think this is very instructive.

Nikki Haley: No, I'm going to say--

Ron DeSantis: I think this is very instructive about how Nikki Haley sees the world.

Nikki Haley: I think I have the floor.

Dana Bash: Governor DeSantis--

Ron DeSantis: She equates political advertisements as like that is important as the kids and their education.

Dana Bash: Governor DeSantis, Governor Haley has the floor.

Ron DeSantis: What is more important here? She's saying somehow that that's not as important?

Dana Bash: Governor DeSantis, it's Governor Haley's time. Go ahead.

Nikki Haley: I think I hit a nerve.

Brian Lehrer: Did you learn anything? Our guest is Aaron Blake, senior political reporter for The Washington Post. He writes their Campaign Moments newsletter. Did you learn anything about their positions on any of the issues and how they might differ from each other? For example, I see you listed Ukraine as a winner of last night's debate.

Aaron Blake: Yes, and that's not because there's going to suddenly be a sea change in the Republican Party. This is an issue on which the GOP has steadily been moving against continuing to support Ukraine financially. What we had was a two-person debate that at least allowed the candidates at points to really drive a message at length. Haley did that on Ukraine in a way that we don't see a whole lot these days, especially from a Republican.

She basically argued that the amount of money we're spending there is a pittance and as well worth it when it comes to what it could potentially avoid in the future in both blood and treasure. She doubled down when DeSantis pushed back on her and echoed the more non-interventionist wing of the party. I think it was a significant moment. She's certainly been pro-Ukraine in the past, but she was allowed to drive that home a little bit more than she has in the past.

As for other new things, I don't think there was a whole lot. It was a lot of sniping back and forth. I think that was perhaps to be expected because these two are really fighting for that Trump alternative lane rather than running against him. It probably leaves the race more or less where it began the night and, again, with the biggest development potentially being Christie dropping out.

Brian Lehrer: Listeners, I don't know if last night's debate is even worth reacting to. You can if you want. We're done with the Christie portion of the call-in. The candidates mostly made it kind of a joke by making it more like an MMA match than an exchange of points of view on how to help Americans, but comment or ask your question if you like. 212-433-WNYC, 433-9692. We may even have time to get to some other things with Aaron Blake from The Washington Post. I did not see the whole debate. Did they bring up the Civil War?

Aaron Blake: I don't recall there being a discussion of the Civil War. There was a moment when the other big recent Haley controversy came up, which is Trump's team unearthing video from 2015 when she said that we shouldn't call undocumented immigrants criminals. She walked that back to some degree. I think that was the momentary controversy that she was confronted with.

Brian Lehrer: That sets up what I want to talk to you next about after the break, which is this phony-- and how many times do we need to say in advance before we even raise the topic of something that is blatantly false uttered by Donald Trump or put on social media by Donald Trump? That's a "birther claim" against Nikki Haley, but I think he did it as a policy trap, which I'll explain. We'll get into that and more with Aaron Blake from The Washington Post in their Campaign Moments newsletter right after this.

[MUSIC - Marden Hill: Hijack]

Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer on WNYC with Aaron Blake, senior political reporter for The Washington Post and author of their Campaign Moments newsletter. I see that Trump amplified yesterday a "birther claim" against Nikki Haley. Completely false, unfounded, not what the law says. Are we clear enough? Like when Trump tried to say Barack Obama wasn't eligible to be president because he wasn't born in the United States, except he was.

In this case, it's because Haley's parents were immigrants but not citizens at the time of her birth, but it's another Trump lie. That is not the rule. If she was born here, the Constitution says she's a citizen and eligible to be president. Is Trump just stooping that low, and I think we can call it that racist yet again like with Obama, to try to hang ineligible on a candidate of color?

Aaron Blake: Yes, I think it's worth noting that Nikki Haley's parents were also legal immigrants at the time. It's not a situation like that. This is very much old hat for Trump. He has done this with, of course, Obama for many years. He did it with Ted Cruz around the Iowa caucuses eight years ago, almost exactly this time. Then when Kamala Harris was the vice presidential pick in 2020, he did the same thing. What we also see is that the theories involved here are getting more and more novel. With Obama, it was based upon this false idea that he was not born in this country.

With Cruz, there was actually some question about whether somebody who was born in Canada like he was could satisfy the natural-born citizen requirement. With Harris and with Haley, there's just no question because they were born in this country. That confers citizenship upon birth. It's an attempt to otherize people. It's something where he got away with this for a lot of years. Republicans didn't really go after him hard. What does he do? He just keeps doing it when his political opponents are presenting him with that opportunity.

Brian Lehrer: The natural-born citizen or birthright citizenship standard is in Article II of the Constitution and in the 14th Amendment. That pesky 14th Amendment keeps getting in Trump's way. The insurrection clause. Now this. Here's the text for people who don't know it. This is from the 14th Amendment. "All persons born or naturalized in the United States and subject to the jurisdiction thereof are citizens of the United States and of the state wherein they reside." Case closed on that.

I wonder though, Aaron, if there's not a policy trap behind this one. Maybe Trump isn't even so politically sophisticated to roll out a multi-layered trap like this, but maybe he is. He supports ending birthright citizenship, so the children of undocumented immigrants are not automatically citizens and therefore allowed to stay, right? I see that Haley has not explicitly supported that. Maybe Trump is trying to push that difference into the spotlight in the Republican primary narrative?

Aaron Blake: Yes. We'll see if he starts pushing this more. This was more of posting a link to a conspiracy theory website that played up this very novel legal analysis. I don't know that he's necessarily continued to push this. He does throw things out there. He tends to do that. To the extent that Nikki Haley is threatening him, I would imagine this is something he'll probably go back to.

We'll see it ahead of the New Hampshire primary. As far as focusing on that birthright citizenship thing, this is something that comes up for him occasionally. It's not something that's practical because it would require amending the Constitution. That's really going nowhere. To the extent that he does try to focus things on that, it's a non-issue as far as what's actually practical.

Brian Lehrer: I said we were done with Christie calls, but Dennis in Pompton Plains is calling in and saying he was Christie's pastor. Dennis, you're on WNYC. Hello.

Dennis: Hello. How are you?

Brian Lehrer: Good. How are you? What you got?

Dennis: I was Chris Christie's pastor. He is a good guy. I don't agree with him on everything. A lot of things, I don't agree with him on, but he's a good guy. He's a man of integrity. I support him. Give him a break. Good guy.

Brian Lehrer: [chuckles] That's it?

Dennis: He's a good guy.

Brian Lehrer: Did he come to confession with you and talk about Bridgegate? Anything like that?

Dennis: Oh, I can't say that.

Brian Lehrer: Oh, you can't say that.

Dennis: I can't say that. His wife was very active. She was one of our catechists. I preach every once in a while. He was in the congregation. I don't think he always agreed with me. He was very cordial. He's a good guy. I met him a couple of times in the drugstore. He gave me a big hug and says, "Father Lash, I'm praying for you. I'm going to advocate for victims of clergy abuse." He gave me a big hug. I went into the store and I'd say, "Hey, Chris, I'm looking for the Colgate toothpaste." "It's over there," he said. He's just a friendly guy and a good friend.

Brian Lehrer: Dennis, thank you very much for calling in. I appreciate it. Peter in Park Slope, you're on WNYC. Hi, Peter.

Peter: Hey, how are you? As I told your screener, I'm really unsettled by the prospect of Haley as a candidate because I think she'll just swing to the center for the general. I fear that people will view her as a sensible, moderate, default candidate who's okay to vote for and siphon votes from Biden.

Brian Lehrer: Peter, thank you. Aaron, aren't there polls showing that Nikki Haley, at least as of now, would beat Biden by a lot more than Donald Trump who's around tide with Biden in the polls but that Haley would do better than Trump, let's put it that way?

Aaron Blake: Yes, there are. The one she brought up last night that she's fond of citing for obvious reasons is a Wall Street Journal poll that actually showed her leading Biden by 17 points in the general election. That's something of an outlier. We do see in polls that test multiple general election matchups that she generally performs better than Trump by at least a few points. Now, there are valid questions about whether that's actually the case. I think if Trump were not the nominee, we would see certain people that would otherwise vote, stay home, and not actually support the Republican nominee. These samples tend to have the same people testing each matchup.

It's tough to pin that down. I think there is plenty of evidence. This is something that I've written about a lot that when Republicans run these more standard-issue Republicans, this has been true in the 2023 election, the 2022 elections, those candidates do significantly better than the Trump-aligned candidates do. I think that creates a situation where there is a credible argument to be made that somebody like Nikki Haley being the nominee would do much better against President Biden, who has lots of problems and bad poll numbers right now. I would imagine that's a case she'll be making ahead of the New Hampshire primary.

Brian Lehrer: Aaron, before you go, in our last few minutes, I see you've also got articles this week called, Another GOP Impeachment Push. Another Struggle to Isolate an Offense. That's about the new impeachment process against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, and one on all these Trump legal proceedings called, Trump's Legal Flip-Flops Get Their Day in Court. What do you mean by legal flip-flops?

Aaron Blake: There's a lot of examples of Trump having one standard for his political opponents and then professing to have another standard for himself. Before he was indicted, he repeatedly called for the prosecutions of his political opponents. He's complaining about being potentially kicked off the ballot under the 14th Amendment, but he is called for multiple opponents to be disqualified for various reasons, including the ones we talked about before with the birther stuff.

What we saw in court this week was when Trump was pushing this immunity claim in his January 6th federal prosecution, his attorney was confronted with the fact that his attorneys during impeachment argued that Trump could be prosecuted once he was no longer president. Now, they're making a very different case. I think it just reinforced that Trump's standards on these things are often very self-serving and they change, depending on the circumstances that are beneficial for him. It was really interesting to listen to that hearing in the appeals court. I doubt it's going to turn out well for him in that appeals court. We'll have to see, I guess.

Brian Lehrer: Yes, that immunity from prosecution on January 6th charges argument because he was president at the time and claims he was acting in his official capacity. I guess that's probably going to hang on whether the appeals court thinks he really was acting in his official capacity with all that stolen election lie and January 6th stuff or if he was just acting as a candidate, which would not protect him. One of the remarkable moments and a real lean-in toward authoritarianism is when Trump's lawyers argued that a sitting president could have a political rival assassinated and he'd be immune from prosecution. Did you catch that part?

Aaron Blake: I did. This was the moment that actually, I believe it was Nikki Haley last night, was asked about it. She basically said that Trump's lawyer lost the argument at this point and lost the case. It was pretty remarkable that the judge, a judge by the name of Florence--

Brian Lehrer: Oh, she did, huh?

Aaron Blake: What's that?

Brian Lehrer: She did, huh? That's significant.

Aaron Blake: Yes. The judge, Florence Pan, one of the three judges on the panel, basically tried to go at this hypothetical, which has been raised by Special Counsel Jack Smith's team, which is that if you give the President absolute immunity like Trump's lawyers are arguing for, doesn't that mean that the President can murder his opponents? Doesn't that mean they can do all manner of things without legal accountability?

The argument from Trump's lawyer was basically, well, they can be impeached, but only can they be prosecuted if they are convicted in an impeachment setting. That drove home this very broad standard and one that, if it were accepted by the courts, would have a significant bearing on Trump's second term if he's elected again. It reinforced the very extreme privileges he's asking for in some of these court cases.

Brian Lehrer: There's some Republican circular reasoning here because some people may remember in the impeachment proceedings related to January 6th, Mitch McConnell said he would not vote for the conviction on that impeachment in the Senate because it's the legal system that will deal with Donald Trump's actions with respect to that. Now, they're coming around and saying, "No, it's the Senate that's supposed to deal with Trump's actions in relation to that.

Aaron Blake: By the way, it wasn't just Mitch McConnell. It was also two of Trump's impeachment lawyers at that trial making that same argument. They were saying that a former president cannot be impeached and convicted but that they can be held accountable by the legal system. They said that was the backstop. That's where the legal flip-flop comes in here. They made that case. It was actually part of the rationale that many Republicans cited for acquitting him, including McConnell. Now, they're arguing very much the opposite when it serves them.

Brian Lehrer: One last thing before you go. We're talking about all these investigations of Biden, of Mayorkas. There was another investigation moment in Congress yesterday when Hunter Biden showed up at a House Oversight Committee hearing and South Carolina Republican Nancy Mace laid into him in this surprising way.

Nancy Mace: First of all, my first question is, who bribed Hunter Biden to be here today? That's my first question. Second question. You are the epitome of white privilege coming into the oversight committee, spitting in our face, ignoring a congressional subpoena to be deposed. What are you afraid of?

Brian Lehrer: White privilege. Check my privilege for asking this question, Aaron, but is Nancy Mace white?

Aaron Blake: [laugh] Yes, she is. It was a really interesting decision by Hunter Biden to show up at this hearing. He did this before a scheduled hearing before he held a press conference. He's clearly driving home the idea that he is willing to testify as long as it's a public hearing. His team says that they don't want details of a private deposition to leak out and be spun by the Republicans.

Showing up here takes things to another level, created more of a circus environment, this House Oversight Committee hearing, and I think brings this into a new era in this investigation where the Democrats seem to be warming to a more in-your-face response to these impeachment and various investigations. They're not content to ignore them like they were before.

Brian Lehrer: Do you think that serves the purposes of his father in the reelection context?

Aaron Blake: It's a really good question. As I noted, the idea before was to try to ignore this and basically hope that it went away. I think they recognize that with this impeachment inquiry taking off, they can't ignore this. They have to take this head-on. What they saw, I think, in the House Oversight Committee hearing was an opportunity to drive home that the handling of these hearings hasn't always gone smoothly. They tried to create a situation in which it looks very chaotic. James Comer's handling of these things has not even rubbed a lot of Republicans the right way. They're basically saying, "Look, you want this to be a circus? We're going to make it a circus for you."

Brian Lehrer: I guess I'm just marveling at a white South Carolina Republican accusing Hunter Biden of flaunting white privilege for showing up at a hearing about him. Do you know if Mace has ever said what she thinks the cause of the Civil War was?

Aaron Blake: [chuckles] I don't know actually. It was a really interesting line. I'm not even sure what she meant by that, that this betrayed some kind of privilege from Hunter Biden. Certainly, it was in your face, but I don't know that it necessarily had anything to do with privilege.

Brian Lehrer: Aaron Blake is a senior political reporter for The Washington Post and writes their Campaign Moments newsletter. Let's keep talking this year, Aaron. Thanks a lot for today.

Aaron Blake: I'd like that, Brian. Thank you.