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Brian Lehrer: It's The Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC. Good morning everyone. Live on Tuesday, April 19th, a day after a Trump-appointed judge in Florida undid the public transportation mask mandate for the whole country. As the Biden administration decides whether to appeal, all the major airlines plus Amtrak, plus NJ Transit immediately lifted their own mandates voluntarily, but you should know the New York City buses and subways have kept theirs intact for now. Do you still want to take that airplane trip?

April 19th is also an outsized day in US history. As the HISTORY channel's daily newsletter reminds us today, the Revolutionary War began on April 19th in 1775. The first blood was drawn in the Civil War on April 19th, 1861. The Central Park jogger attack took place on April 19th, 1989. The Clinton administration's attack on the religious Branch Davidian cult compound in Waco, Texas, ended with the compound burning down on April 19th, 1993.

The Oklahoma City bombing took place two years later on April 19th, 1995. Not to mention that on April 19th, 1809, Thomas Jefferson sold an indentured servant to the newly elected President of the United States, James Madison. Quite a day in US history, April 19th. I can only wonder what might happen today.

Meanwhile, as the world watches the gruesome campaign of war crimes unfold in Eastern Europe, let's not miss what might be about to happen in Western Europe. This coming Sunday, far-right leader Marine Le Pen could be elected the president of France. Downgrading France's role in NATO and tilting more toward Russia during this war could be just two of the extreme ramifications if she wins. Others, according to New York Times Paris bureau chief Roger Cohen, could include relegating climate issues to a low priority, banning the wearing of headscarves by Muslim women in public, and more.

Now, there hasn't been much coverage of the France presidential campaign in this country, I guess because of other pressing issues to pay attention to like Ukraine and crime and COVID and inflation. The incumbent, Emmanuel Macron of course, and Le Pen came in first and second in the first round of the election separated by just four and a half points. They are now in the home stretch of the runoff campaign toward this weekend.

New York Times Paris bureau chief Roger Cohen joins us now live from over there. Roger, thanks so much for some time for our US audience today. Welcome back to WNYC.

Roger: Thank you very much, Brian.

Brian Lehrer: I'll ask you, of course, why this race is close and how close it appears to be, but first I'd like to ask you to describe for our listeners some of Le Pen's positions. You use the label far-right for Marine Le Pen. In general, and then we'll go down to some specifics. In general, how far-right is she?

Roger: Well, she's attempted a Miltos makeover during this campaign, but if you look at her program she's still pretty far to the right. She's an anti-immigrant candidate, and that has been the position of her National Rally, formerly National Front party for a long time. She wants to ban the use of the headscarf in public if she's elected. She wants to rewrite the French constitution through a referendum in a way that would make it impossible for France to accept a number of foreigners that was deemed to be changing the essential character of France.

She's generally to the right on most issues. She's been a firm supporter for many years of President Vladimir Putin in Russia for his stand, as she sees it, on behalf of nation, religion, family, and so on.

Brian Lehrer: The question of Ukraine, as most of Europe debates whether to label Putin's war a genocide or merely horrific war crimes, Le Pen said she would seek a "strategic rapprochement," or reconciliation in English, I guess, with Russia. What would that include according to Le Pen's campaign?

Roger: Well, Le Pen, as I said, has been a firm supporter of President Putin. When he annexed Crimea in 2014 she approved that. She said that it was a coup d'état in Ukraine that had precipitated these events, and that President Putin had been entirely justified in doing that, as in provoking the conflict in the eastern Donbas region. Since the war in Ukraine, to be fair to Madame Le Pen, she has for the first time ever criticized Russia, saying that a red line was crossed with this invasion.

She has adjusted her position some. She's scrambled, if you like, to try to put the degree of her attachment to Mr. Putin behind her. She would pose a very big problem, I think, to President Biden in the sense that he has tried to, and very successfully has formed a united allied front to try to save Ukraine and defeat Russia. If Ms. Le Pen is elected, France would in effect become the soft underbelly of the West, and that alliance would fracture.

Brian Lehrer: She said she would respect NATO's Article 5, which says if one NATO member is attacked they'd consider all of NATO attacked, but would not put French troops under a unified NATO command. Could that be an important distinction in practice or just on paper?

Roger: Well, I think to withdraw from the integrated military command of NATO at a time of war in Europe when a Russian president has alluded to the possible use of nuclear weapons, it may be a technical change but it's symbolic, and it's highly disruptive. On the question of rapprochement with Russia, I was at a press conference when she talked about this the other day, and she said, "Well, once peace is established in Ukraine and then a peace agreement is signed, I'm going to try and engineer this reconciliation with Russia."

As if all the war crimes that we have witnessed in Mariupol, in Bucha, and so on would just pass under the carpet overnight, peace would be made, and some kind of reconciliation with Russia would be engineered by Ms. Le Pen. To say the least, it's far-fetched and troubling.

Brian Lehrer: I seem to recall Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump all tried to have rapprochements with Russia after the cold war.

Roger: [laughs] You have a good memory, Brian.

Brian Lehrer: We see how those were kept.

Roger: Wasn't it called the reset with President Obama?

Brian Lehrer: Obama called it a reset.

Roger: As for Donald Trump, he never--

Brian Lehrer: Bush said he looked into Putin's eyes and saw he has a good soul. It was something like that.

Roger: Correct. President Trump didn't even have to gaze into President Putin's eyes. He just decided, for whatever reason, that he would never, ever, ever criticize a single thing that President Putin said. He did impose sanctions on Russia, but when it came to Mr. Putin's actions from meddling in the 2016 election to flattening Aleppo in Syria, to all that he did in Ukraine with the annexation of Crimea and instigating this war in the Donbas, President Trump really had nothing to say.

Brian Lehrer: Well, they say Trump didn't just like Putin, he wanted to be like Putin in domestic policy at least, but that's another show. Listeners, if you have ties to France in any way-- and we know there will be voting in this country on Saturday for French people who are here in France on Sunday. If you have ties to France in any way, we invite your calls on the runoff election to be held this weekend between Macron and Le Pen. Help us report this story. 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692, or tweet @BrianLehrer and we'll ask our guest Roger Cohen, The New York Times Paris bureau chief, but we'll ask you too.

Why is this even close, in your opinion? With Le Pen having a shot at becoming president of France, which would be a far-right earthquake in European and global politics as Roger has been describing. Or anything you want to ask New York Times Paris bureau chief Roger Cohen at 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692, or tweet @Brian Lehrer.

Roger, let's go down some of these other issues. On relegating climate to a lower priority if Le Pen gets in, the global climate strategy now in effect is known as the Paris Climate Accord. I guess that could become an ironic joke. What would downgrading climate policy in France Le Pen style look like?

Roger: Well, it's not really clear, Brian. She's all about French national grandeur, French sovereignty, French diplomatic presence on the world stage. She said at this news conference the other day there is no France without grandeur. In her scheme of things, climate rates some way down the list. She's dismissed wind turbines, for example, of which there are many thousand in France, as a scam, and has said that she will dismantle them. I doubt that that would ever happen, but she's a big advocate of French nuclear power generation. Nuclear power stations do account for the bulk of French electricity generation.

Brian Lehrer: Although whatever people think about nuclear power, and of course that's always a matter of debate, it is climate-friendly, right?

Roger: It is, yes. That is correct, but in terms of developing alternative green post-carbon economy and environmental measures, she's negative. I mean, she just thinks it doesn't really matter, or it's not the crisis that much of the world considers it to be.

Brian Lehrer: Your latest article's headline says "As final vote nears in France, a debate over Islam and headscarves." That sounds like such a George Bush-era headline; war and terror era headline. In what way are they still debating headscarves in France?

Roger: [chuckles] Well, they can never quite get away from it, Brian. A full-face covering is already not permitted here in France. Any kind of ostentatious religious symbol, and a headscarf is considered one, is not allowed in schools and cannot be worn by le fonctionnaire, the army of civil servants, while they're performing their duties. Madame Le Pen wants to take this even further. She wants to extend the headscarf ban to anywhere in public. She said she will fine anybody who wears a headscarf in the same way as people driving without seatbelts are fined.

Now, whether this would apply to a headscarf as a fashion statement à la Audrey Hepburn is unclear, but it would be a pretty extraordinary step to try to do that. She's maybe tried to roll it back a little saying that Parliament would have to vote on it in the last day or two, but she says-- I mean, President Macron countered by saying, "Well, if you do that," because the constitution guarantees equality of treatment for all believers or non-believers in France, "you would have to ban the kippah. You would have to ban the cross and use of these in public."

To which she counted no, it's not a religious symbol, the headscarf. It is the symbol of Islamism. A militant, extreme expression of Islam. It's pretty grotesque. She's trying to argue that it's-

Brian Lehrer: I mean, we can just-

Roger: -actually a political symbol.

Brian Lehrer: -fact-check and say that that's false, right?

Roger: Pardon?

Brian Lehrer: Can we just fact-check and say that that's false?

Roger: Yes, I think we can. I would say definitely yes.

Brian Lehrer: Yes. That not every Muslim woman who wears a headscarf is making a radical Islamist statement by doing so, and probably the vast majority are not. This is sort of a non sequitur but sort of a segue. What about masks? We just had the court ruling in the US lifting the federal mask mandate on public transportation. Do they have anything like that in France, and is it a right-left issue there like it is here?

Roger: To some degree yes, Brian. Use of masks has been gone now for about six weeks or seven weeks, I think. It was sort of a President Macron gift to the electorate ahead of the election.

Brian Lehrer: Including on trains?

Roger: Not on public transport, no. Not on trains and not on [crosstalk].

Brian Lehrer: Sorry. Not on trains meaning no mask mandate on trains?

Roger: You have to wear a mask on trains and on flights.

Brian Lehrer: You do?

Roger: Everywhere else, restaurants, wherever you go, no compulsory mask use any longer in France. There have been big demonstrations against masks because France had a health pass for a while. It was called a Pass Sanitaire, and if ever you went to a restaurant, a bar, or just about anywhere, you had to show this health pass. The health pass was eliminated about seven weeks ago or something. That's gone--

Brian Lehrer: That includes the vaccine mandate being eliminated to get into restaurants and things, correct?

Roger: Correct. Now, the National Rally is Le Pen's party. When confronted with the fact that enforcing a headscarf ban would be extremely difficult, they countered by saying, "Well, look. If we can get tens of millions of people to wear a mask, we can do this."

Brian Lehrer: Yes. I guess no ban on yarmulkes, no ban on turbans because the Le Pen argues that they aren't symbols of religious extremism. Your article on the headscarves describes Le Pen as a nationalist with an anti-immigrant agenda. Can you elaborate on what anti-immigrant means in the context of France right now beyond headscarves?

Roger: Well, she hasn't gone as far as Eric Zemmour, the extreme, even further-right candidate who ended up legitimizing Ms. Le Pen to some degree because he was so forthright. He talked about mass deportations of Moslems in France. She however has said that Algerians, for example, who are in France but who do not have gainful employment could be asked to leave even if they have not committed any kind of crime. She wants very strict enforcement of any request for refugee status or asylum in France, and she's not going to allow anybody in unless these applications have been processed outside of France. Let me [crosstalk].

Brian Lehrer: Wait a minute. When you say refugees' asylum status, there's been a lot of press about Europe welcoming Ukrainian refugees with open arms. Is that true in France?

Roger: Yes. Madame Le Pen has supported that. There's no other way of saying it. It's anti-Islam. Its anti-Moslems. It's anti the large influx from North Africa of Moslems and from France's former colony in Algeria. It's related to the succession of Islamist terrorist attacks that there have been in France since 2014. In 2014 on Charlie Hebdo, the satirical magazine that published a cartoon of the Prophet Muhammad. In 2015 in that massive attack, including on a concert hall called Bataclan where more than a hundred people were killed in those attacks. On a school teacher who was trying to teach freedom of expression and showed one of those cartoons, who was beheaded a couple of years back.

All that plus unemployment, plus the disruption of a globalized, modern world that has made a lot of people feel uneasy, has caused many people to lose jobs. It's very like in all Western societies. There are a lot of people who feel uneasy, who feel inclined to blame others, who are unhappy about the degree of immigration, and all that goes into the Le Pen phenomenon. A far-right leader is within range of becoming the leader of a major European power that is nuclear-armed and a permanent member of the UN Security Council.

This would be a disruption and a shock, I would say, on the scale of Brexit in 2016 - the British exit from the European Union, which was driven by some similar forces - and of course, the election of former President Trump the same year in the United States.

Brian Lehrer: We are already in a situation where President Zelenskyy of Ukraine wants to be part of the EU, Boris Johnson doesn't. Maybe Marine Le Pen, the leaders of France and Great Britain won't want to be part of the EU if this election goes a certain way this weekend.

Listeners, we're going to take a short break, then we're going to continue with The New York Times Paris bureau chief Roger Cohen as we preview the runoff election in France this weekend between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, and the implications. We'll ask Roger how it's actually going, what the polls look like. Why enough French people are leaning toward Le Pen. That this is as close as it appears to be. Also, why the two of them combined-- The two of them combined only got 50% in the first round, so there are a lot of people who don't like either of them. Listeners, we see you calling with your ties to France so we'll take some calls too. Stay with us. Brian Lehrer on WNYC.

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Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer on WNYC as we preview the Macron-Le Pen runoff in the French presidential election this weekend with Roger Cohen, Paris bureau chief for The New York Times. Adam in Brooklyn, you're on WNYC. Adam, thanks for calling today.

Adam: Thank you very much. I just wanted to say first that I'm a big fan of the show and of Roger's work. That Le Pen really represents a rejection of the left and the right elites. All of these leaders in France, whether they come from the socialists or from the right-wing parties, they all have traditionally come from the same school. There's a kind of group-think among this elite leadership that has vowed to solve the problems of France. I think people are looking to people like Le Pen as less even what she's specifically saying, and mostly because she's rejecting the Macrons and the Hamons and all of these leaders.

Brian Lehrer: Adam, do I understand from our screener that you are a French citizen?

Adam: Yes, I'm a French citizen, and I voted in the first round and will vote this Saturday.

Brian Lehrer: Do you want to say for who?

Adam: I will vote for Macron.

[laughter]

Brian Lehrer: Thank you very much. What do you think about his analysis, Roger?

Roger: Well, first of all, I'm shocked, shocked, shocked that Adam is going to vote for Macron. I think his analysis is very good. Macron and his predecessor François Hollande both went to this elite school, the École Nationale d’Administration, ENA, where a ridiculously high proportion of French presidents go. Again, as in many Western societies, there's a fairly widespread rejection outside the metropoles, outside the big connected cities by people who feel left behind, of these elites who have been able to manage successfully the modern tech-driven world, whereas they have not.

They have faced problems getting to the end of the month. They have faced problems finding doctors in the regions where they live, finding even train stations in the regions where they live. Some of that led, of course, to the big yellow vests protests beginning in late 2018 that Mr. Macron was finally able to bring to an end by coming down from Jupiter. There was a popular theory that he was behaving in a Jupiterian way, like the king of the gods, when he first took office and he finally started listening to people.

It's interesting that Le Pen's support if you look at it, people who are more than 10 kilometers from a train station in the countryside vote overwhelmingly for Le Pen, and the further from one they are the more that number goes up. Yes, it's a feeling of alienation, not feeling confident about their children's futures, worried economically, and just existentially troubled. Feeling prepared to roll the dice. To hell with everything, as with Brexit, often with no illusions. I mean, Ms. Le Pen's been around for a long time. We will see.

Brian Lehrer: As with some people who voted for Trump, at least the first time. Adam, thank you for your call. We appreciate it. Let's go to another French citizen here in New York who says she'll be voting this weekend. Cecile in Brooklyn, you're on WNYC. Cecile, thanks for calling in.

Cecile: You're welcome. Good morning, and yes, I will be voting on Saturday. I will also be voting Macron. I assume that there's going to be an overwhelming support for Macron outside of France. It seems that all us expats, we're all voting Macron because we care about the image of France and we can't fathom that extreme-right leader might be leading France.

That being said, I think one of the factors that really explain why we are in this situation-- and this is not the first time that Le Pen, either Marine or her father, has been in the second round, but the other times everybody was saying, "Okay, we cannot have an extreme-right leader," so everybody is going to be voting for Chirac or Hollande or Macron. Anybody else but Le Pen. It's different this time around because what Macron did by creating this center new party that isn't really left or right, but he's very liberal and very new and very young, is that this has precipitated the collapse of the traditional left and the traditional right.

A lot of people have not understood what Macron was trying to do; have never liked what Macron was trying to do. My parents are retired, and all retirees are really mad at Macron because he's taking away some of their purchasing power and made reforms that they see as really being hurtful to them. You have a whole generation who normally would not even think of voting far-right, who are now so mad by this extremely arrogant young guy who just comes like a wrecking ball in their life that they are thinking of voting far-right. These are people that would never in a million years have supported this type of ideology. They're so mad that it's reactionary.

Brian Lehrer: Cecile, is Le Pen, as you understand it based on what you said, kind of more pro-traditional French social safety net for the pensioners and others than Macron with his reforms?

Cecile: For the pensioners, yes. For the pensioners, and especially, I would say, the white pensioners. I think what she represents is a rejection of the global liberal ideology of Macron that has gotten a bad rap. Of course, seeing this from our perspective here, we're like, "Well, what Macron is doing, that's great. It's great for France. He's doing really good things," but for people inside the country, they're like, "We don't care about what you think outside of France. We care about what's happening with our monthly budget."

Brian Lehrer: Finances. Personal finances, yes.

Cecile: That's where it is. I don't think she's that good for the safety net, but yes, people are just scared and they're going to reactionary.

Brian Lehrer: Cecile, thank you very much for your call. I appreciate it. I'm going to take one more that I think is along the same lines in an interesting way. Then I want to ask you a question about this economic piece of it, Roger, and how it's maybe different from left-right in the United States. Here's Iris in Washington. That's Washington, New Jersey, of course. Hi, Iris. You're on WNYC.

Iris: Thanks so much for having me. I'm a huge fan of your show. All I can say is I agree with all of the callers prior to myself. I too am voting on Saturday, and it's just very sad that it's come to these two individuals. You have Macron and Le Pen. [chuckles] I was there maybe a few months ago and there's so much hatred for Macron and what he represents, this Western capitalistic idea, that is just hurting all of the social safety nets. I can't imagine that we are at this crossroads where people are really going to vote for someone like Le Pen. I'm voting on Saturday and it's going to be for Macron.

Brian: Iris, thank you very much. I'm actually going to sneak one more in here before we go back to Roger because we're getting one call from France. It looks like Matthew in France, you're on WNYC. Hello from New York, Matthew. Where are you?

Matthew: Hi, Brian. I'm in Biarritz, France, the southwest corner. Right on the border of Spain in the Basque Country.

Brian Lehrer: I see from my screen that you're an American applying for French citizenship. Is that correct?

Matthew: Yes, I'm going through the naturalization process right now. My dossier is in the queue, so just waiting for the interview.

Brian Lehrer: How does all this look to you with your US roots?

Matthew: It's quite fascinating. Way, way back, I have some French ancestry; maybe it led me to France. Came here for school, decided to go through with it with the next visa. I have a mixed group of friends. I have maybe three buckets of friends. I have one that's maybe more countryside, white, a little bit older, very pro-Le Pen, very pro-populist nationalist. Talking about that social safety net, they fear that that's going to be totally reactive if Macron continues to do what he's doing.

I have another group that's just like me. We're immigrants. I guess you can say I'm an immigrant, I'm not an expat. I'm going through the process as immigrant, but most of them are maybe Muslim. Pakistani, Algerian, Tunisian, Moroccan, West African, all the above. Then I have my other group of friends that are totally socialist, eco-friendly sustainability. You have these three buckets. The one group, the last one I said, they're just so frustrated that they have these two options.

They're completely frustrated, but I get a sense they're totally going to vote for Macron because they just can't stand Le Pen. She kind of represents the better evil. Then the other group who are struggling to be here, set up their life here, they're just praying that Le Pen doesn't win, so they want Macron. Then you have this other group that will probably vote for Le Pen. To the other caller and her parents, and there's a lot of people, baby boomer age, so it's a bit of a toss-up, I think. The expats in New York that were calling, I hear them they're going to vote for Macron. They have this high hope that he wins.

Obviously, I'm not going to say much because they have my naturalization dossier and there could be a new president, whoever comes into power. I hope that the process becomes smooth and easy for the ones trying to establish their life, and also for people of Islam that have lived here for generations. We're talking about Algeria and Tunisia. These are people that have been here for multiple generations. They're struggling just to hold their French nationality and their French pride. It's a really fascinating time.

Brian Lehrer: Thank you for all that insight. When the French equivalent of ICE comes asking after you, we'll tell them you never called.

Matthew: Thank you.

Brian Lehrer: Thank you very much. Roger, to this social safety net aspect, I read an article elsewhere that said, "Le Pen is different from Trump. Europe's far-right is different in general but certainly in France, in that Le Pen may be racist and anti-immigrant like the American far-right, but she is economically populist, while American Republicans still embrace the corporate agenda even on the far-right." How much are your perceptions, as reported, similar to that?

Roger: I would say they're pretty similar, Brian. She's very big on preserving the social safety net. She's way less big on saying how she's going to pay for it. She, for example, has said she will keep the retirement age in France at 62, whereas Macron wanted to raise it to 65. Which may sound pretty normal these days with people living longer, but produced an enormous outcry in France where there was a strong feeling that there should be a good work-life balance, or perhaps rather life-work balance, and a different set of values really on these matters as compared to United States.

She's even talking about, or was talking about, lowering the retirement age to 60, although she seems to be walking that back. As I said though, she's not really made clear how she would pay for that, and Macron argues for his reform saying that the state is just going to run out of money if the current situation continues.

I thought that was a really fascinating set of calls, and I just want to make a couple of quick points. One is there's no doubt that Marine Le Pen has joined the French political mainstream. That is pretty extraordinary. If you think that when Jean-Marie Le Pen, her dad, founded the party in 1972, in his first run for president in '74 he got 0.74% of the vote. On all previous occasions, what the French call la digue, which is the dam, that's to say that having gone through the traumatic experience of Vichy France and extreme right fascist leadership during World War II, France would never, ever return to far-right governance.

There was this dam which resulted, even in the last election, with Macron winning easily by basically 66% to 34%. That dam has largely evaporated, and it's going to be close. Marine Le Pen has successfully come into the mainstream, so France has changed dramatically in that way. Then very quickly, we haven't talked about Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the far-left candidate who almost qualified for the runoff. Got 22% of the vote, just a point and a half behind Marine Le Pen. He was overwhelmingly supported by young voters. The big issue in the second round is where are these votes going to go?

There are millions and millions of votes. Mélenchon has said, "Not one vote Le Pen. Not one. Not one." He repeated it four times. A lot of these young people, for the reasons that these callers have mentioned, are very disillusioned with Macron. Those who dislike Macron tend to hate him. There's going to be, I think, a lot of abstentions among those people, maybe some people spoiling ballots, so we don't know how--

Brian Lehrer: This is like the Bernie Sanders voters in 2016 who after Sanders basically said, "Not one vote for Donald Trump" most of them voted for Hillary Clinton, but some meaningful minority did not.

Roger: Correct. It's not clear how they're going to vote. One point-- was it Cecile, I think, calling from Brooklyn?

Brian Lehrer: Yes.

Roger: When she talked about pensioners, older people, her parents, in fact Macron, according to the numbers, got powerful support. In fact, his strongest support came among older people, retirees. Why? I think because they're very concerned that a Le Pen presidency would be extremely destabilizing on multiple fronts: political, economic, strategic, you name it. They have savings and they're worried about the degree of disruption that could come with a Le Pen presidency. I think that point, while true in part, has to be balanced against those numbers.

Brian Lehrer: Well, a lot on the line for France and the world in this Sunday's Le Pen-Macron runoff. Roger Cohen is The New York Times Paris bureau chief. Thank you for filling us in so thoroughly. We really appreciate it. Good talking to you, Roger.

Roger: Thank you, Brian. Thank you very much.

 

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