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Brian Lehrer: It's the Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC. Good morning, everyone, and Happy Election Day. Politico New York writes this morning that there are no more off-year elections, just less on-year ones. As they and others point out, what happens in some of today's elections could matter to the much higher stakes ones coming next year, and even to the New York City mayoral and New Jersey gubernatorial elections in 2025.

Just a program note to start out, I will be back tonight at eight o'clock for an election night politics special in the eight o'clock hour where we will be talking a lot about that, the connections between this year's races and what's going to happen next year for Congress for president, and in 2025, mayor and governor.

For our first segment today, it's Brian Lehrer's show tradition. It's our informal, unofficial, thoroughly unscientific election-day exit poll. How are you voting in any race, anywhere, or on any ballot question? 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692. Electioneering welcome here. Who are you voting for and what issues are top of mind for you as you cast your ballots? 212-433-WNYC. Of course, we say exit poll. This could be if you voted absentee, voted early, voted early this morning, or have yet to vote today, it's still an exit poll are informal, unofficial, thoroughly unscientific election-day exit poll.

How are you voting in any race anywhere or on any ballot question? 212-433-WNYC, call or text. What issues are top of mind? Are they traditional local issues in these mostly local elections like taxes and housing and public safety and quality public schools? Is the asylum seeker surge an issue at all, relatively new on the political radar screen since last election day, or the Israeli-Palestinian conflict directly or indirectly?

It's November 7th, exactly one month since the attack by Hamas with its political as well as, of course, life-and-death consequences for so many Israelis and Gazans. We know the culture wars have come to many New Jersey school board elections. Don't overlook your school board races, folks, which it's often too easy to do. Did you know New Jersey has 580 separate school districts? 212-433-WNYC, if you're voting in any of those.

As the Bergen Record, northjersey.com reports, Republican lawmakers have seized upon a question that right-wing groups, some associated with anti-LGBTQ+ platforms are highlighting for conservative parents. Should schools be required to inform a parent if their child is transitioning or gay without the child's consent? State Law sides with children, it does not require schools to inform parents if a student confides in a teacher about their gender identity or sexual orientation.

Transgender students are a protected category under State Law. The Bergen Record reminds us conservative parents who want to change that are motivated to show up today, no doubt. Will others who disagree with them be as motivated? Call us if you're voting in a New Jersey School Board election for that or any other reason. 212-433-9692.

On today's relatively low stakes elections being bellwethers for next year's higher stakes ones as your calls are coming in. For example, every New York City council seat and every seat in the New Jersey legislature are up for grabs. If the New Jersey legislature flips from Democrat to Republican control, that would be a very big deal. Who are you're voting for? Red or blue in any jersey legislative race that you think could be decisive? 212-433-WNYC.

Some of the New York races could be bellwethers for next year's all-important congressional showdowns too. Remember how some Long Island and Hudson Valley seats went from Democrat to Republican for Congress last year? Basically, they were the margin in the New York suburbs, as we've already talked about a lot on the show, that gave Republicans control of the House of Representatives. Long Island, which used to have two Democrats and two Republicans in Congress before last year. Now has all four congressional seats occupied by Republicans. The year before that, 2021, Nassau County executive flipped from blue to red.

Do Long Islanders like how this trend is serving you or are you having second thoughts? One of the most closely watched elections today is for Suffolk County executive. The last major seat on the island still held by a Democrat, Suffolk County executive, that's an open seat this year. Politico New York says, if Democrat Dave Colon even keeps it within 10 points, let alone wins over GOP nominee, Ed Romaine, Democrats looking ahead to 2024 will be spinning faster than an offshore wind turbine if Governor Hochul allows any more offshore wind turbines. We'll talk about that in our climate story of the week later in the show.

They cite, Larry Levy, Executive Dean at Hofstra's National Center for Suburban Studies. He's quoted, they're saying since Long Island is a typical, almost a quintessential swing suburb, it could be a bellwether for the nation, and you thought voting for Hempstead Town supervisor today. It might even be North Hempstead town supervisor. Doesn't matter.

Who's voting in the Suffolk County executive race today or anywhere else on the island? Electioneering Welcome Here, call in to our informal, unofficial, thoroughly unscientific election day exit poll or text 212-433-WNYC, 433-9692. Another bellwether election for one of those Long Island congressional seats is actually happening in a New York City Council race in Queens. You know about this?

Part of George Santos congressional district is in Northeast Queens where a genuine MAGA Republican Vickie Paladino is running for reelection. Democrat Tony Avella, who used to represent the area in the state Senate most recently is trying for a comeback against Paladino. It could indicate something about something in that largely white and Asian American part of Queens, depending on who wins, so who's voting in the Tony Avella -Vickie Paladino race? Either way, 212-433-9692.

There are several competitive races in South Brooklyn and even one in the East Bronx. Marjorie Velázquez is the Democratic incumbent in that district that includes Pelham Parkway, City Island, Allerton, Throgs Neck, Morris Park, other neighborhoods around there. Kristy Marmorato is the Republican challenger against Marjorie Velázquez. Races like those could even signal what kind of progressive, if any, primaries Mayor Adams in 2025.

As Politico and others note, many of today's elections will be a measure of whether the recent swing toward Republicans in our area will continue crime and inflation and mask mandates were big issues last year that favored Republicans in the burbs. What are your issues today? Anyone voting in any race? 212-433-WNYC. As for the New Jersey legislature, we had callers yesterday watching Virginia where control from blue to red could happen threatening abortion rights in that state. That's the marquee legislature issue in Virginia, abortion rights.

You can call from Virginia again today if that's where you're voting. In fact, you can call from anywhere in America. Hello, Ohio, with your abortion rights referendum, or anyone from anywhere else. This is not just for New York and New Jersey, but imagine if the legislature were to flip even in New Jersey, where there will also be a new governor in two years because of term limits.

New Jersey, as Nancy Solomon pointed out on her show the other day, hasn't elected a statewide candidate for Senate in decades, but New Jersey does elect Republican governors sometimes as recently as Chris Christie. If there's control of the legislature, one way or another, in this election, and then control of the Governor's mansion is actually in play in 2025. We don't know where New Jersey is headed in the next few years.

New Jersey's political morning newsletter says, keep an eye out for surprises in District 30. Orthodox Jews in Lakewood were lining up over the weekend. It says to vote early, presumably for Avi Schnall, a rabbi running as a Democrat. Schnall, a former Republican who comes from a conservative community would likely vote with Republicans on most issues, but he'd be a sort of insurance vote for democratic leadership.

Meanwhile, Republicans appear to be aggressively targeting Democratic Assembly candidate's Neal McCoy in the 14th District. That's parts of Mercer and Middlesex Counties. A district that 10 years ago was one of the most competitive in the state but

which Democrats have kept comfortably more recently, says Politico New Jersey.

What else? I was in Westchester over the weekend and saw lawn signs for various local races like for town supervisor, and county legislator, and for judge in various places. Who's voting in any very local election like that? Who's voting for any judge candidate, judicial candidate on the ballot? So often overlooked, but we know how much it matters, just look at these Trump trials. How much it matters who the judge is, but you name your race, you name the issues driving you to vote. It's our informal, unofficial, thoroughly unscientific election day exit poll electioneering welcome here, 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692. Let's start with Julie up in Beacon. Julie, you're on WNYC. Hi, there. Happy Election Day.

Julie Shiroishi: Hi, Brian. Happy Election Day. Thanks for having me on. I was actually a candidate last year for state senate in one of those battleground Hudson Valley districts, lost my race, but now I am Executive Director with a group called Eleanor's Legacy with a mission of supporting pro-choice Democratic women running at the state and local level. This is a very important year for us. We are supporting and watching nearly 300 races statewide, so I just want to touch on some of the ones we're really closely watching. For Buffalo City Council in Erie County, Lee Halton-Pope and Zeneta Everhart are set to become the first women elected to the Buffalo City Council in nine years.

In New Rochelle in Westchester, Yadira Ramos-Herbert on her way to becoming the first-ever woman and Black and Latina Mayor of New Rochelle. In the town of Hampstead, in Nassau, Christine Liu in a heated too close call race where she might become the first ever AAPI candidate elected to the North Hempstead Town Council. In Utica, Celeste Friend is one of the most competitive elections in all New York State. If she wins, she will become the first-ever woman mayor of Utica. In the Bronx, as you said earlier, New York City Council member Marjorie Velázquez is in a tight race for reelection. When elected in 2021, she became the first woman of color and first Latina to represent Council District 13.

Our team has been supporting campaign efforts up and down the ballot in every corner of the state door to door, knocking, phone banking, text banking, because it's local elections like these that are decided by a handful of votes. Thank you for doing this, we really need everyone to turn out today and participate here in Dutch County. I voted yes on the ballot referendum for small city school districts, Beacon is a small city school district that has been impacted by the foundation aid formula and we need that referendum passed to fund our schools. These are just some of the things that we're watching and thank you for doing what you're doing. Once again, Julie Shiroishi, I'm the executive director with Eleanor's Legacy and local elections matter.

Brian Lehrer: Julie, thank you very much for being so granular and putting so many local elections on people's radar. Folks, that's exactly why we're doing this segment, and so whichever side, meaning Democrat or Republican, or in some cases, independent candidate you're on, Julie there cites a number of races that maybe you live in those areas, and maybe you didn't know those races mattered today, do a quick study, you can be a quick study and choose your candidate and go out and vote. From Dutchess County, we're going to go out to mountain lakes in Jersey. Lydia, you're on WNYC. Hi, Lydia.

Lydia: Hi, good morning, Brian, and thanks for having me on. For the races in New Jersey, the entire assembly is up on the ballot, so it's really important for New Jerseyans to get out and vote today. For me personally, our town was recently redistricted to be part of a much deeper red district. Some of our representatives, they indicate that they really will bend the knee to the radical Christian nationalist movement and their agenda. That makes me really nervous for women's bodily autonomy, for historically marginalized groups. This time, I'm just absolutely my vote, I'm going to vote blue but it's very much a vote against the agenda that seems to be working its way and even in the local politics.

We're lucky, we haven't had any book banding in our area, but I know that's taking place all over the place and we have to be on guard for that. Two school board elections are really important as well. With our new redistricting, we're now represented in the State Senate by Joe Pennacchio who came to one of our borough council meetings and made a statement that was pretty much in support of the January 6th insurrectionists.

This is not something that I think the electorate in Morris County or specifically, anybody who's paying attention should abide. I think it's really important for everybody to get out there, find out what your candidates are all about. The Republicans have made that even harder because they've refused, their county chair has made it a policy that they will not debate, so they don't even find it necessary to tell us what they think. It's very disheartening.

Brian Lehrer: Lydia, thank you very much for your call. Here's a text from somebody in Jersey who is not having a good day, "Just I want to tell you about a horrible experience today as I tried to vote in Jersey City. I live in Ward B. I just went to PS24 Charles Waters Public School, located on Virginia Avenue where I am registered to vote, I was told I wasn't registered to vote at this facility after voting at this location three times before," They do change those things sometimes, but still, "by one of the volunteers. The party atmosphere and the lack of help and concern by the volunteers at this facility really shock me. I was told to visit other facilities around the city.

I ended up at a firehouse on Kearney Avenue in Jersey City. The nice people allowed me to fill out a provisional ballot, from there changes have to be made." Who knows what the other party's point of view there? Meaning that people who are the volunteers there. There's an experience by one voter, "Things like that happen. Everybody else don't let experiences like that as perceived by that voter dissuade you from going out," right? There or anywhere else? Stephanie in Greenpoint, you're on WNYC. Hi, Stephanie.

Stephanie: Hi, Brian. Good morning. Yes, so in New York, we elect judges. That means that our rights are actually on the ballot every election, theoretically. Unfortunately, a tradition here in Brooklyn is that the Republican Party and the Democratic Party leadership get together and they make sure that their candidates are the same across the Democratic Party, Republican Party, and conservative party lines, meaning that we don't really have a choice. Often that means conservatives get elected.

There's a change this year, there's one candidate, Caroline Cohen, who's running specifically on the Democratic party line, and has refused the Republican and conservative party lines because she actually cares about choice and actually cares about our rights here in Brooklyn. I wanted to encourage people to get out there and vote for Carolyn Cohen for Supreme Court in Brooklyn.

Brian Lehrer: Stephanie, thank you very much. Yes, it's interesting about lack of choice in judicial elections. I noticed that on the ballot in my neighborhood, which is upper Manhattan, there are zero contested elections, our city council member, Carmen De La Rosa, is running unopposed, there's no Republican candidate. They figure, I guess, in Washington Heights, Inwood. Don't even bother, it's waste of time. Same thing with the judicial candidates, there are no competitive elections for the judicial seats. The only choice that somebody in my immediate neighborhood has is whether to vote for Carmen De La Rosa on the Democratic or the Working Families Party line.

That is not the case to that extreme all over town, but certainly with the judicial races, it tends to be more than with others. Yet, I was looking at a ballot in Queens the other day where there are competitive judicial races. If you are somebody who votes a straight party line but maybe overlooks judicial races generally, this is a year not to or do your research about the individuals, which is hard in judicial races we know.

Let's see, how about Ellie in Tomkins Cove in Stony Point, Rockland County? You're an actual candidate, right? I said electioneering welcome here, so we stand by that. Hello, you're on the air.

Ellie Kassner: Hi, Brian. Thanks for the shameless self-plugging opportunity. Yes, my name is Ellie Kassner, I'm running for Stony Point Town Council. We're a relatively smaller town in Rockland County, New York. One thing

I really wanted to communicate about is the historic amount of women running in Rockland County this year. Chrissy Knapp, Beth Davidson, Amy Pollock, Elaine Philhower, and many other women. The biggest issue, and it's something you were bringing up before is, the only way to truly not have change in our communities is to not have people run. It's a daunting task, it's a lot of work, but it is the only way to really work towards change in our communities.

Brian Lehrer: Would you do me a favor, and since you got on as a candidate and made your case for yourself, who's your opponent?

Ellie Kassner: I am running in a race that is, there are three candidates for two seats.

Brian Lehrer: Oh.

Ellie Kassner: I'm running against Michael Puccio and Paul Joachim, and we have a board that is comprised of completely one party. All of our zoning board and all of our planning board are also from that party. There's literally no diversity on any of the boards. There is one woman on one of the boards. It's a very monolithic voice.

Brian Lehrer: For people who think, ugh, Stony Point Town Council, what could be at stake? What's the biggest thing at stake for you?

Ellie Kassner: Because there's no transparency and no diversity of voices. There are no questions asked. The average town meeting is 35 minutes long. There have been 230 votes this year, all unanimous with no discussion. Having one different voice on the board can engage conversation and wake up people to ask questions of their town. "Why do we do things this way?" "Could we possibly do it different?" I think there is a golden opportunity for change.

Brian Lehrer: Is there a particular thing you want to see come out differently, policy-wise?

Ellie Kassner: Yes, I would like to pursue a third-party administered comprehensive master plan. Ours is 28 years old, so we're being propositioned with high-density housing projects every single year, and every year we have to fight to get them on referendum to vote down is a year we're not pursuing a project that we would like in town.

Brian Lehrer: You can say your name again. Ellie what?

Ellie Kassner: Ellie Kassner for Stony Point Town Council, and thank you to everyone going out to vote today regardless of how you're voting.

Brian Lehrer: Thank you very much. Thank you for your call. Ross in Harrison as we go from Rockland across the Mario. It's the tap and see, it's always going to be the tap and see to Westchester. Ross, you're on WNYC. Hi.

Ross: Hi, Brian. I'll tell you about former Mayor Ron Belmont, who's running as a write-in Republican, challenging the Republican who replaced him in Harrison, New York. It's near White Plains, but I'd like to ask you, my father Stanley had tons of fun with you. Brian, do you still play softball in Riverside Park on Saturday?

Brian Lehrer: [laughs] Wow, it's been a while since I played Riverside. Those are Saturday pickup games. I've played in the WNYC Softball League for a long time but not in those Saturday pickup games in a long time, but go ahead.

Ross: Okay. I'll tell you about Ron Belmont. He was the mayor for 10 years before another Republican replaced him and he's risking dividing the Republican Party by running against this guy, but he feels that the current Republican is taking contributions from people who do business with the town, and there's a lot of overdevelopment without permits. The funny thing is, is the Democrats running a fusion ticket with another Republican. It might be an interesting race to watch. Former Mayor Ron Belmont in Harrison, New York, writing him in. Thank you.

Brian Lehrer: Thank you very much. Debra in Jersey City, you're on WNYC. Hi, Debra.

Debra: Hi, Brian. Yes, I took advantage of early voting and voted, but I did two write-ins for our Hudson County executive and for our commissioner. They used to be called Freeholders, because unfortunately, Hudson County and New Jersey has the line and usually people don't bother, they just vote the straight line and I don't do that, but I just, in good conscience, could not vote for the man that's running for Hudson County executives or the woman that's running for commissioner, so I did write-ins.

Brian Lehrer: Debra, thank you very much. Let's see. Here's a text coming in from Suffolk County and the Suffolk County vote. "Bring back Steve Englebright for county legislature. Great environmentalist and humanitarian." We just had a Jersey City caller, listener, writes, "As a fellow Jersey City voter, I highly recommend the opt-in vote-by-mail option so you don't have to worry about day of issues or changing polling places." Oh, this is to the previous texter who had that bad experience. "All places should have an option for no excuse vote by mail."

Let's see, another text. A Nassau County resident registered Democrat voted straight Democrat. Okay. Simple statement. East Rockaway, Nassau County. Let's see. Is there another one here before we take a break? No. I guess that same texter was from East Rockaway.

All right, it's our informal, unofficial, thoroughly unscientific, Brian Lehrer Show, Exit Poll for Election Day 2023. Who or what are you voting for or against today? Keep the cost coming and we will add two reporters to the mix when we continue in a minute. Stay with us.

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Brian Lehrer on WNYC, and yes, it's our informal, unofficial, thoroughly unscientific Election Day Exit Poll. Who or what are you voting for or against today and why? 212-433-WNYC, electioneering, welcome here. 212-433-9692, call or text. Also with us now are Brent Johnson, political reporter in the State House Bureau of The Star-Ledger and their digital platform, nj.com, and Rebecca Lewis, senior State Politics Reporter at the news organization City & State New York. Brent and Rebecca, thanks for coming on WNYC today. Happy Election Day.

Brent Johnson: Same to you. Thank you.

Rebecca Lewis: Yes, happy Election Day. Best day of the year.

Brian Lehrer: Depends how it turns out or depending on who you are, it depends on how it turns out. Anyway, do you have a number one race, Rebecca, on your radar screen today?

Rebecca Lewis: Well, there are a number of different races, obviously, but one that I've been following certainly has been the Suffolk County Executive Race. One of the marquee races I would argue of this year. There are a handful of county executive races up across the state. This is on Long Island, which is going to be a key battleground for Congress next year. Suffolk County has definitely been trending much more Republican recently.

Last time there were local elections in 2021, the local legislature flipped to be controlled by Republicans. Previously was held by Democrats, but it still had a Democratic county executive, but he's now term-limited. Now you have Republicans and Democrats, Republican Ed Romaine and Democrat Dave Colon spending a lot of money to both try to win this seat and is seen as I don't like the term "bellwether", but it's certainly let's say a vibe check for what we might expect in the suburbs come the Congressional races next year.

Brian Lehrer: Vibe check. I like that. I might replace the term bellwether permanently with vibe check after you said that. Well, what's at stake besides being a vibe check for 2024, what's actually at stake in Suffolk County depending on whether there's a Democrat or Republican in the county executive's chair?

Rebecca Lewis: Well, the issues that are really at the heart of the race that aren't necessarily politics-related to Congress are pretty hyperlocal, and the two candidates have not necessarily differ too much on, for example, a sewer wastewater management plan. Both agree that they need to revive that, But certainly, Suffolk County has been home to a lot of corruption including in the town of Brookhaven where Dave-- not Dave Colon, sorry, Ed Romaine has been the county executive.

He has not been personally implicated in any wrongdoing, but certainly Dave Colon, the Democrat in the race has tried tying him to it. Say what you will about Albany, Long Island has, say what you will about Albany, say what you will about New York City, Long Island, born and raised there, has a long reputation of corruption. That is also one of the things that's at the heart of this race.

Certainly looking at who controls this county executive seat, who ultimately will have more control over Long Island will also, I think one of the bigger issues is how the executive

chooses to approach crime because crime has been a major issue on Long Island. Even though Nassau County, for example, neighboring county has been ranked, I believe, if not one of the safest counties in the entire country. Albany State level criminal justice reforms, bail reforms have really driven a lot of the shifts in local voting patterns and support for Republicans.

Certainly, we've seen Bruce Blakeman in Nassau County when he defeated the Democratic incumbent has taken much more hardline approach to who he supports in terms of taking hardline approaches with the migrant crisis, with criminal justice issues. We would expect, although Dave Colon, the Democrat, has really touted his background as a prosecutor and tough on crime, one would expect that a Republican in the seat would take further right position on some of these issues. Especially as we see with crime and like I said, the migrant crisis, which continues to affect areas outside of New York City and having county leaders say, "Please don't send them here."

That's another one of the issues that is in this race. Depending on who wins, I think that neither of them are particularly pleased about the idea of potentially housing migrants in their county. The Republican, as we have evidence for, is more likely to take a harder line approach and be less willing to work with Democrats in either Albany or in New York City.

Brian Lehrer: Here's a text that has come in from a Suffolk County voter, listener, writes, "I live in Huntington, I voted Democrat all the way, vote the Republicans out. They would not allow us to have a referendum so we could vote on whether or not to approve a clean water tax. That says the water around Long Island is being poisoned and all the creatures in it are dying off. The Republicans did not want the Democrats to come out and vote them out, so didn't allow a referendum on the ballot," says that Huntington voter.

Brent Johnson, let me go over to you. Again, Brent is a political reporter in the Statehouse bureau of The Star-Ledger and nj.com. Do you have a number one race on your radar screen today?

Brent Johnson: Yes, well, there are really two, one at the Jersey Shore between Democrat incumbent state senator Vin Gopal against Republican businessman Steve Dnistrian. It's kind of a microcosm of all the issues that have been-- There's a lot of culture war issues going on in New Jersey right now. Arguments about parental rights and education and the offshore wind development in New Jersey, as well as abortion on the Democratic side and some other things and that's a close one-- Gopal is the last Democrat of the Jersey Shore, which has become a really Republican area. It's a question whether he'll be able to hold on.

The other one that has national attention is Ed Durr who is the unknown Republican truck driver, who out of nowhere made national headlines when he beat Democratic State Senate President Steve Sweeney two years ago. He's now up for reelection against a former Democratic Assemblyman John Burzichelli who's running to unseat him. There's a lot of drama in that race with some past comments about abortion that Durr has made that have really caused controversy. There was even an accusation from Durr against Burzichelli that Burzichelli once produced a pornographic movie, which is not really true. He used to be a film producer and he did something about Chippendales.

Those are the traces that in typical Jersey fashion are very dramatic and controversial. The big question overall is whether Republicans can flip the Democratic controlled state legislature for the first time in two decades. There's been democratic control for 20 years so it seems like it'd be a long shot for Republicans. The fact that we're even talking about this shows how much the winds have changed the region.

Brian Lehrer: Well, on those winds changing and remember, we remember that Governor Murphy had a closer than expected reelection two years ago. What does this indicate about the public mood on any specific issues? Rebecca was just talking about crime in Suffolk County. What about in New Jersey? What's this? If it's not a red wave, red-- What's the word that people use? It's less than a wave, red--

Brent Johnson: Red ripple?

Brian Lehrer: Ripple? I'll take it.

Brent Johnson: Yes.

Brian Lehrer: What is it about?

Brent Johnson: Donald Trump is not been very popular in New Jersey, and in recent years you saw a blue state become even bluer. Now maybe that Trump has been out of office and things have started to change a bit, you've seen more of the red creep back in. The Republicans have also harbored a lot of anger over education and the environment. Maybe they're reaching out to suburban voters who are thinking a little bit more right-leaning now. It could be a sign for next year's elections for Congress and precedent or maybe the gubernatorial election in two years. Again, I think it would take a red wave to switch the legislature today, but it's very possible it could get a little more red-leaning.

Brian Lehrer: Let's take another couple of calls, then we'll continue to talk to you guys. Lanell in Brooklyn, you're on WNYC. Hi, Lanell.

Lanell: Hi, Brian. I'm in the district with Justin Brannan and with Ari Kagan. I haven't voted yet, but I will be voting and I intend to vote Brannan.

Brian Lehrer: Right. Just to give listeners a little background, Democratic city council member Justin Brannan, being challenged by another current city council member. They're running against each other because of redistricting. Ari Kagan, Kagan switched parties recently from Democrat to Republican, so Justin Brannan against Ari Kagan, and you're choosing Brannan, you said, Lanell, how come?

Lanell: Yes, because actually I was very upset when Kagan did that, because he won on the Democrat line, getting Democrats to vote for him and then promptly went to [unintelligible 00:36:26] the Republican Party. I will happily vote for Brannan to get him out because I think that was dishonest for him to do to the voters in the district. We didn't vote for a Republican. We didn't vote for someone who was going to switch to the Republican Party. I don't think that was fair for him to do that after people trusted him to come in as a Democrat and operate on democratic principle.

Brian Lehrer: Lanell, thank you very much. We're going to go next to Maryland, Port Washington. Even though that's on the island, she's calling a better race in Hoboken. Meryl, you're on WNYC. Hello.

Meryl: Hi. My niece is running for Hoboken City Council Ward 6.

Brian Lehrer: I said electioneering welcome here and people are taking it seriously. Go ahead.

Meryl: [laughs] She is doing this in Hoboken. She's lived in Hoboken for a number of years. She is running on the idea of new ideas and real progress. She wants to improve the quality of life in Hoboken and the safety in Hoboken. She's the voice for the younger generation, she's in her early 30s. She is a lawyer and she wants to keep the characteristics of Hoboken unique and small town feel. She wants to fight the line on taxes and to make Hoboken more affordable. She really strives for small business in her lovely town and she is a fabulous young woman. Anyone if you're listening, vote check, you vote for that Lauren Myers. [chuckles]

Brian Lehrer: Fabulous young woman says, "The completely unbiased aunt of the candidate." Meryl, thank you very much for your call. Rebecca Lewis from City & State we had that call on the Justin Brannan, Ari Kagan city council race. Can you talk about the one in the East Bronx? It's not a place I've seen competitive Republicans before that I can remember, but Kristy Marmorato challenging incumbent Democrat Marjorie Velázquez is reportedly a real race, Pelham Parkway, Allerton, City Island, Throgs Neck, Morris Park, other East Bronx neighborhoods. Why is that?

Rebecca Lewis: Well, I can first off just say, the fact that there is actually connection between the Brooklyn race and the Bronx race all the way on the opposite ends of the city, which is at a Brooklyn Democratic Party Chair Rodneyse Bichotte Hermelyn has not been campaigning actively for Justin Brannan, who was the Democrat running in Southern Brooklyn against Ari Kagan, but has appeared with Marjorie Velázquez in the Bronx, which has certainly raised some eyebrows.

In terms of the Marjorie Velázquez race, it's certainly an interesting one. Marjorie Velázquez when she was elected, she's progressive, but not a member of, what we would say, DSA left or one might say, the far left progressives. The Bronx is an interesting borough in that it is home to someone

like let's say Gustavo Rivera, who is a longtime advocate for the New York Health Act, which is not necessarily universally supported by everyone is considered something that would be very costly for the state. Universal healthcare is not necessarily something that's universally--

Brian Lehrer: Single-payer at the state level. Right?

Rebecca Lewis: Single payer, yes. It's also home to someone like Rubén Díaz Sr. who is still a registered Democrat, continues to be a Democrat but is very conservative, when he was in the state legislature voted against same-sex marriage, has a very dedicated followers from his church community and surrounding church communities. We've traditionally seen this dichotomy in Bronx's politics between it being democratically controlled but having more conservative democrats or having some more conservative ideologies and it seems like it's playing out again here.

It's a little unusual that someone who has ties to former President Donald Trump is endorsing the Republican candidate in a race that's now being seen as very competitive, but at the same time we never really know what to expect. Two years ago we had again in Brooklyn a QAnon conspiracy theorist almost win against a Democratic incumbent in a race that I think most observers did not expect to be that close. I think that particular race wound up coming down to a handful of votes.

I won't pretend to know what's going through people's minds at any given time and I don't try to predict what will happen. Certainly from the standpoint of the Bronx, a borough while generally solidly democratic also has some conservative leanings. It seems like it's starting to play out here in this race as we've seen it play out in other parts of the state that have traditionally been democratic or democratic leaning but with conservative tendencies.

Brian Lehrer: Brent, what are you watching with these Jersey school board races?

Brent Johnson: There is a lot of vitriol more so than usual in school board races. We've seen the broad issue of parental rights, which is saying that parents should have more control of their kids' education have really ratcheted up the tension and that could drive turnout into the legislative races which are not known to have a big turnout. School issues and even Democrats will say everything's exaggerated and that parents have always had say in the classroom and that there are anti-LGBTQ tropes going on here and Republicans will say that we should do everything for our kids. It's just a really heated topic in this election and it's getting more attention than usual in New Jersey, and it's a national thing too because you're seeing parental rights in this kind of argument about education becoming a national topic.

Brian Lehrer: I know, Rebecca, you wanted to mention a town supervisor race. Is it in Hempstead?

Rebecca Lewis: North Hempstead.

Brian Lehrer: North Hempstead.

Rebecca Lewis: The Town of North Hempstead pits the incumbent Jen DeSena against former supervisor Jon Kaiman who previously tried to run against George Santos but didn't win in the Democratic primary. It's an interesting race and certainly in Nassau County, it's in George Santos district. George Santos has really been kind of a specter over this race. It's one of the races that I know that Republicans are really paying attention to or at least putting a lot of money into because this seat, this supervisor seat has been held by Democrats for 30 years until 2021 when a registered Democrat who ran on the Republican line with the Republican support won that race to the surprise of many people as part of that 2021 red wave that hit Long Island and other suburbs to the north.

Now, Democrats are trying hard to get it back. They're attacking her. She was an early and staunch endorser of George Santos. She later disavowed him when the reporting about his lies came out, but that has not saved her from attacks for her connections to him about appearing with him about really giving full-throttle support for him and calling into question like her judgment. This is a traditionally democratic stronghold, this town of North Hempstead.

A lot of people are paying attention to what happens here to see what the attitudes are like after the 2021 red wave and in the midst of the ongoing George Santos controversy where voters' heads are at, whether they will vote for Jon Kaiman, the former Democratic supervisor or continue to back the Republican-backed Democratic supervisor Jen DeSena.

Brian Lehrer: Let's go through a couple of last calls from around the area, and I see at least one out of town. We're running out of time, so I'm going to ask you to do soundbite endorsements in this informal unofficial thoroughly unscientific exit poll. Ron in Rockland County, 20 seconds, use them well.

Ron: Hey there, Brian. I'm endorsing the Democrat for a supervisor in Justin Sweet in Rockland County Clarkstown because the incumbent Republican sponsored a term limits law reminiscence of Bloomberg of a few years ago, and then he himself overturned, went to court to overturn the same law that he had sponsored.

Brian Lehrer: So he could stay in office. Thank you. Susan calling from Kentucky, you're on WNYC. Hello from New York. Use your 20 seconds well.

Susan: Hey, Brian. Thank you for letting me get in here last minute. I just think it's important to highlight what's going on in the South. We have a critical governor's race going on today between our incumbent Democrat Andy Beshear. We have a super majority in Congress. Kentucky's legislature is all Republican, so we need to keep him for checks and balances, and the candidate that is running against him is Daniel Cameron who is funded by Pennsylvania billionaire Jeff Yass who is wanting the public schools to end so that he can make a bunch of money off of private school vouchers, which is how he makes his money apparently. It's really a serious issue that our public school systems are on the line, which the supermajority will follow through with that if Cameron wins, we'll lose our public schools. Thank you.

Brian Lehrer: Susan, thank you. A lot of people up here don't probably realize that Kentucky of all places has a Democratic governor currently, so voters like Susan trying to see that that remains the case. Last one, Cheryl's calling from that East Bronx district with Democratic incumbent Marjorie Velázquez and Republican challenger Kristy Marmorato. Cheryl, hi, you're on WNYC. Use your 20 seconds well.

Cheryl: Good morning. Unions back Velázquez, the anti-Union stance of most Republicans and conservatives that I've met and heard from are against unionization and make it harder and harder to maintain your union representatives. Velázquez worked hard in our district. She got what we needed and wanted, and this includes everybody all around our district, the opponent Republican conservative, when you say you run Republican conservative, you know those conservative issues are going to be the ones they push. They are opposed opposition to everything that I stand for. As a retiree in a Union, I'm voting Velázquez.

Brian Lehrer: Cheryl, thank you very much. All right, you're going to get the last word on this segment, Brent. My question is, for your last 20 seconds, could today's results statewide in Jersey affect who runs for governor from either party or how they run when Murphy is term-limited in two years?

Brent Johnson: Yes, absolutely. If Republicans get momentum, New Jersey, as you mentioned earlier in the broadcast, sometimes votes for Republican governors. It's a blue state but we've seen Chris Christie and Christie Whitman, Tom Kean in the last 40 years. Yes, if Republicans get momentum you could see a big push in 2025, and also it could affect next year's presidential race, because if you see the presidency go Republican, maybe New Jersey stays Democratic in the gubernatorial election. There's a lot of implications here.

Brian Lehrer: Brent Johnson, political reporter in the State House Bureau of The Star-Ledger and that's nj.com online, and Rebecca Lewis, senior state politics reporter at the news organization City & State New York. Thank you both very much for providing some information and context for our informal unofficial thoroughly unscientific Brian Lehrer show exit poll for Election Day 2023. Thanks, Rebecca, thanks, Brent.

Brent Johnson: Thanks

Rebecca Lewis: Thanks.

Brian Lehrer: Listeners, one more reminder that you can join me tonight at eight o'clock election night for an election night politics special and heads up political junkies pertinent to Brent's last answer there. This won't just be about this year's relatively small fry elections, though we definitely heard from a lot of callers and texters how much is at stake in various places.

We will also talk tonight a lot about the big fish who will be running next year and the year after that. Yes, we will talk about all these New Jersey school board elections where trans kids' rights and parental rights and other culture war issues are playing out. Don't overlook your school board elections. Yes, we will talk about the New York City Council elections and the implications for Mayor Adams's reelection, but also yes, we will talk about the new polling that shows Trump leading Biden in most of the key swing states and how the campaigns are adjusting based on that.

Trump made a campaign appearance apparently yesterday, which the judge thought was an appearance by a defendant in a trial, but Trump saw it as a campaign appearance. We'll talk about Westchester County Executive George Latimer, considering a primary challenge to Congressman Jamaal Bowman, partly over their differences on the Middle East. We'll talk about the suburban Republicans in Congress in our local swing districts, like Mike Lawler, Westchester's other member of Congress who wouldn't vote for Jim Jordan for speaker to keep some cred as a moderate, but then did back Mike Johnson, who's just as far to the right as Jordan and will take phone calls.

Politics junkies, heads up, Join me for an election night politics special about 2023, 2024, and 2025 eight o'clock tonight here on WNYC. More Brian Lehrer Show to come this morning right after this.

 

 

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