An Election Day Informal, Unofficial, Thoroughly Unscientific Exit Poll

( AP Photo/Ted Shaffrey / AP Photo )
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Brian Lehrer: It's The Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC. Good morning and happy Election Day, everyone, or as we began to call it, final Election Day, right? Since early voting is such a big thing now, the news reports say 42 million people have already voted nationwide. That doesn't even include the mail and ballots, which haven't been tabulated yet. As we do around here, it's our informal, unofficial, thoroughly-unscientific exit poll for the whole Brian Lehrer Show today.
We'll sprinkle in guests as well covering New York, Pennsylvania, the national picture, and the most interesting ballot measures that people are voting on around the country today. Did you know Californians are voting on a special tax to fund electric vehicle infrastructure like charging stations all over the state? That's just one we'll talk about later. Also, the very different abortion referendums in Michigan and Kentucky. They are worded very differently from each other. We'll touch on that and other valid questions on other topics too.
One state has a right-to-healthcare referendum. Another state has a right to collective bargaining on the ballot. We'll get into those later in the show and the precedents they might set. Let's get our informal, unofficial, thoroughly-unscientific exit poll going. We've got a few specific invitations for this that might be interesting and informative for everyone listening. Who made up your mind in any race in the last two weeks?
Late deciders between Hochul and Zeldin or in any other race. Let us hear from you, late deciders in the last two weeks. 212-433-WNYC, 433-9692. Also, who feels like you're voting for something in this election and who feels like you're voting against something? If you can put either side of that into words, call in on our informal, unofficial, thoroughly-unscientific exit poll, 212-433-WNYC.
I also want to extend a few special demographic invitations this morning. One is that even though we're a New York radio station and most of our listeners are in the tri-state area around here, I know we have listeners all over the country as well. We get phone calls from everywhere all the time. I want to extend a special invitation to anyone listening right now in any swing state or any swing district in the country. Who are you voting for there and what do you think is going to happen there? 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692.
Pennsylvanians, the lines are open for you. We'll check in with Pennsylvania with a reporter later in the hour too. Hello, Ohio. Who'd you choose in the Tim Ryan-JD Vance race and how close does it look to you? Hello, Georgia. All the things going on down there. New Hampshire, are you in the house? How's that Maggie Hassan vs. Don Bolduc race looking and who do you vote for there? We're going to play a clip from one of those candidates later to set up an issue.
Also, Black and Latino men. Here's a stretch from The New York Times article from over the weekend called In Final Push for Votes, Both Parties Court Black Men. We know Latino voters are very much in play this year, and particularly Latino men that the Republicans are trying to court in larger numbers from the Democratic Party, which still should get a majority, but how big of a majority is the question?
This Times article on Black men says, "Democrats and Republicans see Black male voters as key in tight races." The article says, "Democratic candidates are fighting to energize Black male voters, and Republicans, sensing an opportunity, are working to persuade them to reconsider political allegiances." Now, Black men have voted around 91% for Joe Biden, for example, in that presidential race.
Republicans are trying to pick off just a few more points worth to affect tight races where that might make a difference. The Times article says, "That has led to an unusual moment in the political spotlight for Black male voters, with both parties tailoring their messages, especially around the economy, toward Black men," and it goes on from there. It's our informal, unofficial, thoroughly-unscientific Election Day exit poll for people who have decided in the last two weeks.
Listeners and swing suburban areas, people voting for something or against something, people from any swing state or a district around the country, and Black and Latino men anywhere of any party, 212-433-WNYC. Plus, at any time, anybody can call and describe an incident or anything interesting at your polling place this morning. Electioneering welcome here at 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692.
In addition to the calls, you can tweet us. We'll watch our Twitter feed go by and pick out any answers to any of those questions from there too that we think are interesting and informative. As your calls are coming in, we'll talk to WNYC senior politics reporter Brigid Bergin for a few minutes now. Brigid has also been hosting our election season call-in show, The People's Guide to Power, on Sundays at noon. Hi, Brigid. Happy Election Day.
Brigid Bergin: Happy Election Day, Brian, one of my favorite days of the year.
Brian Lehrer: Indeed. First of all, is there any breaking news from any polling place yet this morning in the New York area, which is what you cover? With so much at stake in the state this year, do things seem to be working smoothly? Are there any incidents of intimidation or any election morning news to report?
Brigid Bergin: I think the biggest news that we can report is a good thing that the New York City Board of Elections is providing some updates on actual voter turnout during intervals throughout the day. So far, we've seen about 200,000 New York City voters turn out to vote just in the hours that the polls have been open. That's between 6:00 AM and 9:00 AM. That's when that data came out.
In terms of problems, we're seeing that same standard, spotty reports of lines in a few places, some technical issues. Of course, a poll site here and there did not open on time. There's a report of a site in Carroll Gardens that was having issues with the generator. They were asking voters to come back because, of course, without the generator, they could not work there, the actual voting machines because these are electronic voting machines. These things happen in every election. It's a large event.
There are 1,200 poll sites across New York City. They are human beings, who are administering these elections. We are fallible. There are going to be some issues. In terms of the concerns around intimidation and, certainly, the types of things we saw reports of in other parts of the country. We have not seen reports of that yet, but we're keeping our antenna up. We're asking our listeners to let us know. If there are things that we can report and confirm and think it's worth letting our listeners know, we will do that.
Brian Lehrer: I mentioned the massive early voting turnout nationwide in the intro. Did we have that in New York too in the early voting period that ended on Sunday?
Brigid Bergin: What we had in New York is the second-highest early voting turnout we've had since we've had early voting. Keep in mind, we've only had early voting since 2019. We had about over 400,000 people turnout for early voting. Now, that's lower than the number we had in the presidential election. Overall turnout in that race was about 3 million voters, 62% of the turnout. That's high turnout for New York City. The governor's race in 2018, for example, when we did not have early voting, we had about 2.1 million voters turn out here in New York City, about 6.3 million voters statewide.
I think it is fair to say we had decent early voting turnout here in New York City and then another 200,000, so 50% of the voters who turned out for all of early voting turned out in the first three hours of today. The numbers, I think, are looking not bad. We don't want to make any predictions quite yet, but some decent early voting numbers. People are learning that this is another option for them when they want to cast their ballot.
Brian Lehrer: Now, you are our resident democracy wonk here at WNYC. Listeners, if you didn't know that, I hereby dub Brigid Bergin our resident democracy wonk. That's because of all the reporting she's done on how well elections are run in New York City and New York State and other state-of-democracy stories. You said on one of your People's Guide to Power episodes a few weeks ago that in states from Florida to Arizona but also right here in New York, the right to vote is facing new challenges. Some lawyers are using the tools at their disposal in court to defend those rights. Do you see specific voting rights limitations or challenges in New York that could affect any of the races today?
Brigid Bergin: There was one particular case that I was following closely along with my colleague, Jon Campbell, related to absentee ballots. It was a challenge that was filed by the state Republican and conservative parties and then a host of their candidates and some county party committees. It sought to make some last-minute changes to our absentee ballot laws. They wanted to change when those ballots were counted.
They were challenging one of the excuses that people used when they applied for those absentee ballots, the temporary illness that was used largely during the COVID-19 pandemic. Ultimately, the appellate court said that those laws should stand, and so those laws are safeguarded and our absentee ballot law that exists remains. It could have been and I think was somewhat disruptive to people paying a lot of attention to how those laws work.
We've also seen incidents where, for example, some lawyers from the NYCLU had to go to court to make sure that a poll site that was supposed to exist on the campus of Vassar College actually was there. It's becoming something of a trend in certain parts of the state where people have to go to court to force elections administrators to follow the law the way it has been written.
There's a lot of discussion about whether or not a bipartisan system where you have one Democrat and one Republican making all the decisions is the best system to run an election. It's been subject to a lot of scrutiny every time there is a problem and I think will continue to be a source of conversation. The question is, will it be a source of action for lawmakers who are used to and immersed in that system?
Brian Lehrer: What college did you say whether the polling place will open question was at?
Brigid Bergin: That was Vassar College, so that's up in Poughkeepsie. That was a Dutchess County issue. Again, these are issues that should stay on our radar, particularly when we have such an important statewide race that every vote will play a huge role in.
Brian Lehrer: That kind of thing comes up. I don't know if it was exactly for this reason, but that kind of thing comes up increasingly, it seems to me, in states around the country. I know in New Hampshire over the last few years, there was a big battle over whether college students whose parents live in other states but who go to college in New Hampshire would be allowed to register to vote in New Hampshire. That was a thrust by Republicans in the state. I don't even know if it succeeded or failed.
Because college students tend to vote more for Democrats than for Republicans or than people in other demographics, they were trying to make it so that even if they were living full-time, if they had an apartment off campus, whatever, or living in the dorms in most places gives you the right to register as a voter in that state to block that because the Republicans didn't want college students whose parents live in other states voting there. My ears perked up when you said, "Will the voting place open at Vassar College?"
Before you go, how will the absentee ballots get counted in New York this election? The system for that caused many days of delay in knowing the results in the mayoral primary last year. We will talk later in the show about how delays in counting absentee ballots may be crucial to how elections are determined in many swing states around the country and also to false claims of stolen elections.
Brigid Bergin: Here in New York, the law that I was talking about that was subject to that lawsuit made a really important and significant change to help speed up that counting process. Now, the local boards of elections were able to canvas and process, inspect absentee ballots as they were returned to determine that the voters signed it and dated it and all that information that is necessary for them to actually open that envelope and then put the ballot itself in the pile to be counted to make sure that was all accurate.
They have been doing that as they've been receiving absentee ballots. That canvas process needed to happen within four days of receiving the ballot. Then they did a scan of ballots that were received before early voting started. They will do another scan of the ballots that have come in since early voting actually tonight. There will be a big chunk of absentee ballot votes that will be included in the unofficial election night totals that we get tonight. Again, that information will include a big chunk of the absentee ballot totals, all of the early voting data, and, of course, everyone who voted today. Go ahead.
Brian Lehrer: Well, I was just going to say, so that should make it easier to know the actual outcomes tonight even if the governor's race or the congressional races or any other race is close?
Brigid Bergin: That's right and it's really important. One of the things that we will likely know and I've heard rumblings that we may actually, at least here in the city, get some information about how many of the absentee ballots are outstanding that are not included in the count and how many are included in the count. We should have a little bit more of an official number. There was a lot of speculation in some of the primaries earlier this year when this law was also in effect about what that delta was.
For example, in the 10th congressional primary, where there was a lot of question about Yuh-Line Niou, who had come in second place behind Dan Goldman, did she have the votes to close that gap? A lot of people are trying to do some back-of-the-napkin math, whereas the Board of Elections actually has some data that could help guide that process and guide that reporting. We may get some of that information, but either way, we will have a more clear number than I think in other parts of the country.
That doesn't mean that in close races, we will have a definitive answer tonight. It's important that every vote is counted and absentee ballots can be postmarked today. They can be dropped off at poll sites today. Those absentee ballots will not be included in the information that we get tonight. As long as absentee ballots are postmarked today and they are received by next Tuesday here in New York, those absentee ballots will be valid. There is still a potential lag, but that would mean that the race has to be extremely, extremely close.
Brian Lehrer: WNYC senior politics reporter who I hereby have dubbed our resident democracy wonk, Brigid Bergin, who also hosts The People's Guide to Power on Sundays at noon, has been hosting during this election season. What do you have on that, Brigid? One more to go for post-election this Sunday?
Brigid Bergin: Yes, we are going to try to make sense of everything that happens today, Brian. I will be joined by Kai Wright from Notes from America and the always informative Dr. Christina Greer, Fordham political science professor, to break it all down. Of course, we'll be talking to listeners again on Sunday about how they're making sense of it all.
Brian Lehrer: Great, Brigid, thanks a lot.
Brigid Bergin: Thank you.
Brian Lehrer: All right. Now, to you in our informal, unofficial, thoroughly-unscientific Election Day exit poll. Electioneering welcome here. Nicki in Nassau County, you're on WNYC. Hi, Nicki, thanks for calling in. Happy Election Day.
Nicki: Happy Election Day, Brian. Good morning. I voted the straight Democratic ticket. I was very struck by not knowing most of the names. I knew all the Republican names on the ballot because their PR has been excellent. I knew almost none of the names of the Democrats, except for Kathy Hochul. The Democrats need to do a better job with their PR. It's abysmal. It's horrible.
Brian Lehrer: Did you see Hochul signs? Did you see Zeldin signs in your neighborhood?
Nicki: I have not seen one Hochul sign. I live in Valley Stream, New York right there in that area that it's kind of a battleground right now.
Brian Lehrer: Right across the border from Queens on the South Shore, right?
Nicki: Exactly. I have not seen one, not even one sign for Kathy Hochul. It's horrible.
Brian Lehrer: Thank you for checking in, appreciate it. Danny in Murray Hill in Manhattan, you're on WNYC. Hi, Danny.
Danny: Hi, Brian. Thanks for taking my call. I voted for Representative Zeldin. I have lots of problems with his stance on certifying President Biden's election results and everything that the GOP stands for. As an Asian American, I feel Democratic Party has done a really poor job, including Governor Hochul, on combating anti-Asian hate crime this year. This is a big issue in the Asian-American community. I don't know if we just don't represent enough numbers to matter in New York State, but I feel Democrats didn't address this issue strongly enough. As a protest vote, I voted for Representative Zeldin.
Brian Lehrer: I see that you told our screener that you were answering my question, inviting people who've decided just in the last two weeks in any race. Did you decide just in the last two weeks to vote for Lee Zeldin?
Danny: Yes, I think it was a message that Zeldin's campaign was putting forward about how crime was a really important issue to them. I'm sure it is for the Democrats as well, but their messaging has been really poor, I feel, throughout this entire campaign. I think they've just been focusing on abortion. Even if Zeldin becomes the governor, I don't really feel abortion rights will be rolled back so strongly in New York State. I feel the Democrats really missed an opportunity to depict the issue that's a really hot button right now.
Brian Lehrer: Just on the question of anti-Asian hate that you raised, some Democrats listening might say, "But wait, it was the Republicans led by Donald Trump calling COVID the China virus and all of that, who really triggered this current era of anti-Asian hate crimes, and so we should blame the Republicans, not empower them by voting for Lee Zeldin." What would you say to a Democrat who argued that to you?
Danny: I don't disagree with that, but I feel like politics is really local. Regardless of what the national GOP does, in New York City, in Manhattan, people are afraid to go out in the streets or take the subway. I think this local issue has to be addressed by local elected officials.
Brian Lehrer: Danny, thank you for checking in, really appreciate it. Caesar in Ronkonkoma, you're on WNYC. Sorry, is it Caesar or is it Cesar?
Caesar: Caesar is right.
Brian Lehrer: Hi there. Happy Election Day.
Caesar: Happy Election Day, Brian. I'm a big fan, man. This is awesome. Awesome to be on the radio. First time calling. I'll get to it. I was telling a screener that I'm kind of tired or I'm voting against using fear to activate politicians' constituents. In this case, I would be voting against using fear or voting against Lee Zeldin because he's really just putting fear of crime waves and whatnot. The people that he's electrifying in his district are some of the safest parts of New York. I guess it's a battle or two sides of this coin here.
Brian Lehrer: Caesar, thanks for checking in. Glad you got on. Call us again from Ronkonkoma, really appreciate it. Some tweets that are coming in in response to things that have already been said. One listener tweets, "I am Asian American. In response to the Asian-American caller who said he's voting for Zeldin as a protest, why is he voting for the party that used anti-Asian rhetoric that led to the increased Asian hate?"
Somebody else writes about the whole Democratic-versus-Republican scene right now. This listener writes, "It's the inept versus the insane." Someone else writes about this question of where college students should register in their parents' state or in the state where the college is if they're from a different state.
"Interesting that states don't want college students registering to vote when they call and force to serve students for local jury duty. My daughter had to serve on Northampton, Massachusetts jury duty even though she was registered to vote in New Jersey." Interesting point. All right, we're also inviting voters from swing districts or swing states anywhere in the country to call in. Here's Jody in Bucks County in Pennsylvania. Jody, you're on WNYC. Happy Election Day.
Jody: Hey, Brian, it's good to talk to you. Thank you so much for taking my call. I am originally from Northern California. I moved to Northeastern PA in 2018. It's a different world voting on the East Coast versus the West Coast because one thing, the polling places, you have to run through a gauntlet of Republicans who are trying to-- I don't know. It feels like a full-contact sport just getting into my polling place. That's number one.
Brian Lehrer: Can you describe that? Can you describe that a little more? Because probably listeners, a lot of places, have seen on television or heard about armed poll watchers in Arizona and things like that. What's actually happening that says it's like running the gauntlet to get to your polling place?
Jody: I voted in every election since I've been in Pennsylvania, so it's three or four times. There's always six or seven people who are stationed right outside the door. There's no bumper. There's no space. I thought that there was a law about you have to be at so many feet away from the polling place, but they're literally three feet from the door. There's usually five or six people, and then--
Brian Lehrer: People representing the different candidates handing out last-minute ballot cards or voting flyers?
Jody: Right.
Brian Lehrer: Got it.
Jody: Yes, but you have to thread your way through this group of people who are trying to get your attention. As a Californian, they don't do that in California, not where I'm from. There's that.
Brian Lehrer: Welcome to the intense East Coast, Jody. [laughs]
Jody: I'm telling you. Yes, being in Pennsylvania, it really feels like my vote matters. The reason I call though is that I've just been really worried this election about John Fetterman winning and Josh Shapiro winning because I really feel like the GOP-led State House, once they get complete control, abortion is going to be off the table completely.
Our personal rights are going to be taken away. Forget about environmental issues. The same issues that Pennsylvania's been struggling with for decades will be a non-starter. It seems like nobody really cares. It's all about the gas prices. I feel like the gas prices are so variable and they go up and down. I'm 58 years old. I've been through a few recessions and a few bouts of inflation and they come and go.
Brian Lehrer: It sounds like, Jody, to the question I posed earlier that anybody can answer if they choose, do you feel like you're voting more for something or more to stop something this year? It sounds like you're voting more to stop something, more to prevent something that you're afraid of.
Jody: I guess so. Yes, I guess so. I guess I'm voting to prevent a rollback of our rights and social services.
Brian Lehrer: Jody, thank you for your call from Bucks County, really appreciate it. We're going to have a Philadelphia inquire a reporter on in just a minute to talk more about those contentious and very nationally important senate and gubernatorial races in Pennsylvania right now. That's coming up. Let's go to another caller first in our informal, unofficial, thoroughly-unscientific Election Day exit poll. Jay in Woodhaven, you're on WNYC. Hi, Jay.
Jay: Hi, Brian. How are you? Love your show.
Brian Lehrer: Thank you. What you got for us?
Jay: Yes, I'm a Hispanic. Been here in the States for over 40 years. I cannot fathom why any Hispanic or Latino would vote a Republican when all the rhetoric and all the nasty stuff has been spewed out against immigrants comes only from the Republican side, so I don't understand. I can't comprehend why a lot of Hispanics, it seems, that are voting for Republicans. I don't understand that at all.
Brian Lehrer: Maybe there aren't a lot in Woodhaven. Are you having any conversations like this with members of your family or other Hispanic guys who you know because we see the results? It doesn't even have to depend on the polls, which we know are unreliable, but the actual results in recent elections, where significant minorities of Hispanics and especially Hispanic men, probably because of their perception of who's better for the economy are going GOP even if they think, "The leaders of the Republican Party hate my people." Have you had this conversation with anybody you know? If so, how did that go?
Jay: Yes, I have. Just to touch base on the economy, the points of the economy. When Obama was president, we were doing fantastic. Trump inherited an excellent economy from Trump. Even though we might be in a downturn, Republican principles and Republican presidents have done better on the economy side. I've had conversations with family members also regarding religious beliefs. A lot of them Catholic that they want to vote a Republican because of the whole idea with abortion.
I countered to them this message. I said, "Listen, I'm a religious person. I'm an LDS and Mormon, but we believe that the most important and sacred thing is the ability to choose, okay? How can you take away from women the ability to choose, whether they want to have an abortion, or how can you put yourself in their shoes? You have to have the ability to choose. It's to the woman to choose whether they want to have--
Brian Lehrer: Jay, thank you. Thank you very much for checking in with us. We really appreciate it. Call us again. A couple of people were calling to report problems, I guess, you'd call it. Not really incidents, but some problems at their polling places. Let's see what's going on. Keith in Rockaway, New Jersey, you're on WNYC. Hi, Keith.
Keith: Good morning, Brian. How are you?
Brian Lehrer: Good. What you got?
Keith: I went to vote this morning and we actually have new voting machines that were brought in. These actually will print out a paper ballot. After you make your selections and you press Cast My Vote, it prints everything out, and then you're supposed to review it. Once you review it, you click Okay, and then it'll submit it. There's an electronic and a paper ballot version. I actually voted straight down the ticket for a Democrat.
I noticed that for two of the elections, one of them didn't have a party affiliation even though they were Democrat. More importantly, the candidate for mayor came up as a Republican. I called the poll worker in and she said, "Oh, I've not seen this before." I said, "Okay." Well, maybe nobody reviews their stuff. I don't know. We invalidated my vote and they counted the county Board of Elections. Representative came in. They took a look at it and they're like, "Well, maybe Rep means representative." I'm like, "No," because all the other ones say "Dem" in front of them.
Basically, eventually, what came back to me was that there was a glitch. That was their official stance. I revoted again, came up again as a Republican. I think it was actually, probably, a data entry issue. The thing I was concerned about is if it's a close race, based upon all the nonsense that I've seen that's been going on, how they're invalidating votes, I worry that someone's going to take a look at this ballot and say, "Well, this ballot isn't going to be valid because, obviously, it's wrong."
Brian Lehrer: Because it's got the Democratic candidate's name, but on the Republican line.
Keith: Correct.
Brian Lehrer: Interesting. Is that for the mayor of Rockaway, New Jersey? Is that the actual jurisdiction?
Keith: That's correct.
Brian Lehrer: Very interesting, Keith. Something absolutely to watch for. I'm going to make sure we get that over to Nancy Solomon and Karen Yi at our New Jersey desk. They see what kind of an issue there may be there. Keith, thank you for reporting that to us. We appreciate it. Let's do one more with an apparent polling place issue. Meg in Hightstown, New Jersey, you're on WNYC. Hi, Meg. Happy Election Day if it is a happy Election Day.
Meg: Happy Election Day to you too, Brian. I'm calling to report that all of the voting machines in Mercer County are not working. Both my daughter and my husband are poll workers. My daughter is in the Yardville section of Hamilton. My husband is working in Pennington. They reported at six o'clock and the machines have not worked since that time.
Brian Lehrer: The entire Mercer County, none of the voting machines are working?
Meg: Right, and there was some report that part of Camden County, but I haven't actually confirmed that, they are having voters cast emergency ballots, which are filled in and placed someplace safe, I'm told.
Brian Lehrer: Your phone isn't working so well either. Just tell me. When you say "emergency ballots," are they paper ballots that have been printed out?
Meg: Yes.
Brian Lehrer: Meg, thank you very much. We'll obviously cover that too if all the polling sites in Mercer County are not working. Meg, thank you very much. All right, we'll continue in a minute with our informal, unofficial, thoroughly-unscientific Brian Lehrer Show exit poll for Election Day 2022. We have a reporter from The Philadelphia Inquirer standing by to talk about those contentious and really important races in Pennsylvania. Then we'll continue to take more of your calls. Stay with us.
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