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Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer on WNYC. Even here in New York and New Jersey, in a solidly blue part of the country, as far as the presidential election is concerned there are some hotly contested races that could be decided by relatively few votes, some ballot questions as well, like legalizing recreational cannabis use in New Jersey, and even a political party or two that may face an existential threat. We will explain.

To preview these races and potential consequences, we are joined now and delighted to be by Nancy Solomon, managing editor for New Jersey Public Radio and WNYC, and Errol Louis, host of NY1's Inside City Hall and their podcast You Decide. Errol was also a Daily News columnist. Hi, Errol. Hi, Nancy.

Nancy Solomon: Hi, Brian.

Errol Louis: Good morning.

Brian: I want to start with this existential threat to the Working Families Party in New York State and a few other parties that don't happen to be named Democratic or Republican. This is because the rules changed this year for how many votes each minor party needs to get in each election in order to maintain a ballot line for the next election cycle. Here is a clip of New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams on the show a couple of weeks ago, urging voters for Joe Biden to not vote for him on the Democratic party line, but on the Working Families Party line which he also has. Listen.

Jumaane Williams: The WFP is a place where people can go, who really believe in the ideals of working folks, of folks who have been left on the margins, to make sure everyone has a piece of the equity pie. That's where the Working Families Party stands for and that's why a lot of the mainstream Democrats, like the governor, feel threatened by it. They dare to challenge the governor and he, in turn, decided that he would try to get rid of them by raising the threshold of which people need to vote on their lines.

Brian: Public Advocate Jumaane Williams here recently. Errol Louis, can you explain for people for whom this is new, what's at stake here, and whether, if they're going to vote for Joe Biden and haven't voted yet, whether they do it on the Democratic line or the Working Families line?

Errol: Oh, sure. What's at stake is something that's called ballot status meaning if you recertify as a political party in New York, a third party in particular, you then have the right to run people for all kinds of different offices. You could run judges and you can run people for city council and town council, the county legislature, and everything else, without having to go through an arduous a signature gathering process. It makes it a lot easier and it makes wielders of those official third parties really quite powerful because they can make alliances with the mainstream candidates, the Democrats and the Republicans. They can add their votes to them and in the process, they can actually ask for different policies different, frankly, jobs and other kinds of political stuff that comes from the major parties.

We've had this for a long, long time. What has changed, though, in the last year is that instead of recertifying your ballot status which you could do pretty easily by getting 50,000 votes on your line in every gubernatorial race, the ante has been upped. Now you have to get a lot more votes, something along the lines of, in the case of the Working Families Party upwards of 130, 150, 170,000 votes and you have to do it in a presidential year.

These requirements are things that the WFP and the other parties like the Conservative Party and the Independence Party, they never had to deal with this before. They are now all scrambling to try and get people not just to vote for them, but to vote for them in big enough numbers that they can continue to have ballot status after this year. I think that's a pretty succinct summary of what's at stake. It's easier said than done. Their big problem is that I voted early this year. You have to look past row A, which is where the Democratic line is and that's the first place you see Joe Biden, you have to skip all the way over to, I think row D in order to find the Working Families Party line.

Brian: Even though the Working Families Party has been the one making some noise and getting some press around this, it also applies to the conservative minor parties like the Conservative Party itself? Is Trump also on the conservative Party line, for example, and people could choose that and they're going to lose their ballot line too if they don't get that 100,000 plus votes?

Errol: Exactly right. Now, they haven't made a big show of pushing for that. At least not not in the forums that I frequent. On the other hand, they're more likely to get it because the Conservative Party has been pretty potent for a number of decades. The Working Families Party is a relative newcomer compared to the work of the Conservative Party. Then there are a handful of others like the Independence Party, not to be confused with being an independent who's aligned with no party.

The Independence Party, I think, has a real problem. They didn't choose to align with either Biden or Trump. They've got someone whose name most folks don't know and I can't frankly recall right now, which illustrates the problem. You got the Green Party, which faces a similar kind of problem. We'll see what's left, but the intention, frankly, in this change was to winnow down the number of third parties that are active in New York State. That could in fact be one of the outcomes after tomorrow.

Brian: Before we go on to other issues and other races and bring in Nancy Solomon on New Jersey, is this as simple bottom line as Cuomo changing the rules to try to kill the Working Families Party because they ran Cynthia Nixon against him and things like that?

Errol: Well, there's a little bit more to it than that. Division is probably too strong of a word, but there are factions within the Democratic Party that have been going back and forth. It includes more than just governor Cuomo. For example, the Working Families Party which claims to represent working families, had a bunch of the unions. The big unions that helped found and build the party, they left a couple of years ago. They pulled out their membership. They're no longer part of it. If you've got all the unions on one side and the Working Families Party on the other, who's the real voice of the working class?

I guess the example that most people would understand and identify with is that in 2018, the Working Families Party endorsed Joe Crowley against a newcomer called Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Who was the real working-class voice? Who was the real progressive in that race? The voters decided. The Working Families Party, they've got to do some maneuvering the same way every other political actor in the state does to define the constituency, keep that constituency happy and deal with those that they are at odds with, in this case, Governor Cuomo.

Brian: All right. Listeners, we can take your questions or comments about any race on the ballot in New York or New Jersey, other than for president. 646-435-7280. We'll come back to New York. Let's go now to New Jersey's 2nd Congressional District, which includes parts of historically red South Jersey, or at least purple South Jersey. The race there is between Democrat, Amy Kennedy, and Republican Jeff Van Drew, the incumbent. Now some of you know Van Drew was elected as a Democrat two years ago. Now he's pro-Trump. He switched parties during this term. Nancy Solomon, what in the world is going on there?

Nancy: Polling indicates the racists too close to call. It's one of only two congressional races, we have 12 congressional districts in New Jersey, and there are two races that the national Republican party is putting money into, the 2nd Congressional District and Van Drew is one of them. Yes, you have a lot of attention and a lot of anger among Democrats who actually outnumber Republicans in that district, even though it is a very purple district, who were really mad about Van Drew switching parties.

This is a man who was considered the most conservative Democrat in the state legislature when he was in the state Senate and so voters knew what they were getting when they elected him, but the disloyalty of switching parties during such a partisan time is really what's animating this, this race. He's running against Amy Kennedy, who is a local woman, former teacher, comes from many generations lived in that district and she married into the Kennedy family. She married Patrick Kennedy, son of Ted. She has some national support and some big money behind her, and a lot of Democratic enthusiasm in the district.

Brian: That's one seat that a Republican could lose in New Jersey, one that a Democrat might lose is in the 7th Congressional District. That's where the incumbent is Democrat Tom Malinowski, up against Republican Tom Kean Jr. That district, for people who don't know it, spans mostly the northwestern portion of the state, including Hunterdon County, along with portions of Essex, Morris, Somerset, Union further, and Warren County. Both parties have targeted this district, this race as one they have a shot at winning. Nancy, most of the Democratic incumbents in New Jersey do not have close races. Why does Tom Malinowski?

Nancy: Well, I guess he was seen as vulnerable because congressional members in their first reelection, after he was elected in 2018, are considered at their most vulnerable. Tom Kean Jr., his opponent lives in the district and is a very well-known state senator, but also the son of the most popular former Governor Tom Kean Sr.. He ran for Senate several years ago and lost and I think--

Brian: He lost that, yes.

Nancy: Yes, he's been chafing at, he wants to move up, and maybe saw this is his last opportunity to do that, or at least a good opportunity to do it, let's put it that way. Meanwhile, since 2016, this district, and many districts in New Jersey have become more blue. It now has more Democrats than Republicans than it did in 2016. It's a switch of about 26,000 voters from the deficit to now the advantage that Democrats have.

Malinowski is a pretty popular congressman. He did what was considered fairly courageous at the time, he came out in support of impeachment very early. In a purple district, that was considered pretty courageous. He has really gained quite a bit of support there. It's an interesting race because this is what we call Republican Horse Country. This is really the base of old school moderate republicanism that used to typify the New Jersey Republican Party.

Brian: Christine Whitman comes from there, right?

Nancy: Exactly, and of course, Tom Kean Sr. This is the part of the Republican Party that has deserted the party over Trump. Yet, Tom Kean Jr. has endorsed President Trump and has always been more conservative than his moderate Republican father. Now he's really getting squeezed and he also ran ads funded by the national Republican Party that spread a lie perpetrated by QAnon. That was offensive to many people in the district, both Republicans and Democrats. Tom Kean Jr. refused to pull the ad after The Washington Post completely debunked what it was saying about Malinowski. Malinowski received death threats over it. That has hurt him. Well, we'll see if it hurt him, but it appears to have.

Brian: Errol, I'm going to flip back to New York, and I'm actually going to skip over the two hotly contested congressional races in the immediate New York City area because I'm going to assume our listeners are fairly familiar with them. We've had both candidates from both races on this show and these races have been getting a lot of press, the Democratic incumbent Max Rose on Staten Island and part of South Brooklyn against the challenger Nicole Malliotakis, the Republican. On Long Island for the seat that Republican Peter King is retiring from, Democrat Jackie Gordon and Republican Andrew Garbarino. That's the other really hot race in this area. They were both on the show last week.

What I want to ask you about next is something that a lot of our New York listeners may not know is at stake and that is, that while the Democrats already hold a majority in the New York State Senate, if they flip a few more republican seats, they may have a supermajority in the state Senate. Now, I bet the majority of people listening right now are thinking,

"Huh? State Senate? Difference between majority and supermajority? Why should I care about this again?" Could you fill us in?

Errol: Yes. Well, yes, you should care because the politicians care. The Democrats hold 40 seats in the 63-member state Senate. If they get two more then they'll have two-thirds of the chamber. When you have two-thirds of the chambers, it's what's called a veto-proof majority, meaning even if they pass a piece of legislation right now, if the governor vetoes that bill, you have to scramble and push and press and try to figure out how to get to 42 votes in order to override that veto.

If you've got 42 though in your back pocket, and you're the conference leader, if you're Andrea Stewart-Cousins, then when you're negotiating with the governor, he has a little bit less power in a significant way, he can't threaten necessarily to veto a bill. On the flip side of that, the Senate majority can say we will override you, we will pass this law over your objection, we will in fact have show that you are powerless against our supermajority.

Brian: What bills or potential issues do you think would most likely be in play in that scenario? What could New York Democrats pass that Cuomo would veto?

Errol: Well, the one that would be debated, and it's by no means clear that they'd have a supermajority even within the Democratic Conference, but a tax increase, a wealth tax, [unintelligible 00:16:50] tax, a higher income tax. That's number one. Number two is, maybe a substantial bump in funding for education. Now, of course, a lot of this, if you're talking about spending priorities, a lot of that is going to be moot or at least postponed until there could be some resolution to the likely huge deficits that we're facing because of the slowdown in the pandemic, but once that's resolved, how those priorities will be sorted out will be up to the governor and the legislature. Right now, the governor has been given almost carte blanche to make all kinds of spending cuts.

Well, that would change after January, if he's sitting across the table from a supermajority in the Senate because at that point, they can say, "Number one, we're taking your power back, we're going to help make this budget together. Number two, if you don't like what we're doing, we may turn around and tell you tough luck," because there are supermajorities, the democrats hold both the state Assembly and the state Senate.

It's enough concern to the governor, Brian, that he is thought to be behind a last-minute effort, a last-minute surge of money, of Republican money, that's going into some districts to try and stop the supermajority. If you think about it, why would outside money go to try and shore up Republican candidates for state Senate if there's no possible chance of them winning a majority?

The answer is to stop a supermajority. It's thought, as is often the case, that somewhere in the background the governor may be, I guess, directing some of this or at least benefiting from some of these machinations.

Brian: There's a story, Andrew Cuomo behind the scenes trying to get some Republicans elected to the state Senate. Can you briefly name a few districts in the downstate area that are the hotly contested ones, where it could really go either way, just so people's ears can perk up if they're living in those areas, and they know that-

Errol: Oh yes, sure.

Brian: -whichever way they want this to go, which could be either way, that their vote really counts this year for state Senate?

Errol: This doesn't necessarily track with what I just laid out. You'd have to really look and see where the Republican money is going and where they're going to really lay their chips down in this final day,but District 3 out in Suffolk County, you have an incumbent named Monica Martinez, who is under a quite a lot of pressure and this is a district that went for Trump by about six points last time.

It's one way, there are more Democrats than Republicans, but it was an open seat. It's one that often swings conservative and probably overlaps with some of the congressional action out there. It's entirely logical for Republicans to try and pick that one-off. There's an interesting one, it's not a flip necessarily, but District 41, which is in Dutchess County, and Western Putnam County, a real interesting grudge match between Susan Serino, who's the incumbent and a Democrat who was coming after her, Karen Smythe, for the second time. Now, Serino beats Smythe by less than 700 votes two years ago, so it's a grudge match, which is always interesting.

It's also one, Brian, where you may want to do a story on this. I think I might too. It is believed that they've had a surge of new Democratic voters, people moving up into Duchess and into the Hudson Valley, fleeing New York City because of the pandemic. There were some folks up there who say that they've picked up about 4,000 Democratic voters, so we'll see if that's going to make a difference.

Brian: That is pretty interesting. I've also heard of surprisingly or maybe it's not surprising anymore, but large numbers of people from New York and inner New Jersey moving to swing states, not in order to vote, but because this is what the pandemic for their personal reasons led them to do. But these tend to be Democrats from our area, just statistically, and could the pandemic caused a shift in any swing state based on the migration that has just taken place this year, if it was early enough for people to register, to vote in those places.

All right. With Errol Louis from NY1 and Nancy Solomon, managing editor for New Jersey Public Radio. Let's flip back to New Jersey. Nancy, New Jersey voters have some decisions to make, not just on the candidates running for office, but also on some ballot initiatives. The big one is legal, recreational cannabis. What are the regional implications of that ballot measure even for New York? What are you seeing in terms of campaigning for and against that?

Nancy: Well, it's just killing it in the polls. It's got 61% support from the last poll I saw. That was from a couple of weeks ago. It seems most definitely that it will pass and that is going to put New Jersey ahead of New York in establishing legal weed stores. I think a lot of people are paying attention to that. They see that as a source of revenue for the state budget because there will be a sales tax on the marijuana sold.

This is a measure to obviously it makes it legal for anyone 21 years or older and it will be regulated by a new commission and it seems highly likely at this point that it's going to win. One of its largest campaign spenders or funders is, I love this, ScottsMiracle-Gro, which if anyone ever grew pot in their basement, they might've used it. ScottsMiracle-Gro has a product for indoor cultivation, their businesses booming and they're poured a bunch of money into this campaign.

Brian: I guess then the New Jersey ballot measure would allow individual cultivation, which not every state that has legal weed allows.

Nancy: There are no rules yet set, so I'm not sure about that. You may be right. What's going to happen is, the vote will happen tomorrow and then the state legislature will set all the statutes that are the regulations, and then this new commission will enforce them. I'm not quite sure if any of those particular rules have happened yet.

Brian: That's a really interesting aspect of this, assuming based on the polls that this passes tomorrow, the reason it couldn't pass the New Jersey legislature is because, in large measure, people couldn't agree on the terms. Who would get the franchises? Would at-home cultivation be allowed? Questions like that. None of those will be resolved by yes vote, if it is a yes vote tomorrow. The legislature will have to find a way to agree. Am I right? If so, if they're deadlocked, is there a deadline for that?

Nancy: I don't think there's a deadline. Yes, it could get quite messy. All politics are transactional in New Jersey. I'm sure there'll be a lot of money behind this but I think that they're going to-- The governor very, very hardly supports this and I think they'll find a way. Speaking of the governor, let me just add, this is a big win for him, because this basically allows him to run for re-election next year and be able to say that his three top priorities that he promised, his big campaign promises, he accomplished all of them and that's going to help him.

Brian: I want to come back to one other ballot question with you in a minute, but Errol, I know you have to go in a second and I want to take one phone call for you on one other issue that our listeners are wonky enough that we have multiple people asking the same question. Jane in the Bronx, go for it, with Errol Louis we've got about 20 seconds for you.

Jane: Hey, Errol, and Brian, thanks a lot. Listen, judges? First of all, why do people vote for judges? I consider myself pretty well informed. I do not feel qualified to vote for a judge, but more importantly, in terms of democracy in my area, pick any four, there only are four, they're all Democrats. I know Andy Cohen's the thing because he was our city councilperson, completely prearranged, deal-making. What with judges? I hope you-

Brian: Thank you, forgive me for time. I'm going jump in because Errol has to go. I live probably in a district just south of Jane. I think for me it was, choose any six and there were six.

Errol: Yes, it's unfortunate. It's one of these cases where the party leaders get together, because if you look closely at the ballot, you'll notice that the same candidate will appear on three or four different ballot lines. Somehow, they're both a Democrat and a Republican and they are Conservative, so forth. It's not pretty, it's not great. The reason we have elected judges though, it's actually one of the more progressive measures from the 19th century that has survived to this point, which is that it's regular lawyers. It's not just people who are cronies of the governor, or whoever the other appointing authority might be.

It's actually a good thing in a way that there are candidacies. Now here's the thing. Brian, I don't know if you've ever tried this, but I've done some "debates with judges." They are forbidden from having regular kinds of debates. A judicial candidate can't really even get up and say, "Hey, vote for me because I'll do X, Y, and Z," because they're not supposed to do that.

It gets very little attention and that's why you get confronted with these mystery names on the ballot. It's unfortunate. I've tried to do my part. I've had some "forums", judicial forums, and I specifically avoid questions that will get them in trouble like, "Are you in favor of the death penalty?" But we have to do a better job. There's no question about that.

Brian: Errol Louis host of NY1's Inside City Hall and his podcast You Decide. He's also a Daily News columnist. Errol, thanks so much for some time on what I know is a very busy day for you too. Thank you. Thank you.

Errol: Thanks a lot, Brian.

Brian: This is WNYC FM HDN (AM) New York, WNJT FM 88.1 Trenton, WNJP 88.5 Sussex, WNJY 89.3 Netcong, and WNJO 90.3 Toms River. We own New York and New Jersey Public Radio. We're going to get back to the presidential race with Amy Walter in a few minutes, but Nancy Solomon, there's one more thing that I really have to cover with you and that is another ballot question in New Jersey that you've reported on that concerns the way legislative districts are drawn or redrawn. Again, this is one of those things that can sound wonky, but really there is so much at stake.

Nancy: Exactly. It's like death to the radio, trying to tell stories about it and explain to people redistricting, because it is so complicated. Basically, I think what's important to understand is that New Jersey and Virginia are the only two states that hold off-year state elections. Our gubernatorial and state legislature elections are in off years and that means in '01 and '21 and '31. We have elections where the new census, the every 10-year census has been done and the state is waiting for the census numbers to redraw the maps.

Of course, census numbers are critically important to redrawing legislative maps for a number of reasons, having to do with how many people are in these districts, but also the demographics of these districts, because it's good for democracy and good for civil rights to make sure that minority communities are not sliced and diced so that their vote is diluted and they're not able to vote as a community.

That's the background. Now New Jersey legislators have put on the ballot a measure that would delay redrawing the map for two years and it mentions the pandemic because of course, we are facing a delay this year because of the pandemic, but they say, "Because of the pandemic we have a delay, so from here going forward forever we'd want to delay the redrawing of the maps for two years." If we don't get the census numbers after February 15th, the census numbers are due in April of '01 or '21 or '31. New Jersey and Virginia do tend to get them early because the Census Bureau knows that there is a time crunch to get the districts drawn so that there can be primaries. We know candidates can jump into the race et cetera.

Now there's this proposal. If you vote yes on this ballot measure it would change the constitution and create this two-year delay that's triggered by late census results past February 15, which is pretty early for the Census Bureau. Opponents of it say that it's really a miscarriage of justice for communities to wait a full two years to have their districts redrawn so that their communities are better reflected.

There's been an enormous amount of change and influx into the state of, particularly, Asian and Latinx voters. Those communities would be disadvantaged by a yes vote. The counter to that from John McCain, an assemblyman who wrote the bill and put it on the ballot is, better to have two years of a bad map and eight years of a better map than 10 years of what he said would be a bad map. The folks on the other side say they don't believe that that's true. That necessarily they would draw a bad map out of it. It would be better than the one that's 10 years old. I hope that made a little bit of sense. It's rough, this one.

Brian: I think it did and as we try to inform voters on all the choices that they have on election day in our local area, I'm glad we got to that one too. Nancy Solomon, keep it up. Managing editor of New Jersey Public Radio and WNYC's New Jersey Bureau. Thanks a lot.

Nancy: Thanks, Brian.

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