Brian Lehrer: It's The Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC. Good morning again, everyone. Maybe you've been hearing on the station about the coup in Niger against their democratically-elected president, but the population and neighboring country seem to be divided about how to respond. Some European and nearby African nations are threatening military intervention to restore democracy. Others are saying, "Don't you dare." A headline in the Financial Times says, "Protesters surround French embassy chanting pro-Russian slogans."

We'll talk about the Niger crisis now, including how it's a new front, in a certain way, in the competition between the US and Russia for global influence. A headline on Politico says, "Biden administration unwilling to call Niger coup a 'coup.'" Our guest for this is Alexis Akwagyiram, managing editor at Semafor Africa. Before joining the relatively new news organization Semafor, Alexis reported for the Financial Times, the BBC for 10 years, and he was the Nigeria Bureau Chief for Reuters. Alexis, thanks for coming on with us. Welcome to WNYC.

Alexis Akwagyiram: Hello. Thanks for having me.

Brian Lehrer: To help ground our listeners, who may not know the basics, Niger is in the middle of West Africa. It's not on any coast. It's landlocked. It's north of Nigeria, south of Libya and Algeria. To start with a Reuters story from 2020, it says, "In a year marked by setbacks for West African democracy, Niger is poised to hold an election on Sunday that will lead to the country's first transition of power between two freely-elected presidents." That, from 2020. Can you start by saying a little bit about what kind of rule Niger had before, and how it became an electoral democracy just three years ago?

Alexis Akwagyiram: Absolutely. Well, before, Niger was primarily controlled by strong men. It was a kind of de facto military state. Then two years ago Mohamed Bazoum won an election and took over in the first democratic handover of power. Since then, he has become a real ally, a staunch ally, of the West in the Sahel. Basically, there's been a pivot whereby the way in which the country has been ruled has changed, and it's very much clinging to a sense of democracy.

Brian Lehrer: The Reuters article said that stood in contrast in 2020 to the neighboring nations of Ivory Coast and Guinea where term limits for presidents were being ended or extended. What was the regional context for Niger's democratization?

Alexis Akwagyiram: Ultimately, Niger was operating in, I guess, a situation whereby it was a nod to France. France has been a very, very influential player in the region because it's the former colonial power, and so it remained very, very, very strong. Then in contrast-- I mean, at that point when that Reuters story was written, Ivory Coast, in particular, was going through a pretty tough time, and it's actually come out of that time. I would argue that the rest of the region south of the Sahel has moved very much towards democratization.

I'm talking about countries like Ivory Coast. Ghana has long been stable. Benin and Togo have been relatively stable, and Nigeria has been stable, whereas the situation has actually changed in those countries in the Sahelian belt.

Brian Lehrer: That is so interesting and a necessary corrective, I think, to what we usually hear, which is true as far as it goes, that the trend globally is toward less democracy after decades when the trend was toward more democracy. You're here to tell us, in part, that trend away from democracy hasn't necessarily been true in a lot of Africa, but it doesn't get a lot of attention here. It was that elected president from 2020, Mohamed Bazoum, who was overthrown last week. Who staged this coup and why?

Alexis Akwagyiram: The coup was staged by the people who were defending him: the soldiers, the presidential guard. The presidential guard is an elite unit of soldiers, and they took him hostage. They took him out completely. They held him hostage on Wednesday, and then ultimately the head of the presidential guard, who is a longtime general, announced that he was now in charge. It was the soldiers. They're the ones who took over.

Brian Lehrer: It's like as if the Secret Service in this country were to take the president hostage and take power themselves?

Alexis Akwagyiram: Absolutely. That's a really good way of looking at it. They're the people who have elite training, they are very experienced, and they have access. There's a lot of trust involved in protecting the person who is number one, and ultimately, they betrayed the trust. A general called Abdourahmane Tchiani, he's the one that said ultimately, he's now in charge.

Brian Lehrer: Why? Just because we have the gun so we can be in charge, or are they representing some segment of the population in some way?

Alexis Akwagyiram: There were a number of different factors at play. One is personal. I've heard it said by a number of people that Tchiani, he might have been about to get the push. That's protecting self-interest. There are far more deep-seated reasons. Ultimately, on several indices, Niger is one of the poorest countries in the world, if not the poorest country in the world. About two in five people live on less than $2 a day. People have been frustrated for some time because in addition to the poor conditions in which many people live, there has been an Islamist insurgency raging on two fronts for the best part of a decade.

From the southeast of Niger, there have been Islamist militants who were allied to Islamic State and Boko Haram who've been fighting in the Lake Chad region. They have attacked thousands of people and forced thousands to flee their homes. Then to the southwest of Niger, there have been Islamist militants who traditionally have been allied to al-Qaeda, who have come over from Mali because Mali has been destabilized, and they have also been carrying out attacks, killed thousands of people, and forced thousands to leave their homes.

You have these factors whereby people are frustrated because it's a poor country, has a very high birth rate so the population is growing rapidly. Then in addition to that, they're dealing with these Islamist insurgencies. The sense was whatever was in place in terms of the security infrastructure was not working. The French have been present, other foreign troops have been present, and the US has a base there as well. Germany has been present. Then in neighboring Mali, the French have been there, and a massive UN peacekeeping force.

The frustration of the local people was that they felt not enough was being done, and that they were steadily getting poorer and poorer and poorer. I think since the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, that has affected the price of food. That's driven up food inflation because there's been a shortage of grain and shortage of fertilizer. People who were already frustrated and poor and getting killed and being forced to flee their homes were actually getting poorer over the course of the last year because the cost of everything, particularly food, has gone up.

Brian Lehrer: Listeners, help us report this story. Anyone from Niger listening right now in Niger, or anyone in the US or anywhere else originally from Niger? 212-433-WNYC. Any Nigerien expats in the audience? 212-433-9692. Tell us what you think is happening and why, and what you would like to happen next as a response to this coup. Or anyone else with a comment or a question, 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692. You can text as well as call.

Alexis, you mentioned the grain shortage as a result of the war in Ukraine. This gets into some of the complicated but really interesting international elements here. Here's a Financial Times headline about international responses. It says, "Regional heads threaten Niger coup leaders with military intervention." Those are some other countries in West Africa who are like, "No, no, no, no, no. You can't destabilize democracy around here. Not so fast."

On the other hand, the next line on the Financial Times site says, "Emergency summit comes as protesters surround French embassy in Niamey," the capital, "chanting pro-Russian slogans." Pro-Russian slogans. A BBC story this morning says, "Why some people want Russia in and France out." Can you explain that divide in the population, and where either France or Russia comes into it?

Alexis Akwagyiram: Absolutely. France was the former colonial power, and Niger gained independence-- I believe it was in 1960. The French really retained their influence. The currency in Niger and Francophone West African countries is still pegged to the value that's assigned by a central bank, which takes its nod from the French. People associate France with failure and frustration, and all the combustible factors that I mentioned before in terms of the cost of living and so on.

Now, in terms of Russia, Russia, particularly through the Wagner private army, has essentially shown that it can bring in fighters who will shoot on sight effectively. They will come and they will do a job. Now, those fighters are particularly appealing to leaders who are in a precarious situation because they're dealing with some form of insurgency. Central African Republic is a classic example of this. The president there really owes his position to Wagner fighters from Russia.

Then in Mali, which is a neighboring country to Niger, there's also been a coup. The military junta there, they also brought in Wagner fighters, and they're happier with what the Wagner fighters have done. Now, partly this is because, in terms of the French and definitely with the UN, the UN peacekeeping force is exactly that. It's a peacekeeping force, they're not an army, they're not there to attack terrorists.

They are there to facilitate the movement of food aid, for example, and to protect people, whereas these military forces, these military strongmen who've taken over in these countries are saying, "What we want is a form of force. A combative measure where you are on the front, but we get that from Wagner." As a result, many of these populations, people feel like the Russians will actually come in and do a more effective job than the French, who they believe they've left them to be shot at and to be mistreated by the Islamist insurgents.

As well as that, the Russians have over the last two or three years rolled out a very sophisticated propaganda campaign. They've waged a propaganda war, which frankly they're winning hands down against the French. Whereby what they've done is they've partnered with local broadcasters in a number of African countries. They'll partner with radio stations and they'll partner with TV stations to provide footage or provide content.

It might be from RT, which is Russia Today, which is a rolling TV station, and Sputnik, which is a kind of de facto-wise setup. A bit like AP but a Russian version. They will pump out the Russian perspective on things. Misinformation and often disinformation, and that is then shared through these local TV and radio networks. Then as well as that, they've also got bots and troll farms, and they also work with local influencers just to make sure that they're winning the digital message. They get their message out and they can win in terms of soft power.

Brian Lehrer: That's so interesting that the Wagner Group comes into this because so many of our listeners have probably only heard of the Wagner Group recently as the private Russian military led by Prigozhin, who staged that mutiny or whatever it was against Putin a few weeks ago, but not realizing that the Wagner Group has been playing a role around Africa too on behalf of Putin. Correct?

Alexis Akwagyiram: Yes, you're absolutely right. Correct. It is on behalf of Putin. The interesting thing was until the immediate aftermath of the failed mutiny, the Kremlin has always tried to hold Wagner at kind of arm's length, the reason being that then they have plausible deniability. They can say, "This is not the Russian army. These are mercenaries, and they have nothing to do with us." Yes, you're absolutely right. They're backed by Putin. There's a direct line to the Kremlin. That's the way they've operated.

Brian Lehrer: Before we get to some callers, the Politico headline that I mentioned in the intro, "Biden administration unwilling to call Niger coup a 'coup.'" Is there a sort of US versus Russia potential proxy situation here, and what kind of competing US interests that Biden has to balance would lead him to not call this coup by its name?

Alexis Akwagyiram: I think that's a very cunning move by President Biden. I think it goes back to what you were saying before, and I didn't touch on properly, about ECOWAS, the regional block, and them calling for force. The difficult situation is a lot of these narratives, particularly the ones spun by Russia, are that it's about colonial forces - specifically the French, but this could apply to the US in the English-speaking world - who are coming to take natural resources and are not defending people, and they're just trying to bleed the local population dry.

In order to not inflame the situation further, I imagine what the White House administration is trying to do is to just say, "Look, we don't need to use the word 'coup.' We don't need to question your legitimacy." Maybe even, through back channels, it may be that the Biden administration is thinking, "Let's let the regional block take a stand on this and lead." Because the last thing that the Biden administration will want is to inflame a situation and maybe imperil the US troops already in the country, and any US citizens or Western citizens who are currently in Niger.

Brian Lehrer: Yes. How sad, from a US perspective, that Russia may be more trusted by the local population than what we see as the much cleaner and more democratic West. Maybe the US interventions in recent decades in places like Iraq and Haiti have given that kind of thing a tarnished reputation.

Alexis Akwagyiram: I think that's right. Yes, I think there is a real danger of that. The sense that in poor parts of the world, maybe the Global South, there's a perception of a new wave of imperialism which is led by the US. The thought that if you have US soldiers or US interests, it's usually around mineral wealth. It might be about oil, for example. That's part of the concern.

Brian Lehrer: One other thing about what the Biden administration might be asking itself, is it possible that Biden would want to continue military aid to Niger even if the coup takes hold and democracy is overthrown in Niger because the US priority is to be battling the Islamist radicals in the region, who you were referring to earlier, because ultimately, they might become a terrorism threat against us.

Alexis Akwagyiram: That is the concern. I think globally there is the concern that now the Sahel can become a hotbed for Islamist insurgents who then wage attacks outside of the region. The difficulty, and this is a real challenge, is that the Biden administration, if it continued military aid, they do not know if some of that aid, be it weapons or financing, could end up in the pockets of Wagner, and therefore the Kremlin.

That is a distinct possibility because obviously, these Russian mercenaries do not operate for free. What they do is they've got a playbook. They'll take on a contract and they will come and they will fight, but in exchange, they get access to natural resources. In Sudan, that has been gold. There has been gold in Mali as well. They've done the same in the Central African Republic. I imagine in Niger it will be uranium because Niger has the seventh biggest uranium deposits in the world.

Brian Lehrer: We're talking about the coup in Niger and the implications for the people there, and the global implications, with journalist Alexis Akwagyiram, managing editor at the news organization Semafor, managing editor for Africa. Let's take a phone call from a listener originally from West Africa. Ami in Fairfield, Connecticut, you're on WNYC. Thank you so much for calling in. Hi there.

Ami: Good morning, Brian. Long-time listener, second-time caller.

Brian Lehrer: Ha. Glad you are on.

Ami: Yes. Thank you. I am originally from Gambia. I've lived here for almost 30 years-- well, getting about there. I went to college here. I try to go back home at least once a year, at least prior to COVID. I have a family here. I take my daughter to Gambia - I'm originally from Gambia - where she goes to school during the winter so she can learn the culture. I've pretty much been connected with my roots all the while.

I think the governments that we have in place now are ineffective, to tell you the truth, throughout Africa, including Southern Africa. The issue, however, with the military taking over power against the will of the people, these are democratic countries. We have to respect the vote and the voices of the people. We have to respect the will of the people. Now, the issue, I think, one or some of these countries have, including my own, is that the will of the country does not seem to reflect what most people think is best for the future.

For instance, when you have people who are really, really poor, they have no resources, they're extremely dependent on the government, or try to be dependent on the government, the government comes and lies to them and gives them hope that they never intend to fulfill. You have these people. All of a sudden, eventually it gets to a point where it becomes a patronage system. The people keep voting for the same people that are in power. Then you have other people who are sitting outside saying, "What can we do about it?"

The solution is not the military. The solution is not Wagner. The solution is not Russia. The solution is us Africans. The education system is extremely poor. Even the military guys that are coming, very few of my African friends spend any time reading or listening to podcasts or things like that to develop their minds. You don't just have to learn from school. I have a graduate degree, but a lot of what I've learned, I've learned on my own.

We have to shift the mindset, but shifting the mindset is not a matter of blaming the West. Yes, there was colonialism. Yes, there was slavery and all of those things, and we cannot discount the impact. We cannot discount the trauma that it's caused and all of those things. However, our problem is not the West. All of the West African countries that are English-speaking, that were colonized by the Brits, after the British left, the years that followed were quite prosperous and stable because they left infrastructure. They left processes in place that carried the country through. I apologize for my dog. She's a Chihuahua-

Brian Lehrer: [chuckles] That's okay.

Ami: -and very loud. Gradually, including in my own country, the governments that remained-- we had a president for 30 years, and it frustrates me quite a bit to hear a lot of the people in my country talk about the fact that he was a democratic president. He has a lot of accolades, a lot of titles, and things like that, but he wasn't. The military guy that followed wasn't. The coup of 1981 was a tremendous tragedy for the entire country.

Recently - I'll give you a quick example - the parliamentarians in my country, the government purchased vehicles valued at $60,000 for 52 parliamentarians. These guys represent districts. In general, many of those districts-- because I come from the upcountry part of the country. Many of those districts, the net worth of the entire district is probably not $60,000, and people are earning $2 a day and have no education system. The kids are not going to school, they're not being fed. You go from Western colonialism to now-- Then the other factor is that we have China taking over in my country and in most of West Africa actually.

Brian Lehrer: That's right. That's another, in addition to Russia, country that the US sees as an enemy in terms of global influence, exerting a lot of influence in Africa at the same time. Ami, I'm going to leave it there. I thank you for all of that context and all those layers of observation and experience and meaning. I want to go onto another caller and then, Alexis, I'll get your reaction to both of them. Here's Vincent in Essex County, originally from Ivory Coast. Hi, Vincent. You're on WNYC.

Vincent: Hi. I just want to say that, unlike UK, it's never really left the French-speaking countries. If I take Ivory Coast for example, all the banks are French, water distribution is French, power distribution is French, and there is a big French base by the airport in Abidjan. That is one thing.

Then they are present in the economy. Even the currency that is being used in all these French-speaking countries are made in France. They're called the franc CFA. They are involved in all the economic decisions. It is more in neocolonialism than independence. To maintain that kind of relationship, France makes sure that they are involved in selecting the next president. We cannot really talk about democracy because that is a way for them to pick who they want to put in power. The best president is not the one who works for his people. It's one who works for the Western countries. Then I'll just--

Brian Lehrer: Having said that, do you feel that the democratically elected president, Bazoum, who was just overthrown in the coup, was more of a representative of French interests or the coup leaders?

Vincent: All the presidents that are not for the French interest, they are thrown out one way or the other. It is a French interest to have someone who is pro-France, for example. Let me put it that way. They work hard to maintain that relationship.

Brian Lehrer: Are the coup leaders from France as far as you can tell?

Vincent: No. That's what is going on there. All the coup leaders in Burkina Faso, Mali, that's why they all united. Because they all are anti-France.

Brian Lehrer: Vincent, I'm going to leave it there for time. Thank you very much. Alexis, two very different and very interesting callers. Vincent putting it in post-colonial terms and why there's some fervor for a coup like this because France, unlike the UK, he said, never really decolonized after they officially pulled out decades ago. Ami is talking about more systemic local failures like the educational system and things like that. What were you thinking as you listened to the calls?

Alexis Akwagyiram: I was thinking that both of them made valid points, and I think there was a lot of truth in what both of them said. I think with Vincent, really I think Vincent hit the nail on the head in terms of why this is happening. If you look at where there've been coups, these are former French colonies but the French, they never left. I made a similar point near the start. They had an entirely different colonial model, which was called Françafrique. It was an intellectual view of the world, whereby they would impose just the French state of being. Wanting the French spirit in all their colonies.

They wanted to effectively control people, and they never let go. As a result, if you never let go and you still control big businesses, and you control the currency, and you install politicians, when things do not go well people hold you accountable. That is what is happening. People looking to France and the democratically elected presidents who have basically been supported by France, and they just said, "This isn't working for us because we are impoverished and we're being killed by these Islamist insurgents, and France, you're not coming to our aid. You're not coming to our assistance. You're not coming to help us."

There was also a mention of China and Russia. Crucially neither the Chinese nor the Russians are imposing an intellectual view of the world in the same way as the French did. this Françafrique thing. They're not trying to force Mandarin or Russian on people. They're not trying to control how they view the world. They're just saying, "Well, we'll build infrastructure." That's what the Chinese are saying. "We'll lend you money to do that on favorable terms." Or, as the Russians are saying, "We will come and kill the insurgents on your behalf in exchange for some access to your natural resources."

Now, in terms of what the previous caller said, what I agreed with in particular was the point about education and health. I think that's something that is really lost in many of the conversations that we have around this because we look at it from very much a Western standpoint, and understandably. Like, how does this affect security? Will the Sahel become a hotbed for the next wave of attacks on the Global North?

It's also worth bearing in mind that this happens because people, as I said, are very poor, and there are low levels of literacy and there are poor health services. The real tragedy here is that we're not really even going to see the effects of this unfold for another 20 years or so because Niger has one of the fastest-growing populations in the world. On UN projections, it looks like it's going to pretty much triple in population size from around 24 million now to around just under 70 million in 2050.

Really, there's no forward thinking because the difficulty when you have military rulers who are there to basically just try and stop the insurgencies and keep people happy, is they're not thinking in terms of long-term solutions. They're not thinking about infrastructure development. They're not thinking about building schools, training teachers, and they're not thinking about building hospitals or in terms of budgetary allowance. What percentage of our budget will go towards maternal health care, for example, or literacy?

There's a real time bomb in that part of the world because these military rulers, I understand why they're there. I think your two listeners summed up why they are there, particularly Vincent, I thought, but there's a real time bomb.

Brian Lehrer: So interesting. I'm going to sneak one more caller in here. We're just about out of time, but Ahmed in the Bronx is going to mention yet another dynamic. Ahmed, you're on WNYC, but we have 30 seconds for you. Hi, Ahmed.

Ahmed: Okay. Hi, Brian. Very interesting. You remember the people of Azawad back in Mali immediately after the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi?

Brian Lehrer: You mean when the US was involved in trying to overthrow Gaddafi?

Ahmed: When Gaddafi was overthrown and assassinated.

Brian Lehrer: In Libya.

Ahmed: That's right.

Brian Lehrer: Yes. And?

Ahmed: Those people, we call them the Tuaregs back in Mali.

Brian Lehrer: I think Ahmed's line is shaky. Alexis, I think he was going to talk about-- I think he told our screener about a lot of weapons being dropped in the effort to overthrow Muammar Gaddafi in Libya, which was a US priority for a short amount of time back, I guess, when Obama was president. That that gave a lot of weapons inadvertently to people we now consider bad actors, coup leaders, and the like. 30 seconds for you. Do you think that happened?

Alexis Akwagyiram: Yes, I do. Absolutely. I think in terms of Islamist insurgents, those bad actors gained weapons from the fallout from Gaddafi. Equally, some of these will fall into the hands of coup leaders. Yes, the Sahel is awash with weapons, and that is partly a byproduct of what happened with the fall of Gaddafi. That's why we're seeing these coups now, and this level of violence.

Brian Lehrer: Alexis Akwagyiram, managing editor of the news organization Semafor Africa. I think a lot of listeners in the New York area and around the country now understand these headlines from Niger a lot better than they did a little while ago. Thank you so much for explaining so much.

Alexis Akwagyiram: Thank you.

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