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Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer on WNYC. Here's a headline from a recent Politico article that caught our eye, The Religious Landscape is Undergoing Massive Change. It Could Decide the 2024 Election. The article is by Eastern Illinois University political science professor Ryan Burge, who's an expert on religion and politics. He is research director for a group called Faith Counts and author of the book The Nones, which is not about N-U-N-S nuns, it's about N-O-N-E-S nones, as in none of the above, for what religion you belong to. The full title of that book is The Nones: Where They Came From, Who They Are, and Where They Are Going. Let's talk about all this in relation to 2024 with Ryan Burge. Professor Burge, thanks for joining. Welcome to WNYC.

Ryan Burge: Thanks so much for having me.

Brian Lehrer: You're right that one of the most significant shifts in American politics and religion just took place over the past decade and it barely got any notice. What is it?

Ryan Burge: Yes, the share of Americans who associate with religion dropped by 11 points between 2010 and 2020, and that's just a continuation of a long-term trend of Americans leaving religion behind. In 1972, 5% of Americans said they had no religious affiliation on surveys, and now it's 30% of Americans say they have no religious affiliation, and amongst Generation Z, which are people born in 1996 or later, it's above 45% of Americans have no religious affiliation.

Brian Lehrer: This deepens what you call the God gap in American politics. What do you mean by the God gap?

Ryan Burge: Yes, so increasingly what's happened is that the parties have sorted over almost everything; geography, race, but also religion. The Republican Party today is 75% white Christians, Catholic and Protestants. The Democratic Party is only 38% white Christians. Democratic Party has become this coalition of a lot of non-religious people. For instance, in 2020, 45% of the voters for Joe Biden were non-religious people. 45% of all his voters were non-religious. It'll be above 50% probably in the next election.

The Democrats are this weird amalgam of a lot of non-religious people, but also some old-school white Catholics, some Hispanic Catholics, some Hispanic Evangelicals, some Muslims, some Buddhists. They have to keep this tent together of all these different religious people, while the Republican Party is basically just the party of white Christianity now and they're only one note. The problem for the Republicans, though, is the share of Americans who are white and Christian is dropping precipitously over time, so their base is crumbling from the foundations.

Brian Lehrer: One of the points of your article is that people are not fleeing religion at equal rates in the 50 states.

Ryan Burge: Yes. When I say non-religion has gone from 5% to 30%, you just think, well, that's a wholesale emptying of churches and synagogues and mosques all over across America, but there are certain areas in America where religion has actually grown over the last ten years. My favorite example is Starr County, Texas, which is this county that got a lot of press in 2020 because it was a 50-plus Democratic county in 2016, and now it's only a 10-plus Democratic county. 33% of people in Starr County were attached to a religious congregation in 2010. In 2020, that jumped to 75%, so Starr County got a lot more religious over the last ten years and became a lot less Democratic over the last ten years.

Brian Lehrer: Is that just white Christians or is that also Latinos who you also write about?

Ryan Burge: I think we underestimate-- we always assume that Hispanic voters tend to favor the Democrats, and they do in the overall sample, but if you look at how devout Hispanic Catholics and Protestants vote, they are moving redder and redder in every subsequent election, and I think a lot of this goes back to the culture war issues with issues of transgender and abortion and things like that.

A lot of Hispanics who go to Mass every week, let's say, or go to an Evangelical Protestant church every week, are turned off by a lot of what the Democrats are doing on social issues, and they're finding the Republican parties actually welcoming them in by appealing to white Christians. They're also adjacently appealing to these conservative Hispanic Protestants and Catholics.

Brian Lehrer: Still about 2:1 Democrat to Republican that Latinos vote in recent elections, right?

Ryan Burge: Yes, that's about the overall average, but like I said, if you break it down by religion, the other thing we have to think about too is assimilation, because when you see Hispanics coming to America as immigrants, the first generation typically keeps the religion where they came from, which is typically Catholic, but not always, but the second and third generation looks more and more like America looks like. They're becoming less and less religious with every successive generation, so there's this age-immigration generation component that's also involved in the Hispanic vote that we have to keep in mind.

Brian Lehrer: Listeners, you can help us report this story, maybe in generational terms. Are you any more or less religious than your parents? Immigrant families, if you come from an immigrant family, maybe you tell your story in the context of the way our guest, political science professor, Ryan Burge, was just telling us if it applies to you, and does any of this track with your politics becoming more to the right or more to the left generationally and your religious practices becoming more or less pronounced? 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692.

Help us tell this story for yourself, or help us tell the story by describing anyone you know in a swing state or a swing county. We'll get into some interesting ones of those as we go here. 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692. Or ask political science professor and religion and politics expert Ryan Burge a question about all this, again, 212-433-WNYC. You can also text to that number. This is WNYC FM HD and AM New York, WNJT-FM 88.1 Trenton, WNJP 88.5 Sussex, WNJY 89.3 Netcong, and WNJO 90.3 Toms River.

We are New York and New Jersey Public Radio and live streaming at wnyc.org at two minutes before eleven o'clock. Let's look at some interesting specific examples that you write about, Professor Burge, for example, Bucks County, Pennsylvania, outside Philadelphia. What do you see happening there?

Ryan Burge: Bucks County is, in my mind, emblematic of one of those classic suburban swing counties that are really important come election day, especially in a state like Pennsylvania, which is obviously a very much of a swing state or purple state. Bucks County is like a more affluent suburb of Philadelphia. It was marginally blue for Obama in 2012. He won it by less than half a percentage point, so it came right down to the wire. Biden won that county by 5% in 2020. If you look at the religiosity of Bucks County, though, the share of people in Bucks County who are attached to a religious congregation dropped 18% between 2010 and 2020.

What I think is happening is in a lot of these suburban counties, if you see religiosity dropping, I think that's a huge advantage for the Democrats. That creates a blue wall for them where they can run up the vote in a place like Bucks, so if they lose the central part of the state, which tends to be more red and more religious, they can more than make up for it by all the votes that happen in a place like Bucks County.

Brian Lehrer: Is politics changing because religion is changing, or religion is changing because politics is changing? If you can even answer that question.

Ryan Burge: Well, I'll put it like this. We used to assume in religion and politics literature that religion was the first lens in which you looked at the world, all aspects of the world, including politics, so when you thought about who you're going to vote for on election day, you thought about what the Bible or the Quran or the Torah teaches you about different issues, and that's how you voted. Your religion dictated your politics.

Over the last ten years or so, we've gotten a lot better data and we've theorized about this in a lot more precise way, and what we're seeing more and more now is we think that politics is now the first lens and everything is downstream of that. Now people are picking their house of worship based on their political persuasion. If I'm a conservative, I'm not going to go to an Episcopalian church where they're talking about gay people and abortion as a right and all these things. I'm going to find a church that reaffirms my political beliefs. We actually saw this even back in the 1990s.

There was a famous study in South Bend, Indiana. They found that Catholics who are pro-choice would find pro-choice parishes around South Bend to go to. They would flee the pro-life parishes because they just didn't want to hear those messages in the homily and the pulpit. What we're seeing is people are sorting themselves out in every possible way, including-- politics is the master sorting mechanism, and we're picking everything in our lives, including where we live, where we work, how many kids we have, if we get married, and where we worship based on who we vote for on election day.

Brian Lehrer: Yes, but so if the lens that you're looking at this through is more religious people tend to vote Republican, less religious people tend to vote Democrat, what about progressive Democratic Party leaning religious institutions? You're teaching in Illinois, maybe you see it there, but here in New York, we have plenty of progressive religious institutions, congregations. We could also cite the Black church in most parts of the country Democratic leaning on many important issues. Is progressive religion as opposed to no religious affiliation really such a small factor in all this?

Ryan Burge: The mainline, that's what we call these churches that used to make up the liberal or even moderate wing of American Protestant Christianity like United Methodist Church, the Episcopalians, United Church of Christ. I'm an American Baptist pastor, we're part of the mainline as well. If you look at the membership statistics in those denominations, many of them have lost 30%, 40%, or 50% of their members over the last 40 years.

In the 1950s, 50% of Americans were attached to a mainline congregation in one way or another. In the 1970s, it was 30%. Today, it's 10% of Americans are aligned with a mainline congregation. The Episcopal Church, which is probably one of the most prominent mainline members, on an average Sunday in America, 250,000 Episcopalians come to worship. In comparison, there are 13 million Southern Baptists, and about 6 million of them worship every Sunday.

When you compare the liberal traditions versus the conservative traditions, they still exist and they are actually really prominent in places like New England, but if you go to the middle part of the country, for instance, in my county, in 10 years, there might only be one mainline church left in a county of 40,000 people. It's definitely a geographic story about, in the coast and the more liberal areas of America, there's liberal Protestant religion. Across the middle part of the country, it's basically Evangelicals, Catholics, or no religion at all.

Brian Lehrer: Ryan Burge with us. Religion and politics expert at Eastern Illinois University. His article on Politico was called The Religious Landscape is Undergoing Massive Change. It could Decide the 2024 election. Christine in Lake Hopatcong, you're on WNYC. Hi, Christine. Thanks for calling in.

Christine: Hi. Thank you for having me. I find this very interesting. I am a child of immigrants. My parents are from South America, and they immigrated here in the mid-1970s. We grew up every single Sunday going to church. We went to a Catholic school but what I have found is that between my sister and I, we've actually gotten less religious as the years have progressed. While my parents both have completely different politics, my father has become increasingly conservative in his older age, which was quite shocking for us based on the way that we were raised and our conversations at our dinner table.

In contrast, my sister and I both have been heavily involved in diversity and inclusion work. Our experiences growing up in suburban New Jersey as the only children of immigrants, as the only young women of color, have really led us to take more of that liberal approach and almost take that step back away from organized religion and that more conservative approach whereas my father, once again-

Brian Lehrer: Go ahead. Finish the thought.

Christine: -has really doubled down and almost gotten more conservative and his viewpoints have really evolved very differently than we were raised at our kitchen table.

Brian Lehrer: You just referred to an example of you and your sister becoming more progressive is being involved in diversity and inclusion work. Would you say that that's what your father is reacting against as he becomes more conservative, the kinds of social issues that our guest was bringing up before such as more recognition of trans people and things like that, or is it also economic? Does he look at the debt ceiling negotiations that just took place and say, "Bygone those Republicans who really have it right about the debt"? Or is it really social issues and identity?

Christine: I think it's a mixture of both. We've always referred to my father as a fiscal conservative, but I think to go around and talk and debate about economics, you're not going to find a lot of people on that same playing field as you that are able to discuss that. My father retired as CFO of a company. He was an accountant. He's incredibly intelligent, but in everyday conversations, that narrative is really hard to spell out in just your average conversation at the local Elks Club.

I think that what emboldens people and impassions people are the issues regarding trans and the LGBT community, and that's where you can really get a fire on people and anybody can have that conversation with or without education and they can just shoot off whatever they feel.

Brian Lehrer: Christine, thank you so much for telling your story. It's really illuminating and I hope you call us again. Tony in Manhattan, you're on WNYC. I think we may hear a little equal and opposite here. Hi, Tony.

Tony: Hi there. Like I mentioned, I'm a first-generation immigrant. My parents came here from Eastern Europe. I was actually raised in an atheist household but growing into young adulthood, I actually found myself becoming more and more religious and attached to the Eastern Orthodox church, which is traditionally where my family would've been engaged with if it wasn't for the communist history of Eastern Europe.

At the same time, I found myself moving further to the right, the way that I see it is a rejection of what seems to be a very contemporary viewpoint that just basically honors identity expression above all other civilizational pillars that have come thousands of years before. I find a lot of richness in the Orthodox church's tradition especially because it does value those ancient Greek and ancient traditions that also came out of Jerusalem.

I have to say, I find it difficult to connect with that though as much as I would like in a place like Manhattan where even Orthodox churches have a surprisingly, from my point of view, a progressive lean to them, like politics has even made its way into Eastern Orthodox churches, which is unheard of elsewhere, in my experience.

Brian Lehrer: Tony, I'm curious why you find the current focus on identity politics as you see it as not fitting in with traditional values because probably people in the progressive churches in Manhattan where you are and elsewhere would say, "Jesus was about loving the poor and doing for the poor and policies that help the poor and about inclusion, not rejecting people who are different and outcasts."

Tony: Right, yes. From my perspective, that type of inclusion is an inclusion wherein people who are different can be different in pathological and non-pathological ways, so to speak. To put a contemporary frame to it, Jesus indeed accepted all but he accepted all repentant sinners. That is how the framing is. In other words, there are better and more beneficial ways of being and there are ways that are less so, and those aren't dependent on whatever your personal expression at the moment might feel like it might be.

That to me is a contemporary bias that at least from what I understand from the Orthodox tradition that is reined in by an overarching ethical structure that is obviously other-worldly in the Christian context but also goes beyond your personal preferences in 2023.

Brian Lehrer: I guess you're saying, I think a lot of listeners would hear you as saying that being various of LGBTQ is pathological from your perspective.

Tony: Not necessarily. There would be-- and those are different too. There's LGB and then there's T and Q, and the fact that they're even lumped in together is a mystery to me but setting that aside no, not necessarily. It's more so there's an overarching point where that would dictate that we should have a stronger control over our passions compared to what our current way of life applies. That applies to sexual wishes, but that also applies to wishes around food, around money. Just all worldly desires would fall into that category.

Brian Lehrer: Tony, thank you for your call. I really appreciate it. Well, Ryan Burge, religion and politics expert. Burge, I'm sorry, what were you thinking listening to those two calls? Like I was indicating to the second caller, I'm sure a lot of LGBTQ+ listeners and people who support them will take offense from some of that, but how does it exemplify the religious and political convergence and divide? I'm not sure which word to use that you describe in your article.

Ryan Burge: I think that the second call especially really was striking because he came from an Eastern European country that's atheist because of communism and then he accepts Orthodoxy. Eastern Orthodoxy in America has become incredibly conservative over the last 20 or 30 years and I think there's this interesting trend happening in American religion where the move for a while was to make religion easy. One hour a week, you could wear whatever you wanted, Friday night, Saturday night, you could come whenever you want.

The churches that tend to be growing the fastest now in America are actually the hardest churches to attend. The Orthodox church has a three-hour Easter service. It's not easy to be an Orthodox Christian. The kind of Catholicism that's growing right now are traditional Catholics, those who reject Vatican II and want to go back to the Latin Mass. They want religion to be hard and they think the problem is it's become too easy. I think a lot of conservatives, cultural conservatives, political conservatives, are being drawn to religion because they like the old way of doing things.

They feel like we've modernized everything and that's taken all the power and the mystery out of religion and that's really why religion has declined over the last 20 or 30 years. Southern Baptist Convention has lost 1.3 million people in the last three years, down 3 million since 2006, and a lot of people in that convention are saying that our problem is we've become too woke, we're too liberal, we've got to become more conservative. I think there's this fight going on in religion right now. When you start losing numbers, is it because you become too liberal or because you become too conservative? There's good arguments on both sides.

Brian Lehrer: Let's take one more call from a Catholic priest. John in Clifton, you're on WNYC. Hi, John.

Priest John: Good morning, Brian. Brian, I'm a priest, a Catholic priest, and I'm just listening to everything that's being said, and it sounds realistic. It sounds like that's what my experience is. What I wanted to say is when I was baptized, the priest jokingly said, "Oh, another Catholic, another Democrat." I think many of us who were Democrats, we might not be Republican, but we're not into the Democrats the way it's going. I think it's not necessarily conservative or liberal, it's a mix of things.

Brian Lehrer: Is it, as you see it, if Catholics are going in that direction, I'll ask our guest if that's even statistically true, but is it also mostly about sexual and gender identity because the Catholic church would also be traditionally in favor of helping the migrants and helping the poor?

Priest John: Oh, yes. You see, that's where it gets very difficult. We've done a great job even in New York City on helping immigrants. We've always done that, and I think we'll continue, but when you get into, not even sexual morals, but those guys that are dressed like nuns that are going to be at Dodger Stadium, am I for that? No, but do I support gay rights? Yes. It's very confusing to label yourself anything.

Brian Lehrer: What's the guys who are going to dress like nuns at Dodger Stadium? I don't know that.

Priest John: The Drag Queens of Perpetual Indulgence or something.

Brian Lehrer: I see.

Priest John: They were invited. Brian, you got to get with it on some of this [crosstalk].

Brian Lehrer: I know. I'm going to have to follow baseball more closely. [laughs] John, thank you very much for that call. I appreciate it. We're just about out of time, Professor Burge, but how about the Catholics? We talked about Evangelicals and mainline Protestants moving in different directions. What about Catholics?

Ryan Burge: In the 1970s, two-thirds of white Catholics were Democrats, obviously coming off the Kennedy election, very strong union vote, that type of thing. Today, about 55% of white Catholics are now Republicans. Joe Biden actually did worse with white Catholics in 2020 compared to Hillary Clinton in 2016 and he is a white Catholic, so I don't think the Catholic movement, especially older white Catholics are moving to the right.

Interesting fact about Catholics, in the 1970s, 55% of Catholics went to Mass every Sunday. Today, it's less than 25% go every Sunday. We're also seeing a divide there politically. The ones who are going more often are more Republican. The ones who are going less are more Democrat.

Brian Lehrer: That group that the caller mentioned who are going to the Dodgers game, the Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence, are you familiar with them? Are they-- what would you call it? I guess they're a drag group. They're doing political theater.

Ryan Burge: They are, they do, but they do a lot of work on HIV research in raising awareness of HIV. They've been around for 40 years now. Did a tremendous service to the gay community in Los Angeles, helping them educate them about HIV&AIDS, but they do some things that are pretty offensive to the average Catholic. They lambast the Catholic church on certain issues, and I can see why a lot of Catholics would be of two minds. If you're more liberal-minded on things like same-sex marriage, you like what they're up to, but then when they're making fun of your church, I think a lot of Catholics have a hard time dealing with that.

Brian Lehrer: The article is called The Religious Landscape is Undergoing Massive Change. It could decide the 2024 election. I think your bottom line, Professor Burge, is it's going to benefit Democrats probably because more people are turning away from religion than turning to it.

Ryan Burge: I think what you're also losing though, you're losing a lot of white Christians, though. For everyone you gain, you tend to lose in the American political economy for

whatever reason. We're seeing these Catholics who used to be strong Democrats are now strong Republicans. Even Evangelicals used to be divided in the '80s, and now they're 75% Republicans. Even the mainliners who are left, they tend to lean to the right as well. The average United Methodist is a Republican, not a Democrat. For everyone they've gained in the nones category, they've lost some in the white Christian category, and that balances things out in the national scale.

Brian Lehrer: Ryan Burge teaches political science at Eastern Illinois University. The article is in Politico. Thanks for joining us. Really interesting.

Ryan Burge: Thanks so much, Brian.

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