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Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer on WNYC. Now we will launch our latest Brian Lehrer Show quiz series when you can test your knowledge, win prizes, and learn stuff all at the same time. Last fall, some of you remember we did a series of geo quizzes to see how well you know where things are. Just before New Year's, we did our annual end-of-year dues quiz. Today we'll launch a life-by-the-numbers quiz series. Topic one today, population by the numbers. We'll start locally and build out from there. If you want to try your hand at a population by the numbers quiz give us a call at 212-433-WNYC. Obviously, that's our on-air line, not our donation line. We will never ask you for money on the air.

Call in if you want to play and try to win something. 212-433-WNYC. 212-433-9692. If you get three in a row right, we'll give you a choice of prizes today. A Brian Lehrer Show New York City skyline mug or a peace, love, and Brian Lehrer tie-dye T-shirt. That's for three right answers in a row. Call in if you want to take a shot. We did already tell you what the first two questions are so that's a little head start. 212-433-WNYC. 212-433-9692. Who wants to play? I've been doing our spoiler alert promo for what the first question would be. It is within a million people, what's the population of New York City according to the 2020 census? There's the first question. We've got about 20 questions ready to go. 212-433-WNYC.

Let's see how many winners we can pack into these 20 questions. 212-433-9692. Joining us to help out is William Frey the well-known demographer senior fellow with the think tank Brookings Metro and author of the book Diversity Explosion: How New Racial Demographics Are Remaking America. Bill, thanks for lending your population expertise. Welcome back to WNYC.

William Frey: Oh, it's good to be with you again, Brian.

Brian Lehrer: As people are getting in line on the phones, I'll say that many of these questions will be based on the 2020 census. Without giving away any of the quiz answers, were there one or two things that you thought were most surprising or interesting about this decade census results?

William Frey: I think I can say broadly without giving too many hints it's a huge diversity in the United States that continues to hit us in all parts of the country, not just in big cities like New York and Los Angeles. That's really the thing that hits me in the face all the time, especially among our younger population. I don't think this is an answer to one of the questions, but less than half of the under age 18 population in the US are white. All the rest of them are people of color. That tells us where our future is going in this country.

Brian Lehrer: All right. We'll get some more of your impressions of demography today as we go through these questions and answers and use them to launch a little bit of conversation between us. Let's talk to our first contestant. Eric in Harlem, you're on WNYC. Hi Eric. Ready to play?

Eric: Yes.

Brian Lehrer: Okay. We did state the first question earlier, I'll say it again, according to the 2020 census, how many people live in New York City? If you guess it within a million, we consider it a right answer.

Eric: I feel like I'm cheating but according to newyorkcity.gov, it's eight million eight hundred thousand something.

Brian Lehrer: [chuckles] You looked it up, so right on the nose, eight million eight hundred thousand. Question number two, according to the 2020 census, how many people live in New Jersey? If you were listening very closely during the pledge break, Nancy Solomon gave this one away. Do you know?

Eric: I see 9,288,000.

Brian Lehrer: That is also right. 8.8 million as well, same as New York City to the nearest-- that decimal point. Bill, do you want to hit him up for the potential for three in a row and a prize?

William Frey: Sure. Well, in the United States within 10 million people, what is the population of the United States?

Eric: Oh, 330 million I think.

Brian Lehrer: That is right. Eric, thank you. Now you're going to get a choice, okay? You're the first person to hear this choice, although I did say it before come to think of it in promoting this segment, but you can have a peace, love, and Brian Lehrer tie-dye T-shirt or a Brian Lehrer Show New York City skyline mug. Do you want the mug or do you want the t-shirt?

Eric: I already have the mug. I will take that T-shirt.

Brian Lehrer: All right, hang on and we will take your size request and your address off the air. Let's talk about that set a little bit, Bill. I'll bet a lot of people even right in our Metro area would be surprised to learn that New York City and the State of New Jersey have basically exactly the same number of people.

William Frey: Yes. Of course, New York is by far the biggest city in the United States, [chuckles] and so I don't think people should be so surprised about that. A lot of New Jersey are the suburbs of New York, some of the suburbs of Philadelphia, but as a whole [crosstalk]--

Brian Lehrer: And some cities.

William Frey: And some cities of course in between. I think it's an interesting fact but I don't think it should be that surprising.

Brian Lehrer: John on Staten Island, ready to play?

John: I'm ready as I'll ever be.

Brian Lehrer: Okay, wait. Actually, hang on, John. We're going to take you next. Be patient with me. We're going to take you next. I'm going to go to James in Los Angeles since he's calling in from LA. Give him a shot here before we go back to our local callers. James, you there, ready to play?

James: Good morning. Yes, you'll be happy to know that I won't be referring to Google to give you my incorrect answers.

Brian Lehrer: [laughs] Well, he had time to refer to Google because we gave him that first question in advance. Bill, you want to hit James up with the question and James will see why I'm being friendly to him to push him to the top of the list for this next question set?

William Frey: That's a little bit of a hint. New York is the biggest city in the US by population, which city is second?

James: That would have to be Los Angeles.

Brian Lehrer: Yes. That would have to be Los Angeles. Bill, keep going.

William Frey: Yes. Within a million, how many people live in Los Angeles?

James: Within 1 million, let's say 5,200,000.

Brian Lehrer: 5,200,000. Oh, that means you don't win because you are more than a million out from the answer. James, thanks for giving it a shot. Bill, I think this is an interesting contrast. This is one of the reasons that we put together these two questions back to back, the population of New York City being almost 9 million, Los Angeles being the second biggest country in the nation but only a population of 3.9 million people. What I say, second biggest city in the nation obviously.

William Frey: No this just points up the size and the magnitude of New York, its population, its economy, and everything else as a city. A lot of people don't really realize that. They do think of New York, Los Angeles, Chicago as three big cities, which is what they are, but New York stands out far and above. These new census numbers just emphasize that.

Brian Lehrer: Of course, I think it's fair to say Los Angeles is a competitively sized metro area to New York. It's chopped up differently. A lot are technically not in city of LA but the population is almost the same of the metro area let's say.

William Frey: New York still comes out pretty much ahead on that too but it's closer. Of course, in Los Angeles, you have lots of cities of reasonable size that are not the city of Los Angeles that are point into that metropolitan area. I think New York's going to stay ahead for a while but you're right. Just comparing the cities between the two are not the same as talking about metropolitan areas.

Brian Lehrer: It still certainly is a government challenge because if you're the Mayor of New York and you've got 9 million people and that means every one of those families' kids who are in the public school which adds up to over a million in the public school system, 1 million children. When you have less than half the number of total people in the city under one governmental jurisdiction as you do in LA, it's easier to run the public schools, it's easier to take out the trash, everything and everything. It also reflects on what a huge governmental challenge it is to be the Mayor or for that matter the City Council of New York. Now we'll go back to John on Staten island.

John, thanks for your patience while our guest from LA did not win a prize. You ready for some questions?

John: Yes.

Brian Lehrer: Bill, hit him up.

William Frey: In the New York City population, what percentage of the population identifies as non-Hispanic white? It's a technical term but essentially means white people who are not Hispanic. What percentage?

John: Percentage, okay.

Brian Lehrer: Percentage of the New York City population listing as non-Hispanic white. We've got to give them a range here so let's say within five percentage points.

John: I am going to go for 40%.

Brian Lehrer: That is wrong, John. Thanks for giving it a shot. 32.1%. Now, let's hold that thought. We'll talk about it and we'll keep going with Chloe in the Bronx. Hi, Chloe.

Chloe: Hi.

Brian Lehrer: You ready?

Chloe: I hope so.

Brian Lehrer: Bill, so non-Hispanic whites make up 32% of the New York City population. Next question.

William Frey: Yes, what percent are Blacks in the city of New York.

Brian Lehrer: As per their own responses on the 2020 census within five percentage points?

Chloe: Oh, I feel I should know this and I am just guessing. I am going to say 18%.

Brian Lehrer: Oh, once again just out of the range. We're going to give that answer. It's 24.3%. 32% white, 24% Black. Sam in Brooklyn, hi, you ready for the next question that's in this same set?

Sam: I am. Thank you so much for having me.

Brian Lehrer: I'll just say it. We've done non-Hispanic white, we've done Black, so the next question is, within five percentage points, what percentage of New York City residents listed themselves as Hispanic on the 2020 census?

Sam: What was the Black population?

Brian Lehrer: 24%.

Sam: Within 5%?

Brian Lehrer: Yes.

Sam: 21%.

Brian Lehrer: Oh, again wrong. It is 29%, and we'll do one and complete the set. Mike in Park Slope, you're on WNYC. Hi, Mike, so the final question is in this particular set, how many people said that they are Asian percentage of New York City residents within five percentage points?

Mike: This is Mike [unintelligible 00:12:44] from Brooklyn, New York. I would say about 2.5% to 3%.

Brian Lehrer: Once again wrong. Mike, thank you very much. Wow, we're really learning a lesson here, Bill, about how hard this all is and what people tend to think. Of course, our sample of respondents is small but 32% of the New York City population non-Hispanic white, 24% Black, 29% Hispanic. That tripped up the last caller two callers ago assuming that the Hispanic population would still be less than the Black population, and the last caller said Asian Americans 2%, and the answer is 14%. What does that tell you as a demographer about how New York City has changed since the 2010 census?

William Frey: Well, I think what people have in their mind is the 2010 census. Since then, there's actually been a decline of the Black population in the city of New York. There's a big gain in the Asian, especially the Asian population, but also the Hispanic population. That Asian and Hispanic gain through immigration or just from other parts of the United States, plus some Black flight, a little bit of Black flight, and some white flight has changed the picture I think in just 10 years of what people-- their perception is of the city and it's going to change even further I believe going ahead.

Brian Lehrer: All right. We're just about out of time for the segment. We're going to do another quiz tomorrow on life by the numbers with a different cut. We'll tell you tomorrow what that topic is. We have time for just one more, in fact, just one more question, and it's going to go to Katie in Manhattan. Katie, you're on WNYC. You ready to play?

Katie: I'm ready.

Brian Lehrer: All right. We just have time for one more question but it's a multi-part so if you get this right, you will win a t-shirt or a mug. The question is, Bill, you want to ask her question number 20? The last question in our set.

William Frey: Sure. Can you name the four biggest countries by population in the world in order?

Katie: In order. Number one would be China.

Brian Lehrer: That's correct.

Katie: Two would be India.

Brian Lehrer: That is correct.

Katie: Three I want to say Brazil.

Brian Lehrer: Oh, and there we end with what has turned out to be a really harder than I expected population-by-the-numbers quiz. The third most populous country is the United States and the fourth is Indonesia. If we had time, I would've gone on to the numbers in each country. Bill, give us one last thought to wrap this up. China has 1.4 billion people, India a little less with still about 1.4 billion people. Then, it goes so far down from there to the United States with 330 or so million and then Indonesia 279 million. All of which is to say China and India are in a category by themselves.

William Frey: Yes, absolutely. We like to think the US is a big population but it's down there. To get through some of those other questions that we missed, we had the lowest rate of growth in this last 10 years in any decade and since our history except for the decade of the Great Depression in the 1930s. We're not going to be growing very much rapidly in the future. Our immigration isn't as high as it used to be. We're getting older, fewer people are having children or putting off having children, and so we're going to be close to being a more stagnant population than certainly these fast-growing countries in the rest of the world.

Brian Lehrer: Of course, a comparison to the Great Depression decade of the 1930s, it was the great recession decade. How quickly we forget with other things that have come up like the pandemic and January 6th, but it was the decade of the Great Recession and similarly people expected a baby boom during the pandemic and it didn't happen, instead there was a baby bust. We can talk on another day about why that might have been. We thank William Fry demographer from Brookings Metro, and say the name of your book title again so everybody can hear it.

William: Yes. It's called Diversity Explosion: How New Racial Demographics Are Remaking America.

Brian Lehrer: Thanks, Bill.

William: Sure, good to be with you.

Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer on WNYC, much more to come.

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