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Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer at WNYC. Have you moved out of the city recently? Since the pandemic began, the suburbs around New York City from New Jersey to Westchester to Connecticut to Long Island have been experiencing enormous demand for homes of all prices. A surge that is unlike any in recent memory according to officials, real estate agents, and residents. What's causing it? Is it that the city has become unlivable in the eyes of many, or is it a simple case of the supply not meeting the demand? The demand is the same as it ever was, but because real estate markets were closed in spring, the market is temporarily overwhelmed.

Are the people moving people who would have moved anyway in a matter of months or a few years because a certain percentage of city dwellers move to raise kids or whatever? Or are these genuine city lovers who had to make a hard choice about their safety as they see it and their perceived quality of life? It's easy to oversimplify this story, I think, as a mass exodus by those with the means, but maybe it's not that simple at all. Here with me now is Matthew Haag, a reporter on the Metro desk at the New York Times, where he covers the intersection of real estate and politics. His article is New Yorkers are Fleeing to the Suburbs: The Demand is Insane. Hi, Matthew, welcome to WNYC.

Matthew Haag: Hi, Brian, it's good to be here.

Brian: That's a quote from one of your sources, I think, "The demand is insane," right? Who said that?

Matthew: That was James Hughes. He's a real estate agent in West Orange, East Orange Houston, and that part of New Jersey, who said he noticed in late May and early June when the market started to reopen and you could have some showings that the demand, not just from people within that state, but coming from New York was just outrageous. He was saying that about 60% of the offers that he would receive on a home were people from within the city, from Manhattan, Queens, or Brooklyn, and sometimes the Bronx and he had never seen anything like it.

I checked in with him the other day and he said it's still just as sustained, this exodus and people have interest in homes out there is something he hasn't seen and he just doesn't know when it's going to end.

Brian: Who's doing it?

Matthew: It's people from the city. Some of them who I talked to are, as you mentioned, those who had a timeline of maybe three, five years out that they would leave when they thought it was time with the kids and wanted more space, just a normal transition out of the city into the suburbs, but I've talked to plenty of people who love the city and wanted to stay, but they looked around and saw that New York, at least temporarily, is not what it was. The places they used to visit and shop and eat at weren't open when they made this decision in June and July, and they couldn't take it and they've had kids, they couldn't take it anymore, they needed space.

They physically needed more space in the house, from the way we work now with offices, they need office space, they need space to entertain their kids inside, to have homeschool, and then outside. Just all this paradigm shift happening at once brought on by COVID and people needed space immediately, and so they started looking outside the city.

Brian: Listeners, help us report this story. Have you just moved from the city to the suburbs or are you currently looking? If so, what made you move or what is making you look and what are you seeing out there in terms of availability of things, bidding wars, whatever? 646-435-7280, if this sounds like you, if you have moved on out of New York City and to the surrounding suburbs since the beginning of the pandemic, or if you are currently looking to do so and the pandemic has affected your behavior, 646-435-7280, 646-435-7280 or tweet @BrianLehrer, and we will watch our Twitter go by and see about that.

You're right, it is an exodus that analysts say is reminiscent of the one that fueled the suburbanization of America in the second half of the 20th century. I will say that there's an article on the real estate site Curbed that postulates that this is being exaggerated, at least in national terms because there's really only two places where people seem to be moving from in large numbers and they are Manhattan and San Francisco. What data are the analysts who you spoke with looking at to make that very sweeping comparison with like the 1950s?

Matthew: They're looking at the demand. It's the discovery of the suburbs, it's how they looked at it. People from the city who are realizing the suburbs are a great option for schools and space if that is a top priority, which it is for so many families right now. So they are discovering the suburbs like so many Americans did in the second half of the 20th century. There's an incentive to look down there as there were decades ago that the city is not what it was right now, it very well could come back to where it was, but it's not right now and they have urgent pressing needs, and they can't just sit in the city and wait for things to rebound, they need to start a life elsewhere.

They're saying that that demand and what people are saying or what they're looking for and why they're looking for it is reminiscent of this demand earlier and decades earlier. What is different, though, is back then, it was mostly white flight, now you look at the suburbs around the city, buyers who are going to these suburbs like Maplewood and elsewhere and finding that they're perhaps just as diverse as the city. You see social-economical and also race. They're finding that it's very welcoming and it's not like the suburbs that were that perhaps even President Trump describes, it's far more diverse and welcoming and it's not so different from leaving Brooklyn.

It might be hard to hear that, but that's what some people are telling me.

Brian: Before we take a few phone calls, over the past few months, there have been many stories like this, CNBC had The Flight to the Suburbs is Real and Growing. The Guardian had So Long New York Pandemic and Protests Sparked New Exodus to the Suburbs. The New York Post had New Yorkers Flee NYC in Droves. I can't help but think that some of this coverage is coming during a time that Donald Trump is villainizing cities and propping up the suburbs as the true America. In fact, his latest tweet, as we sit here, says, "Suburban voters are pouring into the Republican Party because of the violence in Democrat-run cities and states.

If Biden gets in, this violence is "coming to the suburbs and fast," you could say goodbye to your American dream." My question is, is that just Trump's politics of desperation in a race that, by all polling indicators, he is currently losing, or is the real estate market in the suburbs being either driven or maybe now hampered by that?

Matthew: I'm reluctant to get inside President Trump's head, but I will say that the suburbs that he's describing do not match the suburbs at least around New York City. Maybe some of them will be made up of a lot of his supporters, people who would be to like his style of politics, but I spoke to a couple from Brooklyn who specifically chose Maplewood in New Jersey because they felt like it was a liberal, progressive city that reflected the ideals of New York City of being welcoming to all sorts of people, and where you can make a name for yourself. That's what they were searching for in the suburbs and they found it.

That would not fit the definition that I think President Trump would have of what the suburbs are made up of, but the suburbs have changed over many decades. It's not like this, it just happened because of the pandemic, they have reflected New York City for a long time now. I don't know how it's playing out elsewhere in the country. New York is a place where it attracts all these workers in Manhattan, and because of the transit, as much as we'd like to deride it around here, it does connect people from far upstate down to Connecticut down Long Island.

You can live out in the suburbs here and take mass transit, which just makes New York City this large region where you can have a two-acre property on Long Island and take the train in to the city.

Brian: Let's hear what a few callers have to say. Noah in Queens, you're on WNYC, I see you just bought a home in Nassau County after living in Queens. Hi, Noah, tell us your story real quick.

Noah: Hi, Brian, how are you? Yes, my wife and I, we were living in a one-bedroom apartment in Forest Hills, Queens, which we love very much. The pandemic hit and my job went all work from home in March. I work for the city and we knew we had wanted to purchase a home maybe within the next two to three years, and we then saw the rates started dropping 4% to 3% and below 3% for mortgage. We thought we're going to be home for a while, my landscape I work is probably going to change in the future where they'll have me work from home probably years down the road.

Brian: Work from home enabled it, but also you did say you were looking to move out there anyway within a few years. That's interesting. Noah, thank you very much. Anita, a real estate agent in Brooklyn. You're on WNYC. Hi, Anita.

Anita: Hi.

Brian: What do you have for us?

Anita: I don't agree with the assertion that everybody's leaving New York. I am selling real estate in Brooklyn and I'm busy. This is the busiest summer I've had in years.

Brian: Who's buying in Brooklyn and why?

Anita: Most of the people buying here are moving from other places of Brooklyn. I have people looking for more space. I think I have a lot of renters looking to buy, and possibly that's the interest rates. Maybe some of them are in roommate situations and are looking to buy their own place, but they're coming to Brooklyn, they're not necessarily going to New Jersey.

Brian: Anita, thank you very much. Peter in Huntington, you're on WNYC. Hi, Peter.

Peter: Hi, Brian, how are you? Thanks for taking my call.

Brian: Sure.

Peter: I think I'm on both sides of the equation. In construction, going through the roof, renovations, people coming out, staying out here, rentals on Long Island absolutely gone crazy. $10,000 a month for a little place in my town for people coming out of the city, but at the same time, I have my daughter and roommates who have just moved into the city attending NYU, and there, they've seen for a 12-month lease, three and a half to four months free rent. The overarching issue coming both ways started with the pandemic but really has now turned into a safety issue. That's what I'm hearing that people just do not feel safe.

They don't think that this issue is being properly managed by the mayor, maybe the governor, so they want out. At the same time, that's being reflected in the low rental rates that people that are willing to put up with that or try that because of their situation. What started as a pandemic now, I think has turned into a security issue.

Brian: Peter, thank you very much. We'll do one more before we go back to a guest for a comment on this set of calls. Alex in Greenwich Village, you're on WNYC. Hi, Alex.

Alex: Hi, I'm wondering if your guest could speak to the segment on the media on Wednesday with Jeff Andrews who said that the suburban uptake is now because there's only two-thirds of supply because homeowners are unsure about listing their house and finding another during the pandemic, but twice the demand because everyone who wanted to move in the spring but couldn't because the markets are closed are looking now when the housing market is finally open. Also, has he talked to anyone other than realtors for his research.

Brian: Great, Alex, thank you very much. Do you want to take her questions first since she has asked specific questions?

Matthew: Sure. Right, so on the last part, I don't have the numbers off the top of my head, but she is right, supply is way down. Supply meaning the properties on the market for sale. Rental supply is way up in the city, but housing supply outside is way down, so there's fewer homes to go around and I was told it's because the normal cycle of families looking to upgrade their homes, perhaps they're not trying to do that because of their own economic situation, unsure about jobs and potential furloughs or unemployment in the future. There's fewer people willing to sell their homes, but there are enough and the demand is so huge.

That's how you get home selling in a matter of days, getting 25 offers selling for 20 to 25% all-cash above the listing price. That is a dynamic that's playing out across the region. There is some pent up demand because if you go back to March, April, May, showings, at least with a real estate agent, was prohibited all across the region. Starting in June, some people would go out on their own and buyers would and look around or even showings virtually, that has now reopened where you can have in-person showings. There is pent up demand that is certainly part of it, but there is also this change in the way we live and work that's also playing a big part in it.

The other caller who mentioned crime. It's interesting, I've heard more of that from readers and emails after the story run than I heard from people who are on the ground either buying, selling, or helping to buy and sell to agents. I've heard it occasionally and I would ask because I would hear from readers and I'd say, "Are buyers mentioning crime?" Some would, none that I heard of like victims of crime saying they want to leave, but it's mostly people who are reading reports, seeing the stats, seeing the murders, and reacting to that. Although New York City a year today, overall crime is down a little bit, shootings and murders are up. The crime is overall down.

Brian: The last caller also asked, "Are real estate agents good sources for stories like these?" Because it is in their best interest to make it seem like the market is hot, hot, hot, right?

Matthew: Right, so interesting, nobody pitched me on this story. My wife works out of our same apartment and she's on conference calls and her co-workers live in Jersey, and I first started hearing this in like May saying, "We're thinking about buying a place," and so I wrote down that story idea, and waited for the stats to bear it out at the end of July. I make contacts with all these agents on my own, none of them pitched me on this. I saw some stories elsewhere that you mentioned earlier in the call, but this sort of comprehensive look, it was not brought to me like, "Hey, would you love to write a story about how the suburbs are booming and York City is suffering." That wasn't what was brought to me.

Brian: The earlier caller, who's a real estate agent in Brooklyn, she said, "Brooklyn seems hot, too." One of the stats that I've been seeing about the rental market is that vacancies are up in Manhattan, and people are offering discounts on the rent in Manhattan. Not that big, but maybe 10% is one number that I've seen, but not in Brooklyn, where the discounts that they're giving on rent or maybe one half of 1%. What do you say to her on those stats that I read?

Matthew: She is right. Three or four months' rent as that one caller mentioned, in Manhattan, that would have been unheard of before this. That is you can't downplay the desire of landlords to find tenants, so that is a big deal. In Brooklyn, not just rentals, but home sales, the latest report in August, home sales are condos, co-ops, and single-family in Manhattan was down substantially again in August. It's often in Brooklyn. There were 128 single-family homes sold in August, this August versus 50 the year before, so there is demand in Brooklyn.

I am hearing that some renters are seeing prices perhaps falling or potentially falling and hoping to make that transition and making it more affordable to buy in Brooklyn, so that is happening. She is certainly right about that.

Brian: We will leave it there. As the real estate market is always hot, hot, hot, that the topic for conversation in New York City, and confusingly so, in the year of the pandemic and everything else in New York City. Matthew Hagg, reporter on the Metro Desk at the New York Times where he covers the intersection of real estate and politics. Thank you so much for sharing your reporting with us. We really appreciate it.

Matthew: Thank you for having me, Brian.

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