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Brian Lehrer: It's the Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC. Good Monday morning, everyone. The voting has begun, if you haven't noticed, in New York and New Jersey with early voting post sites opening this past weekend. In Connecticut, there is no early voting. Did you know that? It's one of just four states in the nation without it but heads up [unintelligible 00:00:32]. There is a ballot measure you can vote on this year that would implement early voting for future years. Of course, if you have an absentee ballot from any state, you can send it in at any time.

One interesting note about Georgia, which they were just covering on the BBC, for those of you who are listening to that, there was that controversial new voting law that some people consider a voting suppression law, especially aimed at African Americans, and some other tend to vote democratic groups. Early voting starts early there. There's plenty of early voting, but there are some restrictions on weekend voting. Their early voting ends this Friday.

I just noticed that detail this morning. Early voting in New York and New Jersey, for example, and by contrast, go through Sunday next weekend. It ends on Friday in Georgia, so they've, obviously, made a choice for people who have the power to make that policy that the time when so many people who vote early vote, which is the final weekend before election day, there is no early voting on that final weekend in Georgia coming up, so just a point of interest.

Later this hour, we'll talk to Philip Bump from The Washington Post and Lisa Lehrer, no relation, from The New York Times about the national state of the midterms and about the attack on Paul Pelosi and where that fits in as well as about the attack itself. We begin with today's 30 Issues in 30 Days election segment. It's 30 Issues in 30 Days Issue 26 as we enter the final week of the series, the final week before election day. The final week is your money week in our 30 Issue series. We'll be examining Democratic and Republican approaches to housing, healthcare, and inflation this week.

We begin with this question, "Which is the party of the working class?" Now, working class is not an exact term. It's more or less a combination of income, education levels, and type of job. There are some cultural factors there, too from various cultures, the white working class and Americans of color working class have long voted about as opposite from each other.

As you can get, most of this especially Blacks and whites. One of the dynamics of the race this year, as in other recent elections, is Republicans trying to make inroads with working-class Blacks, Latinos, and Asians, especially Latinos as Democrats make inroads with more college-educated white suburban voters who are alienated by Donald Trump and other Republicans they consider extreme.

This is not to say either party is actually better than the other for representing anyone. We're just covering it, just that those have been the trends in recent elections. More Republican votes among working-class voters of color, though, still very small percentages. These are major demographic battlegrounds in this year's campaign. Listeners, which party is legitimately the party of the working class of any kind, in your view, and has that changed for you over time? 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692 or tweet @BrianLehrer.

One state reported to be in play with implications for control of the Senate is Nevada where there's a big Latino population and a Latina Democrat running for re-election against Adam Laxalt, a white Republican male, here is Laxalt running on the way inflation is hurting working-class voters.

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Adam Laxalt: People are as upset as they've ever been with what's happening to America. They can't believe that Joe Biden and Catherine Cortez Masto have done this much damage to our great country and to our great state in just two short years.

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Brian Lehrer: Republican candidate, Adam Laxalt. He's tying Senator Catherine Cortez Masto to Joe Biden there in that clip as an economic vulnerability. She's tying inflation and Adam Laxalt to the oil industry.

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Catherine Cortez Masto: I take on Big Oil because they're squeezing my families at the gas tank. I see it. My family lives here as well, but my opponent's not. He actually makes money at a DC law firm that represents Big Oil. He's a prescription-drug negotiation.

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Brian Lehrer: Catherine Cortez Masto and Adam Laxalt from clips played this weekend on PBS. With us now, Bryan Mena, Wall Street Journal economics reporter. He's got a southwest background as a University of Texas at El Paso grad. He's got an article on this topic called Latino Voters, Once Solidly Democratic, Split Along Economic Lines, and Elena Schneider, national political reporter at Politico, who has also reported on how Senate and gubernatorial races during the 2016 and 2018 cycles. Among her recent articles is one called Working-class struggles shake Nevada, threatening Democratic Party. Elena Schneider, welcome back. Bryan Mena, welcome to WNYC.

Elena Schneider: Thank you so much for having me.

Bryan Mena: Thanks for having me.

Brian Lehrer: Again, listeners, from anywhere who consider yourself working class, however you define that or any Latinos and Latinos of any background or economic condition since that's a lot of who's in play here and who's being covered, help us report this story. You'll get first priority on the phones, which is your party for the economy, has that changed over time or described other people you know in this respect. I know there are a lot of family conversations, intergenerational conversations, and such that are going on right now along these lines, which is the party of the working class. 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692 or tweet @BrianLehrer.

Elena, your article is about Nevada in particular, and we played those clips. Why do you frame this article in terms of working-class struggles cutting into the longtime Democratic coalition there?

Elena Schneider: Because, in so many ways, Nevada represents ground zero for where these converging and diverging, so trend lines are happening. Nevada is a working-class state. It has the lowest concentration of college-educated voters of a battleground state. This is a state that's contested by both parties in which both parties have won. In fact, Democrats have a really good track record in Nevada. 2016 when Donald Trump won the presidency, Hillary Clinton still won Nevada even as she saw her blue wall of midwestern states that traditionally had gone blue crumble for her.

She was able to pull it out in Nevada. It has been a place that since 2016 has really maintained the blue streak where Democrats have won up and down the ballot. Yet, it's really being challenged in this moment because we are seeing Nevada, which is so buffeted by economic forces because of its reliance on the tourism industry, because of the strip, because of Las Vegas, and has a broadly diversified beyond that as much as maybe other states because that economic base fare is so central.

COVID really really hit that state incredibly hard. Yes, certainly, a lot has recovered, but I think the scars of that experience are still felt very deeply, and then on top of that, you layer in cost of living rises that we've seen across the country but felt obviously particularly in Nevada by those who tend to be less affluent. They feel inflation even more acutely and then Nevada's gas prices have also been incredibly high amongst the highest of the states in the country.

Putting all of those things together. That puts a huge amount of pressure on the relationship between Democrats and working-class voters of color. I wanted to go to Nevada because the playbook there has been successful for Democrats, but it's important to remember, too, that nationally, there's been a real shift. It's happening at the margin, so Democrats are still winning working-class voters of color, but they're not winning them by as much. In 2016, Democrats won non-college voters of color by about 84%. In 2016, it was down to 81%. That was Hillary Clinton and then Joe Biden won them by 75%. That's, again, a 6% drop.

Clearly, still winning a broad majority of working-class voters of color, but those margins really matter when states are going to be incredibly tight across the country. Nevada, as I said, is really ground zero for that story. If Cortez Masto was able to pull it out, it's because she's been able to work against that trend line. If Adam Laxalt wins, then maybe it's more evidence that this group of voters is reconsidering what coalition it wants to be a part of.

Brian Lehrer: Yes, Bryan Mena, your article on Latinos generally splitting along economic lines more begins in Nevada with a 44-year-old immigrant from Mexico who runs a taco business. Tell us about Vania Oronoz and why you led with her story.

Bryan Mena: That's right. Not only is Nevada a perfect example of this political battle for working-class Latinos, but also specific neighborhoods in Las Vegas, particularly east and north Las Vegas. We looked at census tracks and we looked at voting patterns, and we found that President Biden carried 75% of the vote in neighborhoods with voters who are 70% Latino, which was 10% points less, and Democrats had won in 2016. My job when I went to Las Vegas as I had to find these voters, and so I spoke with Vania Oronoz who is an immigrant from Mexico. She told me about how she became a citizen in 2020, a few weeks before the 2020 election.

She voted for President Biden. She told me that her friends, everybody she knew who was Latino they all voted for Democrats and she never questioned it. She voted for President Biden in 2020. A couple years later, she started to learn more about the issues about the different parties. She told me that she's realizing that maybe she's a conservative. That was the same sort of sentiment that I had with that different Latino voters, is that they realized that they're feeling the permission that they can vote for other candidates despite some Latinos saying that they should vote for Democrats. I think Ms. Oronoz really captured this shifting sentiment.

She told me that she was lucky to vote for Republicans. She said that she's learning more. Yes, so you're starting to see these sentiments take place in Nevada and these battleground states like Nevada, even in parts of South Texas where Latinos are feeling permission to vote for Republicans.

Brian Lehrer: How is it that they would be feeling permission, and you call it in your Wall Street article social acceptability to vote GOP? We know that Republicans are trying to pull back. Republicans are not trying to pull back on anti-Latino immigration rhetoric in any way to really try to build their coalition that way like we could say George W. Bush and John McCain, for example, did as president, Presidential candidate, Senator advocating a path to citizenship for millions of law-abiding undocumented immigrants.

Now we see the Republicans being very nativist, but trying to pick off just a few percentage points of Latinos who are willing to overlook that and give real power to the white conservative majority who the Republicans arguably really represent. Am I putting it in a way that is a real conversation among Latino families in South Texas where, I guess, you're from or live for a while and places that you're covering as a reporter?

Bryan Mena: Well, certainly, it's very nuance. The one thing that strategies say, that Latinos say is that Latinos are not a monolith. You definitely have the diversity of thought, diversity of politics within this demographic. I spoke with one voter and I asked her, "How do you reconcile?" She says she advocates for immigrants, but yet she supports Donald Trump. She said that when Donald Trump said that the comment about some people who crossed the border being rapist and thugs. She said that Donald Trump's referring to the cartels, the people who were hurting immigrants through human trafficking and so.

That's how some Latinos view the issue. They say they support border security. It's definitely very nuance. That's how they reconcile with these talking points from Republicans. They talk about securing the border when they talk about, and I'm going to use words like invasion. It's definitely very nuanced as far as how they reconcile that issue.

Brian Lehrer: Elena, you pull out from Nevada to a national trend in your article also, you write, the Democratic Party is relying more than ever on white suburbanites, though other groups outnumber them by significant numbers in most battleground states. Who are you referring to there as most other groups who are outnumbering white college-educated, suburbanites?

Elena Schneider: Non-College voters. That's who outnumbered college educated as a country. I think about a third. I don't have the numbers right in front of me, but certainly, less than half the country has a college education. We're talking about people who maybe did some college but didn't complete it, or high school education. Also, I want to fold into that voters of color as well. I think you made a point that's worth emphasizing at the top, which is to say that what is a working-class voter is still very much a working definition. Often pollsters will use non-college education as a way i.e did not go to college as a way to describe somebody who they consider working class.

There are plenty of people who did not go to college but have incredibly stable and well-paying jobs. It's obviously not as common, but it's worth noting that that exists. At the same time, there are plenty of college graduates who are drowning in enormous amounts of debt and would not see themselves as anything other than working class. It's really fascinating how we, as Politico journalists, but also Politico operatives and strategists think about this group because I think that we might need to reconsider how we imagine them because I think that there might be other ways. One pollster suggested to me, what if we looked at people who had a passport versus those who don't?

Is this more of an access to the broader world? Is it more cultural versus just purely whether you have more education or less education? I think that that's part of this conversation that makes it more complicated and for those of us journalists more complicated to report on. It's an important part of this narrative that I don't want to leave out. I'm glad that you mentioned it.

Brian Lehrer: Thank you for bringing it up too. Joseph [unintelligible 00:16:12], you're on WNYC. Hi, Joseph. Thank you for calling in.

Joseph: Hi. Thank you. I just wanted to say that it's pretty obvious to me the Democratic Party is still the party of working people, and we just heard about people drowning in college debt. Well, it was the Democrats who wanted to give people some relief for that, and the Republicans who didn't. It was the Democrats who just permitted Medicare to try and bring down the price of drugs. It's Republicans who don't want that. I just don't get the idea that somehow Republicans have become the party of working people.

Brian Lehrer: Joseph, thank you very much. Any Republicans out there who want to respond to Joseph? Make your case that the Republican party is more the party of working people. 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692, or tweet @BrianLehrer. Let's go on another caller. Teresa in Brooklyn. Teresa, you're on WNYC. Hello.

Teresa: Hi, it's a pleasure to speak to you. It's my first time as a caller. Hi. I am a second-generation Latina. I was raised in a household of Democrats. I am no longer a Democrat, but I'm not a Republican either. What I would like to say is that I've sat down with family members and we've discussed the economy and we've said, "Well, we realize that the inflation is international at this point. We realize that it has to do with Ukraine also." When we sit down and we talk about the Republican Party, my sister wants to know what are the Republicans offering people.

They keep saying this, that, and the other, but they have no solutions. We also sit down and say that we could never follow a party that has Trump or DeSantis as leaders because of the fact that, with Trump, when he went down the escalator, he offended any Latin, but I'll say we're Mexicans when he said about us being rapists and drug addicts and stuff like that. I have two brothers that are hardworking individuals, both were in the United States military. That resonates in my heart, every time I see that man, what he said about a whole generation of people.

Brian Lehrer: Teresa, I'm going to-- Let me leave there. Thank you so much for calling. Please call us again. Thanks for making a first-time call to the show. We would love to hear from you. Again, but let me turn back to our two reporters, Elena Schneider from Politico and Bryan Mena from the Wall Street Journal. Teresa brings up the question of, oh, Yes, this policy, which party actually has the policies to more help working-class people economically? Even though the trend is for Republicans to be picking up a few more points in this category among working-class voters of color, however, we define working class.

That's very much how they're campaigning. Is it really true that Republicans are the party that builds better economies? Do they really have the better record or the better policies for this moment? Now, you two are reporters, so I'm not going to ask you to take sides, but maybe you can lay out a little bit of how each party is trying to make the case substantively that they are the party of the working class based on their policies. Elena, would you start with that?

Elena Schneider: Sure. Democrats would certainly point to what they have done over the last two years as proof points for why they're the party of the working class, starting with COVID relief and sending out checks to families back almost two years ago now that Biden started his administration with. There's a number of policy issues that I think a caller earlier mentioned of, allowing Medicaid and Medicare to negotiate drug prices, excuse me, Medicare, to negotiate drug prices.

Something that came through the Inflation reduction Act as well as the child tax credit, which will be sunset but it was an effort to try and get more money in the hands of not just working class, but poor families who had children. They talk and they do talk about that. When I was with Catherine Cortez Masto at a back-of-house tour at Mandalay Bay, she talked about the Inflation Reduction Act as a way for them to work on lowering drug prices to bring down the energy costs through the work that they did on climate change through that bill.

That's what they talk about, but I think that there's still this awareness and sense that even as they are trying to point to the things they've done, that people are not feeling it yet and trying to also meet voters where they are in terms of acknowledging the pain that they're still in and that is, I think, the harder bridge to cross is even as you are the party in power trying to say, I hear you, that things are still not better, you're still not feeling it and that there's still interest in blaming someone and in blame.

That's also what I heard from some voters. It's just, these are the people who are in power and my life hasn't gotten better and as simplistic as that is for people who are busy, who don't have time to read and pay attention to news, that is sometimes a calculation that comes to their heads.

Then, on the Republican side of things, I think they would point to tax cuts as one area. They focus on some of the changes they've done for middle-class families in the 2017 tax cuts but obviously, the vast majority of that was really focused on the upper income and businesses. It's more of what they focus on in that tax conversation versus what actually happened back in 2017 when those were passed, but they also really lean into cultural issues more so than even the economic.

They use a lot of blame use a lot of-- Look at how bad things are right now, vote for the other guy i.e me, but also then pull it into a cultural conversation as well as to get people who would say the Democrats are not focused on economics, they're actually focused on critical race theory or they're focused on pronouns. That's the way that you often hear Republicans talk about and try to rally people who are frustrated generally.

Brian Lehrer: To change the subject and just say, Biden's in power. Bryan, from your reporting for the Wall Street Journal and you're an economics reporter, as well as covering some of these politics, if Republicans are more anti-union and more for cutting taxes on the rich and more opposed to government benefits like childcare or the earned income tax credit for families with children and Obamacare, health insurance subsidies and Medicaid expansion and as Elena just mentioned, prescription drug negotiation by Medicare with the pharmaceutical companies and therefore, cuts to public education. All government programs that work in class, Americans of all colors rely on more than higher-income Americans. How do they make the case, economically, that they're better to represent them?

Bryan Mena: In terms of the economy, we know that and a lot of Republican candidates have conceded that inflation is global and a lot of that falls on the Federal Reserve to handle, but I spoke with one Democratic state assemblyman who represents a heavily Latino district in Las Vegas and he told me that it all falls down to the messaging.

He was saying that Democrats don't often have a very succinct economic pitch on what they can do and some of them have been tied in the Inflation Reduction Act, but this also falls down to a messaging problem, it falls down to the political optics of it because when I speak to voters they tell me that they just know that gas prices were higher when I spoke with them in the summer and that Democrats were in charge and so that's all they may know and so they know that when they want to make a change they should vote for Republicans when it comes to lowering prices.

As far as the politics, then that helps out Republicans because they talk about it, they really hammer it home that inflation is higher but we know that the conversation is much more nuanced than that. We know that there are different factors at play that are keeping prices elevated and so Republicans see that as an opportunity and so they jump on it. There's a whole messaging aspect of it as far as how well Democrats can really bring home their message that they want to bring down prices but ultimately, when you have these political forces in play, when you have the party in power and the midterm comes up, that party is inherently going to struggle a bit.

Brian Lehrer: We'll continue in a minute. Brian Lehrer on WNYC.

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Brian Lehrer on WNYC, Issued 26 in our 30 Issues in 30 Days election series, who's the party of the working class as both parties are trying very hard to portray themselves as that. Our guests are Bryan Mena, Wall Street Journal reporter, and Elena Schneider, Politico reporter. Lee in [unintelligible 00:26:17], you're on WNYC. Hi, Lee. Thanks for calling in.

Lee: No problem. I am somewhat of a outlier. I'm a working-class Republican. Came from a family Democrats, originally an independent. I'll tell you, by me, it's economics tax policy and I don't need all the bells and whistles, what their child care and all that stuff. At the end of the day, I want more money in my paycheck. I work two jobs and I could tell you, another issue is, like you just said, on what's to be discussed tomorrow that focused on racial equity. They're focused on pronouns, they're focused on a lot of stuff. Meanwhile, gas is $4 a gallon, a dozen of eggs is, if I could find it, $4, insane numbers. I've never seen anything like this. Inflations at the 40-year high and--

Brian Lehrer: Lee, let me, let me follow up. I'm curious, can you say, if you come to a conclusion, that that's because of the policies of Biden or the Democratic Congress, they would argue this inflation is global. It's actually a little lower here than it is in Europe, for example, or that the Republicans have the policies to fight inflation, in particular?

Lee: Well, I could tell you the Inflation Reduction Act was so loaded with pork and climate change stuff that had absolutely nothing to do with reducing inflation. That was the store that broke the camel's back for me and if I had any inkling of voting Democrat this year, when you looked at where the money went on the Inflation Reduction Act, it didn't go to reduce inflation, it went for pork bridal projects.

Brian Lehrer: Lee, thank you very much. Please call us again. Elena Schneider, how representative is Lee of Republicans who you've been reporting on this year and he even went to the argument there that the Inflation reduction Act as the Democrats called it, was the last straw for him to think they're doing nothing about inflation?

Elena Schneider: I think Lee's very representative of where a lot of Republican voters are and even Republican-leaning independence are at this point who feel like, as he said, and he laid it out pretty clearly, that he feels like the policies that Democrats are working on is not focused on inflation, but rather, is focused on cultural issues, be it racial equity or pronouns and that that's not of interest for him.

Look, I think that when you vote, it's often a youth-centered as it should be voting on what you want and what you want to see in government and he feels like he's not seeing what he wants reflected in the Democratic party in terms of what they focus on. It goes back to the earlier point of what is being done and how it's being talked about and messaged on and how that's getting communicated to voters and there's a lot of steps between a bill that comes so far in Congress, and how a voter in a state perceives what is actually in that bill.

It's a huge messaging lift for the party that's trying to get it through to explain what's in it and it's also the opposing party's going to try and define the stakes of what they want to focus on and talk about. We then also have a very segmented media landscape as well. There's a lot of challenges here for Democrats, as they're trying to explain what they have done and to make clear both that they feel people's economic pain but they're also trying to do something about it.

One example of where Democrats are trying to go, particularly on the gas prices and eggs that we mentioned, as they would point to the record profits from major corporations, particularly oil companies, who reported some of their highest earnings in the third quarter this year, as sort of a proof point of, "Look, it's not us, it's actually the corporations that are gouging you," but again, in politics, as this total cliché that it is when you're explaining you're losing. It's a much more difficult lift to explain why something is happening than to just say, "Oh, look at those other guys. They're getting it wrong."

Brian Lehrer: Rachel, in the Bronx, you're on WNYC. Hi, Rachel.

Rachel: Good morning, Brian. I'm calling, I'm an academic, African American woman, well-educated, et cetera. As an anthropologist, the elephant in the room is what I want to speak to. I think, for many Latinos, looking at the Democratic Party, and being included a people of color, I don't think they want that. I think they see being in a party that looks at race and equity and questions of justice all important for everybody but to be lumped in with people of color, I think, many don't want that.

Brian Lehrer: Bryan Mena from The Wall Street Journal, in your reporting on Latinos, how much do you find what Rachel says to be true?

Bryan Mena: Right. Again, keeping in mind that Latinos aren't a monolith, you have definitely diversity of thought among Latinos. It definitely does fall down to what each voter values, and how that messaging comes across, and how it resonates for each voter. When I spoke with Democratic politician in Nevada, he told me that Republicans are aware, who really get across their messaging on values. He said, they saw a billboard that said in Spanish family working God.

It said, if that's what you believe in, then you're Republican. For some Latinos, that resonates with them, but for other Latinos, they may resonate more with issues of identity, they're more aligned with the Democratic Party. I guess, what my putting illustrates is that these voters are in play and what resonates with them really does vary any other demographic. Again, when each voter has their own rationale, they have their own ideas that are important for them and so my reporting really show that these voters, they're not that simple, they're not that monolithic. It really just boils down to what they value and what issues are important to them.

Brian Lehrer: Elena, I know you got to jump off so I'm going to let you go, Elena Schneider, national political reporter for Politico. I'm going to take one more call for Bryan Mena from The Wall Street Journal because I do want to acknowledge that one of the threads that we're getting on the phones and on Twitter is a none of the above thread. If the question is framed, which is the party of the working class, or more the party of the working class, Democrats or Republicans, some people are calling to say none of the above, neither of the above, and Justice in Manhattan is one of those callers. Justice, you're on WNYC. Thank you for calling in today.

Justice: Yes, thank you and writing vote, Howie Hawkins, Gloria Mattera for Lieutenant Governor in New York, they've always been the class of working people of all and all people. They have an economic Bill of Rights and so I urge all of you to go to Hawkinsmattrea.org and as well as on that site, put the platform and all there-

Brian Lehrer: Let me ask you to make your case substantively in brief, because people may hear this who are Democrats and consider themselves progressives and think, "Wait, if this is actually getting close between Hochul and the Republican challenger Lee Zeldin in New York, if I vote Vote for the Green Party candidate, I'm going to help the Republican win and that's really going to be bad for progressive economics." How would you argue against that?

Justice: Oh, no. Oh, absolutely, everyone needs to vote for what they believe, to vote for universal, public health care, end poverty with a guaranteed minimum income, universal public childcare, tuition, free public college, affordable housing, inclusive democracy, everyone. Everyone who supports justice and democracy and inclusive democracy for a fair ballot access, ranked choice voting for statewide offices, proportional representation in state legislature.

Brian Lehrer: Thank you. Keep calling us. I appreciate it. Bryan, we'll wrap up with this. Why don't you think that explicitly class-based campaigns from the left like the Bernie Sanders campaign, in particular, have been more successful across racial lines than they have been? Is White identity politics, a strong poll against economic policies? We know that it is in many cases but even when those policies would actually benefit a lot of those voters or do you have an observation one way or another on that?

Bryan Mena: Right. This is where the political forces come into play when Democrats talk about these economic solutions that Republicans had back saying that these are socialist agenda. They have their own talking points, and that often really muddles a conversation as far as what is sound economic policy, which can be complicated and somewhat abstract as far as what works economically. That's what really again, muddles the political conversation, at least among voters.

What they do know is that inflation is high, prices are higher, and so whoever's in power may be at fault to some extent. Those are the dynamics you have in play and as far as what is sound economic policy and, of course, that various, different aspects of what each policy from each party works out because, during the pandemic, economies that had lesser restrictions generally fared better.

There's an argument to be had about what the cost of that was but again, these kind of economic debates can be very complex and when you have the political aspect to it, that just makes it even more complicated to really understand what is sound economic policy, and it all just boils down to which party has better messaging, the more succinct messaging and it just matter which party is more persuasive on what works as far as economic policy.

Brian Lehrer: Bryan Mena, The Wall Street Journal economics reporter, whose articles include Latino Voters, Once Solidly Democratic, Split Along Economic Lines. Bryan, we really appreciate it. Thank you very much.

Bryan Mena: Thanks so much.

 

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