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Brian Lehrer: It's The Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC. Good morning again, everyone. Now, we turn to the political fallout taking place in France, where the country's Prime Minister, François Bayrou resigned this week after he lost a no confidence vote. With their national debt as a central issue, could there be lessons for the United States? As The Economist puts it, it was a three-pronged issue in France, in addition to the political chaos of ousting a prime minister who was quickly replaced within the day, but there have been several such replacements pretty recently.

The country is also experiencing jumpy bond markets, and countrywide street protests. The yield on 10-year French government bonds has climbed to over 3.5% that's on par with Italy, which has been seen as one of Europe's most financially beleaguered countries. Roughly, 80,000 officers across France were deployed on Wednesday to quell a burgeoning new protest movement called Let's Block Everything.

We spoke in an earlier segment this morning how some people might support something like that in the United States. We'll try to explain now why that's happening, and why it's being called a government collapse. Important in its own right in France, of course, and across the EU, but also, perhaps, with lessons for here. There are certainly debt questions in the US, and many Americans who might like the sound of a Let's Block Everything movement. Joining us is Sophie Pedder, Paris Bureau Chief at The Economist, Sophie, thanks so much for giving us some time today. Hello from New York. Welcome back to WNYC.

Sophie Pedder: Oh, you're very welcome. It's a pleasure to join you again. Thank you for inviting me.

Brian Lehrer: I'll ask you to explain the confidence vote, and ouster of the prime minister in a second, but first, the big issue is the national deficit in France, as I understand it, the accumulated debt jumped to 114% of GDP in 2020, where it has stayed. Can you talk about that turmoil over the last five years, and why France hasn't been able to crawl out of debt?

Sophie Pedder: Yes, I mean, initially, when the current president took over, so in 2017, he's now on his second term, that's Emmanuel Macron. He was able to bring down at least the deficit, and to contain the debt, and that was pre-COVID times when we were in a different era. There wasn't such pressure on public spending, and things were looking okay.

What's happened, I think, in France is that, his governments were very slow to withdraw all the public support that they put in place to try and protect the French from all the pressures that were there during COVID, but also after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, and energy prices spiraled. There was a huge amount of government spending on capping energy prices, keeping fuel bills low for consumers, all the things that the French actually benefited from, but cost a fortune for the French government.

France was very slow to unwind all those policies, and in the meantime, the debt was just kept as high as it has been now for several years, as you point out, and the deficit has come down very, very slowly, so I think that's what happened, and that's why France stands out. When you look at other countries, which also put in place a lot of support, but they were able to unwind it a lot more rapidly than France was.

Brian Lehrer: For comparison, the United States, the number that I'm seeing, has about 120% of its GDP in debt. Meaning, folks, for those who don't know what GDP is, that's like the total value of the economy, let's say in the course of a year at any given moment, and debt is more than one year's full value of the economy in the United States, that's a few points higher than France's 114%, but taxes in France are about 44% of GDP, the highest in the EU. That's according to ABC News. You can confirm that if you want, and you were just talking about spending is also high, so why do you think there's been this revolt now in France, or difficulty keeping a government in power, if we haven't had that in the United States with even more debt to GDP?

Sophie Pedder: Yes, I think it's not related directly to that issue. I think that what's actually been taking place in France over the past year, since François Bayrou, the prime minister who was ousted this week when he took over, is an attempt to try and get public opinion to understand that those sorts of levels of public debt, and of public deficit are dangerous for the French economy, and France is part of a currency zone, the Eurozone.

It's not by itself, it has the support of the currency zone, but it has one of the highest levels of public debt, and one of the highest, literally the highest public deficit level in the Eurozone. This breaches all the rules in the European Union. If you belong to that currency zone, you are supposed to bring down your, for example, your government deficit to 3% and France is over 5%, so France is under pressure to do something about this.

The markets are punishing it by putting up the borrowing costs for the French government. What you've actually seen this past nine months from the outgoing prime minister, the one who was voted out by parliament, is an effort to try and make the French understand that this is something that had to happen. Now, his plan to do something about it, is what went down so badly in France, because he wanted, for example, can you imagine this? He wanted to abolish two public holidays.

France has 11 each year. He wanted to abolish two of those, so it was a budget savings, it was the cost cutting. It was the whole sense in which things were going to be tightened up. That's what took people onto the streets to protest.

Brian Lehrer: Listeners, anybody listening in right now, or with ties to France want to weigh in on what's happening there, or if there are implications, or lessons to be learned for the United States. 212-433-WNYC, with Sophie Pedder from The Economist there. 212-433-9692. Call or text. One of the phrases that I've seen used, you can remind me if you've used it in your reporting, is the term "government collapse." Does that indicate something more systemic than simply the current government lost confidence, so there'll be new ones, new leaders?

Sophie Pedder: It's an interesting question. I mean, France is different to the US, in that, you can't have a shutdown of government, so when a government is toppled and falls, and we refer to that as the collapse of a government, it is replaced by another one, and even in the meantime, if there is no budget in place, for example, for the next year, you can roll it over, so it's a slightly different situation, but the word "collapse" refers to the replacement of one government that has been voted down by Parliament.

The problem for the president in France is that, he's been running these minority governments. He simply doesn't have a majority, and that makes them very vulnerable, so we've seen two of them voted down by parliament in the last nine months. It's not a good look for France, but it doesn't mean that France-- The French state, or the French government itself is facing any form of shutdown, even if they don't manage by the end of the year to get a budget through for 2026.

Brian Lehrer: What's this Let's Block Everything movement?

Sophie Pedder: It's interesting. I mean, do you remember the Yellow Vest movement back in 2018, which took place in France, and it emerged on social media? Didn't ever have a clear leader, or certainly not one single leader. It was a protest movement against a carbon tax that was imposed on auto fuel, and that movement became-- Initially, was quite peaceful, and it became very violent, and in the end, the government had to back down on that particular policy.

This movement, Let's Block Everything, is very new. It did hold a number of protests across France on Wednesday this week, and that's why there were 80,000 police officers deployed on the streets. I would say, it wasn't as successful as they were hoping it would be. It didn't bring France to a standstill, but it is something we have to watch very carefully in France, because of the history of not only the Yellow Vest movement, but France, as you know, is a country that likes to protest on the streets, and likes rebellion, and therefore these things can grow, take everyone by surprise.

I think it is difficult to get a real grip on this movement at the moment, but it's something that-- Because of that, there's quite edgy atmosphere in France at the moment, a sense of instability in government, there is a mood of protest that mean this sort of rebellion could spread if the government hadn't clamped down on it, which it did on Wednesday this week, at least.

Brian Lehrer: Recalling the Yellow Vest movement, and we talked about this at the time a few years ago, but I wonder what you think now, say, after the election of President Trump, and some of his climate policies that are being implemented. Americans generally think of Europe as being more unambiguously behind restrictions on climate damaging emissions, but the Yellow Vest movement was against the carbon tax, so do we overestimate in this country how much consensus there is in Europe about climate policies?

Sophie Pedder: I think what's happening here, is that when there is a feeling that budgets are being squeezed, and that other priorities matter more, that climate policies generally get relegated to a less of a priority at a national level. Certainly, the parties on the far-right, Marine Le Pen's party, has been very vocal in speaking to that sense, that the priorities are too much focus on costly environmental policies, or ones that actually, in her view, spoil the environment, like these wind turbines that are being put in place in various parts of the French countryside.

I think there is an element of backlash against that. I wouldn't say it's quite challenged the consensus. Europe still, on the whole, is leading on a lot of the climate change measures, but it's certainly challenging that consensus in certain parts of the electorate, and certain parts of a very fragmented political scene in Europe and in France.

Brian Lehrer: Mark in West Orange, you're on WNYC with Sophie Pedder, Paris Bureau Chief for The Economist. Hi, Mark.

Mark: Hello, and bonjour. Anyway, I lived in France when I was much younger, and I have relatives in France, and I visit there often. When I talk to my relatives, I get the sense that there's a cultural reality underneath all of this, wherein the people who work very hard believe that they-- They do, spend a lot of money on being taxed, and they want something back for it.

Their vacation time is three weeks, plus, their holidays are very important. Also, something recent was the retirement age. It was increased from 62 to 64 without a vote. That was a presidential decision, and they are tired of being told what to do. There's also, similar to the United States, a sense of anti-immigrants coming in, getting benefits without working. Whether it's true or not is debatable, but that is the sense, so there's a cultural underpinning to all of this that creates this sensation throughout France.

Brian Lehrer: Mark, thank you for all that. Let's follow up on a few of his points. How about the last one, Sophie? Is there anything like the anti-immigration movement in the United States, in France?

Sophie Pedder: Well, I think you need to look at what's happening on the far-right. If you look at polls, for example, the most popular party in the country right now is the National Rally. That's the poll party led by Marine Le Pen. It is on the far-right. It is based primarily on a sentiment of anti-immigration, and it answers to some of the questions that your caller raised. That's to say this feeling, which is only partly true, but it does have some sense that you can come to France, and benefit from some of the welfare provisions, even though you haven't yet worked.

Now, France would say that that is part of its value system, that it is for those who have a legal right to be in France, that you are entitled, therefore, to a degree of welfare provision, regardless of whether you've worked. I think that the concern is mostly about illegal immigration, and there again, there are some provisions, some of them are being tightened up, and it is a concern that is definitely an issue, and has been behind the rise of the far-right, and of Marine Le Pen's party.

It's not unique to France. I mean, I would hasten to add that in the UK it's also an issue. Immigration is behind the government under Giorgia Meloni in Italy, so AfD in Germany. There are lots of countries in Europe that have very similar concerns about immigration, and it has been behind the rise of far-right parties almost across the continent.

Brian Lehrer: How much do you think in France's case that it's really about the pure economic issue of some immigrants taking advantage of France's generous welfare state, perhaps, without working, and that would deplete resources for everybody else when the economy is challenged there, as opposed to they don't want demographic change?

Sophie Pedder: I think it's a combination of the two, and you can hear it in the discourse of the far-right. When Marine Le Pen talks, she uses a lot of the language that without mentioning things like the Great Replacement Theory, you can hear echoes of that, this idea that that a native population is going to be replaced by an immigrant population.

That is actually a theory that was first developed in France, and by a French thinker, but it's something that you hear implicit in her discourse, if not spelt out quite like that, so there are identity issues behind all of this. It's not just an economic concern. It's a combination of the two, and I think it goes a long way to explain why she is doing so well in the polls at the moment.

Brian Lehrer: One listener writes. "A difference is, I think it needs to be said," writes this listener, "that we Americans are not used to being immersed into a protest culture." You did remind us that French people are more used to doing that. Another listener writes a question, "Are the protesters calling for wealth taxes? Like in the US, France's inequality is at a 30-year high. It's important to talk about public debt in relation to the consolidation of wealth at the very top." What would you say in response to that listener?

Sophie Pedder: Well, I would say, first of all, France has a wealth tax, it has a mansion tax, so it does try to address the problem of inequality. It also-- If you look at the question of inequality, it has not increased broadly just for the-- Looking at the top 1%, so we're talking about really the super-rich. Now, there's a big question right now as to whether or not that sense of injustice about the top 1% having had its fortune really having grown very fast in recent years, that there is a possibility that there will be some kind of a new tax to address that issue, because it's felt very strongly by the French.

I think again, you need to put all that in the context of a country that does a, a huge amount to reduce inequality through this very generous welfare system, so it is, what we're talking about is, it's not a broadly unequal society. It's the very top 1% of the population that has done so spectacularly well in recent years.

Brian Lehrer: It's interesting. I guess it's a conversation that we could be having in this country. I don't know that we are very much, if the mass of the population, if the floor is high, like you're saying, basically it is in France with all the benefits, then is their cause for much of a protest against those who are getting very wealthy in business? You're saying France, I guess, I hear you saying France is an example where that protest is muted, because the bottom isn't as shaky as it is here. Would that be accurate?

Sophie Pedder: I think, I would say that's partly what I'm saying, but I think it's really about what's happened in recent years for those who've seen at the very, very top of the 1%, as I said, who's seen their fortunes grown so spectacularly, thanks to stock market gains on the whole. It's the sense that there's an unfair-- Something unfair about that, and that symbolically, the government has to address that in some way, even though at the bottom of the ladder, the French system does protect people from poverty in almost better than any other-- Not any other country in Europe, but certainly than many other countries in Europe.

Brian Lehrer: I have a final question, and again, it's somewhat by way of comparison to what's going on in this country right now. I want to get your take on that deployment of 80,000 officers is the number I've seen to quell the new protests there since, of course, President Trump here is deploying National Guard troops to cities in the United States, and it's a huge controversy.

Sophie Pedder: Yes, I don't think it's quite the same. I mean, it's not unusual for France to put a lot of officers on the streets when there are protests planned, it's because of what happened with the Yellow Vest, and also previous decades, if not centuries, going back to France's history of revolution. The French have a policing policy which is quite tight, and they do not want to take any risks with the spillover from these events.

This is perfectly normal policing practice, and they're not all 80,000 in one city. This is across the country, so it did on that day feel as if there was a quite solid police presence, but it's not an unusual way to deploy French law enforcement officers when there is that kind of a protest that's been planned.

Brian Lehrer: You Know what? I'm going to extend for just a minute, because it looks like we're getting a call from somebody in France at the moment, and it's Nan in France. You're on WNYC. Do I have it right? You're there right now, Nan, listening to the show?

Nan: Yes. Hi. I'm a New Yorker who lives in rural France, in south of France, near Spain. I'm delighted to talk to you again, Brian, after many years of loving your show. I wanted to just mention that, because of the protests on Wednesday, and also the Yellow Vest movement, largely, my feeling is that it's economic. The feeling that the billionaires in France don't pay enough tax. Macron is in the pocket of big industry, and ordinary people here are frustrated and angry, and they want to make their voices heard. It's really about that from the ground. That's what I'm seeing.

Brian Lehrer: Nan, thank you very much, Sophie, you want to second that, or refute it? Since you mentioned Macron, if he were to fall, it's a different system than here. They've been losing all these prime ministers, but they still have their president. If he were to fall, do you think the far-right would rise?

Sophie Pedder: I mean, in answer to your caller, I think that's what I was trying to say about by referring to the 1%. I mean these are the France's billionaires, and there is a sense of resentment towards them, so I think that the government does have to do something to address that concern, if it's going to try and quell the anger, that I would agree with your caller.

In terms of the president, I mean the constitution is quite clear. The president has a second five-year term to run 2027. President Macron is unpopular, there's no doubt about that, but he's also legitimately entitled to stay, and the runner, and to the end of his term, so I think it's quite clear that's what he wants to do, that's what he intends to do.

What we're looking at, unless he dissolves parliament, and calls fresh elections for the parliament, not for the president, then the far-right, and the prospect of them is 2027, not in the immediate weeks or months.

Brian Lehrer: If we see him as a centrist, tell me if you think that's accurate. Would the next election in 2027 more likely pit somebody from the further left against somebody from the further right, and the center wouldn't hold?

Sophie Pedder: That is the center's worst nightmare, and if you talk to people which I do all the time from the center, as well as the extremes, that is what they are most worried about is that the finals-- The second round choice would be between the far-left and the far-right. There are a lot of politicians working very hard to make sure that that isn't the choice, but it is a difficult one, and the center is not popular, and it's not an easy message, a centrist message to get across in an era of quite polarized politics, so they're going to have to get their act together fast between now and 2027, if they're going to make sure that isn't the choice.

Brian Lehrer: Sophie Pedder, Paris Bureau Chief at The Economist, thanks so much for coming on, as you head into your weekend there since you're what, five hours ahead of New York and explaining-- Is it six? Explaining all of this to us. Thank you very much.

Sophie Pedder: You're very welcome. Very welcome. Thanks very much for inviting me. It's a pleasure.

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