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Tiffany Hansen: It's The Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC. I'm Tiffany Hansen, host here in the WNYC newsroom, filling in for Brian. Coming up on today's show, WNYC's lead Eric Adams reporter, Elizabeth Kim, will be here as she always is on Wednesdays to report on the mayor's weekly press conference. The only one where he takes questions from reporters on any topic.

Plus, listeners will be talking about the major elections happening around the world. We'll want to hear from anybody with ties to India, Mexico, South Africa, other countries holding elections. That's coming up in just about an hour. We'll wrap up today's show with a conversation about the growing pains that are coming with the soaring popularity of the WNBA. Stay with us for that.

First, yesterday was a busy day for President Biden. He issued an executive order on immigration meant to limit the number of weekly border crossings. Also, his son Hunter appeared in court in Delaware for opening statements in a trial stemming from gun-related charges. Looming for the president is also the fate of a proposed permanent ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas that would secure the release of the remaining Israeli hostages being held by Hamas.

Congressional leaders have invited Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to address a joint session of Congress. That's facing a ton of blowback from Democrats and is complicated politically for the president, to say the least. Politically-speaking, the war and immigration are big issues for potential Biden supporters come November. The ramifications of his son's legal issues could reach far beyond the courtroom into the ballot box as well.

With us to talk about these issues and how President Biden is handling them and how they could affect his political future is Jonathan Lemire, White House bureau chief for Politico. Jonathan is also the host of Way Too Early on MSNBC and the author of The Big Lie: Election Chaos, Political Opportunism, and the State of American Politics After 2020. Hi, Jonathan. Welcome back to WNYC.

Jonathan Lemire: Hi, I'm always happy to be here. Good morning.

Tiffany Hansen: The executive action taken by President Biden yesterday, the accompanying rule from the DOJ and Homeland Security, let's start there. That executive order wasn't a surprise. For folks who haven't heard about the specifics of it, I wouldn't say it's necessarily complicated, but it is a little complex to understand, so fill us in if you can.

Jonathan Lemire: Sure thing. First, let's talk about the political backdrop here. The situation at the southern border is one that has been shadowing this White House for quite come time as we barrel into the election this November. White House officials have relayed to me privately. They recognized that early on that they were slow to react in 2021-2022 to what was happening at the southern border.

Certainly, we've heard from blue state governors and mayors, big city, to suggest that, "Look, the migrant, this is an issue. We need to address this." We should also note, of course, that just a few months ago, there was a bipartisan bill largely drafted by Republicans. That would've put the toughest border security measures in place in quite some time. Republicans themselves killed it because Donald Trump wanted to preserve the matter as an election year issue.

President Biden yesterday signed this executive action, saying that he wished Congress would step up. Short of that, he had to take place. Basically, the order will be in effect from the seven-day average of daily border crossings exceeds 2,500 between ports of entry, meaning that will go into effect immediately. It is also, of course, for tightening asylum regulations as well.

Tiffany Hansen: There's all of these specific points about it. The DHS secretary can reopen the crossing after they've fallen below like 1,500 for seven consecutive days. Then that determination can then allow the border to reopen 14 days later, so it does get a little bit into the weeds there. I'm wondering also just specifically about the order and the resulting rules if there are any exceptions for people experiencing medical emergencies or children and things like that.

Jonathan Lemire: Yes, there are some of those exceptions. The President also very quick to note that unlike some of the Trump-era policies, families would not be separated. The parents are not separated from their children on the way in. We should note though that this is an order that has, well, frankly, proven divisive among both Republicans and Democrats. Republicans, as you might expect, hitting President Biden, saying this order simply does not go far enough.

This has not addressed the crisis at the border. We heard that from former President Trump and a number of other congressional GOP leaders. Also, there's some unhappiness from Democrats. Progressives in particular, who say that, "This is not what we signed up for. America should be more welcoming." The reality here is the polls suggests that a lot of Americans and general election voters do feel like something had to be done with the border, so the President, his hand was somewhat forced.

Tiffany Hansen: I want to get to that congressional reaction here in a little bit, but I want to invite our listeners in. We're going to focus specifically on the political implications of President Biden's actions here on immigration specifically. Jonathan and I also talking about the Israel-Hamas war as we head into the election. How are his actions going to sway

voters? Are you following the Hunter Biden case? Listeners, we'd love to hear from you. You can call us or you can text us at 212-433-9692, 212-433-WNYC.

Jonathan, we mentioned here some of the Trump-era policies. Trump, of course, talked a lot of about his big, beautiful wall. We have the travel ban that folks will remember. There were some initial comparisons between this action that Biden took and many, many actions that President Trump took. I'm just wondering if that was a knee-jerk reaction or if there actually is some validity to that comparison.

Jonathan Lemire: There are some similarities. No, this not of the same scope as to what President Trump attempted to put in place while he was in office or what he says he will do were he to be returned to the White House. He and his allies have unveiled sweeping plans for mass deportations, for detention camps, from some of the harshest immigration policy that the nation has perhaps ever seen, at least not in generations. There is still a stark choice here.

Again, this is a moment where President Biden and his team felt like they just couldn't wait any longer. They're going to give the public voice to the idea that Congress should step forth. Every lawmaker and congressional source that I have spoken to and my colleagues have spoken to in recent days say there's simply no appetite for our sweeping immigration overhaul as much as it is needed. It's not going to happen now on Congress, particularly heading into the last few months before an election, that anything and any note will have to wait till January or beyond.

Tiffany Hansen: Listeners, our guest is Politico's White House bureau chief, Jonathan Lemire. We're talking with Jonathan right now about President Biden's executive action taken yesterday around immigration. We have a few other topics to get to. Before that, I want to just play us a cut here from President Biden, who was speaking yesterday. He was flanked by two screens that said, "Securing our border." In attendance with him was Governor Hochul, New York's governor, of course. Let's just take a listen to something Biden said that illustrates a little bit of how he's positioning himself against President Trump at this point.

President Joe Biden: I will never demonize immigrants. I'll never refer to immigrants as to poisoning the blood of a country. Further, I'll never separate children from their families at the border.

Tiffany Hansen: Of course, Jonathan, he is referencing President Trump in those remarks. I have to imagine. It's a bit hard for him to straddle a harder immigration stance and still differentiate himself from Republican rhetoric and policy on the border and immigration. I'm just curious how you see him straddling that line.

Jonathan Lemire: It is tricky politics for the President. Democrats have expressed a lot of hope a few months ago, what it was, Republicans at the behest of Donald Trump who killed that bipartisan bill. Democrats thought to themselves, "Well, this is a moment where we can simply blame them," saying, "Look, we're trying to be tough on the border. We're trying to deliver to the American people what polling suggests they want."

They, meaning the GOP, are in the way. We've had President Biden head to the border and make a similar statement. Other senior lawmakers have done as well. Polls suggest, at least for now, that really hasn't sunk in, that this is still not a great issue for Democrats. It's not a great issue for President Biden, that the years' worth of Republican rhetoric about the border is still carrying the day.

Now, we are still five months from the election. Certainly, this is going to come up in the two debates between Biden and Trump. At the very least, as one senior White House aide put it to me in the last 72 or so hours, even if this can't be a winning issue for the President in November, they at least want to try to nullify it, to try to soften the impact, and negate the advantage that Trump and Republicans may have.

Tiffany Hanssen: Clarify what you mean when you say not a great issue for the presidents and his supporters.

Jonathan Lemire: Well, you're seeing the divide in the Democratic Party right now. There's not a lot of unanimity in terms of what they want. In terms of talking about polling and talking to strategists, at least right now, poll after poll suggests and the battleground states are going to decide this election that voters favor Republicans when it comes to the issue of immigration. As noted, there's time for that to change, but that's where things stand now.

Tiffany Hanssen: Right, because the majority of Americans, correct me if I'm wrong, do feel that this is a huge issue.

Jonathan Lemire: Yes, it has become one. Certainly, the scenes of the last year or so, not just the numbers at the border itself, but some of the scenes we're seeing in big cities across the country as they grapple with the migrant influx and struggle with having the resources needed. Some of President Biden's top allies, including Mayor Adams in New York and Governor Hochul at New York State, have been critical. Same with Governor Pritzker of Illinois, who's hosting the DNC in two months has been sharply critical of how the administration was not doing enough, they believe, to tackle the issue.

Tiffany Hanssen: Well, yes, the Pew numbers that I'm looking at say 18% of respondents say the US government is doing a good job. That's not great. I'm wondering specifically how these numbers in the polling that you're talking about affected the President's timing of this executive action. There's a cynic in me that says this is all timed for election purposes and polling not looking great like I just mentioned. Help feed that cynic in me a little bit maybe.

Jonathan Lemire: There's nothing cynical about it. That's reality. This is happening because it's five months to the election. Again, I think the White House support it. It was a good faith effort for a bipartisan deal. For a while, it seemed like, at least some, not all, but some Republicans were on board, including Senator Lankford of Oklahoma, one of the co-authors of the bill, who's one of the most conservative Republicans in the Senate, hailing from arguably the deepest red state in the country.

There was momentum behind that bill until Donald Trump said, "No, kill this," said it to Speaker Johnson, said it to some of his allies in the Senate, saying, "I want this to be a problem for President Biden. I want to be able to run on this in November. Don't let this legislation pass." They killed it. It's still a major issue. Polls suggest it's hurting President Biden, so he had to step up and do something.

Tiffany Hanssen: Well, at least he was forthright about his intentions in killing that legislation. At least we know where the thinking is on that. It's appearing that President Biden's executive action is an appeal to the voters who were disaffected by that decision to kill that legislation or attempt to kill it. They did kill it. I'm wondering, is it just a vote grab for those disaffected voters at this point?

Jonathan Lemire: Well, something has to be done. I think that there is an issue that the border had to be-- Most people believe the border had to be tightened in some way. I think that President Biden needed to show some sort of action even if it is more limited than what Congress could do because he, fairly or not, was taking most of the blame. I do hope, as a final note, that Biden's reelection team and Democrats will make the pitch to voters, and they hope they listen, saying, "Look, President Biden stepped up and did something. The Republicans are the ones who got in the way. They're the ones who are prolonging the problem for pure political purposes." They hope voters will see that.

Tiffany Hanssen: We've been talking about moderate voters, Republican voters, progressives, and their reaction to this executive order. We have a text here, Jonathan, that says, "Biden is trying to get Nikki Haley voters. He doesn't want progressives. He's willing to lose us," meaning progressives, I guess, "in order to gain moderate support. He lost my vote." Would you characterize that as accurate? In other words, with this, is he going after moderates at the expense of the support of progressives? Then I have a follow-up for that, which is, of course, "Wow, how does not courting that progressive vote hurt him in this way?"

Jonathan Lemire: Well, no one attached to the campaign would flat-out admit they're sacrificing anything, but there are calculations being made here. Not just issues like immigration, but also how the President is, shall we say, approaching the war in Gaza, and other times domestically where he has made decisions time and again, where sometimes progressives, those on the left, have been disappointed.

That is in part by calculation that the Biden senior advisors have made that those leftists, the progressives, the liberal members of the party don't have anywhere to go, that Joe Biden was never necessarily their favorite candidate, but they voted for him in 2020 because he could beat Donald Trump. They're making the calculation that they will again. Maybe grumbling while they do it, but they will come home to vote for President Biden.

Therefore, he needs to appeal to the swath of voters in the middle who tend to decide elections, the voters he did win in 2020. Polling suggests he's doing pretty well with now too because here is the dilemma with this calculation they've made. Right now, he is hemorrhaging support on the left who are not going to vote for Donald Trump, but either are going to vote for a third-party candidate or just stay home and not vote at all.

That's what we're seeing in terms of the matchups with Biden and Trump is that Biden has a base problem. He's winning a lot of those moderate voters who don't want to go back to Trump, but he's losing support, at least for now, among voters of color and progressives. The hope is that even if they end up holding their nose while they do it, they'll come home in November.

Tiffany Hanssen: That's the hope. At least right now, if you could project the reality of that, how would you-- do you think that's--

Jonathan Lemire: If the election were today, I think he'd have a real problem among members of his base, but the election is not today. That's what his aides keep saying. They believe that for particularly some of these voters, the young voters, voters of color who are disenchanted with President Biden, they point to polls, the Biden team does, internal polls. Still, even though here we are in early June, a lot of Americans simply do not believe that the election is going to be Biden versus Trump, that they don't believe it's going to be a rematch.

They think, "Oh, Trump. He'll be in jail," or "Oh, Biden, he's too old. He can't--" They still think that something will change. Nothing's going to change. This is the matchup we're going to have in November. The Biden team believes that once that sinks in and once these voters realize and come to grips with the idea that Donald Trump could be president again that they won't stay home, that they will vote for President Biden even if it's a lesser of two evils.

That is, as a final thought on this, there's been a lot of polling in recent weeks towards the voters who disliked both men. Those are the ones who are probably going to decide this election. In 2016, voters who disliked both Trump and Hillary Clinton broke for Trump. In 2020, voters who disliked both Biden and Trump broke for Biden. The Biden team's bet is this time around and maybe it'll take the debates, maybe it'll take the conventions, but at some point, it will sink in. "Oh, boy. Donald Trump's the alternative? Therefore, we got to vote for Joe Biden."

Tiffany Hanssen: Jonathan, we have a text. "I feel like the Biden administration cares far more about immigrants and minorities than they do about me as an American citizen. This really bothers me because I've been a Democratic voter my entire adult life now. I feel like the party that I have supported is going out of their way to marginalize me in favor of people of color and immigrants." I want to bring a listener into the conversation with us here too, Jonathan. Alec in the Bronx. Good morning, Alec.

Alec: Good morning.

Tiffany Hanssen: Yes, you had a question for Jonathan?

Alec: Well, I actually agree quite a bit with what Jonathan has been saying. I think Biden just needs to be more aggressive and expressive in saying what's really out there. The fact that the Republicans have been stalling and Congress in general has been doing this for decades instead of taking care of the migrant issue right now. Also, as far as the young people go, I believe that climate change needs to be constantly brought into the forefront because that's a really big issue from their line. Also, by the way, I don't believe in polls. Polls have been constantly wrong, especially in recent years. I don't know. I don't know what they're doing, I suspect.

Tiffany Hanssen: Alec, thanks for the call. Thinking about this divide among moderates, progressives in Congress specifically, I'm curious, Jonathan, if we're talking about the Republican-Democrat response to this, how you think Republicans are going to go out into the field this election season and spin their dislike of this action. We already heard Senator Roger Marshall, Kansas Republican, saying, "Too little too late," which is essentially the same thing that Trump said. For a Republican base who's been clamoring for action on the border, this is at least something. How do you deny that it is at least something?

Jonathan Lemire: Oh, they'll try anyway, at least most of them will. It may not be a good-faith effort. I think you hit on it. Right now, the talking point's already clearly emerged, too little too late. They'll blame President Biden for the situation. They'll say that, "You let things get so bad. Now, you're trying to deal with it. Look, the damage is already done. We need someone like Donald Trump to step into office with a Republican Congress in order to put things right." They're going to try to preserve this argument.

I'm sure there are some Republicans who will see through that, who recognize that, "Wait a minute. We could have addressed this a few months ago in a bipartisan fashion and it was my own party that killed it," but that doesn't necessarily mean it's going to sway their votes. I do think we can never overestimate just how good Republicans have been at demonizing immigration. Look, there are legitimate concerns, there are, about the issue that people have. As you played in that clip from President Biden a minute ago, Trump and his allies have used the rhetoric that have become incendiary and for many Americans scary about immigration. That is impacting a lot of votes.

Tiffany Hansen: Tell us what we heard from the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. Did we hear from them yesterday?

Jonathan Lemire: Some have said, "Wait and see." Some have said, "We're not thrilled with this," but I think there is a recognition, I will say, from most Democrats that something had to be done, that even if this was not legislation that they themselves would want to offer, they recognize it's an election year. I was just speaking, in fact, to a former senior White House official this morning, still very plugged in, in matters in the West Wing, who was surveying the Democratic landscape and does believe that at the end of the day, most Democrats, except for those on the far left from deep blue districts where they're safe and they can say whatever they want, but most will come on board because they recognize the stakes of this election are so high. Perfect is the enemy of the good, if you will. They realize that even this is good enough for now.

Tiffany Hansen: We did hear from House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries yesterday, of course, Democrat from New York, saying, "It's important that President Biden is planning to take decisive action, given the fact that extreme MAGA Republicans have decided to try to weaponize the issue of the challenges at the border." We've talked about that. What I'm wondering, Jonathan, is how much voters are really going to remember that.

Jonathan Lemire: That's a good question because we live in a world right now where voters' attention spans seem very small and fleeting. In fact, on a different matter, Democrats are grappling with, how do we handle Trump's criminal conviction? How much do we talk about it? How much do we lean in? Even if we go for it now, will it still resonate five months from now? I've lost count of the number of Democrats who say they wish this verdict had come down in October rather than May or that one of Trump's other trials could come to fruition before voters go to the polls.

I guess there's an outside shot of the federal January 6th case, but it seems unlikely. It is hard to know what will resonate in, A, this media ecosystem where it's not like it used to be where stories will be driven by the broadcast news, the big newspapers, even the cable networks. People now get most of their information from their phones. Also, when it's a race between two men that voters already know so well and there aren't really any surprises when it comes to the individuals. Therefore, this might be a race that comes down to outside events. It's simply impossible to predict what could happen between now and November.

Tiffany Hansen: Well, one of those outside events that's having real effect both politically for both men and also on the election itself is, of course, the war between Israel and Hamas. We're going to get to that in a second. Before we leave the executive order on immigration, Jonathan, I want to take one more caller, Lawrence in Brooklyn Heights. Hi, Lawrence. Good morning.

Lawrence: Hey. Hey, hi. Thanks again for listening to me ranting. Listen, you read a comment on the air from someone who said, "I feel like President Biden cares more about immigrants and minority than American citizens." That is an overtly racist comment. There's an no ambiguity about that whatsoever. None, period, end of story. If Democrats and Biden have to win by pandering to that, I'd rather lose.

Let the MAGA people win. Let America see where that gets us in a few years and progressives will come out of that stronger because then we'll know. People will feel it. If we pander to that, the victory isn't worth winning. You can see Biden's immigration thing in that context if you want to. I'm not sure I do to be fair to President Biden, but you could. When in our own party, there is that kind of overt racism that what they think should be part of policymaking, I'm not sure I want to be part of that party anymore.

Tiffany Hansen: Lawrence, thanks so much. Jonathan, we've been getting a lot of response to that text. People saying that doesn't represent their view, doesn't represent Democrats' view. Is that true?

Jonathan Lemire: I agree with that caller just there. I had the same thought when the text came in. It did seem to be racist language, if not outright racist in itself. I do think that that's not something that any Democrat would agree with. Even those who say, "The stakes are so high. Joe Biden's not a perfect candidate, but we simply can't let Donald Trump win," I don't think many would be okay with embracing any racist rhetoric in order to do so.

Tiffany Hansen: Jonathan, one last text. "Democrats have never been good at messaging. All over the map, in opinions, Republicans march in lockstep, speak in one voice (Trump here for good or bad). Too many Americans apparently can't see past this. One of the things that I'm curious about is President Biden's messaging around the war between Israel and Hamas going forward. There is a ceasefire proposal on the table at this point." Just catch us up a little bit on that if you can.

Jonathan Lemire: Sure. President Biden, late last week, Friday, I believe, announced this ceasefire proposal, deemed to be Israeli proposal, multiple phases that would lead though, eventually, to the remaining hostages being released in stages. That would also wind down the conflict. Eventually, Israeli military would leave Gaza and a new Hamas-free government will be put in place. There was a lot vague still. A lot of details needed to be worked out, but that was the basic framework.

There was optimism in the President's voice as he announced it saying, "Israel is on board. We've been waiting for Hamas." Since then, however, Prime Minister Netanyahu has distanced himself from the agreement. We should keep in mind his own domestic political situation. He is someone who, before the October 7th attacks, was barely hanging on to power and under criminal investigation. Since then, he's received a lot of blame at home for allowing the attacks.

That said, he's also received support saying, "Look, Israeli people want to eradicate these Hamas terrorists who committed these atrocities." He's also dealing with, right now, though, members of his coalition, some far-right members of his coalition who have said, "No way. We're not signing up for a ceasefire short of anything of Hamas being eradicated." Now, first of all, eradicating a terrorist organization that is fluid and dynamic is very difficult to do. We've already seen Hamas come back into regions that Israel had cleared in Gaza. Netanyahu is now in a bit of a bind, it seems, where if he were to forge forward with this deal, his governing coalition could fall apart and he might lose power.

That said, there is immense pressure from the United States and other allies to take this deal, at least a form thereof, in order to bring the conflict to a halt. Even temporarily, even if this isn't going to be the end of the war, even a legitimate ceasefire, which would lead to some hostages being released and to improve the dire humanitarian conditions in Gaza will be welcomed by most. The ball right now seems to be in Netanyahu's court as to what to do next.

Tiffany Hansen: I do want to get to a little speculation about what happens if it takes hold and what happens if it doesn't, at least politically for President Biden. I'm curious if you think voters really are paying attention to what's happening with Prime Minister Netanyahu in his own country and how that might affect what the perception is here in terms of Biden's relationship with him. Therefore, how are voters really equating what is happening with Netanyahu and Netanyahu himself with President Biden? In other words, are they being lumped together in voters' minds if we know?

Jonathan Lemire: I think for some, it's a complicated answer because polls do suggest that for most Americans, the war in Gaza, though it's dominated the headlines for months now, isn't a major issue. Domestic ones, inflation, abortion, the like are playing much more at the top of mind for voters as we head towards November. For a segment of the population, obviously, they care very passionately about this.

We saw the protests that swept college campuses a few weeks ago. Certainly, there are many in the United States who are deeply unhappy with the situation in Gaza. President Biden himself has condemned some of the Israeli war effort thinking they've gone too far. We heard from him in a Time magazine interview released this week, thinking that Prime Minister Netanyahu was even prolonging the war for his political purposes.

This is a very tough one for the President because, to some, he appears weak because he's not able to control Netanyahu. Of course, there's no real mechanism for him to do that, but that's still the perception. Then secondly, rewinding to our conversation a few minutes ago about his problems with the base and young voters are progressives, the war on Gaza is very important to some of them.

That is something that is hurting him potentially at the ballot box. We should also mention, of course, Arab-American voters, Muslim-American voters are registering real disapproval with Biden, thinking he's too aligned with Israel. In a state like Michigan, one of the very top battleground states on the map that has a significant Arab-American population, that could really hurt him in November.

Tiffany Hansen: Well, we talked about the immigration issue and the executive order yesterday and the potential political ramifications for progressives who may or may not support President Biden. If this ceasefire succeeds, will he, President Biden, actually regain some ground or is it too little too late with progressives?

Jonathan Lemire: It is hard to know. Right now, there's a lot of progressive unhappiness with President Biden on a number of issues. You mentioned Gaza. You mentioned some of the immigration action. We could put student loans in there too, which most advisors feel like is unfair because President Biden has done all he can to fulfill that campaign promise. He's been blocked by the courts, but it's been a Democratic messaging issue where he's still being blamed for a lot of this. I think right now, there are progressives who are very unhappy. Again, we won't know until November because the Biden campaign's bet is that they'll come home. As unhappy as they may be on a number of issues, they'll still make the decision.

Look, we may not love President Biden, but he's still a better alternative than going back to Donald Trump, who will be no friend to them on any of those issues, who will make no efforts on student loan, who will have a far more draconian immigration policy, and who has said that he will give Israel whatever it needs to wipe out most of Gaza. If those are the issues that progressives care about, the Biden team thinking holds that they will recognize that even if it's the question of lesser of two evils, they'll come home to President Biden. If they don't vote at all or if they decide to cast a ballot for a Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., or Jill Stein, whoever it is, well, that only benefits Donald Trump.

Tiffany Hansen: Jonathan, let's bring a listener into this conversation who might have something else to say about that. Peter in Great Neck. Hi, Peter.

Peter: Hi. Thank you for taking my call. I've been a registered Democrat. Occasionally, I switched parties to register or vote against somebody. I became a Republican in New York just to vote against Donald Trump, so that gives you some ideas to where I'm coming from. This election, this idea that Democrats will come home, I really doubt it for a lot of people because I'm probably one of those people that you would classify that way.

I'm going to be voting for the libertarian candidate, at least at this point in June of 2024, at this point as a protest vote. I actually like the fact that as a strong gay man, he, I think, represents well. He's got a streak of foreign policy, which is try to get us out of unnecessary wars. There are other things to him which I like, which happens to be fiscally responsible. I really doubt the idea Democrats will all come home.

Tiffany Hansen: Peter, thanks for the call. Jonathan, I just wonder if calls like that, comments like that, polling like that doesn't keep the Biden campaign up at night.

Jonathan Lemire: It certainly does. Third-party candidates have certainly, polls suggest, hurt Biden more than Trump. Although RFK, Jr., seems to take away from both. It depends on the survey who he hurts more. Traditionally, in recent American politics, third-party candidates are far worse for the Democrat. Obviously, Al Gore in 2000. In part, his defeat was blamed because of Ralph Nader.

Hillary Clinton in 2016, Jill Stein was a third-party candidate that year. She took enough votes away from her that cost her the battleground states that would've given her the White House. We have seen Trump on the attack against RFK, Jr. There's certainly some worry there. I think it's greater among Democrats. I think also Democrats, traditionally, you'll hold their candidates to a higher standard.

The old cliché is Democrats like to fall in love with their presidential nominee. Republicans just want to win. I'm paraphrasing, but that's largely what it is. I think we're seeing that again now. Look, there's a percentage of Republicans who can't stand Donald Trump, who are not going to vote for him or either going to stay home, or maybe even cross the aisle and vote for President Biden.

Right now, largely, the Republican base is with Trump. The Democratic base, less so. That could change between now and November. There's a lot of time for that to change. Right now, that's the issue. Biden's doing fine with swing voters and moderates, those independents. He's not doing well with some Democrats. If those Democrats or like the caller just said, if they choose to stay home or cast their ballot elsewhere, that's only going to increase the likelihood that Trump wins.

Tiffany Hansen: Well, it certainly is very clear that former President Trump knows how to fire up his base. I'm wondering if you were able to advise the Biden campaign about firing up the base, where would you suggest they point their laser?

Jonathan Lemire: Well, I'm not in the business of giving campaign counsel, but I think what we can say is, first of all, you're right about Trump. He's using the criminal conviction last week to fire up his base further. Although as a side note, there is some polling that suggests a slight movement towards Biden in the wake of the conviction. Not a lot, but a couple of points among those independent swing voters who simply don't want a convicted felon in an office and in a race that's going to be very close in November. A couple of points might make a huge difference.

What I can tell you about what the Biden team hopes between now and November to bring the base home, it's a few things. First of all, hammering the message that Trump indeed has been convicted of a crime, having this first debate now just three, three-plus, three-four weeks off in which, for many Americans, it'll be their first time, frankly, seeing Trump and listening to Trump since he left office.

The Biden team believes they'll be reminded of just how incendiary his rhetoric is and how radical his proposals are that they hope that the war in Gaza will wind down between now and November. There'll be less anger about the situation in Palestinian civilians. Then most of all, and this is something that we cannot leave out, every election since the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade has been impacted by abortion rights. Democrats have come out on the winning side of that issue repeatedly.

Abortion rights are going to be on the ballot in a number of key battleground states this fall. Also, look for that to be one of President Biden's closing arguments as well as the need to defend democracy, the need to continue to help the nation's economic comeback. Abortion rights is going to be right there near the top. For so many Americans, and that includes suburban women who traditionally vote Republican, that's going to be the issue they decide, "I'm going to cast my ballot there." Most Democrats feel very confident.

Tiffany Hansen: Polling supports that, right?

Jonathan Lemire: No question. Yes, polling supports that.

Tiffany Hansen: Before I let you go, you mentioned how important it would be for Democrats strategically to really hammer home former President Trump's legal troubles, which are not over. I want to just bring up. There were opening statements made yesterday in the Hunter Biden trial. Hunter Biden prosecution alleges was addicted to drugs at the time he bought a handgun from a Delaware gun shop in 2018.

My question is really this though. Hunter Biden and this particular trial, there were other legal issues surrounding Hunter Biden, but I'm just wondering how much this is going to play for swing voters specifically. Maybe even if this trial is ongoing, the closer we get to the election.

Jonathan Lemire: It likely won't be. Most analysts believe this trial's going to wrap up in just a week or two, though Hunter Biden does have another trial in California on tax charges that is set to begin in September. Polling suggests and, truthfully, leaders in both parties believe the Hunter Biden case is not going to matter too much politically. The Republicans have tried to make Hunter Biden a story for years.

He was, in many ways, their closing argument in 2020. It didn't resonate with voters. Joe Biden won anyway. Republicans have tried to use Hunter Biden in the centerpiece of congressional hearings and even an impeachment effort of President Biden. All of that has fallen apart as well. We have seen a lot of Americans actually have a lot of sympathy for the Bidens because their own lives have been touched by addiction.

Polls suggest, frankly, Americans just don't really think this matters. They know that Hunter Biden is a private citizen. He's not running for president. It's not like Donald Trump, who he himself was convicted last week. This is a different personal family matter. Advisors I talked to and the White House and the Biden campaign, they don't think this will be a political issue at all, but they are concerned about the personal toll on President Biden. President Biden, the father, whose life has been touched by a lot of tragedy.

The car accident that killed his first wife and daughter. His other son, Beau, died of brain cancer nine years ago. Now, Hunter Biden has battled, by his own admission, addiction for a long time, though sober now. I'm told that President Biden, even as he's overseas right now in France for the D-Day commemorations in the days ahead, he's deeply worried about Hunter Biden, touching base with him daily, touching base with other relatives. That's where most people feel like this could have an impact, not on the polls but on Joe Biden, the person.

Tiffany Hansen: Last quick question. We do have a debate coming up June 27th between the former president and the President. We've touched on a lot, immigration, the Israel-Hamas War. You mentioned abortion, some of the big issues. Is there anything we haven't touched on that you think will be during the debate?

Jonathan Lemire: I think President Biden will talk about the need to defend democracy and I think we'll hear about January 6th, which is something that, every so often, the current president uses as a major set piece. I think we'll hear from it a little bit this week even, more on the need to defend democracy abroad by also preserving it at home. He won't use Donald Trump's name while he's in France commemorating D-Day, but Trump will shadow the event.

I think the debate, that will be significant. Debates matter sometimes, not always. This one, I think, will in part because it's so early. I think it'll be the first moment for a lot of Americans that they start paying attention. They recognize, "Wait, this choice is Biden versus Trump." I think that in a race that's been pretty static for months, that's a pivot point where things may change.

Tiffany Hansen: Jonathan Lemire, Politico's White House bureau chief, also the host of MSNBC's Way Too Early, and the author of a book, The Big Lie: Election Chaos, Political Opportunism, and the State of American Politics After 2020. Jonathan, thanks for your time today.

Jonathan Lemire: Thanks so much.

 

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