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Brian Lehrer: It's The Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC. Good morning, everyone. Coming up later this hour, our usual Wednesday visit from our political reporter Elizabeth Kim on the New York City mayoral race. Among our topics today, the changing face of the crime and public safety issue in this campaign, with Andrew Cuomo proposing new ways to retain police officers, Eric Adams having some good crime stats to boast about, and Zohran Mamdani getting the endorsement of a Police Officers Association. We'll play clips of each.

Also, Democrats who aren't endorsing their party's nominee, but not endorsing anyone else either, what it means for the race, and the party nationally? That's coming up. First, Congress and other national politics. Members of the House of Representatives are in summer recess, an extended recess, as you'll recall, because Speaker Mike Johnson is helping President Trump avoid Jeffrey Epstein related hearings, at least for now, but summer recess means town hall meetings which have been fraught this year for Republicans, especially after the one big Medicaid cutting budget and policy bill.

For example, on Monday, the Congressman Mike Flood of Nebraska's 1st District faced a raucous crowd of more than 700 constituents at a town hall hosted by Nebraska Public Media in the state's capital. In this one-minute clip, Flood speaks, audience members react.

Congressman Mike Flood: If we didn't pass the Big Beautiful Bill, it would have been a $1,600 tax increase to every Nebraska family.

[crowd booing]

Congressman Mike Flood: That is a true middle class tax cut. Next slide, please. These are the other important parts of the One Big Beautiful Bill. Next slide, please.

[crowd chanting]

Congressman Mike Flood: No taxes on overtime. We've had this conversation before, as I recall, and we shared this in Columbus. If we adopted the Democrats' plan to tax the rich, if we adopted the Democrats plan in the last Congress to tax the rich, it would generate $50 billion, which does not take us close to where we're going, and it cuts job creation, it cuts business creation, it cuts the ability for employers to invest in our businesses.

Brian Lehrer: More clips to come from Representative Mike Flood's Monday evening event as they have made news nationally this week, not just in Nebraska, and including on the Epstein question. Joining me now on that town hall and more is Eleanor Mueller, Congress Reporter at Semafor. Hi, Eleanor. Welcome to WNYC.

Eleanor Mueller: Hey, thank you for having me.

Brian Lehrer: Before we go back to Nebraska, who has held town halls in their district so far, and how have they been going, just generally speaking? Obviously, you don't have to give us a full list, but you can imagine Republicans wouldn't find these to be good events for them right now.

Eleanor Mueller: No, they certainly are not, and so what I did on Monday was try and track down the members of Congress who were Republicans, who are willing to get in front of their constituents in a live forum the way Mike Flood did. I was only able to find three [chuckles] House Republicans that were willing to do that. One of them was Bryan Steil. His town hall already happened. It went very similarly to Mike Floods.

Then, of course, Mike Floods on Monday, where he could barely get a word out without being shouted down. We spoke before he knew what he was getting into. He's had three of these, including at the beginning of the year when voters were upset about Doge cuts, but I personally had not attended any of those town halls, and so I was a bit shocked to see just how viral the crowd was in response to him attempting to walk through what was in this "One Big Beautiful Bill" that they just passed.

Brian Lehrer: Well, one obvious question. Were those just Democrats from the district showing up to give him a hard time?

Eleanor Mueller: That is absolutely what Republicans will tell you. I don't know that, that is a defensible argument. We are seeing Republican-- Democrats, rather, have been conducting research on the way that voters are responding to this mega bill since before it was even passed. They've been following folks on how they feel about the cuts to Medicaid that helped pay for the spending on defense, on immigration, on these tax cuts, and people on both sides of the aisle are certainly not thrilled with the idea of losing access to their Medicaid, to their Social Security, and so I would doubt that it was just Democrats at this town hall, to be clear.

Brian Lehrer: Well, take us into Mike Flood's district in Nebraska, if this is what's being held up as the bellwether making national news, and there are so few Republicans, as you reported, holding these town halls. How red is his seat, and how does his broader constituency compare to the voices that we heard in that clip?

Eleanor Mueller: It's pretty red. I mean, I think that's one of the reasons why he was one of the members that felt comfortable coming to his constituents in this forum. He said afterward, "This is part of being a member of Congress. You have to be willing to go out in the town square to speak to people face-to-face, to answer their questions about what's going on."

We're seeing Republicans in bluer districts take a much different tack, and so the Chair of the House Republican Conference is actually in Jersey and Pennsylvania today, touring manufacturers with the Congressmen in those districts. Congressman Tom Kean, Rob Bresnahan, Ryan McKenzie, those are folks who are in much bluer districts, and so are focusing their efforts instead on these one-on-one smaller scale, more controlled environments as they look to chop this bill that they just passed, versus opening the floodgates to have anyone who wants to come and ask them questions, and confront them over it.

Brian Lehrer: Going further into the Medicaid cuts issue, and another clip from Congressman Flood's town hall. Of course, one of the major outcomes in the Big Bill passed last month was substantive cuts to Medicaid, including the implementation of work requirements in exchange for benefits for people who are considered of prime adult workforce age, and physically able to work. Here's a clip of Congressman Flood on those work requirements, and again, the crowd's response. This one runs 40 seconds.

Congressman Mike Flood: If you are able to work, and you are able-bodied, you have to work. If you choose not to work, you have to do not get free health care.

[crowd booing]

Congressman Mike Flood: You do not get free health care. Okay, so here's a question, do you think that people who are 28 years' old that can work, and refuse to work should get free health care?

Crowd: Yes.

Congressman Mike Flood: I don't think that a majority of Nebraskans agree with you.

Brian Lehrer: Well, that was an interesting clip, and maybe a more winning one for Flood. I don't know. You tell me as a Congress reporter, national politics reporter, but the way he framed the question there, do you think that people who are 28 years' old that can work, and refuse to work, should get free health care? The crowd was responding, "Yes", so what do you make of that, and does that indicate that it was, largely, Democrats in the crowd?

Eleanor Mueller: Well, I think Republicans are very aware of the fact that the Medicaid cuts are the least popular part of this bill. Again, it's something that Democrats have been hitting super, super hard since well before the bill was passed, and so you've seen a lot of them since then try to steer away from talking about the Medicaid cuts.

They've been told by their campaign arms, it's better to focus on the other individual components of this bill that are not associated with those Medicaid cuts, like no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, these individual pieces that are viewed quite favorably by people on both sides of the aisle, instead of, again, talking about the package as a whole, and leaving the door open for the conversation to be about those Medicaid cuts.

Some of them, like Mike Flood, want to take those arguments head on. They want to say, specifically, "I'm more than happy to get up in front of you, and tell you why I personally think that these spending reductions are actually good, why they're keeping people off of the program, who shouldn't be on the program in the first place, how maybe that's something that will protect its integrity down the road."

I mean, you can obviously see and hear in the clip that that didn't necessarily go that well. People were not necessarily responding, but I'm assuming that they think and hope that there's someone out there who will.

Brian Lehrer: There are nuances to that issue. It doesn't actually break down as simply as people who are 28 years old and able-bodied refusing to work, are getting kicked off health care, or Medicaid under this bill, which they would in that simple circumstance, but often, the circumstances aren't so simple having to do with other pressures on the person's life, or red tape, barriers that they put up-

Eleanor Mueller: Exactly.

Brian Lehrer: -to the person being able to stay on Medicaid. On the topic of health care, still, this one probably even tougher for Republicans nationwide than the able-bodied work requirement issue. A constituent asked Representative Flood about Congress's plan to provide, "Reasonable cost private sector health care to Nebraskans kicked off Medicaid." Here's the Congressman's response. 30 seconds.

Congressman Mike Flood: Well, one of the ways to bring down our commercial private payer insurance is to not have as many people on Medicaid, because what happens, Medicaid pays a much lower reimbursement rate than a commercial payer does, and so when there's a difference between those two, the commercial payer ends up paying more and more and more to make up for the difference.

Brian Lehrer: I know you're not a health care policy expert, you're a Congress reporter, but what's your understanding, if you've got one of how the Big Bill will impact the cost of health care for those on private insurance, especially private marketplace plans from the Affordable Care Act marketplaces. He's saying, more people with limited incomes will be pushed off Medicaid, and into that marketplace.

Eleanor Mueller: That is what I believe he's saying, and it's worth noting that Republicans have been super, super careful in crafting this bill to make sure that a lot of those Medicaid cuts will not be fully felt until after the midterm elections. Some of them have timelines that start now, and then end in 2028. Other things just will not take effect until 2028, but regardless, their hope, is as a party, that voters will not necessarily feel and so respond to some of these cuts until after the midterm elections are over.

That is not the case for Affordable Care Act subsidies. Those subsidies, which keep Affordable Care Act premiums low are slated to expire at the end of the year. There is nothing in this bill to extend those. It's now something that Democrats on the Hill are pushing really hard to try and get Republicans to work for them to extend, and so that is absolutely something that people are going to feel by the end of the year. It's going to sing a little bit extra if they also know that these Medicaid cuts are on the horizon.

Brian Lehrer: That is a really important point, and I even didn't know that, as closely as I follow these things, so I'm sure a lot of listeners didn't realize there had been a lot of publicity about the fact that the Medicaid cuts wouldn't go into effect until 2028, or after 2028, so it wouldn't be a personalized issue for people feeling that bite in the 2026 midterms, maybe not even in the 2028 Presidential Election, but you're saying the reduction in subsidies to people with limited incomes who get their health insurance from the Affordable Care Act marketplace, those subsidies are going to be reduced next year?

Eleanor Mueller: They will be reduced by the end of this year, and then premiums will go up in 2026.

Brian Lehrer: That is a really big story for everybody to follow, and see how it affects people's health care. You said at the beginning, if you're just joining us, my guest is Eleanor Mueller, Congress Reporter for Semafor, as we talk about some of the contentious town hall meetings taking place during summer recess, but as she pointed out earlier, there are only three Republicans in the whole country who have agreed to hold town hall meetings during this recess, because of what we've been hearing from Congressman Flood of Nebraska's town hall.

We heard similar scenes in other Republican town hall meetings earlier in this year, so especially after the passage of the Big "insert adjective of your choice" Bill just recently, they're more or less ducking, so just three Republicans, Eleanor said, but Jeff in Manhattan has a fair question after that stat.

Jeff: Good morning.

Brian Lehrer: Jeff, you're on WNYC, hello.

Jeff: Good morning, Brian. Thanks for taking my call. Yes, I'd like to know how many Democrats have had town halls. I live in upper Manhattan. Adriano Espaillat is our Congressman, and we've been asking for him to have a town hall for months, and he so far has refused to have a open town hall for his constituents. I'd like to know, since you're reporting on only three Republicans that have had town halls recently across the nation, why not discuss how many Democrats have had town halls?

I'm a Democrat, and I'm not trying to pigeonhole, or single out the Democrats, but I think that you should discuss that a lot of Democrats are avoiding having town halls as well to answer to their constituents of what they are, or not doing in Congress. Thank you.

Brian Lehrer: Thank you, Jeff. Fair question from Manhattan, and not Manhattan, Kansas. Eleanor, what do you know? Did you count those heads, too?

Eleanor Mueller: Those, there are far more of those heads across the country than there are for Republicans. Republicans, again, to be clear, three House Republicans having in-person town halls this August recess. More of them are having these telephone town halls, where they can have folks call in, they can mute folks, so that they can finish their answers in a way that was, as we saw difficult for Mike Flood to do.

Democrats are out there. They are hosting an extraordinary number of events focused specifically on this GOP bill, and how it's going to affect their constituents. We saw Congressman Mark Pocan go to an adjacent Republican controlled district in his state last week to talk about it. The town hall there. Congresswoman Yassamin Ansari did an actually four-district tour of Arizona, where she just talked about this bill. Yes, we're seeing Democrats in the House, Democrats in the Senate get out there in these open forums to really dig into the consequences of the bill for constituents, particularly when it comes to those social safety nets like Medicaid, Social Security.

Brian Lehrer: Oh, that Mark Pocan story is really interesting. I saw you link to that in one of your articles to a Milwaukee Journal Sentinel piece which I downloaded, and I'm going to read the beginning of that. "Democratic US Representative Mark Pocan crossed district lines to hold a town hall up the road from Republican US Representative Derrick Van Orden's home near the Mississippi river, marking Pocan's fifth town hall in Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District."

That's an interesting political stunt, if you want to use that word, Democrats crossing into Republican districts to hold town halls, where the Republicans aren't holding them themselves, and who's showing up? A lot of the Democrats in those districts. I mean, Democrats have rights in Republican districts too, but they're the minority.

Eleanor Mueller: Absolutely. I mean, I just think that they know that they have a winning card in their hands here when it comes to the 2026 midterm elections, and they are looking to drive it home as hard as they can, while they have these four weeks at home with their constituents. I do think that the caller makes a valid point, which is that there is a lot of frustration in these bluer districts with their elected officials for not doing more from the minority to try and obstruct the Republican agenda.

I have not done as much reporting into that, and so I can't necessarily speak to the trend line there, in terms of their willingness to go in front of constituents, and talk about that openly, but it is certainly something that we're hearing from across the country.

Brian Lehrer: All right, back to the Mike Flood town hall in Nebraska, and I referenced at the beginning of the segment that the reason-- I mean, you're a Congress reporter, tell me if this is fair. The reason that Congress is on such a long summer recess, is because Speaker Mike Johnson is helping President Trump avoid Congressional hearings on the Jeffrey Epstein issue, at least for now. Is that fair?

Eleanor Mueller: It is. It's a little bit more complicated than that. Basically, what happened is they always take the month of August off. The House specifically did leave a day before they were supposed to, because House Republicans could not unlock the House floor, and that was, in fact, because of the conflict over the Jeffrey Epstein case, and so, yes, their date recess is a date longer than it was previously.

It is not significantly longer. This was always something that they were planning to do, something that they do every single year, but certainly, that was a factor in them deciding to leave a little bit earlier than they had initially planned to.

Brian Lehrer: The Epstein issue did come up at Congressman Flood's town hall. Here's a 40 second clip that begins with the moderator passing along a question from the audience.

Audience: Why are you covering up the Epstein files?

[crowd cheers]

[applause]

Congressman Mike Flood: Let's be very clear. At the next pro forma session of the Congress, you'll find my name as a sponsor on a resolution from the House Rules Committee to release the Epstein files to protect the victims, and not re-victimize them again. I support Jamie Comer, who is the House's Oversight Committee chairman, subpoenaing Ms. Maxwell later this month to come testify in Washington. I am for the release of those records.

Brian Lehrer: All right. After hearing that clip for the first time just now, rather than just reading the transcript, I have a feeling that was actually not the moderator asking the question, but a member of the audience, because it sounded like it was asked with attitude.

Eleanor Mueller: It certainly did.

Brian Lehrer: How did that interaction go at this town hall? What do you think it reflected?

Eleanor Mueller: I mean, it's fascinating to listen to you, because the number one thing that you hear from Congressional Republicans at the Capitol is that their constituents do not care about Jeffrey Epstein. If they ask them if they are concerned about Trump's reluctance to release more than he has, they'll say, "The people who voted for me, the people I represent, even if they didn't vote for me, don't care about Jeffrey Epstein. They care about their taxes, they care about prices. They care about affordability. They absolutely do not bring up Jeffrey Epstein to me."

Then, of course, we heard for ourselves, they are, in fact, bringing up Jeffrey Epstein, and I think it's fascinating that he's saying he's going to go back, he's going to support a resolution that will maybe encourage the release of the files. It's important to note, I think, that there are two separate tracks for resolutions in the House right now. There is one that would mandate the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files, but there is another that would simply encourage the release, and so, in other words, it would not be binding.

It would not force the Trump administration to do anything that it did not want to do, and that is the one that leaders right now are supporting. That's why they sent everyone home early, is because there was a push to vote on that prior resolution, which would have been binding, and the leaders didn't want to do that.

Brian Lehrer: That's hilarious. They do that in Congress? They pass resolutions to just encourage somebody to do something that doesn't require them to do something they don't want to do?

Eleanor Mueller: Oh, yes. It does not-- The phrasing that we used to talk about a lot is that, it does not have the force of law. It's something that is basically expressing their opinion, versus actually mandating anything happens.

Brian Lehrer: Well, what's your sense of where Republicans in Congress really are on this, especially MAGA Republicans? We hear about Marjorie Taylor Greene being a hawk on getting more information about Epstein, and who his associates in any respect may have been. This is something Trump obviously does not want looked into more deeply, so how many MAGA Republicans-ish, and why are breaking from Donald Trump when they don't break from him on anything else?

Eleanor Mueller: It's a not insignificant number, and that is why this is one of my favorite storylines this year, is because it is a very interesting fault line in the GOP, in terms of who's wound up on which side of it. It's a little bit like the strikes on Iran, where you saw folks, again, like Marjorie Taylor Greene basically saying, "I think that Trump should have had to come to us, should have had to ask. I'm not necessarily even critiquing his agenda, but I am saying that I don't love how this went down."

The Epstein files are the exact same thing. We're seeing a lot of those MAGA folks, who in every other sense, or at least most other senses have been pretty die hard Trump allies, but on this, they're saying, "You said you would release the files. You're in office. We don't think you've given us everything that you have to give, and so we want to make sure that you do that."

Brian Lehrer: Why? Are they that concerned with sexual predators on children? I mean, Donald Trump was found liable for sexual abuse by a jury, not of a child, but still, and nobody in the Republican Party seemed to care. Is it that they care that much about the issue of this awful behavior, sexual abuse of children, or from a MAGA perspective, is it more that they think they're going to have a gotcha list that's going to hurt liberal elites more than it hurts Republicans? I mean, what's behind it?

Eleanor Mueller: I think they just think that this was an issue that really ginned up conservative, or really MAGA voters on the campaign trail, and that to deny them what you've promised will have lasting consequences. A couple of weeks ago Marjorie Taylor Greene, she said, I think the way she phrased it was, "It's no longer enough to dangle pieces of red meat. You promised us a steak dinner. You have to give us that steak dinner."

I think for them, it's just a matter of following through on what you said. You made a huge issue out of how there was a lot of wrongdoing, a lot of that wrongdoing on behalf of the establishment, which is huge for the MAGA base, that you wanted to unveil once you got to office, and so now let's do it. You can't keep avoiding this any longer.

Brian Lehrer: Back to health care for one second. We have a text that asks, "Is it obvious yet that if the Democrats had the courage to run on Medicare for All, they would hold the White House and Congress right now?" Well, that's obviously an advocate for Medicare for All, and their political opinion, their political analysis of what would be, but are you getting any sense, whether it's from town halls or anything else, as people are going to get kicked off Medicaid, including not just 28 year olds, who are able-bodied, but refuse to work, and as the Affordable Care Act marketplace insurance costs are going to go up according to what we heard, that this idea of, "Let's just do Medicare for All," might be taking hold, or Democrats even running on it?

Eleanor Mueller: I have not seen a ton of talk about it. I think that Medicare for All was something that was politically complicated for Democrats when they first brought it up, and now, they're faced with the tough reality that they are, one, in the minority in the House and the Senate now, and two, even if they win back, say, the House in the midterm elections, they're not going to have the presidency.

It's been interesting talking to them about how, even just they plan to reverse rather these Medicaid cuts, because they won't have a president to sign into law their priorities. They're going to have to work with Trump, even if they are able to call the shots in the House, or call the shots in the Senate, and so it's a tough place to be in, for sure, and it's certainly one that makes something as lofty as Medicare for All elusive, at least, until the next president can take office.

Brian Lehrer: One more question about another topic before you go, because I see you've also been reporting on the fallout from President Trump firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday after he didn't like the July job numbers. You reported that some Republicans are pushing back. I mean, what we're hearing, certainly from Democrats, and from economists, and international affairs analysts, is that this is a sign of authoritarianism.

Many have said, "This is what China does. Announce official statistics to help the government's image, not to help to inform its economic policy." There are risks to the US Dollar and other things if US economic statistics, which have been seen at least as bedrocks of credibility around the world, can't be trusted, or seen in the future as just being released to pump up the president's popularity, so when you report that some Republicans are pushing back, is that on the president, or is that on his critics?

Eleanor Mueller: I mean, so I used to cover labor policy, and then after that, financial services policy, and so the [chuckles] Bureau of Labor Statistics report is something that I care deeply about, and I think we saw a real uproar, rightfully so, on Friday when the president made this decision. It was-- A lot of economists told me maybe the most unexpected and unprecedented thing that he's done yet when it comes to economic policy, and that's because of just how much rides on the reliability of these numbers.

The commissioner, there's absolutely no sign that she conducted any kind of wrongdoing, whether politically motivated or otherwise, and we're now talking about this chance that not only our government agencies, but the Federal Reserve, Wall Street will not have this gold standard, a government produced data that gives us a snapshot of where the economy is, and at the beginning of this week, the stock market has-- Seemed to be fine.

Clearly, this is not something that has investors rattled, but it certainly has economists rattled. For me, what I think the really interesting part is, the Federal Reserve relies on this data in deciding how to navigate rate cuts. We saw a ton of drama the last time there was a government shutdown, because the Federal Reserve was trying to navigate this soft landing to raise interest rates without slowing the economy down too much, and there was a lot of panic over how they were going to do that, if they didn't have the data they needed, because the BLS was shut down.

Now, we're looking at that again, right? They are looking at cutting rates the next time they meet, because of the slowdowns that we saw in the labor market, and now they may not have the information that they need to do that, or if they do, they might not feel like they're able to trust it. If Trump has indicated a pattern of retaliation toward accurately reporting the numbers, and that's obviously something he's wanted for a long time is that lower, that lower interest rate.

Brian Lehrer: Eleanor Mueller, Congress Reporter for Semafor. Great job on your first time on the show. Thank you so much.

Eleanor Mueller: Thank you so much, Brian. I really appreciate it.

 

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