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Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer on WNYC. Let's talk about New York City and the election now. Harris won in the city by a lot, to be sure. With us are Jon Campbell, Albany reporter for WNYC and Gothamist, and Arya Sundaram, WNYC and Gothamist reporter covering race and immigration. They co-wrote an article on Gothamist called Donald Trump Made Gains Throughout New York City as Dem Margins Plummeted. Hi, Arya. Hi, Jon.

Arya Sundaram: Hello. Thanks for having me.

Jon Campbell: Hi, Brian.

Brian Lehrer: Your article includes the stat that Harris's margin of victory over Trump in the city was 16 points less than Joe Biden's margin four years ago. You can decide who wants to start on this general stat, but what were those margins citywide in each case before we go into the really specific groups or areas of the city where there was the most change?

Jon Campbell: Yes, Brian, I'll take that one. It's a pretty stunning look honestly. You're right, Harris won big. There's no if, ands, or but about that in New York City. She got about 67%, 68% of the vote to Donald Trump's 30% of the vote. Now, that's a 37-point gap. That's a strong gap, but it's less strong when you take into account that New York City is 6:1 Democratic.

In 2020, Joe Biden took home 76% of the vote to Trump's 22%, 23% of the vote. That's a 53% gap. That's where you get that 16-point change in the margin. That's a big difference and it happened in every single borough. Every borough moved to the right. Now, that is in line with a national trend. Most counties throughout the country shifted to the right, but it's a little stunning in New York City, which is heavily, heavily Democratic.

Brian Lehrer: Arya, your report that Trump narrowed his margins by more than 20 points in the Bronx and Queens, your article has this great map of the city with every neighborhood in shades of colors that show how much it changed or didn't. Listeners, check that out on Gothamist to be sure because it's a visual we really can't replicate on the radio. Were there certain parts of Queens and the Bronx where this was most pronounced?

Arya Sundaram: Certainly. One of the sharpest rightward shifts came in North Corona in Queens, where Harris just slightly won over Trump by about 6% points. Whereas we look back four years ago, Biden won by 55 points. You have whole swaths of area around with Corona, Jackson Heights, going into Flushing. In the Bronx, you have the western Bronx, particularly areas that are very heavily lower income and Dominican. Then moving into Brooklyn, you have whole swaths of southern Brooklyn, in particular around Sunset Park, going into Dyker Heights and Bensonhurst as well.

Brian Lehrer: You report these were largely Asian and Latino neighborhoods. To what extent in some of those cases?

Arya Sundaram: I think what's striking here, this was reported by an analysis by Michael Lange and his great Substack. He said that 20 New York City assembly districts swung to the right by more than 30% since 2016. All of them, except for one largely orthodox assembly district, were either majority or plurality Latino or Asian. These are mostly Latino areas, for example, across the Bronx, in parts of Queens. Like I said, heavily Dominican neighborhoods in parts of the Bronx, Colombian, Peruvian, Mexican populations in Queens.

Like I said, there were major shifts as well in largely Asian neighborhoods. You have Sunset Park and Flushing, home to some of the city's many Chinatowns, some of its largest concentrations of Chinese residents. Richmond Hill, there's a large South Asian population there. There was a major swing to the right as well. I think what's really striking here is that we're seeing this move across a number of key groups for the Democratic Party in particular.

Brian Lehrer: Listeners, does any of this sound like you? Did anybody listening right now vote for Joe Biden in 2020 and Donald Trump in 2024? If you live in New York City and if you're in any of this particular national origin or ethnic groups or racial groups that our guests are talking about, if you're any kind of Asian American or Latino, Black men also shifted, Black women didn't shift so much, 212-433-WNYC. We'll talk about how largely Black neighborhoods and largely liberal white neighborhoods really did not shift in this election within New York City.

Talk about if you did. Listeners, again, only if you're in New York City and only if you voted for Biden in 2020 but did not vote for Harris in 2024. It could also be that you decided to stay home. Tell us your story or ask our guests from WNYC and Gothamist newsroom, a question about their analysis of the New York City vote. 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692, with Jon Campbell and Arya Sundaram. 212-433-9692. Call or text.

Jon, nationally and in New Jersey, Trump only got about the same number of votes as he did in 2020. We've been talking about that every day on the show. The margins were because fewer people voted and that decline basically all came from the Democrats' column. How much was that the story in New York City versus Trump actually getting more votes than before?

Jon Campbell: Well, two things seem to be true here. One, Kamala Harris received far, far fewer votes and voter turnout was down, right? About 573,000 fewer people voted in New York City in 2024 than they did in 2020. That number will shift a little bit as the last provisional ballots and military ballots, things like that come in. More than 500,000, less than 600,000 was the fewer vote total for this go round.

Now, the bulk of that did come from Harris. I'm sorry. That number was Harris's vote drop. It was significant, but Donald Trump did increase his vote count in every single borough. He increased his vote count by more than 94,000 votes. Every single borough, he picked up 23,000 votes in the Bronx. He picked up 35,000 votes in Queens, so it's both. It is that some Democrats seem to stay home, but it's also that Donald Trump increased his vote total and his vote share in every single borough.

Brian Lehrer: Let's take a phone call. Brandon in Manhattan, you're on WNYC. Hi, Brandon.

Brandon: Good morning, Brian and Jon and Arya. Full disclosure. I actually called in at the previous segment with David, who has given some great points. I'm a white person.

Brian Lehrer: Well, I'll finish the full disclosure. We asked you to hold on because we knew you were going to talk about the New York City context for this segment, so thank you for your patience.

Brandon: Brian, I'm always happy to hold for you. In full disclosure, I voted for Biden, and then I voted for Kamala this election. Like many, I'm just trying to process the results and think about it. I just realized the only thing I can do is just like many, through our local filter. Elected Democrats, particularly progressive politicians in New York, they say a lot. They just really fail to sell it and do it. As a result, you see the incumbents getting hammered. These shifts in New York occurred in working-class communities. You look at New York.

We're apparently the richest and most powerful city in the country, but we're patting ourselves on the back for putting trash in cans. We have historic vacancy rates and skyrocketing rents, but we're failing on any meaningful housing reform at the state and local level. Sure, the City of Yes might help, but we're not serious about it. Families are struggling and we're seeing stories of billions being spent on migrants. Our crime rate is historically lower, but every day, people are experiencing or witnessing crimes or hearing about super recidivists.

You can't buy anything at the pharmacy because it's locked up. Our Democratic mayor is wrapped up in a blanket of corruption and is indicted. Then you have Hochul. New York City saved her. She pulls a transformational, progressive policy to invest in mass transit, reduce congestion and pollution, and improve the quality of life. She just pulled it at the one-yard line because of Jersey and some commuters. It just shows exactly how Democrats and progressives just cannot govern effectively.

Brian Lehrer: You're telling a story of both Democrats not governing in a populist enough way. Similar to what the former Bernie speech writer, David Sirota, who was on in the last segment, was arguing and making the Republican argument that Democrats aren't tough enough on crime and disorder. Both things, yes? Usually, we don't hear both from the same people.

Brandon: Why can't we aim to make things better? Again, this is the beauty and challenge of politics. I just think, especially in places like New York City, we're like our worst advocates.

Brian Lehrer: Brandon, thank you very much. Let's take another one. Carol, also in Manhattan, you're on WNYC. Carol, I see you a Biden voter in '20 and a Trump voter this year. Do I have that right?

Carol: Absolutely. Illegal immigration was my biggest issue. It's costing the city millions of dollars. We don't believe the Democrats when they say, "Oh, they pay taxes." They don't have Social Security numbers. They're not paying taxes. The ones who do pay taxes, they take in more than what they pay in taxes. They have free education, housing. It's a stress on the economy. Also, yesterday, you had someone call in and talk about how they stage car accidents.

They do stage car accidents and slip and fall in some construction sites. They get workers' comp. It's a claim called Roosevelt Re, R-E, for reinsurance. The insurance companies are going after these doctors and lawyers who have been in a scam. They're calling it RICO charges, where they get illegals to stage car accidents, stage fall. They sue. They have surgery. They are making millions of dollars. It's costing the city millions of dollars. The Democrats are just lying to us.

Brian Lehrer: Carol, thank you very much. I have to fact-check that one. I have to say we did get a call on that the other day. Now, Carol's echoing it. I guess it's going around social media. We would have to verify whether there's some concentration of the recent migrant asylum seekers faking accidents to get workers' comp or to get lawsuit settlements. I don't know why those reinsurance companies, if they're really involved in anything like that, wouldn't be doing that already to a much larger degree with people who are already here.

You don't have to be an asylum seeker to get involved with something like that if it's real. I'm just saying. That one, we would have to fact-check. On taxes, maybe you don't pay income taxes if you're getting paid off the books. You do pay other kinds of taxes. You hear, Arya, the larger points that both of these callers are making about disorder and the Democrats not doing enough about it. Does this ring true with what your reporting indicates about why working-class people of color, parts of the city tended to trend somewhat more toward Trump this election?

Arya Sundaram: Well, look, I'm sure this analysis, this reckoning will be going on for quite some time with the Democrats as they reel from whatever happened this election. I think it's certainly true that there was this sense that the Democratic messaging just wasn't pushing through in the same way that the Republican messaging was. I think the migrant crisis is a great example here, right? It goes to show that Governor Greg Abbott from Texas, when he started busing migrants to New York City, he made immigration a national issue, not just an issue that was important to voters around the southwestern border.

Now, it was a top issue for voters in New York City. That's something that was clearly reflected in some of how voting actually took place. Not to mention the economy, of course. I think it's fascinating that the Bronx saw the greatest shift of any county. It's also the poorest borough in the state, right? A place where clearly inflation hit hard. Issues of the economy, of disorder, of the migrant crisis were clearly top of mind for voters as this election played out.

Brian Lehrer: Jon, your joint article also reports that there were significant down-ballot effects too. Have a few examples?

Jon Campbell: Yes, there's one example that gets exactly to what you just asked Arya about, and that's in South Brooklyn. A guy by the name of Steve Chan was running for state Senate. He's a Republican. He was running against Democratic Senator Iwen Chu in this L-shaped district that includes Bensonhurst and a lot of these areas that we've talked about in South Brooklyn that did get considerably redder. He was able to defeat her. I spoke to him for this story. I thought he'd have a good perspective.

I said, "What was it? What was it on the ground that fueled this rightward shift in this area?" He said, "It's not that hard. It's really two things. People are sick of going to the grocery store and seeing prices go up. They're sick of feeling unsafe." That perception of public safety, that doesn't always match the reality of what the statistics show. He pointed to those two major things. Then outside of the city, in the suburbs, in Central New York, you did see the rightward shift in most of these counties, but that didn't necessarily match up with the results on the ground.

You did see Republican Mike Lawler win in the Hudson Valley. He won quite comfortably over Democrat Mondaire Jones. Democrats fared well in other seats. They flipped Laura Gillen. She's a Democrat. She defeated Anthony D'Esposito on Long Island despite this rightward shift. They flipped a seat in Central New York as well, Brandon Williams. It was kind of a mixed bag, but there were certainly some down-ballot repercussions there.

Arya Sundaram: Also, I think it's important to note, Brian, that there were whole swathes of Queens in the Bronx that went for AOC as well as for Trump. It's not necessarily that voters have this strict ideology that they're voting on. AOC, of course, a progressive. Trump, obviously, a conservative here. I think these concerns around the economy, around migrants, et cetera, can translate into very different people that even the same voters are voting for.

Brian Lehrer: Yes, and we talked a little bit on the show yesterday about how AOC posted on her Instagram, an invitation to people to chime in there if they were AOC/Trump voters because the statistics from that congressional district would indicate that there had to be some. At least the ones that I saw reflected on her site seem to be going to, "Both of you care about the working class." Have you reported on that at all, Arya?

Arya Sundaram: I haven't specifically spoken to AOC and Trump voters on this issue, but that makes sense, right? I think this election was clearly a referendum in many ways about the economy as analysts are chiming in on. There's this sense that the working class has moved away from the Democrats. This largely working-class, unionized voter bloc that the Democrats once relied on is certainly no longer playing in their favor.

Brian Lehrer: I think we're going to leave it there. Let's see. Oh, I was going to go to a caller in Astoria, but he hung up. I was wondering if that might have been an AOC/Trump voter [chuckles] because he was telling our screener that he voted for Biden, voted for Hillary, but voted for Trump this time in Astoria. Thought we might have had an AOC/Trump voter. Blows people's minds to think that there could even be such a thing.

That's part of what we need to get our heads around that there can be such a thing after these election results. All right, last thing. Arya, I think I'll stay with you on this because you report more in the city, Jon reports statewide. You reported on the possible impact of the 2025 mayoral race or the possible impact on the 2025 mayoral race of this election. What are you looking at?

Arya Sundaram: A great deal of the poll that's fighting incumbent Mayor Adams is progressive. A number of analysts told me that there's potential that these results, this rightward shift, could spell trouble for progressive candidates. There's certainly a question of who's going to win the voters in these areas that shifted right and these majority Asian and Latino areas in particular.

Adams received a significant share of votes in a number of those very heavily Latino and Asian neighborhoods that have since shifted rightward. One analyst put it to me, John Mollenkopf in CUNY, a demographer over there. He said that he's thinking that Adams' advisors may be thinking that those are gettable votes. Of course, it's still a question of who really will get them in the end.

With the larger presidential race at hand, with Trump winning, do Democrats and do voters, pardon me, want someone that can play defense with our president? Will we see a larger progressive upswing, more voter turnout in this election? It's unclear exactly how that will play out, but those are two possibilities of the threads that might be affecting this coming mayoral primary.

Brian Lehrer: To close, just lest we lose the complexity of some of these election results. Jon, I'm glad you pointed out. We covered it last week, but it certainly hasn't been the emphasis that Democrats did flip three House seats. Two of them in the immediate New York City area, one on Long Island, one in the Hudson Valley, and that also stretches into the Catskill. The third one up near Syracuse. It's not a simple black-and-white result, right?

Jon Campbell: No, it's not. That was a big priority for Governor Hochul, for Hakeem Jeffries. They launched this big coordinated campaign where they really put the state Democratic committee to use. They knocked on hundreds of thousands of doors. It paid dividends. They did flip three seats and held the seats that they needed to, but it's swallowed up in this big night for the Republicans nationally. They're not really getting credit for that because the Democrats lost many, many other places in the country. It's looking like a tough path to Democrats taking control of the House. It was a good night for House Democrats in New York, but it was a bad night for them in many other areas of the country.

Brian Lehrer: Jon Campbell, Albany reporter for WNYC and Gothamist, and Arya Sundaram, WNYC and Gothamist reporter covering race and immigration. They co-wrote an article on Gothamist that includes that great heat map, as it's called, of New York City neighborhoods and how much they shifted toward Trump or not called Donald Trump Made Gains Throughout New York City as Democratic Margins Plummeted. Thanks, Jon. Thanks, Arya.

Jon Campbell: Thank you.

Arya Sundaram: Thank you.

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