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Brian Lehrer: It's the Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC. Good morning, everyone. The presidential campaign. President Biden and Vice President Harris will be in Philadelphia today. WPVI, Channel 6 TV in Philly quotes the Biden campaign is saying, "This is the launch of a summer-long effort to engage Black student organizations, community groups, and faith centers." It comes as polls continue to show Biden weaker with Black, Latino, and younger voters than he was in 2020, and inflation topping the concerns of most voters of any demographic.

The Philly TV report says Biden and Harris will stop at Girard College, an independent boarding school with a predominantly Black student body, and they'll visit a small business to speak to members of the Black Chamber of Commerce in Philadelphia. How bad is Biden's decline in popularity among some of the key voter groups he needs to win? Eric Levitz from Vox, who we'll talk to in just a minute, he specializes on divides within the Democratic and Republican parties. Eric Levitz gives these numbers for some context.

He writes, "In many polls, Biden's level of support among white voters and senior citizens is comparable to his 2020 marks. Yet he has lost an extraordinary amount of standing with young and non-white voters. Four years ago, Biden won voters under 30 by 23 points, Black voters by 79 points, and Hispanic ones by 35," according to the Democratic data firm catalyst that he cites. Now, he writes, the latest New York Times poll of battleground states shows Trump leading Biden by three points among young voters. Yes, I said Trump leading Biden by three points among young voters.

Last week, a Fox News poll of voters nationwide found Biden tied with Trump among those under 30 in a two-way matchup. When third party candidates were included, Trump led Biden by 10 points with younger voters, as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. took 16% of the group support, and obviously more from Biden than from Trump. That from Eric Levitz who joins us now. Some of you may know him as a former columnist for New York Magazine, where he explored what he calls the diploma divide in politics among other things.

Now, he reports for Vox on what he describes as political and policy issues with a special focus on questions that internally fracture the American left and right. We certainly have issues like those in play right now on both sides. He calls this apparent tanking of young Black and Latino support for Biden the 2024 election's biggest mystery. That's in the headline of his article. Eric, thanks for coming on. Welcome to WNYC.

Eric Levitz: Thanks for having me.

Brian Lehrer: Before we even get into the content here, I want to address for the listeners some of who may be skeptical right from the outset and for good reason why we even talk about the polls, which we try to be selective about on this show because we know the downsides. Polls can be wrong, and even more important, I think they are just a snapshot in time, and so they risk leaving the impression that the outcome of a race is already known, and that can decrease voter turnout, which is bad for democracy no matter who wins. We approach polls selectively.

In this case, it's clear that the Biden campaign is taking polls like the ones you cited very seriously with this outreach campaign they're launching in Philly today. This is not just, "Oh, look at these numbers. Golly, gee." This is the campaign itself is defining success by doing something about these poll numbers. Everybody, I know that's a long windup, but Eric, do you agree that the Biden-Harris campaign believes these polls are real or real enough and multiple enough to build a summer-long campaign focus around?

Eric Levitz: Yes, I think so. As you say, polls can be wrong. In this particular era that we're living in, where answering phone calls from strangers I think is a little bit less of a typical behavior than it was in previous generations, especially given the avalanche of spam that everybody's been getting, I think that's a challenge for the accuracy of polls. At the same time, if you look at the polls of recent federal elections, they weren't always directly on, but that the margin of error is actually not much higher than it was in earlier eras. I think the polls have some legitimacy.

This particular finding in the polls, Biden's level of support among young and non-white voters varies from poll to poll, but pretty much every survey that I've seen that's been published this year shows his support down among those groups from where it was in 2020. I think that consistency of the finding is something the Biden campaign really can't comfortably ignore.

Brian Lehrer: A few points either way in the swing states that are close and that are decisive really matter. We frame this as here's what the campaign is doing, both campaigns, and here's why the polls are why. We'll get to your theory of why this all may be, but your analysis of which young and non-white voters are souring on Biden and what issues they rank is most important in poll after poll are interesting. For example, you cite a Harvard Institute of Politics poll that found among voters under 30, only 2% of them named the war in Gaza as their top priority. Did that finding surprise you, and do you see others that corroborate it?

Eric Levitz: I maybe would've thought it would've been slightly higher, but overall, it doesn't surprise me. I think there've been several polls of young voters that found that the exact margins vary. Among almost every demographic group that you look at, people want similar things. Concerns about the economy, the cost of living, inflation, those tend to be pretty high up for all groups, really. Then, there's maybe some variance in how high immigration is among different groups, but that seems to be relatively high. Young voters in their issue priorities aren't that dissimilar from the broader electorate.

There is obviously among really highly engaged young people who are really into politics and into activism, the war in Gaza looms very large. This is a problem for Biden in the sense that there are lots of young, progressive activist groups that don't have huge numbers that they're going to bring to the ballot box, but have influence on social media and could potentially be helping his campaign, and instead are really trying to influence his policy by creating a felt threat that they could hurt him. It's not a great situation for Biden, but it manifests at the level of opposition from the highly engaged, not opposition from the electorate writ large. At least-- [crosstalk]

Brian Lehrer: Inflation, and that seems to apply relative to the other big issues we consider the hot buttons, abortion rights, immigration, democracy as an issue, police reform, voting rights, student loans, all ranked below the old school perennial concern about the economy's impact on people's personal finances, in this case, inflation in particular. Do you think the media coverage might focus too much on all those other things because they're sexier to talk about than the price of lunch at Wendy's?

Eric Levitz: Yes, there's a real chicken and egg thing with the media and its audience. I think that part of the issue is the young voters who are especially likely, I think, to prioritize economic issues and not be too engaged on foreign policy and these culture war issues that get more attention tend to be less engaged, less politically engaged voters, voters who maybe turned out in 2020, which was a historically high turnout election, but didn't turn out two years ago for the midterms and don't consume that much news media.

The core audience for news media I think is a bit more interested in somewhat potentially sensationalistic conflicts that really speak to divisions over who we are as a nation, that speak to their identities as individuals and the way that those influence their relationship to society. Then, the stuff of life and death, high drama, and also in my view, a very serious moral issue, which is the US support for what Israel is doing in Gaza and the humanitarian crisis there.

I think that there is this issue where the core audience is less interested in reading articles, analyzing the umpteen article, analyzing where we are with inflation and economic issues. Maybe that gets to a point where it's self-selecting, where the media tends to that core audience, and that alienates the readers who just want to have information about their personal finances in the economy. It becomes self-selecting. I'm not really sure exactly what the dynamic is there.

Brian Lehrer: What about abortion in particular, which was obviously such a driving issue after the Dobbs decision in the 2022 midterms favoring Democrats, and maybe at another level or the highest rung compared to inflation, of all those other issues, social issues, international issues that I just listed a minute ago? For you as a reporter who specializes in issues that fracture the left among itself and the right among itself or themselves, do you see many voters, especially young women, who might be saying, "Well, what do I care about more? My abortion rights or that I don't think Biden is the best candidate when it comes to inflation?"

Whether or not that's true, and we'll get to that, too, you have an interesting article on how Trump's policies might actually increase inflation. In terms of the perception, do you see that divide as very salient, or let's say that internal tension as very salient? Based on the poll numbers that you're reading or any other reporting, among many young women, what would I rather have? My abortion rights or a better cost of living?

Eric Levitz: I think that there's definitely a population of cross-pressured voters that are like the ones that you describe that broadly buy into the narrative that Trump is a great businessman, he knows how to run the economy, COVID wasn't his fault, so let's judge him by 2019. In 2019, we had low unemployment, we had low inflation. He's the good economic manager. Who have that point of view, but also do have a very strong personal investment in abortion rights, and therefore, a really strong alienation from a significant portion of the Republican coalition.

I would say probably more typically among young women, again, we're talking about-- there was the one poll you mentioned that showed Biden actually losing with young voters. I don't think that's as consistent as him just losing the margin among young voters, shrinking. I think the typical young woman voter today is going to just be a straightforward Democrat, is not necessarily going to trust Donald Trump to do much of anything, and is very motivated and energized by Dobbs and by the desire to reassert what had been a constitutional right for half a century.

I think that abortion is still the Democratic Party's best issue. It's the one they're messaging the most in paid advertising, and it's one that really made a difference in the midterms. According to all the posters that I talked to, there was just a real inflection point where there were polls before Dobbs and polls after Dobbs, and the red wave really receded as soon as that decision came down, and so- [crosstalk]

Brian Lehrer: Go ahead.

Eric Levitz: - Democrats want to press the advantage there.

Brian Lehrer: Yet white women as a group voted majority for Trump in both 2016 and 2020. That was before Dobbs, in both cases, we'll see how much that changes and how much it's because of Dobbs in 2024. Some people are calling in already. We invite your phone calls for Eric Levitz from Vox, 212-433-WNYC, on the presidential campaign, 212-433-9692. Questions, comments, stories, call or text, 212-433-WNYC. Maybe Biden and Harris launching this summer-long campaign emphasis in Philly today, specifically at a largely Black boarding school and a small business, is consistent with these findings about inflation being the number one concern and Biden being down on that issue, that political assumption, right?

Eric Levitz: Yes, I would say so. I think that they know they have an issue there. They know, in order to win Pennsylvania, they've got to really run up really solid margins in Philadelphia. There's polling that showed that Biden, as you say, has actually held up and perhaps even maybe gained a little support in rural America a tiny bit. Who knows? He might actually be in okay position in Western Pennsylvania where he's not going to win, but where maybe he can maintain the margins that he did in 2020.

A real point of concern, if you believe the current polling, is that his margins in major cities, including among young, non-white voters, are just going to be so much smaller than they were that it potentially flips the state to Trump. I think that's why he's where he is.

Brian Lehrer: By the way, another question for you, listeners, is anybody listening right now who was at the Trump rally in the Bronx last week? We're going to talk about that with Eric here in a second. If anybody was there, whether you were there as a supporter, there as somebody who's considering Trump, there as somebody who hates Trump and you just wanted to view the spectacle, I don't care. If you were there in person, curious to hear what you saw and what you thought. 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692. Don't know if anybody like that is listening right at this moment.

Just in case, putting out that specific invite among the general invite to callers, as we always have. Eric, did you happen to pay any attention to the Trump rally in the South Bronx last week? I don't know how many of the young or Black or Latino or other attendees were actually from the area or were there because they actually support or are considering a vote for Trump. Did you look into that at all and whether anything there represented anything in these polls or the nascent Republican, multiracial, more conservative coalition that the Republicans at least claim to hope to build?

Eric Levitz: I didn't see the rally itself. I saw a lot of photos from the rally, which did make it seem like the crowd was significantly more diverse than your average MAGA rally. I think that one thing that we have seen is that there's been some really eye-popping poll results in New York State. I believe that the New York Times' most recent poll, and I would need to check this, but I think that Trump was ahead by less than 10 points.

Brian Lehrer: Biden was ahead. Biden was ahead.

Eric Levitz: Sorry, that Biden was ahead of Trump by less than 10 points in New York, which would be a huge contraction in his level of support, Biden's. We saw this in the midterm as well, where Democrats did really poorly in New York relative to the rest of the country. There's been some movement. I think that there's been a bit of a backlash within the city to the difficulties presented by the influx of migrants and the fiscal challenges of sheltering them. I think that there's been a backlash to the sense that is not, I think, wholly backed by the numbers at this point, that crime has gotten in disorder, have increased.

I think that there is potentially growing support for Trump, both within the city and the state, and that might have been reflected in the size of the rally.

Brian Lehrer: That poll you're referring to, a Siena poll, Biden leads Trump 47 to 38%. In that one poll, there's an example where I wouldn't take it too seriously, too early. One poll, but it's shockingly different from the result of the 2020 election, where Biden won the state by 23 points, if it's just a nine-point margin in New York right now. 212-433-WNYC. I don't know if it's apples to apples, but do you think there's anything to learn by comparing the makeup or what people might say in the Trump-Bronx crowd and today's Biden-Philly crowd, in both cases aiming for largely people of color, largely younger voters?

Eric Levitz: Well, I think that, I haven't seen, but very likely Biden's crowd is going to be a bit less white than Trump's was, which even for being the South Bronx, I think there were a lot of people from the surrounding areas that are maybe more fit the profile of the typical Trump supporter and that might be somewhat less represented at Biden's rally in Philly. I think that it's a little tricky because people who go to rallies and people who decide elections usually are different populations. If you are so politically engaged that you're going to go out and cheer for a particular presidential candidate, there are exceptions, but chances are you are a really strong partisan who votes reliably for your party, the party that you're out cheering for.

Whereas-

Brian Lehrer: Go ahead.

Eric Levitz: - the voters that really tend to decide elections are those that are less strongly wedded to either party. They are typically less engaged in politics because generally if you're someone who's logging on and reading about politics every day, posting about politics, chances are you have a very strong attachment to a particular ideology and political party. The people I think that are going to decide this election probably aren't the people that are attending these rallies.

Brian Lehrer: Interesting. Might be true of political rallies in general. They bring out the people who already support you. Let me ask you one other thing before we take some phone calls and also get into your particular theory from your latest article about people, even younger voters, even voters of color, who have less trust in politics in general, moving more toward Trump than they were in the past, but sure enough, older and white voters based on their life experiences, generalizing here, but it's generally true, have more reason to trust what you call society or the political system than voters of color do, or younger voters.

My question about that is why would Trump be receptacle for that distrust when he himself is so untrustworthy in the eyes of so many, seems to break every promise that it's not in his interest to keep more casually than even other politicians, and runs largely on far-right, populist, racist, and nativist themes, not to mention against abortion rights, which are all widely seen as denying the basic humanity of immigrants and working to disenfranchise Black voters in multiple ways, you know his reputation.

Eric Levitz: There are these two different conceptions of trust that are relevant and that political scientists talk about. One of them is what's called social trust, which is just a sense of how much you can trust other people generally. They ask voters questions like, can you generally trust others or can you really never be too careful with people? Then, their political trust, how much confidence you have in institutions, do you trust, not any particular political party, but just the government in general to do the right thing, et cetera.

In the Trump era, in 2016 and 2020, we saw that voters with low levels of social trust, voters who think you just can't trust other people, were more likely to support Trump, while I trust people we're more likely to support Biden, and I think there also holds for political trust. We had this sorting along the lines of trust when previously trust really didn't predict whether you were going to be a Republican or a Democrat. It suddenly became relevant. Then, the other aspect of this that's relevant to what we've been talking about is that non-white voters have less trust than white voters, young voters have less trust than older voters, and voters who only sometimes turn out for elections have less trust than reliable voters.

Biden's problem is with young, non-white voters who sporadically vote, but don't always vote. It lines up demographically. I think in terms of why, I think that Trump's picture of the world is a pretty paranoid, distrustful picture of the world, American carnage, there's disorder that's out of control, you and your family are threatened by these criminal, undocumented immigrants. It's a very low-trust picture of the world just in terms of what society is like. Then, especially in terms of the politics of it, it's explicitly anti-system and anti-institutional.

The whole system is rigged, it's corrupt, it's a swamp, he's going to drain it, he's not a politician, he's against the political system, he's going to fix it, he's going to get in there and he's not going to have these niceties about the constitution or whatever. He's just going to get things done for you and your family, and he's going to take on the powers that be. It's a very populist message that put aside what he actually does in office and who he actually serves with his policies, which I think it is largely the elite that he claims to be against. In terms of his rhetoric, that is the picture that he paints.

Whereas in the Trump era, especially with Trump assaulting so many institutions, trying to compromise the integrity of federal law enforcement, trying to question the validity of elections, Democrats ended up in the position of really being the champions of America's existing institutions, defending the integrity of the FBI, the DOJ, the CIA, and then the political system itself, that we need to save democracy, that we have this great system that needs to be saved and preserved against this threat.

I think that that led to a situation where we have more sorting potentially along the lines of trust, where increasingly Democrats become more and more the party of high trust voters, and Republicans, the party of low trust voters.

Brian Lehrer: Elijah in Manhattan was at the Trump rally in the Bronx. Elijah, you're on WNYC with Eric Levitz from Vox. Thank you so much for calling in.

Elijah: Hi. Nice to talk to you guys.

Brian Lehrer: What you got?

Elijah: Do you want me to talk about the Trump rally?

Brian Lehrer: Yes. In what capacity were you there, if you're comfortable saying.

Elijah: I was just checking it out. I am a young voter, if that's relevant. I'm 23. I was a Bernie voter in 2020. One thing, which was a big takeaway for me at the rally, is that there were all of these groups of people, many of whom were these type of low-trust voters you're talking about, who had different issues which they were focused on, all of which had one solution with this one quick trek, which is reelect Donald Trump. I was standing on line with these three dudes who are pretty normal, and this guy goes up to us, who's like, "Trump is going to solve the immigration crisis the only way we can, he's going to shoot every migrant at the border."

Then, the guys behind me are like-- This dude said that. Then, the three guys behind me are like, "No, man, that's not what this movement is about. Trump is going to be tough but fair." I'm paraphrasing, obviously, but this is basically what they said. Then, at the same time, there's these people from I think Falun Gong walking the line, asking people to sign a petition to stop the Communist Party of China. There's people there who are yelling at counter protestors about gender politics basically. What you had is just this really eclectic collection of issues which people are devoted to, which had one thing in common, which is that Trump will stop the bad thing from happening.

Brian Lehrer: Did it look to you, Elijah, like many people in the crowd were immigrants? I know you can't tell an immigrant by their face, but any way that you get-- because I did see [crosstalk]

Elijah: It was a very heavily Spanish-speaking crowd.

Brian Lehrer: It was. Somebody showed me a video clip of Trump at that rally telling a story that's really gross to even characterize, but he was saying, this is about immigration and it's this old fable of a snake, and a woman saves the snake, and the snake bites the woman knowing that his bite is poisonous and the woman's going to die. She said, "Why did you do that? I saved you and now you gave me a fatal poisonous bite." The snake was like, "Yes, I'm a snake. That's what I do." Did you hear that story, and did the crowd respond?

Elijah: I didn't manage to get into the rally. I did see that on video, but I was about like 10 minutes away. If I'd come 10 minutes earlier, I would've gotten in, but he showed up before that. I can tell you that a huge number of the people in line who I was talking to and interacting with were immigrants, some of whom did not speak English or did not speak English well. Like a friend of mine who I was there with who is a Spanish speaker, was talking with a woman who took out her phone to show photos of her daughters. She's like, "All of my daughters," in Spanish, he translated for me, "are police officers, and they're all voting for Donald Trump."

I think there was a recognition from this crowd of mostly immigrants that they do side, or not mostly immigrants necessarily, but with a lot of people from immigrant backgrounds, that they're in favor of Trump despite or maybe because of his position on immigration.

Brian Lehrer: Elijah, thank you very much. I really appreciate you sharing your observations there. Call us again. We're going to take a break. We have a lot more really interesting callers lined up, more interesting thoughts from Eric Levitz's article on Vox. Stay with us.

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Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer on WNYC. A few more minutes with Eric Levitz, reporter for Vox who covers issues that fracture the left internally and fracture the right internally. He's covering the political campaigns, the presidential campaigns, and his latest article is called-- I'm looking at the headline again. Well, it's about the biggest mystery of the election season so far as the article frames it, which is the significant drop in poll after poll for Biden and support for Biden among Black voters, Latino voters, and voters under 30. Eric, that was a pretty interesting call before the break. Were you thinking anything during it that you wanted to say?

Eric Levitz: No, it was really great to get that caller. I think it's consistent with a lot of what we've seen at a macro level in terms of the polling. I think that one thing that I know that Democrats have been preoccupied with since 2020 when we saw a really pretty substantial shift of Latino voters, that is not a theoretical thing where, "Oh, we're seeing in the polls for the first time that there's a real shift among this traditional Democratic constituency, but we don't know yet whether it's just the polls or whether it's happened." That's already happened.

We've seen significant movement among Hispanic Americans, and I know Democrats have been preoccupied with the idea that the right has a bigger presence on Spanish-language media than Democrats want them to have and that Democrats need to get in the game there. There's definitely been some investment in that, but I think we are seeing something that-- this kind of irony in Republican politics where, on the one hand, they have a significant portion of their base, not everybody, but a significant portion that is invested in white identity politics, at least at some level, and votes and supports for politicians that convey a sense of hostility towards non-white immigrants.

At the same time, the non-white immigrants who are coming in, put their immigration status and ethnicity aside, their profile is very much the profile of a conservative voter in the aggregate. They're generally more religious than other Americans, generally a bit more socially conservative and agree with Republicans on a significant number of issues, and certainly, as that report suggested, often favor a more law and order approach to crime that Republicans have identified themselves with. There's, I think, always been some promise for Republicans with immigrant voters.

You saw George W. Bush tap into that in 2004. I believe he got-- I don't remember the exact number, but I think it was certainly over 40% of the Latino vote that year with his more compassionate conservatism. There was a belief among Republican elites and really among almost everybody that by nominating Donald Trump, Republicans were effectively deciding that they were going to gamble on really amping up their support among white voters, turning out low propensity white voters, and compensating for what were sure to be big losses among Hispanic voters by embracing this just overtly nativist politician.

It turned out that they actually could have their cake and eat it too in that sense, that they have actually been able to make significant inroads with Hispanics while running on this pretty nativist, pretty wide identity politics type of message. Then, that's one of the most important I think developments of the Trump era that has surprised I think almost everybody.

Brian Lehrer: Ricardo in West Nyack, you're on WNYC. Hi, Ricardo.

Ricardo: Hi. Good morning. How you guys doing today?

Brian Lehrer: Doing all right. Thank you for calling in. What you got?

Ricardo: I wasn't at the Trump rally, but I did catch a specific clip where he brought on two of my favorite musicians. They're rappers Sleepy Hallow and Sheff G. Of course, my first instinct is to pick at Trump saying, "Hey, these aren't the most popular rappers, but they're very popular amongst young Black voters." I think that was definitely a tactic to sway the Black vote, but at the same time, Trump doesn't even need to pull tactics like this anymore because in this information era, a lot of conservative thinking is pushing us to go for Trump. You got powerful speakers like Candace Owens who literally have fought against big corporations, and it seems as if it's all-- [crosstalk]

Brian Lehrer: A Black woman for people who don't know Candace Owens. Go ahead.

Ricardo: Yes. It seems as if a lot of the conservatives are fighting for "Black interest." I think a lot of young voters identify with that. I'm 36 years old myself, I'm a truck driver in West Nyack, and even now under Biden's politics, I'm living paycheck to paycheck. I don't think time is a fair distinction to say which presidency is treating you better economically because you can't just go back in time when things were a lot cheaper. I have to be fair about inflation, but at the same time, Biden didn't give any stimulus checks out, and we're currently giving billions to Ukraine. It just seems as if America interest are second.

Of course, Trump is saying all these things and it sounds good, but at this point, it's like comparing apples to oranges. We like the promises better than the reality that we're experiencing.

Brian Lehrer: Where are you? Are you undecided? Sounds like you're at least considering Trump, or are you just describing people you know?

Ricardo: I wouldn't say I'm all the way forward Trump because as you guys were talking about a social distrust and a political distrust, when we're hearing a lot of left talking points, they always seem to be poking at Trump. That's automatically going to maybe have you cheering for the underdog. If someone's talking points are always, "Trump is the bad guy, Trump is the bad guy, Trump is the bad guy," you're going to start thinking, hey, maybe you guys are the bad guy, because every news company is talking about how bad this guy is, except one, obviously Fox News, but I've stopped tuning into the news.

I happened to catch you guys today. I was reluctantly tuned in and you guys fired me up politically this morning.

Brian Lehrer: Well, that's good.

Ricardo: I'm [inaudible 00:37:49] [crosstalk]

Brian Lehrer: Keep listening as you drive around. You're undecided. Let me follow up on one of the things you said and get your impression of it because the news coverage on Sheff G and Sleepy Hallow pointed to a particular contradiction. For example, I have this USA Today story up. It says, "After promising to restore safety to New York City Streets, Trump featured a rapper Sheff G who is facing attempted murder charges brought by the Brooklyn District Attorney last year." Then, it goes on to describe Sleepy Hallow too, other charges in connection with the same gang take down.

How does any of that strike you or how do you think it might have struck the crowd?

Ricardo: The thing is this, hip hop has always been based on storytelling. It's a lot of stories of the street, and a lot of these things are brought on because of poverty and situations to navigate through poverty. One of the situations to navigate through poverty obviously is becoming violent when people are just fed up. If we go back to the Civil War, even the American Revolution, people were fed up. No taxation without representation. What did they do? They took up arms and they became violent. Violence is always a response to very tough situations.

Unfortunately, in this music that we have in hip hop, it is very celebrated, these violent acts, and it's a giant contradiction. I'm not for that. I'm definitely not supporting violence at all, but we do have to understand that to be American at times is also to be violent because if we didn't rebel against the British Empire, we wouldn't even have our "free country" now, but yes.

Brian Lehrer: Ricardo, let me jump because we're running out of time in the segment, but I really appreciate your call. Thank you very much. I hope you keep listening as you're driving in your truck, and feel free to please call us again.

Ricardo: Absolutely. Thank you very much for having me.

Brian Lehrer: Thank you very much. Well, there's another really interesting call. Eric, we're almost out of time. Even though we're running over and our next guest is patiently waiting, I have to ask you the inflation policy question hat was the centerpiece of one of your earlier articles, but anything you want to say real quick after hearing Ricardo? I know, listeners, there are many things that many of you might take issue with with things that he said. That's his point of view. Eric, anything on that briefly?

Eric Levitz: No. I really appreciated Ricardo's thoughts. I think that he speaks for a significant portion of the electorate, which as you heard there, is not fully in either camp right now, but certainly not enthusiastic about supporting Biden and potentially negatively polarizing against there's so much negativity about Trump. I do think that one thing I might want to say, which I think ties into the inflation conversation, is that I think that lost in a lot of the dialogue is the actual hard facts about economic policy and the choices facing Americans.

I believe he did say that Biden never send out any stimulus checks, which is not true. In early 2021, he sent out $1,400 checks to Americans throughout the country. Every Republican in Congress voted against those checks. Just important to make clear what the choices are.

Brian Lehrer: Let's end on that, because if inflation is more of a salient voting issue than many other things that we might talk about, according to these polls, we should mention that you also have an article called Trump's Team Keeps Promising to Increase Inflation. It's a sarcastic headline. What are you trying to blow the whistle on there, in contrast to the polls that show voters trust Trump more than Biden to control prices? I'm just going to list it because we're so over time already. I'm going to do your list. You sarcastically describe a four-point plan that Trump has for making your life less affordable, as you put it.

One, reduce the value of the US dollar. Two, apply a 10% tariff on all imported goods. Three, enact massive deficit finance tax cuts, and shrink the American labor force by deporting millions of undocumented immigrants. That deportation was number four, shrinking the workforce. Would you say each of those things has a certain populist appeal? "Yes, tariffs. Yes, deport the illegals. Yes, tax cuts, even if it increases the deficit." Certain populist appeal, while actually being inflationary. We have 30 seconds for a last response.

Eric Levitz: Yes, sure. As you say, these policies, Trump's tariff plan would directly increase by 10% the prices of every good made overseas. That's every single foreign-made good. Your television, washing machine you buy, would be, if he enacts this policy, 10% more expensive. Then, as you say, another big aspect of it is mass deportation isn't just a humanitarian issue, but if you abruptly deport most of the agricultural labor force in the country, or a significant chunk of it, you're going to have shortages and more expensive food.

Brian Lehrer: Thank you very much. Really interesting article on Vox. Listeners, if you don't know Eric Levitz's work, a lot of really interesting articles on Vox. Thank you for coming on today. Let's talk again.

Eric Levitz: Thanks for having me.

 

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