Title: The Ad War in the Mayoral Primary

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Brian Lehrer: It's the Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC. Good morning, everyone, and happy Juneteenth. Later in the show, we'll have the poet and playwright Carl Hancock Rux with themes from Lincoln Center's annual Juneteenth celebration, which pays tribute this year to enslaved people's use of folklore to survive the trauma of the transatlantic slave trade. Also, WNYC's Nancy Solomon today with excerpts from her Ask Governor Murphy call-in and her take on the New Jersey governor's race now in the general election phase, even as New York City remains at the height of primary season. That's where we start.

We'll jump right back into the New York City mayoral primary now. We are at the halfway point of voting season, with last Saturday, five days ago, being day one, and primary day itself next Tuesday being five days from now. By the way, my weather app says the high temperature for Tuesday is supposed to be 100 degrees. I've seen high 90s before, but never actually the number 100 on a weather app in New York City. Maybe another reason to vote early, right? Who knows if it is that extreme outside that day, whether it will depress turnout or depress turnout among certain demographics, maybe older people, and influence the results.

In this segment, we'll talk about the competition for a few different voting blocs through the positions the candidates are taking and emphasizing, and through samples from the advertising for and against the major candidates, as the end game messaging is getting pretty tough. We will include the top four candidates in the polling: Cuomo, Mamdani, Lander, and Adrienne Adams. We know from the polls and we know from our phones that plenty of voters are making up your minds last minute, still a big enough bloc of indecisive voters to be decisive to the outcome, so the end game is mattering.

I'll play a few of these campaign commercials right now. Then we'll open the phones with a specific question for today and bring on our guests who will be Jeff Mays, political reporter for The New York Times, and Juan Manuel Benitez, formerly of NY1 and NY1 Noticias, now a professor of local journalism at Columbia and a member of a coalition of journalists that calls itself the New York Editorial Board. They are not endorsing a candidate, by the way. Let's hear some of these campaign commercials. Here's an example of how the Andrew Cuomo campaign started communicating with voters in his first video, released about a month ago, positive messaging about himself in a campaign commercial.

Promoter 1: It was the greatest health crisis in our history, and when New Yorkers were desperate for leadership, Andrew Cuomo delivered. He didn't just provide information in those daily COVID briefings, he acted, building emergency hospitals and deploying first responders. He provided hope that we'd pull through this together. We did. Now, New Yorkers face a city unaffordable and streets that don't feel safe. In a crisis, you want someone who's delivered for us before. Paid for by Cuomo for NYC.

Brian: There was that Cuomo ad about himself, not an attack ad. It was similar with this commercial for Zohran Mamdani introducing his vision in a positive spot.

Zohran Mamdani: There is a myth about this city. It's the lie that life has to be hard in New York. I believe we can guarantee cheaper groceries. We can raise the minimum wage. We can freeze the rent for more than 2 million tenants and build hundreds of thousands of affordable homes. It's city government's job to deliver that. We are done settling for less. Are you ready for a city we can afford? Are you ready to win this race?

Promoter 2: Paid for by Zohran for NYC.

Brian: Zohran Mamdani from one of his recent spots. We'll get to Brad Lander and Adrienne Adams next. Then how the messaging between Cuomo and Mamdani has become much more critical. Let's bring on our guests, Jeff Mays, political reporter for The New York Times, and Juan Manuel Benitez, formerly of NY1 and NY1 Noticias, now a professor of local journalism at the Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism and a member of a coalition of journalists that calls itself the New York Editorial Board. Hi, Jeff. Hi, Juan Manuel. Welcome back to WNYC.

Jeff: Hey, thanks for having me.

Juan Manuel: Hi, Brian.

Brian: Jeff, you had an article on Sunday that described campaign events for both Cuomo and Mamdani, that highlighted who their political bases seem to be. Can you give our listeners a short version of that? Where were they, and what were those settings and audiences? What did they say about the campaigns?

Jeff: Sure. I think Governor Cuomo was at the National Action Network in Harlem, which Reverend Al Sharpton, that's his organization, his civil rights organization. He gave a speech basically talking about how he was the most experienced candidate that could help New Yorkers in what he believes is a difficult time. Him being there was indicative of the fact that he is doing very well with Black voters, at least according to this recent Marist Poll, has a good percentage, I believe it's 42%, 48% of Black voters are supporting him. It made sense that he was in Harlem giving out that message.

Then on the same day, you had Zohran Mamdani, who really had this huge rally at Terminal 5 on the west side of Manhattan, where he had Kid Mero, this popular comedian, was the emcee. He had Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who introduced him, and just a full-packed house of what looked like a lot of young people who were supporting his campaign. You really saw the contrast there, and who the audience is for both Mr. Cuomo and Mr. Mamdani.

Brian: Juan Manuel, Jeff referred to the new Marist Poll that just came out yesterday, showing Cuomo still in the lead, but Mamdani closer than he's been in past polls. I want to read a couple of lines of the Times' description of the results, and then get your take on a part of this. It says, "Cuomo has maintained his lead largely on the strength of his support among three groups, Black voters," as Jeff just mentioned, "women, and voters over 45, who are among the most reliable blocs in a Democratic primary.

"Over the same period, Mr. Mamdani rose from being the first choice of 18% of likely voters to 27%. He does best among likely voters who are "very liberal," self-identified that way, "and under 45, but also roughly doubled his support among Latino New Yorkers, narrowly surpassing Mr. Cuomo with that group."

Can you talk some about the Latino vote, which of course is many different groups of voters in various communities that you've covered closely for years? For example, the fact that young Latino men, as much for Donald Trump as they did last year, was one of the main stories in that election. How would you begin to describe what various Latino communities and their members are looking for in this primary, and why it's so close between Mamdani and Cuomo?

Juan Manuel: Yes, Brian. There's a couple of problems with that Marist Poll. The number one problem is that it's a little old. It happened early June when they conducted the poll, before the second debate that we saw on television, and also before the arrest of another candidate, New York City Comptroller Brad Lander, arrested by ICE agents at Immigration Court a couple of days ago.

Brian: Also, just to add to that context, it was before Lander and Mamdani cross-endorsed each other.

Juan Manuel: Correct. The other thing is that even though Latino New Yorkers are almost a third of the population of the city of New York, Marist, their poll sampled Latinos at about 25%, if I'm not mistaken. In the end, when it comes to elections and when it comes to voting, Latino New Yorkers tend to be like around 15% of the electorate. They might have oversampled Latino voters in that poll. What we saw in that poll, though, is that the support for Mamdani keeps growing among New York City Democrats. He's getting a lot of support from progressives, from young voters.

At the same time, you have the establishment candidate in Andrew Cuomo. When it comes to the Latino community, it's going to be whether someone like Congressman Adriano Espaillat is able to deliver enough votes in upper Manhattan and in some parts of the Bronx. The same with the State Senator Jessica Ramos, who endorsed Andrew Cuomo, even though she is also on the ballot for this primary for mayor, whether she can get some votes in some neighborhoods in Queens.

On the other hand, you have Congresswoman Nydia Velázquez, who endorsed Zohran Mamdani, whether she can deliver some votes in parts of Manhattan, Queens, and Brooklyn, where her district is. Also, Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso, who also endorsed Mamdani, who is running for re-election as Brooklyn Borough President. There's an incentive there for Reynoso to campaign actively and heavily, not only for the candidate for mayor of his choice, but also for his own re-election in Brooklyn. It's all about how many voters are going to come out for early voting this week, and also on Tuesday, like you said, that it's going to be an extremely hot day in New York City.

Brian: Jeff, anything to add to what Juan Manuel was saying, or anything else on the demographic strengths and weaknesses identified in the Marist Poll, or maybe oversampled in the Marist Poll?

Jeff: Look, I think that it is very difficult to win a Democratic primary in the city without the support of voters of color. I think even if the numbers were oversampled, potentially, the fact that Mr. Mamdani, who was not well known at all before this campaign-- He was an assemblyman in his historic district in Queens, and not well known outside of that. The fact that he has been able to make gains in those populations is very telling. I think his focus, too, has really been on a lot of young voters and energizing that base.

He has a huge team of campaign volunteers who are out knocking on doors. You saw that at the event Saturday, just a lot of energy, a lot of young people in the crowd. I also think it's interesting, and the poll didn't address this at all, I wrote about this a bit, is that what Mr. Mamdani is really trying to do is really expand the electorate. He has focused on Muslim voters. He is a Muslim. There's about 350,000 registered Muslim voters in New York City, and he's looking to activate that base.

He, since almost the beginning of the campaign, has spent a lot of time at mosques, at Yemeni coffee shops around the city, and is really looking to get into that Muslim base, also that South Asian vote, which has been powerful, and some recent city council elections that we've seen as well. I think it's fascinating his strategy of trying to expand the electorate. I think, in some ways, I've heard comparisons of him to Barack Obama in that way, and that being his path to victory.

Mr. Cuomo has a long history with especially Black voters in the city. He's just very well known because of his father and also because of his terms as governor as well. He is really digging into the traditional trenches of support for the Democratic primary, whereas Mr. Mamdani is really out trying to expand the electorate, trying to bring new people out to vote into the race.

Brian: Now, listeners, already this week, we've had specific call-ins for undecided voters, for voters backing any candidate, and for callers to rank your top three issues, as opposed to top three or five candidates. Today, in this segment, we'll invite anybody who Jeff was just describing. Let's say if you're a first-time voter, or new to mayoral politics, this could be because you just turned 18, and this is your first vote, or this could be because you're just from a community that Jeff was identifying, or just for you as an individual haven't voted before, so you certainly can call in.

I also want to ask this question, this invitation for anyone. If you've made up your mind, are you voting more for a candidate or more against a candidate, with there being so much criticism of both Cuomo and Mamdani out there? If you're still undecided, how much, similarly, is it about being drawn to different candidates for their best qualities as you see them, or deciding whether to avoid certain candidates for what turns you off to them? 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692. A few choices there. I think it's clear enough. I'll say it again.

If you've made up your mind, are you voting more for a candidate or more against a candidate, with there being so much criticism of both Cuomo and Mamdani? If you're still undecided, similarly, how much is it about being drawn to different candidates for their best qualities, or deciding whether to avoid certain candidates for what might turn you off to one and another? 212-433-WNYC, and any first-time voters, 212-433-9692, plus any questions you want to ask our guests.

Jeff Mays, political reporter for the New York Times, and Juan Manuel Benitez, formerly of NY1 and NY1 Noticias, now a professor of local journalism at Columbia, and a member of an independent coalition of journalists that calls itself the New York Editorial Board. Call or text, 212-433-WNYC, 433-9692.

Let's go back to campaign advertising. We heard Cuomo and Mamdani spots. Here's a Brad Lander commercial. Now, picture the visual here, because this is radio. You have to picture it in your head. Maybe you've seen it on TV or online. It's Lander on the fast-moving Coney Island roller coaster, the Cyclone.

Brad Lander: New York City feels like this a lot lately. It's been a wild ride, but it won't change if we just swap Eric Adams for corrupt Andrew Cuomo. Brad Lander has served through the ups and downs, fighting corruption, ending wasteful government spending, building affordable housing, taking on Trump and Musk when they stole $80 million from New Yorkers, and keeping his cool. New York City is a ride in itself. Buckle up, remain seated, and vote for Brad Lander. Paid for by Lander 2025.

Brian: There's that Brad Lander spot. If that one highlighted the dramatic turns and plunges of a roller coaster ride, this one for Adrienne Adams recalls a phrase we used to hear about President Obama. Remember when some people would call him, No-drama Obama? Here's Adrienne Adams.

Adrienne Adams: In New York City, we know drama, but as city council speaker, I rise above it. I stopped the mayor's cuts to pre-K and libraries. I sued and blocked Trump from putting ICE on Rikers. Now I'm running for mayor, not for power or praise, but for my children and for yours, for affordability, for safety, for justice. I'm Adrienne Adams, and I'm in it for us.

Promoter 3: Paid for by Adrienne for the people.

Brian: An Adrienne Adams campaign commercial. Juan Manuel, what do you think about those spots from the candidates who have been polling third and fourth in the context of a race that's been largely about the two frontrunners?

Juan Manuel: I think they are very smart commercials, and in other election cycles could have worked extremely well. You have someone like Comptroller Lander being the calm person around people who are basically freaking out on the ride, on the roller coaster. At the same time, you have Adrienne Adams showing that she is responsible and she is a good person, managing government and listening to people. However, for whatever reason, obviously because of name recognition and also a very smart social media campaign, Andrew Cuomo and Zohran Mamdani have attracted most of the attention this election cycle.

One, because he's the known entity, the manager, the establishment, coming back at a time in which many New Yorkers feel the city is not doing well. Then you have someone like Mamdani energizing young progressives with new ideas, even though he has a very thin resume. A lot of progressive voters are willing to take a chance on him and his ideas, even though he's not really offering a very credible way to achieve them. The other candidates, I do believe that there is a very strong field of candidates. I have to disagree with The New York Times, I'm so sorry, Jeff, because The New York Times, in an op-ed, they claim that [crosstalk]

Brian: Just to clarify that Jeff is a reporter-

Juan Manuel: I know.

Brian: -and you're talking about an editorial that the Editorial Board released, just keeping that distinction.

Jeff: Yes, we need a little civic education. There is a wall between the journalism side and the opinion side.

Juan Manuel: Totally, totally. The opinion side believes that the choices are not that great. I do believe that there is a strong field of candidates in a Democratic primary, people with a lot of years of experience, like Brad Lander or even Scott Stringer, Zellnor Myrie, Adrienne Adams. You do have a strong field of candidates, even though the two still in the spotlight this year are definitely Andrew Cuomo and Zohran Mamdani.

Brian: One thing I just want to throw in about Lander while we're keeping the record straight, in our segment on the Candidates and Public Health earlier in the week, our guest said that Mamdani was the only one who was against forcing retirees among the New York City municipal workers into Medicare Advantage and off traditional Medicare, and several people have gotten in touch to say no. It's true of Lander as well. This is from his campaign site. It says, "Brad will fight to improve health care coverage, ensure low deductibles and premiums, protect New Yorkers with pre-existing conditions, and prevent city retirees from being forced onto inferior Medicare Advantage plans." Just a factual correction, to be fair.

Jeff, picking up on where Juan Manuel left off, are they trying, Lander and Adams, to run as the Goldilocks candidates? Maybe one way to put it to the theme of our call-in question on policy and or on personality and the kinds of experience they've had, I've got what you like best about Mamdani and what you like best about Cuomo without the things you don't like about either.

Jeff: First, I just want to give Brad props for riding the Cyclone. I was told he rode that 16 times-

[laughter]

Brian: Wow.

Jeff: -to get that [crosstalk].

Brian: To record that video. Wow.

Jeff: Someone who grew up in Coney Island and who has ridden the Cyclone for the last time because it hurts, you got to give the guy credit for that. I think what that ad speaks to, and I think what Adrienne Adams' ad speaks to, is that they have both been trying to make a similar argument. Brad has been trying to say he is the adult in the room. He has the experience. He's the auditor of the city's finances. He controls the pension funds, for example. He understands how city government works. He's deeply involved, intricately involved. He has stood up to Mayor Adams on certain issues.

I think Adrienne Adams basically is making that same argument. The no-drama is really how she's described herself. She's tried to say that her experience as city council speaker during the Eric Adams administration, where she has had to fight him on a number of issues, for example, cuts to libraries. She recently sued to stop ICE from establishing an office on Rikers Island, for example. Both of them are making the argument to voters that they have the experience. It's interesting because that is Governor Cuomo's argument.

He has executive experience as the former governor of the state, given that he's completed several major projects, like you look at the airport and a couple of bridges. His argument is that New York is in trouble. It's really a critique of Eric Adams' administration, that the city is a little listless and needs help. Things are going in the wrong direction. Governor Cuomo saying he can bring it back.

What Brad and Adrienne are saying is, "Look, we don't have that baggage that Governor Cuomo has. We haven't been accused of mismanaging the pandemic or the sexual harassment allegations that forced the former governor to resign as well." Their argument has been one of experience, but it's a difficult argument to make because they both struggled with name recognition. Whereas Governor Cuomo came out and had that almost 100% name recognition, it's been an easier argument for him to make.

Brian: One thing about Adrienne Adams, she seems to be running the least policy-specific campaign. Tell me if you think I have an incorrect impression. From watching her in the debates, and I scoured her campaign website for this, the least policy-specific, other than to say, I've been leading city council for everything it's done the last four years, and that would be a lot of policies. How would you describe her campaign in this respect?

Jeff: I do think she has been light on a lot of the policy proposals compared to Brad Lander, for example, who has tons of policy proposals on his website. She hasn't had any sort of huge policies. Her policies on crime and other issues are mostly in line with some of the stuff she's tried to do as city council speaker, supporting working class New Yorkers, supporting mothers, Black maternal health, those sort of issues that she's delved into. I think she got into the race very late. She was the last major candidate to hop into the race.

When Eric Adams, because of his federal corruption indictment, I think she was viewed as an attractive option, as someone who has helped steady the city leadership during a time when the mayor was facing a very serious federal indictment, where she stood up to him on certain issues, got certain services restored. I think the focus of her campaign has been that, has been her leadership, how she will lead. I think she's trusting that voters will say the policies that she has will be in line with that sort of trusted leadership. It's been a difficult argument to make. She's got in late. She has not necessarily risen as far in the polls. The Marist Poll has her in, I believe, fourth place.

Brian: Let's get to some of our, are you voting for someone or more against someone callers. Mike in Flatbush, you're on WNYC. Hi, Mike.

Mike: Hi, Brian. Thank you for taking my call. I'll give you a for and an against. In terms of for, I'm voting for Zohran. I think that the idea of the adults in the room makes me think of a phrase, "the poverty of low expectations." We've already had a number of rent freezes. We need another one. There are a million rent-stabilized apartments in the city. His policies just seem to be most in line with what I would like to see happen. I don't think that New York City is listless. I think that most people just are not able to afford it.

Against, I'm voting against in the comptroller race, Justin Brannan, who also did an ad at Coney Island, which is interesting because my understanding, correct me if I'm wrong, but there's a PAC that's supporting him that's funded by Thor Equities. He voted for the rezoning to get a casino built there, which, to my understanding is residents do not want in Coney Island. I'm voting against him and for Zohran. Thank you very much for taking my call. I appreciate it.

Brian: Mike, thank you very much. Can either of you confirm that tidbit about Justin Brannan if we can detour to the comptroller's race for just a second? Are you on it enough to know that specific about a vote with respect to the casino? Jeff, are you?

Jeff: No, I don't have that particular answer. I know Justin Brannan has said he is open to the idea of a casino. His argument has been that it's largely in the state's hands whether a casino gets placed and that, as a politician, he should be at least open to the idea to try to extract benefits from the community. I think previously he had been more opposed to the idea, but that has shifted.

Brian: All right. We'll try to look that up even more specifically. That's one for and against. David in Borough Park has a different one. David, you're on WNYC. Thanks for calling in.

David: Hi. Good morning, Brian. How are you?

Brian: Good. Thank you.

David: Thank you for taking my call. I'm voting against Zohran Mamdani. I feel a liberal, plus being young, is just going to equal failure. I just feel he's not going to be able to get anywhere. He never handled even a big business, even a small business, and he just doesn't have that capabilities by any sense.

Brian: Thank you very much. We'll get another one. Willa in Brooklyn, you're on WNYC. Hello, Willa.

Willa: Hello. I at this point am voting absolutely against Cuomo, given the nature of our national politics. I feel that we have no safeguards at this point against Trump, and in order to establish that and preserve that, Cuomo is not in the best interest of New Yorkers.

Brian: Thank you very much. We'll keep going with other candidates being named here. How about Joe in Manhattan? You're on WNYC. Hi, Joe.

Joe: Hi. I voted for Scott Stringer. He's held every major position for New York City, and he's been outstanding. He's been a legislator, borough of Manhattan, and comptroller, and done outstandingly in each of his positions.

Brian: Joe, thank you very much. All right. We'll take more of your calls as we continue. Specifically, when we continue in a minute, we'll get to examples of the more bitter endgame campaigning by and for Cuomo and Mamdani and some of the finances of that. Stay with us.

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Brian: Brian Lehrer on WNYC, as we're discussing the Democratic primary for mayor of New York-- There is no meaningful Republican primary, by the way, which is why we're not also talking about that. With our guests, Jeff Mays, political reporter for The New York Times, and Juan Manuel Benitez, formerly of NY1 and NY1 Noticias, now a professor of local journalism at the Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism and a member of a coalition of journalists that calls itself a New York Editorial Board.

Some more voting for somebody or voting against somebody, listener writes, "Voting against Mamdani for Cuomo. In these difficult times, we need someone who can get various groups to work together, including Muslims and Jews. Mamdani will divide the city," according to that listener. Another one writes, "Typing this with my Andrew Cuomo voting mother sitting beside me at the last second. I put Zellnor Myrie first, but I refuse to rank Cuomo. I trust Zellnor and Adrienne Adams and feel comfortable they will have Zohran in their administration rather than the other way around, dream, baby, dream." We could keep going, and we will keep going with more voting for or voting against combinations.

All right. We heard a campaign commercial from each of the top four, and now we'll play an example of the strongly worded anti-Mamdani advertising that a pro-Cuomo super PAC is trying to close with and a response video that Mamdani released. This pro-Cuomo super PAC is called Fix the City. They're sending out very anti-Mamdani mailers and social media and TV videos like this.

Promoter 4: Listen to Zohran Mamdani.

Zohran Mamdani: I was quite open to what would be considered being a radical from a very young age.

Promoter 4: What will that mean for us? Mamdani actually wants to move the homeless into our subway stations. That's cruel to the homeless and dangerous for us. Mamdani also promises to defund the police and called for the NYPD to be dismantled.

Zohran Mamdani: Would be considered being eradicated.

Promoter 4: That's radically wrong. Zohran Mamdani, a risk New York can't afford. Paid for by Fix the City.

Brian: Paid for by Fix the City. That's a pro-Cuomo super PAC that we'll talk about in a minute. They're also sending out flyers like this one that says, "We can't trust Iran Mamdani to keep New York safe," as its big headline. Another one with the big headline saying, "Zohran Mamdani's actions raise serious concerns for Jewish New Yorkers." Getting that specific for one group of New Yorkers. Here's a one-minute video that Mamdani released intended to respond to the Fix the City blitz.

Zohran Mamdani: We're so close to election day, but believe it or not, the hardest days of this race are yet to come, because right now, Andrew Cuomo and his billionaire allies are spending millions of dollars to try and defeat our movement. Cuomo's super PAC has dumped $5 million in the last week alone, lying about me and my policies, and there's at least another $5 million coming. For the next nine days, you won't be able to turn on your TV, check your mail, or even watch a YouTube video without seeing them.

If you look at the box at the bottom of those ads, you'll see who's bankrolling them: billionaires and corporations. The same people who put Donald Trump back in the White House are now trying to elect Andrew Cuomo. They're spending all this money for a very simple reason. Corporations don't want to pay just a little bit more in taxes to make a better city for all of us. The landlord lobby knows I'm going to freeze your rent, and Trump's donors know I will actually fight this authoritarian regime.

How do we fight back? Through our most powerful tool? You. That's why in these final days, I'm asking you to knock on as many doors as you can, and what's that? For our out-of-state friends, we're asking you to make as many phone calls as possible. You have the power to set the record straight. These next few days are going to be a fight, but it's one worth having and one we can win together.

Brian: After hearing both of those spots, Juan Manuel, why is the campaign ending like this?

Juan Manuel: The establishment, not only of the Democratic Party, but also in the city of people with a lot of money, they're scared that Mamdani could become mayor of the city, and with his very progressive socialist ideas. One thing that I can tell you, Brian, is that the New York Editorial Board, we've interviewed every major candidate, not only for mayor, but also for comptroller and for public advocate. The only candidate, major candidate who didn't sit down with us, 10 reporters asking questions, also academics, and then releasing the transcripts on our substack, the New York Editorial Board, and releasing the audio conversation of our breakfasts with all these candidates.

The only candidate who didn't want to sit with us because he canceled and then he couldn't reschedule was former Governor Andrew Cuomo, who didn't find the time to sit down with us. What I can say is that Zohran Mamdani, sure, people can say that his resume is really thin, that he doesn't have any management experience, and some of his ideas might be a little bit out of the norm for Democratic politics, and also in New York City.

At the same time, he is a very charismatic young progressive, and that is energizing the progressive wing and young wing of the Democratic Party in the city, and that is going to give us right now, him and Andrew Cuomo, the first round of two most likely because both candidates, Cuomo and Mamdani, are expected to be on the ballot also in November, no matter who wins the Democratic Party.

Brian: Because they may each have another line. The Working Families Party, if Cuomo wins the Democratic nomination, says they will put up a candidate, which could be Mamdani or it could be Brad Lander. Those are their top two. We will still have to see about that. If Mamdani or Lander win the primary, then Cuomo has said that he will run in November on an independent line.

As we've discussed here before, it's going to be at least a four-way race. Plus, there's another, more minor independent candidate named Jim Walden, but it's probably going to be Cuomo either way, Mamdani or Lander either way, Eric Adams as an independent either way, and the Republican, Curtis Sliwa. Watch this space because if it's intense now, it's going to be at least as intense in September and October, and I guess every day starting after the primary.

On the defund the police messaging, Jeff, to be clear, to fact check, to say what is and what isn't, there were a number of candidates around 2020 who are now in this race, certainly Lander, as well as Mamdani, who were saying, defund the police. Now, most of the Democrats are saying, add to the police more police officers. There are too many vacancies on the police officers. It's been hard to get recruits to even apply, and so they're down from their traditional high or the numbers that they were at a few years ago. Jeff, correct me if I'm wrong, where I see Mamdani threading the needle is he says, "I am not for defunding the police. I'm for working with the police," but he's not for adding, and that's actually a distinction between him and the other leading Democrats. Is that accurate?

Jeff: Yes, I think what he's proposed is a Department of Community Safety that will deal with quality of life issues, things like mentally ill people on the subway. His idea is that having those folks deal with those issues will then free police up to focus on more serious crime. I think if you look back at what they defund movement actually said, their argument was, let's spend less money on police and let's take that money, let's put it into other areas like housing, education, health care, things that we know reduce some of the crime in the city as opposed to spending that money on policing, which will then make the police's job a little bit easier.

Mr. Cuomo, as part of being the moderate Democrat, has said that the city defunded the police, which isn't entirely true. There was a call to cut $1 billion from the budget that was never really fully realized. This was in the wake of the protests over the murder of George Floyd. Yes, there was a movement amongst the city council and some city leaders to cut money from police budget and then utilize in other areas of the city.

Brian: Juan Manuel, are these Fix the City mailers and TV and social media commercials being distributed so much, that's the pro-Cuomo super PAC, because of Michael Bloomberg's infusion of at least $5 million into the Cuomo endgame?

Juan Manuel: That as well, but we have to remember that even though we have very strong campaign finance laws in New York City that also allow for lesser known candidates to run a credible campaign, we also have super PACs, super PACs that are getting money from very wealthy individuals in the city and outside of the city that are pouring a lot of money into the race and paying for a lot of commercials like this one. Normally, these very well-financed super PACs, they try to elect established candidate, and in this election, that established candidate is Andrew Cuomo.

It reminds us a lot to the Hillary Clinton versus Bernie Sanders campaign or Joe Biden versus Bernie Sanders primary as well. You have the establishment candidate with more middle-of-the-ground ideas and policies, and then you have the insurgent leftist candidate energizing a very significant wing of the Democratic Party, but falls short at the end, doesn't really get enough votes to take that person to the top. It's going to be voter turnout. Who is going to turn out in this election? Who's turning out right now in this election to see who wins, whether Andrew Cuomo, Zohran Mamdani, or we have another surprise with another candidate with this ranked-choice voting system.

We're going to have to wait until Tuesday. The one thing that is clear that is these two candidates have gathered or garnered most of the attention not only because of name recognition and also because of this flashy social media ads, but also because they picked a very specific lane, the affordability and housing lane for Mamdani, and the management and steady leadership and safety, that lane going for Andrew Cuomo. That's why I do believe it's been so hard for other candidates to claim some attention in this very crowded Democratic primary. Other candidates like Scott Stringer, like the caller was saying earlier, someone with a lot of experience, hasn't been able to really break through this time in this election cycle.

Brian: Jeff, how much, based on your reporting, do you think the Middle East, or how that spills over into New York as a safety issue or a free speech issue, antisemitism, Islamophobia issue is a factor for a lot of voters? We certainly saw it reflected in one of those Fix the City flyers that I referenced. Mamdani has said, but it's not a New York City governing issue, that he would prefer Israel not exist as a Jewish state because he doesn't support any country existing with guaranteed power for one religious or ethnic group, rather a pluralistic democracy.

On the other hand, Cuomo has signed up to be on the Netanyahu defense team as a lawyer, according to the lawyer Alan Dershowitz, who wrote a piece in the Wall Street Journal saying Cuomo had signed on to defend against charges of war crimes. Even a lot of people who might support Israel as a Jewish state might not be thrilled with what Netanyahu is doing in the War in Gaza. I don't know how it plays. I know there's a lot of publicity around it, maybe too much publicity around it. We have not dwelled on it here, as opposed to actual New York City affordability and public safety and education and so forth issues. What's your sense of how much this is going to drive the results?

Jeff: I think this issue of Israel, the war in Gaza, antisemitism has really been used as a wedge issue. Governor Cuomo called antisemitism in a city that has issues with housing, transit affordability. He called antisemitism the most important issue in the mayor's race at one point. He accused three of his opponents of being antisemitic for various reasons.

Brian: Three of his opponents?

Jeff: Three of his opponents. Mr. Mamdani, he accused of being antisemitic for his positions on the Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions movement and for whether the war in Gaza is a genocide or not. He called Ms. Adams antisemitic because she hadn't traveled to Israel as the city council speaker. Also, Brad Lander has some sort of liberal views on the conflict in Gaza, has also been supportive of Palestinian rights. Three people he called antisemitic.

As we've seen, the ads that have come out against Mr. Mamdani, one recently with him wearing a kurta, which is the traditional Islamic long shirt. There was an incident where Fix the City-- I don't think the ad was actually released, but there was an incident where it appeared that Mr. Mamdani's beard had been thickened, for example. This has become a major issue in this race.

New York City has the largest Jewish population outside of Israel, and the city has a long history of relationship with Israel. Just every mayor since about 1951 has made a trip to Jerusalem. Eric Adams made a trip in 2023 as well. You see Mr. Cuomo using this as an issue to attack Mr. Mamdani. He's been aided by Whitney Tilson, who another candidate in the race, a former hedge fund manager, who has said that Mr. Mamdani's positions on Israel actually help stoke antisemitism are disqualifying. He recently released an ad telling voters not to vote for Mr. Mamdani, partially for that reason.

I think what you see, though, still is that Mr. Mamdani still has significant support among Jewish voters. According to a poll, I think last month, he was in third place with Jewish voters, right behind Brad Lander as well. Whether this attack will be effective, I don't know yet. It does look like that Mr. Mamdani is maintaining some support amongst Jewish voters, but there certainly has been a very strong attempt to take his positions on Israel, on the war in Gaza, on support for Palestinians, and turn that into a negative.

I know a lot of Jewish leaders that I spoke with, some agree that they think Mr. Mamdani's positions are untenable, but other people are upset that this is being used as an issue. They feel in some ways that antisemitism is being used unfairly to brand candidates in a way that actually takes away from the seriousness that Jewish people face attacks that they face in the city.

Brian: Yes. Some of the texts coming in, one person writes, "For me, as a Jewish New Yorker, I'm terrified. If Mamdani gets the job, I feel I need to leave. Everything that's too extreme brings hate." Someone else, "I'm 74 and will vote for Mamdani, will not put Cuomo on my ballot. I saw the very negative Cuomo ad on TV against Iran. I had to Google Fix the City to find out who was behind it, and then saw it was Cuomo." It was actually technically Cuomo supporters.

Here's a text for you, Juan Manuel. It says, on the topic of negative ads, "On Spanish language channels, the anti-Mamdani ads paid by Cuomo backpacks have been so nasty and aggressive. I have a feeling they think they can get away with being more hateful in Spanish than in English. I suspect you have your eyes on these." Would you confirm the listener's suspicion?

Juan Manuel: Yes. That's also a very traditional way of doing these commercials because when it comes to Spanish language commercials, when things get negative in campaigns, those commercials tend to be way more negative than they are in English because they go under the radar of the mainstream press or the mainstream opinion makers in the city. What I would say, also going with what Jeff was talking about, I do believe that the Israel-Palestine issue is huge right now in the city, like it is all over the world, because of the war in Gaza.

At the end of the day, there are a lot of Jewish New Yorkers who feel extremely passionate about protecting Israel. They are, many of them, Democratic voters, and they are going to vote for Andrew Cuomo because they believe that that's a candidate that is going to have their back.

On the other hand, a mainstream idea right now, mainstream opinion among young progressives, is that basically the war in Gaza has been way extreme, and they are defenders of Palestinian rights. We've seen that sentiment across college campuses, including Columbia University, my own. I do believe that right now the progressive wing of the Democratic Party doesn't share that traditional idea of supporting Israel, no matter what, that has dominated in the past mainstream politics in the city and within the Democratic Party.

Brian: They say mayors of New York, because of the extremely diverse and international population here, need to have foreign policies, not just urban policies. I guess we're certainly seeing that as a factor in this race. We will leave it there with Jeff Mays, political reporter for The New York Times, and Juan Manuel Benitez, formerly of NY1 and NY1 Noticias, now a professor of local journalism at the Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism and a member of the coalition of journalists that calls itself the New York Editorial Board.

Just a reminder, everybody, early voting is now through Sunday. Then no voting in person on Monday. Then primary day itself is next Tuesday, June 24th. If you have a mail-in ballot, you can mail it anytime through Tuesday. It just has to be postmarked by next Tuesday, not received. That's the voting calendar as it still exists. Jeff and Juan Manuel, thank you both so much.

Jeff: Thanks, Brian.

Juan Manuel: Thank you, Brian.

Brian: We'll continue to cover the race every day on this show. We'll do other things for the rest of the show, starting right after this.

 

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