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Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer on WNYC. Now, with less than a month before Election Day, and voting has already started in so many places, I know New Yorkers got their absentee ballots in the mail already and could be voting and mailing them in as of few days ago. We'll continue with our Monday Morning Politics series covering each of the key swing states. We've been lasering on these battleground states one by one, as now more than ever, it's a relative few voters in a few consequential counties that'll likely be the ultimate deciders of our election. We did Michigan last week. Today we'll look at Wisconsin, which Biden ultimately won in 2020 by a slim margin of just 0.63%, about two-thirds of 1% of the vote. In 2016, Donald Trump took America's Dairyland, as they sometimes call it, by only three quarters of 1% over Hillary Clinton, a stunning upset that many attribute to Hillary's lack of campaign visits to the state. That's how close it's been the last two elections, and it's gone one way in one, the other way in the other. Vice President Kamala Harris is trying not to make the same mistake as Clinton.

Last week, Harris held two rallies in Wisconsin. On Friday, she spoke to a crowd of around 10,000 people, and on Thursday she was joined by Liz Cheney in Ripon, Wisconsin, known to some as the birthplace of the Republican Party. Both the former Republican representative of Wyoming and her father, that is Liz Cheney and Dick Cheney, George W. Bush's vice president, have now split with their party and endorsed Harris on her quest to become the next president, but Liz Cheney has gone the extra mile by speaking on the campaign trail. In the context of Wisconsin, here's an excerpt from her speech in Ripon last Thursday.

Liz Cheney: I am a Ronald Reagan conservative. I believe in limited government, I believe in low taxes, I believe in a strong national defense, and I believe that the private sector is the engine of growth of our economy. I believe that the family, and not the government, is the most important structure in our society.

[applause]

Liz Cheney: I know that our security and our freedom depend upon a world in which America, with our allies, leads. Above all else, I know that the most conservative of conservative values is fidelity to our constitution.

[applause]

Liz Cheney: I tell you, I have never voted for a Democrat, but this year I am proudly casting my vote for Vice President Kamala Harris.

[applause]

Brian Lehrer: For those of you who might have heard the headline that Liz Cheney has actually endorsed Kamala Harris and has gone out on the campaign trail with her but not heard any clips, there's a minute of Liz Cheney. Joining me now to talk about Wisconsin as a swing state is Charlie Sykes, founder of The Bulwark, the site that might be called anti-Trump conservatives homeland. He's an MSNBC contributor. He's the author of the newsletter To the Contrary.

Some of you may know he was a Wisconsin conservative talk show host for many years before breaking with his party over Donald Trump. He wrote the book, How the Right Lost Its Mind published in 2017. He was also a WNYC host for a short time that year when we did a weekly series in the first weeks of the Trump administration with a variety of hosts. Charlie, always good to talk to you. Welcome back to WNYC.

Charlie Sykes: It is good to talk with you, Brian.

Brian Lehrer: Can we do a little history first?

Charlie Sykes: Sure.

Brian Lehrer: Wisconsin sometimes gets called one of the Bulwark states in and of itself for Democratic presidential candidates. How long had that been going on? Why did they go for Trump, even by that slimmest of margins in 2016?

Charlie Sykes: Well, obviously, that was a huge shock eight years ago because Democrats had been winning Wisconsin rather consistently from the 1990s on by pretty substantial margins. I think what happened in 2016 was that a lot of Democrats sat home, particularly in the Democratic vote. Rich county, Milwaukee county, where I think, if memory serves, Hillary Clinton got about 40,000 fewer votes than Barack Obama had gotten four years earlier.

All elections in Wisconsin now are on a razor's edge. The Republicans run up big margins in rural Wisconsin, although their margins in the suburban areas have been declining. Again, I expect it to be a jump ball again this year.

Brian Lehrer: Did the polls miss a lot of Trump voters in 2016? There's been a lot of talk about how Trump's estimated vote was undercounted by many polls. In one poll that I'm reading with respect to historical, getting it wrong, the margin was a predicted 6.2% for Clinton, but Trump won by that 0.77%. Did you ever look into that?

Charlie Sykes: Yes. That's really an interesting question, because, in fact, the chairman of the State Democratic Party, Ben Wikler, has been writing about this, that the last two election cycles, the polls have been off by about 7%, underestimating Trump's vote by 7%. He is letting Democrats know, "Do not become complacent because of these polls, because you had that particular pattern." Now, whether that's going to be the case again, we don't know, but it's a flashing red light for Democrats that you have two consecutive presidential elections where the poll miss has been big and consistent.

Brian Lehrer: Any reason to think it'll be any different this year compared to the polls?

Charlie Sykes: I do think there's a couple of differences. Number one, there's going to be no complacency on the part of Democrats this year. In fact, Democrats have really turned things around in terms of their get-out-the-vote efforts and their grassroots efforts. In fact, that's been one of the big changes that I've seen over the last decade.

Republicans had, for a while, quite an advantage during the-- and this will be a historical flashback. When Reince Priebus was the chairman of the Republican Party in Wisconsin, Scott Walker was the governor, Paul Ryan was the fundraising engine. Republicans had a real advantage at the grassroots level and the vote turnout efforts. That's been eroded rather extraordinarily. That no longer exists. The Democrats, who had been somewhat feckless, have gotten their act together.

I do think that in a jump ball election, look, everything is going to be close, but I think that dynamic has changed very significantly over the last eight years.

Brian Lehrer: Why did Biden win in 2020, even if by that same razor thin margin, less than a point, when Donald Trump won in 2016?

Charlie Sykes: Two reasons. Number one, Donald Trump had much lower margins in the so called WOW counties. These are the suburban Milwaukee counties, Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington county. That used to be the heart and soul of the Republican Party, and they would win by massive margins. They still win, but clearly, you're seeing Trump erosion. The other thing that happened was you had a massive turnout of Democratic voters in liberal Dane County, which is the state capital in Madison, and that's become one of the new dynamics in Wisconsin.

It's going to be close because rural Wisconsin continues to trend toward the Republicans, but there is the suburban erosion, and again, we'll see whether Democrats really have gotten their vote turnout efforts back up to par.

Brian Lehrer: Listeners, as we do in these swing state segments, we invite anybody in from or with ties to, in this case, Wisconsin, to call in and tell us what you're seeing in that state. 212433 WNYC. Tell us a story of yourself, any of your family members, or friends in or from Wisconsin, anybody who maybe voted one way in 2012, another way in 2016, another way in 2020, or even just stayed home. 212433 WNYC.

What do you think people are basing their decisions on in 2024? Anything else you want to say or ask about swing-state Wisconsin from Charlie Sykes, former long term Wisconsin conservative talk show host and then a founder of the anti-Trump but conservative website, The Bulwark. 212433 WNYC, 212-433-9692, call or text.

Can you talk more, Charlie, about those rural Wisconsinites, who you mentioned a minute ago, who have trended more toward Trump over time? What do they believe they get from him? Why do they believe he represents them?

Charlie Sykes: Well, that's a complex question. I think it's a rejection of what they see as the elitism of the Democrats. They feel that they were ignored for some time. I have to say that the Democrats are making a significant play to win them back, really asking the question you just asked, "What exactly are you getting from him?" and breaking it down. You've had a much larger presence. Kamala Harris is campaigning in Wisconsin much more aggressively than Hillary Clinton, who didn't visit here during the general election. Of course, in 2020, there was really no traditional campaign because of COVID. She's here a lot. They're putting a lot of resources into that to try to counter that.

Of course, you mentioned this earlier, I don't think I can overstate how surreal and extraordinary it was to see her campaigning in Ripon, Wisconsin, last Thursday with Liz Cheney. I was there. This is the birthplace of the Republican Party. The very conscious effort they are making to reach out to disaffected republican voters in rural Wisconsin, suburban Wisconsin, et cetera, these very engaged Republicans who know Trump has crossed uncrossable lines. It's one thing for the Democrats to say, "Yes, we are trying to create a big tent." It's something else to put the kind of resources they are behind that.

Standing there with Kamala Harris and Liz Cheney, you realize this is a really extraordinary moment. They're really trying to send a message to that little sliver of the Wisconsin electorate that maybe have voted Republican, may have voted for Donald Trump twice, saying, "This time is different. It's not about liberal versus conservative, Democrat versus Republican. It's about something much more fundamental." That was really the message that Liz Cheney was pushing. The fact that Democrats are embracing her in Wisconsin at the birthplace of the Republican Party is rather extraordinary.

Brian Lehrer: Here's 30 more seconds of Liz Cheney from that rally making just the case that you were describing her making in a half a minute.

Liz Cheney: As we meet here today, our republic faces a threat unlike any we have faced before; a former president who attempted to stay in power by unraveling the foundations of our republic, by refusing to accept the lawful results confirmed by dozens of courts of the 2020 election. We cannot turn away from this truth in this election. Putting patriotism ahead of partisanship is not an aspiration. It is our duty.

Brian Lehrer: Are there any Liz Cheney Republicans left? In the context of Wisconsin, I'm thinking back to right after the financial crisis of 2008, 2009, Wisconsin was very much in the news because their Republican governor, Scott Walker, was going out after public sector unions, state, and I guess, city, municipal employee unions, trying to weaken their ability to collectively bargain as one response, political response, anyway, to the financial crisis like, "Look, we're paying too much in pensions, et cetera, to these public sector workers who are getting over on the rest of you."

Wisconsin became an emblem of tea party, if I can say, conservatism through Governor Scott Walker. Are there Scott Walker, Liz Cheney, Republicans who now think Trump is a threat to the republic, as Cheney does?

Charlie Sykes: Well, I don't know if I would put it that way, but you're absolutely right. In many ways, what happened here in Wisconsin was a preview of the intense partisanship that engulfed the rest of the country. That's one of the interesting things about Wisconsin politics. I was very much part of all of that, but the intensity of the politics was pre Trump, and so the engagement of voters has been much more intense than, I think, in some other states.

That's why it's so interesting and why Liz Cheney is, I think, can potentially have an impact here, because she's not talking to just the undecided voters who are not paying any attention to politics or completely disillusioned. She's talking very specifically to these deeply engaged Republicans, saying, "Okay, I am also a conservative. You don't have to agree with Kamala Harris on these issues. This is about something else."

Now, how many are there? Is it 1%? Is it 2%? In a state like Wisconsin, 1% or 2% can make the difference, because as you hit the margins earlier-- I think that there are Republicans who will say, "Okay, I still believe in conservative Republican policies, but Donald Trump is just beyond the pale, somebody who is mocking our troops, he's abused the powers of his office. He fomented a violent mob to derail the peaceful transfer of power. I just can't take four more years of that."

If I remember correctly, there have been about-- it's something around 50,000 to 70,000 Wisconsin Republicans who vote up and down the ticket for Republicans but either leave the presidential line blank or vote for the Democrat. In a state where everything is decided by 20,000 votes, the answer to your question is yes, not a big group, but potentially a decisive group.

Brian Lehrer: A listener asks in a text message, "Has Harris traded progressive voters for anti-Trump Republicans?" I guess its a legitimate question. Does she risk alienating parts of her base, some of the progressive voters when they see her championing, celebrating Liz Cheney, especially if they remember Dick Cheney as vice president?

Charlie Sykes: Well, that is an interesting question, which, again, going back to the event that happened last week, clearly they made a decision that they are going to make a play for those centrist conservative voters. In Wisconsin I don't see any indication that there's been a trade-off at this point. In Wisconsin, at least, I think it's all hands on deck. All the red lights are blinking and people are not going to be dissuaded.

Now, it may be different in Michigan with the Arab votes, which we were describing in the last segment, but I have not picked that up in Wisconsin yet. It's a legitimate question, but it's also a sign, I think, of how gutsy the Harris campaign has been to say, "Okay, you know what, we are going to turn out our base in places like Madison, Wisconsin, but we're going to make a serious concerted play for conservative Republicans as well."

This is a big tent strategy that they've clearly gone all in on. It is interesting that as the Republicans shrink their appeal to the hardcore MAGA base, the Democrats are actually going, "Okay, you know what? If you're going to ignore these softer Republican votes, we're going to make a play for them."

Brian Lehrer: We're getting a few like the text that I read. Another one writes, "Touting the support of the Cheneys is all the evidence I need to be a steward of the military industrial complex." There are a few people chiming in in that way, a little skeptical of that. Let's take a call from Georgia in Madison, Wisconsin. Maybe in a few weeks we'll get a call from Madison in Georgia, but Georgia in Madison, you're on WNYC. Hello.

Georgia: Hello. Longtime listener, former New Yorker. I've lived in Wisconsin for 15 years now.

Brian Lehrer: And?

Georgia: I was very heartened when I went to the Kamala rally recently that I-- First of all, it was packed to the gills, even though it was announced only a couple days before. The woman I sat next to had grown up on a farm north of Madison about an hour, and she said her dad and brother, though very Republican, could not vote for Trump. That just made me feel like a wave that's happening, that people here are actually more reasonable, and the MAGA republican thing is not actually meshing with the Wisconsin ethos.

Brian Lehrer: Georgia, thank you very much. Let's go to another caller also in Madison. Dan, you're on WNYC. Hi, Dan.

Dan: Hi, Brian. Thanks for taking my call. I just want to echo what the last caller said. Just to add one more thing, I think the people are going to show up for Harris in no small part because we see the impact of the Biden-Harris administration's infrastructure bill. One big topic in Madison recently is that we just got these amazing new electric buses and an electric BRT route. The Transit folks, well, New Yorkers, will know what I mean when I say that. It's just been amazing for the city. It's been amazing for myself. I think these are the things that Madisonians know are not going to happen under a second Trump administration.

It's not just that we love Biden, it's that we've seen the infrastructure impact on the city, and we know that things are going to continue to get better when we have federal funding for things like infrastructure, like public transit, which I know, is just a huge thing for me and many other Madisonians.

Brian Lehrer: Dan, thank you very much. Charlie, he implies economic interests there. I wonder if you see, as some of the polls have indicated, that the remaining undecided voters in the swing states, in this case in Wisconsin, are fairly focused on their economic interests. They don't really love either of these candidates, but they're going to look for who's going to control the cost of living, who's going to control inflation, who's going to create jobs, whether it's in the new clean energy sector, as the caller is referring, or anything else.

Charlie Sykes: Obviously, clearly, there are going to be voters that are going to be looking at that, but I'll take a slightly contrarian take on this, that it's no longer about the economy, stupid. There's a lot of other issues in play. Yes, inflation is a big issue. How do people react to the debates about immigration? The Trump campaign is pushing ads that focus on transgender issues as well. They think that the election will turn on these cultural issues.

It's hard to say which will move the needle, but my sense is that this is election less about policy than it is about, I'm sorry to use the overused term, vibes. What is your vision of America? What do you want from American politics? What are your values that you see reflected or rejected by the two candidates?

Brian Lehrer: To your point, I saw a Trump ad that's playing on the Mets-Phillies playoff series, so I guess it's targeted at people in Pennsylvania, that says, without going through the whole text, "Kamala Harris is for they/them, not for you." It gets tied to an anti-immigrant message in the way that commercial lays out. I don't know if you saw it, but there it is. Respect or assistance with surgeries for transgender people, that's the threat to you, you should be worried about, especially if they're immigrants. That's more of a vibe thing, I guess, because it's not really going to affect a lot of people that somebody respects a transgender person.

Charlie Sykes: Well, this is the heart of MAGA right now, and this is a play for the base to make people afraid that somehow she's radical or she's a communist or all of these things. I don't know. Again, republicans think this is the Willie Horton ad. This is the Willie Horton ad of this year, which was used in 1988. On the other hand, there's also the backlash against what I think is one of the ugliest campaigns we've seen in American politics-

Brian Lehrer: You think?

Charlie Sykes: -in terms of the racism, the insults, the attacks on migrants. This has the, really, high risk of alienating exactly the kinds of voters that I think have been drifting away from the Republican Party, but we will find out sooner.

Brian Lehrer: One more call. Gladys, in Nassau County on Long Island, but with a question about Wisconsin. Hi, Gladys.

Gladys: Yes. Hello. Good morning. Well, a big fan and a big fan of Charlie, his amazing work. My question is about, I visited Wisconsin recently, about a few months ago, and I was amazed to see the large amount of Latinos living in that state. Specifically, my question is, what do you think about the influence of the vote of Latino in Wisconsin? Thank you.

Brian Lehrer: Thank you, Gladys. I'll go back to my other question, Charlie, and just hook it to Gladys's, even though you were skeptical of it before. I keep seeing polls and articles about how Latino voters, many, very much in play, are particularly focused on cost of living issues.

Charlie Sykes: Well, yes, I think everybody's been focused on that. I don't know whether or not the salience of that issue has gone down with inflation. Look, the Latino vote is going to be pivotal in all of the swing states, including in Wisconsin. This, of course, is the big question. Have the Democrats lost-- How much ground have they lost among working class voters, not just white working class voters, but African-American and Latino working class voters? I think that the Harris campaign seems very cognizant of that. They seem to be focusing on that, and we'll see whether the message gets through.

I also think that they need to make it very, very clear exactly what a second Trump administration would mean for Latinos particularly. I continue to be amazed that there's not more attention to this, the plans to forcibly deport more than 10 million people. There's no easy way to do that. There's no humane way to do that. There's no way that you can do that without disrupting communities and destroying families. We've never seen anything remotely like this in America-- Well, actually, we have seen something remotely like this, but certainly not recently. You wouldn't think you'd see this in 2024.

If Donald Trump is serious, and I think people need to take him serious, that you are going to, what, use the military, use National Guard, use police to round up 10-20 million human beings and ship them out of the country, I think that this is one of those moments where people really need to think about what would that be like? What would that feel like? What would that do to the fabric of American culture?

Brian Lehrer: It's very much the platform. JD Vance talks about it, too, and it's one of the few specific policies that they actually tout on the campaign trail. We'll leave it there with-- Go ahead, Charlie, last thing.

Charlie Sykes: Here in Milwaukee at the convention, they were actually holding up signs that said, "Mass deportation. Mass deportation." They're not making any secret of it.

Brian Lehrer: Charlie Sykes, founder of The Bulwark, MSNBC contributor, author of the newsletter, To the Contrary, and author of the 2017 book, How the Right Lost Its Mind, in addition to his decades as a conservative talk show host in Wisconsin, as we have been talking about swing-state Wisconsin. Charlie, really appreciate your time.

Charlie Sykes: Thank you so much.

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