Title: Swing State Check-In: Michigan

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Brian Lehrer: It's the Brian Lehrer show on WNYC. Good morning, everyone. We begin this week with our usual Monday morning politics segment and continue the Monday series we've been doing on the swing states one by one, today, Michigan, one of the states where voting is already underway. Trump won Michigan in 2016. Joe Biden won it in 2020. Here's how much of a swing state it is.

In 2016, Trump beat Hillary Clinton there by just 11,000 votes out of 4.5 million cast, just two-tenths of a point win, the closest in the nation. In 2020, Joe Biden won Michigan a little more comfortably by about 154,000 votes out of about 5.5 million casts. That was about a three percentage point win. Another twist came in February of this year in the Democratic primary, when more than 100,000 people voted uncommitted to protest Biden's policy toward the war in Gaza. Here's Michigan Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib, the only Palestinian American member of Congress supporting a vote for uncommitted before that primary.

Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib: This is the way you can raise our voices. Don't make us even more invisible. Right now we feel completely neglected and just unseen by our government. If you want us to be louder, then come here and vote uncommitted.

Brian Lehrer: One question in Michigan now is how many of those 100,000 voters will come home to Kamala Harris? Another question is the possible influence of the vice presidential candidates, both from neighboring Midwest states and reflecting different kinds of Midwest populism, you might say. Tim Walz and JD Vance will have their debate tomorrow night. We'll have it on the station, perhaps a bigger deal in Michigan than in most other places. Now, JD Vance was in Michigan the other day and addressed the nation's housing shortage. He blamed it on, can you guess? Undocumented immigrants.

JD Vance: When you allow foreign people who are in this country illegally to buy houses that ought by right to go to Americans, then you make it impossible for American citizens to afford the American dream of homeownership. Here's what we believe is we need common sense, tax, and economic policy. We need to bring back some good American manufacturing jobs to the state of Michigan, but if we want to allow American citizens to afford a home again, we've got to start by deporting the millions of illegal aliens that Kamala Harris let come into this country.

Brian Lehrer: JD Vance in Michigan. That was from an NPR Sunday montage. Listeners are newly arrived undocumented immigrants bidding on homes in your area. With that much as prelude, we welcome as our guide to our conversation about the swing state of Michigan, Zoe Clark, political director at Michigan Public and cohost of the podcast, It's Just Politics. Zoe, thanks for giving us some time today. Welcome to WNYC. Do we have Zoe Clark? I think she's just muted. Unmute yourself. Hey, Zoe, you there? Hmm? All right, we are having some technical difficulties with her line. We're going to call her on a different line.

Meanwhile, listeners, as we've been doing with these swing state segments, we're opening the phones and our text message stream with first priority to anyone in the state, anyone originally from the state of Michigan in this case, or anyone with other ties to the state as well as in the state right now, the state of Michigan. Help us report this story. 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9962. Call or text with your take on the race there or with any questions you may have for Zoe Clark, political director at Michigan Public and host of the podcast, It's Just Politics. We'll have Zoe's line reconnected in just a second.

Going to ask her first about that JD Vance clip and how much immigration is an issue in Michigan right now. It's a long way from the southern border, but we'll see. About the affordable housing issue that Vance hooked the immigration issue to in that Michigan clip. Housing is an issue in this race that is one of our emphases on this show, as you know, and I think we have Zoe Clark now. Zoe, are you there?

Zoe Clark: I am. Hi, Brian.

Brian Lehrer: Thanks a lot for joining us. Let's start with that JD Vance clip. You're a long way from the southern border. How big an issue in Michigan is the influx of asylum seekers the last few years compared to the past or compared to any other swing states or however else you would put it?

Zoe Clark: It's a really fascinating change that we've seen, I can tell you, covering Michigan politics for more than almost two decades, a decade ago, we had a Republican governor, Rick Snyder, who told folks that he wanted to be the most pro-immigration governor, Democrat or Republican, in the country. Again, a Republican governor saying that. He really believed that this idea of having immigrants come to Michigan to create business, right, that it would help the economy.

Here we are some 10 years later and a very different Republican Party is making immigration seem very scary and seem very bad. That is something that Republicans are trying to do in Michigan. Of course, we are a border state, but we're a border state with Canada, not Mexico, but it's very interesting. If you look at the dynamic and some of the change in polls about where particularly Republicans see immigration as an issue, it's a much bigger issue than it was a decade ago.

Brian Lehrer: Still thinking about the Vance clip, I wonder about the affordable housing issue that Vance hooked the immigration issue to in that clip I mentioned just before you came on. Housing as an issue in this race is one of our emphases on this show because inflation is so key and housing costs are so key to inflation. Here's a clip of Vice President Harris on housing from her economy speech last week in Pittsburgh.

Vice President Harris: We will cut the red tape that stops homes from being built and take on, in addition, corporate landlords who are hiking rental prices. We will work with builders and developers to construct 3 million new homes and rentals for the middle class because increasing the housing supply will help drive down the cost of housing.

Brian Lehrer: Zoe, do you think that moves the needle in any meaningful way, affordable housing for renters or buyers as an issue in Michigan, never mind yet which candidates it favors?

Zoe Clark: Affordable housing, let's just be very clear. The cost of everything right now is on the top of voters' minds, but affordable housing, much like in many parts of the country right now, is a huge issue here in Michigan. This, particularly, idea, as Kamala Harris talks about this opportunity economy, middle-class folks trying to be able to build wealth through home ownership. Going back to the JD Vance clip, I want to give some insight into the state of Michigan when he was in Traverse City. That is a resort area, and there's a lot of wealth and a lot of folks who come in from the Detroit suburbs and even Chicago who have summer homes there.

One of the issues that we see is that there's workers for restaurants and things like that, that pop up in these resort towns, and there isn't affordable housing for folks who are making minimum wage in these areas where there's multimillion-dollar homes. The idea that somehow that's tied to immigration, however, is somewhat laughable. It is an issue throughout the state of Michigan, and it's something that here in the state, our governor and the legislature is actually working towards, again, because they see it being such an issue.

Brian Lehrer: Are you seeing many undocumented immigrants buying homes in Michigan?

Zoe Clark: No, I personally am not. I personally am not.

Brian Lehrer: How is Harris trying to appeal? Well, still thinking about the Vance clip yet, I wonder if it even relates in a way to the Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib clip that we played from February. If Trump and Vance are running so much on calling dark-skinned immigrants, if you will, criminals, maybe it'll help more of the 100,000 uncommitted voters from the Democratic primary, vote for Harris if only to avoid Trump. If we assume that many of them are Arab American or Muslim or other people of color, are you seeing signs of that at all?

Zoe Clark: I think when you're talking about Rashida Tlaib, when you're talking about the uncommitted movement, these really, in many respects, are single-issue voters right now, which, of course, that issue is being Gaza. When you saw Emgage, a national Arab American group, endorse Kamala Harris last week, but then the week before uncommitted, basically, deciding that they were going to neither endorse Harris nor endorse Trump, I think that very much has to do specifically with what is happening in the Middle East.

If there's going to be votes for Trump by Arab Americans, I think it's specifically going to be about Gaza. I don't see that this conversation about immigration becomes this secondary issue at this point.

Brian Lehrer: How is Harris trying to appeal to the uncommitted movement or the uncommitted bloc in Michigan if you see her trying to do that at all?

Zoe Clark: That's a great question. When she became the candidate in late July, early August, one of her very first rallies was here in Detroit and, of course, Southeast Michigan, one of the largest, if not the largest, population of Arabs in the country. There was conversations that she was meeting with some of the movement. Then there was the DNC and pro-Palestinian protesters and pro-Palestinian groups asked folks at the DNC to have a speaking spot, and they were denied.

It was pretty clear at that moment, after just being unhappy with what they were hearing from the campaign, that there was not going to be a push to get out the vote. When uncommitted decided to not endorse Harris again two weeks ago, it didn't come as a huge surprise. Again, in the statement that they put out, they're saying, "We also can't possibly endorse Donald Trump, and also, we don't necessarily believe in any third party candidates." It's a bit of a nuanced non-endorsement, right?

Brian Lehrer: Yes. That's pretty nuanced, especially considering that a vote for nobody in Michigan is kind of a vote for Trump if your other option was going to be Harris.

Zoe Clark: Exactly. That's different than what we saw in February. In February, when it was just the Democratic presidential primary and it was still Biden on the ticket, you literally could vote for uncommitted. That was an actual thing that you could box, you could check and fill in. There is not that option on the November ballot here in Michigan.

Brian Lehrer: Let's take a caller. Al in Newark. You're on WNYC with Zoe Clark from Michigan Public as we talk about the swing state of Michigan. Hi, Al.

Al: Hi. How you doing? Actually, my dad is from South Haven. I got one question. I'm a landlord here in Newark. I have properties all over New Jersey. It's interesting. I got a ton of illegal immigrants who I-- they're great tenants and I love them, but they definitely are putting pressure on the housing. It would be ignorant to say that a surplus of a couple of million people doesn't put pressure on the housing. A ton of my tenants, I love them, they're great guys. I love them as individuals, but they're definitely, definitely putting a ton of pressure on the housing across the country.

Brian Lehrer: Thank you, Al. What about buying? Sounds like you're renting to people. That's where we would see it if we see it. The clip of JD Vance was saying undocumented immigrants, suggesting recent arrivals have enough money to compete in the home-buying market. Are you seeing that in Newark?

Al: No, not really. Honestly, it doesn't have-- I have seen it. Some of these guys, they use it through other people's names and stuff like that. It's hard to buy a house as an illegal immigrant, but definitely, as an investor, I'm edging out many, many buyers because I know I could get great rent from these guys. You can't put millions and millions of people in the country without putting some pressure on the housing. Also, I don't understand what Harris means when she says she's going to deregulate because most of the regulation problems are municipal. The government doesn't have the power to just rip out those regulations. It's nice rhetoric, but it's not practical.

Brian Lehrer: Al, thanks a lot for your call. We really appreciate it. To his last point, Zoe, I don't know if you're on this at that level of detail, but I've heard this argument before about Harris saying she's going to help with local housing markets or the housing shortage around the country. It was in the clip, cutting red tape. It also implies zoning, which is certainly a big issue where we are in New York, which affects the amount of new housing construction that can take place.

She implies that she can do something about it as president, or she and Congress can do something at the federal level when a lot of those issues really are local. Have you heard any talk about that, heard the Harris campaign defend that, or people are talking about that particular piece of the debate in Michigan?

Zoe Clark: Right. First, let's not be shocked to think that either candidate is making promises or talking about issues that may have very little impact. No, here's the thing. In the state of Michigan, this is something that certainly our governor and locals are dealing with. One of the other things we have to think about because-- and again, I'm not an economist here, so I'm going to be careful to not go above my pay grade, but when you talk about mortgage rates, someone who bought a house and has a 3% mortgage rate right now in Michigan is going to be very uninterested in moving and finding other housing with a mortgage rate at, what, 6% or 7%.

We have folks who are staying in their houses, and again, there's just not enough housing being developed. What we are seeing statewide here is suddenly this sense and urgency about needing to find affordable housing and the creation of that. I do want to say something, though, about this idea of population growth. I can tell you that here in Michigan, a big conversation is about our population. I have lived in Michigan for nearly four decades, and it was always really easy in school because every time there was a question on a quiz, which is, what is the population of Michigan? It is always 10 million. My entire life, it has been 10 million.

There was a report that came out two years ago that showed Michigan was second only to West Virginia in states' lowest population growth. A state like Michigan actually wants growth. We want people to come here. As I was talking earlier about a Republican, Governor Snyder, at the time, saying he wanted to be the most pro-immigration friendly governor, and the statistics that we see about willingness to create small businesses and a sense of willingness to try to be part of communities, here in Michigan, immigrant population, I think it accounted for 57% of our state's population growth in the past decade. That's important for job creation. What we have to do is make sure that that housing can keep up with that.

Brian Lehrer: Maybe this is a good place to pull back a little after you brought up some of those overall population stats and how they haven't changed much over time. To pull back a little and look at the numbers from the recent elections, Democratic candidates for president, one in Michigan in every year from 1992 to 2012, that's from Bill Clinton through Obama, then Trump beat Hillary Clinton by just 11,000 votes. Then Biden beat Trump by 150,000, from the numbers I've seen. Do I have that about right?

Zoe Clark: You do. Exactly.

Brian Lehrer: Why do you think Trump won in 2016 after that decades-long string of Democratic victories, and then, why do you think he didn't hold on to the state in 2020?

Zoe Clark: Let's start with 2016, which I will often say that it wasn't so much that Donald Trump won Michigan but that Hillary Clinton lost the state. There were just fewer Democrats who were excited to vote for Hillary Clinton in 2016. We did not see turnout in places like Detroit, which used to be strong Democratic turnout. We also saw white working-class labor voters who had always gone for Bill Clinton in the '90s, post-NAFTA. As you've talked about on the show, the manufacturing of industry in Michigan and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and Ohio that have gone overseas. Really some of those areas and these towns have somewhat been economically devastated.

Folks, I think, were interested in seeing what Trump would do in '16 without really having a record, this sense of populism and that he was going to be in it for the little guy and he was going to help and bring back jobs and do all these things. I think there was a sense where Hillary Clinton did not do enough to turn out the vote among voters who are usually Democratic voters.

Then you come back to 2020, and you have a candidate like Joe Biden who really knows how to talk to those voters, what we call downriver here in Michigan, the UAW folks. I think there was also a much larger turnout in Michigan too. Voters who had seen enough, or voters who voted for Obama in '12 then voted for Trump in '16 but then went back to Biden. What's really interesting now in '24 is, can Kamala Harris keep that coalition together here in Michigan in '24?

Brian Lehrer: Yes. By the numbers, the Biden margin of victory, around 154,000 votes, if all those uncommitted Gaza-concerned primary voters stay home, that's two-thirds of Biden's margin right there that Harris would be deprived of. They won't all stay home, of course, but some meaningful percentage might. We don't know. How important, mathematically, is the Arab American or Muslim population or the uncommitted movement voters overall, as you see it?

Zoe Clark: Yes, exactly. Let's give those numbers again. Trump won Michigan by 10,704 votes. The uncommitted movement, more than 100,000 back in February. If you also think about the third party candidates, in '16, Jill Stein, who is on the ballot, now again in '24, more than 50,000 votes. Whether it is a third party vote for a Jill Stein or a Cornel West or it's simply not turning out to vote, the mathematics, as you say, are not in favor of Harris right now.

That is why the campaign is looking to turn out the vote, to turn out the vote, to turn out the vote, in places like Detroit, in places like Grand Rapids, in Flint, where it's being reported that Harris will be on Friday, as well as suburban women, women who came out two years ago when abortion was on the ballot here in Michigan, women in Oakland County and Kent County who really need to turn out. That's really where Democrats are looking and working right now.

Brian Lehrer: Yes, those turnout numbers overall, voter numbers between 2016 and 2020, are so striking. A million more voters in 2020, like 5.5 million the year Biden won, compared to 4.5 million in 2016 when Hillary Clinton won. That must have been almost 1 million new Democrat-- no not new Democrats, but more Democrats.

Zoe Clark: That's what's so fascinating again. When we talk about getting out the vote, that's really what we mean. We should also talk about that for the first time in a nation or in a statewide election here in Michigan because two years ago, voters approved a new constitutional amendment, we will have early voting here in Michigan. Many places will open polls 9 days early, some places more than 20 days early. Again, when you have that conversation about trying to get as many folks to the polls because in Michigan, it sounds very basic, but when more people turn out to vote, Democrats win in Michigan.

Really, what this all right now is an enthusiasm and turnout machine. Whereas, the Trump campaign, interestingly enough, is a strategy that was reported by The Detroit News Craig Mauger last week, which was really interesting. It's what we're seeing nationwide is this idea of the Trump campaign trying to reach what we call low propensity voters, voters who don't turn out in every election and vote, who aren't super engaged and that reportedly his campaign is looking at something like 200,000 to 500,000 low propensity voters in Michigan, mostly white men, and trying to get those folks to turn out to combat some of this voter enthusiasm on the Democratic side.

Brian Lehrer: Here's a caller in Los Angeles, who I think has a comment about the uncommitted voters from the primary and where they are, and also Jewish voters, which I'll ask you about, or any kind of pro-Israel voters, no matter what their background, but for whom that's a primary issue, after we hear the caller. David in Los Angeles, you're on WNYC.

David: Yes. Hi. First time, long time. Love the show. I'm calling about this issue, and I guess a little bit about my background. My dad's Jewish, my mom's Muslim. It's a bit of an unusual situation. I feel like when it comes to the uncommitted, there's often a lot of surprise. People talk about, "Well, they're not going to vote for Harris, and that's the same as giving it to Trump." I think given that there's been really-- no bones have been thrown to them, there's no movement on the issue from the Harris campaign, I don't think it's surprising that they wouldn't come to the camp.

The only way they have to have a voice in terms of making a point on this issue is withholding their vote. They can't go halfway and say, "Oh, at the last minute, we'll give you your vote." That completely removes any of their agency. I think that since the policies of the two parties on the issue that they care about are basically the same, it's not irrational for them to make that choice. I often think it's framed as irrational, if that makes sense, to say, "Oh, well, they're giving it to Trump." Well, to them on that issue, it might as well be the same.

Brian Lehrer: Where it looks irrational to some people is that they would question the premise that you were just laying out, that there's not really a difference between the Trump policy and the Biden/Harris policy. The argument, and I'm going to ask our guest in a minute if Harris is explicitly even making this case, but there would be an argument that Trump is so aligned with Netanyahu and Biden and Harris are trying to walk this other line where they're trying to press Netanyahu to make a ceasefire deal even though that's not working and otherwise be more multi-pronged on that issue compared to what Trump would be, that there is a meaningful difference between them. Any thought, David?

David: Yes, but if they haven't actually made any headway of that kind, it's hard to really believe that. They say that they have a different position, vis-à-vis Netanyahu, but in practice, there's no effect. There's no evidence that that's the case. You get a lot as a candidate for not having AIPAC try to destroy you. It seems like that's the position that they actually take even if what they say is designed to appeal to people on both sides. I think people are sensitive to that. I really think people will say BS meters. Read it.

Brian Lehrer: Thank you very much. I don't know that with all the money in this campaign, and we've talked about this before, that AIPAC has the power to destroy Kamala Harris anyway, but here's a text saying the opposite. This is the thinking that David there was responding to. Listener writes, "I just don't understand how the noncommitted movement is willing to throw the rights of all other marginalized and minority Americans under the bus for their single issue. What happened to progressives talking about intersectionality and solidarity?"

Zoe Clark from Michigan Public, before we go on to some other issues regarding the campaign in the swing state of Michigan, is Harris trying at all to distinguish her and Biden's position on the Middle East from that of Donald Trump?

Zoe Clark: I think she is. To your point, in your perfect forward promote race, there's also, throughout the country, huge issues that she's also responding to because, of course, one of the things that we see in polling is some voters still saying that they just don't know her well enough and that they want to see what her plans are on the economy, what her plans are on inflation. In Michigan, and I think other states, I think the uncommitted movement has a really big impact.

When we're talking nationwide, Harris also has to thread the needle and have these conversations about all the issues, going to the border on Friday, again, something that continues to be top of mind, particularly for maybe more moderate voters or maybe even some Republicans that she thinks she may even be able to turn out. I think here in the state, when she's here in Michigan, she's having those conversations. We, of course, remember in her speech in the DNC, she laid out how she's thinking about it. We've seen that she's tried to take some steps that are a little different than where Joe Biden stands.

Also to the caller's point, we do see Donald Trump, who seems very, very, very lockstep with Benjamin Netanyahu and having meetings together. It's a bit of an amorphous when you're talking about where Donald Trump stands exactly, and how Donald Trump would suddenly be able to end all of this. Again, feels very much like a protest vote against Harris than a vote for Trump. We should also note there are plenty of conservative Arab Americans here in Michigan. In fact, we just saw the mayor of Hamtramck endorse Donald Trump just last week. I always want to be very careful that nothing is monolithic, and it's not just black and white about where people stand on issues.

Brian Lehrer: We'll continue in a minute on the swing state of Michigan. We'll talk about Walz and Vance as Midwest neighbors of Michigan and the different kinds of populism they represent and whether tomorrow night's vice presidential debate might actually matter to the outcome in Michigan at all. We'll see also if Michigan might be a battleground for counting and certifying the votes as a state that Trump tried very hard to flip post-election in 2020 and much more. 212-433-WNYC, as we continue with Zoe Clark, political director of Michigan Public. Stay with us.

Brian Lehrer on WNYC. As we continue on the swing state of Michigan, we're looking in these Monday morning politics segments at a different swing state each week from now until Election Day. Let's go on to the very big issue in Michigan of manufacturing jobs. Zoe Clark from Michigan Public, can you give our listeners and the rest of the country a brief snapshot of the loss of manufacturing jobs in the auto industry or elsewhere in the last few decades?

Zoe Clark: Yes. It's dramatically changed as we were talking earlier about NAFTA, globalization, where just fundamentally cars are built right now and fewer and fewer plants here in Michigan and the industrial Midwest. Also what we're seeing is a push by some of the big three auto companies, as well as our Democratic governor, is the creation of EVs that looking into the future and building next-generation battery plants and really wanting Michigan to take over that next mantle. There's this push and pull because there's reports basically, that show research that fewer bodies are actually needed to build EVs, and so what will that mean for a workforce? What will jobs of the future look like?

Does it become with many conversations as we're having about the future of work and manufacturing? Who is actually building those parts when you're talking about AI and technology being able to do those things? It's a really interesting moment that we are in as we're continuing to build gas-powered vehicles because we know that that is still what many consumers want, but also many folks taking this bet and leaning into EVs. With many things, as we've talked about, EVs have become political unto themselves. We have Donald Trump here saying that Kamala Harris basically wants to only make you, only allow you to drive an EV. There's a political paint on that now as well.

Brian Lehrer: Yes. Trump campaigns on tariffs also to increase the price of imported cars, to end any price advantage over American-made cars. That's one way he's campaigning in Detroit and around Michigan as well. Here again is Harris from her economy speech last week touting what economists call an industrial policy aimed here at creating the manufacturing jobs of the future as you were just talking about.

Vice President Harris: From our earliest days, America's economic strength has been tied to our industrial strength, and the same is true today. I will recommit the nation to global leadership in the sectors that will define the next century. We will invest in biomanufacturing and aerospace, remain dominant in AI and quantum computing, blockchain and other emerging technologies, expand our lead in clean energy innovation and manufacturing. The next generation of breakthroughs, from advanced batteries to geothermal, to advanced nuclear, are not just invented but built here in America by American workers.

Brian Lehrer: There's that from Harris. Tariffs from Trump. The UAW has endorsed Harris. The teamsters are sitting out, which is seen as good for Trump. I saw a Wall Street Journal article from the other day, Zoe, to the point you were making before the clip with a headline, Harris Tiptoes Away From Electric Vehicle Stance as Trump Seizes an Opening in Michigan. It says, "Sales of the cars, EVs, have plateaued, and some automakers are pulling back production." Do you see Harris pulling away from EVs in any concrete way the Biden/Harris administration introduce those tax credits for EV purchases?

Zoe Clark: What's so interesting, you've got the energy secretary, Jennifer Granholm, who was Michigan's two-term Democratic governor in the early aughts, and she continues to talk about the future of EV and alternative energy. No, it's been very interesting to see Harris seem to, I guess, pun intended, take the gas off conversation about EVs. These are the conversations that folks in tech and manufacturing are thinking and having here in Michigan.

It's like, "What is the future of transportation and individual vehicles going to look like? Then, where are they going to be built?" Because just functionality, you buy a car now and there's a huge screen in it and you can put your phone in and you can do this and you can do, things that were not in cars a decade ago, let alone two, three, four decades ago. Again, the question is, who is going to be at the forefront, not just of creating that? Is it going to be Silicon Valley, but where is it actually going to be built? Again, these jobs of the future.

It goes, I think, back to this narrative of Harris saying we're not going back and looking into the future and talking about where this country can be versus Trump, and talking very much about how things used to be and taking America back and make America great again. I think this idea of manufacturing jobs just so speaks to that sense of what the future of work in the industrial Midwest is going to look like in 5, 10, 15, 20 years.

Brian Lehrer: Dan in Manhattan, originally from Michigan, you're on WNYC. Hello.

Zoe Clark: Oh, hi, Dan.

Dan: Hi, Brian. Hi. How are you doing? From the Great Lake State, thank you. I would want to know from your guest here what she really sees how they're following the same pattern of "Big Gretch", Gretchen Whitmer, and how she won in her last election. I do know so many people I know in Michigan who are Democrats and Republicans, how much dislike there was for her in some areas, but how much love there is in other areas. In saying that, Macomb County is probably awash for the Democrats. Oakland County, they're going to win it. Wayne County, they're going to win it. Genesee County, Traverse City itself, they'll probably win it but not Grand Traverse.

Where do you see these battles going on, and how close are they aligned to the governor, who we do know was the chair for Biden? I believe that was one of the reasons why he selected her because she knew how to win that type of estate. I would (crosstalk) your opinion on that.

Brian Lehrer: Thank you, Dan. Of course, Gretchen Whitmer considered possible presidential candidate replacement for Biden when that whole thing was in flux and then a possible running mate for Harris. We had callers on this show. You'll be interested to know who said, "Hey, Trump is running such a testosterone-based candidacy, Trump and Vance. Let's have the all-woman ticket when women vote more than men in this country and go for it with Harris/Whitmer." Of course, they didn't go that way, but Gretchen Whitmer is a force, I guess "Big Gretch", as some people, like the caller, refer to her.

Zoe Clark: Yes. Whitmer has definitely become a brand ambassador for the Democratic Party over the past year plus, whether it's formal roles, giving a prime-time speech on the last night of the DNC, to informal roles. You probably, if you watch any late night shows or TikTok, she's all over it because she had a book that came out this summer. The first question, I think, was, what are we seeing parallel in terms of Harris and Whitmer?

I think one of the things that Whitmer is really leaning into, and I should say she always has been, I've covered here her for nearly two decades, is this happy warrior, that she will fight when she needs to but that she is optimistic. I think that there is definitely a sense that that is what Harris is trying to lean into and even using that same language of happy warrior. Whitmer is, as you mentioned, a co-chair. She was co-chair of the Biden/Harris campaign. She is still now co-chair of the Harris-Walz campaign.

When I was talking earlier about this idea of Democrats needing to get out the vote here in Michigan, she is going to be at the forefront of that, traveling around the state, and I should mention traveling around the country doing fundraisers and get out the vote efforts. She's absolutely someone that Democrats are going to utilize in Michigan, and as I said, throughout the country because she has favorability ratings that many Democrats would beg for. [laughs]

Brian Lehrer: A couple of things before we run out of time. Tomorrow night will be the vice presidential candidate debate hosted by CBS. NPR stations will have it as well. You reported last week on what it means to be a Midwestern vice presidential candidate. How would you expect them each as Midwest guys, Vance and Walz, to try to appeal to Michigan voters in Tuesday night's debate? Would that be any different from how Trump and Harris, as coastal people, are campaigning in their debate and elsewhere?

Zoe Clark: The difference, I think, no matter what, is that it can feel a little bit more authentic, just from experiences and as we've, gosh, this summer being this so-called vibe election. You get that Midwestern vibe. Look, I think both of them, if they are looking towards the Midwest, which they should because we know that blue wall plus one electoral vote in Omaha, could really help Harris's to talk about manufacturing, to talk about those auto industry jobs, to talk about labor. I think it would be important for Walz to talk about the fact that he was a union member. I'm actually surprised. We saw Walz here in Michigan a couple of weeks ago, and he was on the west side of the state, in Grand Rapids to Lansing.

I think he needs to go to places that are manufacturing, that have been hit hard. I think we will hear an optimistic tone, much like the tone that Harris continues to try from Governor Walz. I think we'll hear something different from Senator JD Vance, as we know, his experiences growing up, and then the book that he wrote and that he sees it as a very different way, a shattered, somewhat broken dream and that populist tone that America isn't what it once was and that he and Trump can fix it. It's going to be interesting. I think we all joke about Midwestern nice, but I think that's also going to be interesting to see how much they focus on each other versus speaking directly to the audience.

Brian Lehrer: Before you go, I think it's important that we at least mention the post-election period and the possibility of barriers to counting or certifying the vote if Harris wins. Trump tried hard to get Michigan officials to cancel the results of 2020. Is Michigan likely to be that kind of battleground this year?

Zoe Clark: I talked to Chris Thomas last week, who's just this amazing figure. He was Michigan's former elections director for 40 years, worked in both Democratic and Republican administrations. He is really helping out this infrastructure of folks who are, I don't want to be hyperbolic but trying to save democracy. Michigan has a very decentralized way of counting our votes. It's done on the city and county levels. We also have a Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, who has really taken up the mantle of making sure that voting is safe and secure and expanding access to voting. In fact, the Republican Party has sued her a few times.

All of that is to say that it's absolutely concerning with what we've seen over the past few elections, but that, for lack of better terms, there are grownups in the room, and there were four years ago as well, who made the right choices. I don't mean right choices in terms of Democratic or Republican but made the right choices about what needed to happen legally, again, to carry on these democratic institutions in our state.

Brian Lehrer: Zoe Clark, political director at Michigan Public and co-host of the podcast, It's Just Politics. Thank you so much for giving us this much time today.

Zoe Clark: Oh, Brian, it was a pleasure. Thank you.

 

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