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Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer on WNYC. By the way, I should have said when we finished up with Astead Herndon from the Times that we will carry those remarks that we're expecting from President Biden. They say in the eleven o'clock hour. Sometimes these things run really late, but they're saying in the eleven o'clock hour, we will carry it live whenever it happens, even if that's after twelve o'clock during all of it, but they are saying in the eleven o'clock hour, President Biden will address the nation about the election. Now, one election not getting much press, but very interesting this week, was the election for governor of Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico, of course, was thrust into the center of the presidential election after comedian Tony Hinchcliffe called the US territory a floating island of garbage at Trump's Madison Square Garden rally. While Puerto Ricans living on the island can't vote for president, even though they're US citizens, they did vote for governor on election day, in a race that was very different from the usual for Puerto Rico.

Historically, the race for governor on the island has come down to choosing between a pro-statehood or a pro-commonwealth, the current status party. This week, there was a third option on the ballot. The third party, pro-independence candidate, Juan Dalmau. While it looks like Dalmau is going to lose to the pro-statehood Republican and Trump ally, Jenniffer González, his Alianza coalition came in second, making history and changing the conversation on the island.

According to the Puerto Rico Elections Commission, as of Wednesday afternoon, González had 39% of the vote with 91% of the precincts reporting. Dalmau was in second place, with nearly 33% of the vote. Joining us now to discuss all this, and take calls from anybody who votes in Puerto Rico, who's listening right now, or just anybody who has an interest, is Mayra Velez-Serrano, political science professor at the University of Puerto Rico at Rio Piedras. Professor Velez, welcome to WNYC.

Mayra Velez-Serrano: Thank you for having me. It's a pleasure to be here with you guys.

Brian Lehrer: Listeners, we are opening the phones. Anybody listening on the island, who did you vote for for governor and why? What about the referendum? Also on the ballot, again, on the status of Puerto Rico with respect to the United States, or if you're in the New York area, Miami area, anyone else and anywhere else and have connections to the island, whether you voted absentee or you're just following this, what are you hearing? What do you want to say? 212-433-WNYC 212-433-9692. Call or text.

Professor Velez, before we dig into the election results and why Puerto Rico's pro-independence movement is building momentum, talk some, if you would, about the legacy of the two main parties. I mean, for the past seven decades, Puerto Ricans have had the choice between the New Progressive Party and the Popular Democratic Party, and they've divided broadly by the question of the current status, commonwealth status, or statehood. Am I correct?

Mayra Velez-Serrano: Yes, that's correct. That's very unique in Puerto Rican politics, the fact that parties are identified by the issue and not by generally the left or right, Democrat or Republican, how you see in other territories of the United States. Yes, these two parties have had control of the electoral cycle. Our electoral system really, really punishes small parties. Just to give an overview to the listeners, Juan Dalmau, who currently in this election got 364,000 votes, for a total 32%. We're still counting more votes, so that might change in the next day so.

In 2012, he did run for governor as well, and he only obtained 47,000 votes. Barely 2.5% of the vote. We're talking about huge drastic jump in support, from 2012 to now in 2024. There's many things that have happened, and during that time, that has led people to try to punish the main political parties, the PNP and the PPD parties. Yes, I think this makes this election historic. I think qualitatively and quantitatively, our political system is going to change in the near future.

Brian Lehrer: From what I can gather, Dalmau put into the national conversation, or the island conversation in Puerto Rico, not just more centering of the idea of independence, becoming its own country, but also promising to prioritize good governance over the issue of Puerto Rico status one way or another. Those seem like two very, very different things. Is it true that he elevated both those issues?

Mayra Velez-Serrano: Yes, he did. It was very smart from his part. Puerto Rico has a long history of fear of independence, and this has been mostly because the independence movement got a lot of repression during the height of the Cold War. This rhetoric about independence will mean communism, and will mean Cuba and Venezuela, was used by the PNP Party, specifically Jenniffer González, who seems to have won the vote. Yes, he said, "Well, I'm not looking for the independence, I'm just coming here to end with corruption, to administer the money that is sent to Puerto Rico."

It did help him. If you look the difference between the people who voted for him, that previously I said it was over 360,000 people, and the people who voted for independence, that was 280,000. There's a lot of people who voted for him who are not in favor of independence. Actually, a lot of people who favor statehood voted for him. There is a big chunk of the population who was able to distinguish their preferences for the status, for whether Puerto Rico should become a statehood, a state, or become an independent country, and who can govern the island.

That was very successful from his part. Obviously, the campaign was mired, and same thing as the United States, with the fear that if he wins, federal funds will go away, people will lose access to the Social Security, which is not true. This is an acquired right. We all pay Social Security, Medicaid, and Medicare in our paychecks. People were afraid. They were truly afraid that if he won, all these benefits will go away. That led for Jenniffer González to able to mobilize a lot of the electorate, and to go to the polls and vote, and get that one for herself, which is not a big difference between her and Dalmau. It's only 74,000 votes. If you think about it, it's very-- It's a small margin. I think if it wasn't for that campaign based on fear, he would have won easily.

Brian Lehrer: Interesting. We're getting a call from the island. Let's talk to Basilio in Carolina, Puerto Rico. Basilio, you're on WNYC. Hello, from New York.

Basilio Serrano: Hi, and thanks for taking my call. It just so happens that my name is also Serrano.

[laughter]

Basilio Serrano: Let me just make a couple of points. First, there's still 160,000 votes to be counted, so it's still a little premature. There will be a general recount starting next Tuesday, and the results may be somewhat different. The other thing that I just wanted to point out is that a lot of young people who had intentions to vote could not vote because registration for voting was cut, was stopped in September, and a campaign to register young people in high schools ended so that people, again, young people who may have been voters, again, may have not participated.

Now, on top of that, there were incredible lines for voting. A lot of irregularities. Yesterday, a press conference held by the American Civil Liberties Union, recounted some of those problems in getting the vote counted. So, in the end, the results may be somewhat different. There's even 25,000 votes remaining to be counted in the mayoralty race, where the coalition candidate is five points behind the pro-statehood candidate. That's my point.

Brian Lehrer: Yes. All interesting points. Basilio, let me ask you one follow up question. I'm just curious if that comedian slur at the Trump rally about Puerto Rico, since you're there, you know, what we've been hearing is from Puerto Ricans on the mainland. How do people talk about it there? Do you think it affected the vote for governor of Puerto Rico in any way?

Basilio Serrano: It was. I attended the rally, the closing rally for the PIP Alianza, and yes, that issue did surface, and the people were able to connect it to the Republican Party and Jenniffer González, who claims to be a Republican.

Brian Lehrer: Yes, and a Trump ally, I think.

Basilio Serrano: Yes, there were always references, no somos basura, we are not garbage. Those chants were heard over and over again.

Brian Lehrer: Basilio, thank you. Thank you for your call. He mentions, Professor Velez, that a lot of young people may not have been able to register to vote because of the early deadline. We weren't able to find any exit polling on how this race broke down by age, but there has been a lot of reporting indicating that there's been a big generational divide. The older generations remaining loyal to the two traditional parties, and the younger generation going more for that third party, independence and good governance candidates. I saw you quoted in a Washington Post article referring to that cohort of younger frustrated voters as the crisis generation. What does that mean?

Mayra Velez-Serrano: Yes, I think I took that, or I start seeing a very big difference between this generation and my generation, although I'm a Millennial, I'm an older millennial. I think even if we compare with Gen Zs with the United States, they have very similar values, but there's fundamentally differences between Gen Zs in Puerto Rico and Gen Zs in the United States. We're talking about that many of these kids that are 18, 19, they were born when Puerto Rico started its economic recession. We have had economic recession ever since 2006. With a few years after Hurricane Maria in which we saw positive growth thanks to the influx of recovery money.

Besides that, our economy has shrank year after year. On top of that, we see housing becoming more expensive and unaffordable, we see real wages being stagnant, we see a lot of corruption scandals, especially within the PNP Party. Just to give an overview, for example, in during Ricardo Rosselló government, that was during Hurricane Maria and Trump also presidency, we had a Secretary of Education who closed over 438 schools and ended up guilty and federal charges for bribe because in exchange of giving away one of these schools, she got money, and she got a free apartment.

We're talking about this generalized feeling that everything that we had is failing. Our education is failing, our school is failing. They cut the budget for University of Puerto Rico, making it even more inaccessible for the working class. There's no economic growth, there's corruption. There's a generalized feeling that we cannot continue like this. Basilio was right. During the closing of the PIP Party, I think most people, and I went there to that closing as well, and I've been to several closings with different parties, mainly because I'm political scientist, I like to observe, and one of the things that struck me very different in this rally, it was a sense of that we can dream of a different future.

That was very palpable among all the young kids that were there, but there were people from all generations. I think a lot of people who voted historically by other parties also moved to Juan Dalmau. So, there was this sense of, we can do this, we need a change, we cannot continue with the same parties. Even though Juan Dalmau didn't win, I think there is still this sense of hope for a different future.

Brian Lehrer: A few more minutes on the historic election for governor of Puerto Rico this week, with the rise of a candidate and a party that's for independence of the island, though apparently they're coming in second, but a pretty close second. That party did not really have a presence in Puerto Rico before. We're talking a little bit too about repercussions from the Puerto Rican floating island of garbage joke, joke, at the Republican rally for Trump at Madison Square Garden with Mayra Velez-Serrano, political science professor at the University of Puerto Rico at Rio Piedras. Let's take a phone call from Federico, calling from San Juan. Federico, you're on WNYC. Hello.

Federico: Thank you for having me. I live in Astoria, New York, but I just happened to be in San Juan today. So, heard about your discussion, and happy to have an opportunity to chime in.

Brian Lehrer: So glad you're listening down there. What you got?

Federico: Look, the governor of Puerto Rico was elected with 61% of the vote again. There's no runoff in Puerto Rico. She called yesterday on Spanish-language national TV in Puerto Rico, Mitch McConnell a racist. There was a referendum on statehood, where it was actively boycotted by every other non-statehood party, and tens of thousands of ballots were cast blank on purpose. When those are taken into account, statehood only gets 47% of the vote. So there's a majority of the people against statehood, against the statehood governor, and there's an active tax evasion scheme by a local law called Act 22, enabled by Congress.

That affects New Yorkers, because a lot of people leave New York and avoid paying federal and Puerto Rico taxes in the island. The island is the only place in the world where an American can move and not pay any taxes and not lose their passport. A lot of that gets missed because of the language barrier. Puerto Ricans speak Spanish, obviously, the United States is an English speaking country, and Puerto Ricans are US citizens, but we are a nation. That's a subtlety that sometimes is lost for broader American politics.

Brian Lehrer: Federico, I have to leave it there, because it looks like President Biden is going to speak momentarily, addressing the nation about the election results. We've got our eyes on the Rose Garden, where they're all set up. Doesn't mean it's going to happen in 30 seconds, but it might, and it's going to happen soon. So we're going to have to roll with that. I want to get a quick reaction from our guest to what you were saying. That is interesting, that the party that won the election, because there's no runoff, the pro-statehood party, with a governor who's allied with Trump, a majority of the voters did not vote for her, but there's no runoff election.

So with the plurality of 61%, if that's the right number, she wins. We have a related text that says, "It's funny how González ran on pro-statehood, and Mitch McConnell is giving a presser saying now that they have the Senate, there will be no new states, proving once again," according to this texter, "that Republicans don't want Puerto Ricans to be full citizens."

Mayra Velez-Serrano: I agree. That's the irony of these elections. In which Jenniffer González wins, saying that she's going to guarantee statehood, statehood wins as an option as a simple priority. At the meantime, she also supports Trump and the Republican Party, which eliminated statehood from their platform this year, and you have McConnell saying that in the press conference. Very happy that they will not allow any new states. I think this is an opportunity for Juan Dalmau, for the next electoral cycle.

In the meantime, Puerto Ricans will continue its current status and without an option to change it's economic system, without a fundamental change of status with the United States, relationship with the United States.

Brian Lehrer: What's Dalmau, and again, apologies in advance if we get cut off, because we'll go to the president if he starts, but what's Dalmau's argument for independence? One could say, as opposed to statehood, it would be so economically stressing to have to go out on their own, rather than become the 51st state, if that ever became an option.

Mayra Velez-Serrano: Yes, it's ironically, because even though Jenniffer González is a Republican, her argument is that we need federal funds and we need all that money for the economy, which is ironic, right? Because Republicans run in the-- based on the ideal that money from the government will hinder economic growth. The Independence Party argued that our economy needs other sources of growth, including investments from other countries, which we cannot do under the current status.

That we can also take advantage of our position within the Caribbean and be a main exporter to the other island of the Caribbean, which we cannot do right now due to the Jones Act. So, they have a more pro-capital, pro-globalization view than actually Jenniffer González, which is a Republican. I think this is the irony of this situation.

Brian Lehrer: Yes. Before you go, I'll just throw in that one of the local echoes was that Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez posted on her Instagram about this third party coalition, the Independence Coalition, La Alianza, saying it's a, "Movement of anti-corruption candidates. The right-wing Latinos for the Trump candidate is spreading a misinformation campaign that voting for them will cut Puerto Rico from the US and cut benefits." That's a quote from AOC on Instagram. Respond to that, or explain how if they do go independent, how that would not cut benefits from the United States, or funding from the United States.

Mayra Velez-Serrano: Definitely, it will cut many of the funding that comes. I think one of the proposals that the Independence Party have talked about, that independence will have to be gradual, and they use different cases for that. It's true. I think there's a lot of fear of people, especially people that depend heavily from programs like SNAP, Section 8, policy and subsidies, and other governmental funding, that they will not have that under an independence status. This is true. This is a reality we have to talk clear-minded if this is the future that Puerto Rico wants.

This is a discussion that we have not had seriously, and sat down as a collective to talk about, "Okay, what are our real options if statehood is not available?" Especially, because of the Republican Party doesn't want to include it, or admit a new state, what we are going to do if-- Are we going to stay how we are, or are we going to look for an alternative? Are we going to look for some type of true free association, or we going to look for the independence, and what it's going to look like. How our future is going to look like. What are our competitive advantages, especially within our region?

These are very serious discussions. Unfortunately, they're just being captured by the electoral cycle. They talk about them a few months before the election, and then we forget about it, and we continue with this toxic relationship, with this toxic cycle about the future of Puerto Rico.

Brian Lehrer: Yes. Well, if the election results as they appear to be, hold, there's the great irony for Puerto Rico going forward. Now, the referendum on statehood, independence, or commonwealth status, statehood won with 57% of the vote. The Trump-aligned statehood candidate for governor, González, won. Yet Mitch McConnell was out there saying no new states. Somebody should ask Trump, right? If he was aligned with González. You know, Mitch McConnell isn't going to have any power anymore. He's not going to be the majority leader, even though the Senate's in Republican hands now. Maybe Trump will feel he has a debt to pay. Who knows?

Mayra Velez-Serrano: I do want to say something. Kamala Harris, we had this like symbolic vote for the president for the first time, and Kamala Harris did won. I think that was a reaction to that comment of garbage, but also a reaction to what happened after Hurricane Maria. That, for example, we know that Trump withheld a lot of the funding that the Congress approved for the recovery after Maria. We know the amount of tweets that he said, offending Puerto Ricans after Maria. There's this hurt by the Puerto Ricans towards Trump. We saw that in this symbolic vote for the presidency.

However, and this is something that we are working here at UPR. Puerto Ricans are relatively conservative, especially in social issues, issues like abortion. There's an assumption that Puerto Ricans are going to be Democrats through and through, and the data so far that we have collected doesn't show this. Even if Puerto Rico gets submitted, let's say there's a miracle happens in the Republican Party, Puerto Rico becomes the 51st state, it's very unlikely this is going to be a solid blue state.

I think this is something that we are not discussing, and partially because we don't have the data about it, but I think we make a mistake assuming that Puerto Ricans in the island behave electorally the same way as, for example, historically Puerto Ricans in New York have done, that they have aligned themselves strongly with the Democratic Party. We might probably be a purple state. [chuckles] We don't know. Yes, I think there's this mismatch between what we think Puerto Ricans will be if they become a state, and what we see studying the ideology of Puerto Rico.

Brian Lehrer: Mayra Velez-Serrano, political science professor at the University of Puerto Rico, UPR, at Rio Piedras, thank you so much for joining us today. We really, really appreciated the conversation.

Mayra Velez-Serrano: My pleasure.

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